Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: uconnjack8 on February 20, 2024, 08:10:21 AMWhere did you see that he was responsible for 32% of his sacks?  I haven't seen that one ( I don't subscribe to PFF).  If you are referring to the percent of pressures that turned into sacks, I think you are misinterpreting that stat. 

https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1757465944824193328

Quote from: EliWasrobbed on February 20, 2024, 04:07:55 PMhttps://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1757465944824193328

That stat says when pressured he was 2nd most likely to be sacked, not that he caused the or was responsible for those sacks.  Two very different things. 

Quote from: uconnjack8 on February 20, 2024, 04:48:58 PMThat stat says when pressured he was 2nd most likely to be sacked, not that he caused the or was responsible for those sacks.  Two very different things. 

do you not understand what is written? Of course he was responsible
For those sacks. Just because you are pressured doesn't mean it is entirely on the Oline, you realize people like Lamar Jackson, Joe burrow etc are great at this which is WHY they are considered elite QBs

Quote from: EliWasrobbed on February 20, 2024, 05:01:14 PMdo you not understand what is written? Of course he was responsible
For those sacks. Just because you are pressured doesn't mean it is entirely on the Oline, you realize people like Lamar Jackson, Joe burrow etc are great at this which is WHY they are considered elite QBs

I think it's you who does not understand what is written. 

I am not saying Jones was not responsible for any of those sacks, but that stst is not determining root cause of sacks, just who was most likely to be sacked when pressured.  How many of those were avoidable is a very different thing.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on February 20, 2024, 05:03:33 PMI think it's you who does not understand what is written. 

I am not saying Jones was not responsible for any of those sacks, but that stst is not determining root cause of sacks, just who was most likely to be sacked when pressured.  How many of those were avoidable is a very different thing.

If it's the stat that PFF has a metric for, I recall them isolating either pressure or sacks that were the responsibility of the QB. Apparently it's based on game analysis.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on February 20, 2024, 05:03:33 PMI think it's you who does not understand what is written. 

I am not saying Jones was not responsible for any of those sacks, but that stst is not determining root cause of sacks, just who was most likely to be sacked when pressured.  How many of those were avoidable is a very different thing.

WTF? Buddy....

Quote from: EliWasrobbed on February 21, 2024, 02:18:29 AMWTF? Buddy....

Exactly, you are extrapolating something from a stat that isnt in the stat. 

Dummy thing here is you think you are correct.

Quote from: EliWasrobbed on February 20, 2024, 05:01:14 PMdo you not understand what is written? Of course he was responsible
For those sacks. Just because you are pressured doesn't mean it is entirely on the Oline, you realize people like Lamar Jackson, Joe burrow etc are great at this which is WHY they are considered elite QBs

Those guys are considered great QBs for a number of reasons.  Evading pressure is one of a number of factors.  I am completely aware that sacks and being pressured are not entirely on the OL.  However the stat you are using is not assigning responsibility for sacks. 

Further there are a number of other factors you are not considering when making your statements.  I am no Jones fan but perhaps his pressures turn to sacks more frequently than others because the pressure comes faster for example. There are many other factors, like the type of pressure and why there is pressure.

Lamar for example had almost a half second more time until he was pressured and got pressured a lot less. 

Hasnt this stat been in like 4 threads now?

https://pff.com/news/nfl-searching-for-the-next-patrick-mahomes-pff-play-creation-study?

Quote from: Ed Vette on February 21, 2024, 08:20:55 AMhttps://pff.com/news/nfl-searching-for-the-next-patrick-mahomes-pff-play-creation-study?

So based on this extensive study, out of the 26 players ranked in the top 3 tiers (not counting those not yet drafted) more than half - or 14 - have been not good to terrible.

Why anyone would want to trade multiple high draft picks in multiple drafts for a guy who, at best, has a 50-50 shot at success is a complete mystery to me.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on February 21, 2024, 06:14:52 AMExactly, you are extrapolating something from a stat that isnt in the stat. 

Dummy thing here is you think you are correct.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-sam-howell-washington-commanders-sacks

Not only is Howell creating his own pressure, but he's also turning offensive line-allowed pressure into sacks at an unsustainable rate. He currently leads the league with a 33.7% pressure-to-sack percentage. The league-high rate last season was 30.8%.

Quote from: Ed Vette on February 21, 2024, 08:20:55 AMhttps://pff.com/news/nfl-searching-for-the-next-patrick-mahomes-pff-play-creation-study?

Since they weren't exactly transparent in terms of how they derived this number (they cited factors but failed to "show their work"), I have to judge this exercise based on how logical and reasoned the author of the study is.

So I considered the first paragraph of the article:

QuoteThe Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl despite ranking bottom-seven in wide receiver and offensive tackle PFF wins above replacement (PFF WAR), two premium positions on offense. While some may point to Kansas City's defense being one of the better units in the league, the biggest reason is simply the fact the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes while everyone else does not.

There is a lot that bothers me in this one paragraph.  This is PFF, so I feel comfortable using their metrics to judge their claims.  First, I question why they judged the pass blocking only on the offensive tackle play rather than the entire line's play or, better yet, using their pass blocking grade.  Looking at their grades for the Chief's line, it's hard not to see that the author was trying to mislead us.  I just posted a thread about what makes a championship team, as authored by Daniel Jeremiah.  He felt teams need 3 good offensive linemen.  The Chief's interior line grades are 74.9, 81.4, and 74.6.  So yes, the tackles were below average, but Mahomes could step up on the pocket, which was usually sound due to the stout interior of the O-line.

The second metric the author picked was WR.  Since we are all aware that Mahome's biggest receiving weapon is future HOF TE Kelcy, this again appears to be a case of cherry-picking data to create a false impression.

The downplaying of the Chief's defense also struck me as being less than honest.  In the playoffs, PFF graded the Chief's defense number one.  We also saw a previous stat of how often the defense limited opponents' scoring (setting a new record).

All that dishonesty was to support the claim that the "biggest" reason the Chiefs won this Super Bowl was because they had Mahomes.  I certainly agree that having Mahomes helped the team win the Super Bowl, but the biggest reason was the Chief's defense.  It carried the team into the playoffs and it won them a championship. 

Quote from: uconnjack8 on February 20, 2024, 04:48:58 PMThat stat says when pressured he was 2nd most likely to be sacked, not that he caused the or was responsible for those sacks.  Two very different things. 

It's not most likely. It's pressure where the QB WAS responsible for pressure creating the sack.

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 21, 2024, 08:45:38 AMSince they weren't exactly transparent in terms of how they derived this number (they cited factors but failed to "show their work"), I have to judge this exercise based on how logical and reasoned the author of the study is.

So I considered the first paragraph of the article:


There is a lot that bothers me in this one paragraph.  This is PFF, so I feel comfortable using their metrics to judge their claims.  First, I question why they judged the pass blocking only on the offensive tackle play rather than the entire line's play or, better yet, using their pass blocking grade.  Looking at their grades for the Chief's line, it's hard not to see that the author was trying to mislead us.  I just posted a thread about what makes a championship team, as authored by Daniel Jeremiah.  He felt teams need 3 good offensive linemen.  The Chief's interior line grades are 74.9, 81.4, and 74.6.  So yes, the tackles were below average, but Mahomes could step up on the pocket, which was usually sound due to the stout interior of the O-line.

The second metric the author picked was WR.  Since we are all aware that Mahome's biggest receiving weapon is future HOF TE Kelcy, this again appears to be a case of cherry-picking data to create a false impression.

The downplaying of the Chief's defense also struck me as being less than honest.  In the playoffs, PFF graded the Chief's defense number one.  We also saw a previous stat of how often the defense limited opponents' scoring (setting a new record).

All that dishonesty was to support the claim that the "biggest" reason the Chiefs won this Super Bowl was because they had Mahomes.  I certainly agree that having Mahomes helped the team win the Super Bowl, but the biggest reason was the Chief's defense.  It carried the team into the playoffs and it won them a championship. 

That's not the reason why I posted the article, for the reason the Chiefs won the SB. It was to show the tier groups of similar attributes. How QBs convert pressure into opportunity.