Quote from: Uncle Mickey on Today at 10:51:03 AMHe will need to perform at a level that is commensurate with the better talent that is assembled around him.
Provided that the OL under Bracillo takes the expected and hopeful jump to league average or better in the advanced metrics like time to pressure and quality of pressure, and Nabers ends up being closer to OBJ and J'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson rookie year than Rueben Randle, then DJ's production should not just slightly improve but drastically.
I hate placing numbers on this kind of thing because there are so many things that can happen in a season, but I'll play along.
His rookie year he threw for 24TDs and 12 INTs in 12 games. I would fully expect something around that 2:1 per game ratio to justify continuing with him. So something in the area of 34TDs and 17INTs and 4000+ yards over a full season.
4000 yards by the way would put him right around the top 10 of last years QB rankings.
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-passing-yard-leaders-2023-to-2024
For more context 34 TDs would have been top 2 last year.
Top 10 puts him around 25TDs
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-passing-td-leaders-2023-to-2024
So asking for 34 as a barometer to keep him may be a bit extreme lol
25 TDs relative to last years top 10 is probably a fairer number.
It just ain't that complicated. Good gosh!!!
Cheers!