How franchise QBs were acquired

[MightyGiants]

I used the current NFL.com QB rankings to create the list and went 16 QBs deep (since no list is absolute).   In light of all the talk about QBs in the next draft, I thought it would be interesting to see how the best were acquired.

Jalen Hurts*   2020 / Round: 2 / Pick: 53
Patrick Mahomes*  2017 / Round: 1 / Pick: 10
Tua Tagovailoa 2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 5  (possible *)
Lamar Jackson*    2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 32
Josh Allen 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 7 (possible *)
Dak Prescot*  2016 / Round: 4 / Pick: 135
C.J. Stroud  2023 / Round: 1 / Pick: 2
Trevor Lawrence  2021 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Joe Burrow   2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Jared Goff  Thow in during the Stafford trade, originally 2016 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Justin Herbert  2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 6
Sam Howell 2022 / Round: 5 / Pick: 144
Geno Smith  Street FA signing originally 2013 / Round: 2 / Pick: 39 (signed into a *)
Baker Mayfield 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Derek Carr Street FA signing originally   2014 / Round: 2 / Pick: 36
Brock Purdy* 2022 / Round: 7 / Pick: 262

* Drafted into a QB-friendly environment

[DaveBrown74]

I am surprised any selection methodology would characterize Sam Howell as a "franchise quarterback."

19th in QB rating, 21st in QBR, and a PFF grade in the 60s, which is pretty bad for a starting QB.

I doubt he'll be in the role for very long (beyond this season I mean).


Same thing with Baker Mayfield. He is in his late 20s and is already a journeyman, borderline starter at best who has already been on three teams and has failed everywhere he has played.

[MightyGiants]

I am surprised any selection methodology would characterize Sam Howell as a "franchise quarterback."

19th in QB rating, 21st in QBR, and a PFF grade in the 60s, which is pretty bad for a starting QB.

I doubt he'll be in the role for very long (beyond this season I mean).


Same thing with Baker Mayfield. He is in his late 20s and is already a journeyman, borderline starter at best who has already been on three teams and has failed everywhere he has played.

Jeff,

I really wanted to get the data out there.  As I said, I used the most recent NFL.com QB rankings and went 16 deep.  I wanted this to be about how QBs were acquired rather than an issue of rankings or who is or isn't a franchise QB (I leave it up to the reader to pick and choose which QBs to consider).

[DaveBrown74]

Jeff,

I really wanted to get the data out there.  As I said, I used the most recent NFL.com QB rankings and went 16 deep.  I wanted this to be about how QBs were acquired rather than an issue of rankings or who is or isn't a franchise QB (I leave it up to the reader to pick and choose which QBs to consider).

Understood.

So 9 out of 16 were top 10 overall picks, with five of those nine being top two picks. Sounds about right to me. Clearly shows that, while by no means are you getting any sort of guarantee, you're still very much at an advantage if you're picking very high in the first round if you're looking for your next starting QB for the long term.

[Gmo11]

It was mentioned in another thread as well but a lot of these guys were acquired via trade.  I really hope the Giants wind up somewhere in the top 5.  A loss this week is basically a requirement for that to happen at this point.  If they do, and the Bears end up with 2 of the top 4 picks I imagine they would be willing to trade back.  So that might be the only path remaining for the Giants to get a QB in this draft. Trading up a couple spots by giving up one of their 2 second rounders among other stuff. 

But if they fall out of the top 5 I don't think the Bears would be interested in going that far back and I don't think the Giants would be willing to offer what it would take to move the Bears or anybody else off that position.

[DaveBrown74]

It was mentioned in another thread as well but a lot of these guys were acquired via trade.  I really hope the Giants wind up somewhere in the top 5.  A loss this week is basically a requirement for that to happen at this point.  If they do, and the Bears end up with 2 of the top 4 picks I imagine they would be willing to trade back.  So that might be the only path remaining for the Giants to get a QB in this draft. Trading up a couple spots by giving up one of their 2 second rounders among other stuff. 

But if they fall out of the top 5 I don't think the Bears would be interested in going that far back and I don't think the Giants would be willing to offer what it would take to move the Bears or anybody else off that position.

What some of these other teams ultimately want to do at QB is in play too. Are we 100% positive, for example, that the Cards want to move on from Murray? I know that's everyone's view, but he has been pretty solid so far since his return plus his contract will be hard to move. Plus they may win some more games as well, so it may be moot.

The big one is do the Bears, definitely, 100% want to move on from Fields? He's still only 24, his passing numbers keep improving each year, and he's capable of rushing for over 1k yards on the ground. I'm certainly not saying he's for sure better than Williams or Maye, but I don't know why it's an automatic lock that they'll definitely want to move on from him.

As far as teams that have a shot, the only team that I'm basically positive will want to draft a QB near the top of the draft, besides us, is the Pats. Everyone else seems like a maybe.

[Dgoodmantrublu]

Who are the top guys.

Burrow. Top pick.
Mahomes. 10th pick.
Josh Allen. 7th pick
Hurts. 2nd round
Stroud. 2nd pick
Tua. 5th pick
Herbert 6th pick
Lamar. Trade up to back of first round.
Lawrence. Top Pick.

If you have anyone below this level, you aren't winning crap without a perfect team around them. Hurts and Lamar are complete outliers. I don't think you are getting this quality of player outside of right around the top 5. Teams are more desperate now because more teams need QBs than at any time in recent memory.

[Bob In PA]

Rich: Many thanks for doing this.  It must have taken a while.  Bob

[B1GBLUE]

I used the current NFL.com QB rankings to create the list and went 16 QBs deep (since no list is absolute).  In light of all the talk about QBs in the next draft, I thought it would be interesting to see how the best were acquired.

Jalen Hurts*  2020 / Round: 2 / Pick: 53
Patrick Mahomes*  2017 / Round: 1 / Pick: 10
Tua Tagovailoa 2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 5  (possible *)
Lamar Jackson*    2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 32
Josh Allen 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 7 (possible *)
Dak Prescot*  2016 / Round: 4 / Pick: 135
C.J. Stroud  2023 / Round: 1 / Pick: 2
Trevor Lawrence  2021 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Joe Burrow  2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Jared Goff  Thow in during the Stafford trade, originally 2016 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Justin Herbert  2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 6
Sam Howell 2022 / Round: 5 / Pick: 144
Geno Smith  Street FA signing originally 2013 / Round: 2 / Pick: 39 (signed into a *)
Baker Mayfield 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Derek Carr Street FA signing originally    2014 / Round: 2 / Pick: 36
Brock Purdy* 2022 / Round: 7 / Pick: 262

* Drafted into a QB-friendly environment

so we dont need the 1st overall pick?

[Dgoodmantrublu]

Most of the guys on the big list are just not good enough. If you want to truly contend, you need a top guy.

[MightyGiants]

Rich: Many thanks for doing this.  It must have taken a while.  Bob

Bob,

To be perfectly candid, I didn't mind.  I have an intense intellectual curiosity.  So, it was as much for me as for everyone else.

[Bob In PA]

Who are the top guys.

Burrow. Top pick.
Mahomes. 10th pick.
Josh Allen. 7th pick
Hurts. 2nd round
Stroud. 2nd pick
Tua. 5th pick
Herbert 6th pick
Lamar. Trade up to back of first round.
Lawrence. Top Pick.

If you have anyone below this level, you aren't winning crap without a perfect team around them. Hurts and Lamar are complete outliers. I don't think you are getting this quality of player outside of right around the top 5. Teams are more desperate now because more teams need QBs than at any time in recent memory.

Dgood: Good post. You imply each of them did/does NOT need a good team in order to win; I disagree with a few.

My favorite disagreement is Hurts, who IMO would be no better than Jones on the Giants.

Now that I got my little "dig" at the Eagles in, IMO only two or three others (one of which is Mahomes, actually "lifts" his squad significantly. KC was already a good team, needing just a QB to really break out, when they drafted him. They were already winning pretty decently (QB Smith) without Mahomes. The jury is IMO still out on Stroud,

That's also true of several others. IMO you're giving a lot more credit to several guys than they deserve.

The other implication of your post is that they are all better than Jones, and I disagree with that too. I think the jury is still out on Tua, Lawrence and certainly Stroud. Two others, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, can also personally lose you a couple of games each year (although so could Brett Favre... and he was still considered a big-time HOF QB). Just trying to be fair in my assessments.

Bob

PS. If either of my assumptions about your implications were wrong, I apologize in advance.

[Dgoodmantrublu]

Stroud turned a 3 win team into a playoff contender in his first season. He is in the MVP consideration. Hurts is so much better than Jones it isn't even funny. He started playing when the Eagles were mediocre and has grown into a top tier player. Jones hasn't thrown for more than 2 TDs in any game since 2019. They aren't comparable at all.

If you don't have a top tier QB talent you don't have a chance to consistently contend. I stand by that. And no amount of rationalizing why Daniel Jones sucks and assigning blame to others will change that.

[SlotCorner]

so we dont need the 1st overall pick?

It would be interesting to see what number QB they were. Josh Allen was the 7th pick, but the third QB taken that year. Its safe to say this is something else the Jets screwed up, but I digress.

If we don't have the number one, the ability to take a QB is dependent on who picks in front of us. I doubt Chicago moves on from Fields. Best guess is they take Marvin Harrison and trade down. Arizona is more likely to move on from Murray, and NE should definitely be picking a QB. That leaves us (I think) in third.

[Gmo11]

It would be interesting to see what number QB they were. Josh Allen was the 7th pick, but the third QB taken that year. Its safe to say this is something else the Jets screwed up, but I digress.

If we don't have the number one, the ability to take a QB is dependent on who picks in front of us. I doubt Chicago moves on from Fields. Best guess is they take Marvin Harrison and trade down. Arizona is more likely to move on from Murray, and NE should definitely be picking a QB. That leaves us (I think) in third.

If the Bears end up with the top pick via the Panthers, they will almost certainly take Caleb Williams.  Justin Fields is fine but he's almost ready for a new contract.  Have you seen enough from him to make him a $200 million guy?  He seems fine, and has talent, and they could probably trade him for something, but I personally haven't seen enough to give him that yet. 

Even if you love Fields, Williams is an equivalent talent right now and will come so much cheaper that the decision should be easy to make.  They could take Williams and Harrison together or even potentially trade the 2nd first round pick to a QB needy team and collect a ton of pieces to build around Williams.  Either way, they gotta take Williams if they get that pick unless Fields puts out Mahomes type numbers consistently the last couple months.