Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on Today at 12:29:36 PMI'm pretty pro-analytics, but this guy is talking in a vacuum about historical draft value without any reference to what resources were available in this particular draft. Would it have been great if a top-tier, flawless edge was available at 6? Hell yeah! But no defensive player went until 15 for a reason. Understandably, this may be difficult to encapsulate in statistics... but then it's your job to call out the potential flaws and drawbacks from your approach, not double-down with criticism.
I think the bigger flaw is not fully appreciating the limitations of analytics. If you are drafting a QB, you can't say, "Well, historically, you have less than a 50% chance of success with that pick". Those sorts of claims hold true if you were drafting, say, a hundred QBs. In that case, likely less than 50 would be hits. However, in the case of a single pick, while those stats can give a vague sense of one's chances of success, the individual pick and the factors around that pick (support and coaching) will have a far greater impact.