How Soon Can NFL Teams Tell if Draft Pick Was Worth It?

[MightyGiants]

Some interesting insights from Joe Baner

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/analysis/how-soon-can-nfl-teams-tell-if-draft-pick-was-worth-it/

[Painter]

"I guess that's a long way of saying: Don't pay attention to what NFL teams tell you today about their draft picks. Because they really don't know. And neither do we."

Yeah! It also was a long way of saying something which wasn't worth the time it took to read it.

Cheers!

[Philosophers]

Non-QB great players make impact almost immediately (i.e. within first half of first season). Average to above average players by end of second season.

Not focused on outliers.

[beaugestus]

AGH, the intangibles. I blame the scouts for this. The work ethic, football intelligence, the love of the game, etc.. Did the scouts get lazy with the prospect?

[MightyGiants]

AGH, the intangibles. I blame the scouts for this. The work ethic, football intelligence, the love of the game, etc.. Did the scouts get lazy with the prospect?

Sometimes it could be laziness or incompetence.  Other times it's likely due to people lying to the scouts.  When people are giving references there is always that ethical dilemma of wanting to help out the person being referenced versus being honest and helping the person asking for the reference

[MightyGiants]

One other thing of note was this-  I liked how they differentiated between a QB's performance and a QB's contribution to winning (They are not exactly the same)

Closing
Perhaps the best way to think of EPA is as a means of attribution. It's a high level accounting tool that can provide deep insight with significant sample size, but that can also struggle when asked to do things like value individual players outside of the QB position.

EPA can tell us that teams should be passing more, especially in certain situations, but it can't tell us whether a coach's decision to pass or run was good based on the defense they faced on that particular play.

In the end, EPA is just one of the many new advanced metrics that are helping us improve our understanding of the game of football. It's been used to create better NFL game stats, evaluate teams, assess home field advantage, and even form better projections for fantasy football and player props. While EPA does have its limitations, there's no question its introduction has been a net positive for fans and the game of football alike.

https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/