I am sure you have all seen lots of headlines and stories about this submarine that has failed to return to the surface following an expedition to view the Titanic wreckage off the coast of Newfoundland. Needless to say my heart goes out to those inside, and I hope very much that there will be a miraculous rescue.
Given how quiet the NFL is, I thought I'd post a thread on this to get updates/thoughts on this event.
A couple of things I've read that are of interest:
(1) The oxygen supply is deemed to be 70 to 96 hours. However I'm not sure exactly when that clock started. If it started right when they submerged then it's pretty dire. I don't know if that refers to some additional supply or not that they have. The article below (which came out one hour ago) suggests it might be about 50 hours.
(2) Most (if not all) submersibles have a feature known as "drop weight." The idea being that if the vehicle completely malfunctions, it can drop weight that causes it to rise to the surface on nothing but its own buoyance. The fact that that has not happened with this particular submarine suggests it might be trapped or caught, possibly in the wreckage itself.
Overall a nerve-wracking story. I am hoping for good news here but I'm preparing myself for it not to be.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/submarine-titantic-missing-submersible-tourists-latest-b2360568.html
My questions would be why hasn't the "paperwork" been cleared up? Is there a homing device beacon on that ship that can send out a distress signal? Or a distress beacon that can be released to the surface? What other obstacles would they encounter besides the wreckage? Are there no other ships that can submerge that deep?
Quote from: Ed Vette on June 20, 2023, 10:37:02 AMMy questions would be why hasn't the "paperwork" been cleared up? Is there a homing device beacon on that ship that can send out a distress signal? Or a distress beacon that can be released to the surface? What other obstacles would they encounter besides the wreckage? Are there no other ships that can submerge that deep?
The only question above that I have read a clear answer to is the last one.
There are other vessels that can go that deep and potentially pull this one up, but they are extremely few in number.
Here is a quote from the below article:
"If it has gone down to the seabed and can't get back up under its own power, options are very limited," Greig said. "While the submersible might still be intact, if it is beyond the continental shelf, there are very few vessels that can get that deep, and certainly not divers."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/06/20/titanic-tourist-submarine-missing-live-updates/70336871007/
My money is on the failure of the acrylic viewport. They claim they would see cracking before it failed, but I have heard of many large acrylic aquariums failing without warning.
I just read an article starting that there are currently 40-41 hours worth of oxygen left. That is as of approximately 1pm EST. As of now there are no reports that they have even located the sub.
I really hope a miracle can be pulled off here but I'd be being less than fully honest if I said I was very optimistic.
I have read a lot of comments on NYT articles and other sites, and there is clearly a lot of resentment out there for the people who had the means to embark on this trip purely for thrill-seeking reasons. I understand why people may feel that way, but on a human level all that stuff needs to go out the window right now, in my opinion at least. All of that can certainly be discussed and explored if these people are rescued. Right now all I care about is these people's survival, personally.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 20, 2023, 02:05:28 PMI just read an article starting that there are currently 40-41 hours worth of oxygen left. That is as of approximately 1pm EST. As of now there are no reports that they have even located the sub.
I really hope a miracle can be pulled off here but I'd be being less than fully honest if I said I was very optimistic.
I have read a lot of comments on NYT articles and other sites, and there is clearly a lot of resentment out there for the people who had the means to embark on this trip purely for thrill-seeking reasons. I understand why people may feel that way, but on a human level all that stuff needs to go out the window right now, in my opinion at least. All of that can certainly be discussed and explored if these people are rescued. Right now all I care about is these people's survival, personally.
The amount of air matters if they have some sort of emergency and have to float back to the surface untethered. I understand the passengers are bolted in, so it is conceivable they can't get out without outside assistance. So best case, they are bobbing around on the surface awaiting rescue.
They lost contact with the submersible about halfway down. So I find it unlikely (but not impossible) that something happened (maybe complete loss of power) that would cause the vessel to sink to the bottom, unable to surface. Nothing can dive that deep (at least an asset that can get there in time) to rescue the crew.
For me, the most likely scenario was a structural failure that allowed the high-pressure water to fill the vessel and kill everyone on board quickly. The vessel was unregulated and unlicensed by any sort of regulatory authority. The technology is pretty cutting-edge. Cutting-edge technology often runs the risk of unforeseen failures. You had a carbon fiber pressure vessel mated to titanium endcaps and the acrylic viewport. That design is under immense pressure at the bottom of dives, and the entire pressure vessel undergoes dramatic pressure changes in the 2-mile dives.
This is all extreme engineering without much prior history/lessons learned to fall back on.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 20, 2023, 02:15:49 PMThe amount of air matters if they have some sort of emergency and have to float back to the surface untethered. I understand the passengers are bolted in, so it is conceivable they can't get out without outside assistance. So best case, they are bobbing around on the surface awaiting rescue.
They lost contact with the submersible about halfway down. So I find it unlikely (but not impossible) that something happened (maybe complete loss of power) that would cause the vessel to sink to the bottom, unable to surface. Nothing can dive that deep (at least an asset that can get there in time) to rescue the crew.
For me, the most likely scenario was a structural failure that allowed the high-pressure water to fill the vessel and kill everyone on board quickly. The vessel was unregulated and unlicensed by any sort of regulatory authority. The technology is pretty cutting-edge. Cutting-edge technology often runs the risk of unforeseen failures. You had a carbon fiber pressure vessel mated to titanium endcaps and the acrylic viewport. That design is under immense pressure at the bottom of dives, and the entire pressure vessel undergoes dramatic pressure changes in the 2-mile dives.
This is all extreme engineering without much prior history/lessons learned to fall back on.
These theories all make sense. Clearly it is very possible they have all perished already. If that is indeed the case, I suspect your theory is probably what happened.
The other thing I keep reading is that they may have become entangled in the Titanic wreckage itself. If that's the case, finding them will not be that difficult, although an actual successful rescue seems highly improbable.
Although this is highly different, the last rescue mission I can recall that got this level of global attention was one those young boys in Thailand were trapped deep inside a cave with their soccer coach. Although that was deeply worrying at the time, the boys had at least been located, and rescue people were able to bring them food and water while they figured out to get them out. This one seems much less hopeful, unfortunately.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 20, 2023, 02:24:26 PMThese theories all make sense. Clearly it is very possible they have all perished already. If that is indeed the case, I suspect your theory is probably what happened.
The other thing I keep reading is that they may have become entangled in the Titanic wreckage itself. If that's the case, finding them will not be that difficult, although an actual successful rescue seems highly improbable.
Although this is highly different, the last rescue mission I can recall that got this level of global attention was one those young boys in Thailand were trapped deep inside a cave with their soccer coach. Although that was deeply worrying at the time, the boys had at least been located, and rescue people were able to bring them food and water while they figured out to get them out. This one seems much less hopeful, unfortunately.
Jeff,
I understand the tender ship lost contact with the submersible halfway down. I am not sure what the company's procedure is when that happens. Normally the loss of such a function would scrub the mission and require an immediate return to the surface. Since this is a company operating for profit and without regulatory oversight, I can't say they didn't continue with the mission minus communications with the tender vessel. In my research, I read the submersible was supposed to check in every 15 minutes. So the loss of communications would be known pretty quickly.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 20, 2023, 02:28:37 PMJeff,
I understand the tender ship lost contact with the submersible halfway down. I am not sure what the company's procedure is when that happens. Normally the loss of such a function would scrub the mission and require an immediate return to the surface. Since this is a company operating for profit and without regulatory oversight, I can't say they didn't continue with the mission minus communications with the tender vessel. In my research, I read the submersible was supposed to check in every 15 minutes. So the loss of communications would be known pretty quickly.
I read that too. Exactly as you said, the every 15 minutes "ping" stopped pretty quickly. So whatever went wrong seemingly happened quite a while ago.
One question - if there was an implosion/collapse of the sub, leading to near-instant death of those onboard, would there not have been various debris and other objects that are buoyant and floated to the surface, easily viewable by drones, helicopters, etc? I have no idea if that would have happened - I am just asking. I mean there are/were items on board and perhaps part of the structure itself that are buoyant, no? If the whole thing broke up under the immense atmospheric pressure of the water, wouldn't some of the parts have maybe floated all the way up?
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 20, 2023, 02:53:10 PMI read that too. Exactly as you said, the every 15 minutes "ping" stopped pretty quickly. So whatever went wrong seemingly happened quite a while ago.
One question - if there was an implosion/collapse of the sub, leading to near-instant death of those onboard, would there not have been various debris and other objects that are buoyant and floated to the surface, easily viewable by drones, helicopters, etc? I have no idea if that would have happened - I am just asking. I mean there are/were items on board and perhaps part of the structure itself that are buoyant, no? If the whole thing broke up under the immense atmospheric pressure of the water, wouldn't some of the parts have maybe floated all the way up?
If there was a catastrophic implosion, it's possible some debris surfaced. Although the pieces would be small and the ocean is quite big. Remember they were a mile down from the support vessel so where it surfaced may have been nowhere near the ship.
I tend to think of the sort of failure where the vessel quickly flooded with water, which would have created a negative buoyancy situation (the air pocket that added to the buoyancy would have been lost) and the ship would have just sunk to the bottom.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 20, 2023, 02:57:30 PMIf there was a catastrophic implosion, it's possible some debris surfaced. Although the pieces would be small and the ocean is quite big. Remember they were a mile down from the support vessel so where it surfaced may have been nowhere near the ship.
I tend to think of the sort of failure where the vessel quickly flooded with water, which would have created a negative buoyancy situation (the air pocket that added to the buoyancy would have been lost) and the ship would have just sunk to the bottom.
All makes sense, thanks. Good point about the likely vastness of the area where any (relatively small) debris might have surfaced, given the distance to the bottom (or wherever they were when the malfunction occurred).
My understanding is there are no known vehicles in the area capable of a rescue in this situation. Nor is there any such vehicle in existence that can be manned. It will have to be a remotely controlled device somehow, and I don't know where the closest one even is.
Even if some or all of these 5 individuals are still alive, and even if the sub is located (say in the next 8 or so hours), an actual successful rescue of them in time seems extremely improbable, bordering on impossible. I hope I'm wrong about that but it's just hard to envision based on what I have read.
Just read this comment in the comments section of the latest WSJ article. It is written by someone claiming to have worked on submarines (presumably ex-military):
"As someone who served on submarines, traveling under the surface of the ocean is a life filled with risks (fire and flooding being at the top of the list). If they have been catastrophically lost, the best case would be an implosion due to atmospheric pressure as that would be instantaneous. But, as this submersible ( I don't equate it to a submarine) was rated for extremely deep depths, I'm not sure it was caused by an implosion and lean towards either a fire or flooding. Regardless of their levels of wealth, I'm saddened by their situation. "
Man bootleg submarine controlled by a Nintendo controller.
I saw the document they have to sign. It basically says this sub is made by duct tape and not certified by anyone and if you die its your fault for getting in the rickety sub.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on June 20, 2023, 06:45:52 PMMan bootleg submarine controlled by a Nintendo controller.
I saw the document they have to sign. It basically says this sub is made by duct tape and not certified by anyone and if you die its your fault for getting in the rickety sub.
I will say, the pictures of the $30 Nintendo X-Box controller used to control the sub made me shudder a little when I saw them.
They are reporting noises in the ocean in the search area. Not sure what that means
Well, this was somewhat encouraging to read about first thing this am:
https://www.geo.tv/latest/494647-banging-sounds-heard-from-area-where-submersible-went-missing
I went to bed last night thinking the most likely scenario was that everyone was long since dead. Reading the above though gives me some hope that at least someone is alive down there.
Whether that's the case is uncertain, and even if it is the case, actually rescuing living people in this situation is beyond difficult. So I still think the odds of a good outcome are low, but no doubt they are better now than they were before these noises were discovered.
They're really up against the clock now though. The estimates would have these folks running out of air sometime between 2am and 6am early tomorrow AM. Obviously, I have zero expertise on any of this stuff, but I have speculated to myself that these oxygen time estimates might be a bit generous. People tend to need more oxygen when they're deeply stressed and agitated. If you think of oxygen intake by 5 human beings that are in a normal, everyday mindset, and then you consider what the intake looks like if it's 5 human beings who are terrified and fearing for their lives, my guess is that it's pretty different. I have no idea if these estimates are accounting for that. I also have no idea how much water they have down there, but 3 days without water is about the maximum limit for any human being. So that's also a bit of a concern. Food is not.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 21, 2023, 07:16:04 AMThey are reporting noises in the ocean in the search area. Not sure what that means
Yes - just posted the same update at the same time.
I think the odds are pretty good that it's a human. Banging every 30 minute interval is not something a fish is going to do I don't think.
I'd like to think they can now locate the sub pretty quickly if these noises persist. I would think they have the technology to do that, despite the vastness of the area.
A few things come to mind. First of all this is not just a tragedy it's a setback for Ocean exploration. We know more about outer space than the depths of our oceans.
I wondered if one person aboard would kill the other passengers to extend the air supply.
Is it possible that an underwater creature damaged the vessel? A whale or school of sharks could infect quite an assault.
Quote from: Ed Vette on June 21, 2023, 08:21:57 AMA few things come to mind. First of all this is not just a tragedy it's a setback for Ocean exploration. We know more about outer space than the depths of our oceans.
I wondered if one person aboard would kill the other passengers to extend the air supply.
Is it possible that an underwater creature damaged the vessel? A whale or school of sharks could infect quite an assault.
I think there are all kinds of possibilities as to the actual cause of this disaster, including marine life interference (as you mentioned).
As for killing someone, I doubt that very much. Even in a deranged, desperate state, it's hard to see that instinct prevailing. Also, what is the upside of doing that? If you kill one or two of the people on board, and then you still end up dying, you are going to your grave a selfish, cold blooded murderer. If you do it and happen to survive, you're likely going to jail for a long time or the rest of your life. Just doesn't seem like tons of upside.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 21, 2023, 08:26:47 AMI think there are all kinds of possibilities as to the actual cause of this disaster, including marine life interference (as you mentioned).
As for killing someone, I doubt that very much. Even in a deranged, desperate state, it's hard to see that instinct prevailing. Also, what is the upside of doing that? If you kill one or two of the people on board, and then you still end up dying, you are going to your grave a selfish, cold blooded murderer. If you do it and happen to survive, you're likely going to jail for a long time or the rest of your life. Just doesn't seem like tons of upside.
Of course not and not very likely unless desperation and madness set in. Imagine being locked into a small space for such a long time. I wouldn't rule out suicide if it were even possible. It's got to be a nightmare for those people.
If there are survivors, I think it's a long shot that a rescue can be enacted before their oxygen is depleted.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 21, 2023, 08:44:08 AMIf there are survivors, I think it's a long shot that a rescue can be enacted before their oxygen is depleted.
I agree. Still extremely low odds, despite signs of potential life. As of right now I have not seen any headlines that they have even located the sub. Once they have located it, it's presumably going to take hours to potentially pull it out. Seems they're only working with maybe 14-16 hours at this point. If they haven't at least pinpointed the location of the sub in the next 4-5 hours you have to think the odds of a good outcome are very close to zero. They already may be.
With that said, the media seems to be pushing a story of hope this AM, but that may just be because that keeps people clicking.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 21, 2023, 08:53:27 AMI agree. Still extremely low odds, despite signs of potential life. As of right now I have not seen any headlines that they have even located the sub. Once they have located it, it's presumably going to take hours to potentially pull it out. Seems they're only working with maybe 14-16 hours at this point. If they haven't at least pinpointed the location of the sub in the next 4-5 hours you have to think the odds of a good outcome are very close to zero. They already may be.
With that said, the media seems to be pushing a story of hope this AM, but that may just be because that keeps people clicking.
If they fail to get rescued, I can't imagine a more gruesome way to die. I mean, they essentially are buried alive under 2 miles of ocean in a tiny tube, just waiting to die with no food or water and likely freezing by now as they likely exhausted their electric heat (and light). If they have been tapping every half hour for days hoping to be rescued...
Quote from: Ed Vette on June 21, 2023, 08:41:02 AMOf course not and not very likely unless desperation and madness set in. Imagine being locked into a small space for such a long time. I wouldn't rule out suicide if it were even possible. It's got to be a nightmare for those people.
I couldn't agree more. They're sitting in close quarters in their own filth (imagine the stench by now), they likely haven't slept a wink in days, and I doubt they have remotely sufficient food/water. It's one thing to endure all that when you have somewhat realistic hope, but the CEO of the company surely knows the specifics on the oxygen supply and has probably informed the others of that by now.
I have to imagine if I were in that situation and I had a somewhat painless suicide option like a suicide pill they give astronauts, I'd seriously consider it and would probably do it at this point. It's easy to sit in comfort in our world and say you wouldn't and that you'd play right up to the whistle, but imagine the hell they're going through both physically and mentally. Really horrible to even think about.
Interesting, there was a whistle blower
https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/20/a-whistleblower-raised-safety-concerns-about-oceangates-submersible-in-2018-then-he-was-fired/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmVkZGl0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANSM0g0__KnMOGzlGreeyEZX0jh7SgIIFjIMbSDPHb8Y9NCFqzHI8mJ50yXq8L6mURRI26_VrI7gf8f5zzSGvw-nFyJebK8S_d9XtA-k5iT-6zMLt8axPAHEMRYcu2hpIXdvc2kJ6zRcSm2JKPPMVWqpN-pOQ_GuuY_PesAJEyY3
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 21, 2023, 10:24:56 AMInteresting, there was a whistle blower
https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/20/a-whistleblower-raised-safety-concerns-about-oceangates-submersible-in-2018-then-he-was-fired/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmVkZGl0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANSM0g0__KnMOGzlGreeyEZX0jh7SgIIFjIMbSDPHb8Y9NCFqzHI8mJ50yXq8L6mURRI26_VrI7gf8f5zzSGvw-nFyJebK8S_d9XtA-k5iT-6zMLt8axPAHEMRYcu2hpIXdvc2kJ6zRcSm2JKPPMVWqpN-pOQ_GuuY_PesAJEyY3
Anytime a whistle blower gets fired, it's frequently because the truth hurts.
More information
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/20/missing-titan-submersible-previous-problems-titanic-dives/
Another interesting (and very sobering) tidbit from the comments section in the WSJ from someone with apparent sub experience:
"Having served on a submarine back in the day, sound under water is difficult to trace for a few reasons. One, sound travels faster in water and there are thermal layers in the ocean that can affect the sound wave. It's a common practice for subs to drop to a lower depth to avoid detection because of thermal layers. Wasn't my department but that's what I recall."
I am reading some (unsubstantiated) speculation now that even if they did locate the sub, they have probably now run out of time to actually get it to the surface and save these individuals.
One other point a friend of mine made was to consider how difficult it is to find things in the ocean, even if you know roughly where they went down. The Titanic itself was not found (in terms of confirming it's location) until 1985. It went down in 1912. This little capsule is at most a pinky-nail in comparison to the Titanic. Granted technology has gotten significantly better over the years, but you have to think the odds of them ever finding this thing at all (even well past the oxygen running out) are not high. Clearly once they're certain these people cannot possibly be alive, they're going to shut the search down.
If they remain down there, would the temperature be low enough to preserve the bodies?
Quote from: Ed Vette on June 21, 2023, 12:09:42 PMIf they remain down there, would the temperature be low enough to preserve the bodies?
I'm guessing not. Certainly not if they're submerged in water. But I don't know.
Once the time is definitely 100% up, I can't see a great deal of effort/resources being put into just finding human remains, in any case.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 21, 2023, 12:15:17 PMI'm guessing not. Certainly not if they're submerged in water. But I don't know.
Once the time is definitely 100% up, I can't see a great deal of effort/resources being put into just finding human remains, in any case.
I was rather thinking that someday in a couple of hundred years it may be discovered and was wondering if the cold water would preserve the bodies somewhat. Although 35% doesn't preserve food so I've answered my own question.
Quote from: Ed Vette on June 21, 2023, 01:16:32 PMI was rather thinking that someday in a couple of hundred years it may be discovered and was wondering if the cold water would preserve the bodies somewhat. Although 35% doesn't preserve food so I've answered my own question.
Yeah I was thinking the same. I would have thought long term preservation would require a deep freeze. Clearly any non-frozen water does not accomplish that.
Officials still don't know what the "banging" is
https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1671570629022056463
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 21, 2023, 03:20:23 PMOfficials still don't know what the "banging" is
https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1671570629022056463
I really hate to say this, but at this point in a way I sort of hope it's not them. The odds of a rescue at this stage (if they are indeed still alive) seem like they're basically zero based on everything I have read.
Not much to say on this topic today, as I think we all know the outcome. Sounds like the authorities have not yet formally pivoted to a "recovery" or "salvage" phase for the operation, but I would imagine that will happen pretty soon. Just terrible all around. If they find that the sub imploded and are somehow able to forensically establish that it happened on Sunday not too long after they initially went down, that will be very good news at this point, sadly.
There were reports this morning of a debris field. This is a new report.
'Landing frame and a rear cover from the submersible' among the debris
We have just had an update from dive expert David Mearns, who says the debris includes "a landing frame and a rear cover from the submersible".
Mearns is a friend of passengers aboard the Titan.
Mearns has told the BBC that the president of the Explorers Club (which is connected to the diving and rescue community), provided this new information.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-65967464
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 22, 2023, 01:42:04 PMThere were reports this morning of a debris field. This is a new report.
'Landing frame and a rear cover from the submersible' among the debris
We have just had an update from dive expert David Mearns, who says the debris includes "a landing frame and a rear cover from the submersible".
Mearns is a friend of passengers aboard the Titan.
Mearns has told the BBC that the president of the Explorers Club (which is connected to the diving and rescue community), provided this new information.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-65967464
I saw this after I made my post but haven't had a chance to read the articles in depth yet today. Assuming this is evidence of an implosion, then that's clearly positive at this point.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 22, 2023, 02:03:33 PMI saw this after I made my post but haven't had a chance to read the articles in depth yet today. Assuming this is evidence of an implosion, then that's clearly positive at this point.
A debris field would indicate implosion rather than flooding. I had sort of bought into the hype of their safety systems. I suspect that all their safety systems were, was hype.
Then again, here are some comments from the founder of the company. Although I would venture to say that life lessons suggest one doesn't put one's life in the hands of a man that used "obscenely" to describe safe.
This is from the man who founded this venture:
Second, tourist subs, which could once be skippered by anyone with a U.S. Coast Guard captain's license, were regulated by the Passenger Vessel Safety Act of 1993, which imposed rigorous new manufacturing and inspection requirements and prohibited dives below 150 feet. The law was well-meaning, Rush says, but he
believes it needlessly prioritized passenger safety over commercial innovation (a position a less adventurous submariner might find open to debate). "There hasn't been an injury in the commercial sub industry in over 35 years.
It's obscenely safe, because they have all these regulations.
But it also hasn't innovated or grown—because they have all these regulations."
Personally, I would never put my life in the hands of a man with such an attitude. It's not that I fear risking my well-being. I have done so many times over my professional life. The thing is, there is a difference between risk for matters that are worth it and taking a risk just to take a sightseeing tour. I believe that risk should always be weighed against reward.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 22, 2023, 02:21:51 PMA debris field would indicate implosion rather than flooding. I had sort of bought into the hype of their safety systems. I suspect that all their safety systems were, was hype.
Then again, here are some comments from the founder of the company. Although I would venture to say that life lessons suggest one doesn't put one's life in the hands of a man that used "obscenely" to describe safe.
This is from the man who founded this venture:
Second, tourist subs, which could once be skippered by anyone with a U.S. Coast Guard captain's license, were regulated by the Passenger Vessel Safety Act of 1993, which imposed rigorous new manufacturing and inspection requirements and prohibited dives below 150 feet. The law was well-meaning, Rush says, but he believes it needlessly prioritized passenger safety over commercial innovation (a position a less adventurous submariner might find open to debate). "There hasn't been an injury in the commercial sub industry in over 35 years. It's obscenely safe, because they have all these regulations. But it also hasn't innovated or grown—because they have all these regulations."
Personally, I would never put my life in the hands of a man with such an attitude. It's not that I fear risking my well-being. I have done so many times over my professional life. The thing is, there is a difference between risk for matters that are worth it and taking a risk just to take a sightseeing tour. I believe that risk should always be weighed against reward.
Totally agree. I think it's fair to say the CEO of OceanGate had a "cavalier" attitude about risk management and safety measures. And I put the word "cavalier" in quotes because I'm trying to be polite given the ongoing events.
I don't want to judge those who have just perished, but I will just say that I don't fully understand the motivation to do something like this. I mean if you were going down to potentially be the first to ever see the shipwreck, then I could get my arms around it (even though I wouldn't do that myself). But this wreck has been discovered, explored in great deal, photographed, videoed, documented, analyzed, etc for years now. So what is the motivation to go down there now? Why would anyone want to accept that kind of personal risk for what seems (to me at least) to be such a marginal payoff?
I also agree that these people did questionable due diligence on this company and its CEO from a safety perspective. Seems like they did little to none at all. There were all kinds of red flags there (of which you have mentioned some).
If the implosion occurred when contact was first lost, I would speculate the debris field would have been dispersed over miles. I'm wondering if it occurred as oxygen was lost or if they decided to self implode, knowing they were not going to be rescued.
Quote from: Ed Vette on June 22, 2023, 03:17:14 PMIf the implosion occurred when contact was first lost, I would speculate the debris field would have been dispersed over miles. I'm wondering if it occurred as oxygen was lost or if they decided to self implode, knowing they were not going to be rescued.
I wasn't aware that self-imploding was even an option or possible.
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1672005585615691777
(https://preview.redd.it/2q4gjy9d0m7b1.jpg?width=508&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e29c062d4b7345f66990f21de3af0404c47a8b89)
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 22, 2023, 07:07:07 PMhttps://twitter.com/ABC/status/1672005585615691777
(https://preview.redd.it/2q4gjy9d0m7b1.jpg?width=508&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e29c062d4b7345f66990f21de3af0404c47a8b89)
Yup. All kinds of speculation now as to why this info was not made more public at the time.
Well, now we know that while all the speculation was going on they were already all dead. No bodies will be recovered because the implosion would be like a raw egg being crushed by an egg.
The one I feel most bad about is the 19 year old who, I read, didn't want to go and was afraid but accompanied his dad for Father's Day.
The thing I don't understand is what the point of the exercise was? Manned submersibles have been going down there for decades with a 100% safety record. And gone even deeper into the Marianis Trench. What advantage was this novel design supposed to have over the tried and true submersibles? It can't just be something like Titanic tourism for the super-rich, can it? I haven't kept up with a lot of the details, and certainly it is a personal tragedy for the crew and their loved ones, but I can't help wondering what was the point?
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CtuqPEaOYWL/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
Sad
@T200 death was likely instantaneous, or at the very least; they likely lost consciousness before drowning.
@DaveBrown74 I understand the military shared the information about the explosion with the search and rescue command. Although, I could understand the operations still being conducted as the noise alone really didn't constitute definitive proof they were dead.
@AZGiantFan I suspect the use of carbon fiber was an effort to reduce costs. The sub made of carbon fiber would be lighter and smaller. As such, it would be easier to ship and handle (in and out of the water). The problem with such cutting-edge tech is you can foresee every issue. Typically when engineering something this cutting edge, you would conduct many tests (unmanned) to see how the materials and the design reacted to repeated cycles of extra high pressure and no pressure (when they were at the surface).
In hindsight, they clearly put too much faith in what they claimed were state-of-the-art hull monitoring technologies. It's quite possible the sensors gave an alarm, but the failure followed immediately, not allowing the pilot the time to try and surface.
I know people love to hate regulations, but there are legit reasons for them.
I keep reading that death was not only instantaneous but so instantaneous that they likely never even knew there was a problem.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 23, 2023, 10:39:58 AMI keep reading that death was not only instantaneous but so instantaneous that they likely never even knew there was a problem.
They were likely blown into smithereens.
The first submarine to implode was the first nuclear-powered sub, the USS Thresher, in April 1963. 129 lives lost. From all I've ever read on this, when there is an implosion, it is instant and human bodies are reduced to nothingness in a small fraction of a second. Imagine a small potato getting hit with a ten ton sledgehammer swinging at close to the speed of sound. Not trying to be morbid here, but it's so instant that the mind doesn't even know what happened. One second you're laughing and joking around, and then you're standing in front of St. Peter wondering "WTF - why am...and how did I get here?"
An interesting article on the legal ramifications of this disaster
https://apnews.com/article/titanic-sub-accident-laws-deep-sea-6d1e100f39a46091ae9895706adbcceb
Years before the tragedy, Rush said in a 2021 interview with the Spanish YouTuber alanxelmundo that he hoped to be remembered as an innovator.
"I think it was General MacArthur who said: 'You're remembered for the rules you break,'" Rush said, smiling.
The CEO acknowledged that he'd "broken some rules" with the Titan's manufacturing but was confident that his design was sound.
"I think I've broken them with logic and good engineering behind me. Carbon fiber and titanium? There's a rule you don't do that," he told alanxelmundo. "Well, I did."
More
https://www.insider.com/oceangate-ceo-stockton-rush-broken-some-rules-titanic-sub-remembered-2023-6
A submarine pilot hired to assess the now-missing Titanic submersible warned in 2018 that its hull monitoring system would only detect failure "often milliseconds before an implosion."
David Lochridge, a submarine pilot and inspector from Scotland, said in court filings that he was fired after expressing concerns about the safety of the Titan — a 22-foot submersible that disappeared on Sunday while carrying five people to see the wreck of the Titanic.
...
Lochridge said he raised "serious safety concerns" in his inspection report, including issues regarding the viewport's design. His primary worry, however, was over a lack of testing on the Titan's hull, Lochridge said in his countersuit.
OceanGate was relying on an "acoustic monitoring system" that would detect when the hull breaks down, Lochridge said in his lawsuit.
But Lochridge warned that the system would "only show when a component is about to fail — often milliseconds before an implosion," and couldn't detect if any existing flaws were already affecting the hull, the lawsuit said.
"Non-destructive testing was critical to detect such potentially existing flaws in order to ensure a solid and safe product for the safety of the passengers and crew," Lochridge's lawsuit said.
However, the submarine pilot said OceanGate told him that the Titan's hull was too thick to scan for weak spots and adhesion issues.
Lochridge said that after he submitted his inspection report, OceanGate fired him and gave the pilot "approximately 10 minutes to immediately clear out his desk and exit the premises."
https://www.insider.com/titanic-submersible-only-warns-milliseconds-before-hull-failure-fired-executive-2023-6
James Cameron (Director of the Titanic) calls the 4-day hunt for the submarine a "charade". He said that all the authorities knew the sub was lost and that the sub parts were found exactly where it was targeted to land, yet pretended it could be anywhere. Not only was the sub found directly under the launch coordinates, it was also the very spot where they heard the last transmission from.
https://nypost.com/2023/06/23/titanic-director-james-cameron-says-search-for-missing-sub-was-nightmarish-charade/
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 23, 2023, 04:55:05 PMJames Cameron (Director of the Titanic) calls the 4-day hunt for the submarine a "charade". He said that all the authorities knew the sub was lost and that the sub parts were found exactly where it was targeted to land, yet pretended it could be anywhere. Not only was the sub found directly under the launch coordinates, it was also the very spot where they heard the last transmission from.
https://nypost.com/2023/06/23/titanic-director-james-cameron-says-search-for-missing-sub-was-nightmarish-charade/
I think Cameron was a bit of a dick. I thought they were dead as well, but I am not going to pretend what I thought was the likely situation was absolute
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 23, 2023, 07:18:41 PMI think Cameron was a bit of a dick. I thought they were dead as well, but I am not going to pretend what I thought was the likely situation was absolute
I agree that he comes across like a dick, but the one thing he said that made perfect sense is "why spend four days searching everywhere except the exact location of the sub's descent", which is where they found all the pieces. That should have been the very first spot to look during the search. Doesn't make much sense to spend days looking everywhere except there :-??
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 24, 2023, 10:48:43 AMI agree that he comes across like a dick, but the one thing he said that made perfect sense is "why spend four days searching everywhere except the exact location of the sub's descent", which is where they found all the pieces. That should have been the very first spot to look during the search. Doesn't make much sense to spend days looking everywhere except there :-??
The search of the ocean floor took longer because they needed to bring in deep sea ROVs.
U.S. Navy ballistic missile subs are made of 2 inch thick steel that is 4x stronger than traditional steel. Those subs are rated to a depth of around 1,000 feet.
To build a submersible out of fiberglass and carbon fiber is a joke. It is not strong at all and once there is any kind of crack, it breaks down quickly. The crime is also what country and agency certified it for use and who insured it. That thing belongs near a beach going underwater, not 13,000 feet underwater 1,000 miles off the coast.
I hope people now realize that all these so-called "adventure" experience to space, underwater, etc are not being handled by military or NASA quality standard equipment.
Quote from: Philosophers on June 24, 2023, 07:25:56 PMU.S. Navy ballistic missile subs are made of 2 inch thick steel that is 4x stronger than traditional steel. Those subs are rated to a depth of around 1,000 feet.
To build a submersible out of fiberglass and carbon fiber is a joke. It is not strong at all and once there is any kind of crack, it breaks down quickly. The crime is also what country and agency certified it for use and who insured it. That thing belongs near a beach going underwater, not 13,000 feet underwater 1,000 miles off the coast.
I hope people now realize that all these so-called "adventure" experience to space, underwater, etc are not being handled by military or NASA quality standard equipment.
Joe,
The sub wasn't certified by any accepted entity. Likely the unique nature of the construction precluded any chance of being certified.
Ego led to their destruction
Quote from: Ed Vette on June 25, 2023, 08:34:27 AMEgo led to their destruction
Except for the kid. All reports from his family suggest that he went against his better judgment. His Dad was just determined.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 25, 2023, 07:45:51 AMJoe,
The sub wasn't certified by any accepted entity. Likely the unique nature of the construction precluded any chance of being certified.
Rich - I wonder then how it got insured because certification is mandatory.
I fully understand that James Cameron has significantly more knowledge on this whole subject than the average joe on the street, but I feel like the media is treating him like he's the foremost authority in the country on it, and he's lapping it up and appearing on any show that will have him.
Quote from: Philosophers on June 25, 2023, 09:50:18 AMRich - I wonder then how it got insured because certification is mandatory.
As I understand it, because the vessel was launched from a tender, it was treated as cargo (regulation-wise) rather than as a vessel in its own right
As a man of science, this meme made me chuckle
(https://i.redd.it/s95kzaloz68b1.jpg)
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 25, 2023, 12:56:21 PMAs I understand it, because the vessel was launched from a tender, it was treated as cargo (regulation-wise) rather than as a vessel in its own right
Rich - I asked my brother who is a Naval Architect and Marine Engineer. He designs both military ships/subs and commercial. He told me while the submersible is on its mother ship it is part of the ship's marine insurance policy however once it goes in the water it is no longer part of the mother ship and is now an independent vehicle and must have its own insurance.
Engineer says OceanGate CEO ignored her submersible warnings: 'Someone is going to be killed'
I assume OceanGate is done now as a company? Or will be? I mean who would ever sign up for one of these trips now?
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 26, 2023, 03:14:56 PMI assume OceanGate is done now as a company? Or will be? I mean who would ever sign up for one of these trips now?
DOA!
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 26, 2023, 03:08:27 PMEngineer says OceanGate CEO ignored her submersible warnings: 'Someone is going to be killed'
Ego
This is a fascinating article on the topic.
https://www.designnews.com/industry/carbon-fiber-safe-submersibles-when-properly-applied
Quote from: Ed Vette on June 25, 2023, 08:34:27 AMEgo led to their destruction
It's downright Biblical.
Pro 16:18
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.
@Ed Vette and
@AZGiantFan I think this seals the deal for your ego verdict
https://www.insider.com/submersible-expert-oceangate-ceo-hull-defect-will-only-get-worse-2023-6
I will say this whole tragedy really proved just how important regulations and regulators are. As soon as the tragedy struck, I started researching. When I first researched, I could find little to nothing that suggested that the submersible and the tours were risky (aside from my engineering knowledge, thinking mixing 3 materials as they did seemed like a bad idea).
A couple of weeks after the tragedy, all the hidden information comes forward. Information that, if widely known would have kept all sane people from taking the tour. That is part of what regulation is about; it's about ensuring if people are taking risks, they are informed risks. In this case, the victims were not informed about the reckless nature and behavior of the owner of this company.
So, in this case, it's sad about the owner paying the ultimate price for his hubris. It's criminal that 3 innocent people were tricked into also paying the ultimate price of the owner's hubris
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 30, 2023, 08:34:23 AMI will say this whole tragedy really proved just how important regulations and regulators are. As soon as the tragedy struck, I started researching. When I first researched, I could find little to nothing that suggested that the submersible and the tours were risky (aside from my engineering knowledge, thinking mixing 3 materials as they did seemed like a bad idea).
A couple of weeks after the tragedy, all the hidden information comes forward. Information that, if widely known would have kept all sane people from taking the tour. That is part of what regulation is about; it's about ensuring if people are taking risks, they are informed risks. In this case, the victims were not informed about the reckless nature and behavior of the owner of this company.
So, in this case, it's sad about the owner paying the ultimate price for his hubris. It's criminal that 3 innocent people were tricked into also paying the ultimate price of the owner's hubris
Re your last sentence, I have pondered whether or not the CEO would be facing criminal action in a hypothetical scenario where others in the sub had died and he had somehow been saved.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 30, 2023, 09:48:12 AMRe your last sentence, I have pondered whether or not the CEO would be facing criminal action in a hypothetical scenario where others in the sub had died and he had somehow been saved.
Since this happened in international waters, I had no idea how things worked. At least until I read this
https://www.technology.org/2018/09/09/can-you-really-commit-crimes-in-the-international-waters-and-get-away-with-it/#:~:text=Is%20murder%20legal%20in%20international,the%20laws%20of%20the%20land.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/14/us/titan-submersible-implode-design.html?unlocked_article_code=xxU4BOesIQsnXNuNt3K1WlB1xS_QsKAupHHMIZ1_ikEvXpPEiiYtQu_33QhSPHBDDfeM4ovwYSnGdMpQJjDNsUve8I-0J4ofvtvYWc_gFEn36BSLwZxgQYKTGDLNDscL2P4VGuqX8NcAQWAaWv1506Zq-DZkgpSon60B_7x1G_SltDQHlxydmeavZDiFjsaGvS6zzvSEXUE3Ny85L57vZvAwVLA3BXxGA3X4qi6e9q-2Y4_P8IrS5KoHvM27bGMGGa0xBFUR3fbhvg69e_OfrCxYBpm4geE723TEiHoqsH-sCWF9ZpSCWTkTblzVq3taKJFA6UgihVuLLzoE16dLavX4oPfDe-AGHbgWjZu1oXVho1Prp-s&smid=url-share
Quote from: Ed Vette on July 15, 2023, 08:06:50 AMhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/14/us/titan-submersible-implode-design.html?unlocked_article_code=xxU4BOesIQsnXNuNt3K1WlB1xS_QsKAupHHMIZ1_ikEvXpPEiiYtQu_33QhSPHBDDfeM4ovwYSnGdMpQJjDNsUve8I-0J4ofvtvYWc_gFEn36BSLwZxgQYKTGDLNDscL2P4VGuqX8NcAQWAaWv1506Zq-DZkgpSon60B_7x1G_SltDQHlxydmeavZDiFjsaGvS6zzvSEXUE3Ny85L57vZvAwVLA3BXxGA3X4qi6e9q-2Y4_P8IrS5KoHvM27bGMGGa0xBFUR3fbhvg69e_OfrCxYBpm4geE723TEiHoqsH-sCWF9ZpSCWTkTblzVq3taKJFA6UgihVuLLzoE16dLavX4oPfDe-AGHbgWjZu1oXVho1Prp-s&smid=url-share
I hundred percent agree with everything stated in the article