Big Blue Huddle

How do you feel about the Brian Burns trade and its impact on the Giants' long- and short-term term?


The Giants get:

Brian Burns
2024 5th round pick (No. 166)

The Panthers get:

2024 2nd round pick (No. 39)
2024 5th round pick (No. 141)
2025 5th round pick

(https://i.imgur.com/4BxBK35.png)

Pass rushers are the game changers on defense and good ones aren't easy to obtain nor are they cheap. The Giants needed a dependable pass rusher opposite of Thibs and they got a young player who should only get better. So I give the trade a 5. After all that 2nd rounder they gave up could have been a complete bust.

He's a top ten DE/Edge. Paired with Thibs and with Dex up the middle, they went from an average to one of the better Lines and with Ojulari they have a solid third and long pass rush. They get four years out of him before he's 30. It's a flat contract that doesn't back load. It a two year out post June 1st and a three year out pre. If the Giants had to move up from the second round to get an Edge, they would have to give up a heck of lot more than a fifth round pick and he's a proven commodity vs a risk.

What's not to like? With some coaching they can improve his Run Defense.

I think we need to consider this trade with the understanding that the Giants are not good at the draft. When was the last time they drafted a player as good as Burns in the 2nd round?

Burns, Thibs, and Dex have a chance to be special over the next half decade. We needed to make a move like this.

The draft pick capital invested is a great value, the amount of cap space invested will remain to be seen. 

Quote from: Doc16LT56 on March 13, 2024, 09:09:28 AMI think we need to consider this trade with the understanding that the Giants are not good at the draft. When was the last time they drafted a player as good as Burns in the 2nd round?

Burns, Thibs, and Dex have a chance to be special over the next half decade. We needed to make a move like this.

The only way a team can have sustained success is through the draft.  If they can't draft well, that needs to be corrected rather than trying to work around the issue.

I am pretty down on this trade myself.

The Giants gave Burns the sort of contract that would have allowed the Giants to sign one of the free-agent edge rushers and saved the draft capital they spent.

As Mike Lombardi said, Brian Burns is not a blue-chip player.  There can be an argument made that he is a red chipper.  The problem, in my eye, is that the Giants spent cap and draft capital like Brian Burns was a blue-chip player, and he hasn't shown that in his 4 years in the league.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 13, 2024, 09:12:50 AMThe draft pick capital invested is a great value, the amount of cap space invested will remain to be seen.

Who did you want to use the cap space on? The team needs star players and those guys don't grow on trees. As it stands, it's a 3 year commitment to Burns, so he will need to live up to expectations if he wants to see the full contract paid out, and the cap hit is much easier to swallow once Daniel Jones is off the team next year.

Quote from: Doc16LT56 on March 13, 2024, 09:24:57 AMWho did you want to use the cap space on? The team needs star players and those guys don't grow on trees. As it stands, it's a 3 year commitment to Burns, so he will need to live up to expectations if he wants to see the full contract paid out, and the cap hit is much easier to swallow once Daniel Jones is off the team next year.

The Giants could have signed Josh Allen for that sort of money and kept their draft picks

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 09:21:42 AMThe only way a team can have sustained success is through the draft.  If they can't draft well, that needs to be corrected rather than trying to work around the issue.

The Giants have to get better at scouting and player development. No argument from me. But investing draft capital in a proven edge rusher like Burns makes more sense to me than throwing another dart at a college pass rusher like Azeez, Elerson, Ximines, Lorenzo Carter, Odigi, Damontre Moore, Clint Sintim... the list of failed edge picks goes back 20 years before we get to a hit in Osi. We needed a better pass rush and we now have a better pass rush.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 09:37:36 AMThe Giants could have signed Josh Allen for that sort of money and kept their draft picks

They should have drafted Josh Allen (the edge rusher) when they had the chance a few years back. I don't believe he's available but would love to have him if he is.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 09:37:36 AMThe Giants could have signed Josh Allen for that sort of money and kept their draft picks

Yea but you mentioned draft capital as being important

Yes we gave up and 2nd and a 5th

But because we traded for him ... it does not affect the comp pick situation we got with X and Barkley leaving.... Ashawn as well too I believe

So by next years draft it can look like we In essence traded

a 2&5 for Burns and two 3rds and possibly another for Ashawn

This trade can end up being on Genius levels

Quote from: killarich on March 13, 2024, 09:52:32 AMYea but you mentioned draft capital as being important

Yes we gave up and 2nd and a 5th

But because we traded for him ... it does not affect the comp pick situation we got with X and Barkley leaving.... Ashawn as well too I believe

So by next years draft it can look like we In essence traded

a 2&5 for Burns and two 3rds and possibly another for Ashawn

This trade can end up being on Genius levels

We signed free agent O-line and RB which will offset some of those comp picks

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 09:54:16 AMWe signed free agent O-line and RB which will offset some of those comp picks

Does actual contract numbers factor into that though ? If that's the case ...excluding the trade we still lost more than we gained by a lot

Even Ashawn got a hefty contract

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 09:37:36 AMThe Giants could have signed Josh Allen for that sort of money and kept their draft picks

You are assuming he would have came here.

Thats a big mistake fans often make when looking at FA - "well we could have just signed so and so..."

- maybe we reached out and they werent interested
- maybe we think Burns is a much better player

We cant assume every FA would have signed with us if we went a different route.

Quote from: JT39 on March 13, 2024, 10:05:29 AMYou are assuming he would have came here.

Thats a big mistake fans often make when looking at FA - "well we could have just signed so and so..."

- maybe we reached out and they werent interested
- maybe we think Burns is a much better player

We cant assume every FA would have signed with us if we went a different route.

There were enough quality edge rushers available that one of them would have signed if they were offered a contract that made them the 2nd highest paid Edge rusher in the league

Quote from: Doc16LT56 on March 13, 2024, 09:24:57 AMWho did you want to use the cap space on? The team needs star players and those guys don't grow on trees. As it stands, it's a 3 year commitment to Burns, so he will need to live up to expectations if he wants to see the full contract paid out, and the cap hit is much easier to swallow once Daniel Jones is off the team next year.

No one in mind.  If he continues to be a 9 sack guy that plays mediocre run defense I think it will ultimately be considered similar to the Olivier Vernon signing. 

I hope he plays his best football over the next several years but just like the team hasn't drafted well, they haven't signed a lot of FAs that came in lived up to it either.  This is this regime's first big signing, but the lesser ones on the OL didn't work out too well thus far, so while I understand your sentiment, not sure I have any more confidence in the pro-personnel department than I have in the college scouting.

Really my biggest issue is that it feels like a little desperation on Schoen's and Daboll's part.  Its year 3 of the regime, and they took huge steps backwards last year and now have new coordinators that need new guys and the HC needs to turn things around to keep his job.  Just seems like familiar territory. 

Whether Jones's contract is there or not and its easier to digest his cap hit, its sill 60 million+ in cap space for 3 players on the DL over the next few years if Dex, Burns and Thibodeaux all stay put. Maybe 23% of the cap in one position group is healthy, it doesn't seem it to me, but the DL is pretty important, especially in a division with two of the best OLs in the league.

Bottom line is that I think this could work really well to have bookend DEs that can rush the passer and create a great DL, but I am skeptical.  Pass rushers are a lot better when a team scores a lot of points and has the lead.  Has the team done anything to date to make you think the offense will improve?  Further, what other moves need to be made on defense to fit the scheme?  Is McFadden going to fit this scheme?  How about the guys in the secondary?  Is it heavy man or zone? 

I am going to be skeptical until I see results. 

In essence it comes down to this: Schoen's theory of team building is "positional value"...pay the big bucks to positions that are game changers. It was Bill Belichick's theory of team building. As pointed out in this morning's NY Post (subscriber's only), [some excerpts] "...in this team-building theory (the GM) weighs offensive line, edge rusher, cornerback and receivers significantly more than running backs, inside linebackers and safeties...

[in picking up Burns]...essentially redirecting the annual cost of running back Saquon Barkley's $12.5 million per year contract and Xavier McKinney's $17 million per year contract...while signing guard Jon Runyan Jr. and tackle Jermaine Eluemunor to be offensive line starters.

It fits with Schoen's use of draft picks so far. He has used his eight-highest draft picks on — and given five of his six free-agent contracts with the biggest guarantees to — players at high-value positions (including quarterback), with the lone exception being every-snap middle linebacker Bobby Okereke."

Conclusion is that the one area considered "high-value" yet to be addressed is WR (as the high value position of CB was addressed last draft) or possibly another CB. Reading the tea leaves suggest that Schoen is eyeing WRs or possibly another CB with his first two picks of this upcoming draft. It is unlikely that Schoen will give the highest contract to a position that is not high-value

On the other hand...no one really knows what Schoen is thinking  :-??

The Jaguars placed the NFL's non-exclusive franchise tag on Allen, meaning he can negotiate and sign with another team. The Jaguars would have the right to match the offer; if the Jaguars did not match the offer in that scenario, they would receive two first-round draft selections from the team that signed Allen.

https://www.jaguars.com/news/official-jaguars-place-franchise-tag-on-josh-allen

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 09:37:36 AMThe Giants could have signed Josh Allen for that sort of money and kept their draft picks

he was tagged and Jacksonville has shown no interest in trading him, so its 2 different situations.

Walter Football failed to record that

https://walterfootball.com/freeagents2024OLB.php

Here are other edge rushers the Giants could have signed without giving up draft capital and likely most of them would have been cheaper than Burns

https://walterfootball.com/freeagents2024DE.php

https://walterfootball.com/freeagents2024OLB.php

Quote from: JT39 on March 13, 2024, 10:28:38 AMhe was tagged and Jacksonville has shown no interest in trading him, so its 2 different situations.

17.5 sacks... how big would that contract be, $200 million? Plus two first round picks. I don't think he's leaving Jacksonville this year.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 10:32:35 AMHere are other edge rushers the Giants could have signed without giving up draft capital and likely most of them would have been cheaper than Burns

https://walterfootball.com/freeagents2024DE.php

https://walterfootball.com/freeagents2024OLB.php

And it could be easily argued that none are nearly as good except for Hunter who cost a little less but is much older.

I'm a big fan of the deal personally.  It ended up being a 2nd and 5th round pick next year for the most part. And what you're getting is a proven commodity that's only 26 years old. 

I love Josh Allen (LB).  I loved him coming out of college.  I was stunned to see him sitting there begging the Giants to take him, and I was ever more stunned to see them pass on him for a mediocre at best QB.  If you gave me the option of one or the other:  Burns trade + Contract or Allen with the contract I'm obviously going to pick Allen. But it's not quite that simple.  We don't know if he wanted to play for the Giants, we don't know if the new DC prefers Burns for his system for some reason.  Not to mention the Jags franchised tagged him.  As well they should.

Are there other free agents that I would prefer to Burns though?  I don't really see any.  Hunter is costing at least that much and he's almost 30 and Chase Young is probably the next guy after that I'd be interested and depending on who you talk to around here he's an outright bust. 

I think Burns better than what else is out there and while the price is hefty if he delivers 10+ sacks on one side and Kayvon delivers 10+ on the other side I don't think anybody will be too worried about the 2nd round pick.  Like any signing or trade the ultimate justification will come when we see them play but given the information at hand, and the fact that very recently a trade of 2 first rounders and a third was offered, I think the Giants robbed the Panthers blind on this deal.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 13, 2024, 10:21:17 AMNo one in mind.  If he continues to be a 9 sack guy that plays mediocre run defense I think it will ultimately be considered similar to the Olivier Vernon signing. 

I hope he plays his best football over the next several years but just like the team hasn't drafted well, they haven't signed a lot of FAs that came in lived up to it either.  This is this regime's first big signing, but the lesser ones on the OL didn't work out too well thus far, so while I understand your sentiment, not sure I have any more confidence in the pro-personnel department than I have in the college scouting.

Really my biggest issue is that it feels like a little desperation on Schoen's and Daboll's part.  Its year 3 of the regime, and they took huge steps backwards last year and now have new coordinators that need new guys and the HC needs to turn things around to keep his job.  Just seems like familiar territory. 

Whether Jones's contract is there or not and its easier to digest his cap hit, its sill 60 million+ in cap space for 3 players on the DL over the next few years if Dex, Burns and Thibodeaux all stay put. Maybe 23% of the cap in one position group is healthy, it doesn't seem it to me, but the DL is pretty important, especially in a division with two of the best OLs in the league.

Bottom line is that I think this could work really well to have bookend DEs that can rush the passer and create a great DL, but I am skeptical.  Pass rushers are a lot better when a team scores a lot of points and has the lead.  Has the team done anything to date to make you think the offense will improve?  Further, what other moves need to be made on defense to fit the scheme?  Is McFadden going to fit this scheme?  How about the guys in the secondary?  Is it heavy man or zone? 

I am going to be skeptical until I see results. 

Great post. I think the Olivier Vernon callback is a fair caution. If Burns plays like Vernon, good but not great, I think he eventually gets traded or cut. And I'm in complete agreement with your concerns regarding the offense. The Giants took a shot here. They have a lot more work to do if they're going to turn this thing around.

Quote from: Gmo11 on March 13, 2024, 10:35:35 AMI'm a big fan of the deal personally.  It ended up being a 2nd and 5th round pick next year for the most part. And what you're getting is a proven commodity that's only 26 years old. 

I love Josh Allen (LB).  I loved him coming out of college.  I was stunned to see him sitting there begging the Giants to take him, and I was ever more stunned to see them pass on him for a mediocre at best QB.  If you gave me the option of one or the other:  Burns trade + Contract or Allen with the contract I'm obviously going to pick Allen. But it's not quite that simple.  We don't know if he wanted to play for the Giants, we don't know if the new DC prefers Burns for his system for some reason.  Not to mention the Jags franchised tagged him.  As well they should.

Are there other free agents that I would prefer to Burns though?  I don't really see any.  Hunter is costing at least that much and he's almost 30 and Chase Young is probably the next guy after that I'd be interested and depending on who you talk to around here he's an outright bust. 

I think Burns better than what else is out there and while the price is hefty if he delivers 10+ sacks on one side and Kayvon delivers 10+ on the other side I don't think anybody will be too worried about the 2nd round pick.  Like any signing or trade the ultimate justification will come when we see them play but given the information at hand, and the fact that very recently a trade of 2 first rounders and a third was offered, I think the Giants robbed the Panthers blind on this deal.

Imagine being a Raiders fan that draft day, lol

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 13, 2024, 10:21:17 AMI am going to be skeptical until I see results. 

To be fair, after the last 10 years that should be every Giants' fan posture about every move.

I rated it a 4.  I don't love that contract, mostly because how long will it be before the Giants are legitimate contenders?  Before the massive step back last year, I thought that if Jones, etc kept progressing off of two years ago, maybe the Giants could make some noise this year. Now, forget that.  So, will Burns be 30 before we can legitimately compete?  Will he even be on the team by then, or be a cap casualty?

We are essentially rebuilding, so I would much rather draft than spend big bucks on FA's. 

The price was high but the Salary Cap in 2026 will be near $300 million. Burns will still be in his prime. So should the Giants.

Quote from: Ed Vette on March 13, 2024, 11:32:06 AMThe price was high but the Salary Cap in 2026 will be near $300 million. Burns will still be in his prime. So should the Giants.

True.  Right now Dex and Burns cap hit for that year is set to be about 53 million. A lot can change that.  Thibodeaux is not under contract that far out.  He would either be under a 5th year option, not on the team or extended. 

So assuming no restructures and that cap number the 53 million is about 17.5% of the cap space.  Worrying about that now is probably getting way ahead of ourselves, but I hope someone in the organization is looking at that. 

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 13, 2024, 12:00:43 PMTrue.  Right now Dex and Burns cap hit for that year is set to be about 53 million. A lot can change that.  Thibodeaux is not under contract that far out.  He would either be under a 5th year option, not on the team or extended. 

So assuming no restructures and that cap number the 53 million is about 17.5% of the cap space.  Worrying about that now is probably getting way ahead of ourselves, but I hope someone in the organization is looking at that. 

Thomas, Dex and Burns represent $69mm or 26% of the 2024 Cap. In 2026, Spotrac anticipates the cap will be $361mm so their Cap will be 71.7mm or 20% of the Cap. If Jones is still here, his cap hit would be $58mm or 16% of the cap. The estimated Cap Space that far ahead is $162mm and that's with Waller's $17mm but without the 5th-year option of Thibs and Neal. They look good from here.

I'll add this:  We regularly see ascending teams like Houston last year,  that have a ton of cap space to fill roster gaps or re-sign guys.  Trading for and signing big names puts teams in the situation that they will never be both ascending and have a lot of cap space. 

Houston's situation is ideal and I realize certain things have to happen to get there but it doesn't make it easier to swallow that on order to get competitive the team had to spend big bucks.  Just like having a QB on a 1st contract is a big advantage so is having players at other premium positions.   

The Giants have let those years with Thomas and Dex go by without making any improvements and now have added Burns.  There is just something about having a lot of big contracts on a team that hasnt won many games that bothers me.  Right or wrong that's part of my issue with this.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 13, 2024, 12:28:58 PMI'll add this:  We regularly see ascending teams like Houston last year,  that have a ton of cap space to fill roster gaps or re-sign guys.  Trading for and signing big names puts teams in the situation that they will never be both ascending and have a lot of cap space. 

Houston's situation is ideal and I realize certain things have to happen to get there but it doesn't make it easier to swallow that on order to get competitive the team had to spend big bucks.  Just like having a QB on a 1st contract is a big advantage so is having players at other premium positions.   

The Giants have let those years with Thomas and Dex go by without making any improvements and now have added Burns.  There is just something about having a lot of big contracts on a team that hasnt won many games that bothers me.  Right or wrong that's part of my issue with this.

I think the core or root of the problem is the turnover in the Coaching Staff. I don't need to explain to you what I mean by this. I'm sure you know.

.

Pretty good company.

It seems every year that fans try to figure out how the cap money is spent and get all twisted up worrying about something that only a team of black magic CPA's understands and can figure it out and manipulate things...no matter what fan's try to come up with. All teams do whatever the hell they want and leave it to the accountants to deal with jockeying the numbers. To me, the biggest waste of time a fan can get caught up in, is trying to figure out the cap and worse, worrying about it. People in the organization get 6 figure salaries to do the "worrying", and they ALWAYS find a solution

Wr dont need the NFL sack leader.  We need a top 8 sack leader.  Someone who puts constant pressure.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 08:47:58 AMHow do you feel about the Brian Burns trade and its impact on the Giants' long- and short-term term?

Rich: It's what I call "the poor's man's extra first-round draft pick."

They get a 1st-rounder, "losing" his rookie-contract playing years but gaining the knowledge that he truly was worth a 1st-round pick (and not injury-prone). In exchange they give up a very useful pick (close to a low first-rounder), but one that with is wrought with the question-marks that come with any high pick (i.e., the draft is a crap-shoot).

All in all, I lean toward good deal. For those don't know, Burns was the player drafted before the Giants "got stuck with" a player many here complained about post-draft, whose name is Dexter Lawrence II. I truly believe the Giants wanted either of those guys in that draft... and now they have both.

Bob

This is what I'm hoping for.  I don't think 2023 was a particularly good year for Burns coming after his two prior years which were pretty good. Clearly, in my opinion, he's not currently worth what he's being paid.  But, he will draw enough attention to make Thibs better and make defenses focus on one of Burns or Dexter.  They just may get the pass rush they had in the SB years not that long ago and that would be welcome.  On the while, I'm in favor of the trade, just not in love with it.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 08:47:58 AMHow do you feel about the Brian Burns trade and its impact on the Giants' long- and short-term term?


The Giants get:

Brian Burns
2024 5th round pick (No. 166)

The Panthers get:

2024 2nd round pick (No. 39)
2024 5th round pick (No. 141)
2025 5th round pick

(https://i.imgur.com/4BxBK35.png)

Seems like Overthecap must have changed some of the numbers. Was wondering how they posted it prior to the league new year.

When this trade first happened I couldn't help think of the Olivier Vernon signing because it was a lot of projection off of what people deemed to be his potential as a pass rusher.  The more I think about it, it seems eerily similar to the trading and signing of Leonard Williams.

Can someone tell me why this trade is much different from the Leonard Williams trade?

In principle they are similar in that they traded for a player at the end of a contract that they would need to sign to keep.  The trade capital is a 2nd rounder vs a 3rd and a 5th. 

Other than Williams being an IDL and Burns being a DE, I don't see much difference.  The team stunk in both of the seasons that trade was made, with the exception that Williams was mid-season and Burns post. 

Williams contract was signed for a 3 year deal that made him the 7th highest paid player at his position, Burns is a 5 year deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid player at his position. 

Why does this trade have most people on this forum cheering and the Williams trade had almost everyone booing?  What am I missing?

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 10:47:34 AMWhen this trade first happened I couldn't help think of the Olivier Vernon signing because it was a lot of projection off of what people deemed to be his potential as a pass rusher.  The more I think about it, it seems eerily similar to the trading and signing of Leonard Williams.

Can someone tell me why this trade is much different from the Leonard Williams trade?

In principle they are similar in that they traded for a player at the end of a contract that they would need to sign to keep.  The trade capital is a 2nd rounder vs a 3rd and a 5th. 

Other than Williams being an IDL and Burns being a DE, I don't see much difference.  The team stunk in both of the seasons that trade was made, with the exception that Williams was mid-season and Burns post. 

Williams contract was signed for a 3 year deal that made him the 7th highest paid player at his position, Burns is a 5 year deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid player at his position. 

Why does this trade have most people on this forum cheering and the Williams trade had almost everyone booing?  What am I missing?

Matt,

You made a compelling argument to the point where I have to agree with you.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 10:47:34 AMWhen this trade first happened I couldn't help think of the Olivier Vernon signing because it was a lot of projection off of what people deemed to be his potential as a pass rusher.  The more I think about it, it seems eerily similar to the trading and signing of Leonard Williams.

Can someone tell me why this trade is much different from the Leonard Williams trade?

In principle they are similar in that they traded for a player at the end of a contract that they would need to sign to keep.  The trade capital is a 2nd rounder vs a 3rd and a 5th. 

Other than Williams being an IDL and Burns being a DE, I don't see much difference.  The team stunk in both of the seasons that trade was made, with the exception that Williams was mid-season and Burns post. 

Williams contract was signed for a 3 year deal that made him the 7th highest paid player at his position, Burns is a 5 year deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid player at his position. 

Why does this trade have most people on this forum cheering and the Williams trade had almost everyone booing?  What am I missing?

There are a couple of big differences.  The first being that Leonard Williams was a mid-season trade when he was about to hit free agency if the Giant were so enamored with him, they could have simply given him the same ridiculous contract the eventually gave him anyway, and saved the picks. 

The next is that the Giants were something like 1-7 at the time of the trade.  If they are entering the trade market at that point it SHOULD be to get rid of guys and collect draft picks, not the other way around.  The Burns trade was during the offseason when, presumably, the team at least has hope to be much better than what they were at the time of the Williams trade.  We knew that team stunk out loud, this 2024 team might not especially if they can draft a competent QB.

Another difference is that Williams to that point, had been nothing special.  A solid though not spectacular DT.  It didn't make any sort of sense to make that trade at that time for a player of that level.  Burns has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL from the minute he walked in the door.  This is an elite level pass rusher.  The 2024 Giants are going to be a defense first team, that much is clear, and he's better than pretty much any free agent the Giants could have reasonably acquired on defense. 

The Giants went on a 3-game winning streak with Tommmy Freaking Devito at QB last season.  This is not a team like the Panthers or even the 1-7 Giants from a few years ago that has no real hope of competing any time soon. 

When they made that trade for Williams you knew, well everybody but Gettleman anyway, that the following things were going to happen: 

1) they will not make the playoffs that season and pick again in the top 10 (only now without a high 3rd round pick)
2) they will re-sign Williams to a mega-contract that he hasn't earned because they can't let him walk after making that trade and Williams and his team know they have absolutely all of the leverage
3) by the time the Giants are good again, Williams won't be on the roster.

Anybody could have reasonably predicted those 3 things happening immediately after the deal was announced and that's exactly what happened.  I don't know if the Giants are going to be awful next year or not.  It depends on the QB position because I think the defense is going to be pretty good.  But they have a real shot at being good in 2025 if they can find even average QB play by then.  So Burns absolutely figures into that.

Quote from: Gmo11 on March 22, 2024, 11:36:25 AMThere are a couple of big differences.  The first being that Leonard Williams was a mid-season trade when he was about to hit free agency if the Giant were so enamored with him, they could have simply given him the same ridiculous contract the eventually gave him anyway, and saved the picks. 

The next is that the Giants were something like 1-7 at the time of the trade.  If they are entering the trade market at that point it SHOULD be to get rid of guys and collect draft picks, not the other way around.  The Burns trade was during the offseason when, presumably, the team at least has hope to be much better than what they were at the time of the Williams trade.  We knew that team stunk out loud, this 2024 team might not especially if they can draft a competent QB.

Another difference is that Williams to that point, had been nothing special.  A solid though not spectacular DT.  It didn't make any sort of sense to make that trade at that time for a player of that level.  Burns has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL from the minute he walked in the door.  This is an elite level pass rusher.  The 2024 Giants are going to be a defense first team, that much is clear, and he's better than pretty much any free agent the Giants could have reasonably acquired on defense. 


The Giants went on a 3-game winning streak with Tommmy Freaking Devito at QB last season.  This is not a team like the Panthers or even the 1-7 Giants from a few years ago that has no real hope of competing any time soon. 

When they made that trade for Williams you knew, well everybody but Gettleman anyway, that the following things were going to happen: 

1) they will not make the playoffs that season and pick again in the top 10 (only now without a high 3rd round pick)
2) they will re-sign Williams to a mega-contract that he hasn't earned because they can't let him walk after making that trade and Williams and his team know they have absolutely all of the leverage
3) by the time the Giants are good again, Williams won't be on the roster.

Anybody could have reasonably predicted those 3 things happening immediately after the deal was announced and that's exactly what happened.  I don't know if the Giants are going to be awful next year or not.  It depends on the QB position because I think the defense is going to be pretty good.  But they have a real shot at being good in 2025 if they can find even average QB play by then.  So Burns absolutely figures into that.

Why didn't they let Burns hit FA?  They could have paid him that big contract just like Williams.  The team went 6-11 this year, and started 2-8 rather than 1-7.  So because the Giants did it midseason rather than post-season that somehow makes the deal better?  Even though the team stunk both years?  Would the Burns trade have been worse if they made it when they were 2-8? Or the Williams trade better if it was just before he became a UFA?

What makes Burns "an elite pass rusher"  He was not even in the top 25 for sacks last year, he wasn't even close. He had 8 sacks last year, good to tie him for 40th best in the NFL.  The same amount as household names DJ Wonnum and Malcom Koonce.   

As for Williams being nothing special, I would very much make that argument for Burns who has averaged 9 sacks a season for 5 years and grades out as a below average run defender.  He has had over 10 sacks in a season once in 5 years.  Williams didn't have as many sacks, but his run defense was a lot better than that for the Jets.

Weren't two of the 3 games they won in that streak against Washington and NE?  Not exactly murderers row on the schedule there.

Sure hope you are right that this team is that close to competing.  I doubt it will be in 2024.  Even if they draft the next Patrick Mahomes I doubt the offense will be very good in that QBs rookie season.  You seem to have a lot of confidence in this team being good soon but I don't know where that comes from.  The current FO hasn't drafted anyone that jumped off the page as great in their first two years.  Maybe Banks will be that guy.  Thibodeaux did better last year, but hasn't lived up to where most had hope his level of play would be. The FA's that have been signed haven't been very good.

 The QB you seem to think that is going to lift the team needs to last to the 6th pick with at least 3 QB needy teams drafting in front of the Giants.  The current starter is coming off an ACL and his legs have been more a part of his game than his arm, the backup has been a turnover machine.  Further if they draft that QB at 6, they likely won't get a difference maker at a playmaking position in this draft. 

I would argue its likely:

1) The Giants won't make the playoffs next year and will pick in the top 10 again (only they won't have a high 2nd round pick this year)
2) They already signed Burns to a mega contract that he hasn't earned. (Williams deal made him the 7th highest paid DT, Burns makes him the 2nd highest paid EDGE and he is not the 2nd best EDGE in this league).
3) By the time the Giants are good again, one of these things will happen:  Burns will be a cap casualty, Dex will be a cap casualty or they will not sign Thibodeaux because they have already invested almost 60 million/year in the DL. 

I think any reasonable person could say those things are all very possible.

I wish I had your optimism.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 12:21:06 PMWhy didn't they let Burns hit FA?  They could have paid him that big contract just like Williams.  The team went 6-11 this year, and started 2-8 rather than 1-7.  So because the Giants did it midseason rather than post-season that somehow makes the deal better?  Even though the team stunk both years?  Would the Burns trade have been worse if they made it when they were 2-8? Or the Williams trade better if it was just before he became a UFA?

What makes Burns "an elite pass rusher"  He was not even in the top 25 for sacks last year, he wasn't even close. He had 8 sacks last year, good to tie him for 40th best in the NFL.  The same amount as household names DJ Wonnum and Malcom Koonce.   

As for Williams being nothing special, I would very much make that argument for Burns who has averaged 9 sacks a season for 5 years and grades out as a below average run defender.  He has had over 10 sacks in a season once in 5 years.  Williams didn't have as many sacks, but his run defense was a lot better than that for the Jets.

Weren't two of the 3 games they won in that streak against Washington and NE?  Not exactly murderers row on the schedule there.

Sure hope you are right that this team is that close to competing.  I doubt it will be in 2024.  Even if they draft the next Patrick Mahomes I doubt the offense will be very good in that QBs rookie season.  You seem to have a lot of confidence in this team being good soon but I don't know where that comes from.  The current FO hasn't drafted anyone that jumped off the page as great in their first two years.  Maybe Banks will be that guy.  Thibodeaux did better last year, but hasn't lived up to where most had hope his level of play would be. The FA's that have been signed haven't been very good.

 The QB you seem to think that is going to lift the team needs to last to the 6th pick with at least 3 QB needy teams drafting in front of the Giants.  The current starter is coming off an ACL and his legs have been more a part of his game than his arm, the backup has been a turnover machine.  Further if they draft that QB at 6, they likely won't get a difference maker at a playmaking position in this draft. 

I would argue its likely:

1) The Giants won't make the playoffs next year and will pick in the top 10 again (only they won't have a high 2nd round pick this year)
2) They already signed Burns to a mega contract that he hasn't earned. (Williams deal made him the 7th highest paid DT, Burns makes him the 2nd highest paid EDGE and he is not the 2nd best EDGE in this league).
3) By the time the Giants are good again, one of these things will happen:  Burns will be a cap casualty, Dex will be a cap casualty or they will not sign Thibodeaux because they have already invested almost 60 million/year in the DL. 

I think any reasonable person could say those things are all very possible.

I wish I had your optimism.

Anything is possible.  But I would be a lot more surprised if those things all happened. And you're not really accounting for the big difference in a mid-season trade vs an off season one.  Yes, you let Williams hit free agency, it's 7 weeks away and by that point he was going to be a free agent no matter who traded for him.  Which they did.  Burns was highly unlikely to make it to free agency.  The Giants got him for so little that you can rest assured another team would have offered something similar and then signed him to this big deal.  Or at the very least franchise tagged him.  The jets made their intentions well known they were not going to franchise tag Williams and why would they?  He was a run stuffing DT with litle in the way of pass rushing skills at that time.

Burns is certainly an elite pass rusher.  He ranks 12th in Sacks and QB hits since his rookie season he was top 10 in pass rush win rate last season and all of that is without Dexter Lawrence next to him.  If the Rams were willing to give up 2 first round picks for this guy, in the midst of a playoff  run, what does that tell you?  If you're looking for him to be LT then...well...no he's not that.  But look around the league these days.  He's not in the TJ Watt category but he's not far away and he's been doing it on his own.  Now he's got Thibs and Dexy.  So yea you're projecting a bit but that's the nature of this business. Thibs/Dex/Burns should make it a nightmare for opposing offenses.

The QB play the Giants were afforded last year was some of the worst you'll ever see.  Yes, Washington and New England were two of the teams Devito beat (Along with the pretty good Packers by the way) but he shouldn't be good enough to beat any team.  He's, respectfully, atrocious.  That defense dragged him to 3 wins and they just added a very nice piece to it.  Yes they lost McKinney and Adoree Jackson (who was nothing special last year) but otherwise this defense is coming back mostly intact but with Burns added to it.

Giants are pretty clearing planning on winning with defense for at least this season and likely the next couple.  They've got a bunch of young talented players on that side of the ball and if the offense can give them just league average performance that's going to mean a huge lift in the wins column. 

Anything can happen, this is all a gamble and there's risk in every decision.  Could this whole thing blow up?  Sure it could.  But the Williams thing blowing up was more than predictable.  This would be surprising to me if it completely blew up. 

Quote from: Gmo11 on March 22, 2024, 01:15:26 PMAnything is possible.  But I would be a lot more surprised if those things all happened. And you're not really accounting for the big difference in a mid-season trade vs an off season one.  Yes, you let Williams hit free agency, it's 7 weeks away and by that point he was going to be a free agent no matter who traded for him.  Which they did.  Burns was highly unlikely to make it to free agency.  The Giants got him for so little that you can rest assured another team would have offered something similar and then signed him to this big deal.  Or at the very least franchise tagged him.  The jets made their intentions well known they were not going to franchise tag Williams and why would they?  He was a run stuffing DT with litle in the way of pass rushing skills at that time.

Burns is certainly an elite pass rusher.  He ranks 12th in Sacks and QB hits since his rookie season he was top 10 in pass rush win rate last season and all of that is without Dexter Lawrence next to him.  If the Rams were willing to give up 2 first round picks for this guy, in the midst of a playoff  run, what does that tell you?  If you're looking for him to be LT then...well...no he's not that.  But look around the league these days.  He's not in the TJ Watt category but he's not far away and he's been doing it on his own.  Now he's got Thibs and Dexy.  So yea you're projecting a bit but that's the nature of this business. Thibs/Dex/Burns should make it a nightmare for opposing offenses.

The QB play the Giants were afforded last year was some of the worst you'll ever see.  Yes, Washington and New England were two of the teams Devito beat (Along with the pretty good Packers by the way) but he shouldn't be good enough to beat any team.  He's, respectfully, atrocious.  That defense dragged him to 3 wins and they just added a very nice piece to it.  Yes they lost McKinney and Adoree Jackson (who was nothing special last year) but otherwise this defense is coming back mostly intact but with Burns added to it.

Giants are pretty clearing planning on winning with defense for at least this season and likely the next couple.  They've got a bunch of young talented players on that side of the ball and if the offense can give them just league average performance that's going to mean a huge lift in the wins column. 

Anything can happen, this is all a gamble and there's risk in every decision.  Could this whole thing blow up?  Sure it could.  But the Williams thing blowing up was more than predictable.  This would be surprising to me if it completely blew up. 

You make some good points.

If Carolina was willing to trade with the Giants, then it seems like they were not going to tag him.  Yes maybe another team would have made an offer.  I really don't remember if another team made an offer for Williams (who by the way just signed another contract similar to the one he had with the Giants). 

If Burns ranks 12th in sacks over that period, how is he elite? This whole "sack win rate" and "pressures" is the exact stuff I heard when Olivier Vernon was signed.  Is he really worth the 2nd highest contract for an EDGE?  Guess we will find out.  Sure hope his presence helps Thibodeaux and him because neither has really set the world on fire. 

It could be a nightmare for opposing offenses if the run defense improves (not a strong point of Burns) AND the offense gets better.   Hoping to win with defense in today's NFL doesn't exactly inspire much confidence for me.  In order to do that you have to have some semblance of being able to move the ball consistently on offense to at least change field position.  It's just not a winning formula today. 

To me this move is similar in that DG really thought Williams would help the Giants the next year and thereafter compete with defense.  It was a desperation move on his part.  This move feels oddly similar for a HC that may be gone if he has another 6 win season. 

Like I said, I hope I am wrong and Burns is as good as advertised.  And they are able to win with defense.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 01:47:29 PMYou make some good points.

If Carolina was willing to trade with the Giants, then it seems like they were not going to tag him.  Yes maybe another team would have made an offer.  I really don't remember if another team made an offer for Williams (who by the way just signed another contract similar to the one he had with the Giants). 

If Burns ranks 12th in sacks over that period, how is he elite? This whole "sack win rate" and "pressures" is the exact stuff I heard when Olivier Vernon was signed.  Is he really worth the 2nd highest contract for an EDGE?  Guess we will find out.  Sure hope his presence helps Thibodeaux and him because neither has really set the world on fire. 

It could be a nightmare for opposing offenses if the run defense improves (not a strong point of Burns) AND the offense gets better.  Hoping to win with defense in today's NFL doesn't exactly inspire much confidence for me.  In order to do that you have to have some semblance of being able to move the ball consistently on offense to at least change field position.  It's just not a winning formula today. 

To me this move is similar in that DG really thought Williams would help the Giants the next year and thereafter compete with defense.  It was a desperation move on his part.  This move feels oddly similar for a HC that may be gone if he has another 6 win season. 

Like I said, I hope I am wrong and Burns is as good as advertised.  And they are able to win with defense.

I agree with the 2nd bolded part there.  Winning with defense isn't ideal anymore.  No argument.  However to win with offense you need a QB and the Giants don't have one.  So for this particular team, at least this particular season, they don't really have a choice.  The only other option would be to sign nobody at all, trade away everything of any value, and really make a run at the #1 pick in the draft next season.  And that's assuming they believe the #1 QB next year is a better prospect than JJ McCarthy or whoever ends up being the 4th QB this year and I'm not sure you'd get a consensus on that either way.

As to the first bolded part, yes the Vernon had a lot of similar rhetoric attached to him.  And to be fair I had high hopes for him too back then.  Clearly I was mistaken.  But I don't know if that's good enough reason to just not do stuff.  Once they made the Burns trade I watched a lot of video of him playing.  I'm not a coach or an expert by any means but I did like what I saw.  It gave me reason for optimism that when playing with Thibs/Dex one of those 3 guys should be able to consistently get to the QB on any given day.  You can't double all of them! 

im only giving it a 4 cause we havent seen it pay off yet. on paper its solid. but we are also paying a lottttttttttttt of money for him, and if he regresses as players tend to do when they come here, its gonna sting real bad.

but if he and kayvon can be the tandem they no doubt have the skills to be, with big dex in the middle...that could be horrifying for opposing qb's

I haven't voted because I cannot see the future.

I will say I think the price of the trade is actually fair to both sides in the context of other trades this year (Sneed, Allen) where older players/players with injury records basically got traded for a slight upgrade on the future compensatory pick they would have brought if they went as a FA. As a younger, healthy player Burns was worth a premium.

In the context of roster building it creates a possible strength on a team that arguably had no clear areas of strength and that is a fair start to any rebuild, but it is obviously insufficient in itself to compete.

That might translate as a 4 for the logic and execution but that is no guarantee of impact and production.

I'd like to see Leo come back at a reasonable $$ amount.

He had good chemistry with Dex and I think he can still bring the pressure.


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Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on March 23, 2024, 04:31:32 PMI'd like to see Leo come back at a reasonable $$ amount.

He had good chemistry with Dex and I think he can still bring the pressure.


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Didn't he sign a three year contract with Seattle?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on March 23, 2024, 04:38:52 PMDidn't he sign a three year contract with Seattle?

Damn! Don't know how I missed that. Thanks for the heads up!

PS. I wouldn't have spent THAT kind of $$$ on him.


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Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on March 23, 2024, 04:46:04 PMDamn! Don't know how I missed that. Thanks for the heads up!

PS. I wouldn't have spent THAT kind of $$$ on him.


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Not sure of guarantees, there, but his contract in Seattle is almost the same total over 3 years the Giants signed him for 3 years ago.