Big Blue Huddle

I know there are comparisons to Daniel Jones and Alex Smith that has soured many on McCarthy, but consider these comments by The Athletic's Dane Brugler


Why does the scouting community seem higher on McCarthy than the general public?

McCarthy has plenty of the tools to work with. He wasn't asked to be a consistent downfield passer in that offense. That doesn't mean he can't do it. So there's a lot of projection involved with McCarthy. I know fans get annoyed with win-loss record for quarterbacks, but teams care about it. In high school, McCarthy was 36-2 as a starter and won a state championship. In college, he was 27-1 as a starter and won a national championship. This is a guy who has won at every level.

Even though he wasn't asked to be that consistent downfield thrower, especially on early downs, he was really good on money downs — third and fourth downs — and he showed up in big situations. It doesn't matter what the situation is, he's got that competitive toughness. The coaching staff at Michigan called him "Iceman" because of the way he operated — those intangibles and the toughness. And he just turned 21, so he's a young player who has yet to play his best football.

He needs to put on weight. Scouts say he played around 200 pounds this year. The tools aren't big-time, but they're good enough in terms of arm strength, and he's a good athlete. But the intangible factor, I think when teams sit down with him in a room, coaches will really fall in love with the guy. I think he's mostly going to have second-round grades around the league, but a lot of quarterbacks with second-round grades end up going in the first just because they get that one-round bump.

https://x.com/dpbrugler/status/1716438637758341449?s=20


Hear Brugler's comments on other QBs if you subscribe

https://theathletic.com/5241708/2024/02/01/new-york-giants-nfl-draft-quarterback-jayden-daniels-dane-brugler/?source=user_shared_articleGiantsQBlandscape:DaneBruglerbreaksdownNFLDraft%E2%80%99stopprospects,fitinNewYork

There will be a QB that upsets the apple cart of the top thee. Could be McCarthy. Long way to go.

Hopefully not at #6.  That would REAK of Daniel Jones 2.0.  If they managed to trade down to late Round 1 and pick up a bunch of other picks along the way then fine.  But please, for the love of God, don't make the Daniel Jones mistake again when Daniel Jones is literally still on the team!

Quote from: Gmo11 on February 02, 2024, 10:14:13 AMHopefully not at #6.  That would REAK of Daniel Jones 2.0.  If they managed to trade down to late Round 1 and pick up a bunch of other picks along the way then fine.  But please, for the love of God, don't make the Daniel Jones mistake again when Daniel Jones is literally still on the team!

To me, the same logic that should have applied to Jones still applies here.  If you believe a prospect to be a franchise QB, you simply can't draft them too high.   If expectations are anything lower, you are just buying a lottery ticket hoping to get lucky.




ONE OTHER SCOUTING NOTE-   I have heard that with McCarthy, while he wasn't asked to carry his team, he was running an NFL-style offense, so the throws he made were NFL-type throws.

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 02, 2024, 10:21:25 AMTo me, the same logic that should have applied to Jones still applies here.  If you believe a prospect to be a franchise QB, you simply can't draft them too high.   If expectations are anything lower, you are just buying a lottery ticket hoping to get lucky.




ONE OTHER SCOUTING NOTE-   I have heard that with McCarthy, while he wasn't asked to carry his team, he was running an NFL-style offense, so the throws he made were NFL-type throws.

Agreed.  I think that's exactly what they'd be doing if they take JJ:  buying a lottery ticket and hoping to get lucky.  And if you're going to do that, I'd rather not do that in the top 10.  If they can collect a bunch of other picks to supplement the lottery ticket in case it fails then fine.  But we JUST saw what happens when you take a QB way too high simply because you fell in full bloom love after the senior bowl despite being mostly pedestrian in his college career. 

If they evaluate him at the same level of guys like Maye/Daniels then fine, I guess, but they'd be about the only people in the football watching world that does that.  And that would be a scary proposition for me because they haven't exactly been one of the best scouting organizations around.  When the Ravens evaluate a guy differently than everybody else I'm more inclined to trust their judgement.  There's nothing in recent history to suggest the Giants can properly scout much of anybody so if everybody else says late 1st/Early 2nd and the Giants say "#6 overall" I'd be terrified.  And after they just did the exact same thing with Jones/Gettleman it would be even more unsettling.

Quote from: Gmo11 on February 02, 2024, 11:12:58 AMAgreed.  I think that's exactly what they'd be doing if they take JJ:  buying a lottery ticket and hoping to get lucky.  And if you're going to do that, I'd rather not do that in the top 10.  If they can collect a bunch of other picks to supplement the lottery ticket in case it fails then fine.  But we JUST saw what happens when you take a QB way too high simply because you fell in full bloom love after the senior bowl despite being mostly pedestrian in his college career. 

If they evaluate him at the same level of guys like Maye/Daniels then fine, I guess, but they'd be about the only people in the football watching world that does that.  And that would be a scary proposition for me because they haven't exactly been one of the best scouting organizations around.  When the Ravens evaluate a guy differently than everybody else I'm more inclined to trust their judgement.  There's nothing in recent history to suggest the Giants can properly scout much of anybody so if everybody else says late 1st/Early 2nd and the Giants say "#6 overall" I'd be terrified.  And after they just did the exact same thing with Jones/Gettleman it would be even more unsettling.

You don't buy lottery tickets in round one.  If you don't believe a QB is a franchise QB, you wait to day two or later.

As for scouting a QB prospect, if Schoen and Daboll are incapable of that, we might as well resign ourselves to being a bad team for the next decade.   

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 02, 2024, 11:19:35 AMYou don't buy lottery tickets in round one.  If you don't believe a QB is a franchise QB, you wait to day two or later.

As for scouting a QB prospect, if Schoen and Daboll are incapable of that, we might as well resign ourselves to being a bad team for the next decade.   

I sorta feel like the Ravens did it with Lamar Jackson.  They traded up into the 1st round to get him but only when he fell into range where the price wasn't enormous.  If he fails and turns out he can't play QB after all, the loss is easier to deal with than if they had sent their entire draft away to get into the top 10 to take him.  I see this as a similar situation.  After the big 3 any other QB prospect has some good qualities and some bad ones and you just don't know which one of those is gonna be a bust and which one is going to be a stud or whatever. 

I certainly hope Daboll and Schoen can scout QBs but to this point the only evidence we have to support one direction or another was not showing Jones the door before last season which was not the best look for either of them.  No need to rehash the reasons why, and there were some extenuating circumstances but I just don't yet have the blind faith needed to simply trust them to take a 4th QB in the top 6.

If they want JJ...trade down and add picks if possible. BUT DO NOT take him at #6. He seems more than serviceable but is that enough? Is he DJ redux? 

Quote from: Gmo11 on February 02, 2024, 11:31:27 AMI sorta feel like the Ravens did it with Lamar Jackson.  They traded up into the 1st round to get him but only when he fell into range where the price wasn't enormous.  If he fails and turns out he can't play QB after all, the loss is easier to deal with than if they had sent their entire draft away to get into the top 10 to take him.  I see this as a similar situation.  After the big 3 any other QB prospect has some good qualities and some bad ones and you just don't know which one of those is gonna be a bust and which one is going to be a stud or whatever. 

I certainly hope Daboll and Schoen can scout QBs but to this point the only evidence we have to support one direction or another was not showing Jones the door before last season which was not the best look for either of them.  No need to rehash the reasons why, and there were some extenuating circumstances but I just don't yet have the blind faith needed to simply trust them to take a 4th QB in the top 6.

The Ravens were in a different situation.  The Ravens were a good team with a starting QB they had won a SB with.  Trading to get the last pick in round one to get the 5th year option made sense for that situation, as it gave them another year with Jackson under contract.  Had Jackson flamed out (he was hardly a slam dunk prospect) it wouldn't have hurt the Ravens that much.

In the Giants situation, they need a franchise QB.  Either they plan and act like they are not getting their franchise QB in this year's draft (doesn't preclude them from taking a day 2 or 3 flyer), or they believe there is a franchise QB, and in that case, you grab him with pick 6 and you don't fool around.

"Second-round grade" (as Brugler notes) taken at #6 overall... recipe for disaster for the kid and the franchise.

One thing we can count on is that McCarthy will be available at 6 while there is no need, thus no way that the Giants would take him that high. However, I do think they are giving serious thought to taking him in Round 2, or even late in Round 1 by trading up from pick 39. Of course, later is cheaper on the one hand, whereas on the other, earlier could mean the benefit of an optional 5th year.

I'm not near the point of predicting it but there are several reasons why I could see it happening including concerns about DJ's availability/ability this year, and next year's financials. it might be a case of thinking the sooner the better and a best situation for McCarthy. Of course, the need for a stud at the X- and studs for the Oline, so as to give whomever is at QB a better chance, not to mention needs elsewhere on D, do tug against the idea.

Cheers!

Here is an interesting article (pre-declaration) by insider and draft guru Tony Pauline


https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/j-j-mccarthy-scouting-report-nfl-draft-projection-why-michigan-qb-real-deal-question-marks

Quote from: Gmo11 on February 02, 2024, 10:14:13 AMHopefully not at #6.  That would REAK of Daniel Jones 2.0.  If they managed to trade down to late Round 1 and pick up a bunch of other picks along the way then fine.  But please, for the love of God, don't make the Daniel Jones mistake again when Daniel Jones is literally still on the team!

Gm: He's not even one of my top choices (for other reasons) but consider this:

McCarthy won in college, played really tough (if not the toughest) competition and didn't have truly great WR's.

The fist two items are the opposite of Jones (obviously). When you add those factors to what @MightyGiants said above, he and Jones are apples and oranges.  If the Giants like him at least as much as Jones, there is no reason NOT to draft him.  I wouldn't do it either at Pick 6 but I'm not the GM.

Bob

https://x.com/The33rdTeamFB/status/1753486141515600029?s=20