Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 12:21:06 PMWhy didn't they let Burns hit FA?  They could have paid him that big contract just like Williams.  The team went 6-11 this year, and started 2-8 rather than 1-7.  So because the Giants did it midseason rather than post-season that somehow makes the deal better?  Even though the team stunk both years?  Would the Burns trade have been worse if they made it when they were 2-8? Or the Williams trade better if it was just before he became a UFA?

What makes Burns "an elite pass rusher"  He was not even in the top 25 for sacks last year, he wasn't even close. He had 8 sacks last year, good to tie him for 40th best in the NFL.  The same amount as household names DJ Wonnum and Malcom Koonce.   

As for Williams being nothing special, I would very much make that argument for Burns who has averaged 9 sacks a season for 5 years and grades out as a below average run defender.  He has had over 10 sacks in a season once in 5 years.  Williams didn't have as many sacks, but his run defense was a lot better than that for the Jets.

Weren't two of the 3 games they won in that streak against Washington and NE?  Not exactly murderers row on the schedule there.

Sure hope you are right that this team is that close to competing.  I doubt it will be in 2024.  Even if they draft the next Patrick Mahomes I doubt the offense will be very good in that QBs rookie season.  You seem to have a lot of confidence in this team being good soon but I don't know where that comes from.  The current FO hasn't drafted anyone that jumped off the page as great in their first two years.  Maybe Banks will be that guy.  Thibodeaux did better last year, but hasn't lived up to where most had hope his level of play would be. The FA's that have been signed haven't been very good.

 The QB you seem to think that is going to lift the team needs to last to the 6th pick with at least 3 QB needy teams drafting in front of the Giants.  The current starter is coming off an ACL and his legs have been more a part of his game than his arm, the backup has been a turnover machine.  Further if they draft that QB at 6, they likely won't get a difference maker at a playmaking position in this draft. 

I would argue its likely:

1) The Giants won't make the playoffs next year and will pick in the top 10 again (only they won't have a high 2nd round pick this year)
2) They already signed Burns to a mega contract that he hasn't earned. (Williams deal made him the 7th highest paid DT, Burns makes him the 2nd highest paid EDGE and he is not the 2nd best EDGE in this league).
3) By the time the Giants are good again, one of these things will happen:  Burns will be a cap casualty, Dex will be a cap casualty or they will not sign Thibodeaux because they have already invested almost 60 million/year in the DL. 

I think any reasonable person could say those things are all very possible.

I wish I had your optimism.

Anything is possible.  But I would be a lot more surprised if those things all happened. And you're not really accounting for the big difference in a mid-season trade vs an off season one.  Yes, you let Williams hit free agency, it's 7 weeks away and by that point he was going to be a free agent no matter who traded for him.  Which they did.  Burns was highly unlikely to make it to free agency.  The Giants got him for so little that you can rest assured another team would have offered something similar and then signed him to this big deal.  Or at the very least franchise tagged him.  The jets made their intentions well known they were not going to franchise tag Williams and why would they?  He was a run stuffing DT with litle in the way of pass rushing skills at that time.

Burns is certainly an elite pass rusher.  He ranks 12th in Sacks and QB hits since his rookie season he was top 10 in pass rush win rate last season and all of that is without Dexter Lawrence next to him.  If the Rams were willing to give up 2 first round picks for this guy, in the midst of a playoff  run, what does that tell you?  If you're looking for him to be LT then...well...no he's not that.  But look around the league these days.  He's not in the TJ Watt category but he's not far away and he's been doing it on his own.  Now he's got Thibs and Dexy.  So yea you're projecting a bit but that's the nature of this business. Thibs/Dex/Burns should make it a nightmare for opposing offenses.

The QB play the Giants were afforded last year was some of the worst you'll ever see.  Yes, Washington and New England were two of the teams Devito beat (Along with the pretty good Packers by the way) but he shouldn't be good enough to beat any team.  He's, respectfully, atrocious.  That defense dragged him to 3 wins and they just added a very nice piece to it.  Yes they lost McKinney and Adoree Jackson (who was nothing special last year) but otherwise this defense is coming back mostly intact but with Burns added to it.

Giants are pretty clearing planning on winning with defense for at least this season and likely the next couple.  They've got a bunch of young talented players on that side of the ball and if the offense can give them just league average performance that's going to mean a huge lift in the wins column. 

Anything can happen, this is all a gamble and there's risk in every decision.  Could this whole thing blow up?  Sure it could.  But the Williams thing blowing up was more than predictable.  This would be surprising to me if it completely blew up. 

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 10:47:34 AMWhen this trade first happened I couldn't help think of the Olivier Vernon signing because it was a lot of projection off of what people deemed to be his potential as a pass rusher.  The more I think about it, it seems eerily similar to the trading and signing of Leonard Williams.

Can someone tell me why this trade is much different from the Leonard Williams trade?

In principle they are similar in that they traded for a player at the end of a contract that they would need to sign to keep.  The trade capital is a 2nd rounder vs a 3rd and a 5th. 

Other than Williams being an IDL and Burns being a DE, I don't see much difference.  The team stunk in both of the seasons that trade was made, with the exception that Williams was mid-season and Burns post. 

Williams contract was signed for a 3 year deal that made him the 7th highest paid player at his position, Burns is a 5 year deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid player at his position. 

Why does this trade have most people on this forum cheering and the Williams trade had almost everyone booing?  What am I missing?

There are a couple of big differences.  The first being that Leonard Williams was a mid-season trade when he was about to hit free agency if the Giant were so enamored with him, they could have simply given him the same ridiculous contract the eventually gave him anyway, and saved the picks. 

The next is that the Giants were something like 1-7 at the time of the trade.  If they are entering the trade market at that point it SHOULD be to get rid of guys and collect draft picks, not the other way around.  The Burns trade was during the offseason when, presumably, the team at least has hope to be much better than what they were at the time of the Williams trade.  We knew that team stunk out loud, this 2024 team might not especially if they can draft a competent QB.

Another difference is that Williams to that point, had been nothing special.  A solid though not spectacular DT.  It didn't make any sort of sense to make that trade at that time for a player of that level.  Burns has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL from the minute he walked in the door.  This is an elite level pass rusher.  The 2024 Giants are going to be a defense first team, that much is clear, and he's better than pretty much any free agent the Giants could have reasonably acquired on defense. 

The Giants went on a 3-game winning streak with Tommmy Freaking Devito at QB last season.  This is not a team like the Panthers or even the 1-7 Giants from a few years ago that has no real hope of competing any time soon. 

When they made that trade for Williams you knew, well everybody but Gettleman anyway, that the following things were going to happen: 

1) they will not make the playoffs that season and pick again in the top 10 (only now without a high 3rd round pick)
2) they will re-sign Williams to a mega-contract that he hasn't earned because they can't let him walk after making that trade and Williams and his team know they have absolutely all of the leverage
3) by the time the Giants are good again, Williams won't be on the roster.

Anybody could have reasonably predicted those 3 things happening immediately after the deal was announced and that's exactly what happened.  I don't know if the Giants are going to be awful next year or not.  It depends on the QB position because I think the defense is going to be pretty good.  But they have a real shot at being good in 2025 if they can find even average QB play by then.  So Burns absolutely figures into that.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 22, 2024, 10:33:07 AMI like JJ at 6 (if the Giants like him).  I don't like trading up for JJ or any other QB.  This roster has too many holes to give up more draft picks.

I'm with you.  I would prefer not to trade up for any of these QBs.  But I just can't stand another season of Jones without at least the promise of hope.  Jones is just good enough to not get the Giants the #1 pick next year but not good enough to win a championship with and he's going to be starting next year so at least with a rookie on the roster we know it's only one more year of Jones torture.  If they don't draft one now...who knows who long this will go on for.

There's not much reason to re-hash the worst GM in Giants history and perhaps in the sports' history...just rest assured that whatever he would have done the last couple of drafts would have been wrong.  Very Very wrong. 

He'd have been laughed at for doing it.  Mocked the people laughing at him.  And then ultimately be proven to be monumentally and catastrophically wrong. 

I think the Vikings are going to offer up the farm to get into either #4 or #5 to take whichever QB is left knowing that QB isn't getting past 6, and they have the ammo to do it.  If the Giants really love JJ and want to take him, they may have to trade up to prevent the Vikings from getting there first.  That Vikings team is solid from top to bottom except that they don't currently employ a QB of any substance.

They played excellent defense that 3rd period and this despite missing two of their top 4 defensemen.  I wasn't thrilled with their parking the bus effort for most of the period but to their credit they got it done.  Quick stood tall but the defense in front of him to me was the big story.  There were not a ton of high quality chances late in the game despite the fact that they were sitting on a precious 1 goal lead most of that time. 

And oh what a season from Panarin! Another hatty! That's 3 on the season after having I believe 4 in his career coming into this year.

That guy Hellebuyuck is a menace!  Against mere mortals the Rangers would have jumped ahead in that first period but against this freak...not so much.  Not a terrible performance, though the late penalty was a bit of a bummer, but they held their own and created plenty of chances just couldn't get it past that goalie.

After the first two seasons this kid has had they shouldn't need to ask his permission to do anything.  If he can beat out the new guy for RT then that's terrific.  I'm not holding my breath.  And if he can't they should absolutely see if he can be remotely useful as a guard. It'd be tough for him to be worse there than he was at RT or worse than the recent guard play of the Giants in general.

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on March 15, 2024, 01:06:32 PMIn the consensus mock draft of tens of thousands, they have Joe Alt going 5th, Nabors going 6th, Fashanu going 7th, Turner 8th, Odunze 9th, Fuaga 10th, McCarthy 11th https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2024/consensus-mock-draft-2024

If we know anything about previous drafts, pretty much everything we expect goes right out the window on draft day. Shockingly different from the carefully layed out plan suggested by the Gurus of NFLTV and other sources

Was that before or after the Chargers lost their top two WRs though? That's a rather glaring need for them all of a sudden.  Anything is certainly possible but without a trade I don't see how any of the top 5 picks don't end up as a QB or a WR

Quote from: JT39 on March 15, 2024, 11:56:20 AMJones starting this year will be the worst decision this team has made since hiring Gettleman.

Not if they draft a QB at #6.  Run Jones out there and lose a lot.  Let the kid sit and learn.  Kid starts next season fresh with a year's worth of NFL playbook/practice under his belt and the Giants get ready to actually compete with another high draft pick.  They can't cut Jones so they might as well throw him out there. 

The problem with all of this is that teams like the Vikings KNOW the Giants are going to take a QB and are loading up to jump them.  The Giants don't have the ammunition to really compete in that game.  Their best hope is that SD/Arizona become so enamored with WRs that they simply turn down monumental offers (plural) to take MHJ and Nabers/Rome.  It'll be very interesting to see what happens draft day and what offers were out there after the fact if a trade doesn't materialize.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 15, 2024, 09:16:21 AMI would be fine with the Giants drafting WR 3 at the 6th slot and I would be fine with them drafting JJ.  I would also be fine with a trade down as the team now needs more draft picks. 


The only thing I wouldn't be fine with is the team wasting yet more draft capital to trade up.

Given the fact that the QBs in this draft are so highly regarded, the QBs in next year's draft are not, and the top 3 teams all have QB needs of their own...I'm with you.  The price to move up would be astronomical. 

It's fine if you could guarantee you're getting a Mahomes...but even the best prospects (and Williams is very much that) have a chance to bust.  You'd be taking an awfully big gamble to try and get up there and if he's not Mahomes 2.0 the rest of the team is so terrible around him that you're just locked into a lot of losing.

I think they pretty much have to stay where they are and take the best QB or WR that's left.  It's not a great spot to be in but they made their bed by winning pointless games and not trading Barkley/McKinney when they had the chance.

The only other thing I've been pondering about all this is what exactly would the price for Justin Fields be?  I'm not enamored with him persay...but if the price falls all the way to a 3rd or even 4th round pick I think they'd have to consider it. 

Quote from: AYM on March 14, 2024, 11:29:11 PMWhy this is huge for the Giants:

With Arizona trading Rondale Moore, and San Diego losing both WRs, WR is a huge need for both of them, increasing the likelihood that at least one of those big 4 QBs will be there at #6.

And if it's not a QB that Schoen or Daboll like, someone likely will, meaning we could flip the pick.

I don't know that it really impacts the Giants all that much. The first 3 picks are going to be QBs in some order. Arizona and SD are going forward with their QBs so they weren't taking QB4. And everyone knows the Giants will likely take QB4. So unless you think this makes SD less likely to trade that pick this trade does not have much of an impact towards the Giants.

What does seem to be the case is that without a trade this draft should go

QB
QB
QB
WR
WR


Which means the Giants get left with either the 4th QB or the 3rd WR. Not ideal.

Quote from: EliWasrobbed on March 14, 2024, 09:32:34 PMI was reading something about June 1 deadline where his cap hit would go across 2 seasons instead of 1 in the chance we cut him now. I like that idea a lot... why even chance playing him?

It's something like a 70 million dollar cap hit if they cut him this season.  Even split it is insane to cut him this season.  It would be cheaper to keep him and not play him.  Next season it's closer to 30 and they will do it then.

They will not be cutting Jones this season under any circumstances.  They will absolutely be cutting him next year under every circumstance.