This thread is for discussing investing, the market, crypto, and other financial topics. Please do not post political commentary or political talking points
I am going to start by sharing one of my quirks as an investor. I love stocks or stock funds that pay dividends. I know you can make more (and it's more efficient tax-wise) to invest in growth stocks, but I like the idea of dividends. As long as they are stable, you can ride out the bear markets while still getting paid, versus only making money when you sell.
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 14, 2022, 09:42:17 AM
This thread is for discussing investing, the market, crypto, and other financial topics. Please do not post political commentary or political talking points
I am going to start by sharing one of my quirks as an investor. I love stocks or stock funds that pay dividends. I know you can make more (and it's more efficient tax-wise) to invest in growth stocks, but I like the idea of dividends. As long as they are stable, you can ride out the bear markets while still getting paid, versus only making money when you sell.
Rich: Nice idea for a topic. IMO there is nothing quirky about your preference, regardless of age.
Key points: it's more about assuming no more risk than you're comfortable with and maintaining as much diversification as you see fit. And there is CLEARLY nothing wrong with patience (which you have).
For anyone interested, especially if you are interested in reviewing basic points, you can get Charles Payne's book "Unstoppable Prosperity" essentially for free. You pay less than $10 shipping (I think it's $7.95).
You get his book, a DVD, and some other stuff for free, no strings attached. Well worth reading for the average person. I've been investing for 54 years and consider myself average in knowledge and results.
The link is below. There is no "pestering" or any other hidden cost. They hope you'll sign up for seminars, etc., but it is definitely not a requirement for getting the free materials. It's just their cost of doing business.
https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwjdguiZuf_1AhWw_-MHHZshCmEYABAAGgJ5bQ&ohost=www.google.com&cid=CAASE-RoUQzjYtjLTDgBiqMpf9CxMU4&sig=AOD64_3uvQgutc35COQvNFUs42LqkNcAaw&q&adurl&ved=2ahUKEwjL1d-Zuf_1AhVtjokEHU-kAxYQ0Qx6BAgDEAE
Bob
Does anyone listen to investing podcasts? I do, including Motley Fool Money and Morningstar along with a Zack's podcast and occasionally the Disciplined investor.
Does anyone else listen to podcasts? If so, which ones?
I am planning on buying on the dip. Any sector or stock you think I should look into?
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 23, 2022, 08:26:48 AM
I am planning on buying on the dip. Any sector or stock you think I should look into?
Really, really volatile right now. There's a huge dip right now, but it could get even worse thanks to Putin's idiocy. And of course, the stock market overreacts whenever any crisis comes along. It has the emotions of an hysterical hormonal teenager.
Unfortunately, right now no matter what anyone does, they are losing money. If your money is in cash, it's getting eroded every single day by inflation. Bond rates are so minuscule that investing there just means you don't lose quite as much money from inflation as you do holding it in cash. The market and precious metals are all over the place and not in a good place. All in all, because of inflation and Putin making trouble, there are few options for growing your nest egg.
The tech correction is a killer right now. Metaverse is getting killed and it might not get better as people are abandoning Facebook like rats on a sinking ship and nearly every country is looking to regulate it with tough laws. There might be some opportunity in the energy sector, especially oil, but tread carefully because that's volatile too. I am staying out of it.
As far as advice goes, I don't like to give advice because if it turns out badly, I have an ex-friend who will never forgive me if all goes to hell. And in the stock market, that can happen. Best bet IMHO, no matter what the market does, think long term.
Here's a couple of links to articles by people far smarter than me:
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-russia-ukraine-crisis-stock-market-strategy-morningstar-2022-2 (https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-russia-ukraine-crisis-stock-market-strategy-morningstar-2022-2)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-22/will-putin-rhetoric-and-russian-troops-in-ukraine-affect-stocks-and-markets (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-22/will-putin-rhetoric-and-russian-troops-in-ukraine-affect-stocks-and-markets)
For tracking individual stocks, this site is pretty good. You can look into any stock to see how it has performed in 1-day, 5-days, 30-days, 1-year, etc as well as see every article on the internet that talks about that stock. It also has daily news articles about what the market is doing and analysts discussing what might happen, etc. https://stockanalysis.com/ (https://stockanalysis.com/)
Ric,
For the record, I only seek investing ideas (that I pursue with my own research) versus advice where I would invest blindly
FWIW I have begun to dip my toes into some of the battered "tech" names. Uber and Netflix are ones I have bought recently around the current levels. My thinking is that while the selloffs could continue in the near term, both have had very big corrections (50-ish percent), and both are companies that I don't think are going anywhere. Both are smart, cutting edge companies that are pioneer brand names in their industries. Not only are they not going anywhere, but I don't think these are companies that will just sit on their laurels and fail to innovate/adapt. On the contrary, I think that is what these two (and other) companies are all about. Obviously, none of what I have said means that the stock price cannot continue to go lower from where it is today -- in fact I think it likely may -- but I do think these are both sound very 3-5 year investments (or longer). I think it is reasonable to speculate that the majority of the "pain" in these moves has played out.
Tech was extremely frothy heading into early-mid Q4 of last year. You had the covid stimulus and the QE/zero rate environment leading people to really chasing moves higher to silly levels in a lot of these stocks. However since then, the corrections have been huge. Moreover the market has become much more realistic and accepting about the reality of fed hikes and the removal of QE. So while again I am not saying these stocks can't/don't have further near term downside, when something that I regard as an excellent long term company corrects 50%, it begins to pique my interest. Should the ongoing downward moves continue, I will likely look to add further in these and other stocks.
While I am certainly long stocks overall, because the environment is skittish, I am continuing to hold a reasonable amount of cash, although my intention is to continue deploying it in certain areas when opportunities present themselves.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 23, 2022, 10:32:51 AM
FWIW I have begun to dip my toes into some of the battered "tech" names. Uber and Netflix are ones I have bought recently around the current levels. My thinking is that while the selloffs could continue in the near term, both have had very big corrections (50-ish percent), and both are companies that I don't think are going anywhere. Both are smart, cutting edge companies that are pioneer brand names in their industries. Not only are they not going anywhere, but I don't think these are companies that will just sit on their laurels and fail to innovate/adapt. On the contrary, I think that is what these two (and other) companies are all about. Obviously, none of what I have said means that the stock price cannot continue to go lower from where it is today -- in fact I think it likely may -- but I do think these are both sound very 3-5 year investments (or longer). I think it is reasonable to speculate that the majority of the "pain" in these moves has played out.
Tech was extremely frothy heading into early-mid Q4 of last year. You had the covid stimulus and the QE/zero rate environment leading people to really chasing moves higher to silly levels in a lot of these stocks. However since then, the corrections have been huge. Moreover the market has become much more realistic and accepting about the reality of fed hikes and the removal of QE. So while again I am not saying these stocks can't/don't have further near term downside, when something that I regard as an excellent long term company corrects 50%, it begins to pique my interest. Should the ongoing downward moves continue, I will likely look to add further in these and other stocks.
While I am certainly long stocks overall, because the environment is skittish, I am continuing to hold a reasonable amount of cash, although my intention is to continue deploying it in certain areas when opportunities present themselves.
I am wondering about Netflix in the long run. I mean there was a time that Netflix was the unquestioned king of streaming. Now you have Disney and HBO max nipping at their heels. Plus you have other entries like Paramount Plus, Apple Plus, and Peacock to go along with old favorites like Hula
The more players, the more demand there will be in terms of the the talent used to create content which will drive up prices and make it harder to produce high end content.
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 23, 2022, 10:43:25 AM
I am wondering about Netflix in the long run. I mean there was a time that Netflix was the unquestioned king of streaming. Now you have Disney and HBO max nipping at their heels. Plus you have other entries like Paramount Plus, Apple Plus, and Peacock to go along with old favorites like Hula
The more players, the more demand there will be in terms of the the talent used to create content which will drive up prices and make it harder to produce high end content.
I feel like HBO Max is a slightly different model. A lot of their content is driven by their flagship channel, which is not what Netflix is based off of as their brand is pure streaming. We have HBO Max, but that's in part because we like many HBO shows. Since they also sometimes do HBO max exclusives, they got us roped in. However this doesn't make me want Netflix any less. I appreciate that there are others like Amazon Prime and the ones you mentioned, and that is a totally valid point and I have considered it as well, but I still think Netflix is the pioneer name, and I still believe they are innovative and cutting edge.
I get your overall point. We have moved from a situation where one player was completely dominant to there being many players. I think the big loser in this though is the past means of entertainment like cable TV and brick and mortar movie theaters. As the concept of streaming is still relatively young, I don't think the leading name in it is on the brink of extinction or even significant decline because other players have entered the arena. I still think they will remain a powerhouse myself.
I feel similarly about Uber by the way. 7-9 years ago there were not really other players in that arena. I guess there may have been, but nobody really knew who they were. Not you have tons of others like Lyft, Via, Curb, Gett, etc. I think when you're the first monster in a new space though you have a real advantage. You can lose that advantage by slacking off and resting on your laurels, but if you remain cutting edge (which Uber definitely is), people will continue to respect you as the preeminent, most trusted force in that market and the competition can only take away so much from you. I think Netflix is similar in this respect, personally. I'm happy to nibble on these companies after a roughly 50% decline.
I am truly baffled by the stock market for the last two days. I was planning on buying on the dip, but for some reason beyond my comprehension, the market has been rising the last two days. This is why I invest in stocks rather than trade stocks. For the life of me, I can't understand how markets react. I wonder if computerized trading has something to do with the unpredictability
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 25, 2022, 12:58:44 PM
I am truly baffled by the stock market for the last two days. I was planning on buying on the dip, but for some reason beyond my comprehension, the market has been rising the last two days. This is why I invest in stocks rather than trade stocks. For the life of me, I can't understand how markets react. I wonder if computerized trading has something to do with the unpredictability
Rich: I saw what you saw yesterday. IMO you will get another chance. Generally, trying to find the exact bottom is a losing proposition. IMO it will go back down once more to again test the low point of the recent dip.
In view of your stated investment style, the following will be of more relevance to you: I do think there are super values to be had, but you'll probably be safer to continue to wait a short while longer.
IMO, we're still not "out-of-the-woods." I see you as a relatively long-term value-type investor, and IMO therefore you should be slow to act unless and until you're SURE we're not at the end of this bull market.
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on February 25, 2022, 02:11:46 PM
Rich: I saw what you saw yesterday. IMO you will get another chance. Generally, trying to find the exact bottom is a losing proposition. IMO it will go back down once more to again test the low point of the recent dip.
In view of your stated investment style, the following will be of more relevance to you: I do think there are super values to be had, but you'll probably be safer to continue to wait a short while longer.
IMO, we're still not "out-of-the-woods." I see you as a relatively long-term value-type investor, and IMO therefore you should be slow to act unless and until you're SURE we're not at the end of this bull market.
Bob
I appreciate you can never time a dip or peak, but I really thought there was no rush, that things would be down at least for a week or two (perhaps more depending on the world event).
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 25, 2022, 02:17:37 PM
I appreciate you can never time a dip or peak, but I really thought there was no rush, that things would be down at least for a week or two (perhaps more depending out world event).
Rich: Me too. IMO the quick strong rebound shows the presence of value and a seriously oversold condition, BUT it also means lots folks agree with us (I'm always wary of moving with the crowd). Bob
On a slightly different note. Crypto currency got hammered during this (came back much like stocks though). Prior to this week, some people were pushing the idea that like gold, Crypto was a safe harbor for your money during troubled times. Boy was that claim proven to be wrong.
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 25, 2022, 03:34:55 PM
On a slightly different note. Crypto currency got hammered during this (came back much like stocks though). Prior to this week, some people were pushing the idea that like gold, Crypto was a safe harbor for your money during troubled times. Boy was that claim proven to be wrong.
It sure has. Crypto has been buoyed by zero rates/QE/stimulus like every other risk asset. With the fed now finally beginning to let the air out of the balloon, crypto has taken a dive over the past few months.
What's kind of funny/ironic is that crypto was supposed to be this disruptor, alt asset for those who are opposed to excessive Fed money printing, artificially low rates, and heavy government stimulus spending, etc. And yet the surge in crypto in 2021 was due pretty much entirely to those exact forces. And now that those forces are being reduced, and the Fed is about to begin normalizing and is almost done tapering QE, crypto is weaker. So this whole premise that it's this rebellious asset is kind of false in a way. It benefited tremendously from the same market forces that have benefited stocks, real estate, and other assets prices.
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 23, 2022, 08:26:48 AM
I am planning on buying on the dip. Any sector or stock you think I should look into?
I just realized I have front porch on Taptalk now. About 5 years ago I took over my moms finances as she went in a home and I sold her house to fund her bills for dementia care. I went to a respected investor some of the guys at work use. He helped me set up stock funds through Vangaurd at a risk category of 2 and 3 out of 5 -5 being most aggressive. Mom didn't have much and I was stressed how long I could keep her in good care. When the pandemic crashed the market, her money was completely safe. I got super lucky and timed the dip perfect, moving all her money into the most aggressive fund I could find. I made a clean 30% return that year. Anyhow, mom passed away last month. She had the best care all the way through and few bucks left over for her kids too.
As a side note, the investor told me to not worry about aggressively paying off my house to retire. I refinanced to a low interest rate and went full in on 401k pre tax for over 50 at 27k a year. The pre tax savings for 401k investing plus the rate of return over saving on a home interest loan have helped balloon my 401k. At this point, I am on pace to retire at 55 in 2.5 years.
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Quote from: gregf on March 15, 2022, 10:35:12 AM
I just realized I have front porch on Taptalk now. About 5 years ago I took over my moms finances as she went in a home and I sold her house to fund her bills for dementia care. I went to a respected investor some of the guys at work use. He helped me set up stock funds through Vangaurd at a risk category of 2 and 3 out of 5 -5 being most aggressive. Mom didn't have much and I was stressed how long I could keep her in good care. When the pandemic crashed the market, her money was completely safe. I got super lucky and timed the dip perfect, moving all her money into the most aggressive fund I could find. I made a clean 30% return that year. Anyhow, mom passed away last month. She had the best care all the way through and few bucks left over for her kids too.
As a side note, the investor told me to not worry about aggressively paying off my house to retire. I refinanced to a low interest rate and went full in on 401k pre tax for over 50 at 27k a year. The pre tax savings for 401k investing plus the rate of return over saving on a home interest loan have helped balloon my 401k. At this point, I am on pace to retire at 55 in 2.5 years.
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I am a big advocate of maxing out (or putting in as much as possible) one's 401K. It's like found money (no taxes taken out). I mean you will pay taxes down the road, but it will be likely at a lower tax rate.
Quote from: gregf on March 15, 2022, 10:35:12 AM
I just realized I have front porch on Taptalk now. About 5 years ago I took over my moms finances as she went in a home and I sold her house to fund her bills for dementia care. I went to a respected investor some of the guys at work use. He helped me set up stock funds through Vangaurd at a risk category of 2 and 3 out of 5 -5 being most aggressive. Mom didn't have much and I was stressed how long I could keep her in good care. When the pandemic crashed the market, her money was completely safe. I got super lucky and timed the dip perfect, moving all her money into the most aggressive fund I could find. I made a clean 30% return that year. Anyhow, mom passed away last month. She had the best care all the way through and few bucks left over for her kids too.
As a side note, the investor told me to not worry about aggressively paying off my house to retire. I refinanced to a low interest rate and went full in on 401k pre tax for over 50 at 27k a year. The pre tax savings for 401k investing plus the rate of return over saving on a home interest loan have helped balloon my 401k. At this point, I am on pace to retire at 55 in 2.5 years.
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greg: You look younger than your years! And once again, sorry for your loss but great to hear that it didn't hurt your personal finances. Bob
In my own investing, I bought some banking ETF (they are cheap right now because they got beaten down by the general market conditions) as I believe that the banks will go up as the interest rates go up (which increases the earnings of banks)
Otherwise, I am still keeping my powder dry to see how things go
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 15, 2022, 10:38:50 AM
I am a big advocate of maxing out (or putting in as much as possible) one's 401K. It's like found money (no taxes taken out). I mean you will pay taxes down the road, but it will be likely at a lower tax rate.
Rich: I just finished watching some author named Ed Slott who would make the opposite point, one which I can understand but do not necessarily agree with.
He knows the only way for the U.S. to ever pay off it's horrendous national debt is with higher taxes. He glossed over the point that the most people "make" less money after they retire & no longer receive a salary.
He advises people with a "regular" IRA to immediately roll it into a Roth IRA and pay the taxes (as tax rates presumably are likely to rise) but IMO for the majority of people that's not necessarily a good idea.
I have taken a middle-of-the-road approach and began years ago, after retiring (but long before being required to do so by law) taking a portion out of my IRA every year and paying the taxes on it
Luckily, I have a trustworthy daughter to give it to. Her job is to use it as she sees fit, with the warning that either I or my wife may some day come looking for it, so she treats it as "family" money subject to "recall".
Bob
I will add one more thing. Greg mentioned debt. You should look at debt as any other investment. Compare the interest you are paying on debt with the interest (or return) you can make with your money. If the interest on the debt is greater (it often is) then pay down the debt rather than invest the money elsewhere
Bob, ( or any others)what's your take on the 4% rule of withdrawing your money? He's my scenario. During the pandemic, we had 3 coworkers about 50 all die within one month. A good friend of mine, 50 at the time, up and quit at this point. He and his wife pooled all their money and a plan to draw 7% indefinitely if the past returns continue.
My plan is to budget 50% retirement with my pension and to draw 5 to 6% from 401k for the rest. More money comes in when I can collect social security. Also, if my returns do poorly. I dont anticipate spending lavishly when I'm 75.
Anybody else have advice on withdrawal rate?
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Morningstar has an excellent weekly podcast that has tends to discuss retirement quite a bit. The formula I am hearing is 4% maybe even 3% (because people are living longer). If you are willing to take more risk (and get better returns) you can bump it up from those numbers, but there is that risk.
Here is the podcast where they talk withdrawal rates
https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/investing-insights/149
Quote from: gregf on March 15, 2022, 06:08:31 PM
Bob, ( or any others)what's your take on the 4% rule of withdrawing your money? He's my scenario. During the pandemic, we had 3 coworkers about 50 all die within one month. A good friend of mine, 50 at the time, up and quit at this point. He and his wife pooled all their money and a plan to draw 7% indefinitely if the past returns continue.
My plan is to budget 50% retirement with my pension and to draw 5 to 6% from 401k for the rest. More money comes in when I can collect social security. Also, if my returns do poorly. I dont anticipate spending lavishly when I'm 75.
Anybody else have advice on withdrawal rate?
greg: The "basic" (and, I'm afraid, obvious) answer is to try to come up with a plan that does not involve withdrawal of any 401k money until required to do so by law. Of course, if you cannot manage that, then the next best answer is (also obvious) rather than setting a percentage or trying to devise a plan in advance, just withdraw what you absolutely need each year (but not before you need it). These answers I know are not much help, but there are so many variables and specifics that my very best answer is to
consult a financial planner for informed advice (and don't buy anything from him lol). You can rather inexpensively get a person to map out a general plan for you after providing him with all the details. Lastly, if you really want to hear what I think (with no experience in this field, I'm shooting from the hip)) start with your life expectancy at the time you want to make the first withdrawal (let's say you actually retire at age 65 and your life expectancy is 20 years, then ADD FIVE years to that (giving you 20 + 5 = 25), now divide 25 into 100 and each year take out 4 percent of whatever the balance of your account happens to be, until you turn the age where you must use the government chart to make mandatory withdrawals, then take the mandatory minimum. Bob
Bob's advice about professional assistance is a good one, although can be challenging.
Here is a good article that explains who you might want to work with (it's not simple)
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/how-to-choose-a-financial-advisor/
Here is a good link that discusses various certifications they may have
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/101001.asp
I like the link Rich just posted, and here's another along similar lines...
https://www.edelmanfinancialengines.com/education/planning-investing/how-to-choose-a-financial-advisor/
Greg
First -- very sorry to hear about your Mom. I know it may not be much, but she was ver y lucky to ahve you for a son, that looked after her as well as you did. God Bless you.
Now, as someone who has been retired for about 15 years--
First, I worked for myself so I have no pension, and not much in an IRA. My wife worked for NYC and geta a small pension, but she has a decent amount of money in her retirement account. WE are definitely no gamblers and our investments have always been on the conservative side. As long as we see a halfway decent return and not lose money to inflation, we are satisfied. We have no outstanding bills and are able to come and go as we please.
That said, I started drawing Soc Sec at 62--I had to. If I was able I would put it off until I was 66, if you fall into that category. Since I just turned 76, I had to start drawing from my IRA at 71 and took the least amount that I was required to take. In fact, last year, when we did basically nothing, all the money that was withdrawn was put into other things as I just did not need it.
We have an investment guy who handles our money. Maybe I shouldn't say this without knocking on wood, but since the market has done so well, I have more money in my IRA, even with the yearly withdrawals, than when I retired. (Not a lot more, but it hasn't gone down throughout my withdrawal period, so I never even bothered to rethink 3%, 4% or whatever. I think you have to withdraw 3% at age 71m but you can reinvest it in other things.
I could never sleep if I were to invest in anything aggressive, but that's just me. I am content with what we have and hope we have enough to keep enjoying ourselves. We look at it this way, each year we get older and our money is still stable and increasing, even slowly, we should be able to spend more as our life expectancy is going down (less years to enjoy it). Thinbgs that once were no-nos because of high costs, are now, well on the radar to enjoy, if you know what I mean.
Lenn, Bob, Ritch, thanks for the feedback. I respect all the views, but I'm going to share perhaps a different perspective. To start, I have seen too many family and friends not reach 60. I believe most people older than me retire on pensions or ss. The next generations rarely receive pensions and are expected to retire off of 401k's. Historically the SP500 averages 8 to 9% 1/3rd of my money is in VPMAX. The 10 year average return is 15%
Say I have 1 million and I invest poor or conservative and only average 4% return and draw out 6% The 2% loss would take 50 years to draw to zero. Of course inflation halves the money every 25 years. My view is I want a solid 25 year run financially off my investments. If I'm poor at 80, so be it.
Anyhow, 5% of my 401k is expected to be half my budget at 55 when I retire. ( not including ss) I believe I can pace the principle plus inflation. If I don't, so be it. I'm super excited to take Lenn and Bob's job in 2 years!
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Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 23, 2022, 10:32:51 AM
FWIW I have begun to dip my toes into some of the battered "tech" names. Uber and Netflix are ones I have bought recently around the current levels. My thinking is that while the selloffs could continue in the near term, both have had very big corrections (50-ish percent), and both are companies that I don't think are going anywhere. Both are smart, cutting edge companies that are pioneer brand names in their industries. Not only are they not going anywhere, but I don't think these are companies that will just sit on their laurels and fail to innovate/adapt. On the contrary, I think that is what these two (and other) companies are all about. Obviously, none of what I have said means that the stock price cannot continue to go lower from where it is today -- in fact I think it likely may -- but I do think these are both sound very 3-5 year investments (or longer). I think it is reasonable to speculate that the majority of the "pain" in these moves has played out.
Tech was extremely frothy heading into early-mid Q4 of last year. You had the covid stimulus and the QE/zero rate environment leading people to really chasing moves higher to silly levels in a lot of these stocks. However since then, the corrections have been huge. Moreover the market has become much more realistic and accepting about the reality of fed hikes and the removal of QE. So while again I am not saying these stocks can't/don't have further near term downside, when something that I regard as an excellent long term company corrects 50%, it begins to pique my interest. Should the ongoing downward moves continue, I will likely look to add further in these and other stocks.
While I am certainly long stocks overall, because the environment is skittish, I am continuing to hold a reasonable amount of cash, although my intention is to continue deploying it in certain areas when opportunities present themselves.
Condolences on Netflix
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2022, 08:26:55 AM
Condolences on Netflix
Yeah - Netflix took a beating lately thanks to an overly skittish market that tends to overreact to every little thing. Netflix will bounce back as it is a strong company. In general, the whole market is crazy. Companies with 2X earnings over past year go down, another company still in the red goes up. A story comes out on a company and the stock goes up like a rocket (then sells off) or sinks like a rock in a pond. It's been an interesting year so far. Crazy times - especially the tech and energy market.
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on April 21, 2022, 09:55:10 AM
Yeah - Netflix took a beating lately thanks to an overly skittish market that tends to overreact to every little thing. Netflix will bounce back as it is a strong company. In general, the whole market is crazy. Companies with 2X earnings over past year go down, another company still in the red goes up. A story comes out on a company and the stock goes up like a rocket (then sells off) or sinks like a rock in a pond. It's been an interesting year so far. Crazy times - especially the tech and energy market.
Ric,
I am not so sure about Netflix. I mean I have been a Netflix customer since back in the day of the red envelopes containing DVDs. The thing is while Netflix has developed its own content it still was about content from other providers. As these other streaming services popped up the offerings that Netflix could give have shrunk. I mean Britbox and Acorn have taken the British TV. CBS and Paramount studios have their own offering. Same with NBC. Disney took back their content along with Star Wars and the Marvel Universe. HBO Max has its offerings plus all of Adult Swim and DC Universe offerings. The amount of content available to Netflix has greatly diminished and I doubt this situation will get better any time soon.
Plus there are the "mistakes" Netflix has made. They raise prices too high pissing off customers and no doubt triggering cancelations. Netflix also is quick to cancel its own series which doesn't make people who invest in the series all that happy (plus once it's canceled it reduces the value of their own offering).
In the end, part of the price of Netflix involved growth, and moving forward I struggle to see where Netflix will find that growth. Streaming services are pretty much a no-moat business so being first doesn't mean you will be the best or the biggest.
Solid current NY Times article about Netflix:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/29/business/netflix-stock-market-earnings.html
It is amazing how much television programming is out there for free. Pluto,Tubi and all the apps that come with a smart TV or firestick or roku etc I could almost get by without paying for any paying streaming service.
I currently pay for Netflix (which I would probably cancel if not for the bride) Hulu+ which I enjoy very much. But I used to have Spectrum cable service and canceled it and went with Hulu and that save me a lot.
I am a television junkie.
Bill
Are people holding the line on your investments or are you bailing (or buying) in this market downturn?
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 11, 2022, 12:02:43 PM
Are people holding the line on your investments or are you bailing (or buying) in this market downturn?
Not bailing, not buying...just holding my nose and crossing my fingers in hopes that the market rebounds soon ~X(
I agree with Jolly precisely... but IT DEPENDS what type of stocks you're holding (if any) and IMO more importantly what percent of the maximum amount of money you're willing to invest is already invested.
For example, someone "caught" with only 20% of their funds in the market during this (or any) drop is in a radically different position from a person who still has 80 percent of his fund invested.
And of course, it depends on your age and how long- or short-term your horizon is until you will want to "cash out" and spend the money.
Bob
Before my mom passed away, I had her money conservatively invested. When the pandemic hit. It allowed me to buy during the downturn and get a nice return as her money never lost value during the drop. She had little to work with so it had to be safe investments.
Now for myself, I considered squirelling away 20% of my 401k for bad times like this,to just allow the market to swing and pull from safe money. However, since 50% of my retirement income will come from pension, I am all in for the swings, for better or worse. I just don't know enough to time it all- who does. I'm playing the long game of 5 to 10 year average returns. So Im standing still.
Any crypto currency investors? That's a scary area these days.
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Quote from: gregf on May 13, 2022, 12:25:13 PM
Before my mom passed away, I had her money conservatively invested. When the pandemic hit. It allowed me to buy during the downturn and get a nice return as her money never lost value during the drop. She had little to work with so it had to be safe investments.
Now for myself, I considered squirelling away 20% of my 401k for bad times like this,to just allow the market to swing and pull from safe money. However, since 50% of my retirement income will come from pension, I am all in for the swings, for better or worse. I just don't know enough to time it all- who does. I'm playing the long game of 5 to 10 year average returns. So Im standing still.
Any crypto currency investors? That's a scary area these days.
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greg: Two thoughts, for what they're worth (which IMO is probably not much):
(1) cryptocurrency - I can't imagine owning something that only exists theoretically, which I can't hold in my hand, and which only 10 people in the world can explain correctly. In addition to that thought, there is this:
(2) Eventually, the scum in Washington known collectively as politicians will come to you younger people (probably after I'm long gone) with the bright idea to get stop using paper money and replace it with some form of electronic accounts. Don't buy into it, now matter WHO stands behind that idea. How much "money" will you have - and how can you spend it - if the power goes out?
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on May 13, 2022, 12:35:23 PM
greg: Two thoughts, for what they're worth (which IMO is probably not much):
(1) cryptocurrency - I can't imagine owning something that only exists theoretically, which I can't hold in my hand, and which only 10 people in the world can explain correctly. In addition to that thought, there is this:
(2) Eventually, the scum in Washington known collectively as politicians will come to you younger people (probably after I'm long gone) with the bright idea to get stop using paper money and replace it with some form of electronic accounts. Don't buy into it, now matter WHO stands behind that idea. How much "money" will you have - and how can you spend it - if the power goes out?
Bob
LOL! Bob, I can picture one of your ancestors giving a similar speech about not trusting that new fangled paper money and that gold is the only thing you can trust :D :laugh:
Quote from: Bob In PA on May 13, 2022, 12:35:23 PM
greg: Two thoughts, for what they're worth (which IMO is probably not much):
(1) cryptocurrency - I can't imagine owning something that only exists theoretically, which I can't hold in my hand, and which only 10 people in the world can explain correctly. In addition to that thought, there is this:
(2) Eventually, the scum in Washington known collectively as politicians will come to you younger people (probably after I'm long gone) with the bright idea to get stop using paper money and replace it with some form of electronic accounts. Don't buy into it, now matter WHO stands behind that idea. How much "money" will you have - and how can you spend it - if the power goes out?
Bob
I consider myself above average intelligence based only on my scholastic averages at three different colleges (even graduated Cum Laude) and I was a math and statistics major and computer programming minor before switching to engineering major
With that - now that I'm through patting myself on my own back, I have tried to explain cryptocurrency to my best friend Bob (also a graduate of Binghamton Univ. and top of his class) because he can't figure it out and has researched it for an incredibly long time. After an hour or so comparing each other's notes and opinions on the concept, we both came away unable to even begin to figure it out. Your description "something that only exists theoretically" is my exact same view (and my friend Bob's). When I read it's the "new gold" because it has a "limited quantity" doesn't mean anything to me because it never existed in the first place. Even more confusing are NFTs
Regardless, I dabbled in crypto about a year ago in the stock market - made some money - got out and refused to invest anything in crypto, pharmaceutical, or marijuana companies about 6 or 7 months ago. Judging by the market since then, it was the right choice. Take for an example my first buy in my initial portfolio - VFF (Village Farms International)...I bought a 1,000 dollars worth of that stock at 5.19 and sold it when it hit 16.00 even though it continued to climb, It now sells for 3.13 :-?? And that's a company that is well run, growing, and profitable with a cash cow of the largest grower of tomatoes, green beans, and cucumbers in the world. It went on a runaway when they added growing pot to their business model. And now the stock is a penny stock :-??
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 13, 2022, 12:59:03 PM
LOL! Bob, I can picture one of your ancestors giving a similar speech about not trusting that new fangled paper money and that gold is the only thing you can trust :D :laugh:
Rich: If you think that didn't occur to me AS I wrote the post, you're wrong. LOL... but the other side of my brain replied: "yeah, but if the electricity goes off I'll still have EITHER my paper or my bar of gold in my hand." Bob
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 13, 2022, 12:59:03 PM
LOL! Bob, I can picture one of your ancestors giving a similar speech about not trusting that new fangled paper money and that gold is the only thing you can trust :D :laugh:
Rich: Upon further consideration, I want to point out in a separate post that IMO directing your humorous remark (which was aimed at "an ancestor of" mine rather than at me) was TRULY INSPIRED!!!
It conjured up the image of Fred Flintstone or Alley Oop (a reference probably obscure to most of our members) or some other cave-man cartoon character... with your words in the bubble above the guy's head.
One of your best 10 posts ever... too bad it's back here where not everyone visits.
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on May 13, 2022, 01:14:10 PM
Rich: Upon further consideration, I want to point out in a separate post that IMO directing your humorous remark at "an ancestor of" mine rather than at me was TRULY INSPIRED!!!
It conjured up the image of Fred Flintstone or Alley Oop (a reference probably obscure to most of our members) or some other cave-man cartoon character... with your words in the bubble above the guy's head.
One of your best 10 posts ever... too bad it's back here where not everyone visits.
Bob
when you go shopping, take note of how most stores are dependent on electricity to "ring you up". The items are scanned and the "register" (more like a computer) adds up all the costs of the items (which often don't even have individual price tags). The register even tells them how much change to give the customer) Do you think most stores will have people with pen and paper adding up your items (assuming they can tell how much each item costs) and calculating your change? It's not likely to happen in all but the small mom-and-pop-type stores (that are rapidly vanishing).
Hell, young people, today are often cash-free counting on phone apps and credit/debit cards for all their transactions. It's the wave of the future. I will also tell you that in the midst of the massive power failures in NJ during Sandy the internet was still up and running and even cell coverage (while degraded) still existed at least for the better carriers. Funny thing about the internet. Its roots were from DARPA (the "D" stands for defense) and the internet was built to withstand war or even smaller scale nuclear attack. It's very very hardy.
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 13, 2022, 01:20:50 PM
when you go shopping, take note of how most stores are dependent on electricity to "ring you up". The items are scanned and the "register" (more like a computer) adds up all the costs of the items (which often don't even have individual price tags). The register even tells them how much change to give the customer) Do you think most stores will have people with pen and paper adding up your items (assuming they can tell how much each item costs) and calculating your change? It's not likely to happen in all but the small mom-and-pop-type stores (that are rapidly vanishing).
Hell, young people, today are often cash-free counting on phone apps and credit/debit cards for all their transactions. It's the wave of the future. I will also tell you that in the midst of the massive power failures in NJ during Sandy the internet was still up and running and even cell coverage (while degraded) still existed at least for the better carriers. Funny thing about the internet. Its roots were from DARPA (the "D" stands for defense) and the internet was built to withstand war or even smaller scale nuclear attack. It's very very hardy.
Rich: Yes, in addition (or maybe just to "second" your thoughts) I worry that people will lose the ability to do basic tasks, and if the power "goes out" the entire economy will collapse... solely for that reason. Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on May 13, 2022, 01:34:59 PM
Rich: Yes, in addition (or maybe just to "second" your thoughts) I worry that people will lose the ability to do basic tasks, and if the power "goes out" the entire economy will collapse... solely for that reason. Bob
Yeah, I can't count the times I give a kid cashier some loose change in order to relieve my pocket of change and even it out to simple bills and they look at me like I'm from outer space. I gave a kid a 10.00 bill and 23 cents change to pay for an item that was 5.23. Expecting a 5.00 bill back, he gave me back 4 dollar bills, 77 cents change then handed me the 23 cents I gave him and told me I overpaid so here's this back. So I gave all the change that added up to a dollar and 4 one dollar bills and asked for a 5.00 bill, for which he carefully counted out and gave me the fiver..LOL Can't imagine the kid's reaction if I asked for a sawbuck or a Jackson
And asking them to count it out backwards is a joke unless the cashier is an older lady or gentleman. Really need to do a better job in our high schools teaching kids about money and finance. Reminds me of the funny meme where a guy thanks his school for teaching him trigonometry instead of finance and taxes...he says it comes in really handy during trigonometry season
Regardless, we all rely on electronic funding, but that isn't the same thing as crypto by any stretch of the imagination
Quote from: Bob In PA on May 13, 2022, 12:35:23 PM
greg: Two thoughts, for what they're worth (which IMO is probably not much):
(1) cryptocurrency - I can't imagine owning something that only exists theoretically, which I can't hold in my hand, and which only 10 people in the world can explain correctly. In addition to that thought, there is this:
(2) Eventually, the scum in Washington known collectively as politicians will come to you younger people (probably after I'm long gone) with the bright idea to get stop using paper money and replace it with some form of electronic accounts. Don't buy into it, now matter WHO stands behind that idea. How much "money" will you have - and how can you spend it - if the power goes out?
Bob
Bob. A long time ago, I was told to invest in what we see. Gas in our cars, coke on the shelf. The dot.com collapse couldn't be seen in some cases. What was tge company selling? Now software we use daily, computer chips, phones in our hand, it's part of our world.
Buy crypto has no practical use at all in my view. Funny thing, gold has little practical use either, but at least it's tangible and not in the clouds. Anyhow, I'd treat crypto like gambling. Invest with what you can afford to loose, maybe 1% or so.
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My two cents:
I think this is a tricky time. On the one hand, stuff has sold off immensely already, especially tech. On the other, we are coming out of a truly unprecedented environment of euphoria/mania during which there were record amounts of government spending/stimulus, QE, and zero rates. That caused a speculative frenzy the likes of which we have not seen in a very long time. All of that is now being removed (or has already) in rather abrupt fashion, so clearly markets are going to react. Meanwhile, recession clouds are forming. There is plenty to worry about right now, but obviously markets have already reacted considerably. Who is to say where the bottom will be though? I am sure there are stocks that are great deals right now, but when I read WSJ articles the consensus seems to be that tech stocks on the whole are not cheap yet. In fact, many feel they are still "expensive", which amazes me given the rout that has taken place.
Personally, I am holding fire here. I did manage to lighten up some of my holdings late last year and a little bit more in the first quarter, but obviously in hindsight I wish I had done more. I am between 1/2 and 2/3 invested at this point (in terms of my total stock investing capacity), and I'm ok with that. Obviously the last month has not been fun, but my time horizon is pretty long term so I am not beating myself up too much. With that said, I don't feel in any hurry to add right now. I thought inflation would have begun to calm down by now, and so far it hasn't. Meanwhile I can't say with confidence that we won't have a bad recession in this country.
My preference in times like this is to not try to be a hero and "pick the bottom" but rather to wait until things stabilize and consider adding when the outlook is a little more certain. And if stuff just goes straight up from here, I feel like I have enough in the portfolio where I won't feel like I'm missing out. I'm just in wait and see mode. I think there is way too much certainty to be heavily invested right now.
Heard on the radio yesterday that the market has shed an estimated 17 trillion since the beginning of the year. That's a hard lick no matter who has money in there from the little guy to the huge financial institutions. Today was a bounce back day and hopefully is the beginning of market recovery
Quote from: gregf on March 15, 2022, 06:08:31 PM
Bob, ( or any others)what's your take on the 4% rule of withdrawing your money? He's my scenario. During the pandemic, we had 3 coworkers about 50 all die within one month. A good friend of mine, 50 at the time, up and quit at this point. He and his wife pooled all their money and a plan to draw 7% indefinitely if the past returns continue.
My plan is to budget 50% retirement with my pension and to draw 5 to 6% from 401k for the rest. More money comes in when I can collect social security. Also, if my returns do poorly. I dont anticipate spending lavishly when I'm 75.
Anybody else have advice on withdrawal rate?
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Financial Advisor here 30 years of experience.
The 4% withdrawal rate is based on living until age 95 with 2% inflation and 5% growth rate. I
Todge, thanks for your reply. It truly lines up with advice and research I have done. The sessions I had chatting with a reputable advisor were extremely helpful to me as well.
As I mentioned before, if I run down some of my principle from 55 to 80 years of age, I'm ok with that choice to pair back spending if need be. Hopefully I can leave my full principle to my children. However, my view is to enjoy as many days of sunrise as the good Lord allows.
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Good quick WSJ article on what Berkshire Hathaway is up to. I always like to know what the big man is thinking during tricky times:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffett-spends-big-as-stock-market-sells-off-11652589031?mod=hp_lead_pos5
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 16, 2022, 05:26:31 PM
Good quick WSJ article on what Berkshire Hathaway is up to. I always like to know what the big man is thinking during tricky times:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffett-spends-big-as-stock-market-sells-off-11652589031?mod=hp_lead_pos5
It's behind a paywall, so what is WB up to?
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Hey Ted
I'm 76, should I be squirreling or spending ~X( ~X( ~X( ~X( ~X( ~X(
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 16, 2022, 05:51:46 PM
It's behind a paywall, so what is WB up to?
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My apologies. I should have thought of that.
They have been aggressively buying stocks in recent weeks, after coming out of 2021 with large cash balances. In particular they seem focused on energy stocks, having bought Chevron and Occidental Petroleum. Seems they like these stocks as they act as inflation hedges and also typically pay nice dividends. They have also added financial stocks, which also pay decent dividends and seem to have attractive valuations.
The article talks about how one of Buffett's long term mantras is to "be greedy when others are being fearful and be fearful when others are being greedy."
While I was not going to copy and paste the article for obvious reasons, here is a segment that captures the essence:
Energy stocks also offer two characteristics that Mr. Buffett has traditionally gravitated toward: low valuations, as well as shareholder returns in the form of buybacks and dividends, said Jim Shanahan, senior equity research analyst at Edward Jones.
Dividend-paying stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, in part as investors whipsawed by market volatility have sought out stocks that can offer steady cash returns.
Quote from: LennG on May 16, 2022, 06:44:42 PM
Hey Ted
I'm 76, should I be squirreling or spending ~X( ~X( ~X( ~X( ~X( ~X(
Lol - I don
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 16, 2022, 08:04:18 PM
My apologies. I should have thought of that.
They have been aggressively buying stocks in recent weeks, after coming out of 2021 with large cash balances. In particular they seem focused on energy stocks, having bought Chevron and Occidental Petroleum. Seems they like these stocks as they act as inflation hedges and also typically pay nice dividends. They have also added financial stocks, which also pay decent dividends and seem to have attractive valuations.
The article talks about how one of Buffett's long term mantras is to "be greedy when others are being fearful and be fearful when others are being greedy."
While I was not going to copy and paste the article for obvious reasons, here is a segment that captures the essence:
Energy stocks also offer two characteristics that Mr. Buffett has traditionally gravitated toward: low valuations, as well as shareholder returns in the form of buybacks and dividends, said Jim Shanahan, senior equity research analyst at Edward Jones.
Dividend-paying stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, in part as investors whipsawed by market volatility have sought out stocks that can offer steady cash returns.
They make mistakes just like everyone else. Also, Berkshire-Hathaway really got burned on the Wells Fargo fiasco and have no unloaded the last of their holdings. Bob
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 17, 2022, 08:38:36 AM
Thanks,
I have some Chevron, I love dividend paying stocks, and I just bought a bank ETF. So I guess I might be going in the right direction
It's hard to judge long term return with dividends I want to say phillips 66 does about 4% a year. I only keep about 10% in my company stock P66. Excepting this last year, my biggest investment fund VPMAX far outpaces my oil stock return when dividends are added. I usually jusmdge investments based on 5 year return total.
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what do people think of Catherine Woods and the funds she manages?
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 23, 2022, 01:01:11 PM
what do people think of Catherine Woods and the funds she manages?
For the last few years she was the next Warren Buffet. Now she has fallen like a rock and her portfolios look a lot like those who put their money in meme stocks. She has been tech heavy and aggressive and has ridden that wave, but it has cost her much in the past few months. I think of her as a fallen rock star
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on May 23, 2022, 01:09:46 PM
For the last few years she was the next Warren Buffet. Now she has fallen like a rock and her portfolios look a lot like those who put their money in meme stocks. She has been tech heavy and aggressive and has ridden that wave, but it has cost her much in the past few months. I think of her as a fallen rock star
Personally, I think there were a couple of things at play. First, it's easy to look like a superstar in a bull market. Second and more importantly I think she hit it out of the park on a few of her picks and things sort of snowballed. About a year ago on advice from a savvy investor friend of mine, I looked into her funds. At that point in time, it appeared that the massive money that was following her at that point was doing more to move the needle on the stocks she picked than the companies who were represented by the stock. In other words, when she picked a company, everyone wanted to be part of it, driving up the price, plus her funds were so big that she the fund's purchasing power alone would impact the stock
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 23, 2022, 01:15:52 PM
Personally, I think there were a couple of things at play. First, it's easy to look like a superstar in a bull market. Second and more importantly I think she hit it out of the park on a few of her picks and things sort of snowballed. About a year ago on advice from a savvy investor friend of mine, I looked into her funds. At that point in time, it appeared that the massive money that was following her at that point was doing more to move the needle on the stocks she picked than the companies who were represented by the stock. In other words, when she picked a company, everyone wanted to be part of it, driving up the price, plus her funds were so big that she the fund's purchasing power alone would impact the stock
Your friend is spot on IMHO! I know several people who would buy a stock she picked knowing full well the wave was created by her monetary input and her followers. And after she would buy a few million shares, a lot of techies and meme stock followers poured in from nowhere wanting to catch the wave - a wave she created and that was the only reason there was a wave. Made her look like a genius. But all that has changed since all big fund companies are looking ONLY at value and a lot of meme followers have gone belly up after getting their margin calls. I remember when she bought millions in SKLZ last year and I was going to buy some to ride her wave but decided against it because I didn't see the company as going anywhere. She has since dumped a lot of it. Another stock she propped up with her own funds was NVTA - a medical genetics company, which I bought and sold a couple of times, but have since avoided all pharm and medical companies since last summer...dittos with crypto. NVTA is down nearly 80% since she bought about a half billion worth. I don't know if she can recover as a lot of wealthy folks putting their money in her hands are taking it back out and putting it in Blackrock or some other conservative fund
(https://i.postimg.cc/yYw8KHx1/2229192c659d827324dc90f5271d0f6e.jpg) (https://postimages.org/) (https://i.postimg.cc/PqMX1v4J/rimshot.gif) (https://postimages.org/)
A stockbroker is someone who invests other people's money until it is all gone - Woody Allen.
Quote from: Bob In PA on May 23, 2022, 03:26:51 PM
A stockbroker is someone who invests other people's money until it is all gone - Woody Allen.
:laugh:
Are there even people left who call themselves "stockbrokers" :hmm:
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 23, 2022, 05:13:44 PM
Are there even people left who call themselves "stockbrokers" :hmm:
That's a good question. I bought stock through a stockbroker in Ithaca back in the late 70's because that was how you did it...the only way if I recall...and the broker got a commission. Now painless and no commission buying and selling is pretty much only done on electronic trading platforms on the internet, I can't imagine someone making money as a broker - maybe as an advisor, but I don't have one of those :-??
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on May 23, 2022, 05:39:44 PM
That's a good question. I bought stock through a stockbroker in Ithaca back in the late 70's because that was how you did it...the only way if I recall...and the broker got a commission. Now painless and no commission buying and selling is pretty much only done on electronic trading platforms on the internet, I can't imagine someone making money as a broker - maybe as an advisor, but I don't have one of those :-??
A little after 2000, I went back to school to learn computer networking. One of the guys in my class was a stockbroker. Back then, he saw the handwriting on the wall in terms of his profession and oddly enough wanted to be part of what eliminated his job (improvements in computers and networking)
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 24, 2022, 10:34:19 AM
A little after 2000, I went back to school to learn computer networking. One of the guys in my class was a stockbroker. Back then, he saw the handwriting on the wall in terms of his profession and oddly enough wanted to be part of what eliminated his job (improvements in computers and networking)
Smart guy. One thing taught in management classes in school is to always look to the future for change. The most common example was the largest buggy whip company in America. At the turn of the century, automobiles were starting to show up, but the company did not believe cars would ever fully replace horse and buggy so the CEO built bigger factories to produce more buggy whips anticipating a surge in growth as population growth was rampant. They went bankrupt.
I live near a factory that was the most profitable and largest company in the county called "Smith Corona". I knew plenty of people who worked there or had worked there as it was a huge operation that hired thousands of workers. In the 80's, company management did not believe that personal computers would ever make the typewriter obsolete. By the time they realized it, it was too late. They tried to salvage the company by coming out with a "word processor typewriter" with a small screen, keyboard, and their own word processing software. They sold a few before going belly up and Smith Corona is no more...at least as a typewriter manufacturer. The salvaged some of the business by becoming a thermal label producing company. Nothing like their past when they were typewriter king
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on May 24, 2022, 10:51:36 AM
Smart guy. One thing taught in management classes in school is to always look to the future for change. The most common example was the largest buggy whip company in America. At the turn of the century, automobiles were starting to show up, but the company did not believe cars would ever fully replace horse and buggy so the CEO built bigger factories to produce more buggy whips anticipating a surge in growth as population growth was rampant. They went bankrupt.
I live near a factory that was the most profitable and largest company in the county called "Smith Corona". I knew plenty of people who worked there or had worked there as it was a huge operation that hired thousands of workers. In the 80's, company management did not believe that personal computers would ever make the typewriter obsolete. By the time they realized it, it was too late. They tried to salvage the company by coming out with a "word processor typewriter" with a small screen, keyboard, and their own word processing software. They sold a few before going belly up and Smith Corona is no more...at least as a typewriter manufacturer. The salvaged some of the business by becoming a thermal label producing company. Nothing like their past when they were typewriter king
A couple of others:
Kodak, failed to see the end of film cameras. Their expertise could have given them a leg up in the printer industry (especially photo printers).
Sears- this one kills me. They had all the means to be Amazon before there was an Amazon. They had the catalog system, which isn't much different than ordering online, and the warehouse and distribution system. I mean looking back you would have thought of all retailers Sears would have had the easiest time not only adapting to E-commerce but thriving as an early entry
Sears is an outstanding example, but IMO an even bigger corporate blunder was IBM.
They "surrendered" the entire field of personal computer operating systems to Microsoft, and entered into a truly HORRIBLE deal.
If I had owned IBM stock back then I'd have chartered a plane to their corporate headquarters... (and taken a gun with me? lol).
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on May 24, 2022, 11:22:43 AM
Sears is an outstanding example, but IMO an even bigger corporate blunder was IBM.
They "surrendered" the entire field of personal computer operating systems to Microsoft, and entered into a truly HORRIBLE deal.
If I had owned IBM stock back then I'd have chartered a plane to their corporate headquarters... (and taken a gun with me? lol).
Bob
It's sort of interesting. By its very nature, IBM was a forward-looking company in the tech field. Their blunder wasn't in not seeing the future of the PC but in failing to recognize the real value was in the operating system (at the time DOS which eventually became Windows) rather than in the hardware and the making of the actual computers. So unlike most of the other examples where the companies failed to hop on the future train, IBM simply got on the wrong train.
I will tell you, I wonder if oil companies will be the next of the corporate dinosaurs. I own stock in Chevron and I often debate when to sell it. I see the future in electric vehicles and these sky-high oil prices are only going to accelerate that trend, in my opinion. I also own a gas pipeline stock and a stock that ships LNG but I think natural gas will last longer than oil which will still have demand, just at a much lower level.
Quote from: Bob In PA on May 24, 2022, 11:22:43 AM
Sears is an outstanding example, but IMO an even bigger corporate blunder was IBM.
They "surrendered" the entire field of personal computer operating systems to Microsoft, and entered into a truly HORRIBLE deal.
If I had owned IBM stock back then I'd have chartered a plane to their corporate headquarters... (and taken a gun with me? lol).
Bob
I have a lot of insight to IBM as it started in Broome county where I've spent most of my life. My Dad was born and raised in Endicott and used to throw snowballs at Tom Watson who would occasionally throw a snowball back at him and laugh. The company I worked for for years was Universal Instruments Corp. (computerized and automated PC Board populating machinery) which was invented at IBM who then wanted out of the business and handed it to Universal who had been subcontracting the machines anyway and by the mid-90's, Universal had itself become a Fortune 500 company in which much of its management came from and emulated Kodak and Xerox out of Rochester. In the 80's, IBM had around 20,000 employees in Endicott and was the largest company in Broome county. By 2000, it had about 500 employees, by 2010, about a hundred. After the Watson family died off and they put the company in the hands of Lou Gerstner (CEO of Nabisco), IBM went from the best company in the country to work for to one of the worst. Gerstner took Jack Welch's philosophy hook, line, and sinker - "lean and mean" - and started getting rid of employees, cutting wages and benefits, cutting products that weren't extremely profitable, and decided that "main frames were the future" and the PC business too competitive and unprofitable. He was wrong. Their software engineers were more advanced than Microsoft, but didn't feel software was the future...really bad decision.
Regardless, ninety percent of every millionaire in Broome, Cortland, Tioga, and Delaware counties as of the late 90's came as a result of working for IBM and buying their stock at a discount back in the late 50's to the 70's. My uncle was one of them. Now the handful of employees that still work for them make McDonald's wages and have few benefits and the company is a shadow of its former self.
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 24, 2022, 12:12:05 PM
I will tell you, I wonder if oil companies will be the next of the corporate dinosaurs.
Rich: IMO not going to happen. Why not?
The vast majority of oil companies (I don't know for sure about Chevron) saw the handwriting on the wall long ago and are working to establish a presence (whether dominant or not) in alternative energy.
That IMO is even more true of the non-US-based companies (which are some of the largest in the world).
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on May 24, 2022, 12:30:23 PM
Rich: IMO not going to happen. Why not?
The vast majority of oil companies (I don't know for sure about Chevron) saw the handwriting on the wall long ago and are working to establish a presence (whether dominant or not) in alternative energy.
That IMO is even more true of the non-US-based companies (which are some of the largest in the world).
Bob
Another example of this is the popularity of e-cigarettes (electronic vaping) that has taken the country by storm. What most people do not know, is that companies like Philip Morris, Altria Group Inc., Reynolds American Inc. (the largest cigarette makers in the U.S.) have bought out most of the vaping companies
And another...auto manufacturers are pumping tens of billions into electric vehicle development
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on May 24, 2022, 12:38:54 PM
Another example of this is the popularity of e-cigarettes (electronic vaping) that has taken the country by storm. What most people do not know, is that companies like Philip Morris, Altria Group Inc., Reynolds American Inc. (the largest cigarette makers in the U.S.) have bought out most of the vaping companies
And another...auto manufacturers are pumping tens of billions into electric vehicle development
I am watching with curiosity (not invested) in how Tesla does. I mean I see plenty of them on the road, but early pioneers are not always the dominant ones long-term (I think we are seeing that with Netflix). Right now Telsa has the electric car market pretty much to itself. I wonder how they will do when the big boys show up and get serious about competing in the electric vehicle space.
I'm ready to reply to Rich's question somewhere above asking, essentially, what now... is this the "bottom?" Sadly (I guess), I believe the market will go down another 10% before finding a secure stopping point.
I've been stalling for a while (about a week), not wanting to be the bearer of bad news. I've been involved directly in the stock market since I was 18 years old (Nixon era... "a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away...").
And I've applied everything I've learned in all those many years to making that prognostication... so, as it turns out, there is some very VERY good news for all of you... I'm usually wrong about these things. LOL
Bob
PS. Why did I say "I guess" above? If you have significant $$$ on the sidelines, the farther prices come down before the dive ends, the more numerous true bargains will be (increasing the odds of picking big winners).
Well, I'm certainly ready for a rebound. Sitting on the sidelines is killing me ~X(
Could be worse
(https://i.postimg.cc/9Mg78613/Billionaire-s-club.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Buffet makes money because he regards down markets as an opportunity to buy good companies at reasonable prices. He is not speculative and looks only at the long haul so he does not hold billions in tech, crypto, social media, etc.
As far as Tesla goes, I bought stock in the company a couple of years ago and got out. Common sense tells me that a start up car company cannot be worth many times more than all the car companies in the world combined (Toyota, GM, Ford, BMW, Benz, Volvo, VW, etc). Tesla has the capability of producing 1.05 million cars per year. The rest of the car companies produce over 79 million per year.
Stock Prices
Tesla (TSLA) 634.30 (was at 1229.91 on November 5, 2021 - down 40% since first of year)
Toyota (TM) 160.72
Mercedes-Benz Group AG (DDAIF) 68.82
General Motors (GM) 35.04
Ford (F) 12.42
Volkswagen AG (VWAGY) 19.75
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMWYY) 28.00
Stellantis N.V. (STLA) (Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citro
Ric,
I really like what Frisker is doing and what its goals are. Truly the type of company I would like to get behind. My only concern is I would feel a lot better if there were prototype models and the like. I would like them to be further along in terms of actually making a car. I mean usually, once you create prototypes there is testing and the like. I really don't see how they will be starting production in November. I can't help but feel the company may be overpromising. I mean to groundbreaking vehicles being designed from scratch with groundbreaking technologies. I just don't see how that can go smoothly
Good day in the Market. Maybe we've hit bottom and the rebound is finally starting (https://i.postimg.cc/3Jy0ZHtg/istockphoto-1307030625-170667a.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on May 26, 2022, 01:52:17 PM
Good day in the Market. Maybe we've hit bottom and the rebound is finally starting (https://i.postimg.cc/3Jy0ZHtg/istockphoto-1307030625-170667a.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
I was listening to a Motley Fool podcast yesterday. They were talking about the bad day we had on Tuesday where things tanked badly because SNAP (Snap Chat) lowered their guidance. The question the Podcasters asked was "how do we know this is a sign the economy is going into a recession rather than SNAP just messing up their guidance calculations? It seems the market is very skittish these days
In any bear market (or major correction), there is always what they call a "sucker's rally" somewhere in the MIDDLE of the process. I prefer to refer to it as a "false start" since we're on a football website lol.
I'm not saying (or not not saying) this is one, but the well-known phrase "let the buyer beware" should always be at the forefront of one's thinking at times like these (whether or not it is observed).
I don't know, but I do know if the rally continues through tomorrow, then it will merit serious consideration. If the market just goes right back down tomorrow, please refer to my previous post. Oy!!!!
Bob
Bob and Ric,
I am taking a cautious approach. I am mindful that one can never time the peak or the bottom of the market (at least consistently).
I want to see evidence that inflation's back has been broken before I will feel comfortable about the markets. Right now they are skittish. Worse there is a lot of talk in the media about recession which often can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So for now I am waiting on the sidelines and spending some time figuring out which companies and sectors I will want to buy when I think that things have stabilized.
I read a lot of stuff from a variety of financial institutions. Most fear a recession while Baron's calls a recession nearly inevitable because there are no more tools in the box to stave it off. If the fed raises rates faster, we go into a tail spin and usher in recession. On the other hand, if they don't, inflation might get much worse. Scary stuff. However, with trillions sitting on the sideline dwindling, sooner or later you'd think they have to jump back in as there's no where to stash the cash without losing because of runaway inflation. The bond market allows the wealth to dwindle more slowly than simply saving it and precious metals go up at a snail's pace not unlike bonds. I think the market is the only place left to hold one's value unless one wants to speculate in real estate
I just returned from town and noticed today that a couple of gas stations show their price over 5.00. That is really taking a huge bite out of my wallet as I drive a lot and typically go through a tank of gas a week. What used to cost me 22.00 to fill an empty tank (I have a little Kia Soul w/12 gal tank), now it costs me closer to 60.00 to fill that little hamster buggy...that adds up fast and I don't think it's going to get better any time soon and probably worse >:( 2
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on May 26, 2022, 03:41:33 PM
I read a lot of stuff from a variety of financial institutions. Most fear a recession while Baron's calls a recession nearly inevitable because there are no more tools in the box to stave it off. If the fed raises rates faster, we go into a tail spin and usher in recession. On the other hand, if they don't, inflation might get much worse. Scary stuff. However, with trillions sitting on the sideline dwindling, sooner or later you'd think they have to jump back in as there's no where to stash the cash without losing because of runaway inflation. The bond market allows the wealth to dwindle more slowly than simply saving it and precious metals go up at a snail's pace not unlike bonds. I think the market is the only place left to hold one's value unless one wants to speculate in real estate
I just returned from town and noticed today that a couple of gas stations show their price over 5.00. That is really taking a huge bite out of my wallet as I drive a lot and typically go through a tank of gas a week. What used to cost me 22.00 to fill an empty tank (I have a little Kia Soul w/12 gal tank), now it costs me closer to 60.00 to fill that little hamster buggy...that adds up fast and I don't think it's going to get better any time soon and probably worse >:( 2
I subscribe to Barrons. Lately I notice they tend to make the bad news banner headlines, while the good news gets relegated to side stories.
I'd say right now there is more bad news that good news. That could explain it. Bob
Good day thus far. I'm up 3.55% after going up just shy of 5% yesterday. Unfortunately, it doesn't begin to cover my losses :hurt: ...got a long way to go before I get back to where I was in November ~X(
I will probably pay for this comment, but man...I am having a hell of a day in the market. Best single day since late last year. Portfolio is up over 7% since this morning. My 35 shares of Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG) is on fire and Fisker nearly 8% already! Maybe we have seen the bottom and all that money sitting on the sidelines is being thrown back in...man I hope so
Today's jobs report showed job creation beat expectation and unemployment held a a good 3.6% which sort of quells concerns of a recession.
So what does the market do? DROP :crazy: :what:
This is why I don't trade options, why the market moves the way it does is a mystery to me
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 03, 2022, 10:09:10 AM
Today's jobs report showed job creation beat expectation and unemployment held a a good 3.6% which sort of quells concerns of a recession.
So what does the market do? DROP :crazy: :what:
This is why I don't trade options, why the market moves the way it does is a mystery to me
I have been urged repeatedly by friends to play the options market, but like you...I resist the temptation
One thing I've noticed over the years watching the market, is that the end of the week the market typically goes down. I attribute that (rightly or wrongly) to options being called. So even if the economic factors are going up, the market is going down as speculators are paying off or selling their options. It throws a monkey wrench into trying to predict the market. Damn those day traders ~X( :laugh:
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 03, 2022, 10:33:28 AM
I have been urged repeatedly by friends to play the options market, but like you...I resist the temptation
One thing I've noticed over the years watching the market, is that the end of the week the market typically goes down. I attribute that (rightly or wrongly) to options being called. So even if the economic factors are going up, the market is going down as speculators are paying off or selling their options. It throws a monkey wrench into trying to predict the market. Damn those day traders ~X( :laugh:
Although on the other hand, if there is a pattern where the market tends to typically go down at the end of the week, wouldn't that present an advantage to anyone looking to buy a stock or group of stocks who is trying to time which day to do it?
There
I can finally afford to buy a few shares of Amazon...LOL
Last Friday it was $2,447 a share - now $125.00 or so
(https://i.postimg.cc/3xpqhqwr/Clipboard01.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 06, 2022, 12:16:24 PM
I can finally afford to buy a few shares of Amazon...LOL
Last Friday it was $2,447 a share - now $125.00 or so
(https://i.postimg.cc/3xpqhqwr/Clipboard01.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
One thing about Amazon, it's more than an online store. Their Amazon Web Services (cloud computing) is a big part of their company.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 06, 2022, 12:19:05 PM
One thing about Amazon, it's more than an online store. Their Amazon Web Services (cloud computing) is a big part of their company.
Not to mention - a rocket company and the engines to send rockets to space
From arstechnica:
"Amazon on Tuesday announced the largest commercial launch deal ever. The company has finalized agreements with three different rocket companies for a total of 83 launches. The rockets will deploy a majority of Amazon's low-Earth-orbit constellation of broadband satellites.
With this deal, Amazon has acquired an extraordinary amount of medium- and heavy-lift launch capacity over the next five years, procuring launches from every major Western provider except for its direct satellite competitor, SpaceX. Aside from SpaceX, this purchase represents the vast majority of any "spare" launch capacity for larger rockets in the United States or Europe over the next half-decade..." https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/04/amazon-signs-blockbuster-launch-deal-for-its-satellite-megaconstellation/ (https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/04/amazon-signs-blockbuster-launch-deal-for-its-satellite-megaconstellation/)
what stocks or sectors are you waiting on buying with these market downturns?
Microsoft (because I just keep hearing good things and I think their Teams could push Zoom)
Costco- I always like their stock but it was too expensive
What do people think?
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 10, 2022, 02:12:02 PM
what stocks or sectors are you waiting on buying with these market downturns?
Microsoft (because I just keep hearing good things and I think their Teams could push Zoom)
Costco- I always like their stock but it was too expensive
What do people think?
As an anecdotal follow-up, I am finding the percentage of meetings/calls I do that are Zoom is steadily declining. TEAMS is definitely the most common substitute. I see WebEx from time to time but mainly TEAMS (when it's not Zoom). 18 months ago it would have been basically all Zoom.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 10, 2022, 02:12:02 PM
what stocks or sectors are you waiting on buying with these market downturns?
As for me, I'm doing very little buying. I bought two stocks last Monday: Wolfspeed (WOLF) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - makers of the drug Jemperli - earlier this week after reading an article that every test subject with cancer had been healed with the drug https://www.sciencealert.com/every-single-patient-in-this-small-experimental-drug-trial-saw-their-cancer-disappear (https://www.sciencealert.com/every-single-patient-in-this-small-experimental-drug-trial-saw-their-cancer-disappear). It went up about 6% the following day so I sold it. I thought it would possibly be one of those skyrocketing 200% kind of deals. When I saw it climb, but not out of this world, I sold it. Must be the news didn't make headlines throughout the stockholder giants. I didn't sell my WOLF stock because it went up a couple percent the next day, but is now down after yesterday and today. I'm really skittish with the market right now. Thought I was on to something for a minute with GSK ~X(
QuoteMicrosoft (because I just keep hearing good things and I think their Teams could push Zoom)
MSFT has slid about 25% since the beginning of the year. When the market finally bottoms out, it will be a good investment in my opinion. It's just that no one knows where the bottom is. Sucks!
QuoteCostco- I always like their stock but it was too expensive
I don't follow retail stocks. I owned Amazon and Walmart a year ago, but finally bailed. Walmart is having a really rough time right now. It was already down for the year about 10%, but crashed like the Hindenburg in mid-May. Not sure what the story is there
I am clueless as to what sectors have promise. I only own about 10 different stocks and like to keep it that way. I've been up to 20 stocks in my portfolio, but find it easier to follow 10 or less. I'm personally high on Fisker and PlugPower, but they haven't made me rich by any means. I'm holding long term. I tend to be tech heavy and follow the EV sector closely as well as companies that make processors and the companies that make the materials and machinery to make processors. I believe they are the future. I prefer to invest in chip makers in the U.S. as opposed to China/Taiwan because I never know what Xi is going to do and he can really rock the ship in a hurry. So I have some AMD and Nvidia stock. I also am holding onto PureStorage, Inc (PSTG) as they are a company that can store tons of electricity for entire cities to avoid blackouts. A lot of units have been sold in Texas recently
I bounce into petroleum companies every once in awhile. I like Marathon Oil, but haven't bought it since last year and hold no oil stocks. I still believe in my heart that EV is going to be the future and hopefully the stock in those companies takes off like Tesla. But after this year, I wouldn't hold my breath ~X(
I am considering hitting the electric car market hard via ETFs. The two I am looking at are
KARS (which focuses on the production of vehicles)
BATT (focuses on the lithium and batteries)
I think this spike in gas prices is the push needed to really make electric cars the future. The infrastructure bill has money for charging stations and I see more and more of a push in this direction.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 13, 2022, 08:29:55 AMI am considering hitting the electric car market hard via ETFs. The two I am looking at are
KARS (which focuses on the production of vehicles)
BATT (focuses on the lithium and batteries)
I think this spike in gas prices is the push needed to really make electric cars the future. The infrastructure bill has money for charging stations and I see more and more of a push in this direction.
ETFs are definitely an option in this crazy market - you don't get the wild swings you get with managing your own portfolio of individual stocks. But it's a little like watching grass grow...which isn't all that bad of an idea
I think the immediate future is all about energy switching to electric and not just in cars and trucks
When I was still working as an actual company employee, I had to visit Plug Power several times on business and was given a grand tour of the original plant in Latham (next to the Albany, NY airport). I was amazed. That was quite a few years ago and they were developing a unit (refrigerator size, but half as tall) that was outside of the house and it provided all the electricity needed to run everything and it's fuel source was water. Of course, the unit turned tap water into liquid hydrogen which then ran a motor to produce electricity. I was blown away and wanted one for my house
Ten years later they are producing huge tanks of liquid hydrogen to primarily run trucks, but also working on getting cars going on hydrogen (like the Toyota Mirai). Since I last visited the plant the company has built new factories (a huge one in Rochester) and in Europe. They are also developing stations to pump hydrogen into trucks as they cross the country. They have huge contracts with Amazon and Walmart, two companies that are building fleets of vans and trucks that run on hydrogen. There are huge tanks outside of Amazon and Walmart distribution centers that hold liquid hydrogen produced by Plug Power. It's a great story with a great future
The downside: They post serious losses every single year so the stock doesn't skyrocket like Tesla and the environmentalists are far more focused on EV's, lithium batteries, etc., rather than the extremely environmentally friendly hydrogen which has zero emissions and runs like gasoline powered engines. Thankfully, they have a lot of investors with deep pockets as well as government funded programs to keep the dream alive until it becomes profitable
Anyway - ten years from now Plug Power will be the hero of environmentalists everywhere. The source (water) for the fuel is unlimited and the exhaust recycles the water right back into the ecosystem. There are no huge environmental disastrous pits digging for the limited source of lithium or other materials needed for batteries. The problem is that it just takes so long to get all the infrastructure in place for it to be a viable alternative and electric vehicles have a huge jump start and everyone is on the EV bandwagon. Both alternatives to fossil fuels are great, but IMHO, hydrogen trumps battery powered EVs hands down. Unfortunately, I might not live long enough to see the world running on hydrogen :'(
https://www.plugpower.com/
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 13, 2022, 09:33:01 AMETFs are definitely an option in this crazy market - you don't get the wild swings you get with managing your own portfolio of individual stocks. But it's a little like watching grass grow...which isn't all that bad of an idea
I think the immediate future is all about energy switching to electric and not just in cars and trucks
When I was still working as an actual company employee, I had to visit Plug Power several times on business and was given a grand tour of the original plant in Latham (next to the Albany, NY airport). I was amazed. That was quite a few years ago and they were developing a unit (refrigerator size, but half as tall) that was outside of the house and it provided all the electricity needed to run everything and it's fuel source was water. Of course, the unit turned tap water into liquid hydrogen which then ran a motor to produce electricity. I was blown away and wanted one for my house
Ten years later they are producing huge tanks of liquid hydrogen to primarily run trucks, but also working on getting cars going on hydrogen (like the Toyota Mirai). Since I last visited the plant the company has built new factories (a huge one in Rochester) and in Europe. They are also developing stations to pump hydrogen into trucks as they cross the country. They have huge contracts with Amazon and Walmart, two companies that are building fleets of vans and trucks that run on hydrogen. There are huge tanks outside of Amazon and Walmart distribution centers that hold liquid hydrogen produced by Plug Power. It's a great story with a great future
The downside: They post serious losses every single year so the stock doesn't skyrocket like Tesla and the environmentalists are far more focused on EV's, lithium batteries, etc., rather than the extremely environmentally friendly hydrogen which has zero emissions and runs like gasoline powered engines. Thankfully, they have a lot of investors with deep pockets as well as government funded programs to keep the dream alive until it becomes profitable
Anyway - ten years from now Plug Power will be the hero of environmentalists everywhere. The source (water) for the fuel is unlimited and the exhaust recycles the water right back into the ecosystem. There are no huge environmental disastrous pits digging for the limited source of lithium or other materials needed for batteries. The problem is that it just takes so long to get all the infrastructure in place for it to be a viable alternative and electric vehicles have a huge jump start and everyone is on the EV bandwagon. Both alternatives to fossil fuels are great, but IMHO, hydrogen trumps battery powered EVs hands down. Unfortunately, I might not live long enough to see the world running on hydrogen :'(
https://www.plugpower.com/
For what it's worth, hydrogen should be considered in the same way one views batteries. It takes energy to create hydrogen (by splitting water, H2O, into hydrogen and Oxygen molecules). As Ric pointed out, hydrogen is an alternative to batteries and doesn't require the lithium that is in short supply.
I think what is holding back hydrogen is the lack of infrastructure. Electric infrastructure is being built out and you can see charging stations at various locations. Hydrogen is much less so.
I think the advantage of hydrogen is that one can refuel hydrogen quicker than one can recharge a lithium battery vehicle.
Ugliness in the markets the past couple days. Crytpo is receiving a real comeuppance. No doubt this sector has had corrections that have been worse than this before, but the industry has grown a lot since the last one and a lot of people got very invested during the pandemic.
It's hard to see stocks having a sustainable rally (beyond a week or two) until we start to see inflation beginning to noticeably tick down.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 13, 2022, 10:01:44 AMUgliness in the markets the past couple days. Crytpo is receiving a real comeuppance. No doubt this sector has had corrections that have been worse than this before, but the industry has grown a lot since the last one and a lot of people got very invested during the pandemic.
It's hard to see stocks having a sustainable rally (beyond a week or two) until we start to see inflation beginning to noticeably tick down.
I listen to a show this weekend. The issue with Bitcoin was it use to not be corollated with the markets. In other words, it didn't rise and fall along with the stock market. Now that institutional buyers and funds are buying bitcoin like they would an emerging market stock, crypto pretty much rises and falls in line with the market as the big players are treating bitcoin like another market sector rather than a separate asset class
I made a vow to myself last summer to never invest in crypto or drug companies. I've broken that vow now and then with drug companies, but not crypto. Crypto scares the crap out of me
The one downside of many of the electric-car-related ETFs is they contain Tesla. Tesla was bought too high in price and is taking a major beating since Musk used Tesla money to buy $1.5 billion in bit coins (which is major tanking)
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 13, 2022, 10:35:13 AMThe one downside of many of the electric-car-related ETFs is they contain Tesla. Tesla was bought too high in price and is taking a major beating since Musk used Tesla money to buy $1.5 billion in bit coins (which is major tanking)
The stock price for Tesla has never made sense. It's stock value is many times more than all the car companies in the world combined. The price has been hyped for a long time by memes and young speculators...sorta like Gamestop being worth twice as much as Walmart...LOL. I still laugh every time I go to the local Walmart where it's practically impossible to find a decent parking spot among the hundreds of cars and when I leave, there is a very small shop across the street called Gamestop that almost never has a car parked out front. Then I always think about how it's worth more than Walmart to a particular group of investors...unbelievable
As far as Tesla goes, they are betting on Musk in general, not so much the car company. In my opinion anyway for what it's worth
crypto is getting a massive beat down today. I suspect part of the problem is the feature so many people liked (it's not regulated) is coming back to bite investors in the arse.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-firm-celsius-pauses-all-transfers-withdrawals-between-accounts-2022-06-13/
(https://i.postimg.cc/rpkV1DJ3/15730e8f-9bc8-2ab0-8e51-96617fa4c1ad.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/LJxFR6G3)
Bitcoin and Crypto are still getting hammered. I wonder if people realized that if they have their assets in cash they can keep it in ensured accounts that get interest (which is rising) VS with Crypto where you just keep it in the cyber equivalent of under your mattress
Do any of you guys invest in Reits? If so, which one?
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 18, 2022, 08:45:16 AMDo any of you guys invest in Reits? If so, which one?
I did last year through an EFT, but haven't since last summer. Real estate is boom or bust in many cases and once inflation took hold, I bailed. I really thought energy alternatives and semiconductor shortages were the sectors that were going to shine. I was wrong. Been wrong an awful lot this year and my portfolio looks like a dumpster fire for the most part ~X(
(https://i.postimg.cc/PJPP7Vm3/file.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 18, 2022, 10:02:16 AMI did last year through an EFT, but haven't since last summer. Real estate is boom or bust in many cases and once inflation took hold, I bailed. I really thought energy alternatives and semiconductor shortages were the sectors that were going to shine. I was wrong. Been wrong an awful lot this year and my portfolio looks like a dumpster fire for the most part ~X(
You and pretty much everyone else. It sure has been ugly, and I doubt it's over at this point.
Just one guy's view... for those who have been patiently waiting, keep waiting patiently. LOL
Investors are already nibbling (or considering it) but an event this big takes a while for the dust to settle.
There will be multiple "false starts" after which a solid (or better) opportunity will be presented.
Bob
Covid and post-Covid (at least in terms of restrictions) is the sort of transformative event that can make people who can see the trends very wealthy.
My energy stocks are doing very well, but I think long-term EV, alternative energy, and electric cars will boom.
I don't see the trend of working from home to be a significant long-term trend, I think there will be some working from home, but I don't see it being more than maybe 10%
I mentioned REITs; I think residential, medical, long-term care, storage, and cell tower REITs will do well. I believe mortgage REITs will struggle, as will commercial real estate (with the exception of local convenience), I don't see much future in industrial. I think data centers will still do well, but I don't think we will see the growth they have enjoyed. Farmland REITs will continue to do well.
I think streaming will continue to erode viewers from traditional broadcast TV. I think cable is going to continue their fighting retreat. I think Disney and HBO will be the leaders in streaming (I wouldn't count on Paramount)
I think Anheuser-Busch InBev is a good option as I think the opening up of society should increase beer consumption (as will the possible recession)
I think we will see a boost in AI, and at some point, semi-conductors will take off.
For the shorter term or for people in retirement, high dividend stocks with wide moats is the safest harbor.
I think when the interest rate increases reach a point where they will stop, that will be a great opportunity to grab a good preferred stock ETF yielding nice dividends.
I think the war on cash will continue, and I think that people are going to want more and more things delivered to them, and less and less will they go out to grab things.
short term, I think any industry in the wedding business is a good buy as there is a backlog of weddings (followed in a couple of years by a likely baby boom)
I think long-term, there is a promising future in home building as there is an overall shortage of homes, but the current mortgage rates are an issue.
Quote from: Bob In PA on June 18, 2022, 10:49:34 AMJust one guy's view... for those who have been patiently waiting, keep waiting patiently. LOL
Investors are already nibbling (or considering it) but an event this big takes a while for the dust to settle.
There will be multiple "false starts" after which a solid (or better) opportunity will be presented.
Bob
Do you know what's funny, Bob? Barron's which was practically cheerleading for a bear market is now running banner articles how the turnaround is just around the corner
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 19, 2022, 07:17:44 AMDo you know what's funny, Bob? Barron's which was practically cheerleading for a bear market is now running banner articles how the turnaround is just around the corner
Rich: By sheer coincidence, I signed up about a week ago for a month of Barron's on-line, so I saw (and was stunned by) the gigantic front-page image they displayed this week... I can't reproduce it, but here is the text:
Cover image
The Selloff Will Eventually End. You Can Bet On It.
Plenty can still go wrong for stocks. But a prime buying opportunity might be just around the corner.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp500-51655511568?mod=hp_HERO
Bob
I will add one other thing to my trends thoughts. While I think EVs and renewable energy is the wave of the future, I don't see fossil fuels tanking anytime soon with the exception of coal which is dirty and a PITA to handle and burn.
The demand for energy is climbing at a rate that alternative energy doesn't keep up
As for EV vehicles, I will say I have heard two things lately that suggest that I may be overly optimistic in my forecast of that means of transportation. One is the group that forecasts EV sales downgraded their projections a little bit and second I saw a survey that suggests gas prices don't play a large role in someone's decision to purchase an EV. Range and charging stations along with price are the drivers. Of course, with the bulk of the current EVs being on the luxury end, I guess gas prices don't make a world of difference when you are talking vehicles in the near $50K range and higher.
While I see more charging facilities now than say 10 years ago, it's not like I am seeing new charging stations being built anywhere (even though I believe the infrastructure bill that was passed includes funding for more such stations)
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 19, 2022, 08:16:05 AMI will add one other thing to my trends thoughts. While I think EVs and renewable energy is the wave of the future, I don't see fossil fuels tanking anytime soon with the exception of coal which is dirty and a PITA to handle and burn.
The demand for energy is climbing at a rate that alternative energy doesn't keep up
As for EV vehicles, I will say I have heard two things lately that suggest that I may be overly optimistic in my forecast of that means of transportation. One is the group that forecasts EV sales downgraded their projections a little bit and second I saw a survey that suggests gas prices don't play a large role in someone's decision to purchase an EV. Range and charging stations along with price are the drivers. Of course, with the bulk of the current EVs being on the luxury end, I guess gas prices don't make a world of difference when you are talking vehicles in the near $50K range and higher.
While I see more charging facilities now than say 10 years ago, it's not like I am seeing new charging stations being built anywhere (even though I believe the infrastructure bill that was passed includes funding for more such stations)
When the Electric Vehicle Freedom Act (EV Freedom Act H.R. 5770) was passed, the goal was to establish a network of EV charging stations (500,000 new stations) I jumped all over EVgo, Chargepoint, Volta, and Wall Box (home charging stations) and stocks in those companies jumped between 25 - 100% in the following days. I felt like a genius for getting on board ahead of the rush to buy. The prices started returning towards a downward trend as savvy buyers took their profits. I did not :( Since then, the stock prices of the companies building the stations have steadily gone back down to where they were before the "Great Surge" (a little pun on electricity and the stock market). I thought for sure the prices would hold and steadily rise (hopefully like Tesla) - it did not
It's just impossible to forecast what's going to happen in the market the last few months. Investors are a skittish bunch and bail on any news that they might lose some money. The fed tampering with rates to try and stall inflation has been a killer
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 19, 2022, 09:39:06 AMWhen the Electric Vehicle Freedom Act (EV Freedom Act H.R. 5770) was passed, the goal was to establish a network of EV charging stations (500,000 new stations) I jumped all over EVgo, Chargepoint, Volta, and Wall Box (home charging stations) and stocks in those companies jumped between 25 - 100% in the following days. I felt like a genius for getting on board ahead of the rush to buy. The prices started returning towards a downward trend as savvy buyers took their profits. I did not :( Since then, the stock prices of the companies building the stations have steadily gone back down to where they were before the "Great Surge" (a little pun on electricity and the stock market). I thought for sure the prices would hold and steadily rise (hopefully like Tesla) - it did not
It's just impossible to forecast what's going to happen in the market the last few months. Investors are a skittish bunch and bail on any news that they might lose some money. The fed tampering with rates to try and stall inflation has been a killer
I think that EVs will eventually become the domain of the current auto makers rather than the upstart EV companies.
While I have posted the optimistic side of things, some of the negatives.
For all the talk of vehicles (and I believe there is and will be a shortage), interest rates will make buying and leasing more expensive
selling homes will be slowed down by rising interest rates (even as there is a housing shortage in the US)
rising fuel prices will cut into consumer discretionary spending
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 20, 2022, 02:32:23 PMWhile I have posted the optimistic side of things, some of the negatives.
For all the talk of vehicles (and I believe there is and will be a shortage), interest rates will make buying and leasing more expensive
selling homes will be slowed down by rising interest rates (even as there is a housing shortage in the US)
rising fuel prices will cut into consumer discretionary spending
Add to that:
The stock market will continue to be run by the bears shedding trillions of dollars more. A couple of weeks ago it had shed 17 trillion since January 1st, so I don't know what it is now, but I know that tech stocks shed a trillion a day for the last three trading days and the S&P alone has shed 9.3 trillion all by it's lonesome - and the S&P is doing quite a bit better than the NASDAQ Composite. The DJ Industrial has fared the best losing only 13%, but has many trillions more invested there than either the S&P or Nasdaq :hurt: :hurt: :hurt:
Retirement funds have shed 3 trillion thus far :crazy:
:boooo:
Hate to even mention it as I will put a curse on it, but my portfolio is up 16% so far this morning. Probably the kiss of death to even admit it :crazy:
All of my stocks are up with FLNC, Plug, and FSR leading the way - fingers crossed
@Jolly Blue Giant The markets are doing well today. For what it's worth, Barrons is indicating that they don't think this is the bottom.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 21, 2022, 03:00:26 PM@Jolly Blue Giant
The markets are doing well today. For what it's worth, Barrons is indicating that they don't think this is the bottom.
I personally don't trust any rally (beyond maybe a week or two) until inflation shows decisive signs of coming back down.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 21, 2022, 03:10:17 PMI personally don't trust any rally (beyond maybe a week or two) until inflation shows decisive signs of coming back down.
If by some miracle the Russian war stops, I could see a huge and sudden rally. Short of that, I tend to agree with you, we need to hear a report saying inflation dropped signficantly
I saw a headline for a Barron's article saying that Bitcoin is undervalued, according to a model.
My thought- "how in the F**K can an imaginary currency be "undervalued"???" This isn't a company with intrinsic value. Even gold whose value is nearly entirely speculative has intrinsic value (as a commodity). Some encrypted data on the web only has the value people make it out to be.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 22, 2022, 09:13:29 AMI saw a headline for a Barron's article saying that Bitcoin is undervalued, according to a model.
My thought- "how in the F**K can an imaginary currency be "undervalued"??? This isn't a company with intrinsic value. Even gold whose value is nearly entirely speculative has intrinsic value (as a commodity). Some encrypted data on the web only has the value people make it out to be.
I fully agree. It must be some sort of technical model and not anything based on fundamentals.
I don't pretend to understand crypto currency...the mining :-?? the digital wallet :-?? the limited number of digital coins :-??
WTH
Regardless, a lot of very wealthy people invest in it. Saquon Barkley has ALL his endorsement money paid to him in crypto. QB Trevor Lawrence had his entire 22 million signing bonus paid to him in crypto, and the list of star players across the globe have taken some of their salary in crypto
https://twitter.com/DavidFurones_/status/1539290522736545794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1539290522736545794%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-2375900624267878316.ampproject.net%2F2206071918001%2Fframe.html
When it comes to our very own currency though, more than ninety percent is digital (nothing more than a number on a ledger on a computer) and there isn't even paper money to back it up (let alone gold). If every citizen in this country went to the bank to retrieve their savings in cold hard cash, banks and our monetary system would crash because it isn't there in the first place. There is less than 10% of all American dollars in the form of currency. Hard to wrap my head around the whole monetary system let alone crypto :-??
I sometimes swear the market pundits are bipolar. After months of shouting about how inflation is killing us. Barron's (a publication I subscribe to and is well regarded) had this headline
Commodity Prices Are Dropping. Why That's a Trouble Sign.
Wheat, copper, and oil futures are all down. Strategists blame the declines on waning demand, which reflects recession worries.
I'm sorry but in light of all the inflation issues, why is this bad????
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 28, 2022, 10:36:26 AMI sometimes swear the market pundits are bipolar. After months of shouting about how inflation is killing us. Barron's (a publication I subscribe to and is well regarded) had this headline
Commodity Prices Are Dropping. Why That's a Trouble Sign.
Wheat, copper, and oil futures are all down. Strategists blame the declines on waning demand, which reflects recession worries.
I'm sorry but in light of all the inflation issues, why is this bad????
Personally, I don't think the falling costs of commodities is a bad thing...unless of course, you own a company producing one of those commodities and you're already running on tight budget...lol
Bottom line, inflation is an economic killer across the board. The nation's economy sheds trillions of dollars in wealth and the further down the pipeline from the wealthiest to the poorest, the pain is worse - and especially hard on the blue collar working class
I gave up trying to figure out how the economic downturn is effecting the market place and just trying to make my own ends meet. I hope there will be an equivalent raise in social security payments to keep up with inflation, but I don't hold my breath. I'll be 70 years old in a few months and might have to go back to work. The good news is (I guess) is that flippin burgers pays 15 an hour and stocking shelves at a retail store pays 18 and above an hour :o
On the bright side, my son called a few minutes ago to tell me I am going to get a new granddaughter :nanner:
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 28, 2022, 10:56:44 AMPersonally, I don't think the falling costs of commodities is a bad thing...unless of course, you own a company producing one of those commodities and you're already running on tight budget...lol
Bottom line, inflation is an economic killer across the board. The nation's economy sheds trillions of dollars in wealth and the further down the pipeline from the wealthiest to the poorest, the pain is worse - and especially hard on the blue collar working class
I gave up trying to figure out how the economic downturn is effecting the market place and just trying to make my own ends meet. I hope there will be an equivalent raise in social security payments to keep up with inflation, but I don't hold my breath. I'll be 70 years old in a few months and might have to go back to work. The good news is (I guess) is that flippin burgers pays 15 an hour and stocking shelves at a retail store pays 18 and above an hour :o
On the bright side, my son called a few minutes ago to tell me I am going to get a new granddaughter :nanner:
Congrats, Ric on the new granddaughter
Personally, I think the article headline I posted was full of crap. I mean the feds have been raising rates to cool off the economy and bring inflation under control. We start to see their efforts pay off, and the article tries to spin that like it's a bad thing.
Quote from: MightyGiants on June 28, 2022, 11:00:23 AMCongrats, Ric on the new granddaughter
Personally, I think the article headline I posted was full of crap. I mean the feds have been raising rates to cool off the economy and bring inflation under control. We start to see their efforts pay off, and the article tries to spin that like it's a bad thing.
I like to read a lot of different takes on the economy mainly because of my stocks. I find out that whenever a big publication or a big bank downplays a stock or changes their advice from "buy" to "sell"...it's because they are preparing to buy and want the price to drop first (sadly, it works). As soon as they load up on the stock at the lower price a new article comes out that it is now a "buy" or "strong buy" and the manipulators behind the stories are simply working the masses for their own benefit. That's why it's best to pick healthy stocks and hold long - don't try to second guess everything and play into the games of the super rich...who right now, are trying to recover their own losses. It's an insider's game and many times, the insider doesn't even have a name or a face because it's likely to be a super computer with proven algorithms that play the game for them. It sucks. Although, I usually trust what comes out of Barron's, but take much of the information shared with a grain of salt :suspious:
I agree. If the price of commodities is dropping that would suggest the current normalization path by the Fed is having its intended effect. Clearly, it may also signal that we are heading for a recession, but that seems inevitable at this point and almost definitely a necessary consequence of getting inflation back down. The hope of course is that the recession is reasonably mild and not something terrible, but I don't think anyone knows that yet.
The writer of the article should be asked if he would be happier if commodity prices continued to rip higher while the Fed was desperately trying to get inflation under control. I'd be curious what his response would be to that question.
I found this story about the Auditors Earnst and Young truly astonishing
https://www.npr.org/2022/06/28/1108044858/accounting-giant-ernst-young-admits-its-employees-cheated-on-ethics-exams
I mean they are auditors who are charged with catching people who cheat and they had employees cheating on exams. Worse the exam they were cheating on was an ethics exam of all things. To make matters worst Earnst and Young failed to report the cheating when it was discovered and tried to obstruct the investigation by federal officials
They were fined a record $100 million for their wrongdoing. Ernst and Young are lucky they are not a publically traded company or their stock would be tanking and the story would gain more traction. As it is, I doubt that they will lose many customers even if cheating and an ethics exam seems like building the lily when it comes to wrong doing
we got a much better than expected jobs report with steady low unemployment and more jobs created than expected (plus an upward revision of the last report). So what does the market do? go down :what:
It's funny as I was getting dressed this morning the guy on my radio was talking about today's job report. I mused to myself:
"if jobs go up, the market will drop because of fears of more rate hikes"
"if the jobs go down, the market will drop because of fears of a recession"
I am starting to get a hang of things. Much of the market movement seems to be driven by prevailing fears or optimism rather than cold calculated logic.
Quote from: MightyGiants on July 08, 2022, 09:53:46 AMwe got a much better than expected jobs report with steady low unemployment and more jobs created than expected (plus an upward revision of the last report). So what does the market do? go down :what:
It's funny as I was getting dressed this morning the guy on my radio was talking about today's job report. I mused to myself:
"if jobs go up, the market will drop because of fears of more rate hikes"
"if the jobs go down, the market will drop because of fears of a recession"
I am starting to get a hang of things. Much of the market movement seems to be driven by prevailing fears or optimism rather than cold calculated logic.
Big investors are a fickle bunch filled with anxiety and fear. They sell on the slightest hint from any story that means they might lose some money. But in today's case, it might just be profit takers as yesterday the market had a great run and they want to lock in that 12-15% profit they made yesterday
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on July 08, 2022, 10:27:22 AMBig investors are a fickle bunch filled with anxiety and fear. They sell on the slightest hint from any story that means they might lose some money. But in today's case, it might just be profit takers as yesterday the market had a great run and they want to lock in that 12-15% profit they made yesterday
I have seen the reverse as well. By that, I mean when we are in a strong bull market I have seen investors spin any and all news as good news.
Quote from: MightyGiants on July 08, 2022, 01:17:17 PMI have seen the reverse as well. By that, I mean when we are in a strong bull market I have seen investors spin any and all news as good news.
I totally agree with your analysis. In good markets people look for any excuse to buy, and it usually doesn't take much. And the opposite definitely applies as well. Acknowledging and respecting the underlying trend is a key fundamental aspect of good trading in my opinion.
This morning the market took off like a house fire. I was up over 11% by 10:30 AM and didn't look at it again until after the market closed and I am lucky to be up a half percent. Most people got burned. A snapshot of today's market is ugly. If you're not used to these charts, the bigger the square/rectangle the heavier the volume, red=bad (the redder the worse), gray=held ground, green=good, etc., and it's broken down in sectors. Notice Oil and Gas is all green (which means tomorrow it will be all red probably)
Quite surprised Google tanked since it split today 20-1 :-??
(https://i.postimg.cc/mgvdkSGG/7-18-22.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Today's Heat Map looks much better than yesterday :ok:
(https://i.postimg.cc/6QhY2nfb/Heat-Map-7-19-22.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
@Jolly Blue Giant I like those heat maps, they are very useful :ok:
Here's a link with a live heat map you can pull up anytime you want. I have the url pinned to my task bar
https://finviz.com/map.ashx
I should also mention (seeing that you watch ETFs) that if you go to the page, on the left hand side you can switch it to ETFs or World Stocks, etc. You can also look at the map for 1-day, 30 days, 6 months, etc. It's all controlled on the side bar
I picked up some dividend ETFs today. There seem to be some indicators we are nearing the bottom of the market. I figure as I am getting older, dividends are safer investments than going for growth.
Quote from: MightyGiants on July 22, 2022, 01:32:34 PMI picked up some dividend ETFs today. There seem to be some indicators we are nearing the bottom of the market. I figure as I am getting older, dividends are safer investments than going for growth.
I think if the July CPI data (due out on Aug 10th) shows bona fide improvement on the inflation front, we can probably begin to feel reasonably confident that we have already seen the lows for the year in stocks.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 22, 2022, 01:39:24 PMI think if the July CPI data (due out on Aug 10th) shows bona fide improvement on the inflation front, we can probably begin to feel reasonably confident that we have already seen the lows for the year in stocks.
That would sure be nice. I've had 6 straight days in the green (one of them only .5% even though the market in general was very red, but hey - +.5% is not red). Today is different - lot of red and I'm down...but not so far that it erases the last few days of positive gains. Anyway, I'm sure hoping that things have bottomed out and people on the sidelines with their billions are sticking their toes back in the water so to say. Hoping the market takes off soon :yes:
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on July 22, 2022, 01:51:59 PMThat would sure be nice. I've had 6 straight days in the green (one of them only .5% even though the market in general was very red, but hey - +.5% is not red). Today is different - lot of red and I'm down...but not so far that it erases the last few days of positive gains. Anyway, I'm sure hoping that things have bottomed out and people on the sidelines with their billions are sticking their toes back in the water so to say. Hoping the market takes off soon :yes:
There are obviously still lots of things to worry about, but recession is already in the price and nobody thinks we're not having one. Just how bad it will be is not known, but one is surely coming. What is not priced is a Fed pause. With the growth data clearly looking a lot softer, if we get a pullback in inflation, the Fed will have much less reason to be hiking as quickly and aggressively as it has been, and I think that a dovish repricing of the Fed's rate path would be very bullish for the markets.
Obviously, if CPI somehow comes in at something like terrible 9.3% for July to go along with this big decline in growth, that won't be good at all for markets. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
Rough day in the tech sector, consumer goods, and financials. Good day for health, utilities, and real estate
(https://i.postimg.cc/Jz6bN5C7/sec-140950619.png) (https://postimages.org/)
I've mentioned it before, but I am a HUUUGE fan of Plug Power. I have a hundred shares and plan on holding them for the rest of my life
Anyway, yesterday PLUG went up 4.2% during the trading hours. I checked my stocks post-trading hours and the stock had jumped another 12% =D> =D> =D>
As I check my stocks right now, PLUG is up 21.71% after yesterday's 16+% - I'm still trying to find a news article that explains why this is happening. Regardless...it sure makes me happy
(https://i.postimg.cc/j2r0dcXK/Plug.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Well, I finally found the answer. From Marketwatch https://www.marketwatch.com/story/plug-power-fuel-cell-and-solar-stocks-soar-after-manchin-changes-course-to-back-climate-spending-2022-07-28
"Shares of clean energy companies soared Thursday, after Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin pulled an about-face and agreed to an economic bill that includes climate spending. "Details of the bill are not yet available, but based on commentary from the Senators, we expect spending on clean energy (including hydrogen, nuclear and renewables) as well as fossil fuels," analyst Mark Strouse at J.P. Morgan wrote in a note to clients. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF ICLN, 6.31% shot up 5.3% in premarket trading, while futures ES00, 0.30% for the S&P 500 SPX, 0.37% fell 0.2%.. Within the ETF, shares of Plug Power Inc. PLUG, 24.85% powered up 15.1%, FuelCell Energy Inc. FCEL, 7.37% hiked up 13.0%, SunPower Corp. SPWR, 16.33% surged 14.4%, SunRun Inc. RUN, 25.18% shot up 12.5%, FirstSolar Inc. FSLR, 15.91% ran up 12.8% and Ballard Power Systems Inc. BLDP, 15.04% rallied 6.9%."
Crossing my fingers, but I think the bull is back...at least in the tech world #:-S
(https://i.postimg.cc/wTFWWxZR/bull-charging.gif) (https://postimages.org/)
The ETF: QQQ has been one of the few ETFs I've invested in over the past couple of years...that and SPY. Both overly heavy in tech stocks...especially Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Google, Nvidia, etc.
(https://i.postimg.cc/g2sHzMmw/QQQ.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
When looking at the last month of July compared to the first half of the year, it sure looks as if a rebound is happening in the tech sector. Hopefully, the market has bottomed out and some of those billionaires sitting on the sidelines with mountains of cash have grown some cojones and are jumping back in
Yeah, things seem to quietly be moving in the right direction. I say quietly as you don't hear near the reporting about things getting better than when we were on the downswing. I picked up more dividend stocks recently because I think we have hit or are near the bottom, and things will get better. With interest rates still likely to rise, I see bonds as still a risky investment so I prefer dividend stocks. If the economy sort of stagnates or stocks goes down, I can take in the dividend income until things get better.
Nice chart here to enjoy your morning coffee to:
https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP/status/1555439725556662273
Job creation was twice what was expected for July. The market's reaction? The markets reacted negatively to the news. :what:
The argument is a strong job market means more interest rate hikes. Seems investors alternate their worry from "we are in a recession" to "the economy is too strong so the feds will raise rates" :surrender:
Yesterday was a big time sell off. Today, the market's on fire...go figure
(https://i.postimg.cc/Qtn5kqJ5/Clipard01.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Ric,
The inflation numbers came out and while they are not ideal, they are lower than what was expected
Ugly day in the market today, but one of my stocks took off like a rocket after the market closed. One of my favorite companies is Wolfspeed, Inc (WOLF) that started in "Research Triangle" in North Carolina and just built a new and bigger plant in New York in the Mohawk Valley area next to New Yorks nano center that has cost taxpayers billions. I only own about 25 shares, but I got in when it was cheap and during the time I was analyzing investments into the semiconductor business. I spent a lot of time researching materials and machinery that Intel, AMD, etc., use to make their chips. I also own about the same amount of stock in Globalfoundries, Inc. (GFS) that manufactures the equipment needed to build chips and they are basically next door to the heavies in Santa Clara, Cal. [note: Intel, AMD, and Nvidia are all in Santa Clara within 3 blocks of each other]. GFS co-engineers with each of those companies and builds their machinery to meet their exact specifications. That's a big plus because Intel, etc., have invested billions in equipment and they aren't going to change suppliers and get rid of all their old equipment when the company next door is already building exactly what they need and can retrofit equipment a mile down the road. It's a big (huge) modern company on the edge of technology
As you can see, GFS Plant is not some fly by night company operating out of a mini-mall in Santa Clara:
(https://i.postimg.cc/503w7sCv/gfs.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Another big player in semiconductor production is Lam Research in Freemont, Cal. They build different types of machinery used by the big boys in the business and are deep in bed with Intel, AMD, and Nvidia
(https://i.postimg.cc/QtX6d9gQ/Lam.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Anyway, Wolfspeed developed, patented, and now manufactures all the silicon carbide wafers that are the root substance for semiconductor companies. Their material is far superior to the silicon used by traditional semiconductors like Intel, AMD, and Nvidia in years past. It's almost a business that is impossible to fail...knock on wood
Regardless, while the market was tanking today, WOLF is up over 15% for the day with about 90% of it's jump coming after closing hours. It salvages the rest of the bad day I had and thought I'd share (or brag maybe :laugh: )
I have a heart for local business and I might as well support where my tax dollars go as NYS has invested heavily in becoming a nano technology center for that sector of business. Wolfspeed is only a small portion of the overall project to make New York a high tech region specializing in all things semiconductor. They have also poured tons into Plug Power to make New York a leader in liquid hydrogen production and distribution. Plug is miles ahead of its competitors in customer base (Amazon, Walmart, etc.) and are building a network of refill stations around the globe
This is the "nano center" campus in New York
(https://i.postimg.cc/Wb6hMd0F/cnse-aerial-1.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/4myfGNLs)
https://marcynanocenter.com/
this is the Wolfspeed NY plant that opened this year next to the nano center:
(https://i.postimg.cc/8zZc0xKT/Wolfspeed-mohawk-valley-facility.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
I'm not suggesting in anyway that anyone should invest in these companies. These are just some of my favorite tech stocks that I follow and thought some might find it interesting as I do
The ugly day in pictures
(https://i.postimg.cc/pXgP7RxQ/Ugly-day.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Wolf is up nearly 30% this morning. Nice to catch a wave once in awhile :ok:
(https://i.postimg.cc/Bngsw0w6/Wolf.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Ugly, ugly day for the tech sector. Looks like health care and energy/utilities are the only sectors going up. And they are almost always down. Must be profit taking - either that, or options calls are abundant
:boooo: :boooo: :boooo: :boooo: :boooo:
(https://i.postimg.cc/KzNkpNc6/001.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on August 19, 2022, 12:24:38 PMUgly, ugly day for the tech sector. Looks like health care and energy/utilities are the only sectors going up. And they are almost always down. Must be profit taking - either that, or options calls are abundant
:boooo: :boooo: :boooo: :boooo: :boooo:
(https://i.postimg.cc/KzNkpNc6/001.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Seems like there really is nothing to push the markets higher. It's like they are just in a holding patter (plus it's Friday)
I'm a big supporter of hydrogen power and have quite a bit of money invested in Plug Power stock which has been on an upward trend for several weeks now after bottoming out. I don't suggest anyone invest in PLUG, as it is a high risk, high reward type stock in a company that has yet to show a profit since its inception
Regardless, this is an interesting article that encourages me to believe that hydrogen is the fuel of the future
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/coradia-ilint-hydrogen-trains/index.html
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on August 25, 2022, 10:24:38 AMI'm a big supporter of hydrogen power and have quite a bit of money invested in Plug Power stock which has been on an upward trend for several weeks now after bottoming out. I don't suggest anyone invest in PLUG, as it is a high risk, high reward type stock in a company that has yet to show a profit since its inception
Regardless, this is an interesting article that encourages me to believe that hydrogen is the fuel of the future
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/coradia-ilint-hydrogen-trains/index.html
Ric,
I am not sure how you view hydrogen, but I have noticed that many people don't fully appreciate the nature of hydrogen power. Some people view it as an energy source like fossil fuels, wind, solar, etc
Hydrogen is best viewed as a means of storing and transferring energy. Energy is needed to generate hydrogen. The biggest potential for hydrogen is in vehicles. Refueling a hydrogen-powered vehicle is more akin to gassing up a gasoline or diesel vehicle than, say, recharging an electric vehicle (which, even under the best conditions, takes at least 20 minutes for a substantial charge)
Hydrogen can be used to generate electricity via a fuel cell or burned in an internal combustion engine. When burned, the difference is fossil fuels burn and produce CO2 and H2O (plus small amounts of a variety of pollutants) while burning hydrogen produces H2O.
Quote from: MightyGiants on August 25, 2022, 10:49:09 AMRic,
I am not sure how you view hydrogen, but I have noticed that many people don't fully appreciate the nature of hydrogen power. Some people view it as an energy source like fossil fuels, wind, solar, etc
Hydrogen is best viewed as a means of storing and transferring energy. Energy is needed to generate hydrogen. The biggest potential for hydrogen is in vehicles. Refueling a hydrogen-powered vehicle is more akin to gassing up a gasoline or diesel vehicle than, say, recharging an electric vehicle (which, even under the best conditions, takes at least 20 minutes for a substantial charge)
Hydrogen can be used to generate electricity via a fuel cell or burned in an internal combustion engine. When burned, the difference is fossil fuels burn and produce CO2 and H2O (plus small amounts of a variety of pollutants) while burning hydrogen produces H2O.
I'm high on hydrogen. Twenty years ago I was in Plug Power's original plant and given a tour of the facilities as well as a complete video presentation in the conference room explaining how it works. I was blown away. At the time, Plug Power was literally the only serious player in the market and they have done wonders at getting plants set up internationally as well as putting together a refuelling grid across the U.S. and Europe
I was just blown away at the aggressiveness of Germany starting with trains. To me, that is huge because it means big trucks and big planes are also good candidates for hydrogen powered transportation
I remember years ago when George "W" said in a speech that he was supporting hydrogen and he was ridiculed for saying it because his critics said, "it's completely unfeasible" and "it's a hundred years away if it can even be done". Well, Germany is paving the way with hydrogen powered trains :o
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on August 25, 2022, 10:59:32 AMI'm high on hydrogen. Twenty years ago I was in Plug Power's original plant and given a tour of the facilities as well as a complete video presentation in the conference room explaining how it works. I was blown away. At the time, Plug Power was literally the only serious player in the market and they have done wonders at getting plants set up internationally as well as putting together a refuelling grid across the U.S. and Europe
I was just blown away at the aggressiveness of Germany starting with trains. To me, that is huge because it means big trucks and big planes are also good candidates for hydrogen powered transportation
I remember years ago when George "W" said in a speech that he was supporting hydrogen and he was ridiculed for saying it because his critics said, "it's completely unfeasible" and "it's a hundred years away if it can even be done". Well, Germany is paving the way with hydrogen powered trains :o
Ric,
The criticism for Bush promoting hydrogen was more due to the idea that it could replace fossil fuels (as I explained, it's not a fuel source). Hydrogen is more of an adjunct to replacing fossil fuels. It gives us the ability to make power plants the main means of energy generation, which allow for easier alternatives to fossil fuels such as solar, wind, hydro, etc.
Your comments also reminded me just how drastically the political landscape has changed in this country over the past 20 years
I have a subscription to Seeking Alpha so not sure this link will work, but I'll give it a try
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3876643-plug-power-surges-on-hydrogen-supply-deal-with-amazon?mailingid=28842620&messageid=2900&serial=28842620.58726&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28842620.58726
@Jolly Blue Giant I think the one risk to a hydrogen future is if a breakthrough like this happens:
https://newatlas.com/energy/aluminum-sulfur-salt-battery-fast-safe-low-cost/
Quote from: MightyGiants on August 26, 2022, 08:07:28 AM@Jolly Blue Giant
I think the one risk to a hydrogen future is if a breakthrough like this happens:
https://newatlas.com/energy/aluminum-sulfur-salt-battery-fast-safe-low-cost/
That could be huge!
But I still think hydrogen has a big future whether running generators for electricity or powering trains, planes, and big trucks/vans, etc
Stocks took a major tumble as the feds were hawkish on interest rates. Basically saying they will keep raising rates until the get inflation down to 2%
This was suggested to me by Facebook and came from some right-wing political group.
I am not sure why they feel the need to try and make electric vehicles political, but I believe in being open to points made by all sides and persuasions (it may not always seem that way, but some sides tend to go long periods of time without making a valid point :D ;) ).
(https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/301494500_1136255633972429_6869351707899806008_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p526x296&_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=91EjoVTyN6gAX_U-w33&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1.xx&oh=00_AT-gkqa6RGbaI0QvLfkbfCB530XFrtbuHOHEGR8wH0D_fw&oe=630E420A)
Here is why I posted this, there is some validity in their propaganda picture. Electric vehicles have an Achille's Heal when it comes to interior heating. Converting electricity into heat is usually very inefficient and energy intensive. So the answer is, "no, I wouldn't want to be stuck in a snow storm traffic jam trying to keep warm. With internal combustion vehicles, the warm comes by bringing in some of the excess heat that is being vented from the car (through the engine radiator).
Of course, this can also be a bit misleading as cars will also run out of gas idling away stuck in the same traffic jam (just that it takes significantly longer)
I will share that I tend to think the short-term to medium-term future is more likely in plugin hybrids, and longer term, I do think hydrogen may end up giving batter electrics a run for their money. I read an article on the negatives of electric vehicles, and unless there is a real breakthrough, they may be limited to people who have more than one vehicle.
Also, along those lines, I hear that California wants to phase out fossil fuel vehicles by 2035, so I suspect there could be a shelf life on those types of vehicles. Although I heard an energy expert recently mention that all the solar, wind and other clean energy coming online is only handling mankind's ever-increasing demand for energy and hasn't really made a dent in the BTUs that fossil fuels are contributing (and that isn't likely to change anytime soon). SO I feel less of an urgency to sell by Cheveron or natural gas stocks
Everyone: I think today was an inflection point in the stock market.
It was possible, though unlikely, the Fed could have (today) signaled more optimism than pessimism, along with a dovish approach toward interest rates in the near future, in which case the rally that began about June 15 (through last week) could have resumed (continued) with almost a guarantee that the June lows would ultimately prove to have been the "bottom" of this bear market.
Instead, we got IMO less optimism than pessimism, along with hawkish signals, as well as a muted but identifiable "warning" generally advising the markets not to expect or rely upon a so-called "soft landing" in terms of the recession. Accordingly, the likelihood of an alternative path for near-term stock markets (along with at least one more sharp interest rate hike) has been greatly enhanced. By "alternative path" I mean that I think it's now more likely there will be AT LEAST a test of the mid-June low-point (i.e., the markets will fall to that general vicinity before eventually heading higher - whenever that may be).
There is a guy who agrees with this point of view, and you can hear him at this link:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/market-positioned-perfection-dovish-fed-211206318.html
There are reports that the Fed Chair's speech today "surprised" markets (see this link for one example)
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/fed-chair-powell-inflation-remarks-192430364.html
... but I personally don't believe it. The guy in the preceding link was not at all "surprised."
BOTTOM LINE: IMO, please keep close tabs on your money the next five or six weeks. I know we're all excited and eager to see our "new" team play games that actually count for something... but don't forget about your dough!!!!
Bob
Quote from: MightyGiants on August 26, 2022, 03:47:14 PM... I tend to think the short-term to medium-term future is more likely in plugin hybrids, and longer term, I do think hydrogen may end up giving battery electrics a run for their money.
Rich: IMO that is as true, correct, accurate, realistic and non-partisan as possible. And well-worth noting. Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on August 26, 2022, 03:49:48 PMEveryone: I think today was an inflection point in the stock market.
It was possible, though unlikely, the Fed could have (today) signaled more optimism than pessimism, along with a dovish approach toward interest rates in the near future, in which case the rally that began about June 15 (through last week) could have resumed (continued) with almost a guarantee that the June lows would ultimately prove to have been the "bottom" of this bear market.
Instead, we got IMO less optimism than pessimism, along with hawkish signals, as well as a muted but identifiable "warning" generally advising the markets not to expect or rely upon a so-called "soft landing" in terms of the recession. Accordingly, the likelihood of an alternative path for near-term stock markets (along with at least one more sharp interest rate hike) has been greatly enhanced. By "alternative path" I mean that I think it's now more likely there will be AT LEAST a test of the mid-June low-point (i.e., the markets will fall to that general vicinity before eventually heading higher - whenever that may be).
There is a guy who agrees with this point of view, and you can hear him at this link:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/market-positioned-perfection-dovish-fed-211206318.html
There are reports that the Fed Chair's speech today "surprised" markets (see this link for one example)
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/fed-chair-powell-inflation-remarks-192430364.html
... but I personally don't believe it. The guy in the preceding link was not at all "surprised."
BOTTOM LINE: IMO, please keep close tabs on your money the next five or six weeks. I know we're all excited and eager to see our "new" team play games that actually count for something... but don't forget about your dough!!!!
Bob
Bob,
I am not sure why anyone would be "surprised". I mean, the fed is mandated to keep inflation under control. I also think today was an overreaction. Prices have been easing and even dropping, but I doubt the fed is satisfied that they are back to 2%. Still, I suspect that the September increase, assuming there is one, will be less than the last two.
Quote from: MightyGiants on August 26, 2022, 03:59:13 PMI am not sure why anyone would be "surprised".
Rich: Agree completely.
Yet you don't even have to spend time listening to the link I posted (the 2nd one).
Just read the title of the link. LOL
Bob
PS. Seriously, it's just more media b.s. (which is widespread, especially since the advent of the Internet era).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfnJm7WjOcs
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on August 27, 2022, 12:19:51 PMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfnJm7WjOcs
That is an excellent video
Reminds me of the visual joke at the beginning of the movie 'Animal House.'
There's a statue with an inscription quoting the founder of Faber College as follows:
"Knowledge is good."
Bob
Of course, all is not sunshine and rainbows for the future of hydrogen. The Achilles Heal of hydrogen is STORAGE
QuoteHowever, fuel-cell-powered vehicles require enough hydrogen to provide a driving range of more than 300 miles with the ability to quickly and easily refuel the vehicle. While some light-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) that are capable of this range have emerged onto the market, these vehicles will rely on compressed gas onboard storage using large-volume, high-pressure composite vessels. The required large storage volumes may have less impact for larger vehicles, but providing sufficient hydrogen storage across all light-duty platforms remains a challenge. The importance of the 300-mile-range goal can be appreciated by looking at the sales distribution by range chart on this page, which shows that most vehicles sold today are capable of exceeding this minimum.
On a mass basis, hydrogen has nearly three times the energy content of gasoline—120 MJ/kg for hydrogen versus 44 MJ/kg for gasoline. On a volume basis, however, the situation is reversed; liquid hydrogen has a density of 8 MJ/L whereas gasoline has a density of 32 MJ/L, as shown in the figure comparing energy densities of fuels based on lower heating values. Onboard hydrogen storage capacities of 5–13 kg hydrogen will be required to meet the driving range for the full range of light-duty vehicle platforms.
To overcome these challenges HFTO is pursuing two strategic pathways, targeting both near-term and long-term solutions. The near-term pathway focuses on compressed gas storage, using advanced pressure vessels made of fiber reinforced composites that are capable of reaching 700 bar pressure, with a major emphasis on system cost reduction. The long-term pathway focuses on both (1) cold or cryo-compressed hydrogen storage, where increased hydrogen density and insulated pressure vessels may allow for DOE targets to be met and (2) materials-based hydrogen storage technologies, including sorbents, chemical hydrogen storage materials, and metal hydrides, with properties having potential to meet DOE hydrogen storage targets.
https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-storage
Rich: Right, which is why the fuel cell idea is also being pursued. Hydrogen can be stored physically (not so good) or chemically (much better IMO) in or on certain solids from which it can be extracted or "disconnected" from the solid as needed.
The futurists who helped produce the original Star Trek of the late 1960's were truly prescient.
The Enterprise did not operate on battery power LOL and if you search the entire Star Trek catalogue from beginning to current, it is highly unlikely you'll find the word "battery" anywhere.
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on August 28, 2022, 09:17:16 AMRich: Right, which is why the fuel cell idea is also being pursued. Hydrogen can be stored physically (not so good) or chemically (much better IMO) in or on certain solids from which it can be extracted or "disconnected" from the solid as needed.
The futurists who helped produce the original Star Trek of the late 1960's were truly prescient.
The Enterprise did not operate on battery power LOL and if you search the entire Star Trek catalogue from beginning to current, it is highly unlikely you'll find the word "battery" anywhere.
Bob
Bob. It's very difficult for me to find any dilithium crystals. 🤣🤣🤣
Bill
Quote from: Bob In PA on August 28, 2022, 09:17:16 AMRich: Right, which is why the fuel cell idea is also being pursued. Hydrogen can be stored physically (not so good) or chemically (much better IMO) in or on certain solids from which it can be extracted or "disconnected" from the solid as needed.
The futurists who helped produce the original Star Trek of the late 1960's were truly prescient.
The Enterprise did not operate on battery power LOL and if you search the entire Star Trek catalogue from beginning to current, it is highly unlikely you'll find the word "battery" anywhere.
Bob
The Enterprise ran on the reaction of anti-matter with the matter. Fuel cells are a means of converting the chemical energy of hydrogen into electricity.
I think the one thing not touched upon in the link I provided is the safety issue. We have pretty much figured out how to store 20 gallons of a flammable liquid that produces explosive vapors. Storing a highly explosive gas like hydrogen safely will prove a challenge as well.
The article I posted talked about storing hydrogen at 10,000 PSI, which is incredibly high pressure. So not only do you need a very strong storage vessel, but it will be challenging to transfer gases under such high pressure.
Worse, IMO it might be very easy for even semi-knowledgeable people to convert a fuel cell into a weapon. Bob
Quote from: ps11yat14 on August 28, 2022, 09:28:01 AMBob. It's very difficult for me to find any dilithium crystals. 🤣🤣🤣
Bill
Those crystals were used to covert the energy produced by the matter/anti-matter reaction into useful energy, if anyone is interested in following along with the pseudo-science :D
Quote from: Bob In PA on August 28, 2022, 09:46:01 AMWorse, IMO it might be very easy for even semi-knowledgeable people to convert a fuel cell into a weapon. Bob
Bob,
I am not sure you are using the terms correctly. A fuel cell takes air/O2 plus hydrogen and creates electricity. It's pretty harmless and benign (although it will contain valuable metals, much like a catalytic converter). I think you are referring to the hydrogen storage vessel, which really doesn't have a common name, at least not yet, or at least that I am aware of. A hydrogen pressure vessel could theoretically be used as a weapon. Tanks that store hydrogen chemically would be safer and far less dangerous, although the challenge with media storage is it would take longer to refuel since the hydrogen would need to be absorbed into the storage media.
Being an old farm boy and having the old "Johnny Poppers" (two cylinder John Deere' tractors..a wide front "A" and a narrow front "B") that ran on either diesel or gasoline and made the sound "pop, pop, pop, pop..etc", when driving it. I have been alive long enough to witness the incredible evolution of gas powered engines. And that's nothing compared to people who lived early in the 20th century witnessing the single cylinder engine and steam engines take over literal horses powering travel. I've often thought of how my grandfather in his lifetime was alive when Wilbur and Orville Wright flew a kite like plane at Kitty Hawk...then came the canvas laden bi-planes of WW1...then the turbo-jet engines used at the end of WWII...to jet planes carrying passengers...to flying to the friggin moon and back - all in his lifetime :o
The evolution of telephones even faster. My parents used a phone with a crank handle when I was a baby. They were on a party line of 8 neighbors. Their phone number was "two longs and a short". The phone rang in all the neighbors' houses, but you only answered if it was your ring sequence. If you wanted to call someone outside your party line, you cranked the handle with one long ring taking you to the operator who would then plug a wire from your party line and link it a socket of the other party line, etc., and commence ringing their sequence. Then came the dial phone with a real handset (but in my case, still on a party line, but not everyone's phone rang when being called). Then lo and behold, push button phones and no party lines. Then wireless phones in the house so you didn't have to stand next to a wall when someone called. Then answering machines and holy cow, caller-ID so you could screen calls. It all hit me like a brick one day about 10 years ago when I was fly fishing in the Delaware River in the rolling hills, the only sound was the rippling of the river and nary a house in sight when my cell phone suddenly rang in my pocket. I answered it and it was my brother-in-law who was stuck in traffic on his scooter in Tel Aviv. I had a moment afterwards of Eureka type mind-blown thinking. My phone was half the size of a pack of cigarettes and I'm in water up to my waist in the middle of nowhere easily speaking and hearing someone talk to me from the other side of the planet and it was crystal clear. It really made me think about how far (and fast) communication had come in my lifetime. Dittos with computers and the internet
The point: technology evolves because of the sheer genius of combined human engineering at all levels. The more engineers involved, the faster the evolution as they build on each other's findings and successes. What we are witnessing is the infant stage of an energy source that will be refined over and over with new ideas and Eureka moments pumped into it until one day, hydrogen engines will be commonplace and the day will come when people find humor at the gasoline and diesel powered engines we use en masse similar to the way we view the steam engines of our forefathers
It might take longer than we like, but you can bet the ranch it is going to be the wave of the future. It's just hard to see at this stage of infancy, but never underestimate the genius of humans
Quote from: MightyGiants on August 28, 2022, 09:32:09 AMThe Enterprise ran on the reaction of anti-matter with the matter. Fuel cells are a means of converting the chemical energy of hydrogen into electricity.
I think the one thing not touched upon in the link I provided is the safety issue. We have pretty much figured out how to store 20 gallons of a flammable liquid that produces explosive vapors. Storing a highly explosive gas like hydrogen safely will prove a challenge as well.
The article I posted talked about storing hydrogen at 10,000 PSI, which is incredibly high pressure. So not only do you need a very strong storage vessel, but it will be challenging to transfer gases under such high pressure.
I've wondered the same thing. Of course, having a tank full of flammable gasoline under your moving vehicle can also explode. I don't know about stored hydrogen, but I'm pretty sure Toyota and others working on projects have done their research if nothing more than a FMEA analysis which is a standard tool used by all engineers and quality techs during the invention of new products
I've also wondered what the climate change would be if millions of cars and trucks in the future are running on hydrogen and the exhaust is water vapor which could presumably saturate our breathing air with extreme humidity...a blessing in super-dry Arizona, not so much in super-humid Florida :-??
@Jolly Blue Giant I think over the last 30 or 40 years, most of our advancements have been driven by the incredible revolution of electronics which was similar to the advancement in mechanical advancements we witnessed at the start of the industrial age. That's not to say we haven't advanced in the mechanical and material realms, but it has been considerably slower.
Think about it, many futurists of the 1960s predicted flying cars. Yet, due to the energy requirement and the safety hurdles required, we are nowhere near true flying cars. On the other hand, few in the 60s predicted we would be carrying around devices in our pockets that allowed us to communicate with anyone in the world or look up information on any conceivable topic. Consider that after the interstate highway system was completed, we are no quicker going from NYC to LA than we were 40 years ago (maybe worse due to traffic), yet we can communicate between those cities in ways almost unimaginable back then. Plus, if you are driving, the vehicle is much safer, more fuel efficient, and a bit more comfortable. Many of the mechanical advancements in cars are the result of electronic control systems.
I say all that to say that the issue with hydrogen storage is very challenging, and while there may be a breakthrough development, I anticipate a slow grind with incremental improvement.
As for burning hydrogen, when you burn fossil fuels, you get water and CO2, so I don't think the humidity would be drastically worse. The other thing, if I remember my education correctly, liquid gasoline is not highly flammable/explosive; it's the vapors that are dangerous.
Quote from: ps11yat14 on August 28, 2022, 09:28:01 AMBob. It's very difficult for me to find any dilithium crystals. 🤣🤣🤣
Bill
Bill: I'll check with Elon Musk to see if he has a few extras he can spare. LOL
Quote from: MightyGiants on August 28, 2022, 09:48:35 AMBob,
I am not sure you are using the terms correctly. A fuel cell takes air/O2 plus hydrogen and creates electricity. It's pretty harmless and benign (although it will contain valuable metals, much like a catalytic converter). I think you are referring to the hydrogen storage vessel, which really doesn't have a common name, at least not yet, or at least that I am aware of. A hydrogen pressure vessel could theoretically be used as a weapon. Tanks that store hydrogen chemically would be safer and far less dangerous, although the challenge with media storage is it would take longer to refuel since the hydrogen would need to be absorbed into the storage media.
Rich: You're right. I tried to take a linguistic short-cut in an area where there are no shortcuts. Bob
Like I said before, the future should be in plugin hybrids. This article makes some good points about this idea:
plug-in hybrids use smaller batters
most people's daily trips tend to be less than the range of plug-ins (especially if they bump that up to 50 miles)
Unfortunately, the downside is that people tend not to plug their cars in each night which negates the huge advantage of this technology.
https://www.axios.com/2022/08/31/plug-in-hybrids
Quote from: MightyGiants on August 31, 2022, 10:34:09 AMLike I said before, the future should be in plugin hybrids. This article makes some good points about this idea:
plug-in hybrids use smaller batters
most people's daily trips tend to be less than the range of plug-ins (especially if they bump that up to 50 miles)
Unfortunately, the downside is that people tend not to plug their cars in each night which negates the huge advantage of this technology.
https://www.axios.com/2022/08/31/plug-in-hybrids
My brother bought a new car a few months ago that is a plug in hybrid. He has a unit in his garage to plug it in at night and it's all set by his computer. It recharges his battery for pennies on the dollar. He keeps a full tank of gas and in general, is getting close to 80 miles a gallon and his electric bill has gone up just a few dollars a month so he's happy as a clam with it. Of course, the car cost a whole lot out of the gate so there's that
I just got a notice that American Express is bumping up the dividends on my online savings account to 1.75%
If any of you still keep money in federally insured savings accounts, I would suggest you look at online alternatives like American Express. They are federally insured like brick and mortar banks but they pay higher interest rates
Electric Vehicles vs. HFC vehicles
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538235-lithium-shortage-creates-catalyst-for-plug-powers-green-energy-dominance?mailingid=28908033&messageid=2800&serial=28908033.5719&source=email_2800&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28908033.5719
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on September 01, 2022, 07:21:35 AMElectric Vehicles vs. HFC vehicles
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538235-lithium-shortage-creates-catalyst-for-plug-powers-green-energy-dominance?mailingid=28908033&messageid=2800&serial=28908033.5719&source=email_2800&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28908033.5719
I scanned the article, the thing I found troubling is that the article didn't even mention the issue with storing hydrogen in vehicles
Inflation numbers were much higher than expected, it's not going to be a pretty day for stocks
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 13, 2022, 09:43:00 AMInflation numbers were much higher than expected, it's not going to be a pretty day for stocks
Nope. Pretty disappointing to see the core inflation number getting worse like this. Market was obviously expecting better. Agree today is likely to be quite ugly, but if there is any relative positive here it's the fact that, market expectations aside, the headline CPI number (8.3 in today's release) has now been lower than the previous month in two consecutive months. That has not been the case to this point.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on September 13, 2022, 09:44:44 AMNope. Pretty disappointing to see the core inflation number getting worse like this. Market was obviously expecting better. Agree today is likely to be quite ugly, but if there is any relative positive here it's the fact that, market expectations aside, the headline CPI number (8.3 in today's release) has now been lower than the previous month in two consecutive months. That has not been the case to this point.
I think what makes it more shocking is that we have been seeing some prices (gas in particular) drop in price. It was jarring to see things still going up.
Still, the markets are not reacting directly to the inflation as much as knowing the feds will continue to be aggressive in their rate hikes.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 13, 2022, 09:46:53 AMI think what makes it more shocking is that we have been seeing some prices (gas in particular) drop in price. It was jarring to see things still going up.
Still, the markets are not reacting directly to the inflation as much as knowing the feds will continue to be aggressive in their rate hikes.
Since the headline number incorporates food and energy, it was not surprising to see that number come down a bit. It didn't come down as much as hoped, but it was still lower than last month (for the second time in a row).
The bigger problem today was that the core number (ex food and energy) is significantly worse than last month. And the Fed cares more about that than they do the overall number. I think people have been hoping that the lower energy/gas prices would trickle into the rest of inflation, but they have not, at least not yet.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on September 13, 2022, 10:13:08 AMSince the headline number incorporates food and energy, it was not surprising to see that number come down a bit. It didn't come down as much as hoped, but it was still lower than last month (for the second time in a row).
The bigger problem today was that the core number (ex food and energy) is significantly worse than last month. And the Fed cares more about that than they do the overall number. I think people have been hoping that the lower energy/gas prices would trickle into the rest of inflation, but they have not, at least not yet.
In my opinion, fuel was the big driver of inflation, with labor costs being an additional kicker. I figure that there is a lag in terms of fuel costs driving up prices, and there will be a lag going the other way as well. Labor costs seem to be the bigger challenge. Even with a slowdown in job creation, there isn't a major bump in people looking for work. Add in people wanting raises anticipating inflation and things are going to be tough on that front.
Another driver of inflation is healthcare and insurance. A lot of medical people were burnt out by Covid and retired or left the field. There is rising cost due to the cost to hire new staff