Big Blue Huddle

I know it's still very early and we don't know what the final roster will look like, so by no means are these final or conclusive forecasts, but we are now done with the most critical leg of free agency and also the draft. Any additions to the roster from this point on are likely to be more incremental/supplemental rather than highly impactful. We know who the coaches are. We also know our opponents as well as the venues.

Given all that, as of right now, how do you currently see this season playing out?

I like the direction. Feels like there continues to be a plan, but we simply have too many holes and are too thin. Free agency and the draft were good. An injury or two again and we will struggle. We have too far to go and still have not closed the gap in the NFC East. This team is improving and I'm optimistic about the long haul over the next couple of seasons.

I'd imagine this poll will be in the negative but as usual post-draft I'm enthused (though I've tempered it slightly and guessed 9-10 wins).

Key thing is actually having a competitive training camp. Last years was powder puff. Looked after the players and it got the xxxx kicked out of us in the initial joint scrimmage with Detroit as our level of intensity and preparedness was much lower than those of quality opponents getting ready for the season, not for a siesta. That turned out to be a harbinger of what happened v Dallas in the home opener...

If we do scrimmage with Detroit again,  we'll be able to gauge progress.  They will always be well prepared under Campbell and now they have a really good roster.  If we can compete with them, we'll be just fine. We see the same again, it could be another long ass season!

Injuries aside, it depends who is shown to have been correct. Two issues:

(A) Did we need a better QB than Jones? - If the "we need a new QB" people are correct, the Giants will continue to stink. If the "we need an elite weapon" people are correct, the Giants will make enough progress to get maybe nine wins. The schedule this year will be a bit easier and the offense will be able to either to keep the ball away from the opponent or attempt to outscore them (depending on which team we're playing).

(B) Is running back really a lot less important than it has been historically? - If the "yes" people are correct then the Giants have a good-enough answer to the absence of Saquon and we'll be ok because the offensive line has clearly been upgraded.  If the "no" people are correct, we will miss Saquon and teams won't have to game-plan to stop him, leaving them free to game-plan to stop either the upgraded receiving corps or spy Jones and keep him from running the ball.

Bob

PS. Defense will be about the same as last year, but don't forget we must have (a) someone step up as a viable replacement for Leonard Williams (IMO he was an unsung hero on defense and a good running partner for Dexter); and (b) we need a young veteran to become a "star" (maybe number five, maybe Burns, maybe Okereke) plus no 2nd-year player fall into a sophomore-year slump.  That may seem to be a lot to hope for, but IMO it's not only do-able.

I went poor because until we see it we just don't know.

I think there are enough pieces (with a likely veteran pick up post Monday) to field an average D and Bowen is competent enough to do that. It might be Pat Graham boring but I am OK if it is functional.

On O so much depends on Bricillo improving players individually and as a cohesive unit. If he can then I think we have enough playmakers post draft for Jones/Lock to get us into the 7-9 win range. Can at least one and ideally two of Neal, Ezeudu, JMS improve enough for the line to be league average? Too soon to know.

Looking at the teams they play this season, I picked mediocre, and that was being generous. Of course that is now and then will be then. They play the AFC North where all the teams have good QBs except Pittsburgh, but they have a good coach who overcomes other things and finds a way to always keep his team competitive. In their own division, they, unless Philly continues on their free form collapse from the end of last season, they will have a rough time. And Washington, now with a new QB and coach, won't be the easy two wins they have been the past few years. In the NFC South, only Carolina is a sure win. The other teams will be a struggle. I think they also play Minnesota, Seattle and the Colts. All could be wins. Do the math now and what do you come up with 5-7 wins tops. If teams lose key players everything changes, of course. But you asked now.

It's hard to envision a successful season next year with an injury prone Jones at the helm. I think we're slightly better defensively now than at the end of last year but even though we improved the offensive line losing Barkley really hurts. I don't think teams are going to lose sleep at the thought of stopping our run game. I see 6-7 wins.

Quote from: Bob In PA on April 28, 2024, 07:50:13 AMPS. Defense will be about the same as last year, but don't forget we must have (a) someone step up as a viable replacement for Leonard Williams (IMO he was an unsung hero on defense and a good running partner for Dexter); and (b) we need a young veteran to become a "star" (maybe number five, maybe Burns, maybe Okereke) plus no 2nd-year player fall into a sophomore-year slump.  That may seem to be a lot to hope for, but IMO it's not only do-able.

We have a new defensive coordinator who could be either a stud or a bum.

Quote from: Bob In PA on April 28, 2024, 07:50:13 AMInjuries aside, it depends who is shown to have been correct. Two issues:

(A) Did we need a better QB than Jones? - If the "we need a new QB" people are correct, the Giants will continue to stink. If the "we need an elite weapon" people are correct, the Giants will make enough progress to get maybe nine wins. The schedule this year will be a bit easier and the offense will be able to either to keep the ball away from the opponent or attempt to outscore them (depending on which team we're playing).

(B) Is running back really a lot less important than it has been historically? - If the "yes" people are correct then the Giants have a good-enough answer to the absence of Saquon and we'll be ok because the offensive line has clearly been upgraded.  If the "no" people are correct, we will miss Saquon and teams won't have to game-plan to stop him, leaving them free to game-plan to stop either the upgraded receiving corps or spy Jones and keep him from running the ball.

Bob

PS. Defense will be about the same as last year, but don't forget we must have (a) someone step up as a viable replacement for Leonard Williams (IMO he was an unsung hero on defense and a good running partner for Dexter); and (b) we need a young veteran to become a "star" (maybe number five, maybe Burns, maybe Okereke) plus no 2nd-year player fall into a sophomore-year slump.  That may seem to be a lot to hope for, but IMO it's not only do-able.

To point B, there are also those who feel that Saquan has more reputation than production last season.  To those people, losing Barkley was not an issue.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 28, 2024, 09:30:42 AMTo point B, there are also those who feel that Saquan has more reputation than production last season.  To those people, losing Barkley was not an issue.

I agree with that, but I also think he was still the focal point of defenses. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 28, 2024, 09:30:42 AMTo point B, there are also those who feel that Saquan has more reputation than production last season.  To those people, losing Barkley was not an issue.

IMHO we threw big money in free agency at the offensive line a year too late. I suspect Barkley would have had a monster year this year. Sadly it is what it is.

Quote from: TONKA56 on April 28, 2024, 09:34:13 AMI agree with that, but I also think he was still the focal point of defenses. 

As a DC, why would I focus on an RB with one 100-yard plus rushing game?  Even that game was more volume than production, as he only averaged 3.6 yards a carry.

Maye initially dropped my temperature to frigid levels. I see a budding Allen/Herbert when I watch his tape. McCarthy proved to be smoke. Right or wrong, Giants felt Pats asking price was just too big.  :boooo:

I was peeved to say the least but as reality set in , I took a hard look at what we have now post draft both players and the ball coaches.


What exactly are we left with at QB?  I try to look at common denominators between good play and bad play as much as possible to make a determination. Let's start at the beginning. Jones rookie year threw 24 TDs in just 12 games with pedestrian WRs. Shurmur was an above average offensive guy (who stunk as a HC) but route concepts had clear site lines and attacked multiple levels of the defense. Next couple years after, he had a hideous OC with that Garrett guy who only knew how to run hitches and curls all day. Basically all 5 years this kid not once had a receiver that could sniff a pro-bowl. The other common denominator was the offensive line was coached by a whos who of who not to hire as coaches. The only thing he had which was average or a smidge above was offensive coaching for a couple years. Most everything else is below to bottom barrell including numerous offensive lineman that were really
really just stinka-potumus at pass blocking.

I actually don't blame anyone of my blue feathered friends who has given up on him.  There are reasons why it could be argued the other way. However, I have also seen QBs when the cast around them improve be it coaches or players their performance substantially improves too. I want to have a glimmer of hope this upcoming season.  :ok:

So I'm kinda going from cup half empty with a crack at the bottom leaking to a cup half full  perspective.


This just might be the first darn time Daniel will have:

* A true what we believe to be potentially elite WR1
* An offensive line coach that has what seems to be excellent credentials (top 10-12 finishes with an average line with two different squads)
* An offensive line with numerous players that project well in pass blocking. AT, Runyons metrics in pass pro are excellent. Eluemunor as both an RG or RT projects at least as average. JMS he was supposed to be the top OC in the 2023 draft. Then we will see what Bracillo can come up with for the final spot.

I choose to be disappointed yes but also cautiously optimistic that we could see something positive maybe even significantly better with a WR1 and an OL that actually pass blocks.


On Defense Bowen to me is the total unknown. Vrabel is a defensive coach, so was it Vrabel or was it Bowen?

Ghobriel also kind of an unknown.

I'm going 5-6 wins if Bowen bombs or up to 10 if Bowen is the real deal.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 28, 2024, 09:42:47 AMAs a DC, why would I focus on an RB with one 100-yard plus rushing game?  Even that game was more volume than production, as he only averaged 3.6 yards a carry.

Because he's still the most respected offensive weapon.

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on April 28, 2024, 09:44:05 AMMaye initially dropped my temperature to frigid levels. I see a budding Allen/Herbert when I watch his tape. McCarthy proved to be smoke. Right or wrong, Giants felt Pats asking price was just too big.  :boooo:

I was peeved to say the least but as reality set in , I took a hard look at what we have now post draft both players and the ball coaches.


What exactly are we left with at QB?  I try to look at common denominators between good play and bad play as much as possible to make a determination. Let's start at the beginning. Jones rookie year threw 24 TDs in just 12 games with pedestrian WRs. Shurmur was an above average offensive guy (who stunk as a HC) but route concepts had clear site lines and attacked multiple levels of the defense. Next couple years after, he had a hideous OC with that Garrett guy who only knew how to run hitches and curls all day. Basically all 5 years this kid not once had a receiver that could sniff a pro-bowl. The other common denominator was the offensive line was coached by a whos who of who not to hire as coaches. The only thing he had which was average or a smidge above was offensive coaching for a couple years. Most everything else is below to bottom barrell including numerous offensive lineman that were really
really just stinka-potumus at pass blocking.

I actually don't blame anyone of my blue feathered friends who has given up on him.  There are reasons why it could be argued the other way. However, I have also seen QBs when the cast around them improve be it coaches or players their performance substantially improves too. I want to have a glimmer of hope this upcoming season.  :ok:

So I'm kinda going from cup half empty with a crack at the bottom leaking to a cup half full  perspective.


This just might be the first darn time Daniel will have:

* A true what we believe to be potentially elite WR1
* An offensive line coach that has what seems to be excellent credentials (top 10-12 finishes with an average line with two different squads)
* An offensive line with numerous players that project well in pass blocking. AT, Runyons metrics in pass pro are excellent. Eluemunor as both an RG or RT projects at least as average. JMS he was supposed to be the top OC in the 2023 draft. Then we will see what Bracillo can come up with for the final spot.

I choose to be disappointed yes but also cautiously optimistic that we could see something positive maybe even significantly better with a WR1 and an OL that actually pass blocks.

Good post. You have to assess the schedule. As of today how many teams on that schedule will the Giants be favored?

Quote from: katkavage on April 28, 2024, 09:49:12 AMGood post. You have to assess the schedule. As of today how many teams on that schedule will the Giants be favored?

5-6 wins if Bowen bombs, up to 10 if he is legit as schedule is a bit easier this year.

I like schoen and Daboll but after 3 drafts we should see a plan, we should see a team forming and I don't see that yet. Plus with the hole at Qb and other spots it's hard to understand the vision but that has been the case for 10 years.

I said 7 or 8.  For me it's all about whether the offense will be significantly improved or not. 

The defense will be improved if the offense is. 

I have been posting in BBH, and before it on BBWC, for a very long time and have learned that no matter the circumstances a good fan roots, not hoots, toots, or boots. Should you wonder why, you are either a newbie, or you haven't been paying attention. In any case, we all should know that the purpose of the guessing games are to?  <:-P

Cheers!

IMO it will boil down to 3 things:

1) the play of the O-Line.  In the unlikely (IMO - the triumph of experience over hope) event they improve to average, eg, cut the sacks down by half,

2) the defense's ability to stop the run, something they were horrific at last year, and

3) Daboll running a real pre-season rather than last year's cheerleader camp,

then I could see them at the very good level.  But if those things do not materialize the best they can hope for is mediocre, with a good chance at poor.

As an aside, I noticed something in researching last year's O-line play and just how bad it was, DJ was sacked 30 times in 6 games.  The other QBs were stacked 54 times in 11 games.  So the sack rates, 5 per game, were pretty much the same, calling into question the narrative that DJs sacks were his own fault - unless you want to argue that the others shared his fault.  But hey, "eye test".  Yay?

I see one stud in Nabers.

I hope Nubin either starts at a 75th percentile level.

Phillips is 50-50 for me as to being a better than average starter.

Rest of draft picks are under 50-50 chance of being in 50th percentile or better at their position.

FA signings plus new OL coach improve OL to be average (hoping).

Defense is improved by talent acquisition and Bowen's schemes.

DJ posts top 15 performance.

Injuries derail us like they do 99% of the seasons over past decade.  We continue to lack good player depth to offset it.

Dabs runs another soft preseason and we are ill-prepared for upcoming season again.

We win 5 maybe 6 games.

I'm cautiously optimistic that we can win 7–8 games, but instead of fretting whether we're a good team or not, I'm going to be more interested in watching the growth of last year's rookies (JMS, Hyatt, Gray, Hawkins III), and watching closely to see if bringing in Bricillo and a couple of veterans on the o-line will improve things (hopefully, a lot)...our new defensive scheme with a new coach...and of course, the newbies getting their first taste of NFL play and how they play, especially Nabers

I like that Schoen seems to have settled into building the team stick-by-stick. I think the worst thing that happened was a great first season with a low-talented team, that might have caused Schoen to think we're "almost there" and only required some tweaking. Season two was an in-yer-face reality check, an old-fashioned, "fist to the nose" wake-up call...especially out of the gate where the Cowboys utterly humiliated us because we didn't take offseason workouts seriously enough and came completely unprepared in game one. Stings just to talk about it  :hurt:  :crazy:

So three things:

1) Schoen is forgetting about "win now", and building a foundation for the future instead of thinking we could make it to the playoffs with a few tweaks - that's a positive IMO

2) Daboll will NOT let this team have an easy offseason workout this summer and will come to game one ready to actually play like NFL players. I believe no one was more humiliated than Dabes in that Cowboy game

3) the addition of a stud ER across from Thibs will be exciting to watch and could have more of an impact on the defense than anything else

So I've got lower expectations, yet excited to see growth in players and overall play this season. If we only win 4 or 5 games, but they are close and we played well, I will be satisfied because I know we're still in building mode. We're not the Chiefs yet

The Giants are kinda stuck in neutral. They need this draft and next to change the paradigm. Plus, they have a lame duck qb in Jones..who can't be counted on.

I'm expecting much of the same again..injuries. OL issues..lack of consistent play on offense..etc.

But I like this draft a lot and they
should be competitive, if unspectacular

Elephant in the room (the qb), however,  makes it another tough go. Maybe this year we won't lead the league in injuries-one can hope.

I see a ton of negativity here. Giants have this uncanny tendency to do really well when the expectations are low. A lot has to fall right but I am not going into next season without at least some hope either.

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on April 28, 2024, 02:50:28 PMI see a ton of negativity here. Giants have this uncanny tendency to do really well when the expectations are low. A lot has to fall right but I am not going into next season without at least some hope either.

I don't think people are being negative, but rather being tentative with their expectations. We knew that the entire team had to be rebuilt when Schoen was hired and that it would be a 3-year process, but we got a little ahead of ourselves with a stellar first season with Daboll at the helm. Then reality slapped us across the face and that's where we are now. I think the general tone is positive, but we're trying not to get ahead of ourselves. You can never question the passion Giants' fans have for this team, but no matter how much they love the team, they aren't blind to reality

Progress for me would be a functional offense.  Last season was embarrassing. I thought the o line was fixed- nope. If Runyan and Elumenor played as advertised,AT stays healthy,  and JMS improves,good thingscan happen. Nabers should be the go to receiver to make things exciting.
  On D,I'm excited about the edge rushers, but concerned about D line depth to stop the run

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on April 28, 2024, 02:50:28 PMI see a ton of negativity here. Giants have this uncanny tendency to do really well when the expectations are low. A lot has to fall right but I am not going into next season without at least some hope either.

After the last 10 or eleven years we are like a QB who has taken too many sacks.  Punch drunk and a little skittery.

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on April 28, 2024, 02:50:28 PMI see a ton of negativity here. Giants have this uncanny tendency to do really well when the expectations are low. A lot has to fall right but I am not going into next season without at least some hope either.

In 2022 things went very right for them. But the schedule helped. They will have to go a lot "righter" with the teams they face in 2024.

Quote from: katkavage on April 28, 2024, 04:56:11 PMIn 2022 things went very right for them. But the schedule helped. They will have to go a lot "righter" with the teams they face in 2024.

True. In the year that literally everything clicked and went their way, they went 9-7-1 and got absolutely destroyed in the second round.

Looking at the 2024 Giants Opponents. I picked 9-10 wins. Certainly not as difficult as 2023. Who knows really. The OL can't be as bad as last year, can it? HOPE NOT! Hinges on if DJ can run at all with that ACL repair. If not, he is gonna have to learn to throw the ball from and trust his pocket. Can he? I have no idea. Hopefully the WR we just drafted turns out to be as good as advertised. Dabol and company sure do have their work cut out for them. GO GIANTS!

2024 Giants Opponents
Baltimore Ravens @ MetlifeStadium
Cincinnati Bengals @ MetlifeStadium
Dallas Cowboys @ MetlifeStadium
Indianapolis Colts @ MetlifeStadium
Minnesota Vikings @ MetlifeStadium
New Orleans Saints @ MetlifeStadium
at Atlanta Falcons
at Carolina Panthers
at Cleveland Browns
at Dallas Cowboys
at Philadelphia Eagles
at Pittsburgh Steelers
at Seattle Seahawks
at Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles @ MetlifeStadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ MetlifeStadium
Washington Commanders @ MetlifeStadium