Would you trade the first overall pick to Buffalo for Josh Allen?

[DaveBrown74]

Jeff,

Yesterday, I told you I thought Daniel Jones had a pretty good rookie season, with the exception of his high turnover rate.  This was how you responded:

Now Consider Josh Allen's penchant for giving the ball to the other team

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/mike-freeman/2023/11/17/buffalo-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-problems/71585981007/

When you're throwing for 4500 yards and 35-plus TDs, turnovers are easier to stomach. Not to mention his 6-9 rushing TDs he gets every year. Jones has never come close to the positive offensive production a QB like Josh Allen gives you. That's the difference. Turnovers matter hugely, but they are part of the big picture and have to be looked at in that context.

I understand his performance this year is down in the above respect, but I view it as a temporary blip, not some long term deterioration.

In any event, this thread was really more about "would you trade the opportunity to draft Williams or Maye" for Josh Allen. It wasn't meant to be a Josh Allen vs Jones thread. That would be a pretty silly, short thread.

[Gmo11]

Jeff,

Yesterday, I told you I thought Daniel Jones had a pretty good rookie season, with the exception of his high turnover rate.  This was how you responded:

Now Consider Josh Allen's penchant for giving the ball to the other team

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/mike-freeman/2023/11/17/buffalo-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-problems/71585981007/

I think the idea is that Allen always turns the ball over a lot...except when he was paired with Daboll and (presumably) Dorsey who is already available.  So the thinking is he goes back to the Josh Allen of the previous couple seasons would you make that deal.

Money aside because obviously you can't tie up half the salary cap with 2 QBs...you should 100% make that trade if offered.  With that #1 pick you're hoping you end up with Josh Allen, but you could end up with Josh Rosen.  So just go ahead and take Josh Allen now. 

But again it'll never happen.  Bills will never trade him, and the Giants could never afford him even if the Bills were dumb enough to make him available unless they also took Daniel Jones in the trade.  So unless they're firing their GM And hiring Gettleman...this is nothing more than a pipe dream. 

[DaveBrown74]

I think the idea is that Allen always turns the ball over a lot...except when he was paired with Daboll and (presumably) Dorsey who is already available.  So the thinking is he goes back to the Josh Allen of the previous couple seasons would you make that deal.

Money aside because obviously you can't tie up half the salary cap with 2 QBs...you should 100% make that trade if offered.  With that #1 pick you're hoping you end up with Josh Allen, but you could end up with Josh Rosen.  So just go ahead and take Josh Allen now. 

But again it'll never happen.  Bills will never trade him, and the Giants could never afford him even if the Bills were dumb enough to make him available unless they also took Daniel Jones in the trade.  So unless they're firing their GM And hiring Gettleman...this is nothing more than a pipe dream. 

It's definitely not happening. No chance the Bills would do it. And the fact that we all know they would never do it should not be lost on those who are saying they wouldn't want to do the trade if they are the Giants.

[H-Town G-Fan]

Did you watch the video in the lead post?  The whole premise of this theoretical trade is based on Bill's head coach getting fired and the team being torn down.

That is certainly not the sort of "problems" most fans would kill to have.

I see one guy spouting off about how the Bills are thinking of blowing things up--let me know what his source for that is.

And yes, the Bills' problems are enviable. They are wildly talented. Enough so to legitimately compete for a Superbowl. But their inability to win it all has bred uneasiness. I would easily take a winning organization looking for changes to get it over the hump than the Giants who are trying to scrape themselves into mediocrity after being in the dumpster for a decade.

[MightyGiants]

I see one guy spouting off about how the Bills are thinking of blowing things up--let me know what his source for that is.

And yes, the Bills' problems are enviable. They are wildly talented. Enough so to legitimately compete for a Superbowl. But their inability to win it all has bred uneasiness. I would easily take a winning organization looking for changes to get it over the hump than the Giants who are trying to scrape themselves into mediocrity after being in the dumpster for a decade.

If the regular season ended today, the Bills would be on the outside looking in on the playoff teams.  They let their DC walk last season, and they just fired their OC Ken Dorsey this week in the middle of the season.    These are not the indicators of a team that is still a winning team with a bright future.

[T200]

How has having Josh Allen helped the Bills?


On a related topic, it's disturbing that the team the Giants were modeling themselves after is having so many problems.

Maybe, juuuuuuuussssstttt maaaaaaaaayyyyybbbbeeeee...

Coaching matters???   

[H-Town G-Fan]

If the regular season ended today, the Bills would be on the outside looking in on the playoff teams.  They let their DC walk last season, and they just fired their OC Ken Dorsey this week in the middle of the season.    These are not the indicators of a team that is still a winning team with a bright future.

... But the season doesn't end today and they're one win back of the current playoff leaders, hardly an insurmountable task (especially when the Steelers are a pretender team). And again, they're top ten in both scoring and defense. Scoring points and preventing points is precisely how you win games. If you want, you can continue to tunnel on the optics of what's going on in Buffalo, but the football product is still amongst the strongest in the league (8th in team DVOA)... which is why during a relatively unlucky year (7-3 Pythagorean expected record this season) they're looking at what's preventing them from capitalizing on their prodigious talent.

[MightyGiants]

... But the season doesn't end today and they're one win back of the current playoff leaders, hardly an insurmountable task (especially when the Steelers are a pretender team). And again, they're top ten in both scoring and defense. Scoring points and preventing points is precisely how you win games. If you want, you can continue to tunnel on the optics of what's going on in Buffalo, but the football product is still amongst the strongest in the league (8th in team DVOA)... which is why during a relatively unlucky year (7-3 Pythagorean expected record this season) they're looking at what's preventing them from capitalizing on their prodigious talent.

I can't help but think of Bill Parcel's old, "you are what your record says you are" quote while reading your post.  I don't dispute the stats you quoted, but I tend to look more at the 5-5 record.  Worse (in terms of the Bills' prospects), they only have two more games against losing teams (Jets and Pats), and the Bills already lost to both of those teams.  Their other opponents are the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, and Dolphins.

[H-Town G-Fan]

I can't help but think of Bill Parcel's old, "you are what your record says you are" quote while reading your post.  I don't dispute the stats you quoted, but I tend to look more at the 5-5 record.  Worse (in terms of the Bills' prospects), they only have two more games against losing teams (Jets and Pats), and the Bills already lost to both of those teams.  Their other opponents are the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, and Dolphins.

Yes, they're going to have to beat good teams. Just like they would in the playoffs. They are not out of contention (not even close). They very might well miss the playoffs and fire more coaches. And even then, I'd still take the Bills' situation of a gifted roster with (potential) coaching issues over the Giants (who have their own questions about coaching, as you've noted elsewhere, in addition to a talent-deficient roster). If you disagree, that's fine. Reasonable minds and whatnot.

[Painter]

It's a bit of stretch, isn't it. But, if the Bills were actually interested in making such a deal, my answer would then be NO!

Cheers!

[andrew_nyGiants]

Can you say 1st rounder that became Randy White for Craig Morton?!!

Hell NO!!


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[TDToomer]

There is a better chance that Ken Dorsey is our OC in 2024 than Josh Allen is our QB.

[AYM]

This would never happen, but you make the trade. What's better than a chance at a star QB in his prime? An actual star QB in his prime.

I get the gold standard of wanting that star QB on a rookie deal. But I'd rather get the sure thing than a potential bust.

The salary cap? You'd get Allen and figure out the rest of the roster afterward.

[Dgoodmantrublu]

Allen is having an unlucky year. His turnover worthy plays are well below other QBs with less interceptions. It is likely to revert back to a normal amount. Mahomes has had well more turnover worthy throws than him. Allen is a great QB. And he's the reason the Bills have been in the mix consistently until this season.

When you're throwing for 4500 yards and 35-plus TDs, turnovers are easier to stomach. Not to mention his 6-9 rushing TDs he gets every year. Jones has never come close to the positive offensive production a QB like Josh Allen gives you. That's the difference. Turnovers matter hugely, but they are part of the big picture and have to be looked at in that context.

I understand his performance this year is down in the above respect, but I view it as a temporary blip, not some long term deterioration.

In any event, this thread was really more about "would you trade the opportunity to draft Williams or Maye" for Josh Allen. It wasn't meant to be a Josh Allen vs Jones thread. That would be a pretty silly, short thread.

[MightyGiants]

Allen is having an unlucky year. His turnover worthy plays are well below other QBs with less interceptions. It is likely to revert back to a normal amount. Mahomes has had well more turnover worthy throws than him. Allen is a great QB. And he's the reason the Bills have been in the mix consistently until this season.

Josh Allen turnovers per game

2023- 1.4
2022- 1.2
2021- 1.1
2020- 1.0
2019- 0.8
2018- 1.2

So Josh's numbers are up a bit this season, but turning the ball over is part of his game.  For most of his career you could count on 1 or more per game