Big Blue Huddle

General Category => Big Blue Huddle => Topic started by: andrew_nyGiants on November 08, 2023, 07:44:50 AM

Title: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: andrew_nyGiants on November 08, 2023, 07:44:50 AM
Marvin Harrison Jr is there, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are not... what should Schoen do?


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Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: AYM on November 08, 2023, 08:29:31 AM
Take Harrison. Figure out the other stuff later.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Doc16LT56 on November 08, 2023, 08:56:10 AM
Depends on how the big OTs grade out. Jonathan Ogden was drafted the same year as Harrison's dad. If you have a chance at a Jonathan Ogden you take him ahead of Harrison or Keyshawn or anyone else who isn't a QB and isn't named Lawrence Taylor. If the OTs aren't Ogden special, then you take Harrison.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: kingm56 on November 08, 2023, 08:56:24 AM
If it's anything other than a QB, it's a massive failure.  You simply can't figure out the QB later and be successful; this a QB rich draft...the time is now. 
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: SlotCorner on November 08, 2023, 09:30:16 AM
This assumes Schoen stays pat. If they are at 4 and think one of the three teams above them is picking the QB they like, they need to trade up. Besides the need, it is rare you are in within striking distance of the top pick in any case.

With Jones tearing his ACL and DeVito likely starting at least two more games, The Athletic has the Giants as most likely to get the top pick anyway.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: 4 Aces on November 08, 2023, 09:45:40 AM
If they have a conviction on a QB, they should package the #4 overall, a 2nd round pick, and next year's #1 to move up to #1 overall and get their guy. Just like they did with Eli.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: andrew_nyGiants on November 08, 2023, 09:53:01 AM
Is there a QB out there who isn't Maye or Williams, worthy of #4 overall?


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Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: MightyGiants on November 08, 2023, 10:18:38 AM
If you believe you are drafting a QB who is elite and will be a "win because of" type, then you go QB.  If you are choosing between an elite WR prospect and a QB you see as a "can win with," you have to take the WR.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: DaveBrown74 on November 08, 2023, 10:18:53 AM
If they're picking 4th overall, and they like Maye and Williams much more than any other QB, they should do everything their power to move up to the top 2. I'm not saying they'll be able to, but I'd be prepared to pay over the top to do it. You simply can't put a price on the value of getting a legitimate franchise QB who you strongly believe can be a top 7 or 8 QB in the league. It is of almost immeasurable value.

So assuming they tried to do that but couldn't do the trade, it would come down to who their third favorite QB is and how high they were on that individual. If they assess that Williams and Maye are both elite prospects and everyone else is just "decent" at best, and that nobody else is going even in the top 10, then you either take another position or trade down.

I think it is unlikely though that they won't be interested in any QB other than Williams or Maye. There are other good prospects in this class. I'm not advocating that they use the 4th pick in the draft on someone they think is going to be the next Ryan Tannehill, but I somewhat doubt they won't find themselves being fairly high on a third guy. If they're not, then they should either trade down substantially or take the best player at another premium position. But this should only happen if they have truly gone all-in on trying to trade up to get one of those top two. They should be fully prepared to win a bidding war to make that happen, if need be.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Gman329 on November 08, 2023, 10:28:43 AM
With the pride of Don Bosco at QB the rest of the way, and they will start to give some of the young guys more playing time, sitting semi-injured players like Thomas, rather than risk greater injury, we'll draft higher than 4th and there's even a decent shot we get the #1 spot. 
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: madbadger on November 08, 2023, 10:31:55 AM
Chicago will likely have two of the top four picks and will use one on a quarterback. The other team is likely to be the Cardinals who have already let it leak that they're sticking with Murray if for no other reason than because of his contract. So unless someone convinces one of those two to trade their pick one of the two should be available. Even then like with Eli we should be looking to trade up ourselves to ensure they get one of those guys.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: AZGiantFan on November 08, 2023, 10:41:44 AM
Quote from: kingm56 on November 08, 2023, 08:56:24 AMIf it's anything other than a QB, it's a massive failure.  You simply can't figure out the QB later and be successful; this a QB rich draft...the time is now.

Funny, I have the exact opposite position.  Taking a QB would be a massive failure, for me.  In this era a team has limited resources made up of 2 parts, CAP and draft capital.  20% of their CAP space for 2024 is irrevocably committed to the QB1.  A top 5 pick represents about half to 2/3rds of their draft capital.  Trading up for a QB would just make it worse.  Spending that on a QB would completely unbalance the team.  Plus it would get a promising young QB killed.  They need to build a quality roster, not look for a savior.  There will be plenty of time to get a QB, particularly if they trade down and get a 2025 first rounder as part of the deal.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: katkavage on November 08, 2023, 11:44:45 AM
Quote from: SlotCorner on November 08, 2023, 09:30:16 AMThis assumes Schoen stays pat. If they are at 4 and think one of the three teams above them is picking the QB they like, they need to trade up. Besides the need, it is rare you are in within striking distance of the top pick in any case.

With Jones tearing his ACL and DeVito likely starting at least two more games, The Athletic has the Giants as most likely to get the top pick anyway.
Get your man even it requires next year's first. See Ernie Accorsi and 2004.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: brownelvis54 on November 08, 2023, 11:58:25 AM
Three scenarios here:

1-Draft Harrison Jr and in the 2nd round get a QB (Bo Nix)

2-Draft J.J. McCarthy

3-Take a gamble and trade back (not too far) and HOPE J.J. McCarthy is there when we pick in the 1st round
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Doc16LT56 on November 08, 2023, 12:09:30 PM
Quote from: brownelvis54 on November 08, 2023, 11:58:25 AMThree scenarios here:

1-Draft Harrison Jr and in the 2nd round get a QB (Bo Nix)

2-Draft J.J. McCarthy

3-Take a gamble and trade back (not too far) and HOPE J.J. McCarthy is there when we pick in the 1st round

Yes, everyone wants one of the big-2 QBs but the original question in this thread asked us to assume that ship has sailed and we can't get one of those two QBs. So you've laid out the three most likely scenarios. I would add a fourth option would be to draft an elite OLT if he grades out that high.

My personal feeling is to avoid taking the 3rd best QB unless you are absolutely convinced that he has top-5 QB potential. I don't want another Daniel Jones situation where we sacrifice half a decade on a guy with some nice traits who isn't good enough to put it all together on the field.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 08, 2023, 12:19:11 PM
Way to early dream 1st 3 rounds

1 JJ Mccarthy QB Michigan
2 Andrew Mukuba S Clemson
2 Tre Harris WR Ole Miss
3 Audric Estime RB Notre Dame
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: brownelvis54 on November 08, 2023, 12:27:40 PM
Quote from: Doc16LT56 on November 08, 2023, 12:09:30 PMYes, everyone wants one of the big-2 QBs but the original question in this thread asked us to assume that ship has sailed and we can't get one of those two QBs. So you've laid out the three most likely scenarios. I would add a fourth option would be to draft an elite OLT if he grades out that high.

My personal feeling is to avoid taking the 3rd best QB unless you are absolutely convinced that he has top-5 QB potential. I don't want another Daniel Jones situation where we sacrifice half a decade on a guy with some nice traits who isn't good enough to put it all together on the field.



Agreed. Watch the Penn st vs Michigan, this Saturday. Two very good QBs. Watch McCarthy and the Penn St QB will most likely be the #1 pick in the 2025 draft.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: AYM on November 08, 2023, 12:40:58 PM
Quote from: kingm56 on November 08, 2023, 08:56:24 AMIf it's anything other than a QB, it's a massive failure.  You simply can't figure out the QB later and be successful; this a QB rich draft...the time is now.

You don't want to reach for a QB in that spot, either. There are plenty of players I'd rather have than Trey Lance, for example.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: files58 on November 08, 2023, 01:09:21 PM
The race is on for the bottom. Based on recent past performance one would think that both DeVito and Barkley(Matt) have a limited "shelf" life eventually leaving the QB role to one of us. I don't see the Giants winning another game which will include the carnage this coming Sunday in big D. So that leaves us at 2-15(ouch), and if the Bears, and Cardinals outlose us mazel tov to them on their accomplishment. So where does that leave Schoen & Daboll Inc.? First, notice how silent Mara is. We can hope that after he wipes himself with the paper that his compromise contract(2 yr out) to Jones is written on he tells Schoen & Daboll Inc. I'll hold up my end of the bargain and get out of your way, you have free reign. We can all now exhale. I am as an amateur scout now somewhat less enamored with the prohibitive favorite 1-2 QB picks. One would have to think that S&D will have a 3rd and 4th choice of QB that they feel can be developed. It's not what they've done in college(hype and all), but where Daboll thinks a prospect has the right tools he can help develop. Think Brock Purdy per se. If we land on #3 either trade out to no lower than 6 or 7 for a boatload of picks, or pluck Marvin Harrison Jr., and get your QB later. I love draft capital, and draft picks. They spell HOPE for me, and frankly that's all we have right now.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: DaveBrown74 on November 08, 2023, 01:24:33 PM
Quote from: Doc16LT56 on November 08, 2023, 12:09:30 PMYes, everyone wants one of the big-2 QBs but the original question in this thread asked us to assume that ship has sailed and we can't get one of those two QBs. So you've laid out the three most likely scenarios. I would add a fourth option would be to draft an elite OLT if he grades out that high.

My personal feeling is to avoid taking the 3rd best QB unless you are absolutely convinced that he has top-5 QB potential. I don't want another Daniel Jones situation where we sacrifice half a decade on a guy with some nice traits who isn't good enough to put it all together on the field.

Agreed.

Would you agree though that it's worth throwing the kitchen sink at a trade offer for Chicago (or whomever) for one of those top two picks, provided:

(1) The GM absolutely believes both of them have what it takes to be stars, and

(2) A trade is possible (albeit there may be one or more other suitor)
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Philosophers on November 08, 2023, 01:44:34 PM
With DeVito now starting, the #1 pick is a possibility.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: madbadger on November 08, 2023, 01:47:39 PM
Quote from: brownelvis54 on November 08, 2023, 11:58:25 AMThree scenarios here:

1-Draft Harrison Jr and in the 2nd round get a QB (Bo Nix)

2-Draft J.J. McCarthy

3-Take a gamble and trade back (not too far) and HOPE J.J. McCarthy is there when we pick in the 1st round

In a quarterback needy league I don't think Nix lasts till the second round. If McCarthy has a top 10 grade and the other two are gone they should take him. I don't like the idea of trading back if there's a hood quarterback left on the board. I'd rather see them slightly overpay than to play games and lose a guy that can get us headed to where we want to go.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on November 08, 2023, 02:05:08 PM
Quote from: Philosophers on November 08, 2023, 01:44:34 PMWith DeVito now starting, the #1 pick is a possibility.

Yes, in fact, The Athletic has rearranged their draft predictions and now have the Giants getting the 1st overall pick...mostly due to their assumptions on Devito and the easier schedule for the other bottom feeders

I was in Syracuse all morning and got into a conversation with another football fan (cowboy fan  :sick: ). He laughed that we took Devito. He said, he "wasn't good when he played for Syracuse, why do the Giants think he can be an NFL QB".....just one man's opinion, but as an SU fan, I can attest to the fact that Devito didn't exactly set the dome on fire. Don't want to knock the kid, but there's a reason he wasn't drafted
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Bob In PA on November 08, 2023, 02:10:52 PM
Take Harrison, Jr. He's a far better player than any of the remaining QB's.

In fact, he's also better than the two QB's already taken (repeating myself).

Also, you get your QB once you have a team that gives him a fair chance to succeed (also repeating myself).

Bob
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Gmo11 on November 08, 2023, 02:20:39 PM
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 08, 2023, 02:10:52 PMTake Harrison, Jr. He's a far better player than any of the remaining QB's.

In fact, he's also better than the two QB's already taken (repeating myself).

Also, you get your QB once you have a team that gives him a fair chance to succeed (also repeating myself).

Bob

That line of thinking makes sense when everything lines up perfectly but that rarely happens.  The Giants by virtue of stinking up the place this season have positioned themselves to be able to draft one of the top QBs coming out in a QB heavy draft.  It's quite literally the only good thing about this god forsaken season.  They can't pass up that chance because they are a year behind schedule.  Because we saw last year, even terrible teams can catch some breaks and win some games and all of a sudden a mostly lousy team is now in the playoffs without any hope of drafting a QB for the future.

If they only feel 2 QBs are worth tying their careers two, and both of them are gone, then I imagine they do go with Harrison and try to find somebody like Baker Mayfield who may not be special but could be good enough with the right pieces around him.  Not ideal but better than taking a QB that shouldn't be taken that high.  See Jones, Daniel for that precedent.

I expect them to easily fall into the top 3 and probably the top 2.  And if that's the case they will absolutely take a QB.  Even if they let that QB sit to start the season while Jones takes yet another beating.  From the minute Schoen got here 2024 was the target for when the tide would start to turn.  Unfortunately they won so many games last year some expectations got shifted, including by the front office, and they tried to adjust the plan by keeping Jones/Barkley.  In retrospect a mistake but not one that should cost them too much provided they come out of this next draft with a stud QB that can lead this team for the next decade. 
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Dgoodmantrublu on November 08, 2023, 02:38:27 PM
Having a WR with no QB is useless. They need to get a QB at all costs in this draft.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: JT39 on November 08, 2023, 02:52:42 PM
Run to the podium and take Harrison, trade back in the first round and take the QB.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: babywhales on November 08, 2023, 02:55:29 PM
The Giants need a QB and the Qb needs more than Thomas and the hope of developing our center.  There must get a competent and effective RT and another Guard.

Harrison will be a stud for sure but no one needs a WR when you do not have a QB and a line.

Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Doc16LT56 on November 08, 2023, 02:57:54 PM
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on November 08, 2023, 01:24:33 PMAgreed.

Would you agree though that it's worth throwing the kitchen sink at a trade offer for Chicago (or whomever) for one of those top two picks, provided:

(1) The GM absolutely believes both of them have what it takes to be stars, and

(2) A trade is possible (albeit there may be one or more other suitor)
100% you make the trade if your guy is there.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Stringer Bell on November 08, 2023, 03:02:51 PM
Quote from: SlotCorner on November 08, 2023, 09:30:16 AMThis assumes Schoen stays pat. If they are at 4 and think one of the three teams above them is picking the QB they like, they need to trade up.


If a team above us is taking the QB we like, that means they like him, as well. What makes you think they'd be willing to trade out and lose the guy they want?

I've always found it curious how easy fans make trading up seem.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Stringer Bell on November 08, 2023, 03:04:09 PM
Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on November 08, 2023, 09:53:01 AMIs there a QB out there who isn't Maye or Williams, worthy of #4 overall?


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Absolutely not. Which is ironic, because my guess is many of the fans clamoring that QB is a must draft position are also the ones who felt the Giants reached for DJ.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Stringer Bell on November 08, 2023, 03:05:51 PM
Quote from: AZGiantFan on November 08, 2023, 10:41:44 AMFunny, I have the exact opposite position.  Taking a QB would be a massive failure, for me.  In this era a team has limited resources made up of 2 parts, CAP and draft capital.  20% of their CAP space for 2024 is irrevocably committed to the QB1.  A top 5 pick represents about half to 2/3rds of their draft capital.  Trading up for a QB would just make it worse.  Spending that on a QB would completely unbalance the team.  Plus it would get a promising young QB killed.  They need to build a quality roster, not look for a savior.  There will be plenty of time to get a QB, particularly if they trade down and get a 2025 first rounder as part of the deal.

Completely agree! Reaching for a subpar talent at QB would set this franchise's rebuild back several years.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: DaveBrown74 on November 08, 2023, 03:18:55 PM
Quote from: Stringer Bell on November 08, 2023, 03:02:51 PMIf a team above us is taking the QB we like, that means they like him, as well. What makes you think they'd be willing to trade out and lose the guy they want?

I've always found it curious how easy fans make trading up seem.

Obviously if they like him too they're not going to trade down.  The idea would be to move up so they don't trade down with someone else (in the event that they don't intend to take him).

I have advocated doing whatever it takes to trade up to get the QB we want, but I have consistently caveated it with "if possible." I never said or implied it was easy. I appreciate you may not have been directing that last comment my way, but I just want to make my view clear on this anyway.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Dgoodmantrublu on November 08, 2023, 03:32:23 PM
I firmly believe we'll be in the top 2. If we tie with Arizona, we'll likely be ahead of them because their strength of schedule may be harder than ours. So we probably just need them to win one game. Maybe two. Bears and Carolina play Thursday and both have other winnable games. And they don't have the injuries the Giants do. So I do think the Giants will be in a spot to get one of the top two guys.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: katkavage on November 08, 2023, 03:58:00 PM
Quote from: Stringer Bell on November 08, 2023, 03:05:51 PMCompletely agree! Reaching for a subpar talent at QB would set this franchise's rebuild back several years.
That's on Schoen. He has to put his rep on the line. The franchise would indeed be set back (though hard to go back further than they are now). And Schoen would lose his job and most likely a career. We fans don't make the pick. He does. I don't think he will do what Gettleman did in reaching for a subpar QB just to have a QB.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: AZGiantFan on November 08, 2023, 04:42:01 PM
Quote from: Stringer Bell on November 08, 2023, 03:05:51 PMCompletely agree! Reaching for a subpar talent at QB would set this franchise's rebuild back several years.

I think it's a mistake to take a QB even if they aren't a sub-par talent.  Because the reality that some have spent 5 years ignoring, because of their bias against DJ, is that the Giants have a roster that is seriously sub-par.  And until they fix THAT, no QB is going to come in and be the saviour, and expending huge amounts of draft capital and CAP space to get a saviour that won't save them is going to come at a serious cost towards fixing that sub-par roster.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: SlotCorner on November 08, 2023, 05:09:27 PM
Quote from: AZGiantFan on November 08, 2023, 04:42:01 PMI think it's a mistake to take a QB even if they aren't a sub-par talent.  Because the reality that some have spent 5 years ignoring, because of their bias against DJ, is that the Giants have a roster that is seriously sub-par.  And until they fix THAT, no QB is going to come in and be the saviour, and expending huge amounts of draft capital and CAP space to get a saviour that won't save them is going to come at a serious cost towards fixing that sub-par roster.

A rookie QB is going to be on a rookie contract, which leaves plenty of cap room to build other areas of the team. In fact, having a decent QB on a rookie contract is an incredible competitive advantage, given what even mediocre QBs demand on the market. We will have some dead money after next year from now after we let DJ go but that is unavoidable at this point.

Also, pretend we do as you say and build the rest of the team first. Great, now we've got a team good enough to win 8 or 9 games, but not good enough to compete in the playoffs without a stud QB. Moving from 10 or 11 spots to the within striking distance of a great QB is either going to be impossible or cost more in picks and players than makes sense. Or we can hope to strike gold in a later-round QB who turns out to be great, but that's a winning lotto ticket.

There is a decent core here now. We've got pro bowl (or pro bowl deserving players) at OL, DL, LB (Okereke), CB (Banks) and RB. Now is the time while the opportunity presents itself to go get the franchise guy, like we did in 2004.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on November 08, 2023, 05:14:50 PM
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 08, 2023, 02:10:52 PMTake Harrison, Jr. He's a far better player than any of the remaining QB's.

In fact, he's also better than the two QB's already taken (repeating myself).

Also, you get your QB once you have a team that gives him a fair chance to succeed (also repeating myself).

Bob

I agree, and I also believe they aren't totally giving up on DJ. I wouldn't be surprised if they took a QB late 2nd or third round to groom, but they aren't quitting on DJ until they know he doesn't have the goods. He would be more durable if he wasn't constantly being smashed to the ground because the line can't hold

Harrison is a once in a lifetime receiver and would be our no.1 right out of the gate, opening up Hyatt, Robinson, etc. You run to the podium for him if the possibility presents itself. They'd probably cut Slayton to save money and move Hyatt into his slot...IMHO
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Dgoodmantrublu on November 08, 2023, 05:29:09 PM
How can you not know at this point. Jones was awful this year before being hurt and he has never had a truly good season in five years. It is time to move on. Especially when the team will finally be in position to get a true franchise guy. Passing on that chance would be gross negligence.

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on November 08, 2023, 05:14:50 PMI agree, and I also believe they aren't totally giving up on DJ. I wouldn't be surprised if they took a QB late 2nd or third round to groom, but they aren't quitting on DJ until they know he doesn't have the goods. He would be more durable if he wasn't constantly being smashed to the ground because the line can't hold

Harrison is a once in a lifetime receiver and would be our no.1 right out of the gate, opening up Hyatt, Robinson, etc. You run to the podium for him if the possibility presents itself. They'd probably cut Slayton to save money and move Hyatt into his slot...IMHO
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Doc16LT56 on November 08, 2023, 05:35:48 PM
Don't draft a franchise QB because the team stinks? Lol, now I've heard it all. If that were even remotely true they should go ahead and disband the franchise now.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Dgoodmantrublu on November 08, 2023, 05:37:54 PM
Hyatt gets open deep every game. QB misses throws except for a couple of games with Tyrod. But sure. Don't draft a QB. Because somehow nothing is ever the fault of the Daniel Jones. Have to give him 10 years to get it.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: DaveBrown74 on November 08, 2023, 05:44:07 PM
Quote from: Doc16LT56 on November 08, 2023, 05:35:48 PMDon't draft a franchise QB because the team stinks? Lol, now I've heard it all. If that were even remotely true they should go ahead and disband the franchise now.

Seriously.

People are overthinking this. If you don't have your QB of the future, which we clearly don't, and you're in a position to draft a QB you have graded as a franchise QB, there really isn't much thought involved after that.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Dgoodmantrublu on November 08, 2023, 05:55:47 PM
A lot of Giants fans wanted the team to draft Robert Gallery or Sean Taylor in 2004 instead of Eli. Boy were they wrong. And the people wanting the team not to draft a franchise QB are equally wrong now.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Painter on November 08, 2023, 06:14:29 PM
My Three Uns

Unprepared, Unmotivated, Unfortunate

The first two are largely a matter of opinion; the third can be viewed as more a matter of fact.
While it may be seen as "splitting hairs" to distinguish between the words, unfortunate and unlucky, as both are a consequent of chance, I find use in applying the former to an event, and the latter to an individual.
More particularly, while I would essentially absolve individual players and staff from blame for current and past injury history, I cannot conclude the same for the events which have given cause to the serious dilemma now facing the Giants and their fans.

I don't really know why, but on Monday I posted a summary of the Giants Win/Loss records from 1925 to the present- regular seasons, playoffs, and championships. In so doing, however, it occurred to me that through the first 9 games, this season has a good chance to rank among the worst- certainly most unprepared, unmotivated- in team history beginning with the 0-40 loss to the Cows on opening day.

Moreover, while they have somehow managed to win 2 games, they have thus far scored the fewest points and have the League's only triple-digit negative scoring differential. That does tend to mute any thought that they were only truly non-competitive in the first and the latest of those 9 games. And so, as it now stands, then where are the Giants? Do we have any idea beyond the conundrum, the resident elephant who wears No.10 and answers to Danny Dimes?

It's really not yet  about Coaching issues or Saquon's future, or when can they field an above average Defense, or a better than Division 2 Oline? It's all about Daniel Jones. They began the season believing that he was worth $160 million as a starting and winning Quarterback while now with no such confirmation, no certainty about when he will be able to be able to play again next year, they are guaranteed to have to pay him more than half that total amount.

In the meantime, having added nothing of obvious value to the position or the team since, we can either show some discipline and let the season play out as it will or begin an orgy of speculation as to how high from 5 or 6, and at what cost, they will need to trade up (with DaBears?) for one of this year's so called, "sure things" if the Flaw of Averages doesn't intervene.

I suppose if we look at QB success rate by draft position 1-16 over past 25 years, the odds are about 80 percent favorable, about 65 pct. 17-32. Very quickly thereafter it goes from not good to bloody awful.

Me? I'm just gonna watch and let others, who feel otherwise, tie themselves in knots

Cheers!


Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Brooklyn Dave on November 08, 2023, 06:59:51 PM
Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on November 08, 2023, 07:44:50 AMMarvin Harrison Jr is there, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are not... what should Schoen do?


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If both Williams and Maye are gone , the team with the 3rd pick would pick Harrison so he would be gone .
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on November 08, 2023, 07:43:20 PM
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on November 08, 2023, 05:29:09 PMHow can you not know at this point. Jones was awful this year before being hurt and he has never had a truly good season in five years. It is time to move on. Especially when the team will finally be in position to get a true franchise guy. Passing on that chance would be gross negligence.


For every "Franchise Quarterback" drafted early in the first round, there's a dozen washouts. The term "FRANCHISE" is not tatooed on their forehead, and it's anybody's guess. You are rolling the dice when drafting a QB and far more often than not, the guy doesn't have what the team was hoping for. I could list dozens of busts, but everyone already knows this and know who they are. For every Mahommes, there are "can't miss prospects", like Jeff George, Vince Young, David Carr, Tim Coach, Ryan Leaf...the list goes on and on

There are years when the QB crop looks amazing, like the '83 draft with Elway, Marino, Jim Kelly, and Ken O'Brien...or '04 class with Eli, Rivers, and Roethlisberger...after that, you have to go back to 1957 when I was 4-years-old and the '57 Chevy was making its way to the showroom floor in which Len Dawson, Sonny Jurgensen, and Jack Kemp

There is NOBODY claiming this year's QB crop is even remotely in that group of those years. It's a crap shoot, and you don't know what you have until you have half your cap wrapped up in a "can't miss" Kyler Murray or JaMarcus Russell
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Dgoodmantrublu on November 08, 2023, 08:29:44 PM
I think you are wrong. I think this class is comparable to 2004. I think you have forgotten what good QB play looks like. So you pine for yet another chance for Jones.

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on November 08, 2023, 07:43:20 PMFor every "Franchise Quarterback" drafted early in the first round, there's a dozen washouts. The term "FRANCHISE" is not tatooed on their forehead, and it's anybody's guess. You are rolling the dice when drafting a QB and far more often than not, the guy doesn't have what the team was hoping for. I could list dozens of busts, but everyone already knows this and know who they are. For every Mahommes, there are "can't miss prospects", like Jeff George, Vince Young, David Carr, Tim Coach, Ryan Leaf...the list goes on and on

There are years when the QB crop looks amazing, like the '83 draft with Elway, Marino, Jim Kelly, and Ken O'Brien...or '04 class with Eli, Rivers, and Roethlisberger...after that, you have to go back to 1957 when I was 4-years-old and the '57 Chevy was making its way to the showroom floor in which Len Dawson, Sonny Jurgensen, and Jack Kemp

There is NOBODY claiming this year's QB crop is even remotely in that group of those years. It's a crap shoot, and you don't know what you have until you have half your cap wrapped up in a "can't miss" Kyler Murray or JaMarcus Russell
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Painter on November 08, 2023, 09:11:55 PM
Had Justin Herbert not decided to stay in school for his Senior year, the G for Giants, G for Gettleman would have taken him over Daniel Jones with their 6th overall in 2019. Broke my heart it did. But as Dandy Don used to say, "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas."

Cheers!
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 08, 2023, 09:44:19 PM
This class isn't comparable to 2004 but it is comparable to 2020 where Burrow, Herbert, Tua, and Hurts were taken.

I just don't see how anyone can watch the Qb play we've had for 5 years now and say yeah give me more of that. I get Jones is a great guy but he's a pedestrian Qb. The NFL is a passing league and Jones has never been and never will be a high volume thrower. Tyrod Taylor played better football in 2023 than Daniel Jones. That sentence should never ever be the truth if Jones is a franchise QB.

Holding onto a bad Qb for 5 years might have been ok in the 80s but man the Giants have to get with the times so that we can actually start winning. Qbs maybe get 2-3 years to prove they have it REGARDLESS of talent around them and then they are gone.

Gotta start drafting qbs immediately until we get one that changes our fortunes because it definitely will never be Daniel Jones.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Dgoodmantrublu on November 08, 2023, 10:39:21 PM
I am higher on them than you. We won't know who's correct for a few years.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 08, 2023, 09:44:19 PMThis class isn't comparable to 2004 but it is comparable to 2020 where Burrow, Herbert, Tua, and Hurts were taken.

I just don't see how anyone can watch the Qb play we've had for 5 years now and say yeah give me more of that. I get Jones is a great guy but he's a pedestrian Qb. The NFL is a passing league and Jones has never been and never will be a high volume thrower. Tyrod Taylor played better football in 2023 than Daniel Jones. That sentence should never ever be the truth if Jones is a franchise QB.

Holding onto a bad Qb for 5 years might have been ok in the 80s but man the Giants have to get with the times so that we can actually start winning. Qbs maybe get 2-3 years to prove they have it REGARDLESS of talent around them and then they are gone.

Gotta start drafting qbs immediately until we get one that changes our fortunes because it definitely will never be Daniel Jones.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Bob In PA on November 08, 2023, 10:42:06 PM
Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 08, 2023, 09:44:19 PMThis class isn't comparable to 2004 but it is comparable to 2020 where Burrow, Herbert, Tua, and Hurts were taken.

I just don't see how anyone can watch the Qb play we've had for 5 years now and say yeah give me more of that. I get Jones is a great guy but he's a pedestrian Qb. The NFL is a passing league and Jones has never been and never will be a high volume thrower. Tyrod Taylor played better football in 2023 than Daniel Jones. That sentence should never ever be the truth if Jones is a franchise QB.

Holding onto a bad Qb for 5 years might have been ok in the 80s but man the Giants have to get with the times so that we can actually start winning. Qbs maybe get 2-3 years to prove they have it REGARDLESS of talent around them and then they are gone.

Gotta start drafting qbs immediately until we get one that changes our fortunes because it definitely will never be Daniel Jones.

J: Having a bad QB is not ALONE a reason to draft a QB with a high first-round pick.

If anyone doesn't notice, I keep saying "high first-round" in most of my remarks about next year's draft.

That's because I'm not per se against drafting a QB next year.  If a guy they're 80 percent sure about falls to the 2nd or 3rd (or maybe bottom of the 1st) I've probably got no problem.

But a high 1st-rounder must be CONVINCINGLY special - he must stand out over a group of men who stand out.

If the brass agrees with me and don't see the "next Peyton" (or Elway, etc.) in this class AND they miss out on that maybe ONE special player they would have used the first overall pick on if they had it, then I don't believe it's out of the question that they might consider trading down in the 1st round for even more 2nd- or 3rd-round picks, or maybe even for a 1st in 2025.

Bob
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Brooklyn Dave on November 09, 2023, 03:26:27 AM
The QBs you want are gone as is Marvin Harrison JR. What is left when you pick are :
Fashanu OT from Penn State , Latu, edge rusher from UCLA, Bowers , TE from Georgia, Alt OT from Notre Dame .

Who is your choice ?
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on November 09, 2023, 08:07:50 AM
Quote from: Brooklyn Dave on November 09, 2023, 03:26:27 AMThe QBs you want are gone as is Marvin Harrison JR. What is left when you pick are :
Fashanu OT from Penn State , Latu, edge rusher from UCLA, Bowers , TE from Georgia, Alt OT from Notre Dame .

Who is your choice ?

For me? Fashanu

Reason: we must fix the line. I think you move Neal to LG next to Thomas as Neal was more natural working on the left side of the line and after two years of trying to make a RT out of him, it doesn't seem to suit him

If not Fashanu, then Bowers
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Philosophers on November 09, 2023, 10:34:52 AM
You can only draft a QB gunslinger if he is available to you.  You can't manufacture one.  Go get em but you better be right in your eval of him.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 09, 2023, 11:44:05 AM
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on November 08, 2023, 10:39:21 PMI am higher on them than you. We won't know who's correct for a few years.

Saying they are 2020 is not a dig at them, that 2020 class is imo the 2nd best qb class in 30+ years. That's a truly elite class.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 09, 2023, 11:46:35 AM
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 08, 2023, 10:42:06 PMJ: Having a bad QB is not ALONE a reason to draft a QB with a high first-round pick.

If anyone doesn't notice, I keep saying "high first-round" in most of my remarks about next year's draft.

That's because I'm not per se against drafting a QB next year.  If a guy they're 80 percent sure about falls to the 2nd or 3rd (or maybe bottom of the 1st) I've probably got no problem.

But a high 1st-rounder must be CONVINCINGLY special - he must stand out over a group of men who stand out.

If the brass agrees with me and don't see the "next Peyton" (or Elway, etc.) in this class AND they miss out on that maybe ONE special player they would have used the first overall pick on if they had it, then I don't believe it's out of the question that they might consider trading down in the 1st round for even more 2nd- or 3rd-round picks, or maybe even for a 1st in 2025.

Bob
I get that and I agree. I don't want them to reach and if they want I'm OK with waiting a year but I think they need to acknowledge that Jones was a mistake and that we are rebuilding so people temper their expectations. Its what they should have said from the beginning even when we won last season. 
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Stringer Bell on November 09, 2023, 12:40:51 PM
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on November 09, 2023, 08:07:50 AMFor me? Fashanu

Reason: we must fix the line. I think you move Neal to LG next to Thomas as Neal was more natural working on the left side of the line and after two years of trying to make a RT out of him, it doesn't seem to suit him

If not Fashanu, then Bowers

I would break my TV if they drafted a TE at #4.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Painter on November 09, 2023, 01:54:19 PM
Quote from: Philosophers on November 09, 2023, 10:34:52 AMYou can only draft a QB gunslinger if he is available to you.  You can't manufacture one.  Go get em but you better be right in your eval of him.

Is there anything more obvious than that, Joseph?
 
As Eli had just one winning season in his last 8 and went 9-26 at the end, it was not unreasonable for Gettleman to look to the Draft for a new starting QB. While by no means was everyone here happy when he used the overall No.2 pick on a RB even one as talented as Saquon, in hindsight, it doesn't seem all that likely that he would have come away with a Josh Allen instead of a Mayfield, Darnold, or Rosen or even less likely, Lamar Jackson.

While I personally believe that Gman would have grabbed Justin Herbert had he even expected him to be available the following year, I was not dismayed when he had not much choice but to take Daniel Jones with the 6th overall pick. Indeed, in watching DJ's Duke tapes where he looked like an Eli clone playing on a not very good team, I saw a lot of positives.

Even now, with his having had to play with a team with an often unimpressive lineup, with some questionable coaching, and nothing close to a history of consistently winning seasons, now compounded by serious durability concerns, I'm not interested in labeling DJ a bust, nor Schoen/Daboll for giving him the big 4-year deal.

That said, it doesn't alter the enormous challenge that all concerned now face nor make it any more certain that using whatever turns out to be their 1st Round pick on a new QB will prove to be the solution As I have said so often is that the NFL is, if nothing else, unpredictable.

Not that we need proof of such, but for Giants fans all that should be needed is to reflect on the fact that Eli Manning, whose regular season record has been described as "profoundly mediocre", somehow managed to win 2 Lombos by beating the Pats and their otherwise seemingly invincible GOAT.

Cheers!
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 09, 2023, 01:55:11 PM
There is an abundance of good oline prospects in this draft. No need wasting a first on one.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Bob In PA on November 09, 2023, 01:59:22 PM
Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 09, 2023, 11:46:35 AMI get that and I agree. I don't want them to reach and if they want I'm OK with waiting a year but I think they need to acknowledge that Jones was a mistake and that we are rebuilding so people temper their expectations. Its what they should have said from the beginning even when we won last season. 
J: They need to acknowledge it to themselves (if they didn't already). I don't think they'll ever admit it to us.

Sure, most of us here would probably say OK, let's move on with the improvement phase (yet again).

But IMO they think it will hurt business over all (fewer hot dogs and paraphernalia sold, etc.) and maybe the owners don't want to criticize any acts by past employees, because that would make it even harder to hire GM's and coaches for the team than I believe it already is.

And it'd open Pandora's box (an apology might become expected even for future errors, even if inconsequential).

Last, the bunker mentality IMO will never change, not only because they may be "stubborn" in that regard, but also because almost every team operates with a bunker mentality, so they are IMO in line with the crowd (a good place for those who may not know what they're doing to hide).

Bob
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Dgoodmantrublu on November 09, 2023, 02:00:30 PM
If we actually have pick one or two, we can get two really good prospects in round 2. Not having to trade up for that QB will be a huge help. I'd expect an OL and Edge prospect in round 2 in this scenario. Unless a really good WR drops into range, which is very possible.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: T200 on November 09, 2023, 02:01:54 PM
Quote from: Painter on November 09, 2023, 01:54:19 PMIs there anything more obvious than that, Joseph?
 
As Eli had just one winning season in his last 8 and went 9-26 at the end, it was not unreasonable for Gettleman to look to the Draft for a new starting QB. While by no means was everyone here happy when he used the overall No.2 pick on a RB even one as talented as Saquon, in hindsight, it doesn't seem all that likely that he would have come away with a Josh Allen instead of a Mayfield, Darnold, or Rosen or even less likely, Lamar Jackson.

While I personally believe that Gman would have grabbed Justin Herbert had he even expected him to be available the following year, I was not dismayed when he had not much choice but to take Daniel Jones with the 6th overall pick. Indeed, in watching DJ's Duke tapes where he looked like an Eli clone playing on a not very good team, I saw a lot of positives.

Even now, with his having had to play with a team with an often unimpressive lineup, with some questionable coaching, and nothing close to a history of consistently winning seasons, now compounded by serious durability concerns, I'm not interested in labeling DJ a bust, nor Schoen/Daboll for giving him the big 4-year deal.

That said, it doesn't alter the enormous challenge that all concerned now face nor make it any more certain that using whatever turns out to be their 1st Round pick on a new QB will prove to be the solution As I have said so often is that the NFL is, if nothing else, unpredictable.

Not that we need proof of such, but for Giants fans all that should be needed is to reflect on the fact that Eli Manning, whose regular season record has been described as "profoundly mediocre", somehow managed to win 2 Lombos by beating the Pats and their otherwise seemingly invincible GOAT.

Cheers!

Nice post, Larry.

As much as I still revel in it and watch the replays when they show them, my reticence is that it takes me closer to 'Cowboys Territory' than I want to be.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 09, 2023, 02:04:14 PM
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 09, 2023, 01:59:22 PMJ: They need to acknowledge it to themselves (if they didn't already). I don't think they'll ever admit it to us.

Sure, most of us here would probably say OK, let's move on with the improvement phase (yet again).

But IMO they think it will hurt business over all (fewer hot dogs and paraphernalia sold, etc.) and maybe the owners don't want to criticize any acts by past employees, because that would make it even harder to hire GM's and coaches for the team than I believe it already is.

And it'd open Pandora's box (an apology might become expected even for future errors, even if inconsequential).

Last, the bunker mentality IMO will never change, not only because they may be "stubborn" in that regard, but also because almost every team operates with a bunker mentality, so they are IMO in line with the crowd (a good place for those who may not know what they're doing to hide).

Bob
Just acknowledging that they were further along than they realized and that we are rebuilding is good for me. We are not that far off.

New medical/training staff
QB
Guard and tackle in FA
Pass rushers a 2A and 3rd rotational guy
Rb
Safety by FA or draft

Wr If you can to finish off the young trio
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Dgoodmantrublu on November 09, 2023, 02:13:11 PM
If you get a top QB, your team doesn't have to fill all the holes. Eli took a very mediocre team to a Super Bowl championship in 2011. Mahomes is carrying a Chiefs team with big problems at WR. Burrow took a Bengals team with a horrid OL to the Super Bowl. We are going to take a big jump next year if we get the right QB.
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: Painter on November 09, 2023, 06:58:13 PM
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on November 09, 2023, 02:13:11 PMIf you get a top QB, your team doesn't have to fill all the holes. Eli took a very mediocre team to a Super Bowl championship in 2011. Mahomes is carrying a Chiefs team with big problems at WR. Burrow took a Bengals team with a horrid OL to the Super Bowl. We are going to take a big jump next year if we get the right QB.

I am sorry to have to repeat Dandy Don Merrideth's favorite saying: "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas" but if is and will always be the operative word when it comes to projecting then to now, now to future, and if to gift. How that is not always clear to us, those whose only ability is in second-guessing after the fact, is due it would seem to our "need to believe" and thus to sustain our fan-atic-dom.

Cheers!
Title: Re: Assuming the 4th overall pick….
Post by: babywhales on November 10, 2023, 08:53:13 AM
Quote from: Stringer Bell on November 09, 2023, 12:40:51 PMI would break my TV if they drafted a TE at #4.

If they take a TE I would lose all faith in this team