I am talking round one, but feel free to expand on the question.
What do you see as the best-case (realistic) and worst-case (realistic) scenarios on how the draft plays out in round one for the Giants?
we trade down a bit in round one and still get one of the 3 best wr's or a truly stud OL. then with the other pick in the trade down, we get another starter.
Worst case scenario: The top 3 WRs are off the board, and we draft a QB and then wait two or three years to find out if we got it right. As Bruce Feldman pointed out in this morning's video - "more than 50% of QBs taking at the top of the draft, flame out"
Best case scenario: Four QBs and an OT come off the board with the first 5 picks and Harrison lands in our lap!
Really tough question to answer, because what one sees as "bad" or "good" in the immediate days following the draft may look completely different three years later.
For example, I felt great about Evan Neal and great about Thibodeaux. I now feel terrible about Evan Neal and good but not necessarily quite great about Thibodeaux. Clearly there are other examples we can come up with.
If we're going just by how I'm going to feel in early May about everything, I'll take my best shot:
Best case: One of the top four QBs falls to the six spot and it happens to be someone our front office had a very high grade on.
Worst case: We end up with an O lineman, a defensive player, or Bowers and don't get any QB in this draft, forcing us to go into the season with a hobbled Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and a highly suspect cast of offensive skill players.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 13, 2024, 10:40:13 AMReally tough question to answer, because what one sees as "bad" or "good" in the immediate days following the draft may look completely different three years later.
For example, I felt great about Evan Neal and great about Thibodeaux. I now feel terrible about Evan Neal and good but not necessarily quite great about Thibodeaux. Clearly there are other examples we can come up with.
If we're going just by how I'm going to feel in early May about everything, I'll take my best shot:
Best case: One of the top four QBs falls to the six spot and it happens to be someone our front office had a very high grade on.
Worst case: We end up with an O lineman, a defensive player, or Bowers and don't get any QB in this draft, forcing us to go into the season with a hobbled Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and a highly suspect cast of offensive skill players.
That is pretty much how I feel. Whether the Giants go the easy, safe route and not get a top young QB prospect will, to me, just reinforce how stodgy and stuck in the the past the organization is. But if they do gamble on a QB in the first round, we fans won't know the results, good or bad, for at least a couple of years. In any case, whoever they choose won't impact 2024 much. It's beyond 2024 that matters most.
Absolute best case:
Trade down and stay inside the top 15 garnering either a 2nd and 4th this draft or a 3rd in this and a 1st next year.
With the pick we traded for, a top 10 receiver or a top 3 OL.
Worst case:
Trade up for a QB, giving up a 3rd this year and at least a 1st pick next year.
When the chances are low (IMO) that any of their choices are franchise changing.
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Best - trade back and still get your QB plus a first next year and a mid-round this year.
Worst - trade up and give up draft capital.
Best case scenario: Draft a high impact player that will rank one of the best at whatever position he plays at.
Worst case scenario: Trade back too far and miss out a high impact player
Worst case: Going into year 6 of a backup Qb being our Qb.
Best case: The draft falls like this
Bears- Williams
Commanders- Mccarthy Reasoning is that Peter's was Asst GM with the 49ers for the past 6 years and saw what Qbs that they went for, Garrapolo and Purdy etc, he may see a supercharged Purdy.
Patriots-take one of the two remaining
Giants-took whoever is left between Maye and Daniels doing kart wheels to the podium with the 4th overall pick that they get from AZ for a 2024 1st, 2nd, and 2025 1st.
Our worst case is that whoever we pick at 6 does not work out. It is not all that unlikely given Thibodeaux is good but not (yet) great, a double not a home run. Neal is bad (so far). Another mistake gets magnified if the pick is a QB as it will delay hope for at least three more years.
Our best case is whoever we pick justifies their draft slot and has a long career with us including multiple all-pro recognition. If they are a QB it has a multiplier effect but an all-pro at WR or CB still makes us better.
Fingers crossed we hit a home run with whatever pick we make and they help raise our level.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 13, 2024, 02:37:19 PMWorst case: Going into year 6 of a backup Qb being our Qb.
Best case: The draft falls like this
Bears- Williams
Commanders- Mccarthy Reasoning is that Peter's was Asst GM with the 49ers for the past 6 years and saw what Qbs that they went for, Garrapolo and Purdy etc, he may see a supercharged Purdy.
Patriots-take one of the two remaining
Giants-took whoever is left between Maye and Daniels doing kart wheels to the podium with the 4th overall pick that they get from AZ for a 2024 1st, 2nd, and 2025 1st.
If any QB falls to 6....I would be willing to bet its Maye.
Quote from: brownelvis54 on April 13, 2024, 03:09:52 PMIf any QB falls to 6....I would be willing to bet its Maye.
From your keyboard to God's eyes.
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 13, 2024, 03:29:48 PMFrom your keyboard to God's eyes.
Ed, it will not surprise me if Chicago takes Daniels with the #1 pick. Either way, Washington will take Daniels or Williams.
1-Williams to Chicago
2-Daniels to Washington
3-New England takes McCarthy
4-Arizona takes Harrison Jr
5-Chargers take Nabers
Thats how I see it
Quote from: brownelvis54 on April 13, 2024, 03:39:48 PMEd, it will not surprise me if Chicago takes Daniels with the #1 pick. Either way, Washington will take Daniels or Williams.
1-Williams to Chicago
2-Daniels to Washington
3-New England takes McCarthy
4-Arizona takes Harrison Jr
5-Chargers take Nabers
Thats how I see it
So no trade up by any other teams? Minnesota needs a QB and the Raiders too.
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 13, 2024, 03:43:25 PMSo no trade up by any other teams? Minnesota needs a QB and the Raiders too.
I see NE as the best trade partner for Minnesota. Their roster is the worst in the NFL. A rookie QB will struggle like Bryce Young this past year. They have so many holes and need draft capital. Arizona and/or Chargers lose our on the top receivers if they trade back. Don't see them doing that unless it's with the Giants.
Quote from: katkavage on April 13, 2024, 04:00:26 PMI see NE as the best trade partner for Minnesota. Their roster is the worst in the NFL. A rookie QB will struggle like Bryce Young this past year. They have so many holes and need draft capital. Arizona and/or Chargers lose our on the top receivers if they trade back. Don't see them doing that unless it's with the Giants.
Could the Chargers be looking to draft an OT and moving back they can do that with Minn and pick up the 11th and 23rd pick and get an OT and WR?
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 13, 2024, 04:19:52 PMCould the Chargers be looking to draft an OT and moving back they can do that with Minn and pick up the 11th and 23rd pick and get an OT and WR?
But they will miss out on the top three receivers. And they have no receivers now. None.
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 13, 2024, 03:43:25 PMSo no trade up by any other teams? Minnesota needs a QB and the Raiders too.
Could be, but I doubt it. Rumor has it Vikings love Penix. They could get him at 11 and at 23 het a Right Tackle for there Left handed QB. The Raiders have Minshaw for now the Odonnall. They could select Bo Nix with there pick
Quote from: brownelvis54 on April 13, 2024, 04:49:05 PMCould be, but I doubt it. Rumor has it Vikings love Penix. They could get him at 11 and at 23 het a Right Tackle for there Left handed QB. The Raiders have Minshaw for now the Odonnall. They could select Bo Nix with there pick
Penix is a better fit for the Vikes than McCarthy or Maye in my opinion.
Quote from: londonblue on April 13, 2024, 03:05:20 PMOur worst case is that whoever we pick at 6 does not work out. It is not all that unlikely given Thibodeaux is good but not (yet) great, a double not a home run. Neal is bad (so far). Another mistake gets magnified if the pick is a QB as it will delay hope for at least three more years.
Our best case is whoever we pick justifies their draft slot and has a long career with us including multiple all-pro recognition. If they are a QB it has a multiplier effect but an all-pro at WR or CB still makes us better.
Fingers crossed we hit a home run with whatever pick we make and they help raise our level.
I'm with you. Best and worse scenarios happen after the draft. Because when it comes down to it no one knows how any of these guys will pan out.
Quote from: katkavage on April 13, 2024, 04:35:21 PMBut they will miss out on the top three receivers. And they have no receivers now. None.
Exactly, thats why I said
1-Williams to Chicago
2-Daniels to Washington
3-New England takes McCarthy
4-Arizona takes Harrison Jr
5-Chargers take Nabers
Quote from: brownelvis54 on April 13, 2024, 07:14:56 PMExactly, thats why I said
1-Williams to Chicago
2-Daniels to Washington
3-New England takes McCarthy
4-Arizona takes Harrison Jr
5-Chargers take Nabers
So we'd get Maye without a trade.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 13, 2024, 07:16:25 PMSo we'd get Maye without a trade.
Basically, yes. Dave I believe if one QB falls to 6...it will be Maye.
I think the Vikings are drafting Penix
Below are my four "best case scenarios" (in order of best-ness) and my one "worst case scenario" for the Giants' upcoming 1st-round pick:
Best case: (a) they want a WR and their absolute favorite falls to them; (b) they want a QB and their absolute favorite falls to them; (c) their favorites are gone and the Vikings come a-callin' offering not only this year's two 1st-round picks but also next year's first rounder; (d) their favorites are gone and they draft the best player at one of the other positions (likely an OL) and he turns out to be good enough to start on opening day.
Worst case: Whomever they select sucks.
Bob
Worst: They take Bowers at 6.
Quote from: coggs on April 15, 2024, 09:10:18 AMWorst: They take Bowers at 6.
I have heard the issue with TEs like Bowers is that offensive coordinators need to change their offenses and scheme to include their special TE. Many offensive coordinators start off scheming to include their special TE, but over time, they tend to drift back to what makes them comfortable.
Worst scenario Jones is the QB, and history repeats he gets hurt again in game 5, enough to be out for the year, and maybe retire. They manage to win a meaningless game at the end of the year losing out on the college darling QB for that year who becomes an All-Pro. Best scenario our first pick becomes All-Pro, and the other picks all contribute to a growing, winning atmosphere.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 15, 2024, 09:12:13 AMI have heard the issue with TEs like Bowers is that offensive coordinators need to change their offenses and scheme to include their special TE. Many offensive coordinators start off scheming to include their special TE, but over time, they tend to drift back to what makes them comfortable.
Rich: Feldman said essentially that he is worth the pick. I agree although I think it should be the last option for the Giants behind WR, QB and OL (in that order). As for molding an offense around him, IMO that could be an issue. I am not aware of any "special plays" or other offensive adjustments having been inserted into the Giants' playbook to account for acquisition of Waller... and he is a proven commodity. So it's unlikely they would do it for a rookie, or draft a guy that they didn't believe was ready to start now with the offense as it is. Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 15, 2024, 09:57:58 AMRich: Feldman said essentially that he is worth the pick. I agree although I think it should be the last option for the Giants behind WR, QB and OL (in that order). As for molding an offense around him, IMO that could be an issue. I am not aware of any "special plays" or other offensive adjustments having been inserted into the Giants' playbook to account for acquisition of Waller... and he is a proven commodity. So it's unlikely they would do it for a rookie, or draft a guy that they didn't believe was ready to start now with the offense as it is. Bob
The other problem with that approach is what happens when you build your offense around a special TE and he gets hurt? Do you toss out all your TE-centric plays? Once a season starts teams have limited ability to significantly change their offense. They can make adjustments and tweaks, but not wholesale changes.
For anyone who has closely followed Bowers, does he primarily run TE Centric plays? Or is he just a big Wr mismatch?
2nd worst: they take Nix or Pennix at 6
3rd worst: give up a boatload to move to 4th to take McCarthy.
Best: They trade down to 8-10 and still get one of the big WR or OT.
2nd best. draft a wr or ot at 6.
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 15, 2024, 10:19:37 AMFor anyone who has closely followed Bowers, does he primarily run TE Centric plays? Or is he just a big Wr mismatch?
A little of both. He can go out like an X-receiver, go down the middle of the field, or take short dump offs the way Witten used to do when he single-handedly beat the Giants in years past. He can block (and is willing), but that is not his forte. He's basically a unique/super offensive weapon to be used in any scheme, and is very valuable as a decoy to open up other WRs. He is not injury prone and the only injury he's had over the years is a high ankle sprain and had "tightrope surgery" in which he returned to the field 2 weeks later. Tough guy who isn't fragile