How low to draft one straight up with their first-round pick?
How low to be able to trade up and acquire an elite QB prospect?
This question is most focused on the early draft followers and college football watchers.
Not long.
I am not bullish on this class as everyone seems to be.
Williams and Maye are my clear top 2 QBs.
Daniels seems to flying up the boards with his huge year and traits. Very fast, quick release. However, the SEC defenses stink this year and I question can he make the tight throws in the pockets.
McCarthy is still a huge question mark based off Michigans schedule and style of play that is not open to QBs.
Penix, Nix are not franchise QBs. Their success is dependent on horrible defensive play in the Pac 12 and the have been in college forever. Nix has serious mobility issues and injury history. Nix just seems to be a very good college QB who really struggled in the SEC.
Ewers is interesting but he has been hurt a lot and has been inconsistent.
If we have a top 2 pick, take WIlliams or Maye. Ifyou fall in love with Daniels - so be it. He is interesting and has some really nice traits.
Quote from: JT39 on November 13, 2023, 11:51:50 AMI am not bullish on this class as everyone seems to be.
JT: Right there with you. We are in the distinct minority here (subject to change from us or them).
I think a hot hand will emerge between now & season's end; that guy will become a consensus high 1st-round pick.
Then we'll have the pre-draft stuff pro-days, bowl games, etc., and IMO Daniels will shine.
Regardless of the accuracy of my predictions, I have no doubt there will be one (and IMO only one) guy in this class who will prove eventually to have been worth a high first-rounder.
Others may do well (probably by getting on better teams than the top one or two QB's selected) but in the long run, IMO it's not a good draft for QB-desperate teams. IMO the Giants are NOT one of them. Jones is still under contract, so I can't see the Giants eating his salary. Anyway, I'm hoping (not so secretly) for Drew Allar from Penn State in 2025, after the Giants maneuver into position to get this year's best "elite WR" prospect who (right now) I believe is Harrison, Jr.
Bob
Everyone is talking Williams and Maye, probably rightly so. All the hype though does cloud the picture. I'm looking for college QB's that have the skills, raw material that can be refined/developed into a starting/winning/franchise type QB. I've taken notice of Brady Cook from Missouri.
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 13, 2023, 12:51:35 PMJT: Right there with you. We are in the distinct minority here (subject to change from us or them).
I think a hot hand will emerge between now & season's end; that guy will become a consensus high 1st-round pick.
Then we'll have the pre-draft stuff pro-days, bowl games, etc., and IMO Daniels will shine.
Regardless of the accuracy of my predictions, I have no doubt there will be one (and IMO only one) guy in this class who will prove eventually to have been worth a high first-rounder.
Others may do well (probably by getting on better teams than the top one or two QB's selected) but in the long run, IMO it's not a good draft for QB-desperate teams. IMO the Giants are NOT one of them. Jones is still under contract, so I can't see the Giants eating his salary. Anyway, I'm hoping (not so secretly) for Drew Allar from Penn State (in 2025, after the Giants maneuver into position to get this year's best "elite WR" prospect who (right now) I believe is Harrison, Jr.
Bob
I don't think you're in the minority, Bob. I believe there's broad consensus that Williams and Maye are the only two top 5 QBs, with three others being 1st round talent. I'm bullish on starting Devita for the remainder of the season to give us the best opportunity to draft the aforementioned top 5 QBs.
I think this is not the right way to look at it. If Schoen has a QB he thinks can be the franchise guy, draft slot shouldn't matter -- he has to go get him and spend whatever it takes to get there.
When he was in Buffalo, they ID'ed Allen. They didn't have to move up too much, but they did end up trading some guys and moving some picks to get in position. They have to do the same here.
We are going to be picking top 4, I would guess. Getting up to 1 may take a haul, but what is a franchise guy worth?
Guys - please look back over the past 5-8 years and for each draft when there were QB prospects, ask yourself and be honest, "how many did you think would be good NFL QBs that did not turn out that way?"
This whole Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are can't miss is pure hooey. 99.9% are can miss these two and wvery other 2024 QB prospect included. Why? Much faster NFL defenses and decensive players, tighter windows to throw into, less time to identify the defensive scheme for that play and where trouble is.
I have not seen a single person say or even vaguely suggest that either Maye or Williams are "can't miss."
Both are highly rated QB prospects. That does not mean (and never has meant) "can't miss." Everyone knows QB prospects can and do bust fairly frequently. So do other positions, like offensive tackle (see Evan Neal).
That doesn't mean you shouldn't take one of Maye or Williams if you have done your due diligence and hold the prospect in high regard.
Quote from: Philosophers on November 13, 2023, 03:06:30 PMGuys - please look back over the past 5-8 years and for each draft when there were QB prospects, ask yourself and be honest, "how many did you think would be good NFL QBs that did not turn out that way?"
This whole Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are can't miss is pure hooey. 99.9% are can miss these two and wvery other 2024 QB prospect included. Why? Much faster NFL defenses and decensive players, tighter windows to throw into, less time to identify the defensive scheme for that play and where trouble is.
Joe, I'm not aware of a single post that suggest either prospect is guaranteed to succeed, akin to Elway or Luck; of course there's risk. What exactly are you proposing? Do you want to give DJ another year, and hope he can avoid another bottom 7 passing performance? We already know DJ is a bust; however, Willams and Maye futures are a mystery. I much rather take a chance on the latter than endure one more season of the former.
Quote from: kingm56 on November 13, 2023, 03:13:17 PMJoe, I'm not aware of a single post that suggest either prospect is guaranteed to succeed, akin to Elway or Luck; of course there's risk. What exactly are you proposing? Do you want to give DJ another year, and hope he can avoid another bottom 7 passing performance? We already know DJ is a bust; however, Willams and Maye futures are a mystery. I much rather take a chance on the latter than endure one more season of the former.
I am not proposing DJ at all. All I am saying is that we temper our enthusiasm a bit about prospects. We need a new QB for sure.
I know I can find some posts here by some folks who have touted Williams as a generational type talent especially posts from a few weeks ago.
@Philosophers and
@DaveBrown74 I think your views represent both sides of the spectrum. The reality is many first-round QBs bust at an alarmingly high rate. It's likely a combination of scouting being less than an exact science, many of the most talented QBs going to the teams least equipped to develop their talent and put QB prospects in the position to win, and the reality that the college game is significantly different than the NFL game.
Still, drafting a QB (usually in round one) is still the best way to acquire a franchise QB. In terms of the Giants, the play by DJ puts his ceiling in serious doubt, but more importantly, DJ's health (mainly his neck and ACL is still a major injury) would seemingly make riding with DJ ill-advised. This is even more true when you consider the financial advantage of a QB playing on a rookie contract (Which will overcome even the sunk costs in DJ's current contract)
3rd overall most likely but if you want one of those two guys you're going to have to trade up to prevent someone else from doing so. Chicago, Carolina, Arizona and NE are the most likely teams to finish as bad or worse than us this year. Chicago is going to take a quarterback either with their pick or the pick they got from Carolina last year. Because of the contract Arizona is pretty much married to Murray unless they can convince someone else to take him off their hands and New England is quarterback needy.
Quote from: Philosophers on November 13, 2023, 03:20:20 PMI am not proposing DJ at all. All I am saying is that we temper our enthusiasm a bit about prospects. We need a new QB for sure.
I know I can find some posts here by some folks who have touted Williams as a generational type talent especially posts from a few weeks ago.
Fair enough, my friend. From the macro perspective, I agree with your overall point. Regardless, I'm hoping we're afforded an opportunity to draft either player.
The draft is a crapshoot, and every year QB prospects that are promised to be all pros never make a second contract. Many more misses than hits.
We have to trust Schoen knows how to scout QBs that will fit in and do well in Daboll's system. The only other ways are drafting a bunch of QBs until you find a good one (taking draft picks away from other positions), or getting one through free agency (tying up all your cap room). The terrible thing is, rarely are one of these guys outright busts. The team usually waits a couple years before it decides.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 13, 2023, 11:47:07 AMHow low to draft one straight up with their first-round pick?
How low to be able to trade up and acquire an elite QB prospect?
This question is most focused on the early draft followers and college football watchers.
Very Comparable to 2020. I think you'll have 2 guys top 5, 3 total in the top 10, and 6 total by the end of the 1st round and 10 picks into the 2nd.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 13, 2023, 04:27:53 PMVery Comparable to 2020. I think you'll have 2 guys top 5, 3 total in the top 10, and 6 total by the end of the 1st round and 10 picks into the 2nd.
We're still six months away. Not sure how many people would have had Anthony Richardson going 4th overall or Will Levis dropping to the 2nd round at this time last year. Not to mention how CJ Stroud improved his stock in the Georgia playoff game last year. There's no telling what can happen over the next six months. Right now, it does feel like Williams and Maye are locks to be the top 2 QBs off the board, but someone like Jayden Daniels can certainly shoot up boards.
I'm not a big college football dude, so I won't have a strong opinion one way or another. But why isn't anyone talking about Jayden Daniels? Has LSU not played anyone? Dude's highlights are ridiculous. He put up 500 total yards by himself against Florida.
If we want insight into what Schoen / Daboll are likely looking for remember that Josh Allen was a physical freak with accuracy issues.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 13, 2023, 04:27:53 PMVery Comparable to 2020. I think you'll have 2 guys top 5, 3 total in the top 10, and 6 total by the end of the 1st round and 10 picks into the 2nd.
Jess,
I appreciate this answer. This was exactly what I was looking for. I have one more question, how many, in your opinion, of these prospects have the ceiling of being elite QBs?
Quote from: SlotCorner on November 13, 2023, 02:51:39 PMIf Schoen has a QB he thinks can be the franchise guy, draft slot shouldn't matter -- he has to go get him and spend whatever it takes to get there.
When he was in Buffalo, they ID'ed Allen. They didn't have to move up too much, but they did end up trading some guys and moving some picks to get in position. They have to do the same here.
We are going to be picking top 4, I would guess. Getting up to 1 may take a haul, but what is a franchise guy worth?
My thoughts exactly.
Quote from: SlotCorner on November 13, 2023, 04:20:46 PMThe draft is a crapshoot, and every year QB prospects that are promised to be all pros never make a second contract. Many more misses than hits.
We have to trust Schoen knows how to scout QBs that will fit in and do well in Daboll's system. The only other ways are drafting a bunch of QBs until you find a good one (taking draft picks away from other positions), or getting one through free agency (tying up all your cap room). The terrible thing is, rarely are one of these guys outright busts. The team usually waits a couple years before it decides.
Daboll is no slouch either when it comes to identifying QB talent. Remember, he coached both Hurts and Tua at Alabama. We know his history with Allen.
Quote from: SlotCorner on November 13, 2023, 02:51:39 PMI think this is not the right way to look at it. If Schoen has a QB he thinks can be the franchise guy, draft slot shouldn't matter -- he has to go get him and spend whatever it takes to get there.
Slot: I believe my previous post (just above) but also AGREE with your statement.
My warning (not to you; you already know) is: I do not see "that guy" and I'm assuming the Giants don't either.
Your post is dead-on correct. You don't get "QB desperate" (as many fans tend to do). You take the best player available with the pick you have -or- you KNOW a guy's gonna be good and you do everything you can to get him.
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 14, 2023, 10:14:38 AMSlot: I believe my previous post (just above) but also AGREE with your statement.
My warning (not to you; you already know) is: I do not see "that guy" and I'm assuming the Giants don't either.
While I appreciate that, I don't think we know what Schoen / Daboll think. I keep coming back to what happened in Buffalo. Josh Allen was seen as a flawed prospect with tools, and his pick at 7 was a surprise. The Buffalo admin thought it could make something out of him. There may be a similar guy coming out, and I am not sure we know.
Quote from: SlotCorner on November 14, 2023, 11:36:55 AMWhile I appreciate that, I don't think we know what Schoen / Daboll think. I keep coming back to what happened in Buffalo. Josh Allen was seen as a flawed prospect with tools, and his pick at 7 was a surprise. The Buffalo admin thought it could make something out of him. There may be a similar guy coming out, and I am not sure we know.
Slot: While you're again correct about all that IMO, remember the crap-shoot aspect of the draft.
It is true that those who see "The Guy" are sometimes correct (your point).
It is also true that those who take a "shot in the dark" & come up winners often appear to be brilliant although in reality they were just plain lucky. lol
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 14, 2023, 11:44:05 AMSlot: While you're again correct about all that IMO, remember the crap-shoot aspect of the draft.
It is true that those who see "The Guy" are sometimes correct (your point).
It is also true that those who take a "shot in the dark" & come up winners often appear to be brilliant although in reality they were just plain lucky. lol
Bob
And for those who take a "shot in the dark" with a high draft pick and it doesn't work out, they should themselves be shot in the dark! :laugh:
Quote from: T200 on November 14, 2023, 12:01:15 PMAnd for those who take a "shot in the dark" with a high draft pick and it doesn't work out, they should themselves be shot in the dark! :laugh:
Tim: Good one! Bob
Quote from: SlotCorner on November 14, 2023, 09:48:32 AMI'm not a big college football dude, so I won't have a strong opinion one way or another. But why isn't anyone talking about Jayden Daniels? Has LSU not played anyone? Dude's highlights are ridiculous. He put up 500 total yards by himself against Florida.
It was 606!
I would be quite happy with Maye, Williams, Daniels, or Penix, in that order. All of them bring multiple elite traits to the table, Penix's arm is ridiculous. He was ripping frozen ropes into the wind against Utah. I'm looking forward to the OSU Michigan game to see if McCarthy has the goods or not, so he's TBD. But the way the draft order is shaking out, the Giants should be able to select on of the top four. If they traded down from #1 or #2 and selected Penix or Daniels and picked up another first round pick I would be ecstatic.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 14, 2023, 09:50:27 AMJess,
I appreciate this answer. This was exactly what I was looking for. I have one more question, how many, in your opinion, of these prospects have the ceiling of being elite QBs?
I would say 3 right now. Rather that's Maye, Daniels, and Mccarthy, or Williams, Maye and Daniels it's hard to tell right now.
Williams has been an elite prospect since he stepped on the field but his height and mental toughness are huge question marks.
Maye has been elite since he walked in the door behind Sam Howell. The real problem with Maye Is a watered down ACC and the offense that he plays in being really simplistic.
Mccarthy was a guy coming into college but not heralded one. He had to earn everything but his mechanics are beautiful and he processes and moves really well in the pocket with deadly accuracy. The knock on him is that he has an amazing team around him and while he has full command of a pro offense he doesn't have to do it all himself and is typically sat in the 3rd quarter because they've dominated someone.
Daniels is putting up video game numbers passing and rushing. People don't realize it because his birthday is later on in the year but he's been in college 5 years and will be 23 before the draft. While he's putting up amazing numbers I personally would comp him to Hendon Hooker the Tennessee Qb that came out last year.
Bo Nix and Micheal Penix are having absolutely elite years but they have the same question marks in that they are both old and often injured despite elite years this year and really good years last year.
Quinn Ewers and Jaxson Dart both are absolute gunslingers with moxy, and confidence. They can make all the throws and Dart can run like a RB. They are just really raw and would take time to develop but could possibly be something great in the right situation.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 14, 2023, 12:49:54 PMI would say 3 right now. Rather that's Maye, Daniels, and Mccarthy, or Williams, Maye and Daniels it's hard to tell right now.
J: Really nice post. As of today I agree completely, but there is a lot of time between now and draft day. Bob