If Brock Bowers is the pick at 6, how would you feel? Especially if Nabers or Odunze were still on the draft board. Daniel Jeremiah has Bowers as the 7th best player in the draft, even PFF has Bowers as the 7th best player in the draft, but I would be very against the pick. Daniel says Bowers will have a George Kittle type career, but at 6 for me, feels like the Barkley pick all over again? Am I wrong?
A George Kittle type player would be a great type of player to have, but Kittle was drafted in round 5 with the 146th pick. And what ever happened to Kyle Pitts? 4th overall pick?
If I had to choose between Bowers or Terrion Arnold with the 6th overall pick, I rather have Arnold. Draft an early TE is probably almost dead last for the team need right now IMO.
According to Daniel Jeremiah:
Bowers is an undersized tight end with elite speed, strength and playmaking ability. He lined up all over the field at Georgia -- in-line, on the wing, split out and even at running back. He is very sudden in his release, and he uses his upper-body strength to chuck defenders when pressed at the line of scrimmage. He catches a lot of quick-hitters in the flat and he's a maniac on screens. He attacks the ball in the air and is quick to transition up the field. He has the speed to pull away, but his greatest asset is his tackle-breaking power. He runs through contact without gearing down. He is an effective run blocker when he can get his hands on opponents, but he will get pressed out by longer-armed edge rushers. Overall, Bowers reminds me a lot of George Kittle, and I see him having a similar impact in the NFL.
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-3-0
and PFF
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-profiles-top-200-draft-prospects
He's not really a TE...more like a ruggedly built WR. He's a ball magnet and can get to any part of the field and muscles every ball away in tight situations, and has really soft hands that doesn't drop balls thrown at him or even in his general direction as he tracks a ball as good as any receiver in the NFL. He has 4.4 speed (almost identical to Nabors) to take it to the house whenever he touches the ball and is a son of a bitch to tackle. Even used as a decoy, he can wreak havoc on the defense, because he draws double coverage. Regardless, it's a mistake to think of him as a TE. He's a muscular receiver and an offensive juggernaut that doesn't really fit neatly into any traditional position. Doesn't have a lanky build like a traditional WR, and too small to fit into the mold of a traditional TE. He can line up anywhere, play fullback, take short passes, mid-field passes, and can even play the X receiver...not a one-trick pony. Call him whatever you want, he's a receiver with a winner's mindset, who runs great routes and catches the ball in or out of traffic
Personally, I'd take Harrison first and foremost, then Odunze, then flip a coin between Nabors and Bowers, with a slight nod to Nabors. I suspect the coaches and scouts are much more informed as to what he can do compared to the other receivers on the board and how he'd fit into the overall scheme for which the team is building. I won't be disappointed if the Giants draft him and will be curious what their plans are for him. Some team will take him and I hope it's not in our division
If we don't go QB, and Nabers/Harrison Jr/Odunze is on the board, we take one of them. Anything else is a head scratcher. I'd want Nabers but Odunze is far from being a consolation prize; I see him like a Mike Evans type.
I'd take Bowers over Nabers but no Odunze.
Nauseous, answering the question succinctly.
If you want detail, well it will mean we do not understand the history of supposed unicorn TEs taken high R1, positional value/resource allocation or roster construction.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 06, 2024, 06:06:59 PMI'd take Bowers over Nabers but no Odunze.
Jclay am I understanding correctly you would take
Odunze first
Bowers 2nd
Nabers 3rd
I would not take Bowers over any one of the top-3 WRs each of whom provides better value in meeting a major need.
Cheers!
Terrible. Awful. With the talent that is available at 6, guaranteed- that matches up with critical team needs - picking a TE would be ridiculous. :ok:
What does our existing pass attack need? A huge threat down the middle or at outside the hashmarks? Which will help Hyatt and Robinson the most? That's the Bowers versus X debate to me.
I'd break my TV.
Bad. The draft is about more than just picking players. If you take, eg, Odunze you get a bargain receiver for up to 5 years. If you take Bowers you get a mid to high priced TE for up to 5 years. One of the ways smart teams manage their CAP is not taking low value positions with high draft picks. Which is why no matter how excellent Barkley was (and he was nowhere near as excellent as we hoped he'd be, but that's hindsight and not relevant to my point) it was colossally stupid to use a #2 pick on him. I've said before, I wouldn't take Jim Brown with the #2 pick under the current rookie scale rules. Precisely because the rookie scale doesn't take into account positional value, and positional value is real.
This teams need top shelf talent producing at a high level. Our shelves are empty.
If Bowers gets us 100 receptions for 1,000 yards and 7 TDs, he was worth it at 6.
I am not saying draft him but this pick has to be highly productive. I'm f yea, I won't care who it is.
Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 07, 2024, 03:31:50 AMBad. The draft is about more than just picking players. If you take, eg, Odunze you get a bargain receiver for up to 5 years. If you take Bowers you get a mid to high priced TE for up to 5 years. One of the ways smart teams manage their CAP is not taking low value positions with high draft picks. Which is why no matter how excellent Barkley was (and he was nowhere near as excellent as we hoped he'd be, but that's hindsight and not relevant to my point) it was colossally stupid to use a #2 pick on him. I've said before, I wouldn't take Jim Brown with the #2 pick under the current rookie scale rules. Precisely because the rookie scale doesn't take into account positional value, and positional value is real.
My main question here is how good you view Bowers to be. If he's just a really, really good tight end then he's probably not worth such a high pick. But if you view him as somebody who can give you even Travis Kelce level production then the WR vs. TE concept just becomes a label. At the end of the day, the only relevant question is who will provide you the most production between the players available to you.
Basically, the TE vs. WR distinction matters for things like fantasy football, franchise tags and pro bowl voting and the franchise tag part probably provides financial benefit to the team. On the field, whether you're a tight end or wide receiver is largely irrelevant.
Quote from: jgrangers2 on April 07, 2024, 11:02:27 AMMy main question here is how good you view Bowers to be. If he's just a really, really good tight end then he's probably not worth such a high pick. But if you view him as somebody who can give you even Travis Kelce level production then the WR vs. TE concept just becomes a label. At the end of the day, the only relevant question is who will provide you the most production between the players available to you.
I agree. You take the best player (with some mindfulness to positional value). If your assessment of this guy is that he can be the next Gronk/Kelce, then it may not be an unreasonable pick depending on your precise assessment of the alternatives. If it's very close, then I would lean on positional value and need, and that points to receiver. But I agree that it should not be automatic.
Hard to know what is going through the minds of Schoen and his insiders, but I suspect they are deep diving into character traits on all of them. They might pass on one of the top guys because they know he smokes weed and tends to party too much...or simply doesn't have the right type of personality that fits neatly with the team they are trying to build. They've all got tremendous athletic skills, but what kind of person are they going to be once they're millionaires and having cameras and mikes shoved in their face wherever they go? Are they "football first and foremost", or will they be "soaking up the glamour and non-football activities that have become available"?
Interestingly, the Giants have shown zero interest in Bowers...according to media reports and player visits. That could be telling in itself as the clandestine nature of Schoen is highly secretive, and he doesn't give away any clues as to what he's thinking
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on April 07, 2024, 11:12:18 AMHard to know what is going through the minds of Schoen and his insiders, but I suspect they are deep diving into character traits on all of them. They might pass on one of the top guys because they know he smokes weed and tends to party too much...or simply doesn't have the right type of personality that fits neatly with the team they are trying to build. They've all got tremendous athletic skills, but what kind of person are they going to be once they're millionaires and having cameras and mikes shoved in their face wherever they go? Are they "football first and foremost", or will they be "soaking up the glamour and non-football activities that have become available"?
Interestingly, the Giants have shown zero interest in Bowers...according to media reports and player visits. That could be telling in itself as the clandestine nature of Schoen is highly secretive, and he doesn't give away any clues as to what he's thinking
Ric, if Calib Williams somehow fell to the Cards at four, do you think Schoen moves up to take him if Daniels, Maye and JJ are gone?
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 07, 2024, 11:27:51 AMRic, if Calib Williams somehow fell to the Cards at four, do you think Schoen moves up to take him if Daniels, Maye and JJ are gone?
I haven't a clue. The more I study, the more I realize how much I don't know. Personally, I don't think the Giants are QB shopping and will be more surprised than anyone on this board if we go QB in the first. I think they have more faith in Jones than much of the fan base and are interested primarily in getting a receiving target for DJ who will be a long term solution for the air game. Whatever the case, I'm pretty sure they want a day 1 starter who will be a starter for the next half decade. But again, I simply do not know what's going through their minds, which is comforting in its own way...to me anyway :-??
Gronk was a second rounder and Kelce was a third rounder. Just sayin'.
Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 07, 2024, 12:31:38 PMGronk was a second rounder and Kelce was a third rounder. Just sayin'.
And LaPorta (second rd), Schultz(4 rd), Knox (3 rd), Andrews (3rd), Hockenson & Kincaid (late 1st)
Hard pass for me
Quote from: Rosehill Jimmy on April 07, 2024, 12:44:12 PMAnd LaPorta (second rd), Schultz(4 rd), Knox (3 rd), Andrews (3rd), Hockenson & Kincaid (late 1st)
Hard pass for me
And Kyle Pitts was taken with the #4 pick, and has hardly lived up to the pick. And was more highly rated than Bowers is, going into HIS draft.
None of the above examples mean Bowers will be a bad pick.
To be clear, I'm not advocating taking Bowers. Based on my own observations and sense of value, I would prefer any of the receivers over him. What I am not on board with is dismissing the idea of picking him completely out of hand, based purely on his being a TE and the others being receivers. If Schoen and his scouts rated Bowers as a distinctly better prospect than the WRs available when they pick, and they aren't going with a different position, then I would not want them to hold back and go with the inferior prospect in this case based purely on position. That is all.
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on April 07, 2024, 12:11:33 PMI haven't a clue. The more I study, the more I realize how much I don't know. Personally, I don't think the Giants are QB shopping and will be more surprised than anyone on this board if we go QB in the first. I think they have more faith in Jones than much of the fan base and are interested primarily in getting a receiving target for DJ who will be a long term solution for the air game. Whatever the case, I'm pretty sure they want a day 1 starter who will be a starter for the next half decade. But again, I simply do not know what's going through their minds, which is comforting in its own way...to me anyway :-??
You just said something interesting. A QB has a shelf life of 10-15 years (To Phil Simm's point), an OT about 8-12 years, and a WR about 5-6 years. There are exceptions of course. The Giants rarely pick this high although more so of late. The last three first-round WR's picked by the Giants were Toney-20, Odell-12 and Hilliard-8 in '97. Interestingly enough, that '97 Draft had one of the worst QB classes of all time. Jake Plummer was the 42nd pick as the first QB taken. They picked Mike Cherry in the 6th Round. Danny Kanell did ok for them in '97. My point is that '97 was the only year they didn't have a Franchise QB when they drafted a WR in the first round. fwiw
Edit_ Hakeem Nicks at 29.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 07, 2024, 01:04:21 PMNone of the above examples mean Bowers will be a bad pick.
To be clear, I'm not advocating taking Bowers. Based on my own observations and sense of value, I would prefer any of the receivers over him. What I am not on board with is dismissing the idea of picking him completely out of hand, based purely on his being a TE and the others being receivers. If Schoen and his scouts rated Bowers as a distinctly better prospect than the WRs available when they pick, and they aren't going with a different position, then I would not want them to hold back and go with the inferior prospect in this case based purely on position. That is all.
Interesting! So are these the same thoughts you had about Saquon being selected #2 overall? Or do you just feel differently about the TE position than you do RB?
For me personally, a TE at 6, no matter the prospect, is a waste. At least until one of these uber athletic, generational TE prospects actually produces like that on the field.
Quote from: PSUBeirut on April 07, 2024, 01:31:16 PMInteresting! So are these the same thoughts you had about Saquon being selected #2 overall? Or do you just feel differently about the TE position than you do RB?
For me personally, a TE at 6, no matter the prospect, is a waste. At least until one of these uber athletic, generational TE prospects actually produces like that on the field.
Actually yeah, I do feel differently about TE than I do RB. First, TE is a more expensive position than RB in terms of average salary. It is not as expensive as receiver, which I very clearly alluded to in my post, but it is pricier than RB. Secondly, the league is a passing league, so if you do happen to have a weapon like Gronk, Kelce, Gates etc it has a greater impact on an offense in today's NFL than having a Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor does.
I understand TE is not as valuable a position as receiver, QB, OT, and CB. I have also made it clear (twice now) that I am not advocating for taking Bowers. Nor do I think the Giants will. I was simply highlighting the low probability scenario where they have him graded as a much better prospect than the other options they're considering with that pick. My own personal opinion is that he is not a superior prospect to the big three receivers, but unlike some here who clearly believe they are better talent evaluators than NFL front offices, I am happy to defer to Schoen and his team on this matter.
Would I be happy with the pick if they took him? Since I am hoping we somehow get a QB the front office likes, and since I like all three of these receivers quite a bit as well as Joe Alt, probably not, but I'll make up my mind more firmly about that once I have watched him play for a year or two.
The best teams in the league currently have phenomenal TEs 49ers, Eagles, KC, Ravens etc... so if you think there's a generational TE there, why wouldn't you take them? Having a great TE allows you to do so much with your Wrs.
Let's not forget all the round 1 WR busts or later round WR successes
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 07, 2024, 04:09:00 PMThe best teams in the league currently have phenomenal TEs 49ers, Eagles, KC, Ravens etc... so if you think there's a generational TE there, why wouldn't you take them? Having a great TE allows you to do so much with your Wrs.
It's interesting that the only TE they've had in for a visit is Theo Johnson (that I've seen listed anyway). A big and fast traditional type TE who show exceptional athleticism at the combine
(https://i.postimg.cc/rmRxjgxX/TE-Ranking.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/1nP85GvJ)
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on April 07, 2024, 07:31:12 PMIt's interesting that the only TE they've had in for a visit is Theo Johnson (that I've seen listed anyway). A big and fast traditional type TE who show exceptional athleticism at the combine
(https://i.postimg.cc/rmRxjgxX/TE-Ranking.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/1nP85GvJ)
I believe Theo will be a better pro than he was a college player. IMO he was misused in the offense last year and should have been a more-featured weapon. I could see him being one of those mid-round gems for someone. He's got a lot of great tools and good intangibles as well.
Quote from: PSUBeirut on April 07, 2024, 01:31:16 PMInteresting! So are these the same thoughts you had about Saquon being selected #2 overall? Or do you just feel differently about the TE position than you do RB?
For me personally, a TE at 6, no matter the prospect, is a waste. At least until one of these uber athletic, generational TE prospects actually produces like that on the field.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 07, 2024, 02:23:12 PMActually yeah, I do feel differently about TE than I do RB. First, TE is a more expensive position than RB in terms of average salary. It is not as expensive as receiver, which I very clearly alluded to in my post, but it is pricier than RB. Secondly, the league is a passing league, so if you do happen to have a weapon like Gronk, Kelce, Gates etc it has a greater impact on an offense in today's NFL than having a Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor does.
I understand TE is not as valuable a position as receiver, QB, OT, and CB. I have also made it clear (twice now) that I am not advocating for taking Bowers. Nor do I think the Giants will. I was simply highlighting the low probability scenario where they have him graded as a much better prospect than the other options they're considering with that pick. My own personal opinion is that he is not a superior prospect to the big three receivers, but unlike some here who clearly believe they are better talent evaluators than NFL front offices, I am happy to defer to Schoen and his team on this matter.
Would I be happy with the pick if they took him? Since I am hoping we somehow get a QB the front office likes, and since I like all three of these receivers quite a bit as well as Joe Alt, probably not, but I'll make up my mind more firmly about that once I have watched him play for a year or two.
All good. I respect that. Just found it interesting that almost the exact same (opposite) verbiage was used by folks who were 100% against taking a RB that high - ie, our GM (and the vast majority of NFL folks, draftniks, etc.) considered Barkley to be the top or at least top 3 overall prospect in that draft, regardless of position. So when you say "I would not want them to hold back and go with the inferior prospect in this case based purely on position." it piqued my interest- as many folks who didn't want Saquon at #2 used the opposite of this logic in their arguments- ie, that the GM SHOULD draft an inferior prospect on their board solely based on position.
Me, personally- I don't think either a TE --OR-- a RB should ever be taken that high- And I actually feel more strongly on the TE piece than the RB- as long as the RB is a multi-dimensional threat....because they're gonna touch the ball a whole lot more than a TE ever would.
Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 07, 2024, 12:31:38 PMGronk was a second rounder and Kelce was a third rounder. Just sayin'.
Part of this concept is self selection. Since few tight ends get drafted in the first, most of the great ones are going to come from later rounds. A lot of wide receivers get drafted early and yet 4 of the 7 1st or 2nd team all pro wide receivers were drafted outside the first round and two were drafted in the 5th. And that doesn't include others like Davante Adams (2nd), Cooper Kupp (3rd) and Stefon Diggs (5th) who became top tier WR from outside the 1st round.
What it comes down to is simply what level of production you can get from Bowers. If you think he can produce like a Travis Kelce (i.e. WR1 level production) then the fact that he's labeled a tight end shouldn't matter. Once they're on the field, they're all just eligibile receivers.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 07, 2024, 04:09:00 PMThe best teams in the league currently have phenomenal TEs 49ers, Eagles, KC, Ravens etc... so if you think there's a generational TE there, why wouldn't you take them? Having a great TE allows you to do so much with your Wrs.
Personally, I'm skeptical of the label generational. The last time I heard a player referred to as such, he was drafted #2 overall and recently signed a FA contract with a division foe. He had also been touched by the hand of God.
Look at the TEs drafted in the first round in the last 20+ years. Assuming those drafted by their teams in the top 10 were viewed by some in the front office as generational or a least very good, we have Pitts (#4), Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow(both #6), Hockensen (#8) and Eric Ebron (#10). After that, some had nice careers (Shockey, Njoku, Olsen for example) but the rest were meh.
No one doubts the impact a really good TE can have on an offense but the question is taking one at #6. With regard to the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs et al their TEs were round 2 or later. Plus, these guys also find themselves in offenses with some combination of good QB play, other threats on the field and excellent coaching.
Again, Bowers at 6 is the one choice I would not be happy with. I might not throw the remote but it could be the coup de Grace on 63 years as a season ticket holder
I'll also add- I'm not sure it does much good to bring guys like Kelce, Gates, or Gronk into this particular conversation. In that one sentence you are listing 3 of the top 4 pass-catching TEs of ALL TIME (at least IMO- those 3 + Tony G). I mean, of course it would be nice to get a HALL OF FAME tight end in rounds 2-3+.
Here's the funny thing though- not a single TE drafted in the first round in the last 24 years has come even close to those players: https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/gallery/nfl-draft-falcons-tight-end-kyle-pitts-hayden-hurst-atlanta/ .
So yeah, hard pass for me on any tight end at 6, in the top 15, or maybe even all the way through round 1.
Shelf life matters in this discussion too, at least for me it does. Tight ends are generally still in their primes into their early 30s if not mid 30s. RBs peak at 24/25 and start declining at 27/28, if not younger than that (see Zeke and arguably Barkley). Very few are still materially additive (or even in the league) at 30. They also have a very high injury rate, making the committee approach more sensible (hence why not using high picks or big contracts on any single one player makes sense at this position).
The RB piece is a bit off topic as far as this thread goes though, so I'll leave it there.
The funny part is the one guy who is generational who has probably never been given that label is TJ Watt.
I've heard things like "he's the best WR in the draft in a GREAT wr draft".
I cant say i'd love a TE at 6, but he gets that "generational talent" tag thrown around a bit. look, if the guy winds up being the next kelce or kittle, hes EVERY bit worth the 6th overall pick. if hes the next evan engram, we have yet another huge setback.
I'd be very cautiously optimistic. I think we have bigger needs. We've had some decent tight ends and never found a way to maximize their ability. He would probably he a waste here, a la saquon. Get a true #1 receiver (odunze), a qb (still wouldnt be my favorite but hey you gotta swing for the fences with qbs), or some more oline help. These are all more important than a TE that isnt known for being a complete TE.
https://x.com/AlbertBreer/status/1778115435096895847
https://x.com/The33rdTeamFB/status/1778126092496437611
If the Giants draft Bowers at 6, they can come back and still get an X WR1 in the 2nd round. Add to that a RB in a later round then the Giants will look materially improved at skill positions on offense. If the new OL coach improves the OL play, the offense may look completely different than in 2023. If DJ fails in 2024, look at what the next rookie QB would have to work with.
I would not be happy. Feel like the big prospect TE's never live up to potential.
Quote from: coggs on April 12, 2024, 11:11:42 AMI would not be happy. Feel like the big prospect TE's never live up to potential.
I think you are right when the talk is about physicals such as height/size or speed. That's where Kyle Pitts or Vernon Davis types come up a bit short. TEs whose skills are great hands, tough running after the catch, etc. are usually the ones who live up to it. That's more the Bowers, Shockey types.
This is why I don't get the "Bowers at 6" love. The comp people keep throwing around is Kittle. Which, to me, is being generous to Bowers and would represent a best-case scenario.
So let's continue to be generous and say he has a 50-50 shot at achieving the Kittle comp. Kittle's career averages are 65 catches, 900 yards, and 5 TDs a year. Those are not #6 pick numbers.
If I'm picking someone that high, I want someone with Jar'Marr Chase's numbers - 90 catches, 1,230 yards, and 10 TDs a year. And yes, I get they're different positions. But the point is that Nabers and / or Odunze will be there and offer Chase-level production.
Drafting Bowers that high would be a colossal mistake.
Quote from: Stringer Bell on April 12, 2024, 12:05:54 PMThis is why I don't get the "Bowers at 6" love. The comp people keep throwing around is Kittle. Which, to me, is being generous to Bowers and would represent a best-case scenario.
So let's continue to be generous and say he has a 50-50 shot at achieving the Kittle comp. Kittle's career averages are 65 catches, 900 yards, and 5 TDs a year. Those are not #6 pick numbers.
If I'm picking someone that high, I want someone with Jar'Marr Chase's numbers - 90 catches, 1,230 yards, and 10 TDs a year. And yes, I get they're different positions. But the point is that Nabers and / or Odunze will be there and offer Chase-level production.
Drafting Bowers that high would be a colossal mistake.
This is where I stand. If you think his upside is George Kittle, he's not worth it. If you think his upside is Travis Kelce then there's a convo to be had.
Quote from: jgrangers2 on April 12, 2024, 12:45:34 PMThis is where I stand. If you think his upside is George Kittle, he's not worth it. If you think his upside is Travis Kelce then there's a convo to be had.
Agree. And here is my disconnect- no sane person on the planet should ever mention a TE prospect as having a Travis Kelce (or Antonio Gates or Rob Gronkowsi) ceiling. Kelce is the GOAT and the other 2, IMO, are 2 of the next best 3 tight ends of ALL TIME. No one could or should project a prospect to be in the top 5 of their position of all time....regardless of position.
Bowers might be good, he might be great, he also might be like every other TE drafted in the first round this century- nothing special.
Quote from: PSUBeirut on April 12, 2024, 12:52:05 PMAgree. And here is my disconnect- no sane person on the planet should ever mention a TE prospect as having a Travis Kelce (or Antonio Gates or Rob Gronkowsi) ceiling. Kelce is the GOAT and the other 2, IMO, are 2 of the next best 3 tight ends of ALL TIME. No one could or should project a prospect to be in the top 5 of their position of all time....regardless of position.
Bowers might be good, he might be great, he also might be like every other TE drafted in the first round this century- nothing special.
Right. And if this draft didn't have three elite wide receiver prospects, there may be a different discussion because he may legitimately be a top 2 or 3 pass catcher in most classes, but having MHJ, Nabers and Odunze has to change the narrative around a guy like Bowers.