The short answer is quickly, or never.
A few years ago, I ran a statistical analysis of every skilled position; my intent was to determine when you could expect a player, at a given position, to emerge. My thesis was the notion it takes 3-to-5 years to judge a player is outdated and inaccurate. During that effort, I realized WRs, more than any other skilled position, emerge quickly and have a fairly predictable output.. The data suggest Nabers will adapt quickly, or not at all. Below is list of all the 1st rd WR(s) drafted between 2016 and 2021; as I'm sure you'll note, they produce quickly and remain statistically consistent, unless impacted by injuries and/or suspension. In lieu of a boring analysis, here are two general observations.
1. The preponderance of 1st Round WRs show their abilities in their rookie seasons
2. 100% of 1st Round WRs showcase their abilities by year 2, or not at all.
a. At this point, they're production is fairly steady
Ja'Marr Chase (Pick 5):
2021* CIN 17 81 1455 18 13 AP ORoY-1, AP2, PB
2022* CIN 12 87 1046 12 9 PB
2023* CIN 16 100 1216 12.2 7 PB
Jaylen Waddle (Pick 6):
2021 MIA 16 104 1015 9.8 6
2022 MIA 17 75 1356 18.1 8
2023 MIA 14 72 1014 14.1 4
DeVonta Smith (Pick 10):
2021 PHI 17 64 916 14.3 5
2022 PHI 17 95 1196 12.6 7
2023 PHI 16 81 1066 13.2 7
Kadarius Toney (Pick 20):
2021 NYG 10 39 420 10.8 0
2022 2TM 9 16 171 10.7 2
KAN 7 14 171 12.2 2
NYG 2 2 0 0 0
2023 KAN 13 27 169 6.3 1
Rashod Bateman (Pick 27):
21 BAL 12 46 515 11.2 1
2022 BAL 6 15 285 19 2
2023 BAL 16 32 367 11.5 1
Henry Ruggs (Pick 12):
20 LVR 13 26 452 17.4 2
2021 LVR 7 24 469 19.5 2
Jerry Jeudy: (Pick 15)
20 DEN 16 52 856 16.5 3
2021 DEN 10 38 467 12.3 0
2022 DEN 15 67 972 14.5 6
2023 DEN 16 54 758 14 2
CeeDee Lamb (Pick 17):
2020 DAL 16 74 935 12.6 5
2021* DAL 16 79 1102 13.9 6 PB
2022* DAL 17 107 1359 12.7 9 AP2, PB
2023*+ DAL 17 135 1749 13 12
Jalen Reagor (Pick 21):
2020 PHI 11 31 396 12.8 1
2021 PHI 17 33 299 9.1 2
2022 MIN 17 8 104 13 1
2023 NWE 11 7 138 19.7 0
Justin Jefferson (Pick 22):
2020* MIN 16 88 1400 15.9 7 AP ORoY-2, AP2, PB
2021* MIN 17 108 1616 15 10 AP2, PB
2022*+ MIN 17 128 1809 14.1 8 AP MVP-5, AP OPoY-1, AP1, PB
2023 MIN 10 68 1074 15.8 5
Brandon Aiyuk (Pick 25):
2020 SFO 12 60 748 12.5 5
2021 SFO 17 56 826 14.8 5
2022 SFO 17 78 1015 13 8
2023 SFO 16 75 1342 17.9 7
Marquise Brown (Pick 25):
2019 BAL 14 46 584 12.7 7
2020 BAL 16 58 769 13.3 8
2021 BAL 16 91 1008 11.1 6
2022 ARI 12 67 709 10.6 3
2023 ARI 14 51 574 11.3 4
N'Keal Harry (Pick 32):
2019 NWE 7 12 105 8.8 2
2020 NWE 14 33 309 9.4 2
2021 NWE 12 12 184 15.3 0
2022 CHI 7 7 116 16.6 1
2023 MIN 9 0
D.J. Moore (Pick 24):
2018 CAR 16 55 788 14.3 2
2019 CAR 15 87 1175 13.5 4
2020 CAR 15 66 1193 18.1 4
2021 CAR 17 93 1157 12.4 4
2022 CAR 17 63 888 14.1 7
2023 CHI 17 96 1364 14.2 8
Calvin Ridley (Pick 26):
2018 ATL 16 64 821 12.8 10
2019 ATL 13 63 866 13.7 7
2020 ATL 15 90 1374 15.3 9 AP2
2021 ATL 5 31 281 9.1 2
2023 JAX 17 76 1016 13.4 8
Corey Davis (Pick 5):
2017 TEN 11 34 375 11 0
2018 TEN 16 65 891 13.7 4
2019 TEN 15 43 601 14 2
2020 TEN 14 65 984 15.1 5
2021 NYJ 9 34 492 14.5 4
2022 NYJ 13 32 536 16.8 2
John Ross (Pick 9):
2017 CIN 3 0 0 0
2018 CIN 13 21 210 10 7
2019 CIN 8 28 506 18.1 3
2020 CIN 3 2 17 8.5 0
2021 NYG 10 11 224 20.4 1
Corey Coleman (Pick 15):
2016 CLE 10 33 413 12.5 3
2017 CLE 9 23 305 13.3 2
2018 NYG 8 5 71 14.2 0
Will Fuller (Pick 21):
2016 HOU 14 47 635 13.5 2
2017 HOU 10 28 423 15.1 7
2018 HOU 7 32 503 15.7 4
2019 HOU 11 49 670 13.7 3
2020 HOU 11 53 879 16.6 8
2021 MIA 2 4 26 6.5 0
Josh Doctson (Pick 22):
2016 WAS 2 2 66 33 0
2017 WAS 16 35 502 14.3 6
2018 WAS 15 44 532 12.1 2
2019 MIN 1 0
Laquon Treadwell (Pick 23):
2016 MIN 9 1 15 15 0
2017 MIN 16 20 200 10 0
2018 MIN 15 35 302 8.6 1
2019 MIN 13 9 184 20.4 1
2020 ATL 5 6 49 8.2 2
2021 JAX 12 33 434 13.2 1
2022 SEA 6 6 42 7 0
2023 BAL 5 1 16 16 0
king: Sadly I agree. That's the main reason why the "bust" rate for drafting 1st-round WR's is so darn high.
It's more dangerous to take a shot at a WR in the draft than QB... and taking a 1st-round QB is very dangerous.
Here's hoping it works out for Schoen and Daboll.
Bob
Well said, Bob. I have high hopes for this pick! I hope you're well.
Quote from: kingm56 on April 26, 2024, 10:09:53 AMWell said, Bob. I have high hopes for this pick! I hope you're well.
I was intrigued by Brook's and Jeremiah's small study suggesting top 10 WRs have a superior hit rate to the rest of round one. Matt, any chance you can add when each prospect was drafted to your data?
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 26, 2024, 10:12:05 AMI was intrigued by Brook's and Jeremiah's small study suggesting top 10 WRs have a superior hit rate to the rest of round one. Matt, any chance you can add when each prospect was drafted to your data?
Rich: Yes, I should have at least mentioned that high 1st-rounders have a better success rate. Bob
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 26, 2024, 10:12:05 AMI was intrigued by Brook's and Jeremiah's small study suggesting top 10 WRs have a superior hit rate to the rest of round one. Matt, any chance you can add when each prospect was drafted to your data?
Rich,
If you include 2022 and 2023 drafts, WR(s) picked in the top 10 have been 100% productive; all have at least 900+ yards in their rookie seasons.
Drake London
Garrett Wilson
Ja'Marr Chase
Jaylen Waddle
DeVonta Smith
You have to go all the way back to 2017 to find a WR drafted in the top 10 who's production failed to live up to their draft position; regardless, Corey Davis had a productive career with Tenn and NYJ. Of the WRs draft in the Top 10 over the last decade, only John Ross could be considered an outright bust.
I suspect this entered into the Giants calculus; they simply couldn't afford to miss on another top 10 pick...Nabers may have been the safest pick in the draft.
BTW, Chris Olave drafted #11, is also a highly productive season. In short, that's 6/6 for top 11 Wrs draft since 2017 (8 years), suggesting study is accurate.
Just off the top of my head Amani Toomer didn't emerge until his 3rd year in the league, however that was twenty years ago.
I personally think Nabers should blossom right out of the gate, or within the first six weeks of the season.
Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 26, 2024, 11:03:11 AMJust off the top of my head Amani Toomer didn't emerge until his 3rd year in the league, however that was twenty years ago.
I personally think Nabers should blossom right out of the gate, or within the first six weeks of the season.
sdx: A great point. It's actually IMO the difference between taking Nabers over Odunze. The former (as stated in another thread by someone) is likely to hit the ground running if he's ever going to hit at all. Odunze IMO is a lot like Toomer and it wouldn't surprise me if it takes him a while to grow into the NFL or if it takes his QB a while to learn that he really CAN be trusted (as his QB did in college). He doesn't get "wide open" often. You just have to throw him the damn ball and let him fight for it. I think his bust likelihood is the lowest of all three top WR's this year, but his ceiling is significantly lower than Nabers' and Harrison's. Bob
Just as quickly as OBJ, Jefferson and Chase.
Cheers!
I invite you to look at the best receiver in the SEC over the last 10 years and look at his track to production and success in the NFL. It is pretty close to "can't miss." You may also notice something interesting if you look at the top 3 lines on each list.
Yards
Player Yds Year School
1 Malik Nabers*1569 2023 Louisiana State
1 Jalin Hyatt* 1267 2022 Tennessee
1 Jameson Williams* 1572 2021 Alabama
1 DeVonta Smith* 1856 2020 Alabama
1 Ja'Marr Chase* 1780 2019 Louisiana State
1 A.J. Brown 1320 2018 Mississippi
1 A.J. Brown 1252 2017 Mississippi
1 Josh Reynolds* 1039 2016 Texas A&M
1 Laquon Treadwell* 1153 2015 Mississippi
1 Amari Cooper* 1727 2014 Alabama
Receptions
Rk Player Rec Year School
1 Malik Nabers* 89 2023 Louisiana State
1 Malik Nabers* 72 2022 Louisiana State
1 Makai Polk* 105 2021 Mississippi State (Wan'dale Robinson finished with 104)
1 DeVonta Smith* 117 2020 Alabama
1 Justin Jefferson* 111 2019 Louisiana State
1 Kalija Lipscomb* 87 2018 Vanderbilt
1 Ryan Davis* 84 2017 Auburn
1 Christian Kirk* 83 2016 Texas A&M
1 Calvin Ridley* 89 2015 Alabama
1 Amari Cooper* 124 2014 Alabama
Quote from: bamagiantfan on April 26, 2024, 01:15:02 PMI invite you to look at the best receiver in the SEC over the last 10 years and look at his track to production and success in the NFL. It is pretty close to "can't miss." You may also notice something interesting if you look at the top 3 lines on each list.
Yards
Player Yds Year School
1 Malik Nabers*1569 2023 Louisiana State
1 Jalin Hyatt* 1267 2022 Tennessee
1 Jameson Williams* 1572 2021 Alabama
1 DeVonta Smith* 1856 2020 Alabama
1 Ja'Marr Chase* 1780 2019 Louisiana State
1 A.J. Brown 1320 2018 Mississippi
1 A.J. Brown 1252 2017 Mississippi
1 Josh Reynolds* 1039 2016 Texas A&M
1 Laquon Treadwell* 1153 2015 Mississippi
1 Amari Cooper* 1727 2014 Alabama
Receptions
Rk Player Rec Year School
1 Malik Nabers* 89 2023 Louisiana State
1 Malik Nabers* 72 2022 Louisiana State
1 Makai Polk* 105 2021 Mississippi State (Wan'dale Robinson finished with 104)
1 DeVonta Smith* 117 2020 Alabama
1 Justin Jefferson* 111 2019 Louisiana State
1 Kalija Lipscomb* 87 2018 Vanderbilt
1 Ryan Davis* 84 2017 Auburn
1 Christian Kirk* 83 2016 Texas A&M
1 Calvin Ridley* 89 2015 Alabama
1 Amari Cooper* 124 2014 Alabama
Really great input!
Quote from: kingm56 on April 26, 2024, 01:29:22 PMReally great input!
king: I never fail to read his posts and highly recommend them. They are IMO too few and far between. Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 26, 2024, 01:40:13 PMking: I never fail to read his posts and highly recommend them. They are IMO too few and far between. Bob
I agree, Bob. I also don't get enough of dumpster Dan.
Quote from: kingm56 on April 26, 2024, 01:45:19 PMI agree, Bob. I also don't get enough of dumpster Dan.
king: Thanks for reminding me. Haven't heard from him recently.
@LennG or
@T200 or anyone else... have you? Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 26, 2024, 01:49:21 PMking: Thanks for reminding me. Haven't heard from him recently. @LennG or @T200 or anyone else... have you? Bob
I have not. He hasn't been on since early March.
Quote from: T200 on April 26, 2024, 01:55:29 PMI have not. He hasn't been on since early March.
Has Slugs/Paul been around? I hope Dan is well...he's a class act.
Quote from: kingm56 on April 26, 2024, 02:25:59 PMHas Slugs/Paul been around? I hope Dan is well...he's a class act.
Not since the end of March.
Hopefully the turnstile OL days are over like in this short clip but imagine Daniel throwing this or a similar route to Nabers instead of Slayton....
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 26, 2024, 01:40:13 PMking: I never fail to read his posts and highly recommend them. They are IMO too few and far between. Bob
You are too kind. :happy: