Big Blue Huddle

Evan Neal opted not to participate in any of the testing.   There was a video of him jumping on a box that got people excited about his athleticism.  Neal's first two years in the NFL showed he has athletic deficiencies.   It's likely that if Neal had participated in the Combine, those issues would have been identified.

The testing confirms or disputes what you see on film.  There is real value in that. 

I don't recall anyone suggesting that the Combine is meaningless. Be that as it may, however, don't you think of it's as a bit of stretch to suggest that the Combine is a "failsafe" should all the other evaluations and assessment of the player prove to have been wrong? That's always the issue with generalizations. If that was anything more than an exception equals rule fancy, we can be pretty sure that full, or at least extensive, Combine participation would be mandatory. Ne c'est pas?

Cheers!

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 27, 2024, 08:37:20 AMEvan Neal opted not to participate in any of the testing.   There was a video of him jumping on a box that got people excited about his athleticism.  Neal's first two years in the NFL showed he has athletic deficiencies.   It's likely that if Neal had participated in the Combine, those issues would have been identified.

The testing confirms or disputes what you see on film.  There is real value in that. 

Rich - I for one was one of those people who saw that video and said, "Whoa."  That is not an easy thing to do.  I don't think he trained for that to avoid the Combine.  The Combine is important.  Very important.

One thing I will say about Neal is that I am still not sure if his problem is lateral quickness/speed or if he does not react quickly enough when the ball is hiked.  Either would cause him to be late to getting to the ideal position to block the edge.  Still trying to figure it out with him.  It may be a combo of the two.

Quote from: Painter on February 27, 2024, 09:31:36 AMI don't recall anyone suggesting that the Combine is meaningless. Be that as it may, however, don't you think of it's as a bit of stretch to suggest that the Combine is a "failsafe" should all the other evaluations and assessment of the player prove to have been wrong? That's always the issue with generalizations. If that was anything more than an exception equals rule fancy, we can be pretty sure that full, or at least extensive, Combine participation would be mandatory. Ne c'est pas?

Cheers!

To the issue of meaningless:  How often have we heard the Combine drills and tests be dismissed as "just the underwear Olympics"?

To your question in bold:  I have listened to countless former NFL scouts and GMs talk about the Combine, over the years.  Two things are universal in their commentary of the Combine:

1)  The most important part of the Combine is the medical exams

2) The drills and testing are intended to confirm what they have seen on tape.  If a player performs better or worse than what was expected (based on tape), that player is reevaluated.  So yes, NFL teams do treat the Combine as a bit of a failsafe. 

@kingm56

So the combine reveals something that years of game tape never showed?   

Quote from: T200 on February 27, 2024, 11:49:00 AMSo the combine reveals something that years of game tape never showed?   

Remember CB Bryon Jones?  He had the Combine performance for the ages, and in round one by the Cowboys (ended up having a pretty good career)

QuotePrior to the NFL Scouting Combine, Jones was ranked the 25th best cornerback prospect in the draft by NFL.com

QuoteAt the conclusion of the pre-draft process, Jones was projected to be a first round pick by NFL draft experts and scouts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byron_Jones_(American_football)#:~:text=At%20the%20conclusion%20of%20the,NFL%20draft%20experts%20and%20scouts.

The Combine has helped and hurt certain players. This year the QB competition at that second level is going to be the case this year. Looking forward to Saturday.

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 27, 2024, 12:03:15 PMRemember CB Bryon Jones?  He had the Combine performance for the ages, and in round one by the Cowboys (ended up having a pretty good career)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byron_Jones_(American_football)#:~:text=At%20the%20conclusion%20of%20the,NFL%20draft%20experts%20and%20scouts.

Too much emphasis is placed on it and the results. Talk about a small sample size versus a players entire collegiate body of work.

To me, it's ridiculous to project how a player will do based on how he performs at the combine. He could have an off-the-charts day, a la Byron Jones, or he could tank. Neither one of those outcomes should outweight what that player put on film for his 2-4 year career. Talk about recency bias.

If "what have you done for me lately?" was an event, it would be called the NFL Combine and Draft.

Quote from: T200 on February 27, 2024, 12:47:45 PMToo much emphasis is placed on it and the results. Talk about a small sample size versus a players entire collegiate body of work.

To me, it's ridiculous to project how a player will do based on how he performs at the combine. He could have an off-the-charts day, a la Byron Jones, or he could tank. Neither one of those outcomes should outweight what that player put on film for his 2-4 year career. Talk about recency bias.

If "what have you done for me lately?" was an event, it would be called the NFL Combine and Draft.

The medical information and ability to conduct face-to-face 'interviews' are useful; it's also useful to evaluate players returning from injuries.  However, in the modern NFL, the importance of the combine is vastly overstated by some fans; to your point, teams should be able decipher any players' athletic abilities from 2-4 years of game tape, or live scouting.  It also shouldn't be lost on fans that fewer-and-fewer top prospects choose to participate in the combine, which hasn't hindered thier draft status.  In fact, the combine, in it's current presentation, is marketed towards the fans, and is no longer a key aperture for finalizing draft boards.

Quote from: T200 on February 27, 2024, 12:47:45 PMToo much emphasis is placed on it and the results. Talk about a small sample size versus a players entire collegiate body of work.

To me, it's ridiculous to project how a player will do based on how he performs at the combine. He could have an off-the-charts day, a la Byron Jones, or he could tank. Neither one of those outcomes should outweight what that player put on film for his 2-4 year career. Talk about recency bias.

If "what have you done for me lately?" was an event, it would be called the NFL Combine and Draft.

Tim,

I think the key point here is that unexpected results send the GMs and scouts back to the tape (although, admittedly, there have been teams that allowed just the raw numbers to sway them).

Scouting is an inexact science.   So, the Combine does serve as a check on their work, so to speak. 

That's not to say every unexpected result (to the positive) will mean being drafted.  Look at the great Combine Bryce Ford-Wheaton had.   No doubt, teams went back to the tape, but what they saw on tape didn't match his numbers, they stood pat on the tape and didn't draft him.

Quote from: kingm56 on February 27, 2024, 01:19:07 PMThe medical information and ability to conduct face-to-face 'interviews' are useful; it's also useful to evaluate players returning from injuries.  However, in the modern NFL, importance of the combine is vastly overstated by some fans; to your point, teams should be able decipher any players' athletic abilities from 2-4 years of game tape.  It also shouldn't be lost on fans that fewer-and-fewer top prospects chose to participate in the combine, which hasn't hindered thier draft status.  Today, it's primary geared towards players trying to improve thier status.  In fact, the combine, in it's current presentation, is marketed towards the fans, and is no longer a key aperture for finalizing draft boards.

So I listen to your opinion, as a fan, and l listen to the former NFL GMs and Scouts.  I have to say your opinion doesn't quite match what I hear from people who scout players for a living and actually attended the Combine.  Even with a  few coaches skipping the draft, they still have access to film on all the player's workouts (and, of course, their numbers), and most of the coaches that don't attend still join in on the interviews via Zoom.

You mentioned not performing at the Combine (which is true for players already expected to go high, especially the QBs), but most of them still perform at the Pro Days (because the numbers still matter).

Plus, the NFL tends to look back and draw lessons from previous drafts.  Teams, not just the Giants, take note that Neal didn't participate in anything at the Combine and then skilled the testing at his Pro Day.  I suspect some teams will be more diligent moving forward.

The NFL Combine is considered a valuable tool for evaluating players entering the league. It allows teams to assess the physical abilities and skills of potential draft picks in a controlled environment. However, it is just one part of the evaluation process. Teams also consider players' college performance, game tape, interviews, and other factors before making their draft decisions.

Some of the most useful metrics in evaluating players at the NFL Combine include the 40-yard dash time, vertical jump, broad jump, bench press reps, three-cone drill, shuttle run, and position-specific drills. These metrics can give teams a good idea of a player's speed, strength, agility, and overall athleticism. However, it's important to note that no single metric can determine a player's success in the NFL, as performance on the field is influenced by a variety of factors.

Chat AI

The NFL Combine, once a cornerstone event for assessing prospective talent in the National Football League (NFL), is increasingly viewed as obsolete in the modern NFL landscape. This sentiment arises due to several factors. Firstly, advancements in technology and analytics have provided teams with more sophisticated methods for evaluating player performance, such as detailed game footage analysis and specialized tracking metrics during actual gameplay. These tools offer a more comprehensive understanding of a player's skills and potential compared to the limited scope of drills showcased at the Combine.

Secondly, the Combine's standardized drills fail to fully capture the intricacies of various positions and playing styles in football. For instance, a standout performance in a drill like the 40-yard dash may not necessarily translate to success on the field, where instincts, decision-making, and adaptability play crucial roles. As such, teams may prioritize game film and in-person scouting over Combine results when making draft decisions.

Moreover, the emphasis on Combine performance can lead to overvaluation or undervaluation of prospects based on isolated metrics, potentially overshadowing other important considerations such as character, work ethic, and football IQ. This tunnel vision on physical attributes alone may overlook players with intangible qualities that are vital for success in the NFL.

Furthermore, the rise of pro days and private workouts allows teams to tailor evaluations to their specific needs and preferences, circumventing the limitations of the standardized Combine format. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has forced adaptations in the NFL's approach to scouting, prompting increased reliance on virtual evaluations and individual workouts, further diminishing the relevance of the Combine's traditional structure.

In summary, while the NFL Combine has historically served as a centralized platform for evaluating talent, its significance has waned in the face of technological advancements, the evolving nature of scouting methodologies, and the emergence of alternative evaluation opportunities. As a result, many within the NFL community perceive the Combine as increasingly obsolete in the modern era.

CHAT GPT


Of course former GMs and Scouts aren't going to tell you this; to do so, would invalidate thier life's work.  The reality is, data, coupled with sophisticated algorithms/AI are replacing scouts with a clip board and stop watch.  Plus, I'll take my track record over the people you listen to, Rich .   

Quote from: kingm56 on February 27, 2024, 01:43:18 PMSecondly, the Combine's standardized drills fail to fully capture the intricacies of various positions and playing styles in football. For instance, a standout performance in a drill like the 40-yard dash may not necessarily translate to success on the field, where instincts, decision-making, and adaptability play crucial roles. As such, teams may prioritize game film and in-person scouting over Combine results when making draft decisions.

The NFL has added some new drills.  You are going to see new drills and tests only slowly added.   The reality is that the current drills and tests have decades of data for teams to draw on.  There are many ways for players to be measured, but the value of a given measure involves evidence proving the value of the measure.  Take the S2 test, which was all the rage after Purdy's breakout year (Purdy had a high S2 score).  People jumped on the test like it was the Rosetta Stone for drafting QBs.  CJ Stroud had a poor S2 score in the next draft and many thought Stroud wouldn't make it in the NFL because of that test.

In time (assuming it's not dropped, one agent firm is telling their prospects not to take the test), the S2 could prove to have value, but it takes years (to both build up the datasets and see the results of players drafted) for a test to prove its worth.

Here are a few GMs

First HOF Bill Polian


PHYSICAL TESTING
After the physicals and interview, in priority order, come height and weight measurement, timing and testing and individual position drills.

Timing and testing include the 40-yard dash. This is an age-old and still fool-proof method of determining football speed. It was invented in 1950 by Paul Brown based on the fact the average distance run while covering a punt, then and now, is 40 yards. It gives us a direct comparison between a receiver in 2023 with Jerry Rice.

The media emphasis placed on 40 times is warranted. Now, more than ever, we are a speed-oriented league. Don't, however, get caught up in one-hundredth of a second difference between two speedy receivers. In the immortal words of our former personnel director, the late Dom Anile, "Fast guys run fast."

The vertical and long jumps are also measured. They correlate directly to explosiveness, which is a must in the NFL. There is also the three-cone drill (triangle drill) and short-and long-shuttle drills, which are timed. These are used to measure lateral quickness and agility, another absolute requirement for NFL success. We ran an analysis every two years to make sure these drills correlated with success in the league. They did then and still do now.

Each team has minimum standards for these drills, which a player must meet or exceed to earn a place on the draft board. His playing ability grade affects the round in which he will be placed. For example, with the Colts, a wide receiver had to have a sub-4.51-second 40 and a sub-7.1-second triangle drill to make our draft board.

>> BILL PARCELLS: Sticking to Prototypes When Team-Building

The qualifying numbers vary by team, position and system of football, but they count — a lot. Bill Parcells cautioned, based on what he was told by Tom Landry, "If you make exceptions to your height, weight and speed standards, pretty soon you'll have a team full of exceptions and you'll lose." It was wise counsel I followed throughout my career.

The on-field position drills are, in my opinion and experience, somewhat overrated. They make for an entertaining television show and provide media a look at players' athleticism, but are by no means dispositive. For example, much is made of quarterbacks' arm strength in these drills.

Neither Peyton Manning nor Ryan Leaf threw at the combine. Leaf was widely reported to have a much stronger arm. Manning went to the Hall of Fame; Leaf's career ended early. I don't even remember if Tom Brady threw at the combine. I do remember his arm strength was considered below standard. How did that work out?

The fact is, private pro-day workouts on campus are better but not necessary. What a player does on video tells you what he is. If they did away with the on-field workouts tomorrow, it wouldn't have a major effect on how we scout. They are most useful for the coaches because they provide an overview of players they have never seen in person.

There are position coaches who place a high value on certain position drills. If there is a good reason to value that coach's analysis of a specific drill, we honored that. As an example, our great offensive line coach, the late Howard Mudd, placed a high value on the shuttle and triangle drills because they measured footwork. We wanted athletic offensive linemen. As we graded these players post-combine, Mudd would often refer to the times and grades on these drills.

The point is the combine is there to serve all 32 teams under one roof. National Scouting director Jeff Foster does a great job of running the combine. Not all drills and tests fit every club's template exactly, but each team gets meaningful data from the experience.

Combine results affect draft grades a great deal. If a player does not meet some or all of the club's height, weight, speed, medical or psychological standards, it can lower his grade. In some cases, it might take him off the board entirely.

Rick Spielman: Workout Warriors, a Cautionary Tale
Former NFL GM Rick Spielman gets us ready for the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine by reminding us that some numbers will stand out, but not all of them will mean anything. He looks at Darrius Heyward-Bey, Mike Mamula & Amon-Ra St. Brown as examples.
Play Video
Conversely, "workout warriors" who do exceptionally well at the combine get an extra look. In the end, however, as Bill Cowher says, a significant portion of a player's grade is "what he does on tape, not in the 'Underwear Olympics.' "

https://www.the33rdteam.com/how-teams-use-scouting-combine-to-evaluate-nfl-draft-prospects/


Former GM Randy Mueller


The Work Outs: This is the glorified part of the process that has been stretched out for as many days as possible so that fans can view it in time slots for ratings and TV purposes. I GET IT, it's about revenue. Football people need to wake up and face that its part of the new landscape. Content is king and this is very unique stuff.


Some positional workouts have more value than others but here is my take and a few things to consider:

 

Quarterbacks: If I was a top-rated guy, I would not consider throwing. Playing the position is more than just showing a strong arm. In this combine setting, you are throwing to receivers you don't know, routes get run differently by different guys and you are throwing with uncommon timing and rhythm. Guess who gets the blame for a very high percentage of incompletions?  Yep, it's the QB. Too much risk and not enough reward. Most of the top guys have already been evaluated on film so there is only downside to this type of risk.

 

RB's: This is valued information for one reason— to see who can run a route and who has receiving skills that translate at the NFL level. I really never cared about watching guys running thru bags or cutting under a coach's directions. I wanted to see if his hands were soft, can he adjust and catch a ball outside his frame and can he put his foot in the ground and separate as a route runner? It is easy and simple in my opinion.

 

WR's: Body control and route running technique can be judged in this environment. I looked at a player's pad level in and out of his breaks. The value comes in seeing these receivers doing it, one after the other, so comparisons are easier to the trained eye. 20 receivers running the same route one after another is great for comparison value. These drills also make it easy to evaluate for hands/catch radius and burst off a plant as part of a more complete evaluation that gets done on film.

 

Offensive Linemen: 300 lb guys running around in shorts and tee shirts never really had value for me. Sure, you can judge athleticism, but in the big scheme of things, no traits here really convert to a football field. They can only be used for comparative value. Please caution— I've seen some very smooth looking big guys run around bags and stationary people only to find out on film that they lack football ability. I have seen teams move players up draft boards after Indy and seeing their agility in the underwear Olympics. Be careful, it usually does not correlate. I was never smart enough to convert what I saw in workouts at this position to the power, strength, leverage, ability to engage lower body, and mass to move back on impact, that is needed on the football field.

 

Defensive Linemen: Other than the obvious athletic traits that are also readily seen on video, it's hard to take from the drills that are asked of these guys and transfer it to the real world. Defense is a reactive mindset whose production is determined, for the most part, by what the offense does. That's hard to replicate in a workout.

 

Linebackers: Speed and burst can be measured in a workout (for comparison reasons) but it's the again, the reactionary part that is missing in this showcase. Instincts, reading and reacting, and then the physical contact part, are all missing in these workouts. You need to careful as to not overvalue athletic ability at the combine at this position.

 

Defensive Backs: I have found over the years that this is the position where I could gather the most useful information during combine workouts. The drills allowed you to measure footspeed, in a backpedal retreat, body control when turning to run deep or break on crossing route, and general hip flexibility (watched from the right angle) which are seen on tape but in few and disconnected windows. It was my belief that you needed to watch more tape on these guys than any other position to get a complete read because one/single game might feature them only four or five times/plays.


I think it's why most scouts struggle to gather a complete set of skills for defensive backs. It takes more time and most amateur scouts can't identify the skills which I'm referring to. Workouts allow you to view athletic positions these players are put in and then you judge them as to whether their hips are fluid (if you can view from the right angle) or can recover from being off balance. The ability to turn and run without a hitch is paramount for this position. The other thing that came with the defensive backs workout is ball skills. You don't get to see on film more than a few times during a season full of tape if DB's can actually catch, or adjust to balls outside their frame, OR flail at the moment of truth with hand eye coordination. This part of a player's evaluation is critical.

 

Of all the on-field workout information that came to us thru the combine process, I'll reiterate that watching the DB's session was the most important.  I could always fill in the most blanks in my evaluations.

https://www.muellerfootball.com/post/the-value-of-the-scouting-combine


Proof that the QB still matters.  No way Richardson was drafted 4th if he had skipped the Combine

Anthony Richardson Has Historic NFL Combine Performance

https://www.the33rdteam.com/anthony-richardson-has-historic-nfl-combine-performance/

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 27, 2024, 02:10:18 PMProof that the QB still matters.  No way Richardson was drafted 4th if he had skipped the Combine

Anthony Richardson Has Historic NFL Combine Performance

https://www.the33rdteam.com/anthony-richardson-has-historic-nfl-combine-performance/

For sure.