35 players who IMO deserve to go in the 1st round of the 2023 draft

[Bob In PA]

Here are my 35 guys worth a first-round draft pick based on their performance in college last year.  There are lots of RB's. I don't take into account positional value. I think anyone who's the quality of an immediate or near-immediate starter deserves to be included regardless of position (except for kickers/punters/etc.). This list has nothing to do with the "business" aspects of the NFL either.  Some choices clearly won't make sense for some or many teams.

To be on this list, any guy other than a QB must today be the quality of an immediate starter or likely to be ready by mid-season at latest (QB's must be ready to start by mid-season or next year at latest). There may be a few you never heard about. No surprise. Schools out west and small schools get less media coverage (which, sadly, often translate into less respect).  Oddly, there are no tight ends although many came within a point or two of getting what I consider to be a sufficiently high rating.

They're in order from highest to lowest (ties in grading are shown by the fancy numbering system).

1    1a.  RB  Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (surprise!)
2    1b.  EDGE  Will Anderson, Alabama
3    1c.  WR (Z)  Zae Flowers, Boston College (yet another surprise???)
4    4.    Guard  Jordan McFadden, Clemson
5    5a.  QB  Anthony Richardson, Florida 
6    5b.  QB  Brice Young, Alabama 
7    5c.  QB  CJ Stroud, Ohio State 
8    5d.  RB  Bijan Robinson, Texas 
9    9a.  RB  Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State 
10  9b.  Guard  O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida 
11  9c.  Guard  Jarrett Patterson, Notre Dame 
12  12a. Guard  Jaxson Kirkland, Washington 
13  12b. RB  Tyjae Spears  Tulane 
14  14.  Guard  Jon Gaines, UCLA 
15  15a. Safety Brian Branch, Alabama 
16  15b. RB  Keaton Mitchell, East Carolina 
17  15c. CB  Chris Gonzalez, Oregon 
18  18a.  EDGE  Tuli Tuipulotu, USC 
19  18b. Guard Chandler Zavala, North Carolina State 
20  20a. WR (X)  Michael Wilson, Stanford 
21  20b. OT  Braedon Daniels, Utah 
22  22a. WR (X)  Don'Tayvion Wicks, Virginia
23  22b. WR (Z)  Jordan Addison, USC 
24  22c. WR (Z)  Trey Palmer, Nebraska 
25  22d. WR (Z)  Quentin Johnston, TCU 
26  22e. WR (slot)  Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Ohio State 
27  22f.  Center  Alex Forsythe, Oregon 
28  22g. Guard  Joey Fisher, Shepherd University 
29  22h. OT  Anton Harrison, Oklahoma 
30  22i. OT  Dawand Jones, Ohio State 
31  22j.  RB  Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh 
32  22k. EDGE  Nolan Smith, Georgia 
33  22l.  CB  Devon Witherspoon, Illinois 
34  22m. CB  Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, TCU 
35  22n.  QB  Todd Centeio, James Madison (one final surprise)

[MightyGiants]

No Joey Porter Jr?

[Bob In PA]

No Joey Porter Jr?

He came up a half-point short of the grades given to the bottom 14 (all of whom had the same grade of 80).

Bob

PS. One final point: I did not consider injuries, injury history, injury outlook, etc.  I watched a lot of games, and none were injured when I watched them play.

[MightyGiants]

He came up a half-point short of the grades given to the bottom 14 (all of whom had the same grade of 80).

Bob

PS. One final point: I did not consider injuries, injury history, injury outlook, etc.  I watched a lot of games, and all were not injured when I watched them play.

Funny you should mention injuries.  I was listening to a podcast with former GM Randy Muller.  He used to hate medical day.   He would have his board and his prospects, and doctors would just take them off his board, and if he was smart, there wasn't anything he could do about it (He wasn't going to presume he knew more about medicine than his doctors).

[brownelvis54]

Wow Bob. Lots of surprise names there. Several guys on your list that are slated to go in the later rounds.

 QB  Todd Centeio ? Wow. I must admit never seen him. If the Giants draft Tyjae Spears in the 2nd I would be very happy.


Jarrett Patterson could be our answer to Center and could be gotten in the 3rd

[Bob In PA]

Wow Bob. Lots of surprise names there. Several guys on your list that are slated to go in the later rounds.

 QB  Todd Centeio ? Wow. I must admit never seen him. If the Giants draft Tyjae Spears in the 2nd I would be very happy.

BrownE: Just remember the dogma of NFL drafts: it's considered bad form to take interior offensive linemen, safeties and other positions in the first round absent great need. So certain positions typically are ignored whenever possible by the guys responsible for managing the finances of putting together a complete team.  My job was much easier.  I just picked the best players I saw, the guys who IMO did their various "jobs" the best in college.  Bob

[Jclayton92]

All hail Johnathan Mingo. He's Dk Metcalf with agility and 2 inches shorter.

[Philosophers]

Bob - you've gone off the reservation.  I love it.  Your own convictions.  Bravo.

That's how names get drafted that surprise all the lemmings.

[MightyGiants]

@Bob In PA

Could you walk me through how

35  22n.  QB  Todd Centeio, James Madison (one final surprise)

is a first round prospect?

[Bob In PA]

Rich:  First, remember what the list is. He's one of 35 players IMO played best at his position last year.

Reminds me of Hurts while he was in college, but never played on a good team. Finds ways to win, throws darts, super arm. Smart.

Played for three different colleges, despite which he managed to improve significantly each year.

2022 Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year with a 63.7% completion rate for 2,697 Yards with 25 TDs and 5 INTs; ran for 366 yards and seven TD's. Low completion rate is/was a technique defect relating to control of the long ball which IMO will easily be remedied by a pro coach. By the start of the season he'll be ready to be a backup and by next year he'll be ready to take over, depending which team he is on.

He also played for Colorado State (not very well) and at Temple (which is where I first noticed him). The key is his growth from year-to-year.  At worst IMO he's a very minor "projection" into the beginning of next year, when he will be as ready to start as Lamar Jackson was in his second year. Jackson, whom many considered unworthy of a 1st-round pick but turned out ok (to say the least) was able to find ways to win in the NFL and I see this kid doing the same if he continues to improve at his current rate.

Bob

[MightyGiants]

Rich:  First, remember what the list is. He's one of 35 players IMO played best at his position last year.

Reminds me of Hurts while he was in college, but never played on a good team. Finds ways to win, throws darts, super arm. Smart.

Played for three different colleges, despite which he managed to improve significantly each year.

2022 Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year with a 63.7% completion rate for 2,697 Yards with 25 TDs and 5 INTs; ran for 366 yards and seven TD's. Low completion rate is/was a technique defect relating to control of the long ball which IMO will easily be remedied by a pro coach. By the start of the season he'll be ready to be a backup and by next year he'll be ready to take over, depending which team he is on.

He also played for Colorado State (not very well) and at Temple (which is where I first noticed him). The key is his growth from year-to-year.  At worst IMO he's a very minor "projection" into the beginning of next year, when he will be as ready to start as Lamar Jackson was in his second year. Jackson, whom many considered unworthy of a 1st-round pick but turned out ok (to say the least) was able to find ways to win in the NFL and I see this kid doing the same if he continues to improve at his current rate.

Bob

Bob,

I could barely find much on Centeio.  Looking for his scouting reports reminds me of my daily exercise of finding reports on the Giants' unsigned rookies.

I will be interested to see if Centeio lives up to your lofty expectations.

[Bob In PA]

I will be interested to see if Centeio lives up to your lofty expectations.

Rich: Not as interested as I will be. LOL  If he's the "next Tom Brady" you'll never hear the end of it!!!! Bob

[Rosehill Jimmy]

Centeio didn't make Brugler's list of 17 QBs.  Even my guy DeMorat made the cut 

If you're guy gets drafted I suggest you go into another line of work. You clearly know your stuff!

[Bob In PA]

Centeio didn't make Brugler's list of 17 QBs.  Even my guy DeMorat made the cut 

If you're guy gets drafted I suggest you go into another line of work. You clearly know your stuff!

Jimmy: I just watched the games (a lot of them, many times).

Clearly, there's no "prestige" being on this list, since in most cases it will not translate into what IMO those kids deserved, having played IMO lights-out last year.

If nothing else, I get the pleasure of knowing they were the recipients of this "great honor." 

Bob

[GloryDays]

Your list points to a bunch of prospects that if you are right, they would be diamonds in the rough.