- Daniel Jones - The 5th most sacked QB in the NFL

[AZGiantFan]

Some fans prefer to assess players objectively and holistically and look at all the available facts and data. Others prefer to see things only one way, and when anything goes wrong to cast the blame elsewhere. Why the first group gets under the second group's skin is a mystery to me, but it is what it is.

Possibly the certainty that they are objective and therefore right and the other guy is close minded to their wisdom, which can come across as smugness or condescension?  Just a guess.

[MightyGiants]

Possibly an open receivers would help as well.

Time to throw is perhaps the most misused stat when it comes to trying to blame the QB for sacks.   If you dig into the stat and the nuances involved, you can see just how poor it is.

1)  The design of play-  plays can be designed to get the ball out quickly, or they could require the QB to hold on to the ball longer

2)  Pressure-  This one may seem odd, but it's a thing.  When QBs are forced to scramble and then throw, they add seconds to that throw pushing up the time to throw number.  Similarly, plays that have designed roll-outs will similarly increase the TT number

3) The quality of the receiving targets.  If one QB is constantly having to work to number 3 target or check down, while another QB has top-end receivers that get open (allowing them to throw to number one in the progress), you will see the TT number less for QBs with better receiving targets.

4) Quarterback processing and decision-making-  This also can play a part in the TT.  The quicker a QB processes and the better they make their decisions will speed up the process.

So as you can see, the QB can be partly (possibly mostly) responsible, or they could not be responsible.  However, you need to consider the times the QB rolls out, the times the QB scrambles and throws, the play design, the quality of the targets thrown to, as well as the QB

[DaveBrown74]

Possibly the certainty that they are objective and therefore right and the other guy is close minded to their wisdom, which can come across as smugness or condescension?  Just a guess.

Characterize it however you want, but if you read the threads and observe the discussions, 9 times out of 10 the attacks originate from the pro Jones side.

[MightyGiants]

Characterize it however you want, but if you read the threads and observe the discussions, 9 times out of 10 the attacks originate from the pro Jones side.

[AZGiantFan]

Time to throw is perhaps the most misused stat when it comes to trying to blame the QB for sacks.  If you dig into the stat and the nuances involved, you can see just how poor it is.

1)  The design of play-  plays can be designed to get the ball out quickly, or they could require the QB to hold on to the ball longer

2)  Pressure-  This one may seem odd, but it's a thing.  When QBs are forced to scramble and then throw, they add seconds to that throw pushing up the time to throw number.  Similarly, plays that have designed roll-outs will similarly increase the TT number

3) The quality of the receiving targets.  If one QB is constantly having to work to number 3 target or check down, while another QB has top-end receivers that get open (allowing them to throw to number one in the progress), you will see the TT number less for QBs with better receiving targets.

4) Quarterback processing and decision-making-  This also can play a part in the TT.  The quicker a QB processes and the better they make their decisions will speed up the process.

So as you can see, the QB can be partly (possibly mostly) responsible, or they could not be responsible.  However, you need to consider the times the QB rolls out, the times the QB scrambles and throws, the play design, the quality of the targets thrown to, as well as the QB

Which is why something that is obvious and logical to someone with one set of biases - he isn't being excessively pressured because look at his 'time to throw' - seems to lack analytical depth and context, as in your points 2 and 3. 

I'd be much more interested in his time to throw mode rather than mean, because a 10 second scramble disproportionally increases the mean time to throw but masks the possibility that he was hammered in 2 seconds on 2 other plays.  But hey, in that scenario he had 14 seconds for 3 pass plays, an average of 4.6 seconds of time to throw. 

The 2 arguments that get very little traction from me are the time to throw argument, as discussed, and the missing open receivers argument.  The latter because without knowing the play, the progression, and the sightline I don't think those observations are valid. 

Certainly he has missed open receivers - every QB has - but it would take a deeper analytical dive into the data than I've seen to diagnose what open receivers he has actually missed and why.  Frankly I think the coaches are the only ones who have the information and knowledge to do this, and they aren't going to share their conclusions with us.  But it's a lot more involved than just looking at a video replay or even the all-22.

That said, I think there is a lot of sentiment in DJ's favor because I think a lot of us feel DJ was and is being royally screwed by the Giants' inability to surround him from the start with a solid developmental environment of good coaching, a competent OL, and decent weapons.  The Giants did him dirt.  As they did Eli dirt in the post-2011 years.  But the sad fact is that in life there are wrongs for which there is no remedy.  We can look back wistfully on what Jones might have become had the current regime been in place from the start, but we can't go back and have a do-over.  Too much developmental time has been wasted and the economics now are completely different. 

It is perfectly logical to simultaneously believe that DJ has been screwed by the Giants and also that they will likely move on from him, and they should.  Feeling bad that the Giants screwed him in years 1-3 and kind of screwed him in year 4 is fine, but it is not a basis to keep him.  From my set of biases, that is the way to look at it, not picking apart the guy with invalid, IMO, theories of time to throw and open receivers.  My opinion is that these surface stats hide the complexity of football and how it plays out from play to play rather than providing any real illumination.  It is exactly why PFF scores can be so out of step with reality and the eye test - they lack the necessary predicate information to truly see the play in context.

And that's my 2 cents.

[AZGiantFan]

Duh, in the above I meant to say median time to throw, not mode.

[Philosophers]

great points, I think he's missing the last 2 for sure at one point he was good a deep balls but that has regressed significantly to where I don't know that he's even eyeing targets down the field vertically.

Jess - I think he's missing all 4.  The first is the fault of having bad OLs.  At some point the Giants have to give him a better OL but he also has to begin to trust it.  That may or may not happen.  If he believes in his protection, then maybe he begins to look downhill more naturally and more often.  That is not assured either.

[Jclayton92]

When I use time to throw as a stat I use it with his average Air Yards which is a good idea for what is happening. I'm not sure anyone uses time to throw on its own as a data point.

[Ed Vette]

When I use time to throw as a stat I use it with his average Air Yards which is a good idea for what is happening. I'm not sure anyone uses time to throw on its own as a data point.

Time to sack can be a controllable factor. If the QB is responsible for some of the pressure and when he's responsible for sacks meaning he could have avoided the sack by throwing it away or stepping away.