Big Blue Huddle

Here are the rankings:

- 2019 ranked 17th -
- 2020 ranked 31st -
- 2021 ranked 30th -
- 2022 ranked 18th -
- 2023 ranked 30th -

The two years the Giants had a decent offensive line was in 2019 and 2022.

In both of those years Daniel Jones had his best seasons, including making the playoffs and winning a game in 2022.

The three years the Giants had an awful offensive line were in 2020, 2021, and 2023, ranked 31st, 30th, and 30th.

In those three years Daniel Jones had his worst years as a player, and the teams record was 6-10, 4-13, and 6-11.

My questions to everyone here is:

A) What can we learn from this data?

And

B) How important is the offensive line to Daniel Jones' success, and the team's ability to win as a whole?

No right or wrong answer here as I am just curious everyone's opinion?

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 02:22:38 PMHere are the rankings:

- 2019 ranked 17th -
- 2020 ranked 31st -
- 2021 ranked 30th -
- 2022 ranked 18th -
- 2023 ranked 30th -

The two years the Giants had a decent offensive line was in 2019 and 2022.

In both of those years Daniel Jones had his best seasons, including making the playoffs and winning a game in 2022.

The three years the Giants had an awful offensive line were in 2020, 2021, and 2023, ranked 31st, 30th, and 30th.

In those three years Daniel Jones had his worst years as a player, and the teams record was 6-10, 4-13, and 6-11.

My questions to everyone here is:

A) What can we learn from this data?

And

B) How important is the offensive line to Daniel Jones' success, and the team's ability to win as a whole?

No right or wrong answer here as I am just curious everyone's opinion?

The OL is important to any QB's success.  Ask any QB.

The other thing that struck me is that Jones has never had the opportunity to work with an offensive line that was in the top half (not top third, just half) of the league.  Talk about being in an unappealing position.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 19, 2024, 02:27:25 PMThe other thing that struck me is that Jones has never had the opportunity to work with an offensive line that was in the top half (not top third, just half) of the league.  Talk about being in an unappealing position.

Mighty,

That is a phenomenal point, you are so right, excellent, excellent observation!

Wow!

Thanks for your contribution.

Quote from: Philosophers on April 19, 2024, 02:26:09 PMThe OL is important to any QB's success.  Ask any QB.

yes, I agree, and thank you for your answer

So we were the 30th last year? Maybe I'm not remembering right, but I had thought the claim made by some here was that the line began to suddenly play much better once Jones went down, allowing the journeyman backup and undrafted rookie third string QB to perform better than Jones did.

If it was indeed the case that Tyrod and DeVito enjoyed better O line play than Jones, how did the line still ultimately only finish 3rd from the bottom of the league?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 02:33:18 PMSo we were the 30th last year? Maybe I'm not remembering right, but I had thought the claim made by some here was that the line began to suddenly play much better once Jones went down, allowing the journeyman backup and undrafted rookie third string QB to perform better than Jones did.

If it was indeed the case that Tyrod and DeVito enjoyed better O line play than Jones, how did the line still ultimately only finish 3rd from the bottom of the league?

That was the O-line's overall grade.  The PFF's pass-blocking grade was dead last with a putrid 43.4.  Being dead last has degrees, so a line can improve and still be dead last.   Then again, for your claims to make sense, one would have to believe the return of Andrew Thomas (and the subbing out of Neal) didn't improve the O-line.

Still, if one is dead set on finding fault with Jones...

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 02:22:38 PMHere are the rankings:

- 2019 ranked 17th -
- 2020 ranked 31st -
- 2021 ranked 30th -
- 2022 ranked 18th -
- 2023 ranked 30th -

I wonder what the corresponding grades for our receiving corps are.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 19, 2024, 02:42:54 PMI wonder what the corresponding grades for our receiving corps are.

Here are the two rankings per PFF

Pass Blocking

2019- 16
2020- 32
2021- 31
2022- 24
2023- 32

Receiving

2019- 17
2020- 25
2021- 31
2022- 27
2023- 32

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 19, 2024, 02:48:22 PMHere are the two rankings per PFF

Pass Blocking

2019- 16
2020- 32
2021- 31
2022- 24
2023- 32

Receiving

2019- 17
2020- 25
2021- 31
2022- 27
2023- 32

WRs need a good OL too.  Marginal WR play may not be due completely with the WRs themselves. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 19, 2024, 02:48:22 PMHere are the two rankings per PFF

Pass Blocking

2019- 16
2020- 32
2021- 31
2022- 24
2023- 32

Receiving

2019- 17
2020- 25
2021- 31
2022- 27
2023- 32

The receiving core is just as bad, yeesh!

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 02:33:18 PMSo we were the 30th last year? Maybe I'm not remembering right, but I had thought the claim made by some here was that the line began to suddenly play much better once Jones went down, allowing the journeyman backup and undrafted rookie third string QB to perform better than Jones did.

If it was indeed the case that Tyrod and DeVito enjoyed better O line play than Jones, how did the line still ultimately only finish 3rd from the bottom of the league?

Dave,

Thank you for your contributions, and you make an interesting point.

I would say that the competition that Tyrod and Devito played against was a bit easier than the buzzsaw that DJ ran into in the first five games of the season.

I also think Mighty's point is quite valid, that the return of Andrew Thomas "after" DJ got hurt would have to be factored into how the O line played better.

However, the data that has been presented is not just for one year, but over a five year period. In those five years the two years where the O line played well, the team and DJ had success.

The three years that it didn't perform well, DJ and the team failed.

Just curious, what data can we extrapolate with regards to the O line, and how much of a factor is it in the team's success?

Curious your thoughts? 

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 03:23:47 PMDave,

Thank you for your contributions, and you make an interesting point

Pleasure, and back at you.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 03:23:47 PMI would say that the competition that Tyrod and Devito played against was a bit easier than the buzzsaw that DJ ran into in the first five games of the season.

Fair enough. Jones did face tougher competition in 2023 than the others, that is true. No argument from me there.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 03:23:47 PMI also think Mighty's point is quite valid, that the return of Andrew Thomas "after" DJ got hurt would have to be factored into how the O line played better.

Ok, but Jones played two of his six games last year with Thomas active, and he looked utterly wretched in both games. He got hurt in the second quarter of one of them, so it's just one and change games (I get not a big sample), but there is no evidence that he was much better with Thomas last year than without him. And we have both seen him start plenty of games with Thomas at LT where Jones looked bad.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 03:23:47 PMHowever, the data that has been presented is not just for one year, but over a five year period. In those five years the two years where the O line played well, the team and DJ had success.

The team had some modest success in 2022 (9-7-1), although they were a bottom third passing offense. What was the other year that Jones was the starter in which the team had success?

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 03:23:47 PMJust curious, what data can we extrapolate with regards to the O line, and how much of a factor is it in the team's success?

Curious your thoughts? 

I think offensive line play is very important and have certainly never suggested otherwise. Well all know the Giants have had very poor line play for a decade now. I don't think that gives Jones a full pass though, as some seem to. I think he has been bad, even taking that into account, and I would argue that last year was pretty telling in this regard.[/quote]

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 03:56:32 PMPleasure, and back at you.

Fair enough. Jones did face tougher competition in 2023 than the others, that is true. No argument from me there.

Ok, but Jones played two of his six games last year with Thomas active, and he looked utterly wretched in both games. He got hurt in the second quarter of one of them, so it's just one and change games (I get not a big sample), but there is no evidence that he was much better with Thomas last year than without him. And we have both seen him start plenty of games with Thomas at LT where Jones looked bad.

The team had some modest success in 2022 (9-7-1), although they were a bottom third passing offense. What was the other year that Jones was the starter in which the team had success?

I think offensive line play is very important and have certainly never suggested otherwise. Well all know the Giants have had very poor line play for a decade now. I don't think that gives Jones a full pass though, as some seem to. I think he has been bad, even taking that into account, and I would argue that last year was pretty telling in this regard.

Yes but in one of those games (first game of season) with Thomas against Dallas, he got sacked I think 9 times and pressured heavily on well over 50% of his throws.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 19, 2024, 02:48:22 PMHere are the two rankings per PFF

Pass Blocking

2019- 16
2020- 32
2021- 31
2022- 24
2023- 32

Receiving

2019- 17
2020- 25
2021- 31
2022- 27
2023- 32

So DJ was screwed on both counts, although some will blame him for the WR rankings.

Thanks, Rich, for looking this up.

Great thread and a strong and clear argument from OP SXDX...pointing to the main reason for DJ's struggles.

Those who still deny such clear stats may say that some QBs (very few) have done better with poor O line. My answer:

1- Those are rare QBs, meaning, even if you draft a good one, he might not be the rare kind, to do it behind a bad line.
2- Jones also lacked the Receivers who could run crisp routes and get open in the little time Jones had to throw.
3- Most QBs lose their confidence and focus when they are under constant pressure; so they will miss some open receivers now and then... even QBs with better lines make those mistakes and make the wrong reads now and then.

Well, no matter what people think, the bottom line is he'll probably be the starter again this year for much, most, or possibly all of the season if he can somehow stay healthy. The line has been materially invested in including a significant head coaching upgrade. So those who still feel unsure about him after five years will get a chance to watch him again in his sixth, with even more resources having been thrown at the line. So hopefully those folks will get some answers either way this year and won't need a 7th year.

Quote from: GloryDays on April 19, 2024, 04:24:27 PMGreat threat and a strong and clear argument from OP SXDX...pointing to the main reason for DJ's struggles.

Those who still deny such clear stats may say that some QBs (very few) have done better with poor O line. My answer:

1- Those are rare QBs, meaning, even if you draft a good one, he might not be the rare kind, to do it behind a bad line.
2- Jones also lacked the Receivers who could run crisp routes and get open in the little time Jones had to throw.
3- Most QBs lose their confidence and focus when they are under constant pressure; so they will miss some open receivers now and then... even QBs with better lines make those mistakes and make the wrong reads now and then.

Glory,

Thank you so much my friend.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 05:05:16 PMWell, no matter what people think, the bottom line is he'll probably be the starter again this year for much, most, or possibly all of the season if he can somehow stay healthy. The line has been materially invested in including a significant head coaching upgrade. So those who still feel unsure about him after five years will get a chance to watch him again in his sixth, with even more resources having been thrown at the line. So hopefully those folks will get some answers either way this year and won't need a 7th year.

Although as we've seen for the last 10 years, throwing resources at the line doesn't necessarily translate to better line play.  I'll only believe if and when the line actually plays better.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 05:05:16 PMWell, no matter what people think, the bottom line is he'll probably be the starter again this year for much, most, or possibly all of the season if he can somehow stay healthy. The line has been materially invested in including a significant head coaching upgrade. So those who still feel unsure about him after five years will get a chance to watch him again in his sixth, with even more resources having been thrown at the line. So hopefully those folks will get some answers either way this year and won't need a 7th year.

I dont think it's fair to just say they keep throwing resources at the line and he continues to get more years.  Fact is those investments in the OL have been failures.  Even Thomas cant stay healthy.  That is not a QB's fault.  Would Patrick Mahommes do better behind that OL than DJ?  Yeah probably a bit.  Would Patrick be Patrick behind that OL?  No way.

Quote from: Philosophers on April 19, 2024, 06:40:08 PMI dont think it's fair to just say they keep throwing resources at the line and he continues to get more years.  Fact is those investments in the OL have been failures.  Even Thomas cant stay healthy.  That is not a QB's fault.  Would Patrick Mahommes do better behind that OL than DJ?  Yeah probably a bit.  Would Patrick be Patrick behind that OL?  No way.

I'm not claiming he would be, nor do I think that.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 06:58:09 PMI'm not claiming he would be, nor do I think that.

I know you are not.  My point is just changing QBs will not make much of a difference til OL is performing.

The implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Quote from: Philosophers on April 19, 2024, 06:40:08 PMWould Patrick be Patrick behind that OL?  No way.

Yes he would! He would be the same Patrick during SB against TB, when he was hitting WR/TE 30 yards downfield from a horizontal position, playing behind an atrocious oline.  Was there any doubt he was the best player on the field that evening?  You simply can't hide that type of talent! The same was true for Joe Burrow, playing behind an Oline that allowed an NFL high 19-sacks during their playoff run. You can throw-in Herberts record-breaking rookie season behind the NFL #32 ranked oline.  I could go on-and-on about QBs who still produced playing behind terrible lines in the modern era.  To be clear, I freely admit the W/L will be impacted; however, a QB can still produce and showcase unique abilities playing behind below-avg OLs.  To date, DJ has done neither... 

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 03:23:47 PMI would say that the competition that Tyrod and Devito played against was a bit easier than the buzzsaw that DJ ran into in the first five games of the season.

Also in 2022, the Giants faced far fewer top 10 defences.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 19, 2024, 02:27:25 PMThe other thing that struck me is that Jones has never had the opportunity to work with an offensive line that was in the top half (not top third, just half) of the league.  Talk about being in an unappealing position.

... or an elite NFL WR. Bob

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

This is what happens when you only look at part of the issue


Here are the full rankings (there is no OC/HC rankings so admittedly we are still looking at just 2 of the three pillars)

2020 Chargers  Pass-Blocking- 30th  Receiving 12th  QBR 13th

2021 Dolphins  Pass-Blocking- 32nd  Receiving 18th  QBR 18th NOTE- lack of protection injured QB 

2023 Seahawks  Pass-Blocking- 28th  Receiving 7th  QBR 14th

2023 Cards  Pass-Blocking- 17th  Receiving 27th  QBR 22nd


This is why you should always look at the whole picture rather than select pieces.  If you want an accurate picture you need to be systematic and complete in one's examination

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 20, 2024, 07:56:44 AMThis is what happens when you only look at part of the issue


Here are the full rankings (there is no OC/HC rankings so admittedly we are still looking at just 2 of the three pillars)

2020 Chargers  Pass-Blocking- 30th  Receiving 12th  QBR 13th

2021 Dolphins  Pass-Blocking- 32nd  Receiving 18th  QBR 18th NOTE- lack of protection injured QB 

2023 Seahawks  Pass-Blocking- 28th  Receiving 7th  QBR 14th

2023 Cards  Pass-Blocking- 17th  Receiving 27th  QBR 22nd


This is why you should always look at the whole picture rather than select pieces.  If you want an accurate picture you need to be systematic and complete in one's examination

The OP provided the aggregate ratings of the olines, I responded in kind.

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Let's use number of sacks as that is a better measurement.

2023 - Daniel Jones - played in 6 games, sacked 30 times, 160 pass attempts so was sacked once every 5.33 pass attempts.

2020 - Justin Herbert - played in 15 games, sacked only 32 times, 595 pass attempts so was sacked once every 18.6 pass attempts.

2021 - Tua - played in 13 games, sacked only 20 times, 388 pass attempts so was sacked once every 19.4 pass attempts.

2023 - Geno Smith - played in 15 games, sacked only 31 times, 499 pass attempts so sacked once every 16.1 pass attempts.

Kyler Murray - played in only 8 games, sacked only 18 times, 268 pass attempts so sacked once every 14.9 pass attempts.

These QBs you cite were not getting pressured at anything remotely close to what DJ endured.  Sacked every 5.33 attempts versus 14 - 19 attempts is statistically very meaningful and very different.  Your comparison is not remotely reasonable.  I am not saying DJ is a good QB or as good as the QBs you cite.   

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 04:31:39 AMYes he would! He would be the same Patrick during SB against TB, when he was hitting WR/TE 30 yards downfield from a horizontal position, playing behind an atrocious oline.  Was there any doubt he was the best player on the field that evening?  You simply can't hide that type of talent! The same was true for Joe Burrow, playing behind an Oline that allowed an NFL high 19-sacks during their playoff run. You can throw-in Herberts record-breaking rookie season behind the NFL #32 ranked oline.  I could go on-and-on about QBs who still produced playing behind terrible lines in the modern era.  To be clear, I freely admit the W/L will be impacted; however, a QB can still produce and showcase unique abilities playing behind below-avg OLs.  To date, DJ has done neither... 

You can't cite just one game and conclude a player would play at a high level under those conditions always.  That is simply not statistically reasonable to use a 1 game sample.

I agree he played well in that game.  However let's see him get sacked 60 times in a 17 game season and instead of getting sacked every 15 - 18 times he throws the ball, he gets sacked every 5-6 times he throws the ball.  What will happen? 

He will start to get very frustrated he is getting hit that much and that frustration will boil over to his teammates making him do things he would not normally do like throw and duck to avoid a more painful hit or look toward the pressure for a split second more and not at his WR making a break so he won't have as good a feel for the rhythm of the route.  Will he do better than Daniel Jones?  Yes.  Will he do as well as a typical Mahommes season of getting sacked under 30 times per season?  No way.

Quote from: Philosophers on April 20, 2024, 08:57:05 AMLet's use number of sacks as that is a better measurement.

2023 - Daniel Jones - played in 6 games, sacked 30 times, 160 pass attempts so was sacked once every 5.33 pass attempts.

2020 - Justin Herbert - played in 15 games, sacked only 32 times, 595 pass attempts so was sacked once every 18.6 pass attempts.

2021 - Tua - played in 13 games, sacked only 20 times, 388 pass attempts so was sacked once every 19.4 pass attempts.

2023 - Geno Smith - played in 15 games, sacked only 31 times, 499 pass attempts so sacked once every 16.1 pass attempts.

Kyler Murray - played in only 8 games, sacked only 18 times, 268 pass attempts so sacked once every 14.9 pass attempts.

These QBs you cite were not getting pressured at anything remotely close to what DJ endured.  Sacked every 5.33 attempts versus 14 - 19 attempts is statistically very meaningful and very different.  Your comparison is not remotely reasonable.  I am not saying DJ is a good QB or as good as the QBs you cite.   

QBs have zero culpability on plays that end in sacks?  Is it possible DJ is sacked a lot as a byproduct of his limited processing and/or awareness? 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Hi King,

Thank you so much for your contribution and your willingness to contribute to the thread.

I would like to add to Mighty and Philosophers fine comments regarding skill position attributes and sack rate.

You had mentioned Justin Herbert, which I think we both would agree is a very good QB.

However, in my original post, I had shared the data over a five-year period regarding DJ, and not just one.

Can we do the same with Herbert?

Chargers offensive lines over the last four years

- 2020 ranked 32nd -
- 2021 ranked 10th -
- 2022 ranked 12th -
- 2023 ranked 9th -

So, while it is true that Herbert produced with the 32nd ranked O line for one year back in 2020, since that time his O lines have been upgraded ranking 10th, 12th, and 9th respectively.

Rhetorical questions here, but

A) If Herberts O lines were ranked 30th, 32nd, 30th, and 31st over the past four years, would he have still consistently put up the same numbers?

B) If he was getting sacked and hit as much as DJ has been over the same four years, could he possibly have gotten injured?

C) Would that have affected his QB play? Or would he still be producing at a high rate and it would have no affect on him?

Just curious your thoughts?

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 04:31:39 AMYes he would! He would be the same Patrick during SB against TB, when he was hitting WR/TE 30 yards downfield from a horizontal position, playing behind an atrocious oline.  Was there any doubt he was the best player on the field that evening?  You simply can't hide that type of talent! The same was true for Joe Burrow, playing behind an Oline that allowed an NFL high 19-sacks during their playoff run. You can throw-in Herberts record-breaking rookie season behind the NFL #32 ranked oline.  I could go on-and-on about QBs who still produced playing behind terrible lines in the modern era.  To be clear, I freely admit the W/L will be impacted; however, a QB can still produce and showcase unique abilities playing behind below-avg OLs.  To date, DJ has done neither... 

Hi King,

Again, thank you so much for your contributions to the thread. However, may I address your comments defending Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay?

I decided to look up his stats in that game, may I share them with you?

Here they are:

26/49 53% 270 Yards 0 TD 2 Int 42.2 QBR 52.3 RTG

And the Chiefs put up 9 points and lost 31-9.

So, I'm not sure I would use that argument that Mahomes would still be producing at a high level when his offensive line was getting manhandled by the Bucs in that game.

So, some more rhetorical questions for you, but if Mahomes was under this kind of pressure for a full 17 game season, would he still be producing the same numbers that he is now?

And

B) If he was under this kind of pressure over a 5 year period, could he possibly of gotten injured? and could this have affected his QB play? Or would this have no impact on his play whatsoever?

Just curious your thoughts? 

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 20, 2024, 09:40:11 AMHi King,

Thank you so much for your contribution and your willingness to contribute to the thread.

I would like to add to Mighty and Philosophers fine comments regarding skill position attributes and sack rate.

You had mentioned Justin Herbert, which I think we both would agree is a very good QB.

However, in my original post, I had shared the data over a five-year period regarding DJ, and not just one.

Can we do the same with Herbert?

Chargers offensive lines over the last four years

- 2020 ranked 32nd -
- 2021 ranked 10th -
- 2022 ranked 12th -
- 2023 ranked 9th -

So, while it is true that Herbert produced with the 32nd ranked O line for one year back in 2020, since that time his O lines have been upgraded ranking 10th, 12th, and 9th respectively.

Rhetorical questions here, but

A) If Herberts O lines were ranked 30th, 32nd, 30th, and 31st over the past four years, would he have still consistently put up the same numbers?

B) If he was getting sacked and hit as much as DJ has been over the same four years, could he possibly have gotten injured?

C) Would that have affected his QB play? Or would he still be producing at a high rate and it would have no affect on him?

Just curious your thoughts?

While I truly appreciate your efforts, this data has nothing to do with your original premise, which attempts to draw a correlation between QB metrics and oline rankings.  Showing Herbert's 5-year online rankings does not invalidate what he accomplished during his rookie season.  Also, it's interesting to note that Herbert's numbers did not increase with better protection; in some cases, they actually decreased.  Moreover, he was actually injured with his higher-ranked lines.  This data literally proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. 

Wil DJ play better with an Oline..YES.  Will he magically become something he's never been...I continue to say no. 

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 20, 2024, 09:48:41 AMHi King,

Again, thank you so much for your contributions to the thread. However, may I address your comments defending Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay?

I decided to look up his stats in that game, may I share them with you?

Here they are:

26/49 53% 270 Yards 0 TD 2 Int 42.2 QBR 52.3 RTG

And the Chiefs put up 9 points and lost 31-9.

So, I'm not sure I would use that argument that Mahomes would still be producing at a high level when his offensive line was getting manhandled by the Bucs in that game.

So, some more rhetorical questions for you, but if Mahomes was under this kind of pressure for a full 17 game season, would he still be producing the same numbers that he is now?

And

B) If he was under this kind of pressure over a 5 year period, could he possibly of gotten injured? and could this have affected his QB play? Or would this have no impact on his play whatsoever?

Just curious your thoughts?

Hey SDX!  If you don't mind, please read what I posted again; I was very precise with my language.  I simply don't know how any fan could watch that game and not be an awe of Patrick Mahomes; he demonstrated skills in that game no other QB could duplicate. 

Quote from: Philosophers on April 20, 2024, 08:57:05 AMLet's use number of sacks as that is a better measurement.

2023 - Daniel Jones - played in 6 games, sacked 30 times, 160 pass attempts so was sacked once every 5.33 pass attempts.

2020 - Justin Herbert - played in 15 games, sacked only 32 times, 595 pass attempts so was sacked once every 18.6 pass attempts.

2021 - Tua - played in 13 games, sacked only 20 times, 388 pass attempts so was sacked once every 19.4 pass attempts.

2023 - Geno Smith - played in 15 games, sacked only 31 times, 499 pass attempts so sacked once every 16.1 pass attempts.

Kyler Murray - played in only 8 games, sacked only 18 times, 268 pass attempts so sacked once every 14.9 pass attempts.

These QBs you cite were not getting pressured at anything remotely close to what DJ endured.  Sacked every 5.33 attempts versus 14 - 19 attempts is statistically very meaningful and very different.  Your comparison is not remotely reasonable.  I am not saying DJ is a good QB or as good as the QBs you cite.   

Why do you continue to place the onus of sacks entirely on the line?  The QB has immense culpabilities and is equally responsible for sacks. If you have time, read the article below; it's chalked full of relevant data that highlights the fallacy of attributing sacks to lines.   

"We know from past research that sacks are more a quarterback stat than we typically believed. A quarterback has more control over an offense's sack rate than the offensive line."

Key Takeaways
To wrap up, let's run through the key takeaways from the analysis above.

1. Quarterbacks control their own sack rate, and they are likely responsible for the quality of sacks they take too. We know this because QBs who change teams tend to have their sack quality follow them. If the offensive line or poor coaching was responsible for sack quality, it wouldn't follow the QBs to new teams.

2. If you read a comparison showing one QB has been sacked 30 times and another has been sacked 15, do not assume the QB who has been sacked 30 times has cost his team twice as many points because of the sacks.

3. Anecdotally, mobile QBs have tended to take less costly sacks.

4. Finally, we can see some of the biggest sack quality outliers in today's NFL. Lamar Jackson takes plenty of sacks, but he avoids losing expected points on a per sack basis better than any starter in the NFL today. On the other hand, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott have been the worst at taking costly sacks among today's starters.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/are-nfl-quarterbacks-responsible-for-sack-quality

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 09:31:01 AMQBs have zero culpability on plays that end in sacks?  Is it possible DJ is sacked a lot as a byproduct of his limited processing and/or awareness? 

ALL QBs are responsible (including Mahommes) for some portion (maybe 10%?) of their team's sacks.  Giants played 3 QBs who collectively got sacked something like 85 times in 2023.  There is no way Mahommes or any QB would reduce that number to 30 times and only get sacked once every 15 - 18 times. 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 09:58:24 AMWhile I truly appreciate your efforts, this data has nothing to do with your original premise, which attempts to draw a correlation between QB metrics and oline rankings.  Showing Herbert's 5-year online rankings does not invalidate what he accomplished during his rookie season.  Also, it's interesting to note that Herbert's numbers did not increase with better protection; in some cases, they actually decreased.  Moreover, he was actually injured with his higher-ranked lines.  This data literally proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. 

Wil DJ play better with an Oline..YES.  Will he magically become something he's never been...I continue to say no. 

Hi King,

Once again thank you so much for your comments and contributions and expressing your thoughts and opinions, that was very kind of you.

I thank you for your honest expressions that DJ will play better with an upgraded O line, that means a lot.

But at the same time, you said that Herberts upgraded O line had no impact on his performance, wouldn't that be a contradiction?

In other words, if DJ's upgraded O line would help him perform better, why wouldn't the same application be towards Herbert? or any other QB?

Furthermore, if Herbert has been playing behind a top 10-12 offensive line these past 4 years, and he still got injured, may I ask what would have happened to him if was actually playing behind the 30th ranked o line for the past 4 years?

Some more rhetorical questions for you, but could he have gotten injured even more? Is his top 10 offensive line helping him to stay relatively healthy?

Wouldn't his O line be playing a measure in his performance to stay upright?

Just curious your thoughts?

Quote from: Philosophers on April 20, 2024, 10:08:45 AMALL QBs are responsible (including Mahommes) for some portion (maybe 10%?) of their team's sacks.  Giants played 3 QBs who collectively got sacked something like 85 times in 2023.  There is no way Mahommes or any QB would reduce that number to 30 times and only get sacked once every 15 - 18 times.

The overwhelming evidence suggest it's a lot more than 10%.  But we can agree to disagree on this subject. 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 09:58:24 AMWhile I truly appreciate your efforts, this data has nothing to do with your original premise, which attempts to draw a correlation between QB metrics and oline rankings.  Showing Herbert's 5-year online rankings does not invalidate what he accomplished during his rookie season.  Also, it's interesting to note that Herbert's numbers did not increase with better protection; in some cases, they actually decreased.  Moreover, he was actually injured with his higher-ranked lines.  This data literally proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. 

Wil DJ play better with an Oline..YES.  Will he magically become something he's never been...I continue to say no. 

Hi King,

Thank you so much for continuing to contribute your expressions, it is very thoughtful of you.

I noticed you also mentioned QB Kyler Murray, may I share with you his O line rankings over the past 5 years, and how they may have impacted him?

Arizona Cardinals O line ranking

- 2019 ranked 22nd -
- 2020 ranked 12th -
- 2021 ranked 15th -
- 2022 ranked 25th -
- 2023 ranked 31st -

From 2019 through 2021 his O line improved and so did his stats.

Now please notice what happens to him when his O line begins to degrade in 2022 and 2023, playing behind the 25th and 31st ranked O line.

In 2022 he only plays in 11 games and is injured.

His RTG drops from 100.6 to 87.2, his 63.2 to 53.6, his avg drops from 7.9 to 6.1, his comp % drops from 69% to 66%.

In 2023 playing behind the 31st ranked O line, and he only plays in 8 game before being injured.

His RTG is 89.4, his QBR drops to 47.2, his Comp % drops to 65%, compared to what he was producing in 2020-2021 when he was given a top 15 O line.

Some more rhetorical questions for you, but do you think playing behind an atrocious O line in 2022 and 2023 had any impact on Kyler Murray's performance?

Do you think playing behind a bad O line could have had any impact on why he got injured in 2022 and 2023, only playing in 11 and 8 games respectively?

Just curious your thoughts?

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 20, 2024, 10:15:21 AMHi King,



But at the same time, you said that Herberts upgraded O line had no impact on his performance, wouldn't that be a contradiction?

This is a statement of fact, not an opinion; Herberts aggregate numbers did not increase with better rated lines. He remains a top 10 QB, with or without a top 10 Oline, which is precisely my point.

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 10:05:40 AMsacks are more a quarterback stat than we typically believed

To a degree, that claim has some validity.  Of course, if we start looking at pressure and, more importantly, time to pressure, we can see very clearly the challenges that Daniel Jones faced that were unique among QBs

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAImrKxWIAAZype?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 10:30:19 AMThis is a statement of fact, not an opinion; Herberts aggregate numbers did not increase with better rated lines. He remains a top 10 QB, with or without a top 10 Oline, which is precisely my point.

Hi King,

I appreciate your efforts here, but sadly you're not answering my question, or possibly dodging it, so I'll ask it again.

If Herbert has been playing behind a top 10-12 offensive line these past 4 years, and he still got injured, right? May I ask what would have happened to him if was actually playing behind the 30th ranked O line for these past 4 years?

Could that have affected him getting injured even more? And if he had gotten injured, wouldn't the performance of his O line play a part in that?

Just curious your thoughts?

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 20, 2024, 10:31:47 AMTo a degree, that claim has some validity.  Of course, if we start looking at pressure and, more importantly, time to pressure, we can see very clearly the challenges that Daniel Jones faced that were unique among QBs

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAImrKxWIAAZype?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

This is a very small sample, covering just 5 of 60 of Jones' games. 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 10:35:44 AMThis is a very small sample, covering just 5 of 60 of Jones' games. 

Yet so many fans want the Giants to bail on DJ's contract based on that same "small sample"

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 20, 2024, 10:34:33 AMHi King,

I appreciate your efforts here, but sadly you're not answering my question, or possibly dodging it, so I'll ask it again.

If Herbert has been playing behind a top 10-12 offensive line these past 4 years, and he still got injured, right? May I ask what would have happened to him if was actually playing behind the 30th ranked O line for these past 4 years?

Just curious your thoughts?

This isn't a hypothetical question; we know the answer, in 2020 he played behind the NFLs literal worst Oline and set all-time rookie passing numbers, while remaining mostly healthy.  This year he was injured for 5-games when he fractured his finger on a helmet, on a completed pass-play, and one he remained upright.  I am not making ANY correlations between said injury and PFF oline ratings.  To suggest the same injury would have occurred behind a weaker line is hardly fact based.  To that end, I find this particular question (in an otherwise good thread) silly.  I'm not a big fan of guessing what would happen, and there's zero evidence to suggest PFF oline ratings have a direct correlation on QB injuries.   

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 20, 2024, 10:39:44 AMYet so many fans want the Giants to bail on DJ's contract based on that same "small sample"

60 games is a small sample size? 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 10:46:46 AMThis isn't a hypothetical question; we know the answer, in 2020 he played behind the NFLs literal worst Oline and set all-time rookie passing numbers, while remaining mostly healthy.  This year he was injured for 5-games when he fractured his finger on a helmet, on a completed pass-play, and one he remained upright.  I am not making ANY correlations between said injury and PFF oline ratings.

Hi King,

So, I'll ask you a 3rd time, and I'll leave it at that, but if Herbert got injured playing behind a top 10-12 ranked O line these past four years. Could it be "possible" that he would have gotten injured even more playing behind the 30th ranked O line these past four years?

It's a simple yes or no answer, if you could please honestly answer the question that would be kind of you.

As I have no further questions.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 20, 2024, 10:39:44 AMYet so many fans want the Giants to bail on DJ's contract based on that same "small sample"

Including, very possibly, the Giants themselves.

By actually being willing to take a $47mm cap hit this season when they could easily spread that hit out over future years, they are clearly demonstrating that they want to preserve the ability to cut him after this season. There is simply no other reason to absorb that entire hit this year.

Does that mean they 100% definitely will cut him after 2024? No. But it definitely means they want to make sure they are able to. In other words, they too are considering bailing on it after this season.

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 10:46:46 AMThis isn't a hypothetical question; we know the answer, in 2020 he played behind the NFLs literal worst Oline

Matt,

You were provided with data showing that the Chargers' pass blocking was 30th, yet you insist on claiming that Herbert "played behind the NFL's literal worst O-line."  That isn't true in the literal or figurative sense. Plus, you failed to mention that Herbert was boosted by the 12th-best receiving group in the NFL.

Stats should be used to learn and help us reach quality conclusions. They shouldn't be selectively used (or ignored) to prove a point or claim.  Are we trying to prove we are right, or are we trying to reach the right conclusions?

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 20, 2024, 10:52:48 AMHi King,

So, I'll ask you a 3rd time, and I'll leave it at that, but if Herbert got injured playing behind a top 10-12 ranked O line these past four years. Could it be "possible" that he would have gotten injured even more playing behind the 30th ranked O line these past four years?

It's a simple yes or no answer, if you could please honestly answer the question that would be kind of you.

As I have no further questions.

This is a simple question to answer?

Again, this question is just silly. There is ZERO correlation between PFF oline ratings and QB injuries.  This year there were 16 starting QBs who missed game(s), from all over the oline rating spectrum. Watson played behind the NFL best Oline and missed 11 games.  Cousins missed 9 games behind the #13 line and Burrow missed 7 games behind the 17th line. The injuries are literally all over the spectrum.

Yes it's "possible"  he could of been "more" injured behind the Giants oline.  It's also equally "possible" he could sustain a career-ending injury playing behind the Browns or Phili lines. 

Besides, when reviewing DJ's past injuries, it's hard to place blame on the Oline.  Last years injury was during a non-contact play, as a byproduct of TRIPPING over a player the previous play.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6J5Ay80tG4&ab_channel=SimplyAS10

or this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKJERIcrOEc&ab_channel=HighlightHeaven

or this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBwxH0GAM_Y&ab_channel=HighlightHeaven

or this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mY2YDV9TCns&ab_channel=HighlightFeen
 
You're trying to draw conclusions directly refuted by the facts.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 20, 2024, 10:56:35 AMMatt,

You were provided with data showing that the Chargers' pass blocking was 30th, yet you insist on claiming that Herbert "played behind the NFL's literal worst O-line."  That isn't true in the literal or figurative sense. Plus, you failed to mention that Herbert was boosted by the 12th-best receiving group in the NFL.

Stats should be used to learn and help us reach quality conclusions. They shouldn't be selectively used (or ignored) to prove a point or claim.  Are we trying to prove we are right, or are we trying to reach the right conclusions?

Please read what I wrote; again, I'm very precise with my language.  I explicitly stated aggregate (i.e. total).  I'm using the exact same metric the OP introduced; he also used the aggregate rating. 

I had brought up Kyler Murrays offensive line issues in 2022 and 2023, and here is the injury he sustained last year directly related to the poor play of his line.

So, I will let the rest of the board decide if a poor offensive line can affect the play and health of a QB.

Clip down below.


Murray injury (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivUgo52rfZA)

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 20, 2024, 11:57:02 AMI had brought up Kyler Murrays offensive line issues in 2022 and 2023, and here is the injury he sustained last year directly related to the poor play of his line.

So, I will let the rest of the board decide if a poor offensive line can affect the play and health of a QB.

Clip down below.


Murray injury (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivUgo52rfZA)

Yes, an O line can influence QB health and QB play.

If your qrgument is that Jones would be a better QB than he has been with a great O line, then I would agree with you.

If your argument is that Jones would be a great QB with a great O line, then I would disagree with you.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 20, 2024, 11:57:02 AMI had brought up Kyler Murrays offensive line issues in 2022 and 2023, and here is the injury he sustained last year directly related to the poor play of his line.

So, I will let the rest of the board decide if a poor offensive line can affect the play and health of a QB.

Clip down below.


Murray injury (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivUgo52rfZA)

This play had absolutely nothing to do with Oline protection. The line executed the play, which involved crashing down to fool the defense into a strong side run; you can blame the play design, if you want, but it wasn't a result of poor pass protection.  It was a design rollout, predicated on misdirection.

Also, I'll continue to caution you against using a single piece of data to prove your point, while simultaneously ignoring other data that directly refutes it.  Below is a clip of Watson getting injured behind the Browns vaunted line.  Based on your criteria, we can conclude that QBs get injured behind top tier olines. That's my issue with your premise, SDX.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdsLQtxDV2c&ab_channel=SimplyAS10

The NFL has gone through great length to protect the QB, even those playing behind bad olines.  Again, DJ's ACL injury last year was non-contact and had nothing to do with the oline; yet, you continue to profess they did.    Even his Neck injury was a byproduct of a design run and not the fault of the oline. 
 

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 20, 2024, 12:21:26 PMYes, an O line can influence QB health and QB play.

If your qrgument is that Jones would be a better QB than he has been with a great O line, then I would agree with you.

If your argument is that Jones would be a great QB with a great O line, then I would disagree with you.

Dave,

I agree with you.

Especially with regards to your 3rd point.

He would be a better QB, possibly even good, but I don't think he will ever be an elite QB with a great O line, so I concur most definitely with your expressions.

However I don't think a team needs an elite QB to win a Superbowl, and once again I thank you for your reasonable comments and expressions, they are well received.

I now must do some errands, take care

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 12:29:18 PMThis play had absolutely nothing to do with Oline protection. The line executed the play, which involved crashing down to fool the defense into a strong side run; you can blame the play design, if you want, but it wasn't a result of poor pass protection.  It was a design rollout, predicated on misdirection.

Also, I'll continue to caution you against using a single piece of data to prove your point, while simultaneously ignoring other data that directly refutes it.  Below is a clip of Watson getting injured behind the Browns vaunted line.  Based on your criteria, we can conclude that QBs get injured behind top tier olines. That's my issue with your premise, SDX.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdsLQtxDV2c&ab_channel=SimplyAS10

The NFL has gone through great length to protect the QB, even those playing behind bad olines.  Again, DJ's ACL injury last year was non-contact and had nothing to do with the oline; yet, you continue to profess they did.    Even his Neck injury was a byproduct of a design run and not the fault of the oline. 
 

Hi King,

I will leave you with these final comments as I have some errands I have to run.

My original premise was can an offensive lines performance affect the performance of a QB?

DJ's best years were 2019 and 2022 when his O line performed decently.

In 2020,2021, and 2023 were his worst years, when the O line performed terribly.

This is over a five-year period, not a single piece of evidence.

I also provided Kyler Murrays two worst years were in 2022-2023 when his O line was awful as well.

So I leave you with these thoughts, can an o line have an affect negatively or positively on a QB?

That is all I have to say, as I have to get some things done today.

Please be well and I'm sure we will talk again.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 20, 2024, 01:18:47 PMHi King,

I will leave you with these final comments as I have some errands I have to run.

My original premise was can an offensive lines performance affect the performance of a QB?

DJ's best years were 2019 and 2022 when his O line performed decently.

In 2020,2021, and 2023 were his worst years, when the O line performed terribly.

This is over a five-year period, not a single piece of evidence.

I also provided Kyler Murrays two worst years were in 2022-2023 when his O line was awful as well.

So I leave you with these thoughts, can an o line have an affect negatively or positively on a QB?

That is all I have to say, as I have to get some things done today.

Please be well and I'm sure we will talk again.

Fundamentally I agree, with the previous exceptions. I also don't have as much faith in DJs abilities as you.  Regardless, have a great day, SDX.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 03:12:17 PMThe receiving core is just as bad, yeesh!

The Wr can't do anything if the Qb doesn't throw the ball.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 20, 2024, 04:05:26 PMThe Wr can't do anything if the Qb doesn't throw the ball.

Now THAT sounds like an excuse.

OL need to block and WRs need to get open.  QB needs to read D and hit open man.  It is not his job to block or throw to a WR not open.

I am ready to move on from DJ due to injuries and his unwillingness to take chances but let's remember what each player's role is and stop assigning positional responsibility to other positions.

Quote from: kingm56 on April 20, 2024, 04:31:39 AMYes he would! He would be the same Patrick during SB against TB, when he was hitting WR/TE 30 yards downfield from a horizontal position, playing behind an atrocious oline.  Was there any doubt he was the best player on the field that evening?  You simply can't hide that type of talent! The same was true for Joe Burrow, playing behind an Oline that allowed an NFL high 19-sacks during their playoff run. You can throw-in Herberts record-breaking rookie season behind the NFL #32 ranked oline.  I could go on-and-on about QBs who still produced playing behind terrible lines in the modern era.  To be clear, I freely admit the W/L will be impacted; however, a QB can still produce and showcase unique abilities playing behind below-avg OLs.  To date, DJ has done neither...

Mahomes Stats Tampa Bay Super Bowl

52.3 passer rating. 0 TDs. 2 interceptions in a 31-9 loss.

I believe your claim that Mahomes played well in that game is not supported by the stats or the eyeball test. Mahomes struggled the entire game and was largely ineffective with the loss of two starting tackles


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote from: todge on April 21, 2024, 01:34:01 PMMahomes Stats Tampa Bay Super Bowl

52.3 passer rating. 0 TDs. 2 interceptions in a 31-9 loss.

I believe your claim that Mahomes played well in that game is not supported by the stats or the eyeball test. Mahomes struggled the entire game and was largely ineffective with the loss of two starting tackles


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm a big fan of facts.  This is why I don't trust the "eye test" or memory.  Well done.  And this was with Kelce and Hill both playing, 2 of the best receivers in the league.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 21, 2024, 02:37:50 PMI'm a big fan of facts.  This is why I don't trust the "eye test" or memory.  Well done.  And this was with Kelce and Hill both playing, 2 of the best receivers in the league.

Interesting, because when it comes to DJ, you and Todge feel facts (ie stats) don't tell the whole story.  I guess in this one game, you're willing to make an exception because it fits your narrative.

Quote from: kingm56 on April 21, 2024, 02:47:11 PMInteresting, because when it comes to DJ, you and Todge feel facts (ie stats) don't tell the whole story.  I guess in this one game, you're willing to make an exception because it fits your narrative.

Absolutely hands down the best response I've ever heard for the whole DJ, Oline, Pat Mahomes in the super bowl statement. If you have time it's short but amazing.

https://youtu.be/6LE02qRfh9k?si=qs9hXV7KGa8X_Cfv

Quote from: kingm56 on April 21, 2024, 02:47:11 PMInteresting, because when it comes to DJ, you and Todge feel facts (ie stats) don't tell the whole story.  I guess in this one game, you're willing to make an exception because it fits your narrative.

In fairness Matt, you can't point to that game and say he played well.  Did he make some very good throws?  Yes of course.

Did he have an overall bad game?  Yes.  Why?  Because he got pressured all game.  Pressure makes QBs play worse.

How many sacks were the fault of Mahommes because you said yesterday like QBs affect their sack rate?

Mahommes was not a typical Mahommes that game.  The reason seems clear to me.

Quote from: Philosophers on April 21, 2024, 03:47:28 PMIn fairness Matt, you can't point to that game and say he played well.  Did he make some very good throws?  Yes of course.

Did he have an overall bad game?  Yes.  Why?  Because he got pressured all game.  Pressure makes QBs play worse.

How many sacks were the fault of Mahommes because you said yesterday like QBs affect their sack rate?

Mahommes was not a typical Mahommes that game.  The reason seems clear to me.

I don't believe I said he played well; I said it was clear he was the best player on the field with gifts no other QB has.  I'm also not a fan of deserting a single game to prove, or disprove anything.  I alway prefer to consider the aggregate. 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 21, 2024, 04:24:22 PMI'm also not a fan of deserting a single game to prove, or disprove anything.  I alway prefer to consider the aggregate. 

Completely agreed Matt. And we all know that anytime people repeatedly cling to the same single game or single example over and over to try make a very broad point, their underlying argument is usually false or at least weak. If it were a stronger argument they'd be able to point to many examples instead of bringing the same single one up over and over again, multiple years removed.

Quote from: kingm56 on April 21, 2024, 04:24:22 PMI don't believe I said he played well; I said it was clear he was the best player on the field with gifts no other QB has.  I'm also not a fan of deserting a single game to prove, or disprove anything.  I alway prefer to consider the aggregate. 

No you are right but you did say he would be the same Patrick and he was not that day.  Again it was be ause of the pressure.

Nobody (I think) is arguing that DJ would be Patrick Mahommes in same conditions (OL, WRs, etc).  He is an inferior QB no doubt.  However with good OL and WRs he would play better than he has though far from the elite QBs.

My problem is simply that great QBs play the same regardless of the play of others around them and that simply is not true.  The Burrow example cited in one season is just that, one season.  There have been other great QBs across the years and nobody getting sacked 60+ times in the season is leading the league in passing.

Quote from: Philosophers on April 21, 2024, 05:56:37 PMNo you are right but you did say he would be the same Patrick and he was not that day.  Again it was be ause of the pressure.

Nobody (I think) is arguing that DJ would be Patrick Mahommes in same conditions (OL, WRs, etc).  He is an inferior QB no doubt.  However with good OL and WRs he would play better than he has though far from the elite QBs.

My problem is simply that great QBs play the same regardless of the play of others around them and that simply is not true.  The Burrow example cited in one season is just that, one season.  There have been other great QBs across the years and nobody getting sacked 60+ times in the season is leading the league in passing.

Regardless of what happens in the draft next week do you think the Giants would be in the playoffs this upcoming season with:

Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Goff
Prescott
Tua
Stroud
Purdy

I just listed those guys because they all statically finished in the top 6-8 last season.

Quote from: kingm56 on April 21, 2024, 02:47:11 PMInteresting, because when it comes to DJ, you and Todge feel facts (ie stats) don't tell the whole story.  I guess in this one game, you're willing to make an exception because it fits your narrative.

Wow, what a weak response.  Just take the L.  And I don't know what facts I overlook.  The fact that DJ has never played behind a top half OL?  The fact that he has never played with top half WRs?  The fact that in his first 3 years he had a poor development environment? 

This is not to take away anything that Patrick Mahomes has done, as he is an excellent QB.

I just wanted to share the Chiefs rankings of their offensive line that he's played behind since entering the league.

They are the following.

- 2017 ranked 16th
- 2018 ranked 13th
- 2019 ranked 16th
- 2020 ranked 11th
- 2021 ranked 5th
- 2022 ranked 9th

Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 21, 2024, 06:58:16 PMRegardless of what happens in the draft next week do you think the Giants would be in the playoffs this upcoming season with:

Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Goff
Prescott
Tua
Stroud
Purdy

I just listed those guys because they all statically finished in the top 6-8 last season.

Nope.  No QB will get the Giants into playoffs without help in other positions.  A great QB may win a couple more games but I think that's it.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 21, 2024, 08:55:07 PMWow, what a weak response.  Just take the L.  And I don't know what facts I overlook.  The fact that DJ has never played behind a top half OL?  The fact that he has never played with top half WRs?  The fact that in his first 3 years he had a poor development environment? 

Oh, so Yards, TDs and Ints are good enough to judge Mahomes for ONE game, but not good enough to accurately assess DJ over 60 games...got it.

For the third time now, I never stated Mahomes had a great, or even good, game; in point of fact, I stated "I simply don't know how any fan could watch that game and not be an awe of Patrick Mahomes"; he demonstrated "unique skills" in that game no other QB could, or has, duplicated. The 20+ yard laser rope (while falling back) to Kelce on 3 and 8 (dropped), and the throw from a completely horizontal position (dropped) were unlike any plays I've ever seen.  He is a physically gifted human with a VERY unique skillset, which was on display in that SB, independent of the pressures.  As I explicitly stated, "you can't hide his type of talent", which was, and still is, my point.   I never viewed DJ as having any unique QB attributes, independent of his poor supporting cast.  In short, I'm never in awe of him...

Fundamentally, I object to using data, from a single game, in a vacuum, to derive any conclusion.  I could easily point to Burrows' 2022 playoff performance where Cinci set NFL Playoff records for pressures and sacks allowed.  In the divisional round, Burrow was sacked 9 times (NFL record), and under pressure for more than 50% of passing downs; yet, he went 28 of 37 for 348 yards.  I could also use Eli's playoff performance against SF, where he was sacked 6x and under pressure all day, in the rain; he still delivered a robust stat line, and delivered a few wow throws.  It's funny these performances (and others) are never mentioned when discussing the OLs impact on QBs.  It's always this Mahomes SB performance; again, one game, in a vacuum; forget the fact Mahomes got them to the SB with said crappy oline...

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 21, 2024, 09:22:20 PMThis is not to take away anything that Patrick Mahomes has done, as he is an excellent QB.

I just wanted to share the Chiefs rankings of their offensive line that he's played behind since entering the league.

They are the following.

- 2017 ranked 16th
- 2018 ranked 13th
- 2019 ranked 16th
- 2020 ranked 11th
- 2021 ranked 5th
- 2022 ranked 9th

I forgot to add the chiefs 2023 offensive line ranking which was 5th.

So for the past four years Mahomes has played behind a top ten offensive line, sometimes top five.

Combined with having possibly the best offensive coach in the league Andy Reid.

Nice combination, just wanted to share

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 02:33:18 PMSo we were the 30th last year? Maybe I'm not remembering right, but I had thought the claim made by some here was that the line began to suddenly play much better once Jones went down, allowing the journeyman backup and undrafted rookie third string QB to perform better than Jones did.

If it was indeed the case that Tyrod and DeVito enjoyed better O line play than Jones, how did the line still ultimately only finish 3rd from the bottom of the league?

they got thomas back and got some continuity, same guys playing week in week out. did jones have a two games with the same line at any point last year?

Quote from: Philosophers on April 21, 2024, 10:17:02 PMNope.  No QB will get the Giants into playoffs without help in other positions.  A great QB may win a couple more games but I think that's it.

there is help though, we used all this offseason to fortify the oline and Wandale, Slayton, and Hyatt are good pieces including Bellinger that have been used improperly.

I think Half that list if not more immediately make us a playoff team

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 22, 2024, 03:48:15 AMI forgot to add the chiefs 2023 offensive line ranking which was 5th.

So for the past four years Mahomes has played behind a top ten offensive line, sometimes top five.

Combined with having possibly the best offensive coach in the league Andy Reid.

Nice combination, just wanted to share

Like you, I think Andy Reid is an exceptional coach; however, I firmly believe fans assign too much credit to coaches for players' successes, especially QBs.

Reid's record when paired with High-First Round/Pro Bowl QBs: 265-126-1
Reid's record when paired with aging (e.g. Vick) vets and/or none-high 1st round picks(e.g. Scott Peterson, Nick Foles, and Detmer) 18-34

Another great coach, Bill Belichick has a similar record:

Belichick's record with Tom Brady :    249 – 75
Belichick's record without Brady:    84 -  103

Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB.  Andy Reid absolutely gets some credit; however, I reject the notion that Mahomes' success is predicated on Reid; as history clearly indicates, successful QBs remain so, even after their HCs and/or OCs move on.  However, HC/OC are rarely (really never) successful without their Top-Tier QBs.  Just ask our OC and HC how life is without Allen; yet, the latter seems to be just fine without either. This notion extends to Andy Reid.  Just looking at his record, you can easily spot the years without a quality QB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ReidAn0.htm

Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 22, 2024, 08:09:53 AMthere is help though, we used all this offseason to fortify the oline and Wandale, Slayton, and Hyatt are good pieces including Bellinger that have been used improperly.

I think Half that list if not more immediately make us a playoff team

The Giants made the playoff in 2022 with DJ as their QB with similar talent (maybe less?) to this season.  Yet, we don't believe the greatest QB to lace-them-up is capable of the same outcome? Today, 44% of all NFL teams make the playoffs; getting arguably the best QB ever puts you in that percentile. 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 22, 2024, 08:17:34 AMThe Giants made the playoff in 2022 with DJ as their QB with similar talent (maybe less?) to this season.  Yet, we don't believe the greatest QB to lace-them-up is capable of the same outcome? Today, 44% of all NFL teams make the playoffs; getting arguably the best QB ever puts you in that percentile. 

Matt - the reason I question that is because the 2023 team was much worse across the board than the 2022 team and that another QB would be starting with the 2023 team.

Quote from: Philosophers on April 22, 2024, 10:37:20 AMMatt - the reason I question that is because the 2023 team was much worse across the board than the 2022 team and that another QB would be starting with the 2023 team.

Joe, I get your perspective, my friend.  However, I actually like our talent a little better than 2022; I think defensively we've made some gains.  I do get your trepidation though, Joe.  With a few lucky breaks/draft picks, we could become the 2023 version of Houston

Quote from: kingm56 on April 22, 2024, 08:11:00 AMLike you, I think Andy Reid is an exceptional coach; however, I firmly believe fans assign too much credit to coaches for players' successes, especially QBs.

Reid's record when paired with High-First Round/Pro Bowl QBs: 265-126-1
Reid's record when paired with aging (e.g. Vick) vets and/or none-high 1st round picks(e.g. Scott Peterson, Nick Foles, and Detmer) 18-34

Another great coach, Bill Belichick has a similar record:

Belichick's record with Tom Brady :    249 – 75
Belichick's record without Brady:    84 -  103

Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB.  Andy Reid absolutely gets some credit; however, I reject the notion that Mahomes' success is predicated on Reid; as history clearly indicates, successful QBs remain so, even after their HCs and/or OCs move on.  However, HC/OC are rarely (really never) successful without their Top-Tier QBs.  Just ask our OC and HC how life is without Allen; yet, the latter seems to be just fine without either. This notion extends to Andy Reid.  Just looking at his record, you can easily spot the years without a quality QB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ReidAn0.htm

King,

I appreciate your time spent at researching a subject, and your attempts here to promote the conclusion that you have come to. However, there were a number of statements that you made, that were pretty bold, and technically not sound.

I have highlighted several of them up above.

The one that I would like to specifically address is this one that you said "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

King, we have to be careful in making absolute statements, because that can lead a person or a group of people to come to a faulty line of reasoning.

How so?

Let me elucidate.

A coach who would challenge your statement is none other than Jim Harbaugh.

The QB who's metrics would factually show you have come to an incorrect conclusion is none other than Alex Smith.

I have the following stats and facts to show that.

Alex Smith was the #1 pick in 2005, and from 2005-2010 Smith's head coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary respectively.

He was technically considered a bust, but guess what happened a few years later?

Jim Harbaugh was hired as the 49ers head coach, and guess what happened to Alex Smith's stats? They improved and the 49ers made the NFC Championship game!

Here are Alex Smith's stats in 2011.

61% 3144 Yards 17 TD 5 Int 90.7 RTG

His completion percentage, yardage, TD to Int ratio, RTG and QBR all improved under the tutelage of Harbaugh.

So King, by these statistics and facts, the coach and system were more important to the QB, than the QB was to the system.

Alex Smith never thrived under Nolan and Singletary, but he blossomed under Harbaugh.

It gets even better, because Alex Smith thrives even more a few years later under the tutelage of guess who? None other than Andy Reid.

You can look up the stats yourself as I have presented them down below.

Please be well and we will talk later

Alex Smith (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/8416/alex-smith)

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 22, 2024, 08:14:01 PMKing,

I appreciate your time spent at researching a subject, and your attempts here to promote the conclusion that you have come to. However, there were a number of statements that you made, that were pretty bold, and technically not sound.

I have highlighted several of them up above.

The one that I would like to specifically address is this one that you said "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

King, we have to be careful in making absolute statements, because that can lead a person or a group of people to come to a faulty line of reasoning.

How so?

Let me elucidate.

A coach who would challenge your statement is none other than Jim Harbaugh.

The QB who's metrics would factually show you have come to an incorrect conclusion is none other than Alex Smith.

I have the following stats and facts to show that.

Alex Smith was the #1 pick in 2005, and from 2005-2010 Smith's head coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary respectively.

He was technically considered a bust, but guess what happened a few years later?

Jim Harbaugh was hired as the 49ers head coach, and guess what happened to Alex Smith's stats? They improved and the 49ers made the NFC Championship game!

Here are Alex Smith's stats in 2011.

61% 3144 Yards 17 TD 5 Int 90.7 RTG

His completion percentage, yardage, TD to Int ratio, RTG and QBR all improved under the tutelage of Harbaugh.

So King, by these statistics and facts, the coach and system were more important to the QB, than the QB was to the system.

Alex Smith never thrived under Nolan and Singletary, but he blossomed under Harbaugh.

It gets even better, because Alex Smith thrives even more a few years later under the tutelage of guess who? None other than Andy Reid.

You can look up the stats yourself as I have presented them down below.

Please be well and we will talk later

Alex Smith (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/8416/alex-smith)

Harbaugh shipped him away after a year and a half. The 2011 season you referenced Alex Smith averaged 196 yards and a little over a Td a game. I would hardly call that blossoming,the following year in 2012 under Harbaugh he averaged even less at 176 yards a game for the 10 he played. After that year and a half Harbaugh traded him away to make room for kapernick. He played 14 seasons only producing over 4,000 yards one time.

A qb averaging 2,546 yards a season and 14 Tds is below average.

Bricillo provides some sort of hope, but at this point, the OL situation defies logic. Multiple schemes, coaches, coordinators, play callers & GMs. Even with a great LT they are still scary bad. That almost doesn't make sense. Part of me thinks we sold our souls for those Super Bowls.

In any event, I'll play it straight and say Neal and Schmitz are the swing states. You can go from bad to good quickly in the NFL. If those 2 guys live up to their draft status, the Giants will have an excellent OL.

Thomas
Runyan
Schmitz
Eleumunor
Neal

Those are all Schoen's guys. This is on him now.

Quote from: kingm56 on April 22, 2024, 10:45:12 AMJoe, I get your perspective, my friend.  However, I actually like our talent a little better than 2022; I think defensively we've made some gains.  I do get your trepidation though, Joe.  With a few lucky breaks/draft picks, we could become the 2023 version of Houston

Matt - I swear I have PTSD from the Dallas opening game where Evan Neal looked like he was throwing the game. Never have I seen a team less prepared.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 22, 2024, 08:49:26 PMHarbaugh shipped him away after a year and a half. The 2011 season you referenced Alex Smith averaged 196 yards and a little over a Td a game. I would hardly call that blossoming,the following year in 2012 under Harbaugh he averaged even less at 176 yards a game for the 10 he played. After that year and a half Harbaugh traded him away to make room for kapernick. He played 14 seasons only producing over 4,000 yards one time.

A qb averaging 2,546 yards a season and 14 Tds is below average.

Hi,

Here was the original argument and claim made "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

Alex Smith's prior coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary.

During that time, he had a 51 TD to 53 Int ratio which is atrocious, and a 67.28 RTG.

When Jim Harbaugh came on Alex Smith's TD to Int rate jumped over a two-year period to 30 TD to 10 Int, a 2 to 1 ratio, and a 97.4 RTG.

Then in the latter part of my original statement I referenced the coaching of Andy Reid on Alex Smith for five years and gave the link for his stats for everyone to look at which would also include yourself.

Cherry picking certain stats to fit a narrative is a logical fallacy which you have done. So, in order to get the correct and honest answers we need to look at all the data.

Here are Alex Smith's stats under the five years of Andy Reid without cherry picking them, they are:

Years 2013 - 2017
17,606 Yards
65.16%
102 TD / 33 Int
94.76 RTG

So here is my question for you and I would like you to answer it honestly.

Did the coaching of Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid make Alex Smith a better QB compared to the coaching of Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

 

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 22, 2024, 10:53:09 PMHi,

Here was the original argument and claim made "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

Alex Smith's prior coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary.

During that time, he had a 51 TD to 53 Int ratio which is atrocious, and a 67.28 RTG.

When Jim Harbaugh came on Alex Smith's TD to Int rate jumped over a two-year period to 30 TD to 10 Int, a 2 to 1 ratio, and a 97.4 RTG.

Then in the latter part of my original statement I referenced the coaching of Andy Reid on Alex Smith for five years and gave the link for his stats for everyone to look at which would also include yourself.

Cherry picking certain stats to fit a narrative is a logical fallacy which you have done. So, in order to get the correct and honest answers we need to look at all the data.

Here are Alex Smith's stats under the five years of Andy Reid without cherry picking them, they are:

Years 2013 - 2017
17,606 Yards
65.16%
102 TD / 33 Int
94.76 RTG

So here is my question for you and I would like you to answer it honestly.

Did the coaching of Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid make Alex Smith a better QB compared to the coaching of Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

Once again, you find one example to support a preconceived notion, while simultaneously ignoring the preponderance of evidence that suggest the opposite.   I continue to encourage to consider a macro perspective. In this situation you concluded Smith improvement must be a byproduct of coaching. Someone who ask questions from a macro perspective may ask if other possibilities exist, and look for other explanations.

To directly answer your question NO  – Harbaugh and Reid did not fundamentally alter Smith's trajectory.  I suspect this is evident by the fact BOTH coaches essentially fired Smith, which resulted in both teams making the SB the very next season.  If anything, Smith should serve as a warning, not a an example.

You're also viewing Smith stats in a complete vacuum.  As I clearly said above, injuries are the biggest factor in QB output, which is why I provided 17-game averages (min of 8 starts).  Of course Smith aggregate numbers were better post 2011; he only averaged 10 starts per year.  It doesn't take a scholar to conclude a QB that plays 16 games will have better numbers than a QB that plays 10. Smith biggest issue his first 6 years were injuries; he suffered 5 significant injuries during that span, including a back injury that landed him on IR.

You also failed account for the early 2010(s) rules changes, which objectively made playing QB much easier.  QB output dramatically increased after the true elimination/enforcement of DB contact beyond 5-yards, incorporation of defenseless WR rules, multiple rules to protect the QB, and rules to improve overall safety in response to CRT/concussion concerns.  It's a fact that after said rule changes, QBs (on average) throw for more yards, more TDs, and have higher ratings.  I have run a complete analysis on the impact of these changes and have discussed it plenty of times on this board.  I still believe there's a significant faction of fans that fail to grasp how these changes fundamentally changed the game, especially the QB and WR positions. 

In the 6-years prior to the aforementioned rule changes, Eli produced the following yearly averages:

3600 Yards 25 TDs 18 Ints 81 RTG

In the 6-years following the rule changes:
4261 Yards 27 TDs 17 Ints  87 RTG

* I did not include Eli's first 2 years to avoid skewing the data to my favor

Even Payton Manning, a well-established AP QB enjoyed a massive bump in his aggregate numbers following said rule changes:

11 Years Prior to rule change
4217 Yards 30 TDs 15 Ints  95 RTG

3 Years Post rule changes
4954 Yards 43 TDs 12 Ints  107 RTG

*Rookie year omitted to avoid skewing data to my favor
*injured in 2011
*The higher performing years occurred after his injury, and when his physical demise was evident.

Tom Brady, another AP QB greatly benefited from the early 2010 rule changes

9  Years Prior to rule change
3851 Yards 29 TDs 12 Ints  95 RTG

11 Years Post rule changes
4920 Yards 40 TDs 11 Ints  103 RTG

*Rookie year omitted to avoid skewing data to my favor
*Omitted 2008 due to injury
*2021 and 2022 adjusted to 16 vice 17 game average
*The higher performing years occurred when his physical demise was evident.

For the 4th example, consider Drew Brees:

7  Years Prior to rule change
4236 Yards 29 TDs 14 Ints  96 RTG

8 Years Post rule changes
4896 Yards 36 TDs 12 Ints  104 RTG

*1st 3 years omitted to avoid skewing data to my favor
*last 2 years omitted


As I stated above, I spent a lot of time analyzing how these rule changes fundamentally changed the game.  If you conduct a similar analysis, you'll discover virtually every established QB enjoyed tangible improvements from 2011 on, even the greats. 

How do you explain these dramatic jumps? Let me ask you some questions:

1.   Do you believe these well-established PB/AP QBs finally figured it out in the latter halves of the careers?
2.   Do you believe these QBs benefited from the great systems implemented bu Ben Macaddo, Adam Case and Josh McDaniel?
3.   Is it more likely the answers to 1 and 2 are No, and the increases are a byproduct of the aforementioned rule changes?

To further illustrate how these rule changes benefited QBs, and allowed for higher statistical output, consider the following:

9 of the top 12 NFL All-Time passing leaders significant portion of their career from 2011 On

1   Tom Brady      89,214   2000-2022   2TM
2   Drew Brees      80,358   2001-2020   2TM
3   Peyton Manning+   71,940   1998-2015   2TM
5   Ben Roethlisberger   64,088   2004-2021   pit
6   Philip Rivers      63,440   2004-2020   2TM
7   Matt Ryan      62,792   2008-2022   2TM
9   Aaron Rodgers      59,055   2005-2023   2TM
10   Eli Manning      57,023   2004-2019   nyg
11   Matthew Stafford   56,047   2009-2023   2TM

Patrick Mahomes is currently averaging 4737 passing yards per season; if he continues with this average, he will break the top 10 in just 10 full seasons; Goff will enter the top 10 in just 6 more seasons.  Dak Prescott is currently number 57 All-Time with 29,459 yards (just 7 seasons), and will enter the top 10 in just 6 more seasons. 

10 of the top 13 NFL All-Time TD leaders played a significant portion of their career from 2011+

1   Tom Brady   649   2000-2022   2TM
2   Drew Brees   571   2001-2020   2TM
3   Peyton Manning+   539   1998-2015   2TM
5   Aaron Rodgers   475   2005-2023   2TM
6   Philip Rivers   421   2004-2020   2TM
8   Ben Roethlisberger   418   2004-2021   pit
9   Matt Ryan   381   2008-2022   2TM
10   Eli Manning   366   2004-2019   nyg
11   Matthew Stafford   357   2009-2023   2TM
13   Russell Wilson   334   2012-2023   2

12 of the 13 NFL All-time QB Rating Leaders played a significant portion of their careers form 2011+; 10 of 13 are current players

1   Aaron Rodgers   103.6   2005-2023   2TM
2   Patrick Mahomes   103.5   2017-2023   kan
3   Deshaun Watson   100.8   2017-2023   2TM
4   Russell Wilson   100.0   2012-2023   2TM
5   Dak Prescott   99.0   2016-2023   dal
6   Drew Brees   98.7   2001-2020   2TM
7   Joe Burrow   98.6   2020-2023   cin
8   Kirk Cousins   98.2   2012-2023   2TM
9   Lamar Jackson   98.0   2018-2023   rav
10   Jimmy Garoppolo   97.6   2014-2023   3TM
11   Tom Brady   97.2   2000-2022   2TM
12    Tua Tagovailoa   97.1   2020-2023   mi

BL: As stated before, the HC does make a difference; however, it's vastly overstated.  Alex Smith, like virtually every other QB, benefited greatly from monumental rule changes and good health.  It's not a consequence his improvement coincides with said rule changes and a period where he remained injury free in 8 of 9 seasons. You failed to give any consideration to the latter, which was the impetus for his poor start.  Of the hundreds of other QBs, do you have a single example from the last decade to support your notion?  Alex Smith is not a very good example, for the reasons stated above. 


BTW, can you imagine if Manning or Brady played their entire careers post 2011.  Oh my...

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 22, 2024, 10:53:09 PMHi,

Here was the original argument and claim made "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

Alex Smith's prior coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary.

During that time, he had a 51 TD to 53 Int ratio which is atrocious, and a 67.28 RTG.

When Jim Harbaugh came on Alex Smith's TD to Int rate jumped over a two-year period to 30 TD to 10 Int, a 2 to 1 ratio, and a 97.4 RTG.

Then in the latter part of my original statement I referenced the coaching of Andy Reid on Alex Smith for five years and gave the link for his stats for everyone to look at which would also include yourself.

Cherry picking certain stats to fit a narrative is a logical fallacy which you have done. So, in order to get the correct and honest answers we need to look at all the data.

Here are Alex Smith's stats under the five years of Andy Reid without cherry picking them, they are:

Years 2013 - 2017
17,606 Yards
65.16%
102 TD / 33 Int
94.76 RTG

So here is my question for you and I would like you to answer it honestly.

Did the coaching of Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid make Alex Smith a better QB compared to the coaching of Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

 

huh? You cherry picked stats not me i gave you his career averages but No, Alex Smith for the entirety was Alex Smith. He was good for 3100 yards and 15tds in every season that he played a full season. As king pointed out he only played 1 full season under Nolan or Singletary so how do you know it was Harbaugh and not just him being healthy for the 1st time for an entire season. The answer is you don't know. Alex Smith was healthy for his time with the Chiefs so it's pretty to easy to assume he would have duplicated those stats with the 49ers if he had been healthy.