Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Philosophers on May 08, 2024, 04:07:54 PMReplace a top 10 performance at toughest and most important NFL position with a rookie likely to do poorly?  Why not just draft one and sit him for a year?

Some around here have argued he was top-10 in 2022, largely based on his QBR that season (he was 6th and largely so due to running contribution). But to me, 2022 would not be good enough in 2024 because it would be a "top-10" season by efficiency. Again, my point was that it hinges somewhat on the "top-10" season we're talking about. If 2024 is like 2022, that "top-10" performance doesn't do the trick.

Quote from: Philosophers on May 08, 2024, 10:33:06 AMI believe if DJ is top 10 but Giants are sub 0.500 he'll return in 2025.

I feel exactly the opposite because if they're picking higher via a bad record, a top QB is more likely to be within reach. Though, I'm viewing this top-10 season as being the result of efficiency (akin to 2022) rather than volume--I think the latter would make the decision to replace him harder, though not insurmountable depending on circumstances (that likely can't be anticipated at this time).

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 08, 2024, 10:28:11 AMYou are dealing with small numbers at 10 yards so even 0.1 is significant.  I hope you appreciate that while Egram's 10 yard split wasn't "bad" by RAS standards, what it is is slower than what one would expect from a 4.42 40 and shows Engram's acceleration wasn't that good, which is why he hasn't played like one would expect a TE with a 4.42 40 to play

.1 and .01 are different things entirely--the former being the difference between a 4.4 and a 4.5 (significant), and the latter being the difference between a 4.40 and 4.41 (negligible). We're dealing with the latter in your position that Engram's 10-yard split isn't actually impressive because it would only be "4th ranked TE 10-yard split" this combine, despite a discrete ranking not really being representative of his athleticism as I showed above. Engram's 10-yard split was faster than Wan'Dale's and he's well-regarded for his short-area quickness. Your conclusion about Engram may well-indeed be correct, but it's not supported by the 10-yard split metric and I think its pretty clear.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 08, 2024, 10:17:17 AMHave you considered that Engram's 4.42 40 time was a record at the time he ran it, yet his 1.56 split would put him 4th in just this year's combine with just a handful of TEs and none of them coming close to Engram's 4.42?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-r-niHtaYTpDE3ydHJXyV4QfWQ2HZWnRXUVbaMTK3C0/edit#gid=1749729294

Yes, I guess it would place him 4th... by .01 seconds:



Update his RAS for the 2024 season, and its still a very strong 10-yard split:



I don't know why you're contorting yourself to state that Engram secretly wasn't really fast in short-space based on a 10-yard split when it's pretty clear that at least that metric doesn't support your conclusion. He's gotten open plenty in Jacksonville.

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on May 08, 2024, 10:08:45 AMThough it wasn't broadcast in the headlines of news stories, the Giants' ST squad was poor the last few seasons. Fans knew it, but it was a side-note in the news. Apparently, judging by the changes, Schoen decided to fix it...knock on wood

Some of the changes I've noticed:

- Fired STC Thomas McGaughey and hired new STC Michael Ghobrial

- Resigned Gunner Olszewski (and true to his name, is a "gunner") who was our best gunner on STs since the retirement of David Tyree. Olszewski is also our punt returner, but that could change after the addition of WR/RB Tracy in the draft

- Signed Miles Boykin, one of the best gunners in the NFL...but as you know, we need two gunners, one on each side of the field

- Signed former Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie, on a cheap 1-yr contract. Should promote competition at the punt return spot between him and Olszewski (and probably Tracy)

- Resigned Carter Coughlin, our best STs player who led the team with nine tackles last season and has earned a reputation as a hard hitter https://www.giants.com/video/carter-coughlin-s-hit-stick-tackle-ends-patriot-kick-return-giants-vs-patriots-h

- Drafted shifty Tyrone Tracy as a RB, but is targeted to also be a returner who could be especially effective under the new kickoff rules

- Bryce Ford-Wheaton has spent the year and off-season practicing to make the STs squad as a "jammer" and possibly a "gunner"...he is apparently taking STs very seriously

- Drafted Darius Muasau who is known to be a special teams ace and an "unrelenting" attacker. He also played for our new STC Ghobrial. He is said to be an extremely hard hitter and a "film rat"

- hopefully, Graham Gano is back and in top shape as our place kicker

- Jamie Gillan "the Scottish Hammer" made impressive improvement last season and should be in even better shape this coming season

I'm sure there are other behind the scenes changes being made, but it certainly appears that Schoen and Daboll have not ignored the problem of the "Third Team", for which we have sucked, and have taken it very seriously to upgrade across the board. I suspect the biggest change is probably putting in a whole new system designed by our new STC Ghobrial

 

Thanks Jolly. But just would note that Bryce Ford-Wheaton tore his ACL in the 2023 preseason back in August, so he's been recovering. I haven't read anything about him getting back on the field yet.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 08, 2024, 09:30:55 AMI am going to add one thing.  I suspect we should also be looking at 10-yard splits as they will reflect a receiver's suddenness/acceleration, which is as important if not more important than their long speed. 

Take Evan Engram.  He had an impressive 40 time, but he wasn't that sudden and it took him time to reach top speed.  As a result, the defense didn't really struggle to cover him as much as his 40 times would suggest.

Engram's 10-yard split was strong:


That 10-yard split is within tenths of a second of Odunze and Nabers. Engram's numbers (PFF and counting stats) have been much better since he transitioned to Jacksonville and had Trevor Lawrence throwing him the ball.

Quote from: Stringer Bell on May 07, 2024, 02:36:07 PMThat's fair. But they gave him a contact extension. Yes, there's an out to give them flexibility, but they would not have signed him if they didn't think they could win with him. And signing a guy who has started 5 games in the last 3 seasons doesn't change things, IMO.

And yes, the rumors of trading up for Maye are telling. But what does it really say? That they really liked Maye? Yes. But not necessarily that they don't like DJ. Had that been the case, then they would have drafted JJ at 6 or tried to trade down for him, Penix or Nix if they were really low on DJ. I don't think we can call really liking a guy (Maye) an indictment of DJ when they didn't feel the need to draft any of the other 3 first round QBs available.

And I don't consider Daboll bitching a sign of anything. That's his m.o. LOL

Fair enough. I just think there's plenty of smoke to the fire that Schoen and Co. aren't all-that-high on DJ. I think they were hoping he had a 2023 campaign that got them there. But that obviously didn't happen. And if they were picking in the top-3 this past season, the heir apparent would already be on the roster. Based on that, I can't see the rest of their draft decision-making as an endorsement of DJ, but a criticism of the rest of the roster and the desperate need to find difference-makers for the future QB. I do agree though that I don't see Lock as much competition (though I've not looked very closely at the subject), but rather a backup with starting experience.

Quote from: Stringer Bell on May 07, 2024, 02:12:30 PMIt's clear that Daboll / Schoen have a much higher opinion of DJ's abilities than the majority of the fan base. So it's not likely that Lock will be a legit threat to win the job early.

I'm curious how you can say this with authority when we have numerous instances of Daboll showing and voicing frustration with Jones (sideline and post-game comments, respectively), Schoen built an out into Jones's contract after 2 years, and Schoen literally just tried to trade up for Maye? I'd even somewhat agree with your second statement, but it's difficult for me to get on board with your conclusions given that I think the inputs are at odds with what has transpired over last season and this past draft cycle.

Did he charge his usual appearance fee or give them a discount?     

It's a popular topic to get clicks and attention. I think the financial aspect of the injury guarantee in Jones's contract is going to (quietly) be a very important factor in how this shakes out.

2022 stats aren't good enough (they're really not great, but that's beside the point). The Giants paid him after that season with the hope that he would be better going forward and evolve. That didn't happen. Instead, we saw a complete regression. I've stated in other threads that I think the only situation that makes them rethink Jones is an MVP-caliber season. And that doesn't guarantee they retain him, I think they just have a harder conversation about it.

To those who say another playoff win (or some variation short of Superbowl victory) would change the Giants mind on Jones: the 49ers went to a Superbowl (2019) and conference championship (2021) with Jimmy Garropollo. They still decided to move on from him (and paid an insane premium to miss on Trey Lance to do so). There's plenty of tape on Jones. Even if some miracle happens and the Giants go on a deep playoff run, it guarantees nothing in my mind.

Quote from: Trench on May 03, 2024, 11:35:41 PMSo McKinney and Saquon are only worth a single 4th round pick?....wow

You're forgetting the offsetting that occurs when the Giants signed players. Runyon effectively cancelled out Saquon with a similar AAV.

I think the Jones deal was the confluence of a number of circumstances, not simply the will of John Mara. The Giants had won a playoff game--which also meant they were picking at the back half and replacing the QB through the draft was significantly tougher--and Mara assuredly, by all accounts, wants Jones to be the guy. I don't think Schoen was compelled to do the deal, but there were a lot of forces at work pulling them in that direction, including Mara's obvious and publicly-stated position on the matter (a stupid thing to announce to the media, but I digress).

Mara ostensibly approved Schoen offering to trade up for Drake Maye, so I don't think he is carte blanche refusing to move on from Jones. The real problem is that he makes his feelings clear to the media (e.g., comments that the Giants had "done everything" to screw up Daniel Jones) and that undoubtedly affects how Schoen does his job. That's poor ownership habits from John Mara. Fine to feel that way, but to put that external pressure on a GM is not effective leadership.

No. At this point, the Giants are hoping that they can salvage Neal, or Eleumenor gives them capable RT play. I am hesitant to keep throwing high picks at the OL when this team is still talent-deficient in numerous other areas. While Wan'Dale and Hyatt are nice players, at this point they can't be counted on to be anything more than complementary. I see Nabers as a difference maker. Maybe not this season, but in 2025 and beyond.

I'm pretty pro-analytics, but this guy is talking in a vacuum about historical draft value without any reference to what resources were available in this particular draft. Would it have been great if a top-tier, flawless edge was available at 6? Hell yeah! But no defensive player went until 15 for a reason. Understandably, this may be difficult to encapsulate in statistics... but then it's your job to call out the potential flaws and drawbacks from your approach, not double-down with criticism.