NGT - NCAA Football Conference Championship games

[DaveBrown74]

We obviously had a very good game last night with a somewhat surprising outcome. There is plenty more action today:

Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma St:

What Ok St managed to do this year despite a big exodus of talent was pretty impressive, and you can't rule out an upset here completely, but I think it's pretty unlikely. Texas also needs to win this game convincingly to maintain any sort of shot of making the playoffs. if they just win in a squeaker it will be much harder (if not impossible) and they know it. Good chance to get eyes on Ewers in this game.


UGA -4 vs Bama:

Heavyweight battle here between the two SEC powers. Plenty of NFL prospects to look at in this game, although neither QB is on the radar for 2024. Could be a great game. Bama has had a bit of a mixed year and has looked shaky in some wins (along with losing at home to Texas), so I like Georgia here, but it's far from a foregone conclusion. Georgia hasn't always looked dominant themselves and is definitely not as good as the Georgia teams from the previous couple years. Brock Bowers is a sick talent, and I'm looking forward to watching him.


Tulane -3 vs SMU:


Both of these have had nice years playing largely lesser competition. Neither has a shot at the playoffs though, so no huge interest in this one.


Michigan -22 vs Iowa:

Michigan is the best or second best team in the country. Nobody is giving Iowa a chance in this game, and I concur with the masses. Should be a rout. It's still a big game though, so it's worth watching McCarthy in this. Iowa did go 10-2 this year but they beat nobody of any sort of note, and they got wrecked 31-0 in their only game against a very good team (PSU). Should be a blowout.


FSU -1.5 vs Louisville


Very interesting game here. Louisville is more than capable of beating FSU. With that said, FSU is undefeated, and regardless of whether people think they're a bona fide top four team in the country, if they win this game the CFP committee is not going to leave them out. With that in mind, I sort of hope they lose, because I want the committee to have the ability to make interesting decisions and not just be bound by record. Louisville is a more than worthy foe though, so if FSU does prevail, you have to give them credit, and they'll be deserving of the playoffs even though I suspect they're probably more like the 8th-12th best team in the country.


Should be a pretty interesting day. I am definitely going to check some of it out.

[Philosophers]

We obviously had a very good game last night with a somewhat surprising outcome. There is plenty more action today:

Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma St:

What Ok St managed to do this year despite a big exodus of talent was pretty impressive, and you can't rule out an upset here completely, but I think it's pretty unlikely. Texas also needs to win this game convincingly to maintain any sort of shot of making the playoffs. if they just win in a squeaker it will be much harder (if not impossible) and they know it. Good chance to get eyes on Ewers in this game.


UGA -4 vs Bama:

Heavyweight battle here between the two SEC powers. Plenty of NFL prospects to look at in this game, although neither QB is on the radar for 2024. Could be a great game. Bama has had a bit of a mixed year and has looked shaky in some wins (along with losing at home to Texas), so I like Georgia here, but it's far from a foregone conclusion. Georgia hasn't always looked dominant themselves and is definitely not as good as the Georgia teams from the previous couple years. Brock Bowers is a sick talent, and I'm looking forward to watching him.


Tulane -3 vs SMU:


Both of these have had nice years playing largely lesser competition. Neither has a shot at the playoffs though, so no huge interest in this one.


Michigan -22 vs Iowa:

Michigan is the best or second best team in the country. Nobody is giving Iowa a chance in this game, and I concur with the masses. Should be a rout. It's still a big game though, so it's worth watching McCarthy in this. Iowa did go 10-2 this year but they beat nobody of any sort of note, and they got wrecked 31-0 in their only game against a very good team (PSU). Should be a blowout.


FSU -1.5 vs Louisville


Very interesting game here. Louisville is more than capable of beating FSU. With that said, FSU is undefeated, and regardless of whether people think they're a bona fide top four team in the country, if they win this game the CFP committee is not going to leave them out. With that in mind, I sort of hope they lose, because I want the committee to have the ability to make interesting decisions and not just be bound by record. Louisville is a more than worthy foe though, so if FSU does prevail, you have to give them credit, and they'll be deserving of the playoffs even though I suspect they're probably more like the 8th-12th best team in the country.


Should be a pretty interesting day. I am definitely going to check some of it out.

As usual, you come up with a great post.  Love always what you have to say.

I would not take the points in Michigan vs. Iowa.  Iowa has a way of sloooooowwing the game down.  They won't score enough points but I expect a 21-7 type win for Michigan.  Nothing fancy and frankly nothing exciting.

Florida State is a tough one to look to make a run with their starting QB now out for the season so how well the backup does may be the game.  I would put them potentially on upset alert though I think the rest of their team is solid.

Look forward to Bama - Georgia game.

[DaveBrown74]

As usual, you come up with a great post.  Love always what you have to say.

I would not take the points in Michigan vs. Iowa.  Iowa has a way of sloooooowwing the game down.  They won't score enough points but I expect a 21-7 type win for Michigan.  Nothing fancy and frankly nothing exciting.

Florida State is a tough one to look to make a run with their starting QB now out for the season so how well the backup does may be the game.  I would put them potentially on upset alert though I think the rest of their team is solid.

Look forward to Bama - Georgia game.

Phil- I appreciate that, and the feeling is 100% mutual.

Good color on Iowa. I haven't seen much of them this year so I'm going into the game blind from an analytical point of view of that team. Their resume does not scream great to me, although they're clearly not bad either. Agree 22.5 is not a small number in a conference champ game.

I thought Oregon would cover the 9.5 last night and was obviously way off. I though Washington was somewhat lucky to even be playing in that game (lots of close wins against meh teams this year). Clearly I underrated them and maybe overrated Oregon, whom I viewed as a clear top two or three team. Perhaps one could argue that if these teams played 100 times, Oregon would still win the lion's share, but the bottom line is they're 0-2 against the Huskies this year, so their fate is sealed.

The most intriguing games are clearly FSU/L'Ville and UGA/Bama. Will be interesting to see how those play out.

[DaveBrown74]

The bar for these calls is different in the NFL:

https://twitter.com/OddsShark/status/1731139417471868994

[uconnjack8]

As underwhelming as FSU looks, I still think if they win they should be in the tournament.   Feels weird to say, but I think if the SEC should be left out at this point.

Washington
Michigan
Texas
FsU

For Harbaugh,  opportunity knocks.

[uconnjack8]

Have to add.  I was really hoping for 4 undefeated power 5 school all with QB1 available. 

Sometimes I root for chaos, but this year had a chance to work perfectly.

[Philosophers]

I think GSU

As underwhelming as FSU looks, I still think if they win they should be in the tournament.   Feels weird to say, but I think if the SEC should be left out at this point.

Washington
Michigan
Texas
FsU

For Harbaugh,  opportunity knocks.
[/quo

As underwhelming as FSU looks, I still think if they win they should be in the tournament.   Feels weird to say, but I think if the SEC should be left out at this point.

Washington
Michigan
Texas
FsU

For Harbaugh,  opportunity knocks.

I think Florida's State's QB problems make the team look awfully average.  Think that will keep them out.

Would the Committee keep UGA in as well as boost Alabama in and keep Texas out?

[DaveBrown74]

This is not what I'm saying SHOULD happen, but this is what I think WILL happen:


Michigan
Washington
Bama
FSU


I can't see them leaving out a one loss SEC team that just beat the number one ranked team in the country in their home state. They're also not going to leave an undefeated FSU team out, no matter how underwhelming people think they are. Washington has looked underwhelming in a lot of games this year (razor close wins to pedestrian teams) but they're obviously in.

I know many are opposed to the 12 team format, but to me this is an example of why it's better. You don't have to worry about the "shoulds" versus "wills", and it can all be decided on the field.

It's also better because with the current setup, we now have a month-plus of meaningless football games that nobody cares about and nobody will remember. The majority of good players who are draft-bound won't even suit up for these meaningless bowl games. I know there was a time that people cared, but that time is long gone. As the sport is currently set up, it basically shuts down for the entire month of December. That's utterly ridiculous and has to change.

I'll be very surprised if they leave the SEC out. I don't see it happening.