The HORRIBLE track record of trading into the top 5 to draft a QB

[MightyGiants]

With so much talk of maybe the Giants trading up to draft a QB, I thought I would look back at the track-record of how teams did when they traded into the top 5 to draft a QB.  The results are pretty shocking and show it rarely, if ever, works out.  Perhaps it's all the draft capital, and players lost.  Perhaps teams don't trade away good QB prospects.   Whatever the reason since 2000 there was maybe one true trade up (not counting Eli's special case) where it seemed to have worked out and that was many years ago with Michael Vick.

Team - Quarterback - Pick - Draft Year


Panthers- Bryce Young-1- 2023

49ers- Trey Lance- 3- 2021

Jets- Sam Darnold- 3- 2018

Bears- Mitch Trubisky- 3- 2017

Rams- Jared Goff- 1- 2016

Eagles- Carson Wentz- 2- 2016

Commanders- RG3- 2- 2012

Jets- Mark Sanchez- 5- 2009

Giants- Eli Manning- 1- 2004 (note: was already in the top 5 and actually drafted Philip Rivers)

Falcons- Michael Vick- 1 – 2001

[Bob In PA]

Rich: Stop citing the facts and allow the boards to get back to "normal."  lol

[MightyGiants]

Rich: Stop citing the facts and get back to "normal."  lol

Bob,

When I go on my data adventures, I never know where it will lead me.  This one truly shocked me.

[uconnjack8]

It seems so much worse when someone drafted later became a much better QB.

[MightyGiants]

It seems so much worse when someone drafted later became a much better QB.

I think it's fair to expect one of the top three to underperform and one of the other QBs to prove he is the real deal.  The trick is figuring out which ones.

[katkavage]

That just means if the Giants end up doing that, the odds are real good it will be a winner. After all, they won doing it 20 years ago (though not technically). Funny meaningless stat though.

[MightyGiants]

That just means if the Giants end up doing that, the odds are real good it will be a winner. After all, they won doing it 20 years ago (though not technically). Funny meaningless stat though.

 

[katkavage]

  Someone has to defy the odds and get it right. Where's Ernie Accorsi when we need him???

[President Rick]

could those SB teams have won the Lombardi with Rivers as qb?  or, as many postulated then - by trading back or waiting to draft big Ben rather than trade up.  Glad things worked as they did for Eli and the Giants, but we did give the ranch to make that trade.

[Jclayton92]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/heavy.com/sports/new-york-giants/trade-rumors-caleb-williams-draft-bears/amp/

I'd be all on board for this trade

[MightyGiants]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/heavy.com/sports/new-york-giants/trade-rumors-caleb-williams-draft-bears/amp/

I'd be all on board for this trade

To me, Caleb Williams is a boom-or-bust type of prospect.  I see solid possibilities that he crashes and burns.  For all his supposed talent, he wasn't the most productive QB in this draft class, even accounting for talent levels.

Plus, a smart man learns from his mistakes; a wise man learns from the mistakes of others.

[Stringer Bell]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/heavy.com/sports/new-york-giants/trade-rumors-caleb-williams-draft-bears/amp/

I'd be all on board for this trade

Ugh. 2 1sts and 2 2nds for a guy with a 50-50 chance to succeed? On a team with the worst supporting cast in the league and numerous holes? No thanks.

[jgrangers2]

The track record of drafting QBs at all that high is really poor. It's only logical that the track record of trading up to get those guys would be awful as well. There's also a huge difference between trading up to get a guy because you otherwise wouldn't get a top QB and trading up to get a guy who you think is better than somebody else you could have gotten. As someone else mentioned, would the Giants have been better, worse or the same if they had just sat back and taken Rivers or Ben instead of trading up for Eli? That's a whole other level of gamble than, say, the Giants trading up from 6 to 1 this year because they wouldn't otherwise have a shot at the elite QB prospects.

[Jclayton92]

To me, Caleb Williams is a boom-or-bust type of prospect.  I see solid possibilities that he crashes and burns.  For all his supposed talent, he wasn't the most productive QB in this draft class, even accounting for talent levels.

Plus, a smart man learns from his mistakes; a wise man learns from the mistakes of others.

I was more referring to the trade up not necessarily the Qb. I'd take Daniels over Williams and Maye.

[Jclayton92]

Ugh. 2 1sts and 2 2nds for a guy with a 50-50 chance to succeed? On a team with the worst supporting cast in the league and numerous holes? No thanks.

It's the worst supporting cast only between have the worst Qb play.

Top 5 RB
Top 5 TE
Top 15 wr
Two burners behind that wr

Not the worst supporting cast, the worst qb play in the league which we need to cchange or we won't ever get better.