A better way of calculating strength of schedule

[MightyGiants]

I heard this mentioned on a podcast yesterday, and to me it made a lot of sense.  Instead of being backward looking at determining the strength of the schedule based on last year's performance, it makes more sense to use the bookmaker's projected win totals.   While still not perfect, I think it's a more accurate assessment



Rank    Team    Rating
1 (toughest)   New England Patriots    9.19
2    Buffalo Bills    9.14
3    Kansas City Chiefs    8.99
4    Las Vegas Raiders    8.97
5    Washington Commanders    8.96
6    Miami Dolphins    8.94
7    Minnesota Vikings    8.92
8    New York Giants    8.88
T9    Dallas Cowboys    8.86
T9    Arizona Cardinals    8.86
11    Los Angeles Chargers    8.83
12    New York Jets    8.80
13    Los Angeles Rams    8.79
14    Seattle Seahawks    8.74
15    Denver Broncos    8.72
16    Philadelphia Eagles    8.69
T17    Baltimore Ravens    8.65
T17    Cincinnati Bengals    8.65
19    Tampa Bay Buccaneers    8.60
T20    Detroit Lions    8.56
T20   Cleveland Browns    8.56
22    Green Bay Packers    8.53
23    San Francisco 49ers    8.43
24    Chicago Bears    8.41
25    Pittsburgh Steelers    8.39
26    Tennessee Titans    8.34
27    Houston Texans    8.31
28    Jacksonville Jaguars    8.27
29    Carolina Panthers    8.24
30    Indianapolis Colts    8.06
31    Atlanta Falcons    7.78
32 (weakest)   New Orleans Saints    7.66


https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/sc-picks/2023-nfl-schedule-release-strength-of-schedule-based-off-future-win-total-odds/article_70888aae-ef4e-11ed-8d93-3fbb8dbe2231.html

[uconnjack8]

No matter how you calculate it, the NFC and AFC East were two of the strongest divisions (2 of the top 3 if not top 2) last year and the Giants play 10 of 17 against those teams.

[MightyGiants]

No matter how you calculate it, the NFC and AFC East were two of the strongest divisions (2 of the top 3 if not top 2) last year and the Giants play 10 of 17 against those teams.

As any NFL coach will tell you, last year was a different team.

While the Giants are 8th in terms of the projected strength of schedule, there is some reason for hope.  The Giants play many of the teams that made this overrated list:

an amazing Website to help translate the analytics of a game, team, or Qb in the modern Era of the NFL.

Buffalo Bills
Dallas Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10074836-the-most-overrated-nfl-teams-heading-into-the-2023-season

[DaveBrown74]

I have seen this method used before, and while I do agree that it's not perfect, I also agree that it's better than going off last year's records. Too much has changed for all teams since those records were amassed, and at least the Vegas win totals represent 2023 instead of 2022.

[Painter]

Why anyone would have based so called, Stength of Schedule on last season's W/Ls while ignoring   latest Roster changes for better or worse suggest laziness, ignorance, or both.

Cheers!

[beaugestus]

Why anyone would have based so called, Stength of Schedule on last season's W/Ls while ignoring   latest Roster changes for better or worse suggest laziness, ignorance, or both.

Cheers!

Every year teams could possibly be much different than the prior season. I don't know who said it might be LiL' Bill, but things like injury, players past their prime, a variety of reasons. I for one don't put too much credence of the strength of schedule.