NGT- Caleb Williams

[Jclayton92]

So just watched the holiday bowl, USC vs a really good Louisville team. Caleb Williams sat out declaring for the Draft and redshirt Sophmore Miller Moss started for the first time in his place.

He proceeded to go 23 of 33 for 372 yards 6, YES, 6 tds, with a 69.7 cmp% and a 218 Qb rating.

Floored that a kid making his first start broke Caleb Williams tds in a game record. Then I thought about it even more, yes Moss is talented but he wasn't some highly decorated 5 star, he was a 4 star recruit who seemed decent.

So that got me thinking of Lincoln Riley as a coach, if Williams goes number 1 that will be 3 number 1 overall picks at Qb that he's coached with 4 total in the NFL right now or about to be. (Mayfield, Murray, Hurts, and Williams once drafted)

Murray and Mayfield havent lived up to their billing, and Hurts was Hurts before Riley got him. So is it Lincoln Rileys system or the players? Because now that bowl game makes me almost want to put Maye 1 Daniels 2 and Williams 3. All those Qbs and even now a sophomore with no experience playing phenomenal in Rileys system kind of scares me away from Williams.

Not to say it's the end all be all but that kid never starting and lighting it up, added with Murray and Mayfield lighting it up in college but not really in the NFL makes me want to throw a wet blanket on the Caleb Williams hype train and reasses him as a prospect. At the very least to have a discussion on whether or not Riley produces phenomenal System Qbs, rather than phenomenal pro QB prospects.

[Bob In PA]

J: Very thoughtful and insightful note. In addition to your points, I'll add one more possibility.

Riley and his staff excel at selecting which QB's to go after.

When you pick the right guys, the teaching (coaching) is easier and more productive.

Bob

[DaveBrown74]

Superbly thought-provoking post J-Clay, and very well backed up by facts, patterns, and sharp analysis. Just another example of high quality content from you.

No doubt there are some college coaches/systems that can really make average QBs look good and decent QBs look very good to great. Maybe that's true of Riley. I think it's an astute and valid observation.

I always think it's possible that any QB can underwhelm. Predicting which college QBs will be good in the pros is one of the harder things to do in sports analysis that I have encountered (in any sport). Obviously those who are employed by NFL teams and earning 7 figure salaries get it wrong all the time, and they have a lot more in the way of analytical and predictive resources than fans do. Fans also tend to remember the ones they get right a lot better than the ones they whiff on...

Williams, no doubt, could be a bust or could at least significantly underwhelm relative to expectations. The hype has been off the charts. I would to your comments that USC QBs have a history of underwhelming substantially relative to the hype. Mark Sanchez, Darnold, and Matt Leinart are a few recent examples.

I do think some have cooled on Williams (not just on this board but in general) based on his less than stellar showings in certain games this year as well as some of his off the field demeanor, but he still figures to be the most likely player to go number one.

More likely than not he won't be available to us, although there is a chance he could be through a trade. I will say this much: in the event that we do trade up to get him (I put the odds of that at no higher than 5%), I will have to believe that Schoen and his team have done an immense amount of due diligence on the guy and legitimately believe he will be a star. And I still believe in Schoen. So I'll be totally supportive if that happens, even though I will be the first to acknowledge that there is a lot of risk involved.

[sooners56]

Fair assessment. Mayfield, Murray, and Hurts are all capable QBs who are starting material in the league, obviously! Williams is the most gifted out of all three in my opinion. In watching him take over in the Texas game while at OU to his career at USC his talent jumps off the screen. The throws and plays he makes with his feet are off the charts. He will be the #1 pick in the draft and I expect him to be a high caliber franchise QB, so if somehow the Giants get Williams, I'd be ecstatic. Now I say all that without knowing his mental makeup. Based on some body language and such he may not be suitable for the New York market. That would be the only hesitation I'd have.

[Bob In PA]

Fair assessment. Mayfield, Murray, and Hurts are all capable QBs who are starting material in the league, obviously! Williams is the most gifted out of all three in my opinion. In watching him take over in the Texas game while at OU to his career at USC his talent jumps off the screen. The throws and plays he makes with his feet are off the charts. He will be the #1 pick in the draft and I expect him to be a high caliber franchise QB, so if somehow the Giants get Williams, I'd be ecstatic. Now I say all that without knowing his mental makeup. Based on some body language and such he may not be suitable for the New York market. That would be the only hesitation I'd have.

sooners: It occurred to me that somehow he reminds me of our bad experience with Eli Apple.

Based on the bold print above, I fairly certain you will agree and see why I say that.

I'm afraid if the Giants "force" themselves to take a QB in round 1 it will be this guy, because if we both see that particular problem with Williams, the teams picking ahead of us are likely to see it, too.

Bob

[Ed Vette]

As I've said before, he has all the football skills and physical talent to be the next Mahomes. But he has bust written all over him.

[ozzie]

I think all four of the QB's Riley has recently coached are all no doubt, talented and all four are capable of playing in this league. I think Riley's system is a major contributor to their Colegate success though. It seems if a QB in his system goes down, whoever the backup is, they seem to step in and the transition is barely noticeable.
I think his first gig as HC at USC hasn't gone as well as planned, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him offered a gig as OC in the NFL at some point. (and if I'm being honest, I wouldn't mind it being with the Giants)

[nb587]

Even if it's the system, and I have very little knowledge of college football except what I read and hear, the questions that come up for me is why Riley hasn't been hired by an NFL team and why teams draft system QBs and then don't use the system that brought them success.

[sooners56]

sooners: It occurred to me that somehow he reminds me of our bad experience with Eli Apple.

Based on the bold print above, I fairly certain you will agree and see why I say that.

I'm afraid if the Giants "force" themselves to take a QB in round 1 it will be this guy, because if we both see that particular problem with Williams, the teams picking ahead of us are likely to see it, too.

Bob

I definitely understand but I think a lot of the body language and crying to momma gets overblown. The talent is there so I'd be interested to know what his teammates have to say about him. If his teammates vouch for him then as a teams GM I wouldn't put too much stock into all that nonsense. However, if his teammates bring it up or mention Williams negatively, then I would be weary of drafting him. Either way, unless the Giants trade up, Williams will be someone else's franchise QB or headache.

[Philosophers]

So just watched the holiday bowl, USC vs a really good Louisville team. Caleb Williams sat out declaring for the Draft and redshirt Sophmore Miller Moss started for the first time in his place.

He proceeded to go 23 of 33 for 372 yards 6, YES, 6 tds, with a 69.7 cmp% and a 218 Qb rating.

Floored that a kid making his first start broke Caleb Williams tds in a game record. Then I thought about it even more, yes Moss is talented but he wasn't some highly decorated 5 star, he was a 4 star recruit who seemed decent.

So that got me thinking of Lincoln Riley as a coach, if Williams goes number 1 that will be 3 number 1 overall picks at Qb that he's coached with 4 total in the NFL right now or about to be. (Mayfield, Murray, Hurts, and Williams once drafted)

Murray and Mayfield havent lived up to their billing, and Hurts was Hurts before Riley got him. So is it Lincoln Rileys system or the players? Because now that bowl game makes me almost want to put Maye 1 Daniels 2 and Williams 3. All those Qbs and even now a sophomore with no experience playing phenomenal in Rileys system kind of scares me away from Williams.

Not to say it's the end all be all but that kid never starting and lighting it up, added with Murray and Mayfield lighting it up in college but not really in the NFL makes me want to throw a wet blanket on the Caleb Williams hype train and reasses him as a prospect. At the very least to have a discussion on whether or not Riley produces phenomenal System Qbs, rather than phenomenal pro QB prospects.

Jess - it's not about Riley I think but about USC instead.  You have to understand the advantage USC has over every other school.  Here's what I mean.

Unlike the South and Texas, the two other bed of 5 star players, California is the third but more importantly it is FAR from the other traditional college football university powers.  The Oregon Ducks are closest to LA and they are a 12 hour drive.  If USC is at all relevant, they can and typically do own almost all of the CA 5 star prospects who want to play in a large media market at a top 25 university and be close to home.  Pete Carroll said when he was at USC that he could hold a morning practice then hop in a limo to visit 5 inner city very strong high s hopl football programs and be home for dinner.

Lastly there are certain high schools that have a reputation for producing top high school QBs.  Schools like Mater Dei and Oaks Christian Academy — both are within an hour of USC.

[katkavage]

Whatever Riley's system is shouldn't matter to a pro scout. He has to look at the athlete and see his QB potential. He can't ignore his college stats but they are secondary to how they feel he will transition to the pro game.

[Sem]

Lastly there are certain high schools that have a reputation for producing top high school QBs.  Schools like Mater Dei and Oaks Christian Academy — both are within an hour of USC.

Our daughter teaches at Oaks Christian.

[uconnjack8]

Jess - it's not about Riley I think but about USC instead.  You have to understand the advantage USC has over every other school.  Here's what I mean.

Unlike the South and Texas, the two other bed of 5 star players, California is the third but more importantly it is FAR from the other traditional college football university powers.  The Oregon Ducks are closest to LA and they are a 12 hour drive.  If USC is at all relevant, they can and typically do own almost all of the CA 5 star prospects who want to play in a large media market at a top 25 university and be close to home.  Pete Carroll said when he was at USC that he could hold a morning practice then hop in a limo to visit 5 inner city very strong high s hopl football programs and be home for dinner.

Lastly there are certain high schools that have a reputation for producing top high school QBs.  Schools like Mater Dei and Oaks Christian Academy — both are within an hour of USC.

I thought I read here that William's had a poor supporting cast, is that incorrect in your opinion?

[Philosophers]

I thought I read here that William's had a poor supporting cast, is that incorrect in your opinion?

I read that USC has 10 Rivals 5 star prospects on their 2023 team.  To give you some context, Michigan (ranked #1) has maybe 2.  USC has talent.  Just bad defenses.

[spiderblue43]

It certainly points out Riley's influence if Miller Moss (in a bowl game debut) goes viral with the spiral (6 tds..almost 400 yds.passing).

I think there is zero chance the Giants trade up for Williams..but is it possible he drops some? And do the Bears reconsider Fields as their starter... Murray's contract in Arizona..or The Patriots desire? And what about the Ex-Skins (who I think would grab him)?

Stay tuned...