Big Blue Huddle

Mike,

You could also say from the QB's point of view Auburn's offense is also less complicated than the average college offense.  I also wouldn't say that the offense is "far more" complicated than the average high school offense.  

I also think you are taking a flawed approach by looking at the current roster, as that doesn't take into account the numbers of QBs coming from the various college systems.  If you want to convince me of your point, a good statistical study of the number of drafted QBs from simplified offenses like Auburns vs more complicated college offenses would be far more telling.

I will continue to voice my opinions and counter opinions and statements that I feel are wrong or I don't agree with.  

In the end college drafting is about three aspects:

1)  Physical ability
2) Mental makeup
3) On the field production


Now the thing with Cam Newton is that his on the field production is clearly not a good an indicator than what you see with your average college QB.   In fact while I haven't mentioned it, one of the after the fact reasons given for bust QBs is that their college coaches will often dummy down their offenses to take advantage of their QB's natural talents and ability.   Even in the pro style offenses, there have been many successful QBs who never had to look at more than one side of the field on a given play.   In the end the college game is different with much lower levels of competition and simpler defenses.  At the college level a player can out talent and ability his competition.  At the NFL level that simply doesn't happen.

In the end we have Cam Newton

1)  Great Physical ability
2) Questionable mental makeup
3) incomplete or unknown on the productivity indicator owing to the extreme simplicity of the offense he ran.  Compounding that problem was his single year at Auburn.

So you have a great number one and 2 question marks for the other 2.  That doesn't mean he will be a bust at the next level, but he is a huge gamble owing to the unknowns.  

In many ways Cam is like our own JPP in that he is long on ability short on experience and proven track record.  The difference is that JPP didn't have the character questions that Cam has.

That was a weak article, in my opinion Mike.   The article was weak on fact and example and long on contrary opinion.   It did get me to look at Auburn's offensive coach's book and get this gem:

Even though we technically have 33 pass plays total, we only use eight base combination routes that can run to either side of the field on a regular basis

From a QB's point of view this offense is about as complicated as a high school offense.  

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1585186546?ie=UTF8&tag=chrisbrownsfo-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=1585186546

I think a good analogy Mike would be taking a student into a top notch difficult college.  Cam Newton and his no huddle one read and run offense would be like taking a gifted grade schooler.   The college players in more complex offenses would be like taking a high schooler.  The gifted grade schooler may succeed but it will take more time as they have to take some remedial classes.  In addition high school is a lot closer to college than grade school so a gifted high schooler would have better odds of success than the gifted grade schooler (who is also handicapped by the additional learning).

Quote from: vette on April 18, 2011, 11:41:07 PM
Plenty of talent, don't know the wonderic score, don't know how hard he will work or I'd he'll be a student of the game. Is he worthy of a top three pick?

I heard a wonderlic score of either 20 or 21 which is higher than the average player but below average for a QB.

Here are what some NFL people have to say:

"They're talented, no one questions their ability. (But) the learning curve coming into our league can't be downplayed," said Mike Holmgren, the former quarterback coaching guru of Brett Favre who now heads the Cleveland Browns' front office.

"They have to learn how to play from under center," Broncos coach John Fox said at the NFL scouting combine. "It doesn't sound like a big deal, but it's a big deal."
"Suddenly," Holmgren said, pantomiming the distance between a snap from center and the interviewer, "I'm this far away from somebody trying to kill me. Now try running backwards from there while someone is coming after you, trying to kill you."

"It affects all the mechanics," Fox said. "There's mechanics in getting away from under center, the footwork, the timing, the depth. In the shotgun, all that stuff is done."


"When you're watching," Elway said, "and all the sudden you see 11 guys look at the sidelines because they're calling the audibles from the sidelines? Anytime you see that, you know it's going to be an adjustment going to the NFL because the coach is not going to be able to call the audibles from the sidelines."

Read more: Spread-offense QBs: great in college, not so much in NFL - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_17506785#ixzz1JyR3Am2V
Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse

Here is the interview.  I am even less impressed when I got to see Cam.  I just didn't get the impression he was fully involved in the discussion or appreciated what was said.

Quote from: bighitterdalama on April 17, 2011, 11:24:48 AM
Without getting into the how I know this, Seubert has little-to-no chance of playing football this year. In fact, if he was not so tough, he would probably have little chance to ever play again at all. The injury is even worse than publicly portrayed.

Big Hitter

I can believe it Brian.  I have posted the extensive surgery he underwent and that even Suey is saying he will only begin to run in late July (when he would be ready for the football field is anyone's guess.

Mike,

I have heard multiple scouts, coaches and GMs complain about how the spread offense (what you refer to as the modern offense) has made it much more difficult to scout NFL QBs (and once drafted develop them).   The spread offense is so different from what is done at the NFL level, as compared to the more traditional college level pro style offense) that the QBs coming out lack experience as something as basic as taking the snap under center or calling a play in the huddle or at the line of scrimmage.  Most of the spread QBs haven't even worked a full route tree.   When it comes to spread offense QBs the best NFL scouts can do is scout athletic ability.   That makes the difficult job of scouting college QBs much more difficult.

Mike,

Simplified is not the same as modern.  Even the more pro style college offenses do not match up the the complication of the NFL offense.  You talk about an offense that is all of 40 or 50 plays.  In the NFL you are talking offenses that are all of 400 or 500 plays.   While the NFL style play calling may seem overly complex, the reality is that the NFL simply have too many plays to memorize.  So what seems like gibberish to the casual fan is actually a full description of the play so the players know what's going to be run.  
Based on what I have just said, I have to disagree with your assertion that running Auburn's simple but effective (at the college level) offense has prepared Cam for what he will face in the NFL.   At the NFL level being the QB is incredibly difficult.  First of all the QB not only has to know his role in the 400-500 plays he has to understand what the other 10 players around him are doing.  He has to understand the offensive line scheme called.   Based on that offensive line scheme he has to understand what potential blitzer his RB will pick up and which one the line will pick up.   He has to understand that his WRs are going to run different routes based on the what the defense does.   An NFL QB is going to have to recognize blitzes and understand what his hot routes are.   The more advanced QBs will have to look over the defense (which the defense is going to disguise) and he not only needs to understand how the offense will run based on that defense, he may be given 1 or more (Peyton has nearly the entire play book at his disposal) of plays to check off to, if he doesn't like the defense that was called for the offense.     That sort of complex offense is light years ahead what Cam saw at Auburn.    As Ed said this lack of experience dealing with the complexity of the NFL offense has not been lost on the NFL scouts.   I have noticed that it has been lost on many of the so called draft experts though.

It's amazing the facts one can learn when you talk to a person rather than listen to people talk about a person.  In this case Gruden shows how Newton was in a very simplistic college system:

Quote

Just heard Pat Kirwin on NFL radio.  Pat says he knows that Pouncey has fixed his snapping problems

After watching Koets botch snaps like he did and then perform nearly flawlessly when the time came to do it for real, I am not too distressed by Pouncey's shotgun problem. 

I would like to see the Giants pick up Luke Stocker.  I think he could fit well into the Giants system and we have seen that the Giants like former team captains.

Good work as always Ceri.  When I did my needs evaluation (based on all free agents leaving) TE was a major area of need.  As you pointed out his injury history (especially his concussions make him a risk even if the team does resign him).

My heroes:

Jim Burt-  He was just a fun guy and a solid NT.  Had a great relationship with Parcels.

Leon Bright-  The former Canadian footballer who didn't believe in fair catching punts.