Good to get a win but

[DaveBrown74]

I think it's more than a handful of times the 1st QB taken was not the best. 

No big deal obviously, but that was not what I said at all. I'm well aware that plenty of QBs bust, including ones taken first overall or in the top 10.

My point was more that the ratio of great QBs drafted in the range where Brady or Russell Wilson were drafted versus ones drafted in the top 10 is tiny, and yet people like to emphasize the former and downplay the latter despite the overwhelming disparity in frequency, as if drafting a QB in the top 10 versus much later in the draft isn't a massive advantage, when it clearly is.

[DaveBrown74]

What? How? and Why? The Patriots are one of the worst teams in the entire NFL.

This line surprised me too. This line is saying the Giants would be 9 point dogs in NE. We were just 8.5 point dogs in Washington, and we won the game, and Washington is better than NE.

I think the reason the Pats are favored is because Belichick has a long history of owning opposing rookie QBs. I'm pretty sure that's the angle here.

[uconnjack8]

No big deal obviously, but that was not what I said at all. I'm well aware that plenty of QBs bust, including ones taken first overall or in the top 10.

My point was more that the ratio of great QBs drafted in the range where Brady or Russell Wilson were drafted versus ones drafted in the top 10 is tiny, and yet people like to emphasize the former and downplay the latter despite the overwhelming disparity in frequency, as if drafting a QB in the top 10 versus much later in the draft isn't a massive advantage, when it clearly is.

I would agree with that.  I thought you were saying that drafting the 1st QB in a draft has shown to be hugely favoring getting the correct one.  Like I said, when there is a clear #1 I agree. Years like this are different, but I think the best QB in the draft will be drafted in the top 10, more likely the top 5 as I could se3 3 going that high.

[Doc16LT56]

I wasn't referencing any of this stuff as to why teams may draft someone else higher.  The noise of the pre-draft stuff is nonsense.  The conversations that are had with GMs and HCs and owners is more of what I was mentioning.  Williams may do great in that regard and show another reason why he should be the #1 pick.  I don't know him or any of the other prospects and either do any of the people in this forum.  When telling the story of drafting Manning over Leaf, Bill Polian mentions that even the scouts only have about 80% of the information.  That's more of where my point lies.  There is a lot of unknowns about all these prospects when it comes to their mental makeup.

It's great that Eisen has strong feelings about Williams, and he may be right, but I don't think a chasm exists between he and some other prospects in this draft like there was from Trevor Lawrence to Zach Wilson.

The chasm between Caleb and everyone else will be clear by draft day. Any GM who passes on him will be taking a career and reputation threatening risk. It won't be like passing on Allen or Mahomes.

[Doc16LT56]

This isn't going to be a serious debate by draft day and that's taking nothing away from Maye. I'm willing to bet the one scout in this group wasn't being honest about his true thoughts.

https://twitter.com/WBG84/status/1724802727312798043?t=twVj58X5RrBO_MQFRgSzLg&s=19

[Gmo11]

This isn't going to be a serious debate by draft day and that's taking nothing away from Maye. I'm willing to bet the one scout in this group wasn't being honest about his true thoughts.

https://twitter.com/WBG84/status/1724802727312798043?t=twVj58X5RrBO_MQFRgSzLg&s=19

Or he went to UCLA.  There is no question that Caleb Williams is going to be the 1st pick.  The only question is to which team.  Maybe he turns out to stink.  Anything is possible.  You can go all in with pocket aces and still lose at poker.  What you don't do is fold pocket aces before the flop.  This kid is pocket aces.

Which again is not to say anything bad about Drake Maye or Penix or Bo Nix or Jaden Daniels or anybody else.  Caleb is just a better prospect than all of them.  Just like all of them are a better prospect than Daniel Jones was before he was taken. So if the Giants do end up picking a QB in the top 5 they may well get a significant improvement over what they've been dealing with the past 5 years. The problem is they had a great chance to get an absolute stud of a prospect, in fact going into last week they had the best odds to do so, and now it seems like that proposition is all but lost.

[DaveBrown74]

Anything is possible.  You can go all in with pocket aces and still lose at poker.  What you don't do is fold pocket aces before the flop.  This kid is pocket aces.

Great analogy. Couldn't agree more (with all of it).

[TDToomer]

TD: DeVito.

And they have Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. Mac is the 2nd worst QB in the NFL who has started every game after Pickett. Devito has a 88.9 PR compared to Mac's 80.1. 

[Dgoodmantrublu]

Winning a late game cost them Trevor Lawrence. They'd be a Super Bowl contender of they had Lawrence. In 1980, they won an extra game. They ended up with Freeman McNeil instead of Lawrence Taylor.

They chose to settle for Zach Wilson. That's their mistake and has absolutely nothing to do with winning late games or their draft position. 

[T200]

Winning a late game cost them Trevor Lawrence. They'd be a Super Bowl contender of they had Lawrence. In 1980, they won an extra game. They ended up with Freeman McNeil instead of Lawrence Taylor.

Yes, it cost them Lawrence. But they didn't have to pick Wilson.

[Gmo11]

Yes, it cost them Lawrence. But they didn't have to pick Wilson.

The idea is that if they had the #1 pick it takes the decision making out of it.  That is a historically inept franchise, not unlike the Giants in recent years, if you can make the decision comically easy even a dope like Gettleman can't screw...well maybe he could....but most couldn't screw that up.  Once you make a bad GM make a big decision...you get Daniel Jones at #6.

[T200]

The idea is that if they had the #1 pick it takes the decision making out of it.  That is a historically inept franchise, not unlike the Giants in recent years, if you can make the decision comically easy even a dope like Gettleman can't screw...well maybe he could....but most couldn't screw that up.  Once you make a bad GM make a big decision...you get Daniel Jones at #6.

I understood. Not all first picks work out either. Sure, if you have the #1, you get the pick of the litter.

My point is that no matter where they pick, they have to do their homework and then live or die with that pick. Hoping a player works out is not the way to draft.

[Dgoodmantrublu]

And our point is that winning these meaningless games in a lost season can cost you the chance to draft a player that can transform your franchise.

I understood. Not all first picks work out either. Sure, if you have the #1, you get the pick of the litter.

My point is that no matter where they pick, they have to do their homework and then live or die with that pick. Hoping a player works out is not the way to draft.

[T200]

And our point is that winning these meaningless games in a lost season can cost you the chance to draft a player that can transform your franchise.

I understood. Not all first picks work out either. Sure, if you have the #1, you get the pick of the litter.

My point is that no matter where they pick, they have to do their homework and then live or die with that pick. Hoping a player works out is not the way to draft.

[nb587]

To me, this is almost a silly conversation to have about halfway through the season.  I get it at the end of a horrible season, winning the last or next to last game of a horrible season does make a difference.  But, given the young mediocre QBs of the Steelers or the Falcons, wouldn't it make sense for them to lose also so they could end up with their future star QB.  Lots of other teams also.  I'm curious how Belichick, one of greatest HCs ever, coaches against the Giants with a similar season and similar needs.  I'm guessing he goes all out to win.  Maybe not-ws'll see.