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A good point and a good question

Started by MightyGiants, October 21, 2023, 10:41:09 AM

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MightyGiants

This Tweet got me seriously thinking.  As you guys know, I am not a fan of keeping injury-prone players.   Jones and his neck are the type of issues I think it's prudent for teams (especially my favorite team) to avoid.  Sadly, we all know once the Giants are out of the playoff hunt, they will start winning games and pushing down their draft slot.   So while I am warming to the idea of moving on from Jones, I wonder just how realistic of an option that is.



Tommy
@TommyG105
For those that want Daniel Jones gone as the Giants starting QB, I do not disagree with that opinion.

He has been inconsistent and has now suffered two neck injuries in 3 seasons.

My question to you is if the Giants rattle off a few wins here, what's your plan at QB next season?


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Ed Vette

Let's see who wins Sunday. If they lose, lets see which players mail it in. I'd start with trading the marketable ones. Build some draft equity and see if they can move up to the top two draft spots.

No matter how they finish, they have two excellent QB prospects next year and they would be foolish not to go after them. They could even trade DJ mext season. He's still a top 15 QB.

"There is a greater purpose...that purpose is team. Winning, losing, playing hard, playing well, doing it for each other, winning the right way, winning the right way is a very important thing to me... Championships are won by teams who love one another, who respect one another, and play for and support one another."
~ Coach Tom Coughlin

DaveBrown74

Rich,

All of the above is valid in my opinion. Both the point about moving on from injury-prone players, and also the point about winning enough meaningless games to make drafting a top QB more difficult.

There has been enough discussion about Jones in the qualitative sense in recent weeks, so I'll leave that side of it alone in this post, except to say that I fully concur with the side you are warming to (to move on from Jones). I'll leave that portion of this post there.

As to the point about the Giants, now 1-5, ending up at something like 6-11 or 7-10, I agree that that's a possibility, but two thoughts:


(1) This is actually a very deep draft for QBs. While Drake Maye and Caleb Williams appear to be going in the top three or four, there are other QBs like JJ McCarthy, Quinn Ewers, Michael Penix Jr, Cameron Ward, Shadeur Sanders, etc who have potential to be good. So if we're picking something like 12th we're not necessarily screwed. Plus trading up from a spot like that is always a possibility.

(2) I don't think it's any sort of a given that we rattle off a bunch of wins down the stretch. We still have to play in Dallas and we have to play Philly twice. I'll be surprised if we don't go 0-3 in those three games. Tack on the Jets (who are clearly more talented), at Saints (tough venue and a decent team) and the Rams (who always wreck us), and that can be another two or three losses right there. Plus how confident should we be in any game right now? Is a game like at Washington a gimme? Is it a gimme that we win in Vegas? We're kind of a mess. We're dead last in team DVOA. So while I don't think we're going to finish with one or two wins, I could easily see us ending up at something like 4-13, especially if we start peeling off some decent veterans for picks. I think the odds of picking in the top 10 are fairly good myself, and I am not ruling out the top five.


Gmo11

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on October 21, 2023, 11:04:26 AMRich,

All of the above is valid in my opinion. Both the point about moving on from injury-prone players, and also the point about winning enough meaningless games to make drafting a top QB more difficult.

There has been enough discussion about Jones in the qualitative sense in recent weeks, so I'll leave that side of it alone in this post, except to say that I fully concur with the side you are warming to (to move on from Jones). I'll leave that portion of this post there.

As to the point about the Giants, now 1-5, ending up at something like 6-11 or 7-10, I agree that that's a possibility, but two thoughts:


(1) This is actually a very deep draft for QBs. While Drake Maye and Caleb Williams appear to be going in the top three or four, there are other QBs like JJ McCarthy, Quinn Ewers, Michael Penix Jr, Cameron Ward, Shadeur Sanders, etc who have potential to be good. So if we're picking something like 12th we're not necessarily screwed. Plus trading up from a spot like that is always a possibility.

(2) I don't think it's any sort of a given that we rattle off a bunch of wins down the stretch. We still have to play in Dallas and we have to play Philly twice. I'll be surprised if we don't go 0-3 in those three games. Tack on the Jets (who are clearly more talented), at Saints (tough venue and a decent team) and the Rams (who always wreck us), and that can be another two or three losses right there. Plus how confident should we be in any game right now? Is a game like at Washington a gimme? Is it a gimme that we win in Vegas? We're kind of a mess. We're dead last in team DVOA. So while I don't think we're going to finish with one or two wins, I could easily see us ending up at something like 4-13, especially if we start peeling off some decent veterans for picks. I think the odds of picking in the top 10 are fairly good myself, and I am not ruling out the top five.



All the more reason for a firesale at the deadline of anybody worth anything.  Even if they just collect mid round picks at a large clip they could potentially use those picks on draft day to move up and take the QB they want depending on where they end up.  And given the number of positions that need upgrading even if they keep those picks and just draft 12 guys next April it'd probably still be more helpful than keeping these guys around to reach free agency.

Philosophers

Washington is something like 6th in the NFL at generating sacks. Giants can't block.  Believe they will lose.

Giants may steal 2 more wins this season but they will not go 6-11.  No way.

I believe in tryibg to preserve health during the preseason and figure out a starting 5 at OL, Dabs did not get them ready with enough live game hitting and too much moving players in/out.

I want a team reset.  Move on from DJ, rebuild the OL (again), draft a maniacal defensive linemen/edge, say goodbye to overpriced underperformers like Leo.

DaveBrown74

Quote from: Gmo11 on October 21, 2023, 11:37:25 AMAll the more reason for a firesale at the deadline of anybody worth anything.  Even if they just collect mid round picks at a large clip they could potentially use those picks on draft day to move up and take the QB they want depending on where they end up.  And given the number of positions that need upgrading even if they keep those picks and just draft 12 guys next April it'd probably still be more helpful than keeping these guys around to reach free agency.


If the Giants, now 1-5 and completely out of the running, do not move pieces for draft capital before the deadline, they're fools. Or Mara is prohibiting them from doing that, which would make Schoen a fool for having agreed to work for him. This mentality of overrating our own players and trying to cling to them and settling for mediocrity has to stop.

And by the way the above doesn't change if we win tomorrow and move to 2-5. If anything all that will do is cast more doubt on the narrative that "no QB could win behind this line."

EDjohnst1981

I disagree with the idea that we are going to start winning meaningless games. I accept they have done this in the past but still have Dallas and the Eagles to play twice - that's likely another 4 defeats. The only remaining games where I think they have a good chance to win will be the raiders and Pats. I think the Jets is closer to 50/50.

I also don't envisage they beat Washington this weekend.

So I'm not sure where those meaningless wins come from.

Gmo11

Quote from: EDjohnst1981 on October 21, 2023, 12:45:07 PMI disagree with the idea that we are going to start winning meaningless games. I accept they have done this in the past but still have Dallas and the Eagles to play twice - that's likely another 4 defeats. The only remaining games where I think they have a good chance to win will be the raiders and Pats. I think the Jets is closer to 50/50.

I also don't envisage they beat Washington this weekend.

So I'm not sure where those meaningless wins come from.

They should have beaten the Bills last sunday somehow.

brownelvis54

Rich I have thought about this a lot. It's my belief that both Maye and Williams will be gone before we pick and for the record, I would take Maye over Williams if I could choose between them. So we need to look at guys that most likely be there when we pick


 Michael Penix Jr. is a guy, he plays tonight Arizona state vs Washington. His age and injuries is what makes his draft stock not as high as it should be.


Quinn Ewers is a guy I like a lot he plays to day Texas vs Houston. He would be well suited to sit on the bench and late in the season see what he can do.


J.J. McCarthy out of Michigan is a name I keep hearing about, but I have only seen him a few times and dont have much of an opinion on him, perhaps others here do

Dion Sanders son is an option Shedeur Sanders, I have seen him play, but not a huge fan.

Bo Nix might be a guy out of Oregan





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brownelvis54

Top QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft: Ranking Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Shedeur Sanders



https://www.profootballnetwork.com/top-qbs-nfl-draft-2024/
The KING is in the building

Giant Jim

I started a thread about this almost 3 weeks ago. They're not going to get anything for Jones at the deadline. But he may have some value after the season ends. He'll have only 1 somewhat high salary guaranteed for a year, which a team can get out of easily after that. It's a good contract for a team to take a chance on. I'd look more at how the line plays thru the 2nd half. If it plays the same as it has been, it might be time to develop a younger QB while buying time to get a line with adequate back ups. Another year like this and Jones could be shell shocked and broken.

Drafting QB's is hit and miss. There are no guarantees the first pick in the draft will be better than Jones or any of the 500 QB's the Jets have drafted over the last 50 years. If they trade Barkley at the deadline, they probably should try to trade Jones in the off season. They should also try to get something for Leonard Williams too (free agent and getting old), if they trade Barkley.

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katkavage

Quote from: brownelvis54 on October 21, 2023, 01:41:08 PMRich I have thought about this a lot. It's my belief that both Maye and Williams will be gone before we pick and for the record, I would take Maye over Williams if I could choose between them. So we need to look at guys that most likely be there when we pick


 Michael Penix Jr. is a guy, he plays tonight Arizona state vs Washington. His age and injuries is what makes his draft stock not as high as it should be.


Quinn Ewers is a guy I like a lot he plays to day Texas vs Houston. He would be well suited to sit on the bench and late in the season see what he can do.


J.J. McCarthy out of Michigan is a name I keep hearing about, but I have only seen him a few times and dont have much of an opinion on him, perhaps others here do

Dion Sanders son is an option Shedeur Sanders, I have seen him play, but not a huge fan.

Bo Nix might be a guy out of Oregan






Remember 2018 and all the QBs drafted in the first round. Mayfield has a career. Darnold a career back up. Rosen is out of football. Then the two best that year were the last picked in the first round. Allen and Jackson.

AZGiantFan

Quote from: Ed Vette on October 21, 2023, 11:03:01 AMLet's see who wins Sunday. If they lose, lets see which players mail it in. I'd start with trading the marketable ones. Build some draft equity and see if they can move up to the top two draft spots.

No matter how they finish, they have two excellent QB prospects next year and they would be foolish not to go after them. They could even trade DJ mext season. He's still a top 15 QB.



The O-line may improve, but won't be "fixed" by next year.  Assuming some team doesn't make a crazy offer for him, if they draft a QB high I think that given the CAP hit they'd take for trading Jones it might make more sense to keep him around to play and take the hits, while mentoring the new guy on how to be a pro off the field.  Whatever is said about some of his on field failings, no one has really questioned his leadership and professionalism. 
I'd rather be a disappointed optimist than a vindicated pessimist. 

Not slowing my roll

DaveBrown74

Quote from: katkavage on October 21, 2023, 07:15:57 PMRemember 2018 and all the QBs drafted in the first round. Mayfield has a career. Darnold a career back up. Rosen is out of football. Then the two best that year were the last picked in the first round. Allen and Jackson.

True. The notion that you need to be picking in the top 5 to have a shot is inaccurate.

Obviously though, all things equal, the higher up you are the better off you are. The best QBs in the league right now were pretty much all top 10 picks. Burrow, Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, Tua, Lawrence.

MightyGiants

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on October 21, 2023, 07:29:17 PMTrue. The notion that you need to be picking in the top 5 to have a shot is inaccurate.

Obviously though, all things equal, the higher up you are the better off you are. The best QBs in the league right now were pretty much all top 10 picks. Burrow, Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, Tua, Lawrence.

Jeff,

It seems that the bar has been set at wanting an elite QB.  Jones (pre-injury) was considered by many of his strongest critics as an average starter.   While there is a chance of getting an elite QB lower in the draft the chances become less the deeper one gets into the first round.
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