Dcoumenting the various draftniks' accuracy

[DaveBrown74]

With all the mock drafts that we come across, particularly during the silly season, I have been curious about who actually does the best with their predictions, particularly over a meaningful number of years. Well, WalterFootball has just recently published this, starting with 2023 and going back through 2017. Since he was willing to take the time to do this, it should come as no surprise that he and his partner Charlie Campbell have done extremely well. Walter credits Charlie's excellent reporting as the reason for the strong performance. That these two have been near the top in just about every recent year seems like more than just dumb luck to me.

Another observation is that Mel Kiper, despite all the reverence he gets in this cottage industry, seems to have lost a lot of zip off his fastball in recent times. This may be because many of the contacts he had and relied upon to achieve the edge he had in the 80s and 90s have either retired or passed, but whatever the reason, the idea that he is the foremost authority in the media on how a given draft is going to play out seems to be a thing of the past.


See below:

https://walterfootball.com/mockdraftresults2023.php

[dasher]

The Huddle Report documents draftnik accuracy and a good resource.

[todge]

Even Mel Kiper will tell you that good accuracy in Mock Drafts is impossible to achieve. No one knows what teams are going to do. A better statistic is the accuracy of 1st Round predictions which Kiper (and many others) achieve a 90+% accuracy rate.

In huge demand, Mock Drafts are for entertainment value only.


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[DaveBrown74]

Even Mel Kiper will tell you that good accuracy in Mock Drafts is impossible to achieve. No one knows what teams are going to do. A better statistic is the accuracy of 1st Round predictions which Kiper (and many others) achieve a 90+% accuracy rate.

In huge demand, Mock Drafts are for entertainment value only.


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Obviously nobody can be right about everything, but some still do better than others.

[MightyGiants]

The Huddle Report documents draftnik accuracy and a good resource.

https://www.thehuddlereport.com/mock.scores.shtml

[Painter]

Lets c.o.t.s' there are no good resources no matter how you try to make believe there are.

It's already well-known and documented that rarely more than a 3rd of players are matched to the team which actually drafts them and, even then it occurs mostly within the top-10 picks. Thereafter, the remaining average is too low to matter and thus is essentially a moot point. The Silly Season is over, the Draft is over, and that ought be enough until we're jerked around again next year.

Cheers!

[GloryDays]

I think it really is not important if they predict which player is picked by which team... how good is their value board is more telling of their ability to evaluate talent.

[DaveBrown74]

I think it really is not important if they predict which player is picked by which team... how good is their value board is more telling of their ability to evaluate talent.

Yeah but that's not what these guys are doing when they publish mock drafts. Their mock drafts take team need into account and take rumors they're hearing from various sources into account as well. Many of these guys do mock drafts and also have their own "big boards." Two different things.