Mike Lombardi talked about how there are only 12 first-round picks in this draft
Randy Mueller said that the talent drops off quickly on day three and that many day three picks will be no better than undrafted rookie free agents.
Those two issues will greatly impact how teams address this year's draft.
For example- the 11th pick of the Vikings has good value, the 23rd pick, not so much
Late round picks will have less value in trades making it more difficult to engineer trades
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 23, 2024, 08:42:45 AMMike Lombardi talked about how there are only 12 first-round picks in this draft
Randy Mueller said that the talent drops off quickly on day three and that many day three picks will be no better than undrafted rookie free agents.
Those two issues will greatly impact how teams address this year's draft.
For example- the 11th pick of the Vikings has good value, the 23rd pick, not so much
Late round picks will have less value in trades making it more difficult to engineer trades
I have a hard time believing that the perspectives of the 32 currently employed GMs is on par with these two
FORMER GMs.
I mean, if that's the case, just cancel rounds 4-7 and get on with training camp.
I'm not knocking their perspectives but I don't think it's prevailing. Hell, if they were that attuned, they'd still have jobs, no?
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 09:17:11 AMI have a hard time believing that the perspectives of the 32 currently employed GMs is on par with these two FORMER GMs.
I mean, if that's the case, just cancel rounds 4-7 and get on with training camp.
I'm not knocking their perspectives but I don't think it's prevailing. Hell, if they were that attuned, they'd still have jobs, no?
Tim,
Unlike coaches, there is no GM merry-go-round. While there have been a few GM retreads, it's no where near as common as head coaching retreads. Still both men are pretty accomplished. First here is Mueller's resume
As an executive:
Seattle Seahawks (1983–1989)
Pro personnel assistant
Seattle Seahawks (1990–1994)
Pro personnel director
Seattle Seahawks (1995–1999)
Vice president of football operations
New Orleans Saints (2000–2001)
General manager
Miami Dolphins (2005–2007)
General manager
Los Angeles Chargers (2008–2018)
Senior executive for football operations
Salt Lake Stallions (2018–2019)
General manager
Houston Roughnecks (2020)
Director of pro personnel
Seattle Sea Dragons (2022–2023)
Director of player personnel
Career highlights and awards
NFL Executive of the Year (2000)
As for Lombardi, he has learned from some of the greatest football minds (Al Davis, Bill Walsh, Bill Belichick). I think Mike has some personal flaws that have made it difficult for him to enjoy success as a GM, but his knowledge is second to know and he is always worth listening to.
Finally, both of these are still well connected in the league. So their commentary is a combination of what their trained eyes see, along with what they hear in the league (hearing what people who get the respect of being former NFL will hear)
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 09:17:11 AMI have a hard time believing that the perspectives of the 32 currently employed GMs is on par with these two FORMER GMs.
I mean, if that's the case, just cancel rounds 4-7 and get on with training camp.
I'm not knocking their perspectives but I don't think it's prevailing. Hell, if they were that attuned, they'd still have jobs, no?
I agree in theory, but I doubt these 2 think there are 12 and there are current GM's who think there are 25 true first rounders. Yes, some may feel there are a few more, and some a few less. If I had to guess, I would think 80% of the GM probably feel like there are 10-16.
Quote from: coggs on April 23, 2024, 09:33:53 AMI agree in theory, but I doubt these 2 think there are 12 and there are current GM's who think there are 25 true first rounders. Yes, some may feel there are a few more, and some a few less. If I had to guess, I would think 80% of the GM probably feel like there are 10-16.
In most draft classes, the number of first-round graded talent is in the 20s. This is a particularly lean year thanks to NIL
It is an interesting debate but I think they have overstated to get maximum attention/coverage and it is not necessarily reflective of current GM sentiment.
I have listened to pre-draft interviews with Wolf and Ossenfort in the last week or so (looking for clues with them at 3,4) as well as Schoen. All three indicated they had at least a "normal" (assume 20 or so) set of first round grades (Schoen actually leant towards deep in my interpretation of his words).
They all seemed to feel the draft was relatively deep day 2. They all noted NIL had thinned options out but Schoen spelt out that day 3 depth depended on position with some deep right until the end and others much thinner. How day 3 looks depends on what you need and your willingness to draft BPA rather than reaching for need.
In the last couple of days both the Colts (7 picks) and Packers (11) GMs have indicated they'd be open to trading back for "more bullets". Not something you would expect if quality was seen as desperately thin.
Without a doubt NIL is having an impact. FWIW I have more first round grades than I did last year driven by QB, OL and WR where I have a combined 14 vs 7 last year. The D is definitely thinner at the top. I had 5 CB rated as high or higher last year than my favourite guy this year (Mitchell) and my top Edge this year would have been ED4 last year. So for me it is not a D draft day one but D arguably offers better day 3 depth (with only RB having nice depth on O). Smart GMs will adjust accordingly.
Quote from: londonblue on April 23, 2024, 10:51:41 AMIt is an interesting debate but I think they have overstated to get maximum attention/coverage and it is not necessarily reflective of current GM sentiment.
I have listened to pre-draft interviews with Wolf and Ossenfort in the last week or so (looking for clues with them at 3,4) as well as Schoen. All three indicated they had at least a "normal" (assume 20 or so) set of first round grades (Schoen actually leant towards deep in my interpretation of his words).
They all seemed to feel the draft was relatively deep day 2. They all noted NIL had thinned options out but Schoen spelt out that day 3 depth depended on position with some deep right until the end and others much thinner. How day 3 looks depends on what you need and your willingness to draft BPA rather than reaching for need.
In the last couple of days both the Colts (7 picks) and Packers (11) GMs have indicated they'd be open to trading back for "more bullets". Not something you would expect if quality was seen as desperately thin.
Without a doubt NIL is having an impact. FWIW I have more first round grades than I did last year driven by QB, OL and WR where I have a combined 14 vs 7 last year. The D is definitely thinner at the top. I had 5 CB rated as high or higher last year than my favourite guy this year (Mitchell) and my top Edge this year would have been ED4 last year. So for me it is not a D draft day one but D arguably offers better day 3 depth (with only RB having nice depth on O). Smart GMs will adjust accordingly.
Neil,
When are you going to share your grades with us?
Mighty, I back and forth with Ceri for months in the run up to the draft so I guess a bit of my brain seeps into his around the edges. At this point my Board is specific only to players I would take (so fit as well as grade) but by position and within position in order here are my first rounders:
QB: Williams*, Maye*, McCarthy, Daniels
RB: N/A
TE: Bowers
WR: Harrison Jr*, Odunze*, Nabers, Thomas Jr
OT: Alt, Fuaga, Latham, Fashanu, Fautanu
IOL: Barton
ED: Verse
DE/DT: Murphy
LB: N/A
S/NCB: N/A
CB: Mitchell, Arnold
19 in total
Of the above I only have 4 with potential gold-jacket/multiple all-pro grades as indicated by *
If I have any medical or character Qs I exclude them from * status but keep in R1 if I deem them 'minor'
4 bigger medical Qs not included above but grade high enough for me if cleared to have a R1 grade: Latu, Newton, DeJean, McKinstry
Just my view. My lack of love for the D guys shines through with some notable omissions.
Quote from: londonblue on April 23, 2024, 11:55:04 AMMighty, I back and forth with Ceri for months in the run up to the draft so I guess a bit of my brain seeps into his around the edges. At this point my Board is specific only to players I would take (so fit as well as grade) but by position and within position in order here are my first rounders:
QB: Williams*, Maye*, McCarthy, Daniels
RB: N/A
TE: Bowers
WR: Harrison Jr*, Odunze*, Nabers, Thomas Jr
OT: Alt, Fuaga, Latham, Fashanu, Fautanu
IOL: Barton
ED: Verse
DE/DT: Murphy
LB: N/A
S/NCB: N/A
CB: Mitchell, Arnold
19 in total
Of the above I only have 4 with potential gold-jacket/multiple all-pro grades as indicated by *
If I have any medical or character Qs I exclude them from * status but keep in R1 if I deem them 'minor'
4 bigger medical Qs not included above but grade high enough for me if cleared to have a R1 grade: Latu, Newton, DeJean, McKinstry
Just my view. My lack of love for the D guys shines through with some notable omissions.
Interesting list, there was nothing there I would say I disagree with. Thanks for sharing
Quote from: londonblue on April 23, 2024, 11:55:04 AMMighty, I back and forth with Ceri for months in the run up to the draft so I guess a bit of my brain seeps into his around the edges. At this point my Board is specific only to players I would take (so fit as well as grade) but by position and within position in order here are my first rounders:
QB: Williams*, Maye*, McCarthy, Daniels
RB: N/A
TE: Bowers
WR: Harrison Jr*, Odunze*, Nabers, Thomas Jr
OT: Alt, Fuaga, Latham, Fashanu, Fautanu
IOL: Barton
ED: Verse
DE/DT: Murphy
LB: N/A
S/NCB: N/A
CB: Mitchell, Arnold
19 in total
Of the above I only have 4 with potential gold-jacket/multiple all-pro grades as indicated by *
If I have any medical or character Qs I exclude them from * status but keep in R1 if I deem them 'minor'
4 bigger medical Qs not included above but grade high enough for me if cleared to have a R1 grade: Latu, Newton, DeJean, McKinstry
Just my view. My lack of love for the D guys shines through with some notable omissions.
Interested why you don't see Dallas Turner as a first-rounder.
Only 12 true 1st rounders? Well, don't expect a lot of trading back, if the employed GMs feel the same way!
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 23, 2024, 12:03:06 PMInterested why you don't see Dallas Turner as a first-rounder.
He will go first round because he has decent stats and went to Bama but when I watched him I just did not see a single exceptional trait I could hang my evaluation around.
He's a high day two guy for me who will be solid, maybe even a bit more if in a favourable situation with others drawing double teams but I did not see an alpha dog.
There have been a lot of Crimson Tide edges with good stats over-drafted down the years and that tipped me out rather than in.
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 09:17:11 AMI have a hard time believing that the perspectives of the 32 currently employed GMs is on par with these two FORMER GMs.
I mean, if that's the case, just cancel rounds 4-7 and get on with training camp.
I'm not knocking their perspectives but I don't think it's prevailing. Hell, if they were that attuned, they'd still have jobs, no?
There's an old saying that would seem to fit the case.
Those who know don't talk. Those who talk don't know.