Dan Duggan on why the backups have looked better than Daniel Jones

[DaveBrown74]

This is The Athletic's Dan Duggan's response to a reader question on this topic:

FWIW I think his explanation is as fair as any, mainly because he has solid facts and data to support what he is saying.


How come with the same offensive line and the same receivers, Taylor and DeVito can throw downfield, but Jones can't (or doesn't)? — Jeff B.

Let's start with some qualifiers since there surely will be objections to the "same offensive line and the same receivers" aspect of your question. Jones didn't have left tackle Andrew Thomas for most of his six starts, and running back Saquon Barkley was missing for three games. But Taylor also didn't have Thomas, while DeVito hasn't had tight end Darren Waller. Jones had the worst protection of the trio, but the offensive line is still not a good unit despite some recent improvement. The bottom line is it's not a great sign if a bunch of qualifiers are necessary to compare the performance of a $160 million quarterback to a journeyman backup and an undrafted rookie.

Now, to the crux of your question, it's an alarming point. Just 8.1 percent of Jones' passes this season traveled 20-plus yards in the air. That would be tied with Panthers rookie Bryce Young for the lowest rate in the league if Jones had enough attempts to qualify. By comparison, DeVito is at 10.5 percent, and Taylor is at 12.6 percent.

DeVito (12) and Taylor (10) have more completions of 20-plus yards than Jones (9), despite Jones having 55 more attempts than DeVito and 73 more attempts than Taylor. And this isn't an aberration. Jones ranked 32rd out of 33 qualifying passers last season with a 5.9 percent rate of 20-plus air-yard passes and tied for 30th of 30 qualifying passers in 2021 with a 7.5 percent rate. From 2020-23, his 7.5 percent rate of attempts 20-plus yards in the air ranks last among 44 qualifying quarterbacks. He was at 11.8 percent as a rookie in 2019.

Jones has become gun-shy, and that's a problem. Daboll wants a quarterback who lets it rip. He highlighted the "high-level" hole shot against Cover-2 DeVito threw to wide receiver Jalin Hyatt against the Patriots in Week 12. Those throws are there every game, and the backups have been willing to take those shots. For some reason, Jones hasn't pulled the trigger as often.

[Gmo11]

Seems to be in line with most of us around here have seen too.  The backups are playing better, though not spectacularly better, simply because they are willing to throw downfield and Jones is not.  Hyatt is going to be a star next season provided they get this kid a QB who will look his direction.  At least Devito is willing to just toss one up there and say "screw it Hyatt is down there somewhere". Because that kid is good enough to come down with those more often than not.  They just have to give him the chance.

[T200]

Seems to be in line with most of us around here have seen too.  The backups are playing better, though not spectacularly better, simply because they are willing to throw downfield and Jones is not.  Hyatt is going to be a star next season provided they get this kid a QB who will look his direction.  At least Devito is willing to just toss one up there and say "screw it Hyatt is down there somewhere". Because that kid is good enough to come down with those more often than not.  They just have to give him the chance.

Great players make great plays. The QB MUST take deep shots to get the defense to back off the line. Hit on a couple and they rethink their plan to crowd the line. Now you have Saquon and play-action at your disposal and a diverse attack. Dink-and-dunk scares no one. It's almost like a prevent offense.

[Torus34]

Taking deep shots when the opponents are playing capable man for man equals interceptions.

Mr. Danial Jones, when healthy, probably has the physical abilities of, say, the Jersey Kid. Maybe even better. But he is proven thus far to be comparatively fragile. Look at how long it took the New Jersey Jets to lose a season betting on a good, but fragile, QB.; four, count 'em, 4 snaps.

There's something to be said for durability.

Go flag-free, Big Blue!

[jgrangers2]

It's pretty clear that he has forgone any semblance of risk for safer throws. The thing is he wasn't like this when he first came to the NFL, but he's clearly in his head about minimizing risk over anything else. You have to have at least some gunslinger in you to work in the NFL and it seems like he has just completely eliminated that from his game.

[spiderblue43]

I don't care about equivacators excuses..blah blah.about Jones anymore. The organization and him failed. OVER!!!!

DeVito has thrown better in 2 starts than Jones ever did. Tyrod too.

[kartanoman]

It all begs the question at the end of the season ... "Now what?" We've already heard the politically correct story out of Schoen and Daboll; however, we all know better in that there is a hidden caveat built into that answer. The QBs on the roster next season will look different than this season and the caveat will be revealed.

What that caveat is, take your best guess until then.

Peace!

[Ed Vette]

Apparently, Daboll and Schoen have no issues with DJ because he's named their starter next season and it's TBD if they even draft a QB. When Eli comes out with a statement, I suspect that he was asked to support a decision that has already been made. It's ok to discuss this on a forum but I don't know what purpose it serves for a Beat to put it out unless it's to send a message to DJ that he needs to up his game.

[Brooklyn Dave]

I don't care about equivacators excuses..blah blah.about Jones anymore. The organization and him failed. OVER!!!!

DeVito has thrown better in 2 starts than Jones ever did. Tyrod too.

Before you bury him , just think back to Geno Smith and his travails .

[Uni]

I think we had all noticed a while ago that Jones' indecisiveness and willingness to throw the ball was the biggest problem

[Bob In PA]

I think we had all noticed a while ago that Jones' indecisiveness and willingness to throw the ball was the biggest problem

Uni: I agree. The question is why?  What is he seeing or not seeing? What are they asking him to do, nor not do, and how is he interpreting those instructions?

Duggan mostly puts aside whether all three QB's had the "same" OL and "same" receivers.  But note the final paragraph, where Duggan IMO makes an assumption...

"Jones has become gun-shy, and that's a problem. Daboll wants a quarterback who lets it rip. He highlighted the "high-level" hole shot against Cover-2 DeVito threw to wide receiver Jalin Hyatt against the Patriots in Week 12. Those throws are there every game, and the backups have been willing to take those shots. For some reason, Jones hasn't pulled the trigger as often."

Daboll never said that, but Duggan bases his conclusion on that assumption. His conclusion is IMO just an opinion. The mere fact that Daboll "highlighted" a great pass by DeVito does NOT support a conclusion that "Jones has become gun-shy" or that Daboll wants a QB who let's it rip. The ONLY way we'll know if Daboll and company agree with Duggan's conclusion is by what they do when Jones comes back, or if they trade Jones in the off-season, etc.

Long story short: it's faulty logic to assume that the head coach's praise of a nice throw by one QB is an indictment of another QB.

Bob

[Uni]

He doesn't process fast enough and doesn't throw with anticipation. These windows to throw are fractions of a second. Oftentimes, they can only be anticipated because you really don't have enough time to actually see anyone open. Jones will only throw the ball if the receiver is wide open, a kind of open that is uncommon in the the NFL and the window for these opportunities closes real quick. Hesitate and you're lost. Jones is always hesitating.

[Bob In PA]

He doesn't process fast enough and doesn't throw with anticipation. These windows to throw are fractions of a second. Oftentimes, they can only be anticipated because you really don't have enough time to actually see anyone open. Jones will only throw the ball if the receiver is wide open, a kind of open that is uncommon in the the NFL and the window for these opportunities closes real quick. Hesitate and you're lost. Jones is always hesitating.

Uni: So true about the apparent lack of anticipation. THAT is not the definition of gun-shy. It shows lack of confidence in what he sees, IMO.

Maybe I'm being "picky" but regarding for the bold print, although hesitation can be a symptom of "gun-shy-ness" but it can also be an indication of lack of confidence.

So for me, at least, the jury is out concerning the hesitation aspect, but I have no doubt about lack of anticipation because I see it done CORRECTLY by many other NFL QB's each week. That includes DeVito. And it is more crucial to DeVito's success vis-a-vis Jones, IMO, because DeVito's arm is not as strong as Jones arm. The stronger your arm, the more you can hesitate.

Bob

[andrew_nyGiants]

Apparently, Daboll and Schoen have no issues with DJ because he's named their starter next season and it's TBD if they even draft a QB. When Eli comes out with a statement, I suspect that he was asked to support a decision that has already been made. It's ok to discuss this on a forum but I don't know what purpose it serves for a Beat to put it out unless it's to send a message to DJ that he needs to up his game.

Ed....remember we're not listening to the likes of Reese or Gettlemen neither of whom had a poker face. By March every offseason nearly everyone knew who are pick would be in April.

I am not convinced that they are sticking with DJ despite their consistent "conviction".

Honestly, that's the way I want my FO to behave...surprise me in April like it's Christmas morning...with a shiny new Quarterback or another stud for the Edge.


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[GeauxJints]

I get the feeling that Jones knows he somehow fleeced the giants for 40 mil, and now he's too scared to expose himself for what he is, so he won't take the shots downfield because he constantly misses those and knows it makes him look real bad