This is The Athletic's Dan Duggan's response to a reader question on this topic:
FWIW I think his explanation is as fair as any, mainly because he has solid facts and data to support what he is saying.
How come with the same offensive line and the same receivers, Taylor and DeVito can throw downfield, but Jones can't (or doesn't)? — Jeff B.
Let's start with some qualifiers since there surely will be objections to the "same offensive line and the same receivers" aspect of your question. Jones didn't have left tackle Andrew Thomas for most of his six starts, and running back Saquon Barkley was missing for three games. But Taylor also didn't have Thomas, while DeVito hasn't had tight end Darren Waller. Jones had the worst protection of the trio, but the offensive line is still not a good unit despite some recent improvement. The bottom line is it's not a great sign if a bunch of qualifiers are necessary to compare the performance of a $160 million quarterback to a journeyman backup and an undrafted rookie.
Now, to the crux of your question, it's an alarming point. Just 8.1 percent of Jones' passes this season traveled 20-plus yards in the air. That would be tied with Panthers rookie Bryce Young for the lowest rate in the league if Jones had enough attempts to qualify. By comparison, DeVito is at 10.5 percent, and Taylor is at 12.6 percent.
DeVito (12) and Taylor (10) have more completions of 20-plus yards than Jones (9), despite Jones having 55 more attempts than DeVito and 73 more attempts than Taylor. And this isn't an aberration. Jones ranked 32rd out of 33 qualifying passers last season with a 5.9 percent rate of 20-plus air-yard passes and tied for 30th of 30 qualifying passers in 2021 with a 7.5 percent rate. From 2020-23, his 7.5 percent rate of attempts 20-plus yards in the air ranks last among 44 qualifying quarterbacks. He was at 11.8 percent as a rookie in 2019.
Jones has become gun-shy, and that's a problem. Daboll wants a quarterback who lets it rip. He highlighted the "high-level" hole shot against Cover-2 DeVito threw to wide receiver Jalin Hyatt against the Patriots in Week 12. Those throws are there every game, and the backups have been willing to take those shots. For some reason, Jones hasn't pulled the trigger as often.
Seems to be in line with most of us around here have seen too. The backups are playing better, though not spectacularly better, simply because they are willing to throw downfield and Jones is not. Hyatt is going to be a star next season provided they get this kid a QB who will look his direction. At least Devito is willing to just toss one up there and say "screw it Hyatt is down there somewhere". Because that kid is good enough to come down with those more often than not. They just have to give him the chance.
Quote from: Gmo11 on December 08, 2023, 12:43:24 PMSeems to be in line with most of us around here have seen too. The backups are playing better, though not spectacularly better, simply because they are willing to throw downfield and Jones is not. Hyatt is going to be a star next season provided they get this kid a QB who will look his direction. At least Devito is willing to just toss one up there and say "screw it Hyatt is down there somewhere". Because that kid is good enough to come down with those more often than not. They just have to give him the chance.
Great players make great plays. The QB
MUST take deep shots to get the defense to back off the line. Hit on a couple and they rethink their plan to crowd the line. Now you have Saquon and play-action at your disposal and a diverse attack. Dink-and-dunk scares no one. It's almost like a prevent offense.
Taking deep shots when the opponents are playing capable man for man equals interceptions.
Mr. Danial Jones, when healthy, probably has the physical abilities of, say, the Jersey Kid. Maybe even better. But he is proven thus far to be comparatively fragile. Look at how long it took the New Jersey Jets to lose a season betting on a good, but fragile, QB.; four, count 'em, 4 snaps.
There's something to be said for durability.
Go flag-free, Big Blue!
It's pretty clear that he has forgone any semblance of risk for safer throws. The thing is he wasn't like this when he first came to the NFL, but he's clearly in his head about minimizing risk over anything else. You have to have at least some gunslinger in you to work in the NFL and it seems like he has just completely eliminated that from his game.
I don't care about equivacators excuses..blah blah.about Jones anymore. The organization and him failed. OVER!!!!
DeVito has thrown better in 2 starts than Jones ever did. Tyrod too.
It all begs the question at the end of the season ... "Now what?" We've already heard the politically correct story out of Schoen and Daboll; however, we all know better in that there is a hidden caveat built into that answer. The QBs on the roster next season will look different than this season and the caveat will be revealed.
What that caveat is, take your best guess until then.
Peace!
Apparently, Daboll and Schoen have no issues with DJ because he's named their starter next season and it's TBD if they even draft a QB. When Eli comes out with a statement, I suspect that he was asked to support a decision that has already been made. It's ok to discuss this on a forum but I don't know what purpose it serves for a Beat to put it out unless it's to send a message to DJ that he needs to up his game.
Quote from: spiderblue43 on December 08, 2023, 01:45:22 PMI don't care about equivacators excuses..blah blah.about Jones anymore. The organization and him failed. OVER!!!!
DeVito has thrown better in 2 starts than Jones ever did. Tyrod too.
Before you bury him , just think back to Geno Smith and his travails .
I think we had all noticed a while ago that Jones' indecisiveness and willingness to throw the ball was the biggest problem
Quote from: Uni on December 08, 2023, 02:57:46 PMI think we had all noticed a while ago that Jones' indecisiveness and willingness to throw the ball was the biggest problem
Uni: I agree. The question is why? What is he seeing or not seeing? What are they asking him to do, nor not do, and how is he interpreting those instructions?
Duggan mostly puts aside whether all three QB's had the "same" OL and "same" receivers. But note the final paragraph, where Duggan IMO makes an assumption...
"Jones has become gun-shy, and that's a problem.
Daboll wants a quarterback who lets it rip. He highlighted the "high-level" hole shot against Cover-2 DeVito threw to wide receiver Jalin Hyatt against the Patriots in Week 12. Those throws are there every game, and the backups have been willing to take those shots. For some reason, Jones hasn't pulled the trigger as often."
Daboll never said that, but Duggan bases his conclusion on that assumption. His conclusion is IMO just an opinion. The mere fact that Daboll "highlighted" a great pass by DeVito does NOT support a conclusion that "Jones has become gun-shy" or that Daboll wants a QB who let's it rip. The ONLY way we'll know if Daboll and company agree with Duggan's conclusion is by what they do when Jones comes back, or if they trade Jones in the off-season, etc.
Long story short: it's faulty logic to assume that the head coach's praise of a nice throw by one QB is an indictment of another QB.
Bob
He doesn't process fast enough and doesn't throw with anticipation. These windows to throw are fractions of a second. Oftentimes, they can only be anticipated because you really don't have enough time to actually see anyone open. Jones will only throw the ball if the receiver is wide open, a kind of open that is uncommon in the the NFL and the window for these opportunities closes real quick. Hesitate and you're lost. Jones is always hesitating.
Quote from: Uni on December 08, 2023, 03:36:39 PMHe doesn't process fast enough and doesn't throw with anticipation. These windows to throw are fractions of a second. Oftentimes, they can only be anticipated because you really don't have enough time to actually see anyone open. Jones will only throw the ball if the receiver is wide open, a kind of open that is uncommon in the the NFL and the window for these opportunities closes real quick. Hesitate and you're lost. Jones is always hesitating.
Uni: So true about the apparent lack of anticipation. THAT is not the definition of gun-shy. It shows lack of confidence in what he sees, IMO.
Maybe I'm being "picky" but regarding for the bold print, although hesitation can be a symptom of "gun-shy-ness" but it can also be an indication of lack of confidence.
So for me, at least, the jury is out concerning the hesitation aspect, but I have no doubt about lack of anticipation because I see it done CORRECTLY by many other NFL QB's each week. That includes DeVito. And it is more crucial to DeVito's success vis-a-vis Jones, IMO, because DeVito's arm is not as strong as Jones arm. The stronger your arm, the more you can hesitate.
Bob
Quote from: Ed Vette on December 08, 2023, 01:53:37 PMApparently, Daboll and Schoen have no issues with DJ because he's named their starter next season and it's TBD if they even draft a QB. When Eli comes out with a statement, I suspect that he was asked to support a decision that has already been made. It's ok to discuss this on a forum but I don't know what purpose it serves for a Beat to put it out unless it's to send a message to DJ that he needs to up his game.
Ed....remember we're not listening to the likes of Reese or Gettlemen neither of whom had a poker face. By March every offseason nearly everyone knew who are pick would be in April.
I am not convinced that they are sticking with DJ despite their consistent "conviction".
Honestly, that's the way I want my FO to behave...surprise me in April like it's Christmas morning...with a shiny new Quarterback or another stud for the Edge.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
I get the feeling that Jones knows he somehow fleeced the giants for 40 mil, and now he's too scared to expose himself for what he is, so he won't take the shots downfield because he constantly misses those and knows it makes him look real bad
Quote from: Ed Vette on December 08, 2023, 01:53:37 PMApparently, Daboll and Schoen have no issues with DJ because he's named their starter next season
If you are referring to what Schoen said in his presser a couple weeks back, I personally didn't take those comments to be as committal as the above sounds. There was no way he was going to get up there and say "I don't expect Jones to be starting for us next year, even if he is healthy." The fact that he said what he did did not convey to me that they were firmly committed to that decision. In fact, he made it very clear that the QB position "needs to be addressed" and that he was open to possibly drafting a QB with a high first round pick. Obviously that doesn't mean they definitely will, and even if they do, I'm aware that Jones could still end up starting some or all of the 2024 season, but you don't publicly leave the door open to drafting a QB with a high first round pick if you're 100% certain you love your current guy. I never heard Reese talk like that when Eli was the QB.
As for Eli's comments about Jones, I don't know that I'm convinced that was some coordinated thing with the Giants. And even if it was, I'm still not convinced that means Jones is their definite starter next year. The position seems completely up in the air to me right now. Schoen's comments felt more like GM-speak than a genuine, rock-solid commitment to the starting lineup 10 months from now.
Just my two cents.
Quote from: Brooklyn Dave on December 08, 2023, 02:21:55 PMBefore you bury him , just think back to Geno Smith and his travails .
Geno only played 30 games, not the 60+ Jones has played. Geno is also 1 out of 800 qbs to play the position to be labeled a bust and then play better.
So don't bury Jones for 5 years of horrible qb play and pray that hes the second Qb out of 766 to be absolutely horrible then good.
Hmm...
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on December 08, 2023, 05:05:22 PMIf you are referring to what Schoen said in his presser a couple weeks back, I personally didn't take those comments to be as committal as the above sounds. There was no way he was going to get up there and say "I don't expect Jones to be starting for us next year, even if he is healthy." The fact that he said what he did did not convey to me that they were firmly committed to that decision. In fact, he made it very clear that the QB position "needs to be addressed" and that he was open to possibly drafting a QB with a high first round pick. Obviously that doesn't mean they definitely will, and even if they do, I'm aware that Jones could still end up starting some or all of the 2024 season, but you don't publicly leave the door open to drafting a QB with a high first round pick if you're 100% certain you love your current guy. I never heard Reese talk like that when Eli was the QB.
As for Eli's comments about Jones, I don't know that I'm convinced that was some coordinated thing with the Giants. And even if it was, I'm still not convinced that means Jones is their definite starter next year. The position seems completely up in the air to me right now. Schoen's comments felt more like GM-speak than a genuine, rock-solid commitment to the starting lineup 10 months from now.
Just my two cents.
The way the NFL is trending if Daniels is there when they pick I think they have to take him.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on December 08, 2023, 05:22:46 PMThe way the NFL is trending if Daniels is there when they pick I think they have to take him.
Based on what I know today, he is my choice too assuming we can't have Maye or Williams.
Jones is bad. That's it. It stinks we're stuck with him another year but hopefully things work out in the long run.
Quote from: Brooklyn Dave on December 08, 2023, 02:21:55 PMBefore you bury him , just think back to Geno Smith and his travails .
I'm confused why posters continue to use Geno Smith as a poster child for hope, as it relates to DJ's maturation; it's an Apples-to-Jeep comparison. Smith had 34 total starts before experiencing a career year in 2022. In contrast, DJ has 59; in fact, before the season started, DJ had 3 MORE starts than Smith. Geno has also reverted to his prior 17 game averages:
4133 Yards 21 TD 13 INT 64% 89.1 RTG
There's not a single example in 35 years of a QB magically becoming significantly more than he's demonstrated in his first 30 games; yet, the conversation persist. DJ is who he is, and has always been.
Jones played well under Schumur. Remember DannyDimes
Joe Judge came in and re-directed Jones to the low to high pass selection
It cut down on Jones turnovers, but induced a sleepy offense
Dump it off, take the safe throw, which, of course, defenses were only too happy to let him have
Judge long gone, Jones continues to follow Joe Judge's advice
I was watching a Kurt Warner interview with Joe Buck on You Tube last night
The last thing he asked Kurt was what makes a good QB prospect
Kurt answered
- toughness
- accuracy
- touch
- ball security
- quick mental processing
- intelligence
- a high to low shot selection
"and a million other attributes" hard to quantify. "thats why good college QBs are so hard to identify" said Warner
Jones fails and bails on so many of these things that make a top QB
Tommy D, it appears so far, is the better prospect in many many ways. Unfortunately most fans just dont believe the organization could have been so blinded to Jones issues. I can only believe what my eyes tell me
Jones is shell shocked and cannot shake off the sacks like DeVito can
Jones is intelligent and tough.....the other attributes not so much
Jones would have seen the door long ago but he has one huge important fan- John Mara
Jones had a decent season under Shurmur if you choose to pretend all those turnovers never happened.
I continue to support Jones "to the death," believe his case is still defensible, and view some members as having been "too harsh" and impatient with Jones (which is any member's privilege... opinions are why we have this site).
BUT
There is a time limit for everything in pro ball and, when we look back on it in the future, the ACL likely will be seen as the last straw or tipping point for all but the most ardent Jones defenders/supporters. The clock had almost struck midnight for Jones anyway, IMO, and ACL injuries take so long to heal that SOME sort of response by the team will be absolutely necessary.
Ironically, the only thing that might save him would be if DeVito plays well enough to be viewed as Jones' replacement. Not likely, but not impossible. Stranger things have happened in the NFL. If that occurs then Jones will be the league's most expensive backup for a year and they could even keep Taylor (why shouldn't they; he never played horribly and comes cheap).
Bob
PS. IMO the best thing Jones can do with all this spare time is to go back and review ALL of his game tapes from the every year and TAKE NOTES about how his play has "changed" under the various coaching staffs, listing the positives and negatives, and then decide for himself what type of QB he is going to be in the future (assuming he HAS a future somewhere in the league) and then go to Daboll, announce his findings, and tell the team to trade him if they don't want the style of play he plans to offer once his injury has healed. Make THEM sh!t or get off the pot. It's a solid career move, IMO.