Big Blue Huddle

Fauci is pulling a 180. 

Hint:  when it comes to Fauci believe the opposite of what he initially says and he will eventually catch up with you.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/555057-fauci-bombshell-not-convinced-covid-19-developed

Wuhan Lab staff sought medical attention in November 2019.  CCP's reply is that US spreads disinformation. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/wuhan-lab-staff-sought-hospital-care-before-covid-19-outbreak-disclosed-wsj-2021-05-23/

QuoteBiden administration continued to have "serious questions about the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic, including its origins within the Peoples Republic of China."

A Trump administration "intelligence" report claims that 3 Wuhan Lab workers went to the hospital with Covid in November.

Now that sounds pretty damning until one takes a moment to think about what would happen if 3 covid patients sick enough to seek medical attention showed up at a hospital and no precautions were taken.  The hospital would have been ground zero for the Covid outbreak and even the most basic outbreak investigation would reveal that.


In the end, Trump and the Republicans are proving to be less trustworthy than the Chinese Government.


As for Fauci, this is the right's dishonesty at work.  In science, we don't rule anything out until proven ruled out.   Still, the science to date has ruled lab accidents as highly unlikely.  However, since Trump and the Republicans desperately want someone to blame for their criminally negligent handling of the disease that needlessly killed 100s of thousands of Americans, they are pointing a finger at their latest boogie man, the Chinese, and pretend not-ruled out is the same as "this is how it happened"

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 24, 2021, 12:20:36 PM
A Trump administration "intelligence" report claims that 3 Wuhan Lab workers went to the hospital with Covid in November.

Now that sounds pretty damning until one takes a moment to think about what would happen if 3 covid patients sick enough to seek medical attention showed up at a hospital and no precautions were taken.  The hospital would have been ground zero for the Covid outbreak and even the most basic outbreak investigation would reveal that.


In the end, Trump and the Republicans are proving to be less trustworthy than the Chinese Government.


As for Fauci, this is the right's dishonesty at work.  In science, we don't rule anything out until proven ruled out.   Still, the science to date has ruled lab accidents as highly unlikely.  However, since Trump and the Republicans desperately want someone to blame for their criminally negligent handling of the disease that needlessly killed 100s of thousands of Americans, they are pointing a finger at their latest boogie man, the Chinese, and pretend not-ruled out is the same as "this is how it happened"

Rich: Everyone here seems to know the bold-face part of your post.... except you.  Bob

I would caution anyone interested in participating in this post to stick to medical facts, and to avoid and ignore political references, as they are no longer to be put on this (Front Porch) site.  Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 24, 2021, 04:47:22 PM
I would caution anyone interested in participating in this post to stick to medical facts, and to avoid and ignore political references, as they are no longer to be put on this (Front Porch) site.  Bob

Bob this thread is NOTHING but right-wing propaganda designed to attack the truth for political gain.  This thread should have been shut down already.   

You and Jimmy are both overhyping a remote possibility for political gain (at the expense of the truth)

Of course, your man Trump's former CDC director didn't even bother to pretend it was just a possibility

Redfield went on to say:

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 24, 2021, 05:18:06 PM
Bob this thread is NOTHING but right-wing propaganda designed to attack the truth for political gain.  This thread should have been shut down already.   

You and Jimmy are both overhyping a remote possibility for political gain (at the expense of the truth)

Of course, your man Trump's former CDC director didn't even bother to pretend it was just a possibility

Redfield went on to say:

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 24, 2021, 06:17:54 PM
Rich: The question of the origins of the virus is open, and resolution of the issue has nothing to do with politics.  It is a scientific issue.

Fauci has recently indicated he is not sure whether the virus came from a lab - or - whether it came from nature and jump from an animal to a human. 

I see you as the person who has now twice attempted to bring politics into the discussion.  True, the original post mentions Biden but only because it is referring to the people in his administration.

Bob

PS.  You use the word "truth a lot in your posts.  If you know the "truth" about the origins of the coronavirus, please let us in on the secret.

Bob,

The TRUTH is this thread has NOTHING to do with the scientific pursuit of the origins of the virus and everything about you and Jimmy pushing  propaganda by overhyping a remote possibility strictly for your political gain

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 24, 2021, 06:36:09 PM
Bob,

The TRUTH is this thread has NOTHING to do with the scientific pursuit of the origins of the virus and everything about you and Jimmy pushing  propaganda by overhyping a remote possibility strictly for your political gain

Rich: Just follow the science.  Bob

Jimmy:  In November, 2019, yes, three researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were hospitalized with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 BUT ALSO consistent with common seasonal illness.

This fact is known to US intelligence officials, and President Biden has been pushing for more access and more information in order to get to the bottom of exactly what happened.

The administration has repeatedly called for the WHO to support an expert driven evaluation of the pandemic's origins that is free from interference or politicization.  I'm counting on this.  I want to know the truth.

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 24, 2021, 08:45:47 PM
Jimmy:  In November, 2019, yes, three researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were hospitalized with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 BUT ALSO consistent with common seasonal illness.

This fact is known to US intelligence officials, and President Biden has been pushing for more access and more information in order to get to the bottom of exactly what happened.

The administration has repeatedly called for the WHO to support an expert driven evaluation of the pandemic's origins that is free from interference or politicization.  I'm counting on this.  I want to know the truth.

Bob

Bob,

It took the 'scientists' all of, what, one week to determine the origin of the virus even though the virus has never been found in a wild animal and transmits 99.99% indoors.  Must have been transmitted by a house bat.   ;)

Imagine all the great scientists in history who never lived long enough to see their theories proven or accepted; and just how much in awe they would be at Peter Daszak's ability to sway an entire planet's opinion with one letter.

Quote from: jimmyz on May 24, 2021, 09:11:56 PM
Bob,

It took the 'scientists' all of, what, one week to determine the origin of the virus even though the virus has never been found in a wild animal and transmits 99.99% indoors.  Must have been transmitted by a house bat.   ;)

Imagine all the great scientists in history who never lived long enough to see their theories proven or accepted; and just how much in awe they would be at Peter Daszak's ability to sway an entire planet's opinion with one letter.

jimmy: There was a second letter, actually, although that one was only signed by five people, so it probably carried a lot less weight. In any event, the efficacy of the speculation in the Daszak at letter was not questioned until now. I have no idea why not.  It just doesn't make sense. I'm no scientist, but I believe I'm entitled to opine that the Daszak letter consisted only of (at most) an educated guess. To be sure, the people who signed the letter were certainly qualified to render their opinion and make an educated guess (a lot more qualified than I am) but there were also thousands of other qualified scientists who seemed to have been either asleep at the wheel - or - somehow "cowed" into remaining silent.  Can you think of any other explanation? Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 24, 2021, 08:27:40 PM
Rich: Just follow the science.  Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 24, 2021, 08:45:47 PM
Jimmy:  In November, 2019, yes, three researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were hospitalized with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 BUT ALSO consistent with common seasonal illness.

This fact is known to US intelligence officials, and President Biden has been pushing for more access and more information in order to get to the bottom of exactly what happened.

The administration has repeatedly called for the WHO to support an expert driven evaluation of the pandemic's origins that is free from interference or politicization.  I'm counting on this.  I want to know the truth.

Bob

You commentary reminds me of the old saying, "be careful what you wish for"   >:D


See one of the first things we in science learn is what a fact actually is.    An intelligence report is not actually a "fact".  If they were, then Bush and the GOP wouldn't be guilty of war crimes (war of aggression) when they attacked Iraq falsely claiming they were in possession of WMDs.    Of course, the quality of intelligence reports vary and this one is not even a particularly good one.

QuoteThe Journal said current and former officials familiar with the intelligence expressed a range of views about the strength of the report's supporting evidence, with one unnamed person saying it needed "further investigation and additional corroboration."

So Bob, the fact is you falsely claimed what was found in a Trump-era intelligence report was a "FACT".    We don't do that in science.   Do you know what else we don't do in science?   We don't look only at facts that support an agenda.  Instead we look at ALL the facts in our efforts to learn the truth.  So it was highly unethical (scientifically speaking) to deliberately leave out this report

QuoteYuan Zhiming, director of the lab, told the Global Times the Journal report was "groundless." China's foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, also called the claim "completely untrue."

This omission is hardly accidental.  This thread (and the previous one) have nothing to do with science or the scientific method, and everything to do with politics and promoting political agendas through selectively posting information you deem favorable to your cause.

Of course, I am sure you or Jimmy will claim that we can't trust the Chinese government, but somehow we can trust Trump and Pompeo two men that betrayed their nation by lying about the results of the last election.   It's funny but in my world when you repeatedly lie, you are no longer trusted.

So in the end we have a weak intelligence report produced by known liars and we have the denial of the Chinese government (also known liars) and the denial from the head of the lab (whose track record of honesty is unknown.

Of course, this is hardly an isolated incident of cherry-picking data over looking at all the facts.  While you two have parrotted right-wing talking points over two threads and posted all sorts of information you deemed favorable to your political agendas, not one of you have posted the scientific report produced by over 30 worldwide disease experts who went to China (under the auspices of WHO) and investigated the origins of the disease.      Why would you post this high-quality scientific study factual study?   Because it doesn't support your political agendas and these threads were never about science and examining all the relevant facts.  The report you pretended didn't exist concluded that lab accident was HIGHLY UNLIKELY.   

https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/origins-of-the-virus

Rich: I think you misread me, so I won't reply until you get a chance to maybe alter your post.  Let me know.   

The "fact" to which I was referring when I said "this fact" in my post refers to the immediately preceding sentence, and I sincerely believe if you read that sentence again you will agree that that IS a fact. 

I'm saying they know three people got sick, but they don't know what disease they suffered.  It could have been the flu or some other seasonal illness.  It also could have been COVID. The symptoms are ambiguous.

Bob

PS. I do try never to use the word "fact" in posts about contentious subjects without thinking thrice (hopefully, it's not my eyes playing tricks on me).

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 09:56:01 AM
Rich: I think you misread me, so I won't reply until you get a chance to maybe alter your post.  Let me know.   

The "fact" to which I was referring when I said "this fact" in my post refers to the immediately preceding sentence, and I sincerely believe if you read that sentence again you will agree that that IS a fact. 

I'm saying they know three people got sick, but they don't know what disease they suffered.  It could have been the flu or some other seasonal illness.  It also could have been COVID. The symptoms are ambiguous.

Bob

PS. I do try never to use the word "fact" in posts about contentious subjects without thinking thrice (hopefully, it's not my eyes playing tricks on me).

No, I stand 100% by what I said.  The only "fact" is that the Trump administration produced an intelligence report (the qualify of which is subject to debate) CLAIMING that 3 people got sick from the lab and went to the hospital.   It's also a fact that both the Chinese government and the lab dispute that claim.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 10:01:01 AM
No, I stand 100% by what I said.  The only "fact" is that the Trump administration produced an intelligence report (the qualify of which is subject to debate) CLAIMING that 3 people got sick from the lab and went to the hospital.   It's also a fact that both the Chinese government and the lab dispute that claim.

Rich: First, I was truly unaware that the Chinese government and the lab dispute the claim the anyone who works in the lab ever became ill at the time in question.  I have never seen that stated anywhere.

Further, don't you have trouble believing no lab employee was ever ill at the time in question? I have a great deal of trouble believing that.  Are they are super-human beings who never get sick for any reason?

Lastly, I have never seen anything from the Biden administration disputing the intel report, nor has Biden publicly contested (or even questioned) the findings of the intel report.

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 10:11:47 AM
Rich: First, I was truly unaware that the Chinese government and the lab dispute the claim the anyone who works in the lab ever became ill at the time in question.  I have never seen that stated anywhere.

Further, don't you have trouble believing no lab employee was ever ill at the time in question? I have a great deal of trouble believing that.  Are they are super-human beings who never get sick for any reason?

Lastly, I have never seen anything from the Biden administration disputing the intel report, nor has Biden publicly contested (or even questioned) the findings of the intel report.

Bob

So you have no problem "believing" the outlandish scenario where 3 people were "HOSPITALIZED" sick with Covid (and shedding virus like crazy) yet somehow didn't get other patients, visitors, or hospital staff sick with Covid (despite zero safety precautions), but the idea that no lab workers were "hospitalized" in the month of November is "unbelievable".   

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 10:18:27 AM
So you have no problem "believing" the outlandish scenario where 3 people were "HOSPITALIZED" sick with Covid (and shedding virus like crazy) yet somehow didn't get other patients, visitors, or hospital staff sick with Covid (despite zero safety precautions), but the idea that no lab workers were "hospitalized" in the month of November is "unbelievable".

Rich: No.  That is where, IMO, you a being a bit stubborn.  I'm definitely NOT believing that scenario (nor am I insisting in any way that you should believe it). 

At this point in time, I'm ONLY saying that that scenario has not been conclusively ruled out.  That is a fact.

IMO, it would simple for the Chinese to provide hospital records which would totally dispel that scenario, and I am surprised that they have not already done so.  So, I am suspicious, and it is still a viable scenario.

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 10:26:42 AM
Rich: No.  That is where, IMO, you a being a bit stubborn.  I'm definitely NOT believing that scenario (nor am I insisting in any way that you should believe it). 

At this point in time, I'm ONLY saying that that scenario has not been conclusively ruled out.  That is a fact.

IMO, it would simple for the Chinese to provide hospital records which would totally dispel that scenario, and I am surprised that they have not already done so.  So, I am suspicious, and it is still a viable scenario.

Bob

Yeah, I am sure politically driven conspiracy theorists would be totally satisfied if the hospital violated patient privacy and turned over all their records. /sarcasm/  I am sure no one would claim the records were altered or doctored /sarcasm/

The Biden Administration is using the Trump Administration's intelligence report.  Take that for what you will.  I'll take it as admission that at least the Biden administration finds it credible enough to open a book that Daszak closed and the media declared was settled. 

The Lab Leak theory lives while Russia Russia Russian meddling has suddenly fallen off a steep cliff as Biden granted a huge but little reported favor to Putin by waiving sanctions on a Russian oil pipeline to Germany.  It speaks to what was mere politics vs what is a real concern.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 10:33:13 AM
Yeah, I am sure politically driven conspiracy theorists would be totally satisfied if the hospital violated patient privacy and turned over all their records. /sarcasm/  I am sure no one would claim the records were altered or doctored /sarcasm/

Rich: It's a good point.  On the other hand, maybe that's what's taking the Chinese so long to turn over the records... they are still under "preparation" for public viewing. We all know the Chinese never lie.   /sarcasm/

I had no idea the CCP valued patient privacy.   =)) =)) =)) =)) =)) =)) =)) =))

Quote from: jimmyz on May 25, 2021, 10:34:01 AM
The Biden Administration is using the Trump Administration's intelligence report.

If this is a science thread and not another politically driven attack on the truth, you can not doubt provide documented proof to support this claim.   Proof that the Biden administration is "using" that report.

Now to save you time, the Biden's administration's desire to continue to investigate all possibilities is DOES NOT support an assertion that they are using the Trump intel report.

Quote from: jimmyz on May 25, 2021, 10:42:03 AM
I had no idea the CCP valued patient privacy.   =)) =)) =)) =)) =)) =)) =)) =))

That's a very "scientific" comment /sarcasm/


This thread reminds me of the old saying-  don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining

If the report was baseless to begin with then why is Biden's administration even bothering to look?  I mean....they stopped looking at the Red Scourge didn't they?

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 10:45:55 AM
That's a very "scientific" comment /sarcasm/


This thread reminds me of the old saying-  don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining

That wasn;t scientific but your comment about Communist China not wanting to violating patient privacy made me laugh.  In so many ways, you clearly have a 1980s world view.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 10:42:33 AM
If this is a science thread and not another politically driven attack on the truth, you can not doubt provide documented proof to support this claim.   Proof that the Biden administration is "using" that report.

Now to save you time, the Biden's administration's desire to continue to investigate all possibilities is DOES NOT support an assertion that they are using the Trump intel report.

Rich: I agree with you, and I think jimmy's statement needs revision. 

IMO, it is correct to say that whether or not the Biden admin is using the Trump admin intel report, it is clear (to me, at least) that the Biden admin has not disavowed the Trump admin intel report.

I believe you can and will (and should) agree with my clarification.  Let me know.

Bob

Quote from: jimmyz on May 25, 2021, 10:49:21 AM
That wasn;t scientific but your comment about Communist China not wanting to violating patient privacy made me laugh.  In so many ways, you clearly have a 1980s world view.

So you are admitting your thread is just political propaganda and not science (a really crappy political view in my opinion)


See, here's the thing, FACTUALLY I didn't say the Chinese government was worried about patient privacy.   I said:

"if the hospital violated patient privacy and turned over all their record"

Nowhere did I state that the Chinese government- "not wanting to violate patient privacy"

Science is about facts and evidence and seeking the truth.   This thread is about you pushing the political talking points you learned from consuming way too much political propaganda

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 10:54:02 AM
Rich: I agree with you, and I think jimmy's statement needs revision. 

IMO, it is correct to say that whether or not the Biden admin is using the Trump admin intel report, it is clear (to me, at least) that the Biden admin has not disavowed the Trump admin intel report.

I believe you can and will (and should) agree with my clarification.  Let me know.

Bob

Since I have removed all doubt that this is purely a political thread masquerading as a science thread, I will give you a political answer.   Why would Biden or his administration dispute the report?   From their political vantage point, keeping the pressure on China to be more forthcoming with information is positive.   In the pursuit of the truth, the leaked intelligence report (accurate or not) serves the a purpose. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 10:58:13 AM
So you are admitting your thread is just political propaganda and not science (a really crappy political view in my opinion)


See, here's the thing, FACTUALLY I didn't say the Chinese government was worried about patient privacy.   I said:

"if the hospital violated patient privacy and turned over all their record"

Nowhere did I state that the Chinese government- "not wanting to violate patient privacy"

Science is about facts and evidence and seeking the truth.   This thread is about you pushing the political talking points you learned from consuming way too much political propaganda

But why bother mentioning hospitals violating patient privacy when that is hardly even a concern for the CCP?  What are you hinting at by bringing it up?  You were using that as a possible reason for why the CCP wouldnt expose patient records and violate their privacy.  Nice try though.  How about you not piss on my leg and tell me its raining?

Quote from: jimmyz on May 25, 2021, 11:04:23 AM
But why bother mentioning hospitals violating patient privacy when that is hardly even a concern for the CCP? 

Because we as Americans consider patient privacy important, so why are you and Bob advocating that we demand others to take actions we would consider unethical????


Again, this BS thread is a great example of why we did away with politics

The science groupies of late have changed their tune.  It is no longer that the science shows the virus came from nature to the science says we gotta keep all avenues open.

Do I respect the science?  Yep.  Do I respect the scientists on this matter?  The ones without an agenda...yep; meaning definitely not Peter Daszak.

QuoteEvidence that Covid-19 originally leaked from a Wuhan, China, virology lab is growing, Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Monday, pointing to reports that three researchers from the lab sought hospital care with a Covid-like illness in November 2019.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 11:08:12 AM
Because we as Americans consider patient privacy important, so why are you and Bob advocating that we demand others to take actions we would consider unethical????


Again, this BS thread is a great example of why we did away with politics

You must be confused because we are talking about the prospects of two separate governments finding a source of this virus and your claim is now that because we as Americans do value patient privacy we wouldnt suggest the CCP hand over that information for investigation because of our robust sense of ethics?  Remember, this is the US government supposedly acting on our behalf and they wouldn;t hesitate to ask for exactly that in spite of our citizenry's moral objections.

Quote from: jimmyz on May 25, 2021, 11:10:50 AM
The science groupies of late have changed their tune.  It is no longer that the science shows the virus came from nature to the science says we gotta keep all avenues open.

Do I respect the science?  Yep.  Do I respect the scientists on this matter?  The ones without an agenda...yep; meaning definitely not Peter Daszak.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/24/gottlieb-says-theres-growing-circumstantial-evidence-that-covid-may-have-originated-in-a-lab.html

So you are upping the politics factor.  Here is the guy you are quoting


Scott Gottlieb is an American physician and investor who served as the 23rd Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration from 2017 until April 2019 under Donald Trump.
Born: June 11, 1972 (age 48 years), East Brunswick, NJ
Nationality: American
Spouse: Allyson Nemeroff (m. 2004)
Party: Republican Party
Parents: Stanley Gottlieb, Marsha Gottlieb
Education: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Wesleyan University


Yup, the Trump administration was so honest, no reason to not take everything they say on blind faith /sarcasm/


By all means, though continue to pursue your political agenda of slandering and demonizing  Peter Daszak an infectious disease expert for the crime of interfering with your rank political agenda

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 11:02:39 AM
Why would Biden or his administration dispute the report?   From their political vantage point, keeping the pressure on China to be more forthcoming with information is positive.   In the pursuit of the truth, the leaked intelligence report (accurate or not) serves the a purpose.

Rich: I agree. And, by the way, I don't think your response is political, strictly speaking. Generally "all politics should end at the border" (we traditionally try to unite on issues relating to defense and foreign affairs).  Bob

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 11:17:58 AM
So you are upping the politics factor.  Here is the guy you are quoting


Scott Gottlieb is an American physician and investor who served as the 23rd Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration from 2017 until April 2019 under Donald Trump.
Born: June 11, 1972 (age 48 years), East Brunswick, NJ
Nationality: American
Spouse: Allyson Nemeroff (m. 2004)
Party: Republican Party
Parents: Stanley Gottlieb, Marsha Gottlieb
Education: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Wesleyan University


Yup, the Trump administration was so honest, no reason to not take everything they say on blind faith /sarcasm/


By all means, though continue to pursue your political agenda of slandering and demonizing  Peter Daszak an infectious disease expert for the crime of interfering with your rank political agenda

So Gotlieb is not trustworthy because he wears an R?  Meanwhile Daszak, the most compromised person at the center of this controversy is the most trustworthy? 

You weren't pissing on my leg, you're sh!tting me. 

Quote from: jimmyz on May 25, 2021, 11:23:14 AM
So Gotlieb is not trustworthy because he wears an R?  Meanwhile Daszak, the most compromised person at the center of this controversy is the most trustworthy? 

You weren't pissing on my leg, you're sh!tting me.

This Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll:

The May 17-19 national poll found that 53% of Republicans believe Trump, their party's nominee, is the

Nothing political about this thread   /sarcasm/


Stop pretending you are discussing topics, when all that is occurring, thread after thread, is taking the same BS talking points from the outside world and infusing them into the BBH. 

BTW-Science is about nothing other than the quest for knowledge through the Scientific Method.


It's about an approach that takes a question, conducts research, develops a hypothesis, test the hypothesis, makes unbiased observations,  analyze results and draw a conclusion only to have the whole transparent process evaluated by presenting your findings.




This method is the single greatest development by man ever, period.


What editorialized TV and radio productions have done to warp the masses view of science by exploiting  their limited education and capacity is shameful. 






 

The WHO has been lying and covering up for China since day one of covid. They are not to be trusted . The so called investigation by

Quote from: Woody on May 25, 2021, 12:09:05 PM
The WHO has been lying and covering up for China since day one of covid. They are not to be trusted .

Not a scientific observation but claim endorsed by Donald Trump and the right-wing propaganda machine.   Just more proof this thread was always about pushing political propaganda rather than a scientific discussion.

Quote from: Woody on May 25, 2021, 12:09:05 PM

Wait until it comes out that Fauci was funding the lab in question against Obamas direction way back in 2014 .

What far-right political propaganda source did you get this one from?

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 12:12:40 PM
Not a scientific observation but claim endorsed by Donald Trump and the right-wing propaganda machine.   Just more proof this thread was always about pushing political propaganda rather than a scientific discussion.

What far-right political propaganda source did you get this one from?

Rich: Why add a political spin to posts that mention only scientific matters? I don't see any reason for it other than a possible subconscious desire to sabotage any conversation about origin of the virus. Bob

I thought Covid and its origins were a diabolical plot cooked up by Fauci and aided by CNN to cover up for China so they could rake in billions on PPE and ratings for CNN. In fact, it might have been Dr. Evil who unleashed the virus on the world  using the not to be trusted Chinese as his own cover. Where is Austin Powers to solve this crime???

Quote from: katkavage on May 25, 2021, 12:29:36 PM
I thought Covid and its origins were a diabolical plot cooked up by Fauci and aided by CNN to cover up for China so they could rake in billions on PPE and ratings for CNN. In fact, it might have been Dr. Evil who unleashed the virus on the world  using the not to be trusted Chinese as his own cover. Where is Austin Powers to solve this crime???

kat: Good one. The truth will come out. I don't know what it might be, but IMO this is a matter of great significance to all of humanity... so IMO we must persevere until there are definitive answers.  Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 12:26:46 PM
Rich: Why add a political spin to posts that mention only scientific matters? I don't see any reason for it other than a possible subconscious desire to sabotage any conversation about origin of the virus. Bob

Seriously?!?!   :what:


Bob,

Why don't you admit this is was always a political thread and shut it down like it should have been from the start?  This thread was never anything other than you and Jimmy (and now Woody) pushing your political agenda while trying to claim it's just an innocent scientific discussion.   :boooo:   I have already demonstrated how you two cherry-picked data (a scientific no-no) to support political positions and now you have Woody espousing wild right-wing political conspiracy theories.

Time to keep make the Front Porch a politics free zone. 

Quote from: katkavage on May 25, 2021, 12:29:36 PM
I thought Covid and its origins were a diabolical plot cooked up by Fauci and aided by CNN to cover up for China so they could rake in billions on PPE and ratings for CNN. In fact, it might have been Dr. Evil who unleashed the virus on the world  using the not to be trusted Chinese as his own cover. Where is Austin Powers to solve this crime???

=D> =D> =D> =D> =D>


That sums it up nicely  :ok:

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 12:33:25 PM
kat: Good one. The truth will come out. I don't know what it might be, but IMO this is a matter of great significance to all of humanity... so IMO we must persevere until there are definitive answers.  Bob

Yes it is, but for now we just have to wait for real answers, stop slinging mud around, and find out the truth.

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 12:33:25 PM
kat: Good one. The truth will come out. I don't know what it might be, but IMO this is a matter of great significance to all of humanity... so IMO we must persevere until there are definitive answers.  Bob

"a matter of great significance to all of humanity"   

There are three likely outcomes

1)  The source is never determined.  Being able to definitively trace the origin of a disease requires a bit of luck and not every disease has its source definitively identified.

2)  The source is traced back to zoonotic origins which will nice to know but likely will produce no actionable information.  Rather it will satisfy scientific curiosity.

3)  It's traced back to a lab accident.    It's unlikely humans will stop investigating diseases as outbreaks have and will continue to happen (likely with increasing frequency).   It would be helpful in terms of identifying areas to improve lab safety.  Certainly helpful


None of those outcomes appear to even remotely rise to the level of "a matter of great significance to all of humanity"

Now if you look at this issue through a political lens...

Quote from: katkavage on May 25, 2021, 12:45:06 PM
Yes it is, but for now we just have to wait for real answers, stop slinging mud around, and find out the truth.

A stark contrast in opinion from last year when the notion of even questioning the origins were being shut down, an answer was provided instantly, mud was slung and the truth was whatever Daszak said it was.

Quote from: katkavage on May 25, 2021, 12:29:36 PM
I thought Covid and its origins were a diabolical plot cooked up by Fauci and aided by CNN to cover up for China so they could rake in billions on PPE and ratings for CNN. In fact, it might have been Dr. Evil who unleashed the virus on the world  using the not to be trusted Chinese as his own cover. Where is Austin Powers to solve this crime???

According to Jimmy and Bob these theories have not been disproven so they have to be considered valid and just as likely as any other.   :laugh:

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 12:53:44 PM
"a matter of great significance to all of humanity"   

There are three likely outcomes

1)  The source is never determined.  Being able to definitively trace the origin of a disease requires a bit of luck and not every disease has its source definitively identified.

2)  The source is traced back to zoonotic origins which will nice to know but likely will produce no actionable information.  Rather it will satisfy scientific curiosity.

3)  It's traced back to a lab accident.    It's unlikely humans will stop investigating diseases as outbreaks have and will continue to happen (likely with increasing frequency).   It would be helpful in terms of identifying areas to improve lab safety.  Certainly helpful


None of those outcomes appear to even remotely rise to the level of "a matter of great significance to all of humanity"

Now if you look at this issue through a political lens...

And in the event its option #3, its the one area where, as a policy, the people who fund the research can impose stricter controls on processes; something that was not done up til now.

Quote from: jimmyz on May 25, 2021, 01:07:07 PM
And in the event its option #3, its the one area where, as a policy, the people who fund the research can impose stricter controls on processes; something that was not done up til now.

If this is not more political bull crap, I am sure  you can explain in some detail the current controls and where you feel they are lacking

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 01:11:59 PM
In short, I think it's a sad day... not only for us, but in general, when we can't discuss science without reference to politics.


Bob

Bob,

One side has always supported science and followed the science.  The other side liked science when it was helping us win the cold war, now that the cold war is over the other side has no use for science.  We see that with Climate change.  We witnessed that with Covid.


You're right though, it a sad day for the US and humanity that one side of our nation's political spectrum has become so anti-science and has substituted their politics for science and the scientific method.

Look at climate change.  As I said early, science is about examining all the facts and reaching conclusions.   Yet despite less than 10% of qualified climate scientists questioning the conclusions of the overwhelming majority, you have only posted articles questioning or disputing climate change. 

I mean when I see you and Jimmy playing these political games with science, I am reminded of the old Dentyne  Gum commercials where they talked about "4 out of 5 dentists recommend sugarless gum for their patients who chew gum".    I could see you and Jimmy and others that share your political views saying (if that was on today) "Woah!  Woah!   We need to hear out that 5th dentists I think he is the guy who nailed it"

As for your point about Covid being political, that was true the moment Trump and his political allies declared Covid a Democratic hoax designed to scare people.

Or do you forget what one elected Republican official did in the halls of Congress to mock the Covid concerns of everyone not listening to Trump and Fox News?

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200304183027-01-gaetz-coronavirus-gas-mask-exlarge-169.jpg)

Nor have the elected Republican officials learned from their past mistakes




Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸
@mtgreenee
Vaccinated employees get a vaccination logo just like the Nazi

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 12:53:44 PM
None of those outcomes appear to even remotely rise to the level of "a matter of great significance to all of humanity"

Rich: Are you suggesting (in writing, with your identity attached to the post) that determining the origins of a disease that killed millions of people is not a matter of great significance to all of humanity? Bob

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 12:38:38 PM
Time to keep make the Front Porch a politics free zone.

Rich: For a guy who wrote the line above, you sure do have a lot to say about these issues.  LOL

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 12:38:38 PM
Time to keep make the Front Porch a politics free zone.

Rich: If this particular COVID thread is deemed "political" then IMO all other COVID threads posted on the Front Porch must be political also (and therefore banned).

I don't see how to distinguish one COVID thread from another; I can post a reply mentioning conservatives, liberals, R's or D's & then say the original topic was political because it invited such a response.

If anyone can tell me how to decide which COVID threads are political and which are not, please fill me in and I'll gladly follow those guidelines.

In short, I think it's a sad day... not only for us, but in general, when we can't discuss science without reference to politics.

The origins of the virus are a global, humanitarian issue.  Determining which politicians or scientists were CORRECT or INCORRECT a year ago (or today) is IMO of utterly no importance.

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 01:27:28 PM
Rich: Are you suggesting (in writing, with your identity attached to the post) that determining the origins of a disease that killed millions of people is not a matter of great significance to all of humanity? Bob

Significant discoveries lead to the improvement of the lives of humanity.    One out of the three possible outcomes leads to a marginal improvement.   I say marginal because I have watched many seasons of Airline disasters.   Despite the FAA and similar organizations around the world doing a great job of analyzing the cause of aircraft accidents and making corrective recommendations, they will never eliminate preventable accidents no matter how many changes are enacted.

If a lab accident turns out to be the cause, similar to successful crash investigations, change/improvement recommendations will be made but they will unlikely to significantly impact humanity.   Hell when you consider all the years of germ warfare research along with all the years of disease study, the frequency of lab accidents (assuming this one beats the odds and turns out to be a lab accident) are exceedingly rare.   So the impact even if a major flaw (if there was an accident, it was likely the failure of multiple systems/procedures) is discovered and corrected will be minimal. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 01:34:21 PM
Significant discoveries lead to the improvement of the lives of humanity.    One out of the three possible outcomes leads to a marginal improvement.   I say marginal because I have watched many seasons of Airline disasters.   Despite the FAA and similar organizations around the world doing a great job of analyzing the cause of aircraft accidents, they will never eliminate them no matter how many changes are enacted.

If a lab accident turns out to be the cause, similar to successful crash investigations, change/improvement recommendations will be made but they will unlikely to significantly impact humanity.   Hell when you consider all the years of germ warfare research along with all the years of disease study, the frequency of lab accidents (assuming this one beats the odds and turns out to be a lab accident) are exceedingly rare.   So the impact even if a major flaw (if there was an accident, it was likely the failure of multiple systems/procedures) is discovered and corrected will be minimal.

Rich: I've got to credit a solid response when I see one. You didn't convince me, but it was well-thought-out and impressed the heck out of me.

There are certainly more important matters, viewing things in the long term, but never forget: (1) the "wrong" virus could at least theoretically extinguish all human life very quickly (thankfully, this one wasn't it); and (2) we were "lucky" (in a sense) to find and make available effective vaccines as rapidly as we did... or the end result of even this particular version of COVID might have been many magnitudes worse that it may turn out to be.

In any event, I'll be sure to make a copy of your response and include some version of it in my reply to your next thread about global warming.

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 01:30:43 PM
Rich: If this particular COVID thread is deemed "political" then IMO all other COVID threads posted on the Front Porch must be political also (and therefore banned).

I don't see how to distinguish one COVID thread from another; I can post a reply mentioning conservatives, liberals, R's or D's & then say the original topic was political because it invited such a response.

If anyone can tell me how to decide which COVID threads are political and which are not, please fill me in and I'll gladly follow those guidelines.

In short, I think it's a sad day... not only for us, but in general, when we can't discuss science without reference to politics.

The origins of the virus are a global, humanitarian issue.  Determining which politicians or scientists were CORRECT or INCORRECT a year ago (or today) is IMO of utterly no importance.

Bob

It can be hard to detangle covid from politics.  The NYT and WaPo both now claim that their opposition to the lab leak theory was Trump's and Pompeo's fault for not disclosing those intelligence reports basically claiming they had no choice but to call it BS. 


Meanwhile:

Quote

I seem to be the kiss-of-death for this topic...hope I don't kill this thread a 2nd time.

Back to the science...

What about the furin cleavage site?  The junction between the S1 and S2 proteins appears to have been man-made.  Nobel-prize winning biologist David Baltimore called the furin cleavage site a "smoking gun" that the virus was man-made.  Is this not enough evidence to at least warrant an investigation?

Now, what can be done if the lab-leak hypothesis proves true?  First, if the gain-of-function research led to the lab-release (and admittedly there is only circumstantial evidence for lab-release at the moment) then there are some obvious changes that need to be made.  First, the BLS safety rating of such research needs to be increased.  Dr. Shi's lab was--according to her own published work--operating on coronaviruses at BLS2 and BLS3.  (Interestingly, the only pictures of Dr. Shi being released right now to the press show her in a space suit, i.e. BLS4 equipment.)

Second, other questions abound.  What other mutations of SARS2 did the WIV find? Where are they now? Have they been destroyed? Is gain of function research still ongoing? 

A full investigation means that the records of experiments need to be available to the investigative team.  Researchers have been denied access to these records.

Finally, I sent the Nicholas Wade article to a friend of mine (Ph.D. in analytic chemistry, 30+ years in the biological imaging industry) and he found the article to be sufficient evidence to warrant further investigation.  Here is Wade's article, fyi.

https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

I'm also going to ping two other microbiologist Ph.D. friends with the same.  I'll report back what they say. 

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 01:48:05 PM
Rich: I've got to credit a solid response when I see one. You didn't convince me, but it was well-thought-out and impressed the heck out of me.

There are certainly more important matters, viewing things in the long term, but never forget: (1) the "wrong" virus could at least theoretically extinguish all human life very quickly (thankfully, this one wasn't it); and (2) we were "lucky" (in a sense) to find and make available an effective vaccines as rapidly as we did... or the end result of even this particular version of COVID might have been many magnitudes worse that it may turn out to be.

In any event, I'll be sure to make a copy of your response and include some version of it in my reply to your next thread about global warming.

Bob

Bob,

Factually speaking the "wrong virus" can already exist in nature or nature will eventually create it.   The whole point of this virus research is to prevent the "wrong virus" from wiping out humanity.   There is a lot of false and bad politically motivated claims about viruses being created or engineered in this lab. Factually speaking, there is nothing to support those claims.  They were studying Covid viruses that they found in nature (mostly from bats) to help learn more about it.   


That's not to say there are not labs around the world that tinker with viruses to see what sort of mutations can cause what sort of harm (called gain-of-function research).   The creation of virus mutations to help better prepare for a future pandemic is controversial, with good reason.    There are serious questions if the benefits derived (in terms of what we learn about these man-made mutations and how it helps mankind prepare for a future pandemic) have to be weighed against the odds of an accidental release of these manmade viruses.   

In many ways that particular debate reminds me of the debate over nuclear power.   

Quote from: jimmyz on May 25, 2021, 02:05:13 PM
It can be hard to detangle covid from politics.  The NYT and WaPo both now claim that their opposition to the lab leak theory was Trump's and Pompeo's fault for not disclosing those intelligence reports basically claiming they had no choice but to call it BS. 

Bob,

Still want to claim that this thread isn't just JimmyZ regurgitating what he learned on FOX News?

Quote from: bldevil on May 25, 2021, 02:07:07 PM

Back to the science...

What about the furin cleavage site?  The junction between the S1 and S2 proteins appears to have been man-made.  Nobel-prize winning biologist  that the virus was man-made.  Is this not enough evidence to at least warrant an investigation?

Science involves examining all the facts and this claim should have been qualified that other experts dispute it:

Kristian G. Andersen
@K_G_Andersen
Infectious diseases & genomics. Immunologist in (voluntary) exile. Minimal sarcasm. Fierce HOA (Hater of Acronyms).



Kristian G. Andersen
@K_G_Andersen

Quote from: bldevil on May 25, 2021, 02:07:07 PM
I seem to be the kiss-of-death for this topic...hope I don't kill this thread a 2nd time.

Back to the science...

bld: Please stop interrupting the "Jimmy-Rich-Bob Show" with your wild conspiracy theories.  LOL   =))

Seriously, I for one would greatly appreciate hearing (through you) from as many other scientists as possible who have the expertise to analyze Wade's reporting and the actual science behind "fiddling" with viruses.

I just hope we're able to keep up with you, so try to present it in a manner in which laypersons can best understand the details (as you have thus far).

Bob

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 02:09:19 PM
Bob,

Factually speaking the "wrong virus" can already exist in nature or nature will eventually create it.   The whole point of this virus research is to prevent the "wrong virus" from wiping out humanity.   There is a lot of false and bad politically motivated claims about viruses being created or engineered in this lab. Factually speaking, there is nothing to support those claims.  They were studying Covid viruses that they found in nature (mostly from bats) to help learn more about it.   


That's not to say there are not labs around the world that tinker with viruses to see what sort of mutations can cause what sort of harm (called gain-of-function research).   The creation of virus mutations to help better prepare for a future pandemic is controversial, with good reason.    There are serious questions if the benefits derived (in terms of what we learn about these man-made mutations and how it helps mankind prepare for a future pandemic) have to be weighed against the odds of an accidental release of these manmade viruses.   

In many ways that particular debate reminds me of the debate over nuclear power.   



Bob,

Still want to claim that this thread isn't just JimmyZ regurgitating what he learned on FOX News?

That's not politics.  That's a real problem if the media is gonna be the megaphone for science.  If they believed the science why didnt they report the science instead of reporting on Trump's lies? 

OK, so there's some disagreement among scientists.  In my opinion, that means more investigation is worthwhile.

If it is NOT worthy of investigation, then why this letter in Science magazine:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1.full

"Theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable. Knowing how COVID-19 emerged is critical for informing global strategies to mitigate the risk of future outbreaks."

"Although there were no findings in clear support of either a natural spillover or a lab accident, the team assessed a zoonotic spillover from an intermediate host as

Quote from: bldevil on May 25, 2021, 02:32:46 PM
OK, so there's some disagreement among scientists.  In my opinion, that means more investigation is worthwhile.

I wanted to give you the credentials of the scientist who I posted disputing the "smoking gun" claims

Kristian G. Andersen, PhD
Professor
Department of Immunology and Microbiology
California Campus


Laboratory Website
Scripps Research Joint Appointments
Professor, Department of Integrative Structural and Computational Biology
Director of Infectious Disease Genomics, Translational Research Institute
Faculty, Graduate Program
Other Joint Appointments
Vice President, Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Consortium
Research Focus
Kristian Andersen is a professor in the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research, with joint appointments in the Department of Integrative Structural and Computational Biology, and at the Scripps Research Translational Institute. Over the past decade, his research has focused on the complex relationship between host and pathogen. Using a combination of next-generation sequencing, field work, experimentation, and computational biology he has spearheaded large international collaborations investigating the emergence, spread and evolution of deadly pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, Zika virus, Ebola virus, West Nile virus, and Lassa virus. His work is highly cross-disciplinary and exceptionally collaborative.

Kristian earned his doctoral degree from the University of Cambridge and performed postdoctoral work in Pardis Sabeti's group at Harvard University and the Broad Institute.

Education
Ph.D., Immunology, University of Cambridge, UK, 2009
B.Sc., Molecular Biology, University of Aarhus, DK, 2004

Professional Experience
Postdoc
Harvard University & Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard

Graduate
University of Cambridge & MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology

Undergraduate
Aarhus University & University of Kent, Canterbury
Awards & Professional Activities
2016, Ray Thomas Edwards Foundation Career Development Award
2016, Pew Scholar in the Biomedical Sciences
2009, Carlsberg Foundation postdoctoral fellowship
2008, Max Perutz prize for "outstanding graduate research"
2005, Carlsberg Foundation scholarship at Churchill College

Quote from: bldevil on May 25, 2021, 02:32:46 PM
If it is NOT worthy of investigation, then why this letter in Science magazine:

bld: I think that's a very fair statement. Wish I had said it as well. Yes, the people of the various countries are not the problem... as with the Israeli-Palestinian issue, the problem is with the power-seekers.  Bob

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 02:36:03 PM
I wanted to give you the credentials of the scientist who I posted disputing the "smoking gun" claims
Kristian G. Andersen, PhD
Professor
Department of Immunology and Microbiology
California Campus

Rich: Thanks. Another guy well worth listening to. I've also heard others dispute the so-called smoking gun observation. It's a bit over my head, so I figure my best course is to just keep listening to both sides.  Bob

B Devil,

I have "unrolled" the Twitter thread with this expert goes into great detail why the "smoking gun" claim is wrong


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1391507230848032772.html

That same expert mentions this article as a must-read to properly understand this topic

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wx5ndx/china-coronavirus-origins-who-mission

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 02:39:52 PM
B Devil,

I have "unrolled" the Twitter thread with this expert goes into great detail why the "smoking gun" claim is wrong


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1391507230848032772.html

Thank you professor.  I have some homework to do!  Not sure I'll get to it before my tee-time this afternoon.  ("tee" time, er, not "tea time".)

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 02:39:09 PM
Rich: Thanks. Another guy well worth listening to. I've also heard others dispute the so-called smoking gun observation. It's a bit over my head, so I figure my best course is to just keep listening to both sides.  Bob

I'm in no-where near a position to judge Dr. Anderson's credentials, I can only assume he is extremely well-versed on the topic.  He did have a hand in establishing the base hypothesis, in this letter of March 17 of last year, that the virus was natural in origin. 

"It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus. "

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Nicholas Wade goes through Anderson's argument in the Nature letter. 

Let's just leave it at there is disagreement among scientists...all of whom I presume to be good people, without axes to grind, who have different opinions on a highly-technical controversial subject.

Quote from: bldevil on May 25, 2021, 02:53:05 PM
I'm in no-where near a position to judge Dr. Anderson's credentials, I can only assume he is extremely well-versed on the topic.  He did have a hand in establishing the base hypothesis, in this letter of March 17 of last year, that the virus was natural in origin. 

"It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus. "

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Nicholas Wade goes through Anderson's argument in the Nature letter. 

Let's just leave it at there is disagreement among scientists...all of whom I presume to be good people, without axes to grind, who have different opinions on a highly-technical controversial subject.

Nicholas Wade is not a scientist.  He is a journalist who published a rather out-there book claiming that the various races are rather different in terms of intelligence, character etc. due to recent evolutionary changes.  Needless to say with the exception of one libertarian scientist, his book was not particularly well received


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Wade

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 02:56:53 PM
Nicholas Wade is not a scientist. 

Rich: All true, and fairly stated.  However, as a reporter who worked for the New York Times and other highly-regarded publications (now semi-retired) he did a very careful crawl through the events, IMO.

In the end, he did personally tilt to the "escaped from a laboratory" view, but also correctly emphasized that it is a close call and that we need to keep digging for more information.

IMO, because his expertise is not in the sciences, his conclusion is worth no more than mine or yours. It's just his personal opinion, which played no part in my regard for the work he did in assembling his article.

Bob

I don't know Nicholas Wade from a hole-in-the-wall.  His article is extremely well-written and states explicitly that it only offers circumstantial evidence for the lab-release theory.  I think the hallmark of reasonable discussion is to admit that your hypothesis is just that, a hypothesis and not revealed truth.  And his article does just that.

He may be a kook but his article isn't, it can stand on its own.  It's not just Wade arguing for investigation of the lab-release hypothesis.  You also have the head of the WHO and a bunch of other eminent biologists asking for the same further investigation.  Note that it is *investigation* that is warranted.  No one has said we can conclude that the lab-release *hypothesis* is corrrect.

Shutting down an investigation into the root cause of the most significant biological event of the last century is not warranted.   Not when the head of the WHO and a number of eminent biologists are saying it should be investigated.

Quote from: bldevil on May 25, 2021, 03:21:39 PM
I don't know Nicholas Wade from a hole-in-the-wall.  His article is extremely well-written and states explicitly that it only offers circumstantial evidence for the lab-release theory.  I think the hallmark of reasonable discussion is to admit that your hypothesis is just that, a hypothesis and not revealed truth.  And his article does just that.

He may be a kook but his article isn't, it can stand on its own.  It's not just Wade arguing for investigation of the lab-release hypothesis.  You also have the head of the WHO and a bunch of other eminent biologists asking for the same further investigation.  Note that it is *investigation* that is warranted.  No one has said we can conclude that the lab-release *hypothesis* is corrrect.

Shutting down an investigation into the root cause of the most significant biological event of the last century is not warranted.   Not when the head of the WHO and a number of eminent biologists are saying it should be investigated.

pursuing all possibilities without bias is good is just good science.

The right/GOP making political hay because their favorite theory hasn't been disproven is literally no better than the Chinese government who is doing the exact same thing and making political hay because their favorite theory that the virus was imported into China via frozen/refrigerated foods hasn't been disproven either. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 03:29:46 PM
pursuing all possibilities without bias is good is just good science.

The right/GOP making political hay because their favorite theory hasn't been disproven is literally no better than the Chinese government who is doing the exact same thing and making political hay because their favorite theory that the virus was imported into China via frozen/refrigerated foods hasn't been disproven either.

Rich: In case you missed this (I have a subscription to The Washington Post on-line site) here is the Glenn Kessler (their official fact-checker) time-line for the issue being covered in this thread.  I hate to post the whole thing (and I will edit out the stuff not in the actual time-line which relates to politicians) but most of you would otherwise run into the pay-wall and not be able to see it.  The actual time-line has not been edited so it does contain references to politicians (to set up the scientific responses).

Below is the link for those who have a paid subscription, and below that is the time-line.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/25/timeline-how-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-suddenly-became-credible/

The source of the coronavirus that has left more than 3 million people dead around the world remains a mystery. But in recent months the idea that it emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV)

Nice summary Bob.

A long summary but pretty short on actual scientific fact.  It pretty much confirmed what I have been saying-  The Republicans/right is overhyping the lab escape scenario just as the Chinese government is overhyping the imported via frozen food theory. 


Who would have thought America's right and China's left would find common ground overhyping longshot theories for political gain  =))

The heck with all the Covid talk.      What The Biden administration is doing at the southern border is nothing short of propaganda and unbelievable . By that I mean why is the Biden restricting all free press , Congress people and basically everyone from covering the souther border crisis .  Absolutely disgusting covering up the real story . Not allowing the American people to see what is going on there!
Isn

Quote from: Woody on May 25, 2021, 10:06:55 PM
The heck with all the Covid talk.      What The Biden administration is doing at the southern border is nothing short of propaganda and unbelievable . By that I mean why is the Biden restricting all free press , Congress people and basically everyone from covering the souther border crisis .  Absolutely disgusting covering up the real story . Not allowing the American people to see what is going on there!
Isn

Quote from: Woody on May 25, 2021, 10:06:55 PM
The heck with all the Covid talk.      What The Biden administration is doing at the southern border is nothing short of propaganda and unbelievable . By that I mean why is the Biden restricting all free press , Congress people and basically everyone from covering the souther border crisis .  Absolutely disgusting covering up the real story . Not allowing the American people to see what is going on there!
Isn

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 07:35:04 PM
A long summary but pretty short on actual scientific fact.  It pretty much confirmed what I have been saying-  The Republicans/right is overhyping the lab escape scenario just as the Chinese government is overhyping the imported via frozen food theory. 


Who would have thought America's right and China's left would find common ground overhyping longshot theories for political gain  =))

Do you think the head of the WHO has Republican/right-leaning tendencies?   I think you're reading political motivations into the discussion.  The dissent on this issue seems to transcend political affiliations.

Quote from: bldevil on May 26, 2021, 10:23:59 AM
I think this issue of the border--whatever your take on it-- is a non-sequitur in terms of the thread of this topic.

What I think is the multiple threads over hyping a remote possibility is motived purely by politics.   You know I admire the cunning of Jimmy and Bob, this topic is the perfect distraction from the real issues like the criminally negligent handling of the Covid crisis by a former President and the shameful behavior of so many Republicans and Conservatives who refused to wear masks, refused to help contain the spread of the virus, denying the virus was dangerous, refused to social distance and now refuse to get vaccinated.   At the start of this crisis, I said we should all act in a manner that people would point as to say, "there is a man/woman I want in my foxhole".  Instead, the majority of them are people I wouldn't want anywhere near my foxhole as they were more pro-Covid than anything.  They were just so self-centered and self-absorbed and unwilling to make any sort of sacrifice for the good of their country or neighborhood or even their family.

Still, the real genius of this over-hyping stunt is that it produces zero blowback when (or if) the cause is found and it turns out it came from nature (which is by far the most likely outcome).  Bob and Jimmy (and those just like them) will simply shrug their shoulders and say, "well it was a theory and we investigated, I didn't say or do anything wrong".  Still, the distraction from real issues and the demonization of China goals will still have been served regardless of the ultimate findings.

You know one thing I kind of like about Trump is that wile he is a pathological liar, he doesn't do subtle.   He has a tendency to say the implied part or the silent subtext part out loud.    So it was no shock to hear this:

QuoteFormer President Donald Trump claimed in an interview Tuesday that

I think we can discuss this issue without getting into the politics, albeit that is hard.

For example, I do not think investigating this issue is a right-wing publicity stunt.  It could have been a publicity stunt, I agree with you on that.

You made comments on Trump (criminally negligent) and I don't think that is germane to the point under discussion.  (As an aside, I think Trump is an idiot who routinely says stupid stuff, a lot of it seemingly on purpose.). A broken clock can still be right twice a day, and Trump may have been right on this one.  As far as Trump goes, if he does turn out to be correct on this one, it just raises his abysmal speculation-driven batting average a couple of points.  So let's discard Trump...I hope...from the discussion. It's not about him.

What about the head of the WHO? Does he have a right-wing political agenda?  Do the 18 scientists calling for more investigation into lab-leak also have a right-wing political agenda?

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 07:35:04 PM
A long summary but pretty short on actual scientific fact.  It pretty much confirmed what I have been saying-  The Republicans/right is overhyping the lab escape scenario just as the Chinese government is overhyping the imported via frozen food theory. 

Who would have thought America's right and China's left would find common ground overhyping longshot theories for political gain  =))

Rich: IMO, you are making two fundamental mistakes in your approach to (and analysis of) this topic.  The first one is in this post, the second will be in a second post below it.

These are not major errors, but just quibbles.

Mistake #1: Your commentary above is correct, except that IMO you should just "leave it lay" where it is instead of trying to pile onto it a political point.  In other words, yes, both factions you mentioned have over-hyped.  But that should be the end of it.  I think both sides here would agree to that, and that should be sufficient.  The issue is unsettled.  Both sides are pushing hard for their respective views, but THEIR VIEWS are not what is important, so don't give them any more importance than they deserve (which is IMO to simply acknowledge their existence).  It is the views of the scientific experts (who have yet to reach a conclusion or a consensus) that are important.  At this point, we just wait for them all to re-examine the situation and tell us what they believe.

Bob

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 26, 2021, 10:38:37 AM
This is Donald Trump pretty much going to the heart of what Jimmy and Bob were trying to accomplish with their politically motivated scheme.

Still I am a very small minority.  I have little doubt this stunt will hurt our nation as so many of the other stunts (like the one that caused the January 6th attack) have done.

Rich: Mistake #2: IMO, you are allowing the fact that Trump is involved on one side of the unresolved issue to cause you to over-react. 

What difference does it make what Trump thinks?  Who cares which side is proven correct.  You and I know Trump (like many people) is merely taking a guess. 

He may have access to a few intel reports we don't know about, so we tip our hat to that fact and move on.  I don't think it advances the discussion to over-blow the issue.

Bob

Quote from: bldevil on May 26, 2021, 10:50:59 AM
I think we can discuss this issue without getting into the politics, albeit that is hard.

For example, I do not think investigating this issue is a right-wing publicity stunt.  It could have been a publicity stunt, I agree with you on that.

You made comments on Trump (criminally negligent) and I don't think that is germane to the point under discussion.  (As an aside, I think Trump is an idiot who routinely says stupid stuff, a lot of it seemingly on purpose.). A broken clock can still be right twice a day, and Trump may have been right on this one.  As far as Trump goes, if he does turn out to be correct on this one, it just raises his abysmal speculation-driven batting average a couple of points.  So let's discard Trump...I hope...from the discussion. It's not about him.

What about the head of the WHO? Does he have a right-wing political agenda?  Do the 18 scientists calling for more investigation into lab-leak also have a right-wing political agenda?

B-Devil,

Factually speaking we have been investigating the possibility since the beginning.  The political stunt is that we have two threads devoted to talking about it.   Not just devoted to talking about it but there has been the creation of a false narrative that something has changed that has made this possibility more probable (or as Donald Trump and other say, "it happened this way")

The fact is nothing has changed.   There was a report produced from WHO that has said based on their preliminary study it's highly unlikely.  That's a report neither Jimmy nor Bob ever posted because the right-wing media driving the false narrative doesn't want to take about it.   There have been some in the scientific community who don't agree with the report's assessment and want more study.

I mean even you are claiming "Trump may have been right".    Here's the thing he was wrong, even if what he claimed turns out to have happened.   You don't accuse others of wrongdoing without any proof and that is what Trump did and despite 4 years of that immoral/unethical behavior being normalized (with the help of the right-wing media), it's still a bad thing to do.   That is wrong it's a horrible thing to do and even if the accusations are proven to be true, it's still an immoral act.

There is a difference between accusation and exploring all possibilities no matter how the odds favor any given possibility.     Accusations and implied accusations are a weapon.    Investigations are a way to the truth.  It's not an accident that these two very different (both morally and factual) actions have been so badly conflated. 

QuoteDo the 18 scientists calling for more investigation into lab-leak also have a right-wing political agenda?

Can you explain WHY they felt the need to write a letter literally demanding exactly what the head of WHO said they were planning on doing?  He said he planned on more investigation (what the band of 18 demanded)

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 26, 2021, 11:00:35 AM
Rich: Mistake #2: IMO, you are allowing the fact that Trump is involved on one side of the unresolved issue to cause you to over-react. 

What difference does it make what Trump thinks?  Who cares which side is proven correct.  You and I know Trump (like many people) is merely taking a guess. 

He may have access to a few intel reports we don't know about, so we tip our hat to that fact and move on.  I don't think it advances the discussion to over-blow the issue.

Bob

I will give you credit, you did a pretty good job dressing it up, but when you go to the heart of your point, this is just another "he has Trump derrangement syndrome" defense.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 26, 2021, 11:14:18 AM
I will give you credit, you did a pretty good job dressing it up, but when you go to the heart of your point, this is just another "he has Trump derrangement syndrome" defense.

Rich: I see why you say that but... not quite... rather, I think you foresee potential political repercussions if the lab theory is proven. There could be repercussions for one or both sides no matter what happens next.

But IMO anyone who would use convincing proof of either theory as a club against the other side (unless it is shown there was intentional misconduct) will try to use that club even in the absence of conclusive proof.

Conversely, there is a lot of good that could come out of this... if the lab theory is proven correct, then important and significant enhanced safety changes will be made in all labs worldwide, and that is a good thing. 

If the animal-jump theory is proven correct, our knowledge of that aspect of microbiology and other connected sciences will be enhanced greatly (especially so because this truly is/was a novel virus).

But I see no positives forthcoming if we do not conduct a full investigate of the events and circumstances (like a 9/11 commission.... that seems to be the "buzz-word-of-the-month in Washington these days LOL).

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 26, 2021, 12:21:52 PM
Rich: I see why you say that but... not quite... rather, I think you foresee potential political repercussions if the lab theory is proven. There could be repercussions for one or both sides no matter what happens next.

But IMO anyone who would use convincing proof of either theory as a club against the other side (unless it is shown there was intentional misconduct) will try to use that club even in the absence of conclusive proof.

Conversely, there is a lot of good that could come out of this... if the lab theory is proven correct, then important and significant enhanced safety changes will be made in all labs worldwide, and that is a good thing. 

If the animal-jump theory is proven correct, our knowledge of that aspect of microbiology and other connected sciences will be enhanced greatly (especially so because this truly is/was a novel virus).

But I see no positives forthcoming if we do not conduct a full investigate of the events and circumstances (like a 9/11 commission.... that seems to be the "buzz-word-of-the-month in Washington these days LOL).

Bob

Bob,

The conversation that has been generated by the right (and even propagated by the mainstream media) is already serving the purposes of the right regardless of the eventual findings as you pointed out.  The right is already (and I have provided multiple quotes to prove just that) are misrepresenting science's rigid system of seeking the truth as proof that their unfounded accusations were right all along. 


As to the virus being "novel" we already had the "novel" coronavirus commonly known as SARS and the "novel" coronavirus known as MERS (both of those came from animals).   Both of those coronaviruses were actually far more deadly.     It's sort of ironic, but Covid managed to kill so many more people by virtue of being less deadly.    Had it been more like SARS or MERS it would have laid up all those that Covid infected which would have greatly reduced the spread.   The feature of Covid that allowed it to kill so many was to be LESS deadly (to the point of not even producing symptoms) allowed it to quickly spread around the entire globe. 

Novel means new and unique, new viruses occur frequently and they are all given that label.   

Since almost all of these viruses are zoonotic in origin, there will be little learned (beyond satisfying scientific curiosity) in learning which animal it came from (unless it was an unusual interaction with an animal)

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 26, 2021, 12:35:27 PM
Novel means new and unique, new viruses occur frequently and they are all given that label.   

Since almost all of these viruses are zoonotic in origin, there will be little learned (beyond satisfying scientific curiosity) in learning which animal it came from (unless it was an unusual interaction with an animal)

Rich: I understand, and it's a good point but... (I hope I have this right; if not, I have no doubt you will correct me LOL)....

The precise type of mutation for THIS coronavirus is different from the microbes you cited. I am far from sure, but I think it is MORE novel, and that is a reason why some scientists suspect it may have been man-made.

Here's the link... it's a very scientifically-worded document... not fit for Giants' fans like me LOL... but I believe that's at least part of what they're saying.

Bob

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210217/The-origin-of-SARS-CoV-2-furin-cleavage-site-remains-a-mystery.aspx

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 26, 2021, 01:03:59 PM
Rich: I understand, and it's a good point but... (I hope I have this right; if not, I have no doubt you will correct me LOL)....

The precise type of mutation for THIS coronavirus is different from the microbes you cited. I am far from sure, but I think it is MORE novel, and that is a reason why some scientists suspect it may have been man-made.

Here's the link... it's a very scientifically-worded document... not fit for Giants' fans like me LOL... but I believe that's at least part of what they're saying.

Bob

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210217/The-origin-of-SARS-CoV-2-furin-cleavage-site-remains-a-mystery.aspx

Two points, this references preprints servers.   This did nearly as much as the right-wing propaganda machine to create misinformation during the Covid crisis.   Preprint means these are papers that were published that haven't been peer-reviewed.  Peer review is a critical safeguard in science, and the heavy use of preprint servers defeated that safeguard and allowed misinformation to propagate


Because the safeguard was removed this OB/GYN doc just pushed the now pretty much debunked claims of the infamous furin cleavage site

At this point, the consensus is there is nothing about the structure of the virus to suggest it was man-made.  Doesn't preclude being man-made but there is nothing to suggest it was.   Still, isn't creating doubt and suspicion the point of this thread? 

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 26, 2021, 01:10:38 PM
Two points, this references preprints servers.   This did nearly as much as the right-wing propaganda machine to create misinformation during the Covid crisis.   Preprint means these are papers that were published that haven't been peer-reviewed.  Peer review is a critical safeguard in science, and the heavy use of preprint servers defeated that safeguard and allowed misinformation to propagate

Because the safeguard was removed this OB/GYN doc just pushed the now pretty much debunked claims of the infamous furin cleavage site

At this point, the consensus is there is nothing about the structure of the virus to suggest it was man-made.  Doesn't preclude being man-made but there is nothing to suggest it was.   Still, isn't creating doubt and suspicion the point of this thread?

Rich: I see that now (it's right there at the bottom of the page after the conclusion, but I quit reading when the article ended).

I don't think the article has been around long enough for peer review but I will try to search for it, assuming you have not already done so.

Thanks for the help.

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 26, 2021, 01:29:23 PM
Rich: I see that now (it's right there at the bottom of the page after the conclusion, but I quit reading when the article ended).

I don't think the article has been around long enough for peer review but I will try to search for it, assuming you have not already done so.

Thanks for the help.

Bob

I don't think the article itself rises to the level of a study or report, so it will not be peer-reviewed.   Rather I talking about the study she referenced in her article.  Actually, she mentioned the Preprint server at the beginning.  I am assuming that you were not familiar with what a preprint server was or the ramifications of preprint.   You are correct at the bottom of the article they did explain preprint.   Circling back, an OB/GYN doctor really isn't qualified to speak on the genetic structure of a virus.    That's why her article referenced the study.   As I said, non-peer-reviewed studies are not safe sources of scientific intel.

Looks like Biden has joined the right-wing conspiracy theorists:

"President Biden said Wednesday that he has asked the intelligence community to determine the origin of the coronavirus pandemic, a major departure from the previous White House position that the World Health Organization should lead efforts to uncover the contagion

And now Fauci concurs there is more need for investigation:
"
At a White House briefing Tuesday, Anthony S. Fauci, the government

I come to realize none of you guys really understand how science works.  You all are posting articles and making claims.   This isn't politics.  The loudest and the most articles don't "win".   In science, we sit back and wait for the results from the data and the studying.   I can understand why Donald Trump betrayed his country to ask Ukraine to investigate Biden.   You guys wouldn't care to wait for results you would have just said he is guilty.


That said, I disagree with Biden setting a timeline for a report.   That is not how you achieve proper or good results.   An investigation should be allowed to take the time it needs

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 26, 2021, 07:07:36 PM
I come to realize none of you guys really understand how science works.  You all are posting articles and making claims.   This isn't politics.  The loudest an the most articles doesn't "win".   In science we sit back and wait for the results from the data and the studying.   I can understand why Donald Trump betrayed his country to ask the Ukraine to investigate Biden.   You guys wouldn't care to wait for results you would have just said he is guilty.


That said, I disagree with Biden setting a timeline for a report.   That is not how you achieve proper or good results.   An investigation should be allowed to take the time it needs

Everything is politics with these guys. It's fed to then constantly by Fox, News max
, and other hate machines.

The "gods" of Facebook speaketh....

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-no-longer-banning-posts-161904256.html

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 27, 2021, 09:00:36 AM
The "gods" of Facebook speaketh....

https://about.fb.com/news/2020/04/covid-19-misinfo-update/#removing-more-false-claims

Can't wait for the actual facts to come out from an investigation.   You have to keep pushing BS like this to promote your political agenda.    The only thing you accomplished with this post is to bump up your political propaganda thread.   Talking about a remote possibility is just nearly as beneficial to your political agenda as actually proving it happened.   This isn't remotely science and this thread has NOTHING to do with science :boooo:

Mighty,

I have stayed completely out of this thread, because you and I are toxic.  However I am going to post to hopefully make you take a step back and realize how you make everything political.  These are some of your replies from just the 1st 3 pages of this thread.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 27, 2021, 09:08:43 AM

Can't wait for the actual facts to come out from an investigation.   You have to keep pushing BS like this to promote your political agenda.    The only thing you accomplished with this post is to bump up your political propaganda thread.  Talking about a remote possibility is just nearly as beneficial to your political agenda as actually proving it happened.  This isn't remotely science and this thread has NOTHING to do with science :boooo:

Rich: Politicians politicized the virus.  I personally had NOTHING to do with it, and I don't believe I should pay the price of their stupidity by having to "tread softly" when posting news related to the virus.

Facebook's changed stance vis-a-vis posts relating to the virus is very instructive.  It shows conclusively IMO that it is a BAD IDEA to try to censor scientific thought.

QUALIFIED people expressing minority viewpoints MUST ALWAYS AND FOREVER be heard, and never muzzled or evaluated by non-scientists.  If they're wrong, they'll all too soon make fools of themselves.

Bob

Quote from: philo43 on May 27, 2021, 09:56:00 AM
Mighty,

I have stayed completely out of this thread, because you and I are toxic.  However I am going to post to hopefully make you take a step back and realize how you make everything political.  These are some of your replies from just the 1st 3 pages of this thread.

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 27, 2021, 10:01:27 AM
Rich: Politicians politicized the virus.  I personally had NOTHING to do with it, and I don't believe I should pay the price of their stupidity by having to "tread softly" when posting news related to the virus.

Facebook's changed stance vis-a-vis posts relating to the virus is very instructive.  It shows conclusively IMO that it is a BAD IDEA to try to censor scientific thought.

QUALIFIED people expressing minority viewpoints MUST ALWAYS AND FOREVER be heard, and never muzzled or evaluated by non-scientists.  If they're wrong, they'll all too soon make fools of themselves.

Bob

Your "news" about Facebook (along others) was not news.   If I take your claims about this being a thread about science at face value, then we are talking about the virus and its origins.   In no way shape or form did Facebook's opinion about the possibility of a lab accident change the FACT or the SCIENCE in terms of discovering the origins of the virus.  So it was not "news" other than in the political propaganda sense

Instead, it was just you engaging in the right wing's favorite logical fallacy-   argumentum ad populum


In other words, if Facebook (and others) said that, then Covid must have escaped from a lab because look at all the people who are saying it's possible


This has NOTHING to do with censorship and everything to do with the extremely toxic right-wing propaganda that has been and continues to harm our nation.     

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 27, 2021, 10:06:41 AM
Your "news" about Facebook was not news.   If I take your claims about this being a thread about science at face value, then we are talking about the virus and its origins.   In no way shape or form did Facebook's opinion about the possibility of a lab accident change the FACT or the SCIENCE in terms of discovering the origins of the virus.  So it was not "news" other than in the political propaganda sense

Instead, it was just you engaging in the right wing's favorite logical fallacy-   argumentum ad populum

In other words, if Facebook said that, then Covid must have escaped from a lab because look at all the people who are saying it's possible

This has NOTHING to do with censorship and everything to do with the extremely toxic right-wing propaganda that has been and continues to harm our nation.   

Rich:  The fact that numerous unqualified people agree with (or like) a qualified scientific hypothesis has no bearing upon the correctness or validity of the hypothesis.  Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 27, 2021, 10:22:17 AM
Rich:  The fact that numerous unqualified people agree with (or like) a qualified scientific hypothesis has no bearing upon the correctness or validity of the hypothesis.  Bob

Which was why your post with the Facebook link had NOTHING to do with the alleged scientific discussion that was supposed be taking place on this thread.   

Plus the lab escape scenario is not a "scientific hypothesis" it's a possible origin of the Covid virus.   I am not even sure what a "qualified scientific hypothesis" is, other than a choice of wording to make an unlikely scenario sound more plausible (which again has always been the ONLY purpose of this thread).

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 27, 2021, 10:32:41 AM
Which was why your post with the Facebook link had NOTHING to do with the alleged scientific discussion that was supposed be taking place on this thread.   

Plus the lab escape scenario is not a "scientific hypothesis" it's a possible origin of the Covid virus.   I am not even sure what a "qualified scientific hypothesis" is, other than a choice of wording to make an unlikely scenario sound more plausible (which again has always been the ONLY purpose of this thread).

Rich: Rather than "qualified scientific hypothesis" I should have said "scientific hypothesis posed by a qualified person."  Too much shorthand sometimes makes for poor communication.  Nevertheless, my point is valid. Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 27, 2021, 10:22:17 AM
Rich:  The fact that numerous unqualified people agree with (or like) a qualified scientific hypothesis has no bearing upon the correctness or validity of the hypothesis.  Bob

Hypothetical trumps reality as of late and influenced by politics more so, than it used to. This has caused the nation, that "united we stand" to become "devided we stand". Of course it did trickle down to social media, forums, etc., where people on the diffrent side of the division judge each other by their stands. There's no common denominator anymore, constructive discussions, etc., just arguments going back and force on very minor points, resulting in not reading the "wrong side's" viewpoints.

In the meantime, politics as usual continues in DC; people are too busy arguing about events, points, that has no impact on their lifes...

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 27, 2021, 10:47:00 AM
Rich: Rather than "qualified scientific hypothesis" I should have said "scientific hypothesis posed by a qualified person."  Too much shorthand sometimes makes for poor communication.  Nevertheless, my point is valid. Bob

There is a reason why the scientific paper produced by the World Health Organization never used the words "scientific hypothesis" because it doesn't meet the definition (but it sure does make an unlikely scenario sound more likely.

Here is the paper

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/final-joint-report_origins-studies-6-april-201.pdf?sfvrsn=4f5e5196_1&download=true


Here is a good description of what a scientific hypothesis is

https://www.livescience.com/21490-what-is-a-scientific-hypothesis-definition-of-hypothesis.html


The WHO paper uses correctly only uses the term hypothesis as that is the proper term.  This is the current list of all of them:

1  Direct zoonotic transmission
2 Introduction through intermediate host followed by zoonotic transmission
3 Introduction through the cold/food chain
4 Introduction through a laboratory incident

It's funny none of them have been ruled out and number 4 is among the least likely but if people read this thread (minus mine a few other people's posts) they would think that there was only one possible, number 4, and it's been all but proven. 

Since there has been and there will likely not be any new scientific or factual data on this matter, the continued promotion of this thread serves only a political agenda

Rich: Thanks.  All of that is very helpful. 

"A hypothesis is a suggested solution for an unexplained occurrence that does not fit into current accepted scientific theory. " 

At first glance, it would seem to apply here because there are four suggested solutions to an unexplained occurrence (sudden appearance of the virus in humans).  BUT....

"Every scientific theory starts as a hypothesis."  The four possible explanations are not hypotheses because each has been proven to be true at one time or another in one situation or another.

So a correct statement would be that there are four currently accepted scientific theories to explain the sudden appearance of the virus in humans.  That makes sense.

Bob

As someone who's done research at the post-graduate level, I think I have a passing knowledge of how the scientific method works.  So I'll make some general comments which I hope can help frame this discussion.

The whole point of most of this thread was the question of whether there was enough evidence to warrant further investigation of the lab-release theory.  I don't think anyone has claimed that there was any proof at all of a lab-release. 

Now, some items I would like to emphasize.  First, facts and true statements exist independent of whoever states them.  I don't care if Einstein says "2+2=4" or if my next neighbor says "2+2=4", it is a true statement.  A lot of discussion on the last 8 pages here centered around who said what and what is their background.  Facts can stand on their own.  If they can't, then they are not facts. 

Next, I agree with Mighty that there are many times when a hypothesis does NOT warrant further investigation.  No geographer is going to start an investigation into whether the Earth is flat.  However, when a hypothesis is obviously wrong, there is an overwhelming lack of dissent among experts in the field.  Put 1000 geographers into a room and not one of them will agree that an investigation into a flat Earth is worthwhile.

Second, when it comes to technical discussions, virology in this case, we undeniably have to rely on the observations of experts in the field.  This thread, if you review it, has listed literally dozens of experts who think the lab-release hypothesis warrants further investigation.  There are many scientists who think it does not warrant further investigation.  If the lab-release hypothesis were as wrong as the-earth-is-flat idea, then there would not be a significant level of dissent.  Experts calling for more investigation include the head of the WHO, 18 scientists from pre-eminent universities including Baric who knows firsthand of the research going on at the WIV, and now Dr. Fauci.  To claim that all of these people have some right-wing axe to grind, or are have been massively misled, is simply ludicrous.

Third, this discussion is technical but there are elements of it which are accessible to non-experts.  SARS and MERS were zoonotic and supposedly Covid is as well.  However, as opposed to SARS and MERS, no intermediate transmission via animals have been found.  Dozens of thousands of bat samples have been tested and Covid has not been found in nature.  This weakens the conclusion of zoonotic origin.  Covid's intermediate mutations, similar to SARS and MERS, are also missing.  Covid appeared on the scene in a super-contagious form.  None of these observations, and many more like them, offer anything but circumstantial evidence.  But the layperson can figure out that the zoonotic theory of origin is not air-tight.

In general, the scientists who I've been around do not hesitate to call into question the fundamental preconceptions of their area.  They view the withstanding of such questioning part of the scientific method.  But they won't do so unless there is at least some indication of fruitful research.  They won't waste their time unless there is at least some possibility of an intellectual payoff.

Understanding the origin of the most calamitous biological event in at least a hundred years warrants a lot of investigation.  Until an airtight conclusion is reached.

 

For the record, my guess is that--after hopefully lots of further research--the zoonotic hypothesis will eventually be confirmed as the most likely Covid-origin explanation.

Quote from: bldevil on May 27, 2021, 12:59:22 PM
As someone who's done research at the post-graduate level, I think I have a passing knowledge of how the scientific method works.  So I'll make some general comments which I hope can help frame this discussion.

The whole point of most of this thread was the question of whether there was enough evidence to warrant further investigation of the lab-release theory.  I don't think anyone has claimed that there was any proof at all of a lab-release. 

Now, some items I would like to emphasize.  First, facts and true statements exist independent of whoever states them.  I don't care if Einstein says "2+2=4" or if my next neighbor says "2+2=4", it is a true statement.  A lot of discussion on the last 8 pages here centered around who said what and what is their background.  Facts can stand on their own.  If they can't, then they are not facts. 

Next, I agree with Mighty that there are many times when a hypothesis does NOT warrant further investigation.  No geographer is going to start an investigation into whether the Earth is flat.  However, when a hypothesis is obviously wrong, there is an overwhelming lack of dissent among experts in the field.  Put 1000 geographers into a room and not one of them will agree that an investigation into a flat Earth is worthwhile.

Second, when it comes to technical discussions, virology in this case, we undeniably have to rely on the observations of experts in the field.  This thread, if you review it, has listed literally dozens of experts who think the lab-release hypothesis warrants further investigation.  There are many scientists who think it does not warrant further investigation.  If the lab-release hypothesis were as wrong as the-earth-is-flat idea, then there would not be a significant level of dissent.  Experts calling for more investigation include the head of the WHO, 18 scientists from pre-eminent universities including Baric who knows firsthand of the research going on at the WIV, and now Dr. Fauci.  To claim that all of these people have some right-wing axe to grind, or are have been massively misled, is simply ludicrous.

Third, this discussion is technical but there are elements of it which are accessible to non-experts.  SARS and MERS were zoonotic and supposedly Covid is as well.  However, as opposed to SARS and MERS, no intermediate transmission via animals have been found.  Dozens of thousands of bat samples have been tested and Covid has not been found in nature.  This weakens the conclusion of zoonotic origin.  Covid's intermediate mutations, similar to SARS and MERS, are also missing.  Covid appeared on the scene in a super-contagious form.  None of these observations, and many more like them, offer anything but circumstantial evidence.  But the layperson can figure out that the zoonotic theory of origin is not air-tight.

In general, the scientists who I've been around do not hesitate to call into question the fundamental preconceptions of their area.  They view the withstanding of such questioning part of the scientific method.  But they won't do so unless there is at least some indication of fruitful research.  They won't waste their time unless there is at least some possibility of an intellectual payoff.

Understanding the origin of the most calamitous biological event in at least a hundred years warrants a lot of investigation.  Until an airtight conclusion is reached.

B-Devil,

Both you and Bob are intentionally or unintentionally misrepresenting my point.   My point is and it's pretty much been proven that a long-shot possibility has been overhyped  (to support a right-wing political agenda).  It is not as you and Bob suggest/imply that I don't think all possibilities should be continued to be examed. 

If you read the two sentences I bolded, you can see that you inadvertently proved my point.   Had this not been a politically driven thread and one base PURELY on science and the quest for the truth, there wouldn't have been the posting "literally dozens of experts who think the lab-release hypothesis warrants further investigation"  against ZERO postings from the "many scientists who think it does not warrant further investigation".

Had this actually been a thread devoted to a scientific discussion there would have been articles and posts from experts on BOTH SIDES of the debate.   As you so astutely pointed out, this thread didn't do that.

"My point is and it's pretty much been proven that a long-shot possibility has been overhyped  (to support a right-wing political agenda).  It is not as you and Bob suggest/imply that I don't think all possibilities should be continued to be examed. "

I agree that politicians will overhype long-shot possibilities.  The lab-leak hypothesis may have been over-hyped.  I'm not sure, to be candid.  That's a distinction I don't much care about.  Overhyped or not, I'm interested in where the virus came from.

But...are you saying that "all possibilities should be continued to be examined" including the lab-leak possibility? 

Quote from: bldevil on May 27, 2021, 01:31:47 PM
.

But...are you saying that "all possibilities should be continued to be examined" including the lab-leak possibility?

I feel like this question is akin to "when did you stop beating your wife?"

I posted the 4 possibilities included in the WHO report which included the lab incident scenario

I said they should continue to examine "ALL" possibilities

I am not sure exactly how anyone could have read all of that and thought "well I am still not sure Rich wants to examine all the possibilities including lab incident"

As for the lab incident hypothesis being overhyped, how are you not sure?  You literally said there has been a very lopsided (and I think we both agree unscientific) cherry-picking of facts and points of view.  That lopsidedness that you noted favored the exact same scenario that is the political favorite of America's right-wing/GOP.

As I said early, I see no difference from the people who started and continue to promote this thread trying to overhype the lab incident scenario as what the Chinese government is doing overhyping their favorite the cold/food chain scenario.   

Rich: Your analysis does not account for historical background.  What was the situation when this thread was begun? 

For over a year, there was little interest (or mention of) the lab theory. Only recently, factors that lead to early dismissal of - or ignoring - it have been reconsidered.  This thread announces its re-emergence.

I believe it's unnecessary to post articles espousing the animal-to-man theory here, because (1) that is not the topic; and (2) that theory has had a one-year head start. This thread IMO is the "catch-up" phase.

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 27, 2021, 01:49:57 PM
Rich: Your analysis does not account for historical background.  What was the situation when this thread was begun? 

For over a year, there was little interest (or mention of) the lab theory. Only recently, factors that lead to early dismissal of - or ignoring - it have been reconsidered.  This thread announces its re-emergence.

I believe it's unnecessary to post articles espousing the animal-to-man theory here, because (1) that is not the topic; and (2) that theory has had a one-year head start. This thread IMO is the "catch-up" phase.

Bob

The history was topic was already introduced a highly political manner and discussed before being shut down as we tried to rid the front porch of political discussion.   So this topic had already been discussed.

It was reposted for one reason and one reason only and it was so that you and Jimmy could continue to indulge your obsession of promoting your political views on the front porch.   

It's also true the America's right-wing hate/propaganda machine has been overhyping this remote possibility for political gain.

I really think that you and Jimmy should consider cutting back on your consumption of right-wing propaganda so you don't feel the need to regurgitate it hear on our front porch

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 27, 2021, 01:58:48 PM
The history was topic was already introduced a highly political manner and discussed before being shut down as we tried to rid the front porch of political discussion.   So this topic had already been discussed.

It was reposted for one reason and one reason only and it was so that you and Jimmy could continue to indulge your obsession of promoting your political views on the front porch.   

It's also true the America's right-wing hate/propaganda machine has been overhyping this remote possibility for political gain.

I really think that you and Jimmy should consider cutting back on your consumption of right-wing propaganda so you don't feel the need to regurgitate it hear on our front porch

Rich: That's YOUR version of the story. I disagree (and suspect I'm not alone).  Further, persistently accusing members of "consuming right-wing propaganda" only serves to illustrate a preoccupation with politics.  Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 27, 2021, 02:12:03 PM
Rich: That's YOUR version of the story. I disagree (and suspect I'm not alone).  Further, persistently accusing members of "consuming right-wing propaganda" only serves to illustrate a preoccupation with politics.  Bob

Bob,

To indulge your argumentum ad populum mindset, I am hardly the only one on this thread that has taken note of its political nature

Also it's not an accusation when it's true.    It's a statement of fact.  It's like you guys don't think I take notice of the sources when you post links.


Also, it's rather humorous that you try and characterize my desire to eliminate political threads as "a preoccupation of politics"


It's almost like this thread wasn't started with an article from "the Hill"

A publication that describes itself as:

"Since 1994, The Hill has reported on the intersection of politics and business"

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 27, 2021, 02:23:39 PM
Also, it's rather humorous that you try and characterize my desire to eliminate political threads as "a preoccupation of politics"

.... and I find it ironic that you try to characterize your preoccupation with politics as a desire to eliminate political threads.  Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 27, 2021, 02:30:14 PM
.... and I find it ironic that you try to characterize your preoccupation with politics as a desire to eliminate political threads.  Bob

One of the reasons we did away with political threads is because it inflames people's passions.  You and others wouldn't be so passionate about promoting and defending this thread if it weren't political.   I can tell you if someone objected to my thread about 60s TV shows I would have zero emotional investment in protecting that thread.

It's ONLY because it's political that you are so passionate about this thread (especially in light of being already discussed in a previous thread that was locked thread for its political content)


Edit to add, I went to outside here to confirm that despite you claims to the contrary this was a political thread:


I went to Reddit's subforum for Conservatives.   Their mission statement:

QuoteMission Statement:

We provide a place on Reddit for conservatives, both fiscal and social, to read and discuss political and cultural issues from a distinctly conservative point of view.

I counted 11 threads hyping or discussing of the China lab incident theory in just the past 24 hours alone.  For a "non-political topic" it sure was popular among people who share your political points of view

This is an editorial from David Leonhardt, of the NYTimes, from today.  I think it's a worthwhile read and summarizes many of the points made here on both sides of the debate.  If you didn't already know, Leonhardt most assuredly occupies a left-of-center viewpoint:

"
May 27, 2021   

By David Leonhardt

Good morning. The lab-leak theory is everywhere. We have an explainer.


Suddenly, talk of the Wuhan lab-leak theory seems to be everywhere.

President Biden yesterday called on U.S. intelligence officials to

Bdevil,

There was literally nothing new in that article.  I am honestly curious, if you guys are not over hyping a remote possibility for political gain, what is the point of repeating the same things over and over across the 9 pages of this thread and however many pages of the first thread on the same topic?

Nevermind I found my answer



The Covid-19 origin story has massive political consequences
Stephen Collinson Profile
Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN

Updated 12:32 AM ET, Thu May 27, 2021

Quote(CNN)A growing storm over the origins in China of Covid-19 has explosive political implications for the United States at home and abroad, as well as the dueling legacies of two presidents that will be defined by the pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/27/politics/biden-trump-china-coronavirus-origins/index.html


This former advisor to Mike Pence also explains this political thread and why you guys repeat yourself over and over again promoting the lab theory

Quote
Considering the abuse to which the intelligence process was subjected during the last year of the Trump administration, there are ample reasons for Biden to ask for a new, updated report on how SARS-CoV-2 came to be.

The true origins of the virus may never be known. But as long as there are political points to be scored, many alumni of the Trump administration don

Unfortunately, every function of the Federal Government ( including this study underway by Biden ) has a political slant to it.
Politics dominates Washington and an honest debate on anything is very difficult and nearly impossible to happen.
So to blame or discard points of view by

Quote from: Woody on May 29, 2021, 08:01:01 AM
Unfortunately, every function of the Federal Government ( including this study underway by Biden ) has a political slant to it.
Politics dominates Washington and an honest debate on anything is very difficult and nearly impossible to happen.
So to blame or discard points of view by

With your conclusion on what you perceive I am going to conclude on this mater just proves my point that politics plays a roll in all discussions including yours.
Pompeo saying something without proof or sources ? Dare I mention 4 year Russian collusion with no proof ? Or is that another right wing conspiracy theory? 
Or was The Trump admin. just covering it up ? I think I might know your answer to that question. Both sides play politics in everything and Washington is a reflection of the American people , on that I agree.

Quote from: Woody on May 29, 2021, 08:51:18 AM
With your conclusion on what you perceive I am going to conclude on this mater just proves my point that politics plays a roll in all discussions including yours.
Pompeo saying something without proof or sources ? Dare I mention 4 year Russian collusion with no proof ? Or is that another right wing conspiracy theory? 
Or was The Trump admin. just covering it up ? I think I might know your answer to that question. Both sides play politics in everything and Washington is a reflection of the American people , on that I agree.

Woody,

It seems you and people who share your far-right views (like your claim that the left is a political party and they are the party of hate) seemed to have mastered the Soviet Union's "what about" propaganda tool (I even had someone try to use that to defend the anti-American traitors who attacked our capital on January 6th).    What I will give you credit for is using false equivalency to disguise your whataboutism.

In case you are unfamiliar with the term whataboutism John Oliver does a great job explaining it


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RS82JNd0YzQ




What was glaring in its omission in your "well both sides/whataboutism" statement was addressing the issue that you will ONLY accept the results of the Covid investigation if it supports your political agenda


Edit to add:  I find it amazing how Republicans and right-wingers like to claim that Muller found Trump innocent when he found Trump had obstructed justice and it was that obstruction of justice/coverup which prevented Muller from finding definitive proof of Trump's collusion with Russia

Not sure what to think of this:



British Professor Angus Dalgleish and Norwegian scientist Dr. Birger S

Quote from: brownelvis54 on May 29, 2021, 11:45:12 PM



www.foxnews.com/world/explosive-study-claims-to-prove-chinese-scientists-created-covid

I think after the terror attack of January 6th, consuming the anti-American propaganda spewed by FOX "News" is unwise and frankly something a patriotic American shouldn't be doing

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 30, 2021, 07:56:04 AM
I think after the terror attack of January 6th, consuming the anti-American propaganda spewed by FOX "News" is unwise and frankly something a patriotic American should be doing

Rich: Nothing scientific in this post. Just pure, unadulterated political bias. "It must be wrong, it came from the Fox News website."  Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 30, 2021, 08:07:46 AM
Rich: Nothing scientific in this post. Just pure, unadulterated political bias. "It must be wrong, it came from the Fox News website."  Bob

Bob,

If you are getting your "science" from FOX "news", you are only fooling yourself

(null)
So if everything on Fox News is fake  . Which networks are not fake news and should be relied on for accurate information? Just asking what others watch or where they  get information.
I watch Fox and others

Quote from: Woody on May 30, 2021, 08:31:48 AM
(null)
So if everything on Fox News is fake  . Which networks are not fake news and should be relied on for accurate information? Just asking what others watch or where they  get information.
I watch Fox and others

The topic is the origin of the virus.  Give us a list of "lies" from Fox News about the virus. Or would you have to look to the main stream media, the New York Times and the Washington Post for those?  Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 30, 2021, 08:51:43 AM
The topic is the origin of the virus.  Give us a list of "lies" from Fox News about the virus. Or would you have to look to the main stream media, the New York Times and the Washington Post for those?  Bob

Bob,

We have already witnessed FOX news lie about something as important as election integrity to further their political agenda.    Only a foot would think they wouldn't lie about the origins of the virus to further those same political agendas.

Here is the thing about trust, once you get caught betraying the nation by telling harmful lies, you don't get a presumption of truth-telling after that

(null)
For some reason I can

(null)
So when many Leading Democrats , former Leaders including Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and many others said the 2016 election was stolen by Trump , and Polosi and others objected to the electoral college vote of several states in the senate. They were traitors as well ?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Quote from: Woody on May 30, 2021, 09:14:09 AM
(null)
For some reason I can

Quote from: bldevil on May 27, 2021, 04:44:53 PM
This is an editorial from David Leonhardt, of the NYTimes, from today.  I think it's a worthwhile read and summarizes many of the points made here on both sides of the debate.  If you didn't already know, Leonhardt most assuredly occupies a left-of-center viewpoint:

"
May 27, 2021   

By David Leonhardt

Good morning. The lab-leak theory is everywhere. We have an explainer.


Suddenly, talk of the Wuhan lab-leak theory seems to be everywhere.

President Biden yesterday called on U.S. intelligence officials to

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 30, 2021, 09:45:58 AM
bl: That about sums it up.  I think the guy gave a really good explanation.  I had missed that article.  Thanks for posting it.  Bob

Not really it was a poorly done article that in the end creates a false impression that each scenario is equally plausible.   

(null)
So these facts are lies ? I actually saw them say everything I said .
Again do you think they were right or wrong to challenge the 2016 election

Quote from: Woody on May 30, 2021, 10:16:48 AM
(null)
So these facts are lies ? I actually saw them say everything I said .
Again do you think they were right or wrong to challenge the 2016 election

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 30, 2021, 10:42:28 AM
Over half the Republicans believe Trump is President.  Tell me did that anti-American false belief come from the right or MSM???

Nearly a quarter of Republicans believe the whole  Satan-worshipping pedophiles nonsense.  Again did that come from the right or from MSM????

Complaining that the MSM wasn't praising Trump enough is not a sound or logical reason to dismiss the MSM in favor of right-wing propanda instead.

What happened to no politics? A lot of whatabouts throw about in this thread. The conversation is far off topic. So after a lot of discussion, pretty much everyone agrees that there exists a possibility of either theory. Doesn't matter if it's a distinct or remote possibility. Until proven otherwise and it's very possible that the truth is never disclosed even if the powers that be come to a conclusion.

Quote from: Ed Vette on May 30, 2021, 10:51:06 AM
What happened to no politics? A lot of whatabouts throw about in this thread. The conversation is far off topic. So after a lot of discussion, pretty much everyone agrees that there exists a possibility of either theory. Doesn't matter if it's a distinct or remote possibility. Until proven otherwise and it's very possible that the truth is never disclosed even if the powers that be come to a conclusion.

This topic was always just polics so it's hardly off topic.   Our right-wing friends know we may never know the truth.   So they are playing the political game of exclusively talking and promoting the theory they like.   Perception trumps reality when it comes to politics.