Big Blue Huddle

Here is a good article on Jake Kubas


https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/new-york-giants/jake-kubas-lineman-undrafted-free-agent/

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on Today at 11:47:47 AMIf you listen to nothing more than the last ten minutes or so, it's worth it. Toomer goes into a lot of detail about becoming a pro, what it takes physically and mentally...about not fearing about competition, but actually wanting it, etc. Amani tells it like it is (it's simply business) from a player's perspective and his unique point of view on DJ as well as running backs. He explains to players that you have to get better every year or you're gone, and don't fear being replaced, but embrace it and use it to push yourself further

A good example is Kayvon who spent the offseason getting bigger and stronger, as shown here in Spring workout...exactly as Toomer explains in his dialogue. He looks jacked and will look great across his new bookend Burns. They will push each other

I got excited when Ojulari came to OTAs jacked.  Since then, a player coming in jacked is not something I immediately celebrate

Quote from: brownelvis54 on Today at 01:04:31 PMWhy do some teams get tons of picks? Example KC ?


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-undrafted-free-agent-tracker-full-team-by-team-list-of-every-player-who-signed-following-nfl-draft/

Every team has the same 90 guys going into camp.  The Giants seem to favor keeping all those still under contract from last season, including most of the PS, along with street free-agent signings after the season to fill out their 90 rather than going with big undrafted rookie classes.   It's a trend that seemed to start with Gettleman and continues under Schoen.

Quote from: brownelvis54 on Today at 12:59:07 PMRich, this is it?


Missouri OL Marcellus Johnson (source)
Wyoming WR Ayir Asante (source)
UConn WR Geordon Porter
Minnesota WR Chris Autman-Bell
Georgia Southern TE Jay McAfee
North Carolina T William Barnes
Oregon IDL Casey Rogers
LSU EDGE Ovie Oghoufo
UCLA CB Alex Johnson

add in the kicker from Rutgers and that's about it.  The Giants UDRFA class had only 9 slots.  Even before Schoen and Daboll, the Giants didn't seem to be into big UDRFA classes.

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on Today at 12:29:36 PMI'm pretty pro-analytics, but this guy is talking in a vacuum about historical draft value without any reference to what resources were available in this particular draft. Would it have been great if a top-tier, flawless edge was available at 6? Hell yeah! But no defensive player went until 15 for a reason. Understandably, this may be difficult to encapsulate in statistics... but then it's your job to call out the potential flaws and drawbacks from your approach, not double-down with criticism.

I think the bigger flaw is not fully appreciating the limitations of analytics.  If you are drafting a QB, you can't say, "Well, historically, you have less than a 50% chance of success with that pick".  Those sorts of claims hold true if you were drafting, say, a hundred QBs.  In that case, likely less than 50 would be hits.  However, in the case of a single pick, while those stats can give a vague sense of one's chances of success, the individual pick and the factors around that pick (support and coaching) will have a far greater impact.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on Today at 12:04:50 PMOne would think an "analytics" guy would know Nabers wasn't drafted in the top 5. 

Interesting point.   I picked up on the fact that he seemed unaware that Nubins was drafted with a low 2nd round pick rather than the Giants' second-round pick (which the Giants had traded away for Burns)

Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Adding North Dakota State OT Jake Kubas: $270K guaranteed. That's the richest guarantee I've seen aside from Colorado State CB Chig Anusiem, who the Giants were interested in but he fetched $350K guaranteed from Washington.

A practice squad salary for the full season is $225K. The Giants guaranteed Kubas $240K in salary plus a $30K signing bonus. Strong indication that they expect him to at least land on their P-squad (although with offsets, they'd only have $45K in dead money if they cut him and he signs with another team's PS).

Kevin Cole

@Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF, Director of Data & Analytics @RotoGrinders
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https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1786054520390266961

"Destiny guides our fortunes more favorably than we could have expected. Look there, Sancho Panza, my friend, and see those thirty or so wild giants, with whom I intend to do battle and kill each and all of them, so with their stolen booty we can begin to enrich ourselves. This is nobel, righteous warfare, for it is wonderfully useful to God to have such an evil race wiped from the face of the earth."
"What giants?" Asked Sancho Panza.
"The ones you can see over there," answered his master, "with the huge arms, some of which are very nearly two leagues long."
"Now look, your grace," said Sancho, "what you see over there aren't giants, but windmills, and what seems to be arms are just their sails, that go around in the wind and turn the millstone."
"Obviously," replied Don Quijote, "you don't know much about adventures."

Marc Ross, the man who oversaw the Giants' drafts for 11 years (his last draft was just graded in the 3-year draft grade thread), gave his take on the Giants drafting Nabers.


https://x.com/NFLTotalAccess/status/1784652442338197696


Carl Banks addressed his comments (Carl has had his disputes with Ross in the past).  Banks pointed out that Ross didn't directly say Daniel Jones was a bad QB.   Banks also pointed out, that if Nabers is as advertised, it will definitely help Daniel Jones (along with the other WRs)

Banks also disputed Ross' claim that the Giants drafted Nabers to try and fix Daniel Jones.  Banks said that Nabers was drafted because the Giants needed a modern offense, and that starts with at least one elite receiver on your roster.   Banks felt Jones was on his own (DJ will sink or swim on his own).   If Jones wants to stay with NYG he is going to have to earn it himself.  He did suggest he expects and improves Jones, but the key is Jones getting comfortable that his O-line is able to protect him.

I will say that Marc Ross tests one of my core tenets.   I have a strong preference for seeking out former NFL people to hear their opinions and views on football.   In general, I feel those views and opinions are more valid and tend to be better than other commentators.

Yet, what do I do with someone like Marc Ross, who I witnessed as terrible at his job for 11 years?  The man even has a degree from Princeton, so he is certainly not stupid.

To date, I simply take the approach that I take with most of the true experts.  Listen to what they have to say (while giving them the benefit of the doubt), but don't take their word as gospel.  They need to support and lay out sound arguments for why they hold the opinions they do (especially, hot takes).

I will say, I don't disagree with his assertion big picture.   If Jones doesn't have it in him to be a franchise QB, Nabers will not change or fix that.   On the other hand, if Jones isn't as bad as some people think, an elite QB can really elevate DJ's game.  Ultimately, time will tell.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on Today at 10:34:33 AMThis past year the Eagles started out very strong and completely imploded, starting 10-1 and then finishing 1-6 including getting shredded in their one and done playoff game.  It will be interesting if that end of the season leaves a hangover.

Carl Banks thinks it will.   Banks feels that late-season victory over a team (who needed a win) that had been bullying you for years was big for NYG's confidence

Perhaps the best way to get up to speed on the undrafted rookies.  Today, they cover the offensive players.

First I was intrigued by this story Matt Waldman told about Lock

Quote"I remember evaluating him [Lock] and saying he looked like a kid who's very talented who at some point in his during his high school career and college career he was probably told by outside quarterback coaches, by coaches in his program things that he could work on to become the best quarterback he could be and get more ready for the NFL. When he came to the league Payton Manning called him up and said anything I can do for you, you let me know. It's easy for me to say as a 54-year-old man in hindsight what I would have liked to have done if I were able to be in Drew Lock's situation at that point because I probably would have said with the wisdom I have now, which is unfair to Drew, but would have been 'can I live in your garage, do chores for you, whatever I need to do and basically spend as much time as possible reviewing film with you and having you reviewing my game and you showing me what conceptually I need to get better at and work and how to work at my craft technically and conceptually to get better.' But from what I was told is that he said thanks and didn't call him back.

"Then, three years later when Teddy Bridgewater was brought to town to compete for his job with him that's when he called Payton Manning."

As it turned out, Lock's father confirmed the accuracy of Waldman's initial collegiate scouting report on Lock.

"His dad told a sideline reporter, I love my son he's a great kid he's a good guy but we've been telling him for years here are little details you need to work on, here are things that you need to get better at when you get to the NFL this is going to be different and he just smiled and nodded, but he didn't work at those things and it's kind of catching up to him. You can see in Seattle when he had some nice games, you kind of get the impression that it's kind of clicked in his head that, oh yeah maybe this is how I need to work. Doesn't make him a bad kid, doesn't make him a bad player, it just means that he had to get better at his job and maybe didn't know how, and maybe it didn't register what was being told to him because it's easy for people to tell you the NFL is a lot tougher.

"I share that because the important point of this is that a lot of players go through this and the NFL doesn't support that well because they force players in immediately."

I went back and studied Lock's scouting reports coming out of college.  He has a strong arm and excelled at the deep ball (his shorter throws less so).  He was compared to Matt Stafford.  Lock has arm talent, but his mechanics are inconsistent, and he has some questionable.

I studied his stats (not particularly impressive).  I read up on his days with the Broncos.  Most faulted Lock as well as the Broncos (for failing to support him or playing to his strengths).

I looked at Lock's stats in Seattle (admittedly a bit of a limited data set with 2 full games and two part games) and compared that to Geno Smith-  Lock's stats were lower than Smith's)

Daboll has a reputation of a reputation for being a bit of a QB whisperer.   Combine that with Lock seeming to understand what it takes to be an NFL QB (he should as he turns 28 in November) there is a chance he could reach the ceiling (a good starter) with the Giants.   A lot will hinge on Lock and his ability to improve his mechanics and decision-making (his TD-to-INT ratio is less than ideal).

I think if Lock is pressed into starter duty there is maybe a 10% chance he could be the next Geno Smith or Goff who finds his groove with a team other than the one that drafted him.

If you are interested in learning more about him, here's a good breakdown by Nick Falato





Link to the Waldman quote

https://www.bigblueview.com/2024/4/5/24121878/nfl-draft-matt-waldman-on-the-2024-qb-class-the-development-fallacy-and-much-more#:~:text=%E2%80%9CI%20remember%20evaluating%20him%20%5BLock,he%20could%20be%20and%20get

https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1786030602900193493

https://x.com/BigBlueVCR/status/1786017801242923226