NGT: Can the Cowboys be a contender with Dak Prescott as their QB?

[MightyGiants]

@Jaime shot me a text after Dak's second INT, saying something to the effect of- "reminds us of why he was a 4th round pick."   Dak is with the Cowboys for likely the next 2 seasons (most definitely next).   The Cowboys were a very talented team this year, yet they could only pull of a playoff win against the Bucs (who entered the playoffs with a losing record). 

Dak is going to be taking a roughly $50 mil cap hit the next two seasons for the Boys.  I really wonder if the Cowboys have peaked and will start trending down.  I could see this team decline as they have to shed talent.  It will be even worse for Dallas if they lose the best coach they have in DC Dan Quinn.

[Ed Vette]

There's a lesson to be learned there.

[MightyGiants]

There's a lesson to be learned there.

There could be a few. 

The Cowboys franchise tagged Dak, which ultimately drove up his contract numbers. 

Of course, the other issue is paying a non-elite QB.   

Another lesson involves kicking the can down the road by backloading contracts (like they did with Dak)

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I've always thought Dak was overrated and was shocked when he got a contract he did as if he was the second coming of Tom Brady. I think Dallas felt as if they had been stuck with second rate QBs for so long that Dak was really special. The team has (had) a world-class O-line, great receivers, and Zeke to help Dak look special. That alone kind of covered up the real mediocrity of Dak's play IMO. I think Dak would look a lot like Mike Glennon if he was trying to pilot the Giants team last year...and even this year

Who knows. Hard for me to allow myself to think anything positive from the Cowboys. The childish side of me I guess

[MightyGiants]

I've always thought Dak was overrated and was shocked when he got a contract he did as if he was the second coming of Tom Brady. I think Dallas felt as if they had been stuck with second rate QBs for so long that Dak was really special. The team has (had) a world-class O-line, great receivers, and Zeke to help Dak look special. That alone kind of covered up the real mediocrity of Dak's play IMO. I think Dak would look a lot like Mike Glennon if he was trying to pilot the Giants team last year...and even this year

Who knows. Hard for me to allow myself to think anything positive from the Cowboys. The childish side of me I guess

The problem for the Cowboys was they franchised Dak and then their record left them in a position where it wasn't realistic to draft a QB so they were sort of forced to sign Dak at an inflated price or let him walk and have a talented team that would be hampered by a lack of a QB.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

The problem for the Cowboys was they franchised Dak and then their record left them in a position where it wasn't realistic to draft a QB so they were sort of forced to sign Dak at an inflated price or let him walk and have a talented team that would be hampered by a lack of a QB.

Well...they shot themselves in the foot IMO. Dak isn't a 50 million dollar a year QB in this league. At some point, they are going to be in cap hell. And if Dak gets another major injury, they could be in QB hell

[Rambo89]

No, not with the cap hit he comes with.

[AZGiantFan]

Not with his penchant for coming up small in big games.  He's fine for beating up the Bucs of the league but put him against a very good defense in a big game and he wilts faster than lettuce.

[babywhales]

Dak is going to be taking a roughly $50 mil cap hit the next two seasons for the Boys.  

[kartanoman]

In the end, it's the Cowboys' problem. As for the Giants, they'd better start figuring out how to beat the $50 million wonder because, until they do he represents one of two major roadblocks for the Giants.

He and his team were shut down by the best defense in professional football. But he made it look interesting in the first half. Interesting, until Pollard went down. In the second half, you watched how the 49ers clamped down on the receivers and Bosa was wreaking pure havoc. You have to understand that, unless you watch the 49ers, week in and week out, they let opponents play in the first half, then clamp down in the second. Prescott was the latest casualty and Hurts will be the next one. The 49ers' defense made those turnovers happen with intense pressure and bottling up the Cowboys' WRs. But losing their dynamic weapon in Pollard hurt much more than anything else, in my opinion.

As long as the Cowboys continue to replenish their O-line, they have the receivers, TE and dynamic RB which give Prescott all the tools he needs. Rough that line up a bit, lose one of the coggs, and he looks like any other QB facing the 49ers.

The Cowboys are NOT contenders, nor have they been for a long time. They are a good football team which enjoys beating on the Giants for two soft wins. Instead of worrying about them, I'm hoping Schoen and Daboll, now that they know what they are up against in the NFC East, are worrying how to close that gap.

Peace!

[kingm56]

@MightyGiants

Rich, I believe any team who signs a non-HoF trajectory QB to $37M+/yr contract is unlikely to win a SB.  This includes, but not limited to Cousins, Prescot, Tannehill, Goff, Carr, Ryan, Wentz, etc...

In fact, I just typed this in another thread, which I believe is relevant to your question:

The modern NFL is ALL about QB play.  Consider the remaining playoff teams, 3 of 4 are helmed by Top 5 QBs.  Concerning SF, it's too early to make any predications regarding Purdy.  Regardless, building a roster similar to SF would be impossible with a veteran QB making $35M/yr.  SF has multiple APs because they're only paying Gapopplo $7M and Lance $8M ($15M combined)/yr.  This paradigm afforded them the opportunity to acquire Christian Mac and pair with D Samuel for two dynamic offensive players.  Its important to recognize how difficult it is to win SBs without a HoF or fringe HoF QB:

Cinci - Top 3 QB, 2nd straight AFC Championship
KC  - NFLs best QB, 5th straight AFC Championship Game

Phili - Top 5 QB
SF - I don't know what Purdy is; still, they have a LOADED rosters because they're not saddled with $37M+/yr QB contract....

You an keep going back and find a similar pattern...

2021
Cinci - Top 3 QB, Made it to SB
KC  - NFLs best QB, 4th straight AFC Championship Game

Rams - Fringe HoF QB, will make it with one more SB and/or 3 seasons at last years pace
SF - See above

2020
TB - GOAT
GB - Top 3 QB

KC - NFLs best QB, made it to the SB
Buff - Top 5 QB

Unfortunately, run first, good def teams no longer appear to be truly competitive to win SBs. Worse, teams who award large contracts to QBs not close or on a HoF trajectory (e.g. Cousins, Prescot, Tannehil, Goff, Carr, Ryan, Wentz, etc...) appear be incur a significant statistical disadvantage to winning SBs...

[AYM]

I've always thought Dak was overrated and was shocked when he got a contract he did as if he was the second coming of Tom Brady. I think Dallas felt as if they had been stuck with second rate QBs for so long that Dak was really special. The team has (had) a world-class O-line, great receivers, and Zeke to help Dak look special. That alone kind of covered up the real mediocrity of Dak's play IMO. I think Dak would look a lot like Mike Glennon if he was trying to pilot the Giants team last year...and even this year

Who knows. Hard for me to allow myself to think anything positive from the Cowboys. The childish side of me I guess

The QB before Prescott was Tony Romo. He was pretty good.

To answer the OP's question - they've proven they are clearly contenders with Prescott, but it seems that's all they'll be.

Better to have a rookie or journeyman than an okay QB eating up a huge part of the salary cap. The 49ers are a huge example of that right now with Brock Purdy.

Part of the problem in Dallas though is probably McCarthy. I think a better coach gets them at least to the NFC Championship in the last couple of years.

[uconnjack8]

Its a conundrum a lot of teams face at some point. 

Do you say goodbye to a QB like Dak instead of giving him the same money as elite QBs? 

Washington did that with Cousins, how has that worked out?

Not sure what the answer is. When you have these 2nd or 3rd tier QBs they need more around them to win a championship.  Paying them the same as tier 1 guys makes it impossible to put enough around them.  Getting rid of them for a different QB is risky for obvious reasons. 

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Don't know what it is about the Cowboys, but they usually have a good season and then fold like a cheap suit if they get to the playoffs. I was actually surprised they won their first playoff game this year. In the last 27 years, they have not won a Super Bowl and have only managed to win a total of 5 playoff games. That's pretty ugly for a team that coined themselves "America's Team".

In that same 27 yr span in which Cowboy fans were watching the Super Bowl from the comfort of their couch, the Giants have played in nine playoff games and three Super Bowls (won two of them). I was a young man the last time the Cowboys got to the big show. Now I'm an old man.

[MightyGiants]

@kingm56

Recent Super Bowl winners are a pretty small sample size.  I think it's fair to say it's a lot tougher for a team to win a Super Bowl if they don't have a top 10 QB.  It's obviously harder to win a Super Bowl when the QB is taking up a big chunk of the salary cap.   

Seems to me teams that were good and hit early on a QB have an advantage.   Often teams getting to the championship games have QBs on their rookie deals or veterans where the full weight of their contracts hasn't taken effect. 

That said, when it comes to the salary cap, it is still a team game.  If a team can hit on a couple of players at expensive positions while they are on their rookie deals, they can offset the cost of a veteran.   QB, which is around $50 million for the top ones.  Hit on a rookie WR, for example, and you are saving the $30 million.  If you can hit on an OT or CB and you can save enough cap to afford the expensive QB. 

Now obviously, it's hard to hit on a few players, which makes this path harder.

From my vantage point, the key to success is having a good HC (and staff), and a franchise QB, and then hitting one draft out of the park or be successful with multiple drafts.  I believe the Rams' approach is an aberration and that, in the end, it's about sustaining draft success that allows a team to afford the talent they need to compete.