Big Blue Huddle

I'm pretty pro-analytics, but this guy is talking in a vacuum about historical draft value without any reference to what resources were available in this particular draft. Would it have been great if a top-tier, flawless edge was available at 6? Hell yeah! But no defensive player went until 15 for a reason. Understandably, this may be difficult to encapsulate in statistics... but then it's your job to call out the potential flaws and drawbacks from your approach, not double-down with criticism.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 01, 2024, 03:52:32 PMThe irony is if Gettleman had just drafted Parsons (and assuming the Giants were able to manage Parsons as we as Dallas) or if DG grabbed Slater, no one would have ever talked about the Eagles outmaneuvering the Giants.

It was the outmaneuver combined with the terrible pick of Toney in the trade-down (along with squandering the first-round pick they got on Neal) that made things look so bad

Yes, squandering both picks in the deal (presuming that Neal cannot be reconstituted into a passable asset) certainly hurts. Though, if Neal is truly beyond repair, that falls on Schoen.

Quote from: gregf on May 01, 2024, 03:17:35 PMTo make worse,  we passed on Slater and Parsons.  And the comp pick Neal has not panned out.    Ouch!

Gettleman got outmaneuvered by Philly who moved up to take Devonta Smith and then couldn't pivot off the pre-planned approach (take a WR in the first round) to either of those two players you mentioned.

I don't think passing on McCarthy, Penix, or Nix will cost Schoen his job if they perform well in year 1. Of course, their careers are highly unlikely to be defined by their first season in the NFL (whether good or bad)--so firing a GM off such performance would seem equally misguided to me.

Wan'Dale and Hyatt are talented receivers. Slayton is a consummate professional and a good hand. That, in my mind, would have provided a rookie QB a decent enough foundation for their first year. This also ignores entirely the TE position and potential contributions from the new running backs.

Unless Jones plays well enough to prove he is the long-term solution at QB (which I don't even know is possible in light of his health concerns), I don't think it matters. A positive season from Jones would be just that and no more.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 01, 2024, 07:33:36 AM@H-Town G-Fan

That's quite a damning and harsh attack on my character.  I will confess it angered me, and I was ready to post my usual angry reply.  Only this old dog is learning new tricks.

It was a criticism of a comment you made broadly and incorrectly categorizing those who have a differing opinion from yours. I can't stop you from considering that your character. But we've had a similar conversation before--years ago--and I don't know that we've made progress on this topic since then.

QuoteI took some time to consider what you said and why you said it.  So first I went back to read what you wrote:

I have a few thoughts on your comments:

1)  I believe that everyone here agrees that Jones' "marginal" or "somewhat" improvement will prevent him from continuing to be the dead man walking.

2) I asked you for clarification on that comment, but you declined.

Still, it was the part in bold that really struck me.  As far as I can tell and remember, no one suggested that Jones would have an "MVP-caliber season", not even close.  In fact that seems so far removed from what people were saying, that it reminded me of something I read recently.
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I guess this part--quoting me back tomyself in an attempted "gotcha!"--is supposed to be a reciprocal attack on my "character." But my ego is not so entwined with my comments on a digital football message board that I take it as such. If the implication is that I've acted hypocritically, I am certainly guilty of that at times. But even with fresh eyes of the morning, I don't see it here. If you do... well that's fine.

Because you mentioned it multiple times now, I guess I should clarify (though my comments were Waterford-clear): you did not suggest that Jones would have a season like an MVP candidate. But I also never said you did. A holistic reading of the lone MVP comment you've focused in on would realize that it comes immediately after I stated that I don't see Jones being the long-term solution for the Giants at QB. Read together, along with the following comment that he could improve marginally on 2022, is a pretty simple story encapsulating my opinion.

QuoteI don't dismiss the possibility I could have missed that quote; perhaps @Trench or one of the other people who liked your post could help you find it.

I fear that people having different opinions than you makes you feel "more right." For me, I usually turn to introspection or critical thinking about my position (like I've show above).

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 30, 2024, 09:41:40 PMThis is a very inaccurate framing of the sides and the issues.  Based on this very thread, here is a proper description of the "sides."- On the one hand, you have people who are saying not to write Jones off just yet.  They are not saying he will, but they are not ruling out the possibility that he will be successful again like he was in 2022.  On the other side, you have people who are so certain of their assessments that Jones is a terrible or "middling" QB that they insist there is no possibility Jones can have another successful season, despite the, at least on paper, improvement of his support.

What a wildly disingenuous and self-serving statement.

I would say this is beneath you, but putting those who disagree with you into an illogical, inaccurate, and indeed ridiculous box to make your own opinions seem correct by extension is not a new tactic. And even this very thread shows how your self-statedly "proper" assessment is out of line with reality. To wit, I literally noted I could see Jones repeating or improving somewhat on 2022, but you ignored what I actually stated in responding to me in favor of what you find easier to attack.

Divergence of opinions is fine, and indeed healthy. Willfully misstating another's opinion because you disagree with it is dishonest and unworthy of recognition.

Quote from: B1GBLUE on April 30, 2024, 04:17:30 PMi think its just more they were in a position to get their next guy, rather than being completely done with jones. jones is halfway through a lackluster career, and has had some serious injuries in that time. i think they are more concerned about him staying healthy than his play, which probably isnt far behind. a contingency plan has to be put in place at this point

But they weren't in a position to get their next guy--that would have been top-3. They tried to manufacture a way to get the next QB via a trade. While I agree with you that health is a serious concern, I do not dismiss Jones's ineffective play. Daboll's sideline frustrations and comments in post-game pressers do not reflect a coaching staff content with Jones's production on the field when healthy. Trading up for a top-3 QB prospect at the expense of future draft capital is not just a "contingency plan," that is a (potentially costly) attempt at moving on. Drew Lock is the injury contingency plan.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 30, 2024, 03:56:58 PMHe is a player who can't stay healthy (only 12 games last season) and is often not 100% due to injury.  He is also a player whose stats and play are declining with age.

Yet those declining stats and play are still top-10 in the league on a per-game basis amongst TEs. His PFF grade was top-half (with gadget players like Taysom Hill above him skewing that ranking). And the Giants showed no ability to replace that production in his absence. Bellinger couldn't replicate it and I'm not confident a 4th round rookie manages to do so in his first season. So in the best interest of whoever the Giants' QB is in 2024, I'd give Waller time.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 30, 2024, 03:35:28 PMHow much of a difference do you think Waller's 46 yards per game made?

A question, but no definitive statement. How helpful.

Waller was the 2nd leading receiver on the Giants in 2023, despite missing time with injuries. He was a top-10 receiving TE on a per-game basis around the league. You regularly lament the lack of offensive weapons for Jones as an excuse for why he can't be expected to perform like a league average QB, yet here you are advocating to cut one of the above-average players on the team. Is it because his pay is inconsistent with his level of production? Gee, if that's an indictment of a player, I wonder who else on the roster it should apply to. And who exactly is going to replace Waller's production? If it was that easy to replace, why did Bellinger not do so when Waller was out?

Waller was top-10 in TE YPG. He's still an effective weapon, despite arguments that the Giants have no receivers. If he needs more time to decide (within reason), let him have it.

Let's put it this way: there's a huge financial incentive to the Giants for Lock to start over Jones. The prospect of Jones getting injured and his 2025 season becoming guaranteed has to factor into the Giants' plans for this upcoming season. And given his litany of prior injuries, it also has to be a significant (as opposed to merely theoretical) concern. It would not surprise me at all if Jones has an extremely short leash or "loses" a training camp battle to Lock.

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on April 30, 2024, 12:42:08 PMEven on the low end if DJ is Jared Goff, Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins etc. even these guys were pretty successful when they had a functioning well coached OL and WRs. I don't think Daniel unless he is damaged goods at this point is a QB who just 'stinks'. I think his floor is a QB that can be effective if protected well and has quality targets to throw to. Maybe his floor is he doesn't elevate the players around him but with a Nabers and a better coached offensive line I think he can be productive.

Ceiling is us fans get to see what we saw vs. numerous team likes Vikes, Colts, Tampa (rookie year), Washington multiple times happen on a frequent more consistent basis. Those weren't just 'meh' performances but there were many high end QB plays in those games. He does have talent.

Is what I've highlighted that different from most QBs in the NFL? I tend to think not... which then merits in favor of moving on from him with a palatable short-term cap hit, because you can get similar (if not greater) production at a fraction of the cost.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 30, 2024, 11:04:08 AMTo clarify, you don't see an MVP season from Jones; I don't think anyone has suggested that, and I would agree that it would be shocking to see an MVP-like season.  On the other hand, you seem to suggest DJ can't improve his 2022 performance.   That strikes at the point I was making with this thread.  It's far from certain that he will improve in 2022, but I would suggest it wouldn't be surprising if Jones had that growth.   

Pretty sure I acknowledged that he could improve upon his 2022 play. That is within the realm of possibility. I'm saying that still won't be enough for him to be the Giants' long-term solution, as I don't see as realistic the level of play necessary in 2024 to sway the Giants from moving on from Jones. To wit, if they thought that was a reasonable scenario, they likely don't fight to pay a premium to draft Maye.

Giants tried to pay a ton to draft his replacement just a week ago. If not for the Patriots missing a chip-shot field goal and the Giants' defense pulling out some wins in the second half of the season with Devito at the helm, Drake Maye (or possibly Jayden Daniels) would already be on the roster. Giants were aware of the OL play in 2023--they still tried to replace Jones. Giants were aware of the state of the 2023 receiving corps (though advanced metrics love Wan'Dale and Hyatt was a well regarded pick)--they still tried to replace Jones. These were not mysteries or unforeseen circumstances and, importantly, they did not in any way affect the Giants determination that they would replace Jones with the #3 QB in the draft (and pay a premium for the privilege of so doing).

I don't see a realistic scenario where he is the Giants' long-term solution at QB. And I don't consider Jones magically playing like an MVP-caliber candidate to be realistic. It's possible he replicates 2022--maybe even marginally exceeds it--but that won't be good enough as the deal he got was premised on growth, not stagnation. The Giants gave themselves an out in his contract, as many of us identified at the time, for this precise scenario. I foresee them taking it.

I find it interesting many here are still couching things as "fans" being "done with" Jones, ignoring the fact that the front office literally (and in a well-documented manner) just attempted to pay a huge price to jump up three spots to move on from him. Jones very well might have a better year in 2024, but unless he's magically an MVP candidate, his time with the Giants will end after his current contract.