The “X Factor” in analyzing draft prospects

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I just spent 45 minutes listening to a podcast that included PFF's Mike Renner and The Athletics Dane Brugler and my conclusion was, "my ability to evaluate draft prospects from the comfort of my living room and internet access does NOT even remotely qualify me to appraise college players". There is just so much more that goes into professional evaluations than what is available on the internet...especially since I do not watch hundreds of hours of college football during the season. I watch maybe six or seven college games each year, that includes the Syracuse team, the playoffs, and the national championship game. Hardly qualifies me as even a college football fan. Now that I got that out of the way, here is another aspect of player evaluation that is, hands down, one of the most important makeups of a player: the "real person" behind the façade

I read an interesting article on "why Johnny Manziel flamed out in the NFL." An uber-talented QB born with a gift. Excelled at the college level, but couldn't cut it on the NFL stage. The article starts with an analogy about pie eating contests and lawyers (strange combo indeed). It said, "...sometimes you are getting more than you bargained for by winning a pie eating contest only to be rewarded with more pie for winning"...or similarly, "a junior lawyer working harder than anyone else to become a partner in the firm, only to discover after getting there, he now has twice as much work ahead of him." Well the same happens with athletes...they work so hard to get to the pros, that some of them don't realize that now they have to work twice as hard just to stay at the level expected of them

Players like Johnny Manziel had red flags all over him that said, "ultra talented with natural athleticism and essential qualities that shine through...likes to party, doesn't take life and work seriously...". In short, Manziel's natural gift was enough for him to excel at the college level, but he was lazy. Not only lazy, but liked to be involved in fun activities unrelated to the game of football. He thought he could have fun all week and his natural abilities would make him a star on Sunday. But it doesn't work that way. To take it to the next level takes an insane amount of motivation just to come up to snuff on the intellectual part of the game as well, and then (no matter how talented) finely tuning one's physical gifts. It takes a special person who works incredibly hard, only to get the job he wanted, and then be willing to do even more work, and he must be willing to do such to succeed

Two things pop out at me. One, Daniel Jones is exactly the kind of guy who has a gift, but realizes he must work harder than everyone else and must put in the intellectual labor to understand the many nuances of defenses as well as the coach's offense, not matter how complex. That speaks volumes about Daniel Jones, the person and a reason for fans to be excited. I think it also applies to Kayvon Thibodeaux who was born with a gift and seems very willing to do whatever work necessary to take it to the next level. And two, I wonder how on earth a scout can divine that quality in a player to have some sort of assurance that the player under a microscope has that "inner drive" to take it to the next level? It's such an important factor, yet it can't possibly be known at a perfect level

Oftentimes, kids growing up in poverty and are suddenly multi-millionaires, able to live in expensive pads, drive high-end cars, have a 50,000 dollar watch on their wrist, dress like a fashion model, etc., (not to mention, being suddenly hounded by gold-digging, over-the-top super-hot females who never used to give you a second look), can easily get side-tracked and no longer have that exceptional concentration required of the job at hand, or they simply don't care now that they've hit the jackpot of life and believe their natural ability is all they need to be a star in the NFL. It's a game changing lifestyle that few people in this world can even fathom, let alone a kid from the most impoverished environment. I wonder if that is what Schoen and Daboll saw in Toney...or maybe that was some of OBJ's downfall. I don't think it's a good thing that a player is heavily involved in another activity that isn't all about football (becoming a RAP musician, for example...or any hobby that takes an inordinate amount of time)

Bottom line: this might very well be the most important quality in a player, and no way am I qualified to know this kind of information with my resources. Thankfully, we have a great GM and HC that I believe does take this into account

[Philosophers]

I am sorry to say this so strongly, but I believe that the league, teams, etc. are filled either with so many morons or have such a poor structure to evaluate talent that it is insane to watch.  These people make the same mistake over and over again, particularly on big 1st round selections.  What is this mistake?  It is either their inability to identify poor character traits or their willingness to override it.

I have no problem with evaluators who pick a player who say is average and does not become the high end talent they thought, but failures because of character on players like Ryan Leaf, Johnny Manziel, Josh Rosen, Ereck Flowers, should not be tolerated.

For all the time and money spent on evaluating players, how do teams fail to see this character flaws?  I mean Manziel's dad he stopped playing golf with his son because his temper was so high that he'd throw clubs and scream and his dad could not control him.  Ryan Leaf was not in his high school football hall of fame. 

Just ridiculous to me.  I know I might draft kids who become only average, but I am 100% confident, I would not draft a player with these character issues.  I'd identify them and I would not treat them insignificantly.

[MightyGiants]

I am sorry to say this so strongly, but I believe that the league, teams, etc. are filled either with so many morons or have such a poor structure to evaluate talent that it is insane to watch.  These people make the same mistake over and over again, particularly on big 1st round selections.  What is this mistake?  It is either their inability to identify poor character traits or their willingness to override it.

I have no problem with evaluators who pick a player who say is average and does not become the high end talent they thought, but failures because of character on players like Ryan Leaf, Johnny Manziel, Josh Rosen, Ereck Flowers, should not be tolerated.

For all the time and money spent on evaluating players, how do teams fail to see this character flaws?  I mean Manziel's dad he stopped playing golf with his son because his temper was so high that he'd throw clubs and scream and his dad could not control him.  Ryan Leaf was not in his high school football hall of fame. 

Just ridiculous to me.  I know I might draft kids who become only average, but I am 100% confident, I would not draft a player with these character issues.  I'd identify them and I would not treat them insignificantly.

I think there are so many factors that go into why the NFL has such a poor track record when it comes to drafting talent. 

The scouting method-  I appreciate the logistical challenges, but it does make sense to have scouts scout positions (or a group of related positions) rather than scout all positions for a select number of teams.  It takes different talents to discern quality at different positions, my opinion.

The scouting methods used pretty much assure bias.   Generally, scouts are taught to look for certain traits for each position.  So when scouting players, you watch the film looking for proof for or against the trait.  After seeing it a couple of times in either direction, a scout checks off a box.  That is not an ideal method for talent evaluation, in my opinion.

Not knowing exactly what they are looking for-  Schoen's and Daboll's, "smart, tough, dependable", is more than a slogan, it's an ideal way to focus everyone on what you are looking for in players.  If you don't know exactly what you are looking for, it's certainly hard to find it.

Pressure to fill a need-  As a manager, my biggest mistake was giving in to the strong sense of wanting to fill a need rather than ONLY hiring people I felt good about.   I would imagine that urgency to fill needs is even worse in the NFL, where HCs and Coaches can have such short careers with a given team.  Give in to the sense of urgency and you are selling yourself on a prospect

Unpredictability-  It's difficult to predict how college players (especially before NIL) who have limited funds and controlled lives will react to all the freedom in the NFL and essentially become lottery winners.

Difficult to project-  The college game is significantly different than the pro game.  That means you need to project traits to the NFL rather than just observe players under NFL conditions

Injuries-  always a wildcard in the NFL


That said, even veteran FA signings come with a significant degree of risk

[Jclayton92]

All scouts would have to do is go speak with the booster or people spending money for their teams NIL. I graduated from an SEC school and I'm heavily involved in their NIL initiative and donate significantly to it. It's now at the point were NIL groups do significant, significant background in off the field, and on campus relations when it comes to the athletes. To the point now were NIL grouos have full dossiers on all the 5 stars and 4 stars prospects plus any prospect in the transfer portal.  A lot of really great scouts have realized this is a useful tool because people/boosters that are about to give some kid a million dollars to hit a QB is going to know everything about him and they do. I remember reading some of the things on prospects that was just to wild to even want to make a bid for their services but some team will.

All of that to say with NIL now dominating the landscape, the booster and NIL group on campus now because a huge source of information for any scout that thinks to take advantage of it.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

The podcast I listened to between PFF's Mike Renner and The Athletics's Dane Brugler analyzed over a dozen players. It made me realize that mocks and typical beat writers do not anaylze players in-depth as these guys do. In fact, they find a lot of flaws in highly ranked players and discuss them. Made me not want us to take a WR in the first round (maybe even in the second) and I'm leaning a lot more to hoping we go CB. They find fault in a lot of players and one of the few players they agree on that they are also high on is Cody Mauch, which I found interesting

Anyway, the podcast is on The Athletic, but it's also on YouTube, so I'll post it here if anyone wants to watch it. It won't make you feel better about the draft if you're like me...LOL

[MightyGiants]

I am mindful of one thing, all the draft pundits are missing a huge piece of the puzzle.  Imagine hiring someone you never interviewed.  Imagine not knowing all their psych testing. Imagine not knowing their background checks and medical exam results


Only the teams enjoy all that important intel

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I am mindful of one thing, all the draft pundits are missing a huge piece of the puzzle.  Imagine hiring someone you never interviewed.  Imagine not knowing all their psych testing. Imagine not knowing their background checks and medical exam results


Only the teams enjoy all that important intel

Yep...and I'm quick to say that Schoen and Daboll doing this and that, when in fact, I have to believe the whole front office in charge of "Football Operations" are just as busy this draft season, doing their own analysis and get some say in narrowing down players rankings...and this doesn't even include the team medical experts

It would be really interesting to see who has a lot to say and how much stock Schoen puts in them

[nb587]

I just spent 45 minutes listening to a podcast that included PFF's Mike Renner and The Athletics Dane Brugler and my conclusion was, "my ability to evaluate draft prospects from the comfort of my living room and internet access does NOT even remotely qualify me to appraise college players". There is just so much more that goes into professional evaluations than what is available on the internet...especially since I do not watch hundreds of hours of college football during the season. I watch maybe six or seven college games each year, that includes the Syracuse team, the playoffs, and the national championship game. Hardly qualifies me as even a college football fan. Now that I got that out of the way, here is another aspect of player evaluation that is, hands down, one of the most important makeups of a player: the "real person" behind the façade

I read an interesting article on "why Johnny Manziel flamed out in the NFL." An uber-talented QB born with a gift. Excelled at the college level, but couldn't cut it on the NFL stage. The article starts with an analogy about pie eating contests and lawyers (strange combo indeed). It said, "...sometimes you are getting more than you bargained for by winning a pie eating contest only to be rewarded with more pie for winning"...or similarly, "a junior lawyer working harder than anyone else to become a partner in the firm, only to discover after getting there, he now has twice as much work ahead of him." Well the same happens with athletes...they work so hard to get to the pros, that some of them don't realize that now they have to work twice as hard just to stay at the level expected of them

Players like Johnny Manziel had red flags all over him that said, "ultra talented with natural athleticism and essential qualities that shine through...likes to party, doesn't take life and work seriously...". In short, Manziel's natural gift was enough for him to excel at the college level, but he was lazy. Not only lazy, but liked to be involved in fun activities unrelated to the game of football. He thought he could have fun all week and his natural abilities would make him a star on Sunday. But it doesn't work that way. To take it to the next level takes an insane amount of motivation just to come up to snuff on the intellectual part of the game as well, and then (no matter how talented) finely tuning one's physical gifts. It takes a special person who works incredibly hard, only to get the job he wanted, and then be willing to do even more work, and he must be willing to do such to succeed

Two things pop out at me. One, Daniel Jones is exactly the kind of guy who has a gift, but realizes he must work harder than everyone else and must put in the intellectual labor to understand the many nuances of defenses as well as the coach's offense, not matter how complex. That speaks volumes about Daniel Jones, the person and a reason for fans to be excited. I think it also applies to Kayvon Thibodeaux who was born with a gift and seems very willing to do whatever work necessary to take it to the next level. And two, I wonder how on earth a scout can divine that quality in a player to have some sort of assurance that the player under a microscope has that "inner drive" to take it to the next level? It's such an important factor, yet it can't possibly be known at a perfect level

Oftentimes, kids growing up in poverty and are suddenly multi-millionaires, able to live in expensive pads, drive high-end cars, have a 50,000 dollar watch on their wrist, dress like a fashion model, etc., (not to mention, being suddenly hounded by gold-digging, over-the-top super-hot females who never used to give you a second look), can easily get side-tracked and no longer have that exceptional concentration required of the job at hand, or they simply don't care now that they've hit the jackpot of life and believe their natural ability is all they need to be a star in the NFL. It's a game changing lifestyle that few people in this world can even fathom, let alone a kid from the most impoverished environment. I wonder if that is what Schoen and Daboll saw in Toney...or maybe that was some of OBJ's downfall. I don't think it's a good thing that a player is heavily involved in another activity that isn't all about football (becoming a RAP musician, for example...or any hobby that takes an inordinate amount of time)

Bottom line: this might very well be the most important quality in a player, and no way am I qualified to know this kind of information with my resources. Thankfully, we have a great GM and HC that I believe does take this into account

Our great GM and HC have had 1 successful season and 1 uneventful draft.  Whether it's injuries or poor choices or both, at best, our draft last year was uneven.  And, it's not every year that we'll have 2 top 7 picks.  At 25 this year, we'll have a better sense of how good these guys are in the draft.  We sure don't now.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Our great GM and HC have had 1 successful season and 1 uneventful draft.  Whether it's injuries or poor choices or both, at best, our draft last year was uneven.  And, it's not every year that we'll have 2 top 7 picks.  At 25 this year, we'll have a better sense of how good these guys are in the draft.  We sure don't now.

I totally agree with you (not that that means anything). We were hit with an unlucky barage of injuries to our drafted players (I've wondered if it wasn't Schoen demanding new turf, but I guess we'll never know), so it's impossible to evaluate lasts year's draft. Regardless, it takes two to three years to evaluate a draft even without injuries. Last year Schoen and Daboll were just getting their toes wet, busy hiring coaches, watching tons of film evaluating our own players to know what they have, trying to figure out their scouting team, getting used to a whole new environment, etc. They didn't have the time and/or manpower yet to be as ready for the draft as they would have liked. I make my bold statement that our GM and HC are on top of this based on how they have set things up; the words that have come out of their mouths; their ability to scout and bring in free agents off the street (and other teams' PS) that improved our team throughout the year; put together a winning record; the work they are putting in pre-draft this year with a FO and coaching staff that is finally in place and now knows exactly what schemes we will be playing and what holes in the dike must be plugged. Maybe I'm being premature in my belief that we have smart, qualified leaders at the helm, but I'm going to believe that until proven wrong. Certainly not going into the season with a hunch that they suck and are stupid

[nb587]

In my opinion, Schoen's hiring of Daboll, if nothing else, makes him a very good young GM.  Time will tell where he goes from there.  But, there's a world of difference between being great and sucking.  Daboll is s little bit older but also new at the job. He made his mistakes, some major, but on the whole did very well with a weak roster.  I'm looking forward to what he'll do with a better roster and a reversion to the mean with injuries.  That said, I'm pretty sure Judge was highly regarded here after his rookie season

[Philosophers]

I think there are so many factors that go into why the NFL has such a poor track record when it comes to drafting talent. 

The scouting method-  I appreciate the logistical challenges, but it does make sense to have scouts scout positions (or a group of related positions) rather than scout all positions for a select number of teams.  It takes different talents to discern quality at different positions, my opinion.

The scouting methods used pretty much assure bias.  Generally, scouts are taught to look for certain traits for each position.  So when scouting players, you watch the film looking for proof for or against the trait.  After seeing it a couple of times in either direction, a scout checks off a box.  That is not an ideal method for talent evaluation, in my opinion.

Not knowing exactly what they are looking for-  Schoen's and Daboll's, "smart, tough, dependable", is more than a slogan, it's an ideal way to focus everyone on what you are looking for in players.  If you don't know exactly what you are looking for, it's certainly hard to find it.

Pressure to fill a need-  As a manager, my biggest mistake was giving in to the strong sense of wanting to fill a need rather than ONLY hiring people I felt good about.  I would imagine that urgency to fill needs is even worse in the NFL, where HCs and Coaches can have such short careers with a given team.  Give in to the sense of urgency and you are selling yourself on a prospect

Unpredictability-  It's difficult to predict how college players (especially before NIL) who have limited funds and controlled lives will react to all the freedom in the NFL and essentially become lottery winners.

Difficult to project-  The college game is significantly different than the pro game.  That means you need to project traits to the NFL rather than just observe players under NFL conditions

Injuries-  always a wildcard in the NFL


That said, even veteran FA signings come with a significant degree of risk

Like I said, picking a prospect who develops into 60th percentile NFL player and not 90th percentile maybe because he's not quite athletic enough or just didn't quite translate his coaching into play is an acceptable miss to me.  Picking Johnny Manziel at what 25 only to have him flame out because of his character and immaturity is a much bigger miss which should have been caught.  100% no excuse for that.