Playing the odds at the QB position

[Brooklyn Dave]

Jess,

CJ had a much better support system than you think.  Look at this PFF lineup.

Who is the great QB you want to draft ? Are you saying trade up ? If so forget about having any second round picks because they would be gone in any trade up scenario

[MightyGiants]

Maybe an elite WR won't be there in the second round , but he could be . Fixing the OL has to be the  priority and that is why if Joe Alt is there at 6 you take him.. I know, I know, that he was a LT at Notre Dame and Neal so far has not worked out , but Alt came to Notre Dame as a blocking tight end and developed to All American status. With a very good OL and with the receivers we have plus anyone we add in FA or in the second round , Daniel Jones can be a good to very good QB. There are not many QBs in the league who can run like Jones can and give him OL protection and a running game , let's see the results .

I am a strong believer in a good offensive line.  That said, once a team has their LT, I am leary of spending more high-round picks on the line.  The difference in the contribution between an NFL-adequate O-linemen and an elite one is minimal compared to the difference in contribution between an NFL-adequate WR and an elite one.

[MightyGiants]

Who is the great QB you want to draft ? Are you saying trade up ? If so forget about having any second round picks because they would be gone in any trade up scenario

I am not an advocate of trading up.  The Giants lack talent all over their roster.  The last thing they need to do is reduce that talent level moving forward by spending all the draft capital on a QB.

[Jclayton92]

How did you determine what percentage of the improved play was natural player improvement versus the new coaching staff versus the new rookie QB?

Nico collins had 400 yards his first 2 years and then a 1000 with stroud, Noah Brown beat his career high of 555 with Dallas by 12 yards this past year in Houston. Dell had 700 as a rookie before Injury. We have better skill players than the Texans, the only difference being the Qb position.

[Jclayton92]

Jones has never been a great Qb his first 5 years but he will be in year 6? Is that not the definition of madness, every offseason its the same exact thing with the fan base, just a ton of ifs and buts surrounding him, when no other qb needs 87 excuses to produce.

[MightyGiants]

There's a clip going around twitter of Beane (Schoen's former boss) discussing trading so much to get Josh Allen and his reasoning boiled down to "Either he works out and nobody gives a sh*t how much it cost to get him, or he doesn't work out and I won't be around here anyway". Which is refreshingly honest. 

That's relevant to this situation because Daboll/Schoen are in a similar situation now, though not exactly the same because every team at the top of this draft needs a QB so they can't really trade up there to get one.  They could potentially take McCarthy at 6 though and similarly if he works out nobody will care that he was picked higher than most thought he should and if he fails they'll all be fired anyway. 

When you look at it through the prism of what's the most reasonable thing to do for the team I still don't think taking McCarthy at 6 is the right thing to do.  I don't feel strongly enough that he's going to turn into a real stud, although I do see some potential there.  (I have him ranked over Maye at this point). But when you look at it through the prism of a GM that's given a mixed bag of results after 2 years you can see why he might say screw it either we get our QB for the next decade and I've got job security forever or he sucks and I'm fired anyway so I don't have to sit around and try to fix it.

There is a real difference in he situations.  The Bills were talented enough a team to make the playoffs the season before they drafted Josh Allen.  The Giants were so lacking in talent they were out of the playoffs by Halloween.

[Ed Vette]

There's a clip going around twitter of Beane (Schoen's former boss) discussing trading so much to get Josh Allen and his reasoning boiled down to "Either he works out and nobody gives a sh*t how much it cost to get him, or he doesn't work out and I won't be around here anyway". Which is refreshingly honest. 

That's relevant to this situation because Daboll/Schoen are in a similar situation now, though not exactly the same because every team at the top of this draft needs a QB so they can't really trade up there to get one.  They could potentially take McCarthy at 6 though and similarly if he works out nobody will care that he was picked higher than most thought he should and if he fails they'll all be fired anyway. 

When you look at it through the prism of what's the most reasonable thing to do for the team I still don't think taking McCarthy at 6 is the right thing to do.  I don't feel strongly enough that he's going to turn into a real stud, although I do see some potential there.  (I have him ranked over Maye at this point). But when you look at it through the prism of a GM that's given a mixed bag of results after 2 years you can see why he might say screw it either we get our QB for the next decade and I've got job security forever or he sucks and I'm fired anyway so I don't have to sit around and try to fix it.

In the scenario that the top three QB's are gone at 6 and a team traded up to get the third QB ahead of the Giants, the success of that QB could reflect on Schoen. If they then don't pick McCarthy if he's there at 6 and Jones' 2024 performance forces Schoen not to retain Jones, that will reflect on Schoen.

Drafting a QB in the second round is a risk too. Especially if that QB can't start and play well in late '24 or in '25.

The safest thing for Schoen to do is pick one of the top four that falls to him at six. So I agree.

[MightyGiants]

Nico collins had 400 yards his first 2 years and then a 1000 with stroud, Noah Brown beat his career high of 555 with Dallas by 12 yards this past year in Houston. Dell had 700 as a rookie before Injury. We have better skill players than the Texans, the only difference being the Qb position.

What about the new coaches, scheme, and sizeable roster turnover?

[Jclayton92]

What about the new coaches, scheme, and sizeable roster turnover?

You and I both know that nothing has a bigger effect on a team than having the guy, vs having some dude. The Texans won last year because Stroud played out of his mind, yes scheme like played some role as did the new coaches but when you look at the Texans as a whole, Stroud was the catalyst for all of that.

[Ed Vette]

You and I both know that nothing has a bigger effect on a team than having the guy, vs having some dude. The Texans won last year because Stroud played out of his mind, yes scheme like played some role as did the new coaches but when you look at the Texans as a whole, Stroud was the catalyst for all of that.

Over 4200 all purpose yards, 26 TD's and only 5 interceptions. 15 games for a Rookie QB. That's a year most QBs never come close to after 5 years or a career.

[MightyGiants]

You and I both know that nothing has a bigger effect on a team than having the guy, vs having some dude. The Texans won last year because Stroud played out of his mind, yes scheme like played some role as did the new coaches but when you look at the Texans as a whole, Stroud was the catalyst for all of that.

Jess,

That's where we differ.  I have seen many a QB drafted who had the ability to be "the guy" only to see their careers crash and burn because the team that drafted him failed to support him (with protection and receivers and general talent levels, along with good coaching) and develop him (again good coaching and a good learning environment).  We are discussing CJ Stroud.  PFF stats show that NFL QBs faced pressure on 25% to 49% of their passing dropbacks.  Consider the two top QBs drafted.  Bryce Young faced pressure 40% of his dropbacks compared to 35.9% of his dropbacks.  CJ Stroud had 62.8 pass blocking grade and a 81.3 receiving grade.  Compare that to Bryce Young's 53.6 pass blocking grade and a 63.3 receiving grade.  Young's coach was also fired in a season, which speaks to the difference in coaching quality. Is it any wonder why Young's rookie season was disappointing but Stroud's was impressive?  I am not saying that CJ Stroud will not ultimately prove more successful, but when you look the support and development the 1st and 2nd picks received it shouldn't be surprising that Stroud had a good year and Young a poor season.

[Stringer Bell]

We have better skill players than the Texans, the only difference being the Qb position.

This is so wildly off-base. The only position we have the advantage is RB, and Saquon barely put up better numbers than Singletary, so the advantage there is minimal and will be gone if Saquon leaves.

Collins is better than any WR on our roster, as is Dell. Brown is far better than our #3. And Schultz is better than Waller.

Stroud is excellent, no doubt. But he benefited from a far more talented group of skill players, as well as a better OL.

[uconnjack8]

Jess,

That's where we differ.  I have seen many a QB drafted who had the ability to be "the guy" only to see their careers crash and burn because the team that drafted him failed to support him (with protection and receivers and general talent levels, along with good coaching) and develop him (again good coaching and a good learning environment).  We are discussing CJ Stroud.  PFF stats show that NFL QBs faced pressure on 25% to 49% of their passing dropbacks.  Consider the two top QBs drafted.  Bryce Young faced pressure 40% of his dropbacks compared to 35.9% of his dropbacks.  CJ Stroud had 62.8 pass blocking grade and a 81.3 receiving grade.  Compare that to Bryce Young's 53.6 pass blocking grade and a 63.3 receiving grade.  Young's coach was also fired in a season, which speaks to the difference in coaching quality. Is it any wonder why Young's rookie season was disappointing but Stroud's was impressive?  I am not saying that CJ Stroud will not ultimately prove more successful, but when you look the support and development the 1st and 2nd picks received it shouldn't be surprising that Stroud had a good year and Young a poor season.

Not surprising that Stroud had a good year?  Sorry, but given what we have seen other OSU QBs do, which is being unable to call plays in the huddle, the recent history of the Texans and the overwhelming evidence of rookie QBs struggling, I am shocked Stroud was that good.  Shocked. 

I don't know how they derive all those stats but I find it interesting that Stroud saw pressure on only 4% less dropbacks but the blocking grades were almost 10 points higher. 

[MightyGiants]

Not surprising that Stroud had a good year?  Sorry, but given what we have seen other OSU QBs do, which is being unable to call plays in the huddle, the recent history of the Texans and the overwhelming evidence of rookie QBs struggling, I am shocked Stroud was that good.  Shocked. 

I don't know how they derive all those stats but I find it interesting that Stroud saw pressure on only 4% less dropbacks but the blocking grades were almost 10 points higher.

I think you have to look at pressures owned (at least on part) by the QB.

Stroud- 16.0%
Young- 14.7%

[Jclayton92]

This is so wildly off-base. The only position we have the advantage is RB, and Saquon barely put up better numbers than Singletary, so the advantage there is minimal and will be gone if Saquon leaves.

Collins is better than any WR on our roster, as is Dell. Brown is far better than our #3. And Schultz is better than Waller.

Stroud is excellent, no doubt. But he benefited from a far more talented group of skill players, as well as a better OL.

Collins barely produced 400 yards a season his first couple if seasons in the NFL. If Slayton had a good quarterback he would put up similar numbers, Hyatt with a good qb would offset with brown, and tank dell is Wandale with a better qb. So yes the Texans have a better te because Waller busted, but that's it. Stroud elevated those guys, you don't think Stroud would do the same for Slayton, hodgins, Hyatt, and Robinson?? He would have.