Barkley rejected 2nd Contract Offer Worth up to $14M

[True Blue]

I don't think I can prove explosiveness with actual stats. I think it should be obvious Bark is just a more explosive player. When I watch Jacobs I look at a pretty slow running back who is looking to initiate contact. He gets big gains when defenses just don't want to tackle him. I doubt that would work for anyone except a team that is playing a bunch of meaningless games whose records are .333

And I am checking out of this discussion. it is obvious you have a bone to pick with me and I don't want to get suspended.

It can't be proven, because it isn't true. There are plenty of stats that can prove explosiveness

"Because its obvious" lol

Have a good evening and weekend   

[Fletch]

What this have to do with the NY Giants, or Saquon Barkley? He may want CMC money, but them trading for CMC or "why they want him" is completely irrelevant to the topic.

Who cares whether they win a championship or not? (the 9ers, that is)

I think it is relevant to the whole "well running backs are just not important enough to spend x dollars on".  And the "no teams who are actual contenders pay running backs" Running backs do not win championships any more / lethal passing attacks do.

Well the 9ers are contenders and spent on a running back and they even traded for him.

[True Blue]

I think it is relevant to the whole "well running backs are just not important enough to spend x dollars on".  And the "no teams who are actual contenders pay running backs" Running backs do not win championships any more / lethal passing attacks do.

Well the 9ers are contenders and spent on a running back and they even traded for him.

Didn't you just check out of the conversation?

And I am confused, did the 49ers win a Super Bowl with McCaffrey? Did they win one yet with Shanahan or any of his fantastic run based offenses? I don't think they did, so while they are a contender, they still have not won with an expensive RB.

They also got solid play from Purdy, and have Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle, along with a fantastic defense.

Purdy was a big reason to their success in the second half of the season. He filled in admirably when their other guys went down, and played just as good if not a little better than Jimmy or Trey did beforehand.

[DaveBrown74]

YPC and yards stats is not what explosive is. Barkley has the potential to take it to the house on nearly every carry. When he is on you can expect a 40 yard run from him. That is not the same thing as consistently getting 4 yards a carry and getting a lot of hand offs per game thereby inflating your rushing yards per game. Ditto for Chubb.

Barkley was less explosive last year than he was in the early part of his career. Look at yards after contact, 20-plus rushes, rush attempts per broken tackle, etc. It's very evident in the numbers, but you could also see it just watching it. He had an excellent season last year, and I am in no way arguing otherwise. But you could see that he was not quite the same player he was before all the injuries, and even if you want to dig in and disagree with that, what you can't rationally disagree with is that he is now passing through the average plateau age for running backs and most certainly will have past it in 2024.

I'm not saying they should definitely get rid of him. But to just mindlessly give him whatever he wants does not seem in the team's best interests either. And I haven't even brought up the durability factor, which to me is also a hugely important point in this discussion.

[Rambo89]

I think it is relevant to the whole "well running backs are just not important enough to spend x dollars on".  And the "no teams who are actual contenders pay running backs" Running backs do not win championships any more / lethal passing attacks do.

Well the 9ers are contenders and spent on a running back and they even traded for him.

49'ers were contenders long before they traded for a RB.

[AZGiantFan]

If were going to be sticklers then let me ask this: Why would the 9ers want Mccaff -- who I think Bark is looking at in terms of money for comps-- if you are only going to win a championship with really good passing attacks? Why would they waste money on Mccaff? I am sure no one can deny they are a good team and a contender.

Because McCaffrey was dirt cheap to them because Carolina had to swallow the hit from the signing bonus.  His CAP hits for SF were $690,000 in 2022 and $3,424,000 in 2023.  Only then are there 2 $14,000,000 years for 2024 and 2025, with not much guaranteed.  They can get out after 2023 with only an $8 million in dead money.  The total value if he stays all four years with the 49ers is about 40,000,000 over 4 years, with not much of it guaranteed.  The 16 AAV of his original Carolina contrac has nothing to do with SF.  The reality is his 49er AAV is about $10 million, with some relatively easy outs along the way.

[Jclayton92]

If anyone wants Barkley to get paid or better yet wants this organization to pay him ridiculous money then you should really dive into the analytics to form an actual opinion one way or another.

Forgetting for a moment that no team has ever "won" cap wise or on the field with a RB on a 2nd contract let's look at the numbers from just the 1st stats based site I went to. I'll explain what each stat means from their glossary and then where Barkley ranks.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2022

First up is Success Rate- "This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more."

Succes rate Barkley was ranked 30th among RBs with a 48% rate.

"Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here."

DYAR- Barkley ranks 13th among RBs with a 108
YAR- Barkley ranks 20th with 102

"The next statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here."

"The simple version: DYAR means a running back with more total value. DVOA means a running back with more value per play."

DVOA- Barkley ranks 21st with 0.2%

VOA- Barkley ranks 23rd with -0.2%

"Effective Yards (EYds) translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. Effective Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR."

EYards- Barkley ranks 5th with 1,229

So Barkley placed high in DYAR and EYAR but was virtually a backup player in almost every other category.

The Modern NFL teams win playoffs and super bowls with a cheap or top 5 QB, a rotation of solid/cheap backs, 1 elite receiving weapon, +2 good/great secondary weapons, and a good defense with 2+ elite pieces.

Barkley basically led the league in drops or came close to it. Why tie that much capital into one oft-injured player when you can replicate his production with 2 mid round or cheap RBs that you can pickup anywhere. KCs RB was a 7th rd rookie.

[Painter]

Whether or not the Giants quote analytics to Barkley and Miale, they will pay him what they believe he's can contribute to a winning Giants Offense this year and somewhat beyond.

All the leverage is with the Giants whether he chooses to play with the tag for say $3 million less than otherwise as he still must do everything he can to establish his worth to the Giants and/or to another team as the Giants can tag him again next year and indeed for less than he asking right now.

What it comes down to is not lists of analytics but how important do the Giants view Barley to the success of the Daniel Jones-led "improved passing" Offense, and how much premium are they willing to structure and pay out in a face-saving process to be determined sometime in next 2 months as fact not breathless, hand wringing BS.

Cheers!

[kartanoman]

Didn't you just check out of the conversation?

And I am confused, did the 49ers win a Super Bowl with McCaffrey? Did they win one yet with Shanahan or any of his fantastic run based offenses? I don't think they did, so while they are a contender, they still have not won with an expensive RB.

They also got solid play from Purdy, and have Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle, along with a fantastic defense.

Purdy was a big reason to their success in the second half of the season. He filled in admirably when their other guys went down, and played just as good if not a little better than Jimmy or Trey did beforehand.

You know, True Blue, there's a good chance the answer might have been "yes" if not for Purdy's freak elbow injury which effectively ended that contest. While your bottom line statement is correct, the manner that championship game played out was the damndest of damned shames and McCaffrey, in spite of that, got the game to 7-7 before it got completely out of hand. So, with all the respect I have for you, I have to take exception to the context of your statement. The 49ers were the hottest team in the NFL going into that game and surely didn't lose it because of McCaffrey. On the other hand, he was very much the catalyst they needed, at the time Purdy was getting comfortable behind center, when they went on their winning streak.

The bottom line is the 49ers were very much in position to go the distance. Whether or not they have an expensive/impact RB on the team has neither been proven/disproven to factor whether a team wins it all.

That could bode well for Barkley and the Giants.

Peace!