Despite Daniel Jones' notable 2023 struggles, our experts do not think the Giants should use a first-round draft pick on a QB, instead selecting an offensive tackle or wide receiver.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-giants-should-not-draft-a-qb-in-first-round/
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I actually agree with their position. As I just explained to Bob, I'd prefer the Giants draft a 'second-tier' QB like Nix in the late 1st or early 2d, preserving their 1st pick to select the best WR available.
Quote from: kingm56 on March 25, 2024, 10:26:52 AMI actually agree with their position. As I just explained to Bob, I'd prefer the Giants draft a 'second-tier' QB like Nix in the late 1st or early 2d, preserving their 1st pick to select the best WR available.
Who is the Giants QB of the future who will connect with this receiver?
Quote from: katkavage on March 25, 2024, 10:34:29 AMWho is the Giants QB of the future who will connect with this receiver?
I am not saying I agree with this cartoon, but your comment reminded me of it:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJYWCvCXQAA6DCM?format=jpg&name=large)
The problem with options B and C are that Jones might not be healthy enough to stand and throw.
Quote from: katkavage on March 25, 2024, 10:34:29 AMWho is the Giants QB of the future who will connect with this receiver?
I believe I addressed your question in the in second part of the my statement. When it comes to the draft, I prefer a return-on-investment philosophy. This season, I believe it's best to select the first or second best WR or best T, than pick the forth or fifth best QB. IMO, I'd gamble with the aforementioned QB (or similar) with potential upside in the late 1st or 2d; obviously, the former will require the Giants to spend assets to move up the draft; still, I believe this scenario represents the best ROI. If the Giants can come away with a blue chip WR and potential QB, I'd be elated.
Quote from: kingm56 on March 25, 2024, 10:46:34 AMI believe I addressed your question in the in second part of the my statement. When it comes to the draft, I prefer a return-on-investment philosophy. This season, I believe it's best to select the first or second best WR or best T, than pick the forth or fifth best QB. IMO, I'd gamble with the aforementioned QB (or similar) with potential upside in the late 1st or 2d; obviously, the former will require the Giants to spend assets to move up the draft; still, I believe this scenario represents the best ROI. If the Giants can come away with a blue chip WR and potential QB, I'd be elated.
If they think Nix or anyone else day 2 has potential to be elite, yes. If they think they have potential just to start some day, it's a waste.
I'm gonna make a bold prediction: There will be at least one wide receiver picked day 2 or 3 in this draft who becomes a number one, elite receiver in the NFL. Not so sure I make that prediction about a QB.
The Offensive Line was upgraded at both Guard positions and it's expected that JMS takes a step forward. It remains to be seen if Evan Neal is the incumbent RT, although I do expect him to start the season there. Either way, the Line should be improved with the new Oline Coach.
The questions I have are, would a Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy, or any QB taken be an upgrade to elevate the Receiver positions? Or, would an elite Receiver elevate Jones/Lock with the upgraded or expected upgraded O-Line? Would a Bo Nix or Penix, thrive with an elite Receiver and an expected O-Line?
Not drafting a QB in the first two rounds allows the Giants to Draft an Elite Receiver and an Offensive Lineman in the first two rounds. I think they can sign a veteran Corner. They have their Edge Rusher. Would they wait until the third round to get their QB? Would they trade next year's draft picks to move up in any round?
I think if they go Receiver in round one, their next pick needs to be a QB.
Quote from: katkavage on March 25, 2024, 10:53:36 AMIf they think Nix or anyone else day 2 has potential to be elite, yes. If they think they have potential just to start some day, it's a waste.
I'm gonna make a bold prediction: There will be at least one wide receiver picked day 2 or 3 in this draft who becomes a number one, elite receiver in the NFL. Not so sure I make that prediction about a QB.
"If they think Nix or anyone else day 2 has potential to be elite"
The "if they think" portion has little value to me. It reminds me of a line from Money Ball: "You don't have a crystal ball, you can't look at a kid and predict his future any more than I can." "When it comes to your son, I know...but you don't...you don't."
What I care about is the ROI and probability, which is the impetus of me concurring with the 33rd team.
Considering the amount of WRs available and will be drafted, I'd say your prediction has a more than a moderate chance of coming to fruition.
I agree. Unless, there is serious doubt about DJ being able and ready to start the season, I don't want to see the Giants putting cart before horse by trading up or drafting a still available McCarthy at 6. While it all may be crap shoot at best, this is a time for patience and a steady hand, not for rash decision.
Cheers!
Which option gets us a top 10 QB performance by 2025 at a minimum?
That's what we must solve for?
Quote from: kingm56 on March 25, 2024, 10:26:52 AMI actually agree with their position. As I just explained to Bob, I'd prefer the Giants draft a 'second-tier' QB like Nix in the late 1st or early 2d, preserving their 1st pick to select the best WR available.
king: Me too. Bring in the "right" WR in the first round (not if the one or two you really wanted are already gone, in which case you bring in "best player available" at any position, although OL is certainly an area of need, so you look there first), then consider paying the price to move up to either the high 2nd-round or low 1st-round, depending on which (if any) QB's you really like is still available.
Bob
PS. If you really love a QB in the high first round who has inexplicably fallen to Pick Six, my plan (above) does not rule out serious consideration of a QB, especially if (for example) the guy who fell is your top-ranked QB in the entire draft vs. your second- or third-ranked WR.
PPS. My favorite drafts in the past have been when the Giants get the very best player they see from a position that has yet been drawn from by the other teams. In other words, the best TE or best whatever, preferably at a position of need. The Giants have numerous positions of need.
Quote from: Bob In PA on March 25, 2024, 11:15:54 AMking: Me too. Bring in the "right" WR in the first round (not if the one or two you really wanted are already gone, in which case you bring in "best player available" at any position, although OL is certainly an area of need, so you look there first), then consider paying the price to move up to either the high 2nd-round or low 1st-round, depending on which (if any) QB's you really like is still available.
Bob
PS. If you really love a QB in the high first round who has inexplicably fallen to Pick Six, my plan (above) does not rule out serious consideration of a QB, especially if (for example) the guy who fell is your top-ranked QB in the entire draft vs. your second- or third-ranked WR.
PPS. My favorite drafts in the past have been when the Giants get the very best player they see from a position that has yet been drawn from by the other teams. In other words, the best TE or best whatever, preferably at a position of need. The Giants have numerous positions of need.
Bob, I completely agree with your caveats; sounds like we're very much aligned on this matter...
Kiper sure does yack. It's a wonder he doesn't choke on his tongue. Still, what he says about the Draft and QBs therein is as obvious as it is enlightening.
https://youtu.be/9_vNTWjve9E?si=-c48qKetJM6U1hpi&t=9
Cheers!
I will sound like a broken record..because on this topic; I AM!
Trade down, grab another 2nd this year and a 1st next year.
Then prioritize OL (yep even with the FAs we picked up), CB, DT.
Next priority LB and WR.
Higher WR & QB should be addressed next year. We're not winning anything this year anyway so having an extra #1 and a top 10 of your own to maneuver, knowing that the trenches on the roster are deep in talent; that's how I'd like to see this team built.
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Quote from: Bob In PA on March 25, 2024, 11:15:54 AMking: Me too. Bring in the "right" WR in the first round (not if the one or two you really wanted are already gone, in which case you bring in "best player available" at any position, although OL is certainly an area of need, so you look there first), then consider paying the price to move up to either the high 2nd-round or low 1st-round, depending on which (if any) QB's you really like is still available.
Bob
PS. If you really love a QB in the high first round who has inexplicably fallen to Pick Six, my plan (above) does not rule out serious consideration of a QB, especially if (for example) the guy who fell is your top-ranked QB in the entire draft vs. your second- or third-ranked WR.
PPS. My favorite drafts in the past have been when the Giants get the very best player they see from a position that has yet been drawn from by the other teams. In other words, the best TE or best whatever, preferably at a position of need. The Giants have numerous positions of need.
Bob - given their FA pickups at OL, I think it's less of a need (at least early in draft) and we may need to let them play out.
QB vs WR who gets us top 10 QB play in 2025 or sooner.
Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on March 25, 2024, 11:45:05 AMI will sound like a broken record..because on this topic; I AM!
Trade down, grab another 2nd this year and a 1st next year.
Then prioritize OL (yep even with the FAs we picked up), CB, DT.
Next priority LB and WR.
Higher WR & QB should be addressed next year. We're not winning anything this year anyway so having an extra #1 and a top 10 of your own to maneuver, knowing that the trenches on the roster are deep in talent; that's how I'd like to see this team built.
andrew: I'd like to agree completely, but it is IMO a rare enough event to get a shot at a true "bell-cow" WR to justify jumping on it this year, unless (1) the Giants see a proven elite WR who'll become a free agent in 2025 (for whom they're willing to outbid virtually any other team); or (2) they have a SINGLE favorite high-1st-round-worthy WR in mind this year and that guy is gone.
I do see how waiting fits into your plan, which I like, but it's cheaper to draft one this year than overpay a 2025 free agent, and, there is a high bust rate for first round WR's in general.
Further, IMO there is a least one bust-proof WR this year. Next year? I don't know. Good post.
Bob
Quote from: Philosophers on March 25, 2024, 11:47:52 AMBob - given their FA pickups at OL, I think it's less of a need (at least early in draft) and we may need to let them play out.
QB vs WR who gets us top 10 QB play in 2025 or sooner.
Phil: Right (except for the Evan Neal quandary/problem/issue,which I don't have a clear "read" on right now). Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on March 25, 2024, 11:52:59 AMandrew: I'd like to agree completely, but it is IMO a rare enough event to get a shot at a true "bell-cow" WR to justify jumping on it this year, unless (1) the Giants see a proven elite WR who'll become a free agent in 2025 (for whom they're willing to outbid virtually any other team); or (2) they have a SINGLE favorite high-1st-round-worthy WR in mind this year and that guy is gone.
I do see how waiting fits into your plan, which I like, but it's cheaper to draft one this year than overpay a 2025 free agent, and, there is a high bust rate for first round WR's in general.
Further, IMO there is a least one bust-proof WR this year. Next year? I don't know. Good post.
Bob
Bob, as always I respect your POV.
My only counter to your well thought out position is that college football (as it relates to the passing game) has become a literal minor league system to the NFL.
Quality WR's and (coming up fast) QB's reveal themselves by October of each of the past 5 collegiate football seasons.
Hell Ohio State has produced at least 10 top wideouts in that time...a program that once built its aura around 3 yards and a cloud of dust.
The teams that win year in and year out are built at the LOS on both sides, and start with consistency in the back seven.
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Quote from: Philosophers on March 25, 2024, 11:15:49 AMWhich option gets us a top 10 QB performance by 2025 at a minimum?
That's what we must solve for?
That is the issue or dilemma. Let's say the Giants improve incrementally. A record of 7-10 or 8-9. Jones plays part of the year putting up middling numbers. Lock fills in the other games and also is middling. Nix is relegated to third string, not good enough to supplant Lock. They won't be picking in the top ten even if there were a QB as good as the top 4 in this year's draft What to do?
Quote from: katkavage on March 25, 2024, 12:13:31 PMThat is the issue or dilemma. Let's say the Giants improve incrementally. A record of 7-10 or 8-9. Jones plays part of the year putting up middling numbers. Lock fills in the other games and also is middling. Nix is relegated to third string, not good enough to supplant Lock. They won't be picking in the top ten even if there were a QB as good as the top 4 in this year's draft What to do?
I made this suggestion several months ago, but since the 2025 class is supposed to be a weak QB class, you don't draft a new QB till 2026.
You continue to build the team and then go all in for the guy you want in 2026, but that is just my opinion.
Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on March 25, 2024, 12:01:07 PMcollege football (as it relates to the passing game) has become a literal minor league system to the NFL.
andrew: True, but that doesn't mean playing WR in the NFL has gotten any easier than in the past.
The college WR's simply never face the kind of "perfect storm" DB's they will face in the NFL. You get mugged on every play in the NFL and most people just can't deal with it. And it's worse in cold weather.
My bottom line: every NFL position has a learning curve, but IMO for all but the very best WR's (and even for some of them) the learning curve for WR is one of the steepest.
Bob
Quote from: sxdxca38 on March 25, 2024, 12:36:25 PMI made this suggestion several months ago, but since the 2025 class is supposed to be a weak QB class, you don't draft a new QB till 2026.
You continue to build the team and then go all in for the guy you want in 2026, but that is just my opinion.
Wonder who the coach and GM will be in 2026 after two more years of mediocrity?
Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on March 25, 2024, 11:45:05 AMI will sound like a broken record..because on this topic; I AM!
Trade down, grab another 2nd this year and a 1st next year.
Then prioritize OL (yep even with the FAs we picked up), CB, DT.
Next priority LB and WR.
Higher WR & QB should be addressed next year. We're not winning anything this year anyway so having an extra #1 and a top 10 of your own to maneuver, knowing that the trenches on the roster are deep in talent; that's how I'd like to see this team built.
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Andrew, like yourself, I'm going to sound like that broken record also, but the way I see it, like the original cartoon depicts, what good is a great WR if your QB can't get him the ball? We need a new QB and that is, and should be, draft position #1. We have some talented WRs. maybe not a true #1 but what is easier to obtain a franchise QB or a #1 WR?
We may not have the chance to secure the future QB for quite a while, we need to act while the iron is hot and take the guy who will take this team to the next level. A WR simply cannot do that.
I'm one who believes that fans should ignore the cap, as it is a bit of black magic mixed with voodoo, and manipulated by wizards in accounting who know how to count pennies and massage room for change
However, the cost of carrying two first round QBs seems a bit of a poor way to control cap space, unless that team is 100% sure that the drafted QB is going to definitely start next year and will definitely be better than the one you have. Otherwise, it cost a lot to carry two QBs (one watching the other from the bench) and eating up a lot of cap, simply going on a hunch that the newly drafted QB is going to be a franchise-type guy and better than the known guy you already have
Personally, I think it's risky for the Giants to draft a QB in the first round since they won't get a shot at the first 2 or 3 in the draft. Dittos with OT. First rounders need to be starters in year one...IMHO
Conclusion: Get a no.1 WR or a blue chip TE - a big need, as well as those positions are next to impossible to get, and will be the team's star player for the next 5 years
Quote from: katkavage on March 25, 2024, 01:04:31 PMWonder who the coach and GM will be in 2026 after two more years of mediocrity?
If I was Schoen and Daboll I would let Mara know this is my plan, to secure the franchise QB in 2026, and not reach for the wrong guy, but that's what I would do.
Quote from: Ed Vette on March 25, 2024, 11:06:37 AMThe Offensive Line was upgraded at both Guard positions and it's expected that JMS takes a step forward. It remains to be seen if Evan Neal is the incumbent RT, although I do expect him to start the season there. Either way, the Line should be improved with the new Oline Coach.
Unfortunately we've been saying the same thing for ten years. I distinctly remember saying, in the last off-season, that at last the OL was moving in the right direction with some good looking pick-ups and a good coach in Bobby Johnson. And then Lucy pulled the football away yet again. So I'm not buying 'expected to do this or that' unless and until I see it on the field. The curse of scapegoating Gilbride remains strong.
Quote from: LennG on March 25, 2024, 01:12:30 PMAndrew, like yourself, I'm going to sound like that broken record also, but the way I see it, like the original cartoon depicts, what good is a great WR if your QB can't get him the ball? We need a new QB and that is, and should be, draft position #1. We have some talented WRs. maybe not a true #1 but what is easier to obtain a franchise QB or a #1 WR?
We may not have the chance to secure the future QB for quite a while, we need to act while the iron is hot and take the guy who will take this team to the next level. A WR simply cannot do that.
If this roster was more than halfway built with solid LOS on both sides, I would be 100% aligned with your position
Sadly after all these years, it's still not.
I'm not looking forward to bringing another QB here just to get David Carr'd.
Our defense is not there yet and that's about a solid rotation that requires at least three of any DT or DE's to stop the run and play downhill.
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I do not think they should draft a QB until we have seen a season of actually competent play by the OL. I also do not think they should draft an OL sooner than the 3rd round. They already have 2 first rounders and a second rounder, and only one of the three has proven, so far, to be any good. Bad talent assessment? Bad coaching?
Great teams flip the script on the league's consensus narrative. So I'd like the Giants to go against the grain and really build up the defense. Field a defense that gives up less than 20 points per game or less. And can take on the elite QBs and make them poop their pants. The chances of getting a Mahomes or Brady, the only real game changers IMO, are miniscule so build a defense that can stop them. It's how we won our last 3, and arguably all four, of our Superbowls.
I will add this, I did some real digging. If the Giants don't grab a QB in round one, it seems highly unlikely they will find a potential (even developmental) starting QB in day 2 or 3. Maybe Spencer Rattler, but he seems like a long shot to become a top 10 QB. I suspect his ceiling is starter a team where the team is constantly looking to upgrade the position.
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 25, 2024, 02:19:19 PMI will add this, I did some real digging. If the Giants don't grab a QB in round one, it seems highly unlikely they will find a potential (even developmental) starting QB in day 2 or 3. Maybe Spencer Rattler, but he seems like a long shot to become a top 10 QB. I suspect his ceiling is starter a team where the team is constantly looking to upgrade the position.
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 25, 2024, 02:19:19 PMI will add this, I did some real digging. If the Giants don't grab a QB in round one, it seems highly unlikely they will find a potential (even developmental) starting QB in day 2 or 3. Maybe Spencer Rattler, but he seems like a long shot to become a top 10 QB. I suspect his ceiling is starter a team where the team is constantly looking to upgrade the position.
I agree. The only one I would take is Penix. In fact, Minnesota would be stupid to trade up for McCarthy. Penix is the perfect fit for Minnesota. They have many pieces in place, including a great WR. He is NFL ready where McCarthy might need a year or two of development. The Vikings could get Penix easily at their pick and they have another pick in the first round that could fill a need.
https://x.com/clt_ny/status/1772386758799278125?s=20