Investing and finance thread

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Today's jobs report showed job creation beat expectation and unemployment held a a good 3.6% which sort of quells concerns of a recession.

So what does the market do?   DROP   

This is why I don't trade options, why the market moves the way it does is a mystery to me

I have been urged repeatedly by friends to play the options market, but like you...I resist the temptation

One thing I've noticed over the years watching the market, is that the end of the week the market typically goes down. I attribute that (rightly or wrongly) to options being called. So even if the economic factors are going up, the market is going down as speculators are paying off or selling their options. It throws a monkey wrench into trying to predict the market. Damn those day traders   

[DaveBrown74]

I have been urged repeatedly by friends to play the options market, but like you...I resist the temptation

One thing I've noticed over the years watching the market, is that the end of the week the market typically goes down. I attribute that (rightly or wrongly) to options being called. So even if the economic factors are going up, the market is going down as speculators are paying off or selling their options. It throws a monkey wrench into trying to predict the market. Damn those day traders   

Although on the other hand, if there is a pattern where the market tends to typically go down at the end of the week, wouldn't that present an advantage to anyone looking to buy a stock or group of stocks who is trying to time which day to do it?

[todge]

There

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I can finally afford to buy a few shares of Amazon...LOL

Last Friday it was $2,447 a share - now $125.00 or so

[MightyGiants]

I can finally afford to buy a few shares of Amazon...LOL

Last Friday it was $2,447 a share - now $125.00 or so

One thing about Amazon, it's more than an online store.  Their Amazon Web Services (cloud computing) is a big part of their company.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

One thing about Amazon, it's more than an online store.  Their Amazon Web Services (cloud computing) is a big part of their company.

Not to mention - a rocket company and the engines to send rockets to space

From arstechnica:

"Amazon on Tuesday announced the largest commercial launch deal ever. The company has finalized agreements with three different rocket companies for a total of 83 launches. The rockets will deploy a majority of Amazon's low-Earth-orbit constellation of broadband satellites.

With this deal, Amazon has acquired an extraordinary amount of medium- and heavy-lift launch capacity over the next five years, procuring launches from every major Western provider except for its direct satellite competitor, SpaceX. Aside from SpaceX, this purchase represents the vast majority of any "spare" launch capacity for larger rockets in the United States or Europe over the next half-decade..." https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/04/amazon-signs-blockbuster-launch-deal-for-its-satellite-megaconstellation/

[MightyGiants]

what stocks or sectors are you waiting on buying with these market downturns?

Microsoft (because I just keep hearing good things and I think their Teams could push Zoom)

Costco-  I always like their stock but it was too expensive


What do people think?

[DaveBrown74]

what stocks or sectors are you waiting on buying with these market downturns?

Microsoft (because I just keep hearing good things and I think their Teams could push Zoom)

Costco-  I always like their stock but it was too expensive


What do people think?

As an anecdotal follow-up, I am finding the percentage of meetings/calls I do that are Zoom is steadily declining. TEAMS is definitely the most common substitute. I see WebEx from time to time but mainly TEAMS (when it's not Zoom). 18 months ago it would have been basically all Zoom.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

what stocks or sectors are you waiting on buying with these market downturns?

As for me, I'm doing very little buying. I bought two stocks last Monday: Wolfspeed (WOLF) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - makers of the drug Jemperli - earlier this week after reading an article that every test subject with cancer had been healed with the drug https://www.sciencealert.com/every-single-patient-in-this-small-experimental-drug-trial-saw-their-cancer-disappear. It went up about 6% the following day so I sold it. I thought it would possibly be one of those skyrocketing 200% kind of deals. When I saw it climb, but not out of this world, I sold it. Must be the news didn't make headlines throughout the stockholder giants. I didn't sell my WOLF stock because it went up a couple percent the next day, but is now down after yesterday and today. I'm really skittish with the market right now. Thought I was on to something for a minute with GSK

Microsoft (because I just keep hearing good things and I think their Teams could push Zoom)

MSFT has slid about 25% since the beginning of the year. When the market finally bottoms out, it will be a good investment in my opinion. It's just that no one knows where the bottom is. Sucks!

Costco-  I always like their stock but it was too expensive

I don't follow retail stocks. I owned Amazon and Walmart a year ago, but finally bailed. Walmart is having a really rough time right now. It was already down for the year about 10%, but crashed like the Hindenburg in mid-May. Not sure what the story is there

I am clueless as to what sectors have promise. I only own about 10 different stocks and like to keep it that way. I've been up to 20 stocks in my portfolio, but find it easier to follow 10 or less. I'm personally high on Fisker and PlugPower, but they haven't made me rich by any means. I'm holding long term. I tend to be tech heavy and follow the EV sector closely as well as companies that make processors and the companies that make the materials and machinery to make processors. I believe they are the future. I prefer to invest in chip makers in the U.S. as opposed to China/Taiwan because I never know what Xi is going to do and he can really rock the ship in a hurry. So I have some AMD and Nvidia stock. I also am holding onto PureStorage, Inc (PSTG) as they are a company that can store tons of electricity for entire cities to avoid blackouts. A lot of units have been sold in Texas recently

I bounce into petroleum companies every once in awhile. I like Marathon Oil, but haven't bought it since last year and hold no oil stocks. I still believe in my heart that EV is going to be the future and hopefully the stock in those companies takes off like Tesla. But after this year, I wouldn't hold my breath 

[MightyGiants]

I am considering hitting the electric car market hard via ETFs.  The two I am looking at are

KARS (which focuses on the production of vehicles)

BATT (focuses on the lithium and batteries)

I think this spike in gas prices is the push needed to really make electric cars the future.  The infrastructure bill has money for charging stations and I see more and more of a push in this direction.   

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I am considering hitting the electric car market hard via ETFs.  The two I am looking at are

KARS (which focuses on the production of vehicles)

BATT (focuses on the lithium and batteries)

I think this spike in gas prices is the push needed to really make electric cars the future.  The infrastructure bill has money for charging stations and I see more and more of a push in this direction. 

ETFs are definitely an option in this crazy market - you don't get the wild swings you get with managing your own portfolio of individual stocks. But it's a little like watching grass grow...which isn't all that bad of an idea

I think the immediate future is all about energy switching to electric and not just in cars and trucks

When I was still working as an actual company employee, I had to visit Plug Power several times on business and was given a grand tour of the original plant in Latham (next to the Albany, NY airport). I was amazed. That was quite a few years ago and they were developing a unit (refrigerator size, but half as tall) that was outside of the house and it provided all the electricity needed to run everything and it's fuel source was water. Of course, the unit turned tap water into liquid hydrogen which then ran a motor to produce electricity. I was blown away and wanted one for my house

Ten years later they are producing huge tanks of liquid hydrogen to primarily run trucks, but also working on getting cars going on hydrogen (like the Toyota Mirai). Since I last visited the plant the company has built new factories (a huge one in Rochester) and in Europe. They are also developing stations to pump hydrogen into trucks as they cross the country. They have huge contracts with Amazon and Walmart, two companies that are building fleets of vans and trucks that run on hydrogen. There are huge tanks outside of Amazon and Walmart distribution centers that hold liquid hydrogen produced by Plug Power. It's a great story with a great future

The downside: They post serious losses every single year so the stock doesn't skyrocket like Tesla and the environmentalists are far more focused on EV's, lithium batteries, etc., rather than the extremely environmentally friendly hydrogen which has zero emissions and runs like gasoline powered engines. Thankfully, they have a lot of investors with deep pockets as well as government funded programs to keep the dream alive until it becomes profitable

Anyway - ten years from now Plug Power will be the hero of environmentalists everywhere. The source (water) for the fuel is unlimited and the exhaust recycles the water right back into the ecosystem. There are no huge environmental disastrous pits digging for the limited source of lithium or other materials needed for batteries. The problem is that it just takes so long to get all the infrastructure in place for it to be a viable alternative and electric vehicles have a huge jump start and everyone is on the EV bandwagon. Both alternatives to fossil fuels are great, but IMHO, hydrogen trumps battery powered EVs hands down. Unfortunately, I might not live long enough to see the world running on hydrogen 

https://www.plugpower.com/

[MightyGiants]

ETFs are definitely an option in this crazy market - you don't get the wild swings you get with managing your own portfolio of individual stocks. But it's a little like watching grass grow...which isn't all that bad of an idea

I think the immediate future is all about energy switching to electric and not just in cars and trucks

When I was still working as an actual company employee, I had to visit Plug Power several times on business and was given a grand tour of the original plant in Latham (next to the Albany, NY airport). I was amazed. That was quite a few years ago and they were developing a unit (refrigerator size, but half as tall) that was outside of the house and it provided all the electricity needed to run everything and it's fuel source was water. Of course, the unit turned tap water into liquid hydrogen which then ran a motor to produce electricity. I was blown away and wanted one for my house

Ten years later they are producing huge tanks of liquid hydrogen to primarily run trucks, but also working on getting cars going on hydrogen (like the Toyota Mirai). Since I last visited the plant the company has built new factories (a huge one in Rochester) and in Europe. They are also developing stations to pump hydrogen into trucks as they cross the country. They have huge contracts with Amazon and Walmart, two companies that are building fleets of vans and trucks that run on hydrogen. There are huge tanks outside of Amazon and Walmart distribution centers that hold liquid hydrogen produced by Plug Power. It's a great story with a great future

The downside: They post serious losses every single year so the stock doesn't skyrocket like Tesla and the environmentalists are far more focused on EV's, lithium batteries, etc., rather than the extremely environmentally friendly hydrogen which has zero emissions and runs like gasoline powered engines. Thankfully, they have a lot of investors with deep pockets as well as government funded programs to keep the dream alive until it becomes profitable

Anyway - ten years from now Plug Power will be the hero of environmentalists everywhere. The source (water) for the fuel is unlimited and the exhaust recycles the water right back into the ecosystem. There are no huge environmental disastrous pits digging for the limited source of lithium or other materials needed for batteries. The problem is that it just takes so long to get all the infrastructure in place for it to be a viable alternative and electric vehicles have a huge jump start and everyone is on the EV bandwagon. Both alternatives to fossil fuels are great, but IMHO, hydrogen trumps battery powered EVs hands down. Unfortunately, I might not live long enough to see the world running on hydrogen 

https://www.plugpower.com/

For what it's worth, hydrogen should be considered in the same way one views batteries.  It takes energy to create hydrogen (by splitting water, H2O, into hydrogen and Oxygen molecules).  As Ric pointed out, hydrogen is an alternative to batteries and doesn't require the lithium that is in short supply. 

I think what is holding back hydrogen is the lack of infrastructure.   Electric infrastructure is being built out and you can see charging stations at various locations.  Hydrogen is much less so.

I think the advantage of hydrogen is that one can refuel hydrogen quicker than one can recharge a lithium battery vehicle.

[DaveBrown74]

Ugliness in the markets the past couple days. Crytpo is receiving a real comeuppance. No doubt this sector has had corrections that have been worse than this before, but the industry has grown a lot since the last one and a lot of people got very invested during the pandemic.

It's hard to see stocks having a sustainable rally (beyond a week or two) until we start to see inflation beginning to noticeably tick down.

[MightyGiants]

Ugliness in the markets the past couple days. Crytpo is receiving a real comeuppance. No doubt this sector has had corrections that have been worse than this before, but the industry has grown a lot since the last one and a lot of people got very invested during the pandemic.

It's hard to see stocks having a sustainable rally (beyond a week or two) until we start to see inflation beginning to noticeably tick down.

I listen to a show this weekend.  The issue with Bitcoin was it use to not be corollated with the markets.  In other words, it didn't rise and fall along with the stock market.  Now that institutional buyers and funds are buying bitcoin like they would an emerging market stock, crypto pretty much rises and falls in line with the market as the big players are treating bitcoin like another market sector rather than a separate asset class

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I made a vow to myself last summer to never invest in crypto or drug companies. I've broken that vow now and then with drug companies, but not crypto. Crypto scares the crap out of me