Big Blue Huddle

So many believe this year's NY Giants will regress.   They ignore Bill Parcell's wise words of, "you are what your record says you are," and argue that last year's nine wins were inflated by luck.

Vegas (aka the people's vote) says the Giants will regress as the win total there is set at a lower 7.5

Then you have roster breakdowns and comparisons that argue against the Giants.   Bill Belichick truly believed that "we are not collecting talent; we are building a team"

I went back and looked at last year's PFF roster talent rankings to see how effective such measures are (I also checked against other listings and found PFF inline with others).  Here were their top 10 talent rankings at the start of 2022

1. BUFFALO BILLS
2. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
3. LOS ANGELES RAMS
4. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
5. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
6. GREEN BAY PACKERS
7. DENVER BRONCOS
8. CINCINNATI BENGALS
9. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
10. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Here is where a few of last year's playoff teams were ranked

26. NEW YORK GIANTS
27. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
32. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

So, I wonder if there is value in comparing the talent of various rosters.


So what are the Giants then?  They are a 9-6-1 team that owns a playoff victory (against a 13-win team in a hostile dome) that places them in the top 8 of the NFL as a jumping-off point.

So, what factors may work against the Giants?

1) Harder Schedule-  Last year, the Giants had one of the easiest schedules.  Now, they have the middle of the pack.  This is a significant issue working against the team this season.

2) Teams have tape on the Giants-  They didn't have that last season.  However, the Giants (on both sides of the ball) are so creative that game plans see major changes from week to week so this intel will have limited value.

3) Players lost or who might regress (PFF grade provided)

At least 100 snaps

C Feliciano- 1000+ snaps 57.4
WR Richie James- 600 snaps  72.0
OL Nick Gates 400 snaps 60.0
OL Tyree Philips 365 snaps 50.5
WR Marcus Johnson 324 snaps 55.0
TE Chris Myrick 300 snaps 63.2
WR David Sills 269 snaps 55.9
WR Kenny Golladay 267 snaps 55.6
TE Tanner Hudson 258 snaps 60.1
TE Nick Vaught 153 snaps 52.9
G Jack Anderson 148 snaps 47.9
S Julian Love 1133 snaps 66.7
CB Fabian Moreau 860 snaps 56.5
ILB Jaylon Smith 724 snaps 56.4
Edge Oshane Ximines 529 snaps 56.6 (is on the practice squad)
ILB Tae Crowder 445 snaps 29.6
DL Justin Ellis 377 snaps 30.1
Edge Tomon Fox 327 snaps 38.6 (is on the practice squad)
DL Henry Mondeaux  249 snaps 29.7
DL Nick Williams 227 snaps 59.9
DL Ryder Anders 193 snaps  40.7
S Tony Jefferson 193 snaps 62.3
S Landon Collins 171 snaps 63.6
ILB Jarrad Davis 165 snaps 57.5
CB Rodarious Williams 147 snaps 58.1

With only a few exceptions, last year's team had some poor players taking significant snaps who were all allowed to leave the team.  I'm not sure how much this is a negative.

So, what is working in the Giants' favor?

1) The coaching staff is more or less unchanged; this is the system's second year.  There are a lot of reasons for this being a positive including:

A)  Coaches know what they have so they can maximize the system.  It wasn't hard to see the Giants were still tweaking the system as the season went on

B) Less square pegs in round holes as the roster better fits the existing system

C) Players in year two of the system can learn the nuances of the system and up their game rather than just learning the system

2) Some key players poised to take a big jump, including

A) Daniel Jones
B) Jason Pinnock
C) Evan Neal
D) Leonard Williams
E) Kayvon Thibodeaux
F) Aziz Ojulari
G) Isiah Hodgins

3)  Make key additions, including

Deonte Banks
Boogie Basham
Parris Campbell
Eric Gray
Jalin Hyatt
Bobby McCain
Tre Hawkins III
Rakeem Nuñez-Roches
Bobby Okereke
Gervarrius Owens
Jordon Riley
A'Shawn Robinson
John Michael Schmitz Jr.
Isaiah Simmons
Darren Waller

4) The Giants should regress to the mean in terms of injuries.  Last year, the Giants were badly impacted by excessive injuries.  With changes made (field turf improved and more sports science) and just general statistics, there should be a significant improvement in their overall health.


As you can see, the positives strongly outweigh the negatives.   To look at it a different way, the two big areas the Giants struggled with last season were a lack of explosive pass plays and a very poor run defense (near the bottom of the league).  To that end

Lack of explosive plays, the Giants improved their line with JMS and year two Evan Neal.  They added a badly missing true number one receiving target in Waller and greatly improved the WR speed (last year the WR corps needed to be schemed open as they lacked the ability to beat coverage).  Jones being more confident and better will be the final piece of that puzzle.

To the bad run defense that was mostly due to four things

1) Lack of D-line depth
2) Poor ILB play
3) Edges not setting the edge
4) Undersized CBs being bullied

The Giants have added additions to correct all four of those problems.  With a vastly improved run defense, the rest of the defense should also improve (because offenses will have less good situations)

The only thing that can derail this contender train will be injuries.  Otherwise, the Giants are going to be one of the teams other teams don't want to be facing.

Very nice write-up and summary. I think you are spot on with your analysis. Thanks for putting this together. That's a lot of work 
I think it all depends on injuries. If we can avoid the big ones, we are going to make some noise this year

We need an emoticon of a "hat tip", LOL

"Special" to me suggests 1986 Giants.

I dont think we're special.  I think we may be "much improved" though it may not show up completely in wins and losses.

While there are many factors that will influence how this team compares to last year's, in my opinion there is no single bigger factor than Jones' play. Jones played well last year, but he played well within an extremely conservative offense designed to limit risk of turnovers and just move the chains. Given how much they have invested in their passing game this year (including the big contract to Jones), it is abundantly clear that that approach is going to change. They're not only going to throw more, but they're not going to be at the bottom of the league anymore in air yards per attempt. If Jones struggles with this higher risk, more downfield type approach, the team still has enough talent that they should be able to pivot towards something more like last year if they need to and still cobble out an 8-9 type year, but I can't see them taking a meaningful step above last year's record if that's the case.

Obviously there are plenty of other important factors that will influence how this season goes. But I would argue that no single one of them is bigger than the above. Hopefully we see Jones make the leap this year.

Rich, curious of your reasoning for Leonard Williams taking a big jump this year. Healthier I assume? Still, a year older and possibly more prone to breaking down.

Nice write up. There are several on that list I'd have no problem keeping either as a starter or definitely a back up.

One thing that I think most people put a lot of weight into is the schedule.

I believe you have to take that with a decent grain of salt. Who thought the Giants were gonna be a tough out? Generally, most thought our team last year would be a cake walk of a game, yet we won a playoff game.

Many things change and each year at least there are 4 new playoff teams, plus we never know how injuries will impact the teams, as well as how many improved by draft/fa and how many stayed at the same level or regressed.

Quote from: Sem on September 03, 2023, 12:22:23 PMRich, curious of your reasoning for Leonard Williams taking a big jump this year. Healthier I assume? Still, a year older and possibly more prone to breaking down.

Leo suffered a pretty bad neck stinger that caused him to miss games and bothered him for the rest of the season (he didn't heal until he could rest in the offseason).  Both Leonard and Dex were overused last year out of necessity.  The addition of Robinson and Nacho should allow both Dex and Leonard to see their snap counts drop.  They should drop to a level that will allow them to be more productive and effective when they are in there.  Not overworking them should also reduce the risk of injury

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on September 03, 2023, 12:21:45 PMWhile there are many factors that will influence how this team compares to last year's, in my opinion there is no single bigger factor than Jones' play. Jones played well last year, but he played well within an extremely conservative offense designed to limit risk of turnovers and just move the chains. Given how much they have invested in their passing game this year (including the big contract to Jones), it is abundantly clear that that approach is going to change. They're not only going to throw more, but they're not going to be at the bottom of the league anymore in air yards per attempt. If Jones struggles with this higher risk, more downfield type approach, the team still has enough talent that they should be able to pivot towards something more like last year if they need to and still cobble out an 8-9 type year, but I can't see them taking a meaningful step above last year's record if that's the case.

Obviously there are plenty of other important factors that will influence how this season goes. But I would argue that no single one of them is bigger than the above. Hopefully we see Jones make the leap this year.

I can't help but feel like there is a mistaken belief that we don't know what Jones can do when he goes deep.

Here is 2022

The 6-foot-5, 230-pound quarterback had some success when he did throw the ball downfield last season. His 119.3 passer rating on deep passes was the third-highest in the NFL, while his 43.5 deep completion percentage ranked ninth.

Jones' strong performance in 2022 led to him receiving a multi-year contract extension from the Giants earlier this offseason.

Here are PFF's top 10 deep passers from the 2022 season:

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints

https://www.giants.com/news/daniel-jones-pro-football-focus-top-deep-passers-nfl-quarterbacks-2023#:~:text=His%20119.3%20passer%20rating%20on,deep%20completion%20percentage%20ranked%20ninth.

Nor is this a fluke, here is 2020

In 14 games in 2020, Jones completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,943 yards and 11 touchdowns. However, his numbers improved significantly when throwing the ball down the field (pass attempts of 20+ air yards).

Below is the data released by Next Gen Stats, which looks at his completion percentage on deep throws, his expected completion percentage on said passes, and his completion percentage over expectation:

Deep attempts: 19-of-39, 636 yards, 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 134.3 passer rating

Comp: 48.7%

xComp: 33.9%

CPOE: +14.8%

As Shook writes, "Jones went deep just 39 times but was very effective when doing so, and his year-to-year improvement is incredibly encouraging. After posting a CPOE of -4.9 percent in 2019, Jones took a massive leap in 2020 to +14.8 percent, an improvement of +19.7 percentage points, the largest in the entire league from 2019 to 2020. It seems head coach Joe Judge's arrival did more than just turn the Giants into a scrappy bunch -- it also elevated Jones' effectiveness downfield. His passer rating on deep throws was the highest in the league at 134.3, and his completion percentage on such attempts (48.7) was the fourth-highest mark."

https://www.giants.com/news/next-gen-stats-daniel-jones-top-deep-passer-2020-completion-percentage

Just keep in mind that all 31 other teams are also trying to get better and improve their roster and looking for young players to take the next step. Sure, some teams failed spectacularly at doing so *cough* Cardinals *cough*, but many teams, including the ones we're considers lesser than have also made these improvements. If the rest of the league stood pat, I would wholeheartedly agree with your asessement, but the Giants do not exist in such a vacuum.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

Quote from: Uni on September 03, 2023, 01:21:47 PMJust keep in mind that all 31 other teams are also trying to get better and improve their roster and looking for young players to take the next step. Sure, some teams failed spectacularly at doing so *cough* Cardinals *cough*, but many teams, including the ones we're considers lesser than have also made these improvements. If the rest of the league stood pat, I would wholeheartedly agree with your asessement, but the Giants do not exist in such a vacuum.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

The other thing to remember is that all the teams have losses and negatives (which the media rarely covers).  I made sure to look at all the factors, both positive and negative, in terms of improvement or regression.

Can't wait for SNF so we can see what we have vs speculate

Love your point about the team concept.  And keeping both coordinators, HC, and GM the same for two seasons in a row...when was the last time that happened for the Giants?

Quote from: Philosophers on September 03, 2023, 12:18:15 PM"Special" to me suggests 1986 Giants.

I dont think we're special.  I think we may be "much improved" though it may not show up completely in wins and losses.

Stop with the "it may not show up in wins and loses."  If we're a better team we need to beat better teams. That logic is TOTAL BS.

Quote from: 4xchamps on September 03, 2023, 07:37:08 PMStop with the "it may not show up in wins and loses."  If we're a better team we need to beat better teams. That logic is TOTAL BS.

Not true we won a SB at 9-7 vs an undefeated team!

Total wins don't mean crap!  It's having enough to get to have a chance to go to the SB that matter

Quote from: Slugsy-Narrows on September 03, 2023, 07:42:00 PMNot true we won a SB at 9-7 vs an undefeated team!

Total wins don't mean crap!  It's having enough to get to have a chance to go to the SB that matter

Yes, we won the Superbowl. We didn't say the "schedule was too hard." Should I remind you we weren't 9-7. We were 13-7. That's not a "regression" or a poor record... we beat 18-0 New England, we beat Tampa, we beat the Cowboys who were 14-2??? We didn't blame the schedule.