Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 27, 2021, 03:32:39 PM
I have to say, the right employs literally every logical fallacy in the book to further it's agenda. 

That's pretty condescending to say that. How is having an opinion "an agenda". What exactly do you think is the "right wing agenda"???

Before I say what I think it is, be it known that I'm a registered Independent because I despise both parties - switched to "Ind" in 1972 - however, I'm fiscally conservative, socially open minded, and probably would be classified by the left and those needing to stereotype everyone into a group as a "Radical Right Wing Hate Mongering Racist Bastard" - Never mind that my heart and my home overflows with love - not just for each other, but our neighbors and acquaintances. I'm a born again Christian who attempts to emulate Christ's life, but fail often, but not for lack of trying. My siblings have interracial children and grandchildren and we don't see color - but if I listen to CNN, that's all I see. Pisses me off.

Here's my right wing agenda:

- individual freedom without an overbearing government bureaucracy spying on me and always telling how to live (according to their standards)
- the right to have an opinion and even speak that opinion openly - even if it doesn't correspond with the WOKE crowd - without being attacked
- I want the government to be efficient, cut costs, become lean, and be fiscally responsible so that my grandchildren and great grandchildren stand a chance to have a good life without being taxed into oblivion
- I love academics and am distressed at the failings of our schools that have switched from teaching kids how to think for themselves, and instead indoctrinate them with left wing socialist propaganda they call "progressive" and now we have a generation of kids who are dead last in math and science compared to all civil societies, but have been taught that all white people are inherently racists and all blacks and minorities are victims of incredible hatred. Saddens me that politicians own the teachers who then fan the flames of racism just to get more democrat politicians into office
- I am a student of history and therefore reject all forms of communism and socialism (communism lite) after seeing the utter failure of every attempt, each subsequent try thinking they are smarter than the last one the failed at it
- I love liberty and I love my country. I would die for it (not that I want to, but I would)
- I want my children, grandchildren to be free from an oppressive all-controlling government like that in China, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, etc.
- In short: I just want to be free - free from harassment from the left, free to keep enough of my earnings to survive comfortably, a free from unelected faceless bureaucrats who tell me how to think and how to live. Screw them! 

Personally, I don't try to persuade my liberal friends to join me or my way of thinking or to vote the way I choose to vote in the privacy of a booth. Every person deserves to vote how they want and think how they want - this is America for heaven's sake (or used to be). On the other hand, I figure if they are intelligent, they'll eventually come around on their own - they usually do

A couple of articles that show phenomena that contributes to climate change...and of course, to help us feel even more helpless...LOL

https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-is-tracking-the-mysterious-evolving-anomaly-in-earth-s-magnetic-field

https://scitechdaily.com/space-hurricane-observed-over-the-earth-for-the-first-time/

The sun is a fascinating entity
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/what-will-solar-cycle-25-look-like-sun-prediction-model

The problem with "experts" is that every scientist thinks they are one. Never met a Phd holding scientist that thought of himself as anything other than an "expert". There is actually no truthful definition for the term "expert", as every individual has elements of expertise, but it flies in the face of other "experts" with differing views producing different results. As in theology, politics, and science - it is easy to find two experts who passionately disagree on issues and are 180 degrees of each other on what is a "fact" and what is not. As Arthur C. Clarke once said, "For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert." In short: science is not and has never been settled - apart from the fundamental laws (gravity, thermodynamics, etc) and is a journey in process with an incredible number of ideas and viewpoints that are not necessarily (or even close) to the same. Knowledge is a building block still being built and it's built on the foundation of all previous thinkers over centuries. It's why we no longer bleed out people at the local barber shop to control high blood pressure and why we no longer drink raw milk. Hence, think for yourself and listen to all sides and make up your own mind who or what you want to believe

Albert Einstein stated, "We should be on our guard not to overestimate science and scientific methods when it is a question of human problems, and we should not assume that experts are the only ones who have the right to express themselves on questions affecting society."

One of the problems that concerns me with the whole issue of climate change, is that almost every laboratory that has degreed and respected (by peers) scientists are financed without producing something that can be subsequently sold for profit and thereby, cannot sustain themselves in a capitalistic society unless they choose a path like developing pharmaceuticals or high tech inventions. Whether on a college campus or in the many private laboratories, labs whose sole purpose is to "discover" and argue ideas have to be funded by some entity other than rely on self-sustaining profit. Nearly every penny that supports and sustains these scientists come from the government run by politicians. Scientists know that providing new evidence that does not support a political cause (thus, politicians seeking power) could be kissing their careers goodbye or even losing all funding to keep their lab afloat. Even college campus labs get government funding whether indirectly or directly that is tied heavily to scientific research. Every scientist knows who is buttering their bread and whose hands hold their future and it's good not to rock the boat of those who hold the purse strings. In fact, it is extremely advantageous to give credence to the politicians' desired results.

Anyone who thinks "climate change" is purely scientific without extreme political undertones does not understand the financial circle of life for scientists. Sad, but true. Little different now than half a millennia ago when the Pope arrested and imprisoned Galileo for inventing the telescope and proclaiming that earth is not the center of the universe. It pays to keep a finger in the political winds if you are a scientist

Sounds like a really good book Bob. The part ("society

Quote from: squibber on April 26, 2021, 04:27:29 PM
Jolly Blue Giant, I have to go hitting a slow pitch softball over hitting a golf ball although I didn

I will probably regret dragging myself into this discussion, but what the hey. Maybe it will help time pass faster until the Giants are on the clock Thursday night!

Let me start by discussing something we use in engineering called DOE "design of experiments", a method used to determine which combination of variables can create an ultimate predicted outcome. There are a couple types of DOE, the most common and the one I always used: a "traditional" (full factorial experiment) and a quicker, but less accurate method known as the Taguchi method.

To keep it as simple as I can, imagine trying to come up with the ultimate combination of variables for producing tomatoes on a grand scale: Some of the variables include soil composition, soil wetness/dryness, external factors like sun light, wind, humidity, fertilizers, natural chemical elements in the ground, geographic location, etc. A person who doesn't use a designed experiment tries different things (hit and miss method) and might conclude that "this particular fertilizer, in this particular soil, with this particular humidity, etc., produces the ultimate combination for optimum growth, taste, and texture even though it is not the optimal tomato and it cannot be proven that they have found "the best", it's just the best they've found so far. However, using designed experiments can help an engineer come up with an EXACT optimal combination of factors in record time by creating a grid with all the factors (variables) listed and then does what is known as "confounding" the variables. This means changing one or two of the variables and run the test, then do it again while confounding other variables. Using an algorithm and matrix algebra, the ultimate combination can be deciphered in record time after about 5 or 6 confounding attempts and if your math is correct, it will be optimal. All OEM companies producing extremely high tech products use DOE all the time - their future depends on it. As a long time user of DOE, it is always surprising to discover the optimal combination because just using common sense makes one think that one variable controls most of the outcome when just the opposite is true.

Herein lies the rub with climate change (which I do not deny, I just think it's highly politicized to give advantage to certain political groups who are only concerned with cementing power and control over the masses) is that politicians have determined that "carbon dioxide is the monster that must be slain", even though, CO2 is the lifeblood of trees, plants, and most life forms.

Now let's look at some of the variables (factors) that effect climate:

* solar wind which varies from a low of 1400 - 2300+ mph
* constantly changing gamma ray bombardment from the universe
* recurrent and unexpected geomagnetic storms on Earth due to coronal holes in the Sun
* sun bursts (solar flares) which are unpredictable and cause extreme bombardment of x-rays on earth at varying and unpredictable times each year
* varying UV (ultra-violet) rays from the sun
* Earth's irregular orbiting of the sun (we are not on a string and each orbit is different depending on positions of other planets, especially Jupiter and Saturn) Jupiter's size and gravitational pull effects Earth's orbit. Jupiter takes hundreds of years to orbit the sun and is currently the closest it's been since a thousand years before Christ
* the moon's gravity which controls the oceanic tidal movements is constantly changing and the moon is slowly drifting away from Earth

Other factors to consider:

* unbalanced gravitational drag due to geomagnetic field lines in plasmasphere
* fluctuating earth's magnetism (this is a biggie that confounds a lot of scientists)
* constantly shifting and changing ocean currents
* shifting trade winds
* volcano activity
* forest fires
* desertification (expanding deserts) from the removal of the natural vegetation cover and expanding agricultural activities in vulnerable ecosystems which negatively effects the hydrologic cycles (rain and moisture cycles)
* earthquakes (especially those under the waters of the ocean)
* carbon emissions ?
* chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), HCFCs, Freon, halons) causing an expanding hole in the ozone (i.e., man-made aerosol spray cans and Freon based refrigerants..., but also certain solvents, propellants, and foam-blowing agents such as Styrofoam)

In short, you would need a PhD in Heliospheric Physics to know and understand all the variables that effect the climate and there would still be variables not taken into consideration.

Going back to DOE (design of experiments), it would be futile to try to arrange a grid and confound variables to determine which factor combination is causing the most harm because of the sheer number of factors. And the true dilemma is, is that 99% of the variables are out of the reach of human control so they can't confound them anyway and subsequently doing the math.

Keep in mind that the Sun is 1.3 million times larger than earth. It does not have a thermostat and it is constantly changing and has gotten more moody in the last couple of decades. And we have no control over the many types of radiation and foreign elements bathed on earth from the universe and we cannot control the fluctuating magnetism and fluctuating gravity or virtually anything to do with controlling the sun.

For a scientist to conclude that "climate change is due to mankind's carbon footprint" is really, really shortsighted and ignores the reality that green earth thrives with CO2. That is not the same as "pollution" for which I am a warrior against pollution of any sort. CO2 is good - very good! Is too much CO2 bad? We don't know (unless you are a politician or a Hollywood icon speaking from the deck of a yacht or on a private jet) then of course you know....duhhh.

Plants, trees, and vegetation require a lot of carbon dioxide to flourish. A study reported by BBC in 2016 concluded that the increase in carbon dioxide emissions due to the industrial age has made Earth greener. The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2000-3000 GT. The atmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. In essence, 92.5% of the carbon dioxide that contributes to the growth of vegetation comes from the ocean and most of man's contribution to CO2 is infinitesimal in the grand scheme of things.

A couple of points to end my long dragged out point(s):

1) The earth is greener than it has been in centuries as semi-arid areas are turning green and plant growth is at an all time high as well as crop production
2) Statistics show that for each degree of warmer temperature, most countries show a correlation of a healthier and longer life span of a couple years

With all that said, it rubs me the wrong way when a millionaire politician smugly lectures me from his huge mansion or his private jet and wants me to ride a bicycle to work or jam myself into a train like sardines in a can while he lives a life of luxury, eating at 5-stars on the taxpayer dime, being shuttled in limos, and playing grab ass with the pretty people and far, far away from the inconvenience imposed on us as they go laughing all the way to the bank happy to have found a con that works to keep him/her or their party in power and able to lord themselves over us with restrictions that effect none of them.

As far as clean energy, clean water, clean environment - I say let's go all out. Clean is good. Pollution is horrid.

I'm not going to proof this because I have other things to do. I apologize in advance for grammatical and spelling errors.

Quote from: Bob In PA on April 25, 2021, 11:42:52 PM
Jolly: It's a bit like playing ping-pong while standing on the table.  LOL

That's what it seems like to me as well. I love ping pong and I love tennis - sort of a compromise 

Quote from: Bob In PA on April 25, 2021, 02:48:08 PM
Jolly: For me it was once racquetball and tennis (I don't think pickle-ball had been invented back then LOL). These days, it is just tennis, and rarely that.  It's not due to old age but rather to lack of free time.  Bob

I don't think the game is more than a few years old. I've never played it because I've never been around a court and don't even know where I'd find one. I would like to try it though and I suspect I'd really like it because it's less running. Specially now that I'm an old fart!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtCRY67SqvU

New bar room subject:

Racquetball or Squash?

Tennis or Pickleball?

As for me (at 68 years old), I prefer Squash over Racquetball even though I was the Racquetball champ in college for a couple of years. I just don't have the energy and endurance to chase the bouncy racquetball like I used to. Squash is more mental IMO, sorta like playing chess compared to playing checkers. There are no second chances when a ball gets beyond you and bounces back for a second chance to recover like with racquetball. I still play squash on occasion, but have trouble digging the ball out of the bucket or when the ball is too close to the side wall.

I don't have the flexibility, endurance, and eye sight that I used to have and I used to love tennis. Haven't played it in a couple years now. I have never tried pickleball, but it looks right up my ally. Maybe once I get to move to Florida, I'll get to play it. Anyone here have experience with pickleball?

Quote from: philo43 on April 25, 2021, 10:48:38 AM
JBG how true!!!!

I only golf once or twice a year - mostly to hang out with friends and have a couple of beers.  If there is a hazard to the left I hook it it, to the right I slice it.

Did you ever play Genegantslet  back in the day?  They had a hole (long since changed  - can't remember what number) that used to run parallel to Rt 12.  I took out a car's windshield while it was driving up Rt 12 with a wicked slice once.

Yeah, I've played Genny a few times. I mostly play Ely or Maple Hill in Marathon. I try to get out once a week, but my golf partner got in a wreck a few weeks ago and is in bad shape. You may have read about it. He fell asleep on Rt 81 along that stretch across from SUNY Broome and ran into a tractor trailer. The next week, all the large electronic signs on 81 and 17 had things like, "Stay Awake - Live", etc. It's what happens when you try to work 80 hours a week and keep up with his son's soccer games and his daughter's field hockey games. Anyway, last year my grandson got really into golfing so he is now my partner. He pushes me to get out and be active. In the winter, he constantly drags me out to go skiing and he's getting good enough that it's getting hard to keep up with him.

Getting back to Genny. The most memorable shot I had there was one of my shots that dribbled into the water. Very close to the shore line and only in a couple inches of water so it was possible to stand on the bank without getting wet and hitting the submerged ball. I chose a wedge because I was only about 50 yards out from the hole. Anyway, I took a full swing and displaced about 2 gallons of water right on top of my head. I was soaked from head to tail...LOL. My "buddies" really got a kick out of it!

Here's a couple of shots with my grandson (Willowbrook Golf Course, Cortland, NY):

Quote from: Bob In PA on April 25, 2021, 10:13:15 AM
I had intended (but forgot) to make a post "announcing" what even the casual investor probably knows... we are now in "earnings season."

Early next week Microsoft will announce, as will several many major players in major industries, followed in the next two/three weeks by the brunt of all major and minor companies.

IMO, the market's reaction (to both good and bad reports) will tell us what to expect from the over-all stock market for most of the remainder of this year.

Bob

Good point. However, I can't tell you how many companies came back with "higher than expected earnings", whose stock fell 10% the next day. It's very confusing. Market is extremely volatile and it's hard to know where to go. I bought a couple thousand bucks in SKLZ (Skillz) for no other reason than I read in Barons that Cathy Wood (of ARK investments) bought a few million shares and she has a reputation of getting high returns. The next day it went up 33% and I sold my shares and banked the profit. Revenue is in the red and the shares were down from a high of 43.72 on February 5th, and was at 12.55 a share on April 20th. It's now about 19.00 and I don't dare buy back in even though ARK doubled down and bought more than a million shares after the 33% bump.

Regardless, I am aware that companies have been releasing (or preparing to release) their quarterlies, but it almost seems as if it has little to do with things - especially when I see a profitable up and coming technology company surprising analysts with higher than expected earnings only to have their share price dive the next day or stocks with negative revenue going up 

Interesting subject as I too had stains on my hardwood floors. I ended up renting equipment to refinish the main floors. It took a few days of prep and sanding (especially getting into the corners where the machine didn't reach) and then spent hours on my hands and knees putting on three coats of satin polyurethane over a 2-week period. Lotta work!

Since we are sitting on a bar stool, here's a question:

What is a better feeling - hitting a home run and the feel of the bat in your hands when you know you "got it" or, hitting the sweet spot with your driver and dropping the ball exactly where you wanted it about 350 yards away?

I really want to know because I have never had a drive like that, although in HS and college (and later in life, fast pitch softball) I hit multiple HRs and it is a great feeling - simply an incredible feeling. For some reason, my hand eye coordination was such that seeing/timing/shifting weight at a 90 mph fastball coming towards me came easy to me, but for the life of me, I can't seem to consistently hit my driver like I'd like. With thousands of swings, I've hit some solid shots, but the ball hooks or slices or just ends up lost in the woods. Any good feeling in my hands are erased by knowing the ball is probably lost. The harder I try, the more likely I am to worm hop it or skull it so bad that it's embarrassing. And if there's water, my balls automatically seek it out and grasp it from the air - so consistently that it seems like a conspiracy from the Almighty! So, in order to play a reasonable round of golf, I take easy 3/4 swings to let the club do the work while my golf partners out drive me by a hundred yards and tell me lovely things like "hike up your skirt next time" or ask me "does your husband play?", etc. I can't "grip it and rip it" because if I try to hit the ball long and hard, I never marry that sweet spot on the club head with the ball. It looks so easy and people tell me my hands are right, my stance is right, and that my swing is exactly what it should be. So why can't I hit the @#$ little white ball like I used to hit baseballs and the ole Dudley softballs? I want to know that feeling of driving a ball like an amateur DeChambeau

There has been considerable change in the market since the latter part of January, early February. If you were in tech stocks, you probably took a beating throughout March. I don't know if the GameStop fiasco caused the shift, but something put the fear of God in the big investors - and it wasn't the sudden rise to 1.5% ROI in the bond market. The correction took down a lot of up and coming technology companies like Plug Power and QuantumScape with 50%+ drops overnight. And of course, there was a change at the White House that threw uncertainty into the mix as the changes make it appear that heavy inflation is in the future - which in turn caused the bond market to rise. But of course, who wants to tie up their money in bonds that will return less than 2% if inflation kicks in many multiple times that? 

In the past, stocks were trading at a premium regardless of whether they had revenue or not and regardless of their PE ratio. Now, with the correction in the rear view mirror (knock on wood), the "corrected" tech sector should be back on track - just not so wild. However, I would avoid companies that show little or negative revenue and a high PE ratio as many players are changing to looking at "value" rather than getting caught up in the next newest technology. There just won't be as many 200-800% one-year returns with so many stocks like there was in 2020. If you had a few thousand in Tesla last year, you were golden and probably more than quadrupled your wealth in your portfolio. Now, it's getting really weird out there. Some say Tesla is going to 3,000 dollars - others say 1,000 - and many others say it's so overpriced it is due for a major crash. Dittos with cryptocurrencies, EV stocks, Pot stocks, etc. Will BitCoin go to 100k, or will new regulations cut it in half? No one knows. Tread carefully!

Thanks for the tip. I haven't heard of it and haven't spent a whole lot of time checking out HBO...with baseball season back, the Knicks looking like a real team, the Masters last week, and of course the upcoming draft. So many sports going on (finally) that I can get back into my old habits. Right now, my TV is on NFL Network pretty much round the clock except when games are on. And of course, today is the big wreck - I mean big race - at Talladega.

Anyway, I'm always up for a "whodunit" and HBO does a good job. I better set my DVR up to catch the show from the beginning. Again, thanks as I'm always trying to find television worthy of watching

I used to travel for a living while auditing suppliers so I tried a little bit of everything. Hard to list them in order, but I love:

1) Creole / Cajin (when in New Orleans or Baton Rouge)
2) Seafood (when in Boston or Maine)
3) Japanese (when in Tokyo - or locally at the Kampai in Vestal)
4) American BBQ (too many to list, I like my ribs dry or wet - favorite of all time is in downtown Minneapolis on Market Street called Market Bar-B-Que where the ribs are so good they don't even put sauce on them)
5) German (if you're ever in Springfield, Mass, definitely check out "the Fort" [as the locals call it ] actual name is "The Student Prince"). Restaurant is in an old fort left over from the Revolution and the restaurant was started by Hitler's private chef who fled Germany when he saw what was going down. Has the second largest stein collection in the world. Food is out of this world.

Not a huge Italian food guy. I like it, but I don't love it.