Big Blue Huddle

In 2022, I won my ESPN PPR League.  I loved my team.  Drafted well and made some very good in season pick ups.

Now it's 2023 and time to start thinking about players on our lists to keep an eye on or avoid.  We draft with a $200 budget so production per dollar is important.

QB

I am struggling this year to find an undervalued QB who may be on the rise.  One criteria I must have is that he must be able to run.  To win in a fantasy league you need a top 5 QB.  Jalen Hurts is on everyone's radar.  I had Justin Fields last year and he rewarded me late season.  He did it witht his feet more than his arm.  Will addition of DJ Moore really elevate his passing game?

RB - last year I finally drafted Austin Ekeler along with Miles Sanders.  I got great production out of my RBs.  I believe Bijan Robinson will get over drafted as Atlanta is much too dependent on a rushing game.  Does Saquon have enough left to be a RB1 with top 5 production (assuming he does not holdnout)?  Devin Achane is someone I am eyeing as a breakout player as I think Miami's passing game will open up opps for their rushing and nobody else on their roster impresses me enough as a RB.  Late season I picked up Isaiah Pacheco from the Chiefs and he was solid.  Tempted to keep an eye on him.

WR - I did not fall prey to spending a ton on Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase and instead got nice value with CeeDee Lamb and some up/down with Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson but scored huge with Christian Watson in season signing.  My prediction this season is that Garrett Wilson will be under drafted but will explode now that he has Rodgers throwing to him.

Who are you watching closely for 2023 fantasy season?

Great idea for a thread Phil, and a good time of year to be talking about it with Giants news-flow so light outside of the Barkley negotiations.

I'll address your subjects individually and then make a couple points at the bottom.

For clarity's sake, my league is PPR, it's 12 teams, and we use a snake draft format. I have been pushing for an auction for a while now, but only two or three other guys want to do it, so we don't have a majority.

Anyway:

QB: I agree that you need a premium QB to win a league, but I hate picking a QB in the first few rounds. For this year, in the 4th-6th round range I'm looking at Burrow and Herbert. Burrow to me is an MVP candidate who might be a touch undervalued because he got off to kind of a slow start last year and then he was missing Chase for a number of games. I could see him putting it all together and being right in the MVP discussion. Herbert I like too because he's talented and that offense throws so much, but his receivers worry me. If Quentin Johnston performs as a rookie, Herbert could be top 5. In the later rounds, the guy I'm most intrigued by is DeShaun Watson. While people are down on him, as a 9th or 10th round pick I think the value is enormous. Cleveland has a very good O line and an elite RB who can help set up great down and distances for Watson. Unless you think he's never going to be the same QB because of the massage thing (I don't think that), I think he's going to offer great risk-reward at his price.

RB: I had Pacheco last year and loved him. He is a talent, and he should have a big second season. Obviously with any KC RB, you worry about the way Andy Reid forgets about his RBs, but given how good Pacheco was in the SB I think that will have a lasting impact. Another guy I like is James Cook. With Singletary gone, his workload will increase, and he was very good when he had the ball last year. Yes, they did pick up Damian Harris, and he'll get some early down and possibly goalline work, but Cook is going to have a big role and has the talent to really be the primary guy in that backfield. In terms of premiere guys, I think Chubb is probably my favorite. With Hunt gone he has no competition in that backfield, and the Cleveland O line is great. I could see 1500 yards and 15 TDs from him. In terms of later round picks, I like Achane too, but I also love Charbonnet. I know Kenneth Walker makes it tough for Charbonnet as a rookie, but Walker isn't really a pass catcher so at the very least Charbonnet should pick up points in PPR. If Walker gets hurt then Charbonnet could really shine. I wouldn't use anything other than a pretty late round pick on him, but I've been impressed with him for the past two years now and think he could be a stud.

WR: I'm in full agreement about Garrett Wilson. I think others will agree though, so it will probably take a 2nd round pick to get him (at least in my league). I think he's a no-brainer. I could see him easily being a top 5 fantasy receiver and if he were top three it wouldn't shock me. Moving further down, I love George Pickens and could see him busting out this year. Granted, Pickett isn't a dynamic QB, but Pickens is a stud talent, and I think he'll be a good mid rounds WR who should be starter material in fantasy. Another mid-later round guy I like is Elijah Moore. He was a bust on the Jets, but playing with Zack Wilson and an ancient Joe Flacco isn't the easiest thing in the world. I could see him turning it around in Cleveland with Watson. As mentioned in the QB section I also think Quentin Johnston is worth a look this year. Keenan Allen is old, and Mike Williams is always getting hurt. If Herbert builds an early rapport with Johnston that could be a home run fantasy pick.

TE: I like having an elite TE if I can. Andrews and Kittle are the two I'm hoping to get. Andrews for me is a 2nd round pick and Kittle is more of a 4th. Kittle is actually amazing and puts up monster numbers when he plays. Injuries are always the concern though. In the later rounds, the one I like a lot is Greg Dulcich. He looked good when he did get a chance to play last year and was productive. He is now the TE1 in Denver, and with Sean Payton there and a full offseason for Russ to get his mojo back, I could see Dulcich breaking out. I plan on trying to draft him as my TE2.


As a general strategy point, the way I approached last year was I waited on RBs and focused on WR and TE early. I didn't win my league, but when everyone was healthy on my team I genuinely believe I had the best or 2nd best team. In PPR, having three elite receivers and a top TE is invaluable. I agree you also need a very good QB, although that can be done outside of the first three rounds IMO. With RBs, I draft them in the 5th-9th round range. I know that that's kind of a wasteland for RBs, but I think generally speaking between the waiver wire, injuries, and rookie or 2nd year backs who are undervalued you can generally find your way to having two solid RBs in your starting lineup most weeks. The problem with going with high-end RBs early is (1) they constantly get hurt and (2) in PPR it's really brutal if you're starting just ok but not great wide receivers like Mike Williams and Diontae Johnson. I would much rather have a start like Chase/Waddle/Garrett Wilson/Kittle and then try to draft the Pachecos and James Cooks of the world later. Just my personal opinion, but it worked well for me last year (apart from some injuries which hurt).

Both Atlanta RBs had great year so stands to reason the rookie would.

Been thinking Travis Etienne as RB1 and Andre Dillon as RB2 since the pack don't have a QB really. I think 2 years after injury etienne really explodes and getting those two would allow me to get a top tier WR1 with my first pick likely.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on July 14, 2023, 02:35:56 PMBoth Atlanta RBs had great year so stands to reason the rookie would.

Been thinking Travis Etienne as RB1 and Andre Dillon as RB2 since the pack don't have a QB really. I think 2 years after injury etienne really explodes and getting those two would allow me to get a top tier WR1 with my first pick likely.

I like Etienne too...  think two years removed from the injury he should break out.

I had AJ Dillon last year. He's a solid RB, and I think the workshare split between him and Jones should get closer to 50/50 over the next year or two as Jones is aging (albeit still very good).

Another receiver I want for this year is Olave. I like him a lot, and I think the upgrade to Carr will help him plenty. Plus second year receivers in general (who have talent) are a good play more often than hot.


Some guys that I am staying away from this year:

Keenan Allen: Has had a nice last 5-6 years but he's 31 now which to me is an age where almost every receiver starts to show real signs of decline.

Joe Mixon: Looked awful last year. I'm not sure what the reason was but I'll let someone else draft him. I don't feel like he's being discounted enough this year for how slow and sluggish he looked all last year.

David Montgomery: I like the Detroit offense a lot, but this guy is a JAG, and I think Jamyr Gibbs will be the man there by mid-season if not right away.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans: I'm staying away from Tampa offensive guys this year in general.

Etienne just never seems to bust out.  I have loved him since Clemson and thought he'd be a great back immediately.  Injuries hurt obviously.

The team I may look hard at for players is Baltimore. A new OC should put some fuel in it and with the addition of Zay Flowers and OBJ, I've got to think Lamar lifts up with more prolific WRs.

Nick Chubb is a good call.  He certainly has the makings.  Are you worried about any wear and tear on him as he has been featured a fair bit?

What about Jonathan Taylor?  Such a stud yet Indy's passing game was so horrible defenses could focus in him.  Will Richardson have a good year as that will drive Taylor's success IMHO?

Quote from: Philosophers on July 14, 2023, 03:18:33 PMEtienne just never seems to bust out.  I have loved him since Clemson and thought he'd be a great back immediately.  Injuries hurt obviously.

The team I may look hard at for players is Baltimore. A new OC should put some fuel in it and with the addition of Zay Flowers and OBJ, I've got to think Lamar lifts up with more prolific WRs.

Nick Chubb is a good call.  He certainly has the makings.  Are you worried about any wear and tear on him as he has been featured a fair bit?

What about Jonathan Taylor?  Such a stud yet Indy's passing game was so horrible defenses could focus in him.  Will Richardson have a good year as that will drive Taylor's success IMHO?

Chubb I think is getting close to the age where you start to worry but he showed absolutely no signs of letting up last year. I think he has at least one more year and possibly two more years of elite level performance, and his circumstances have never been better.

I think anything is possible but I think it's probably a bit optimistic to think Richardson will have a good year this year, assuming he plays. I see growing pains and turnovers for him in year one. I love his upside but I don't know about 2023. Taylor is a first round back still for sure, but I significantly prefer Chubb this year personally.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 14, 2023, 02:50:12 PMI like Etienne too...  think two years removed from the injury he should break out.

I had AJ Dillon last year. He's a solid RB, and I think the workshare split between him and Jones should get closer to 50/50 over the next year or two as Jones is aging (albeit still very good).

Another receiver I want for this year is Olave. I like him a lot, and I think the upgrade to Carr will help him plenty. Plus second year receivers in general (who have talent) are a good play more often than hot.


Some guys that I am staying away from this year:

Keenan Allen: Has had a nice last 5-6 years but he's 31 now which to me is an age where almost every receiver starts to show real signs of decline.

Joe Mixon: Looked awful last year. I'm not sure what the reason was but I'll let someone else draft him. I don't feel like he's being discounted enough this year for how slow and sluggish he looked all last year.

David Montgomery: I like the Detroit offense a lot, but this guy is a JAG, and I think Jamyr Gibbs will be the man there by mid-season if not right away.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans: I'm staying away from Tampa offensive guys this year in general.

St Brown in Detroit may be a legit #1 this year and miles sanders may get even more yards this year with a rookie in Carolina.

Also I am absolutely drafting Mingo the stud Wr that got drafted by Carolina as its really just him and Sanders in Carolina with Bryce Young so I think Mingo won't win ROTY but could be the reason Young does.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on July 14, 2023, 04:22:40 PMSt Brown in Detroit may be a legit #1 this year and miles sanders may get even more yards this year with a rookie in Carolina.

Also I am absolutely drafting Mingo the stud Wr that got drafted by Carolina as its really just him and Sanders in Carolina with Bryce Young so I think Mingo won't win ROTY but could be the reason Young does.

If Mingo is a day 1 starter that's a nice pick up as he'll slide through the draft.

St. Brown is a stud... reminds me a lot of Victor Cruz. I wonder what the impact of the return of Jameson Williams will be on him though.

Waddle and Hill will be highly drafted. Both are studs, but you worry about the QB situation there. Tua seems one big hit away from being done for good, and they have no backup.

Which receiver in KC do you guys like? Toney and Skyy Moore are the main options. I know everyone hates Toney but he might put up some numbers there this year if he stays healthy. Skyy Moore didn't exactly blow me away last year.

I love Christian Watson but I don't know about Jordan Love. I'll probably stay away from him unless he falls.

Love me some Fantasy football talk- have been playing for many many years and am in one of the best leagues I've ever seen for the past 7!  Great thread.

I am an auction guy- have done snake drafts many years but ever since going auction I'll never go back.  The amount of fun analytics you can do to get an edge is awesome.  I highly recommend the switch if you ever get the chance (and if you do, let me know I've got plenty of good pointers to share that I don't mind sharing with you since it'll never get back to my leaguemates lol).  First two years in this league we went auction I won back to back championships but now they've wised up considerably so it's been a bit since I've won it all.  We're a 12 team half-pt PPR and dynasty league.

Anyway- just a few random thoughts to piggy back- Definitely agree with the running QB idea- any cheap points at that position you can grab, the better.  I've got Trevor Lawrence for $1 to replace my Josh Allen $1 dynasty play (we can only use em for 2 years then they go back in the pool).  I think Lawrence has a high upside in Jax and may end up top 5.  He doesn't get nearly as many running pts as Allen but I think he'll improve in that area this year.  Ridley coming back certainly won't hurt. 

You mentioned Amon-Ra- he's my other $1 keeper.  Loved him ever since USC.  I think J Williams will actually help his numbers out as they are able to keep defenses occupied more.  Plus I think Jameson may be a year out yet from blossoming...I could be totally wrong on that, but it's just a gut feeling. 

TEs- I'm going to try and swoop up Isiah Likely if I can as an upside play.  That guy is a stud and I could easily see him being a good dynasty guy moving forward (we also allow trades for auction dollars so if I don't use him someone might pay me for him).  I hate TEs in fantasy lately.  Just seems like it's Kelce and then a bunch of crapshoot week to week. 

I need to do more research on RBs to make any kind of decent opinion.  They are getting more and more devalued in fantasy but I think that pendulum has swung too far.  It's all about touches for RBs and if you can get 2-3 that consistently get touches week to week that gives your team a hell of a solid floor.  The WRs I kinda see as the game changers / week to week upside plays whereas your RBS give you a chance to win every week. 

Will be following this thread for sure and would love to bounce ideas back and forth here on what you're hearing, etc.  The league I play in is TOUGH and they do all the research, listen to all the podcasts, etc., so it's more about strategy than IDing players that others haven't ID'd yet...

Welcome to the talk PSU.  More the merrier.

Surprised none of us are banging on Waller of the Giants.  He may really become a security blanket for DJ.

St. Brown is so much better than I ever thought he'd be out of USC.  I had Jameson Williams last season and I will do it again.  He will be in his 2nd season following his ACL surgery.  Once his gambling penalty is iver, I expect him to dominate.  One Lions player already said he cant be covered by anyone on the team.

Trevor Lawrence is popular these days but I doubt he will generate 5 TDs from the run again and I dont think he runs as naturally as other QBs.  Plus his WRs dont wow me but his HC sure does.

Gibbs is going to be the feature back in Detroit replacing Swift.  With their passing game, I expect him to find holes

It's scary no one is mentioning Giants
But ok course
Barkley
Probably Waller
Any Wr ?
Robinson
Or
Hyatt
Especially in dynasty which I don't do
But I think people are mentioning
D Jones are a lower end QB that you can draft and maybe with his legs might not be bad
For those that don't remember
During some Eli years
You did have wrs that went high
Hopefully this year also
What do you think of the defense
Would you draft them

Quote from: ralphpal1 on July 16, 2023, 06:33:58 PMIt's scary no one is mentioning Giants
But ok course
Barkley
Probably Waller
Any Wr ?
Robinson
Or
Hyatt
Especially in dynasty which I don't do
But I think people are mentioning
D Jones are a lower end QB that you can draft and maybe with his legs might not be bad
For those that don't remember
During some Eli years
You did have wrs that went high
Hopefully this year also
What do you think of the defense
Would you draft them

I am very careful in fantasy not to draft Giants just because I'm a fan. That's not to say I don't ever draft them, because I do, but I try to be objective about it.

I won't draft Barkley because I like getting receivers early, and if I take an early RB it will be Chubb.

I'm not drafting the Giants' D. Our pass rush is unproven and we have issues at ILB and the secondary.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 16, 2023, 07:27:29 PMI am very careful in fantasy not to draft Giants just because I'm a fan. That's not to say I don't ever draft them, because I do, but I try to be objective about it.

I won't draft Barkley because I like getting receivers early, and if I take an early RB it will be Chubb.

I'm not drafting the Giants' D. Our pass rush is unproven and we have issues at ILB and the secondary.

I went back and watched the last 20 minutes of every game last season and there was some wild ones, Tennessee, Baltimore, Green Bay, Jacksonville etc but it's the one thing you can tell is blatantly bad specifically the ILB, Nickel coverage and OLB pass rush. Hopefully we take huge strides this season with a full year of Thibs, Ojulari, Lawrence, Williams, and co.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 16, 2023, 07:27:29 PMI am very careful in fantasy not to draft Giants just because I'm a fan. That's not to say I don't ever draft them, because I do, but I try to be objective about it.

I won't draft Barkley because I like getting receivers early, and if I take an early RB it will be Chubb.

I'm not drafting the Giants' D. Our pass rush is unproven and we have issues at ILB and the secondary.

Same with me though I draft both WRs and RBs.  A good RB consistently gets you 20 points nearly every week. 

Quote from: Philosophers on July 16, 2023, 09:19:15 PMSame with me though I draft both WRs and RBs.  A good RB consistently gets you 20 points nearly every week. 

I used to try to be sure to get two RBs in the first three rounds, as I felt like RB thinned out quickly and by the third or fourth round you were left with only committee backs. I won my league one year with that strategy, but more often than not I was dealing with injured RBs and then having to decide a flex guy each week among middling, so-so receivers.

In recent years I have pivoted my strategy to focusing more on WRs early, and it has paid off for the most part. I just feel like in PPR, a team that is built around not just two top WRs but actually three (flex) is always going to be in the mix. I like to make sure my fourth WR is good too, as I don't like having some stiff in there on bye weeks or if someone gets banged up.

Obviously, if I do the above, it means I'm going to be thin at RB, but I feel like RBs can be juggled a bit and if you draft a couple handcuff types to oft-injured starters (like Mattison) you are often in a decent position later in the season.

What I have also done though is draft a RB in the first round, and then not worry about that position again until much later. If you have one top RB, it's much easier to field an aggregate "good" two starters than it is if you don't even have one.

Unless I'm picking in the top two or three this year, that may be what I do as I really like Chubb.

BTW, anyone who thinks Garrett Wilson is going to be available much past the mid second round or so (or the equivalent in auction formats) is going to be in for a surprise when they do their drafts. I actually did a couple of mock drafts the last couple of days just to see where guys are going, and Wilson was gone in the top 17 or so both times.

If I am picking late in the first round like 11th or 12th, I could see just starting with St Brown and Wilson and going from there. I think both will have electrifying seasons.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 17, 2023, 06:55:20 AMI used to try to be sure to get two RBs in the first three rounds, as I felt like RB thinned out quickly and by the third or fourth round you were left with only committee backs. I won my league one year with that strategy, but more often than not I was dealing with injured RBs and then having to decide a flex guy each week among middling, so-so receivers.

In recent years I have pivoted my strategy to focusing more on WRs early, and it has paid off for the most part. I just feel like in PPR, a team that is built around not just two top WRs but actually three (flex) is always going to be in the mix. I like to make sure my fourth WR is good too, as I don't like having some stiff in there on bye weeks or if someone gets banged up.

Obviously, if I do the above, it means I'm going to be thin at RB, but I feel like RBs can be juggled a bit and if you draft a couple handcuff types to oft-injured starters (like Mattison) you are often in a decent position later in the season.

What I have also done though is draft a RB in the first round, and then not worry about that position again until much later. If you have one top RB, it's much easier to field an aggregate "good" two starters than it is if you don't even have one.

Unless I'm picking in the top two or three this year, that may be what I do as I really like Chubb.

BTW, anyone who thinks Garrett Wilson is going to be available much past the mid second round or so (or the equivalent in auction formats) is going to be in for a surprise when they do their drafts. I actually did a couple of mock drafts the last couple of days just to see where guys are going, and Wilson was gone in the top 17 or so both times.

If I am picking late in the first round like 11th or 12th, I could see just starting with St Brown and Wilson and going from there. I think both will have electrifying seasons.

I hear you on all that.  Makes sense.  Frankly, it's like the NFL Draft.  You have to go where it flows.  If there's a run of WRs, then maybe you have to pick a RB or vice versa. 

Quote from: Philosophers on July 18, 2023, 01:33:00 PMI hear you on all that.  Makes sense.  Frankly, it's like the NFL Draft.  You have to go where it flows.  If there's a run of WRs, then maybe you have to pick a RB or vice versa. 

Excellent point Phil. I agree. The worst thing you can do is be so married to one strategy that you execute it no matter what and rob yourself of a clear opportunity that emerges based on the way the draft unfolds. You are 100% right about that. I always try to be prepared for my fantasy draft by being mindful of ADP and doing some mocks, but there are always surprises in my real draft. I fully agree that a sharp fantasy owner has to be nimble and take advantage of these opportunities as they unfold, and it's impossible to anticipate all of them before draft night.

At the end of the day, in the early rounds I'm trying to lock in points. You want guys with high floors AND high ceilings. In the middle rounds I draft for upside and make sure I sufficiently address needs. I do have my base strategy that I try to stick to if I can, but if there is a long run on a position before it gets to me and another position I wouldn't have normally taken there is now loaded with premium quality, you have to take advantage of that. If you don't you're putting yourself behind the 8 ball before week one. Simple as that. You're absolutely right.

I don't typically draft QBs high. This years I will likely change that, I'll wait for 2 of Mahomes, Allen and Hurts to go, and target Burrow & Herbert, both playing for new deals, I expect big things yet again from them both. Not alot of great options thi syear.

RB I am all in on Chubb and Sanders. With Hunt gone, Chubb who is as consistently good as they come should have another great year. Sanders is in an ideal situation where there are few mouths to feed all around.

WR: Lots of value with Amon Ra, Olave, and others, and I am taking a flier on Ridley any chance I get.

Quote from: True Blue on July 18, 2023, 02:05:58 PMI don't typically draft QBs high. This years I will likely change that, I'll wait for 2 of Mahomes, Allen and Hurts to go, and target Burrow & Herbert, both playing for new deals, I expect big things yet again from them both. Not alot of great options thi syear.

RB I am all in on Chubb and Sanders. With Hunt gone, Chubb who is as consistently good as they come should have another great year. Sanders is in an ideal situation where there are few mouths to feed all around.

WR: Lots of value with Amon Ra, Olave, and others, and I am taking a flier on Ridley any chance I get.

Good stuff. I mostly agree. The two QBs you mentioned are two that I am targeting as well. I could see a crazy season from Burrow.

I have mixed feelings about Ridley. I could see his story going either way, honestly. On the one hand Lawrence seems to be helping new receivers immensely (see Engram and Kirk), so that could be great for Ridley, but on the other hand I'm not sure what Ridley's deal is exactly. He obviously missed a year, but prior to his getting suspended, if you recall, he went on some sort of leave for "personal reasons." I don't think that leave had anything to do with gambling; the chatter was that it was some sort of mental health issue. I'm not saying I don't like picking him - I just think he's a wildcard, and I would be fairly round-sensitive with that pick. He's not a guy I want to reach for personally.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 18, 2023, 02:10:43 PMGood stuff. I mostly agree. The two QBs you mentioned are two that I am targeting as well. I could see a crazy season from Burrow.

I have mixed feelings about Ridley. I could see his story going either way, honestly. On the one hand Lawrence seems to be helping new receivers immensely (see Engram and Kirk), so that could be great for Ridley, but on the other hand I'm not sure what Ridley's deal is exactly. He obviously missed a year, but prior to his getting suspended, if you recall, he went on some sort of leave for "personal reasons." I don't think that leave had anything to do with gambling; the chatter was that it was some sort of mental health issue. I'm not saying I don't like picking him - I just think he's a wildcard, and I would be fairly round-sensitive with that pick. He's not a guy I want to reach for personally.

He is absolutely a wild card. I'm kinda banking with his time away he drops to a point where he would be my WR3 or 4, where the risk is worth the shot. It may be a pipe dream for me, but I am hoping he is draftable in the same realm D Hop was a year ago with his suspension. I drafted him as a WR4 on both my leagues and before Murray went down I felt like a genius lol.

If he can be had in a round I like, if he flames out it shouldn't hurt me all that much.

Quote from: True Blue on July 18, 2023, 02:24:10 PMHe is absolutely a wild card. I'm kinda banking with his time away he drops to a point where he would be my WR3 or 4, where the risk is worth the shot. It may be a pipe dream for me, but I am hoping he is draftable in the same realm D Hop was a year ago with his suspension. I drafted him as a WR4 on both my leagues and before Murray went down I felt like a genius lol.

If he can be had in a round I like, if he flames out it shouldn't hurt me all that much.

I agree. I think for me he'd be a WR4, or not on my team, because I almost always start a WR in the flex in PPR, so I wouldn't want to feel dependent on him in case he's a bust. Right now on one mock site I look at (fantasy football calculator) his ADP in 12 team PPR is 8.11. (see below)

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr/12-team/wide-receiver

For me personally I think I'd have a hard time paying a great deal higher than that for him. I think that is probably about fair, although I definitely agree that he has a pretty good ceiling. He was sick in 2020, and I think Lawrence right now is better than what Matty Ice has been in the twilight of his career. So maybe you're onto something here.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 18, 2023, 02:33:05 PMI agree. I think for me he'd be a WR4, or not on my team, because I almost always start a WR in the flex in PPR, so I wouldn't want to feel dependent on him in case he's a bust. Right now on one mock site I look at (fantasy football calculator) his ADP in 12 team PPR is 8.11. (see below)

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr/12-team/wide-receiver

For me personally I think I'd have a hard time paying a great deal higher than that for him. I think that is probably about fair, although I definitely agree that he has a pretty good ceiling. He was sick in 2020, and I think Lawrence right now is better than what Matty Ice has been in the twilight of his career. So maybe you're onto something here.

sounds aout right, I'd like him more in R9 myself

Quote from: True Blue on July 18, 2023, 02:58:55 PMsounds aout right, I'd like him more in R9 myself

What are your thoughts on Toney in fantasy? I know we all hate him here, and rightfully so, but Mahomes just spoke very highly of him publicly (see below):

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/patrick-mahomes-kadarius-toney-can-be-one-of-the-best-receivers-in-this-league

I wouldn't say I'm targeting him aggressively, but he's on my list for sure. We can hate him all we want, but my league is full of sharks and I can't afford to make fantasy football a popularity contest. So he's for sure a guy I'm looking at who should be available in the mid rounds.

Quote from: True Blue on July 18, 2023, 02:58:55 PMsounds aout right, I'd like him more in R9 myself

My league runs 3 Starting WRs, so if I have a QB, 2RB, 3WR, my TE and a flex option (preferably a RB3 at this point), then that is when I start to consider Ridley, when I am not reliant on him in any way. Then I either strike gold, or nothing comes of it and I am fine

Quote from: True Blue on July 18, 2023, 03:10:07 PMMy league runs 3 Starting WRs, so if I have a QB, 2RB, 3WR, my TE and a flex option (preferably a RB3 at this point), then that is when I start to consider Ridley, when I am not reliant on him in any way. Then I either strike gold, or nothing comes of it and I am fine

Got it. My league is 2 WR, 2 RB, a TE, and a Flex. So unless there is some extreme situation with my lineup with byes and injuries, I am generally always putting a wideout in the flex.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 18, 2023, 03:08:14 PMWhat are your thoughts on Toney in fantasy? I know we all hate him here, and rightfully so, but Mahomes just spoke very highly of him publicly (see below):

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/patrick-mahomes-kadarius-toney-can-be-one-of-the-best-receivers-in-this-league

I wouldn't say I'm targeting him aggressively, but he's on my list for sure. We can hate him all we want, but my league is full of sharks and I can't afford to make fantasy football a popularity contest. So he's for sure a guy I'm looking at who should be available in the mid rounds.

Idk, it depends how much of a factor Rashee Rice, their 2nd rd pick is I guess. I personally think he is too inconsistent in any circumstance and completely unreliable and undraftable until he gives anyone a reason to think otherwise. Too many red flags and hardly any consistent production. Not a player I like to target.

I am largely all about volume and consistency, he has neither of those things. I like taking swings and shooting for the moon, I just feel there are better options to go for in that regard personally.

I can be wrong, just too much there telling me to avoid though, so I'll be happy for the guy that takes a chance on him and succeeds

Quote from: True Blue on July 18, 2023, 03:14:06 PMIdk, it depends how much of a factor Rashee Rice, their 2nd rd pick is I guess. I personally think he is too inconsistent in any circumstance and completely unreliable and undraftable until he gives anyone a reason to think otherwise. Too many red flags and hardly any consistent production. Not a player I like to target.

I am largely all about volume and consistency, he has neither of those things. I like taking swings and shooting for the moon, I just feel there are better options to go for in that regard personally.

I can be wrong, just too much there telling me to avoid though, so I'll be happy for the guy that takes a chance on him and succeeds

Fair enough, can't argue with any of that.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 18, 2023, 03:15:26 PMFair enough, can't argue with any of that.

I think if I am going to take a gamble on a rookie WR, it is going to be Zay Flowers.  Rashad Bateman has been only average.  OBJ is on the old side.  Lamar Jackson will look for a new WR and I like Flowers aggressiveness.  Think he starts Day 1.

Quote from: Philosophers on July 20, 2023, 11:27:42 AMI think if I am going to take a gamble on a rookie WR, it is going to be Zay Flowers.  Rashad Bateman has been only average.  OBJ is on the old side.  Lamar Jackson will look for a new WR and I like Flowers aggressiveness.  Think he starts Day 1.

I like that call. He's on my watch list too.

As of right now Quentin Johnston is still my number one pick for rookie WRs, simply because I like the situation he is in and could see him developing a quick rapport with Herbert (who is in a contract year). Flowers is not far behind for me though, mainly for the reasons you said. Part of me was kind of hoping we'd get him. I think he'll be really good.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 20, 2023, 11:32:13 AMI like that call. He's on my watch list too.

As of right now Quentin Johnston is still my number one pick for rookie WRs, simply because I like the situation he is in and could see him developing a quick rapport with Herbert (who is in a contract year). Flowers is not far behind for me though, mainly for the reasons you said. Part of me was kind of hoping we'd get him. I think he'll be really good.

I agree though I am less high on Quentin Johnston than others.  I dont think he dominated enough in college given his physicals.  He's in a damn good situation in San Diego with Herbert.  Wonder if he becomes the new go to guy or it reverts still through Ekeler and Allen.

Quote from: Philosophers on July 20, 2023, 12:09:46 PMI agree though I am less high on Quentin Johnston than others.  I dont think he dominated enough in college given his physicals.  He's in a damn good situation in San Diego with Herbert.  Wonder if he becomes the new go to guy or it reverts still through Ekeler and Allen.

Yup it's not a slam dunk, but I like the situation. Mike Williams is capable of big games but he's inconsistent and gets hurt a lot. Allen is getting older and can't separate like he once could (not saying he's not still good, which he clearly is). Ekeler is obviously very good but a different type of target. If Johnston is a dynamic athlete who is a decent sized target, I could see Herbert building a rapport with him quickly.

I like the Flowers call a lot too. I wouldn't say I'm much higher on Johnston than Flowers. I think both could be additive as fantasy starters this year, potentially.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 20, 2023, 01:51:49 PMYup it's not a slam dunk, but I like the situation. Mike Williams is capable of big games but he's inconsistent and gets hurt a lot. Allen is getting older and can't separate like he once could (not saying he's not still good, which he clearly is). Ekeler is obviously very good but a different type of target. If Johnston is a dynamic athlete who is a decent sized target, I could see Herbert building a rapport with him quickly.

I like the Flowers call a lot too. I wouldn't say I'm much higher on Johnston than Flowers. I think both could be additive as fantasy starters this year, potentially.

I've had some great pick ups over the years with rookies.

Do you guys expect Daniel Jones to be an every week starter in your leagues who starts for a team in your league in week one?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 22, 2023, 07:18:03 AMDo you guys expect Daniel Jones to be an every week starter in your leagues who starts for a team in your league in week one?

Nope.  I dont see it.  In FFL, I dont think anyone will chance a QB with so little overall offensive productivity.  As you know, to win in FFL, you need a consistent 20 + point QB week in/out who also gets you a big week with 30+ points.

Is DJ capable of getting there with this new group of playmakers?  Yes but until he consistently performs, nobody will make that gamble.

Quote from: Philosophers on July 22, 2023, 11:43:10 AMNope.  I dont see it.  In FFL, I dont think anyone will chance a QB with so little overall offensive productivity.  As you know, to win in FFL, you need a consistent 20 + point QB week in/out who also gets you a big week with 30+ points.

Is DJ capable of getting there with this new group of playmakers?  Yes but until he consistently performs, nobody will make that gamble.

I would agree. I think he'll be a high end backup until he shows he can do the above.

Any very late round sleeper type QBs you're looking at?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 22, 2023, 12:31:09 PMI would agree. I think he'll be a high end backup until he shows he can do the above.

Any very late round sleeper type QBs you're looking at?

My favorite later round QB (call it a fantasy QB probably out of top 15) is Jared Goff.  His 2022 season was a monster comeback following 2021 season where he threw 10 more TDs to 29 and nearly 1,200 more yards passing to over 4,400 yards.  Remember he did that with only one real WR in Amon St. Brown as Jameson Williams their star rookie WR was out until like week 12 still rehabbing from his ACL tear.  Williams is out for like first half due to gambling suspension but I think Amon St. Brown will be even better plus they got an absolute stud in Gibbs to run the ball (and catch it).  They also drafted Sam LaPorta at TE who was very productive in college and one of the really good pass catching TEs in college.  I can see him having a role early.  I would expect Goff to improve his stats even more.

Quote from: Philosophers on July 22, 2023, 12:55:20 PMMy favorite later round QB (call it a fantasy QB probably out of top 15) is Jared Goff.  His 2022 season was a monster comeback following 2021 season where he threw 10 more TDs to 29 and nearly 1,200 more yards passing to over 4,400 yards.  Remember he did that with only one real WR in Amon St. Brown as Jameson Williams their star rookie WR was out until like week 12 still rehabbing from his ACL tear.  Williams is out for like first half due to gambling suspension but I think Amon St. Brown will be even better plus they got an absolute stud in Gibbs to run the ball (and catch it).  They also drafted Sam LaPorta at TE who was very productive in college and one of the really good pass catching TEs in college.  I can see him having a role early.  I would expect Goff to improve his stats even more.

100% agree. Goff put up great numbers last year and there is no reason to expect him not to at least repeat them if not improve them even more. He'll get drafted before his ADP in my league though for sure.

So let me ask any veteran of fantasy football.  Do you ever sign up for a league in which you pick players now as oppose to a week or two before the season starts?  I wonder if it ever makes sense given preseason injuries that can occur.  I was a bit bored and thought I'd enter an ESPN one now but am rethinking.

Quote from: Philosophers on July 24, 2023, 01:32:18 PMSo let me ask any veteran of fantasy football.  Do you ever sign up for a league in which you pick players now as oppose to a week or two before the season starts?  I wonder if it ever makes sense given preseason injuries that can occur.  I was a bit bored and thought I'd enter an ESPN one now but am rethinking.

No. My league does its draft usually the Monday or Tuesday the week of the first Thursday night game.

As it is, luck (with injuries) is already a huge component of fantasy football. Our aim as a league has always been to minimize luck as much as possible. For that reason we do our draft once the final preseason games have been played.

I don't see any logical reason to do it sooner. I guess the appeal is that you can take a view on a young player before the rest of the country sees him in preseason games, and if you're right it pays off more than if you drafted that player after the final preseason game and his draft value is higher, but I don't think that's a good enough reason to talk on significantly more freak-injury risk. Tons of guys get hurt in the preseason, very often season-ending injuries. Why underwrite that risk if you don't have to?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 24, 2023, 01:35:32 PMNo. My league does its draft usually the Monday or Tuesday the week of the first Thursday night game.

As it is, luck (with injuries) is already a huge component of fantasy football. Our aim as a league has always been to minimize luck as much as possible. For that reason we do our draft once the final preseason games have been played.

I don't see any logical reason to do it sooner. I guess the appeal is that you can take a view on a young player before the rest of the country sees him in preseason games, and if you're right it pays off more than if you drafted that player after the final preseason game and his draft value is higher, but I don't think that's a good enough reason to talk on significantly more freak-injury risk. Tons of guys get hurt in the preseason, very often season-ending injuries. Why underwrite that risk if you don't have to?

Thank you.  That was my thinking as well but wondered if I was missing something.  Ok so can plan away for next 5 weeks.

Maybe all of us can do a fantasy league or a pick em weekly between us in a small setting.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on July 24, 2023, 04:19:06 PMMaybe all of us can do a fantasy league or a pick em weekly between us in a small setting.

I am personally a one league guy myself, but I was actually thinking this could be a great thread to keep alive all year as a place to bounce ideas/tips/info around each week. It would also be great to get people's thoughts on tough lineup decisions that come up.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 24, 2023, 05:12:00 PMI am personally a one league guy myself, but I was actually thinking this could be a great thread to keep alive all year as a place to bounce ideas/tips/info around each week. It would also be great to get people's thoughts on tough lineup decisions that come up.

I was more thinking of like a 5 dollar pick em pool kinda thing for fun just pick the wins and losses  etc

I like drafting after the third preseason games just to see how players are used
Also to see of rookie rbs can pick up the blitz
Everyone is high on B Robinson the rookie rb
But just say he can't pick up the blitz. Fumbles a few times on the Goal line

Was doing some research tonight and thought I'd share a few thoughts I've been having...

---I'm scared of any/all Ravens WRs until Lamar proves he can make them studs.  They keep bringing guys in that all seem to disappoint so I'm staying away from them until I see otherwise.
---I'm in an auction league with 2 keepers a year.  12 teams, 1/2 point PPR.  If anyone is in a similar situation and wants a copy of the spreadsheet I use to calculate inflation, true values, historical league data, etc., just let me know through DMs
---I'm digging Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin as mid-range value pickups at the moment.
---George Pickens continues to intrigue me
---I'm fighting the urge hard to be a homer in regards to D Waller.  I'm probably going to be sticking to value TEs later, which is what I almost always end up doing.  TE position is just volatile hot garbage most the time.  That being said, I think Juwan Johnson, Dawson Knox, Trey McBride may be late-round TE2s I look at.  I also might target Isiah Likely who is an absolute monster to stash on your bench in case Andrews gets hurt- then can either play him or trade him.
---A couple value RBs I'm really interested in- James Cook, Samaje Perine/J Williams (take both and one likely to hit), A Mattison. 

Anyway, this will all change a good deal as training camps get rolling.  Hope you're all doing well!

Quote from: PSUBeirut on July 25, 2023, 09:00:53 PMWas doing some research tonight and thought I'd share a few thoughts I've been having...

---I'm scared of any/all Ravens WRs until Lamar proves he can make them studs.  They keep bringing guys in that all seem to disappoint so I'm staying away from them until I see otherwise.
---I'm in an auction league with 2 keepers a year.  12 teams, 1/2 point PPR.  If anyone is in a similar situation and wants a copy of the spreadsheet I use to calculate inflation, true values, historical league data, etc., just let me know through DMs
---I'm digging Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin as mid-range value pickups at the moment.
---George Pickens continues to intrigue me
---I'm fighting the urge hard to be a homer in regards to D Waller.  I'm probably going to be sticking to value TEs later, which is what I almost always end up doing.  TE position is just volatile hot garbage most the time.  That being said, I think Juwan Johnson, Dawson Knox, Trey McBride may be late-round TE2s I look at.  I also might target Isiah Likely who is an absolute monster to stash on your bench in case Andrews gets hurt- then can either play him or trade him.
---A couple value RBs I'm really interested in- James Cook, Samaje Perine/J Williams (take both and one likely to hit), A Mattison. 

Anyway, this will all change a good deal as training camps get rolling.  Hope you're all doing well!

Great notes. We overlap on a few points:

- I am of a similar mind with the Baltimore receivers. I'm very likely leaving them alone, although I do like Flowers a lot as a player. If I draft any of the receivers there it's him. No interest in Bateman or OBJ.

- I have always loved McLaurin and will have no problem drafting him. I don't have much of a view on Howell either way, but I don't see how he can much worse than the QBs McLaurin has had in recent years, and maybe he'll be better.

-Waller seems fairly priced to me. I'm not chasing him, but I'm not putting my foot down about drafting him either if he falls a little and I have whiffed on TE before that. If I do end up with Waller, it's clearly urgent to have a TE2 I like. My personal favorite (and I want to get this guy anyway if I can) is Greg Dulcich. I loved him at UCLA and his pro-rated numbers last year were impressive for a rookie. I think he could end up being a mid-level fantasy TE1 this year.

-I'm a huge George Pickens guy. I'm targeting him and don't mind reaching for him a little.

-I am also very high on James Cook. Big YPC last year as a rookie and will clearly catch plenty of balls. They were comfortable enough moving on from Singletary, which is a good sign for Cook. With Nyheim Hines now also out for the year his value is only greater at the margin. They did get Damian Harris but he is an early downs JAG type at this point.

-I like Mattison too but I think plenty of people will be on him. I suspect him to be a late 3rd round/early 4th rounder in a 12 team league. He might be good value at that type of price though, so fair point.

Last year every move I made became gold which was ridiculously fortuitive.  When Lamar got hurt I started Justin Fields who went on a tear.  Picked up Pachecho just when he went on a tear.

I drafted Christian Watson and stored him then at end of season he lit it up as I played him.

I feel like the Ravens will be different.  Lamar will never be Brady but his legs sure help.  Same with Fields.

Funny you mentioned Waller.  I may be one of those homers who picks him only because he is the one certain guy I think DJ will lean on.  George Kittle was my TE last year and I may lean on him again.

I cant draft Ekeler again as he will be too damned expensive.  I had Miles Sanders and liked his productivity and think they may use him more in Carolina.

Tua may be one of my target QBs.  He is fragile but when he plays he is consistent and another year may afford a leap.

Quote from: Philosophers on July 25, 2023, 10:06:44 PMLast year every move I made became gold which was ridiculously fortuitive.  When Lamar got hurt I started Justin Fields who went on a tear.  Picked up Pachecho just when he went on a tear.

I drafted Christian Watson and stored him then at end of season he lit it up as I played him.

I feel like the Ravens will be different.  Lamar will never be Brady but his legs sure help.  Same with Fields.

Funny you mentioned Waller.  I may be one of those homers who picks him only because he is the one certain guy I think DJ will lean on.  George Kittle was my TE last year and I may lean on him again.

I cant draft Ekeler again as he will be too damned expensive.  I had Miles Sanders and liked his productivity and think they may use him more in Carolina.

Tua may be one of my target QBs.  He is fragile but when he plays he is consistent and another year may afford a leap.

People were very down on Tua last year and I managed to get him off waivers after some guy cut him. I had Burrow so I didn't desperately need him and tried to trade him but I couldn't get much for him. I ended up actually starting him a couple times and it worked.

Outside of Goff, who isn't going that late, I don't love any late QBs this year. If I were gambling in the final couple rounds, Ridder is someone I would consider just given the weapons he has. With Bijan, Pitts, and London, maybe he can put up some numbers against some of these crappy NFC South teams.

Is Jameson Williams worth drafting? What round would you take him in in PPR in a 12 team league? I know he's talented, but if that offense is humming without him I have a hard time seeing him come in off a suspension and taking tons of targets away from people right away. That process could take a few games.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 25, 2023, 10:34:16 PMIs Jameson Williams worth drafting? What round would you take him in in PPR in a 12 team league? I know he's talented, but if that offense is humming without him I have a hard time seeing him come in off a suspension and taking tons of targets away from people right away. That process could take a few games.

I like Jameson and in my league he'll be a guy that people overpay for because they'll all try to outsmart it.  But it could pay off because I do believe Jameson has the chance to be a difference maker late in the season/toward playoff time.  I've got Amon-Ra as a dynasty/keeper and this is the last year I get to keep him...so I'm already trying to figure out when I may be able to squeeze the most juice out of trading him once Jameson gets rolling. 

Interested to hear more about Dulcich- it's a name I had come across but hadn't dove too deeply into.  Will go check him out more, thanks for the tip!

Quote from: PSUBeirut on July 26, 2023, 07:28:08 AMI like Jameson and in my league he'll be a guy that people overpay for because they'll all try to outsmart it.  But it could pay off because I do believe Jameson has the chance to be a difference maker late in the season/toward playoff time.  I've got Amon-Ra as a dynasty/keeper and this is the last year I get to keep him...so I'm already trying to figure out when I may be able to squeeze the most juice out of trading him once Jameson gets rolling. 

Interested to hear more about Dulcich- it's a name I had come across but hadn't dove too deeply into.  Will go check him out more, thanks for the tip!

You bet!

Just to put a few bullets down on Dulcich:

(1) As I said, he popped off the screen for me talent-wise when he was at UCLA. Take that FWIW, which isn't much because I'm certainly wrong my share of times, but I have always had my eye on him. He is not a great blocker, but he is an excellent athlete who can make plays downfield and has great ball skills from what I have observed. And obviously the blocking issue isn't relevant to fantasy (unless it is so bad that it keeps him off the field, which I don't believe to to be the case).

(2) Year one in the NFL, he battled injuries, plus he was the TE2 after Albert Okwuegbunam. This year he is slated to be the TE1.

(3) So in year one, in 10 games as the secondary guy, he had 33 catches for 411 yards and two TDs. Pro-rates to 56-699-3.4 over a full 17 games. That's pretty darn good for a rookie TE2 on a team that had a terrible offense overall and a playcaller/head coach who had no clue what he was doing and was fired after one year.


I'm not crazily bullish on Russell Wilson, but I do think he'll do better than last year, plus I think Payton is a game-changing hire versus Hackett. I think it all translates well for Dulcich.

For where he's going I like his upside/value. If he does something like 60/800/6 this year I don't see how that would be a huge surprise given all of the above.

BTW, I actually did a fantasy mock draft the other day just for fun (12 team PPR), and Garrett Wilson was taken in the mid 2nd round. So it seems people have the same opinion we expressed earlier in this thread, and I don't expect him to come with any sort of discount.

Especially in my league, which has a couple of Jets fans in it, both of whom think Wilson is as good as a young OBJ.

True Blue, thought you might find this interesting:


https://twitter.com/jasrifootball/status/1686117962346876928

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 31, 2023, 05:16:53 PMTrue Blue, thought you might find this interesting:


https://twitter.com/jasrifootball/status/1686117962346876928

I had Calvin Ridley his rookie year.  I like him.  Still waiting for him to be a healthy WR1.

Quote from: Philosophers on July 31, 2023, 06:53:15 PMI had Calvin Ridley his rookie year.  I like him.  Still waiting for him to be a healthy WR1.

I feel like he's a guy whose draft value will fluctuate a lot between now and the time most fantasy leagues hold their drafts. Everyone knows what this guy is capable of if he is mentally and physically right. Right now people don't trust him. However, if he looks good in preseason play and there is more good buzz around him in camp, he will fly up the boards this month.

Elijah Moore was on my list of mid to later round receivers to target, and apparently he is really having an excellent camp. I am bullish on the Browns in general this year, and I think this guy has a real chance to have a breakout year. I feel like he is priced to be a WR4 or WR5 right now and I think he could really overdeliver at that price point. Definitely a guy I'm willing to reach for a little bit if his ADP stays around where it is.

I was checking out some preseason camp news and it looks like Jaxon Smith Njigba is looking outstanding for the Seahawks and is playing almost 100% slot WR.  He's a target of mine as I think he can flourish there with DK Metcalf on the outside.  Keep an eye on him.  He will not be highly priced.

Quote from: Philosophers on August 09, 2023, 09:58:39 AMI was checking out some preseason camp news and it looks like Jaxon Smith Njigba is looking outstanding for the Seahawks and is playing almost 100% slot WR.  He's a target of mine as I think he can flourish there with DK Metcalf on the outside.  Keep an eye on him.  He will not be highly priced.

He's on my list as well. He was frankly on my list for the Giants at 21st overall. I think he's a legit talent. I could see him eating into Lockett's targets.

Seattle's offense has plenty of weapons both on the ground and in the air.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 09, 2023, 10:01:37 AMHe's on my list as well. He was frankly on my list for the Giants at 21st overall. I think he's a legit talent. I could see him eating into Lockett's targets.

Seattle's offense has plenty of weapons both on the ground and in the air.

Agree however I think his success in the NFL will be as a slot WR.  He played outside a bit at OSU but I think he will not be successful outside in the NFL.

In my league we have a draft to decide the draft order. 12 team PPR league. I am picking 7th to decide the order. Most likely I will end up with the 7th pick. There's always the chance someone in front of me chooses a later slot and I end up with sixth or even fifth possibly, but I kind of doubt that happens. I think I'll be 7th, and I'm ok with that.

Unless I have a really strong reason, I think all things equal it's better to be earlier. Over the course of the entire draft you're simply picking in an average earlier spot if you are earlier than if you pick later. I know many people like to pick late, but I find people are only thinking about the first two rounds when they indicate that preference. I feel that is a flawed or at least incomplete way of looking at it myself.

I wanted to ask everyone here: do you have any non-pay websites (I pay for more than enough content these days) that you like for fantasy? I kind of know the big name ones already - anyone you find to be particularly sharp that's maybe a little off the beaten path? If you have a pay one that you really think is worth it feel free to list it, but I'm not really looking to pay for fantasy football content at the moment.

ok I don't know about you guys but I'm now all in on Waller.  Him + Kafka + how the offense is looking geared his way has sold me.  I'm also going to target DJ as my QB so I can get good value there and spend cash in other places.  I don't think I'm being a homer here- in fact, if Waller does go down with injury I'm gonna make sure to grab Bellinger because I think he'll step up and be viable.

Thoughts???  I'm usually not a homer in my drafts but in this case I don't think my eyes are lying to me!!

Quote from: PSUBeirut on August 19, 2023, 05:50:16 PMok I don't know about you guys but I'm now all in on Waller.  Him + Kafka + how the offense is looking geared his way has sold me.  I'm also going to target DJ as my QB so I can get good value there and spend cash in other places.  I don't think I'm being a homer here- in fact, if Waller does go down with injury I'm gonna make sure to grab Bellinger because I think he'll step up and be viable.

Thoughts???  I'm usually not a homer in my drafts but in this case I don't think my eyes are lying to me!!

Totally agree 100% on Waller. And believe me, I really go out of my way to not be a homer in fantasy. My league is pretty competitive and sharp, so there really is no room to be.

We're not the only ones on Waller. His ADP is steadily rising. I'm picking 12th in a 12 team league, and mocks suggest I only have about a 50/50 chance of getting him on the 5/6 turn. And my draft isn't until Sep 5th, so I'm a little concerned. Given his injury tendencies, I think the 3/4 turn is a bit early, even with him looking this good. With that said I am increasingly thinking he'll be a top 2 or 3 TE if he manages to stay healthy all season.

Jones should be a good fantasy QB this year. Not sure if I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but fast fact: Jones averaged more fantasy points per game than Justin Herbert last year. Even last year Jones was a viable streaming option - this year I think he will be a legitimate starter. With that said, my league happens to be a 6 point for TD pass league, so I need guys that I definitely see getting 30 plus passing TDs. Jones might, but it's no guarantee.

A couple guys I've been warming up to more recently:


Jaxon Smith-Njigba: I believe Phil mentioned him earlier in the thread. I've always loved this kid and wouldn't have minded it if we drafted him to the Giants. I know he has competition for targets in Seattle, but I could really see him getting more of a target share than one might think today. He is a great talent IMO.

Jordan Addison: I will be up front about the fact that I was down on this guy in the real life draft (despite acknowledging he was excellent in college). His measurables were awful, but he seems pretty adept at separating, and it seems like he'll be a key part of this Viking offense, which throws the ball plenty. The Vikes' D is going to be awful again this year (maybe even worse than last year), so they're going to be throwing constantly. And consider also that the loss of Cook will open up some targets to be distributed. I think this guy will have enough volume to be a decent flex option.

Jaylen Warren: I know this one will make you scratch your heads, but I am planning on trying to get him very late as my RB5. Simply put, I think this guy may be better than Najee Harris. I am not suggesting he will usurp Harris as the bell cow back in this offense, but I think he will start to chip away at Harris' volume. Pittsburgh has a run-on-first, run-on-second, throw-on-third vanilla offense, so there is plenty to go around there. Plus this guy is a good pass catcher. Simply put I think Harris is overrated, and this guy is underrated. I'm not advocating using any serious capital for him, but I like him late (12th/13th round or so).

Dalton Kincaid: Seems like this guy is definitely going to be in the slot for the Bills. We all know he's talented, and we know the Bills moved up in the first round to get him. They didn't do that to have him standing on the sidelines. Could have a big rookie season.

Sam LaPorta: I think he's a little less of a lock than Kincaid, but apparently they love him in Detroit.

Deuce Vaughn: Thoughts on this guy? Worth a very late flier (like 14th round or later)?

Ok, I just completed am auction draft for a ESPN league I joined.  I want feedback - if you think it sucks tell me.

QB - Justin Fields
RB - Austin Ekeler
RB - Saquon Barkley
WR - Amon Ra. St. Brown
WR - Jaxon Smith Njigba
TE - Darren Waller
D/STs - Jets
K - Graham Gano

Backups
QB - Tua Tagliovoa
RB - Isaiah Pacheco
RB - De'Von Achane
WR - Sky Moore
WR - Rashee Rice
WR - Zay Flowers
WR - Jalin Hyatt

My thinking

1) my fantasy strategy is always to get to 120 points consistently with an average of 13 points from starters  and getting all starters to 10 points in a game.
 
2) I went heavy with unproven Kansas City Chiefs WRs because I think 1 will step up to be WR1 in a high powered offense.

3) I went heavy with rookie WRs because I think one will emerge in a big way.  JSN has looked fabulous and is already penciled into slot.

4) Giants heavy was just the way it played out.  Was not being a homer.

Question

Jared Goff is still available.  Should I waive say Fields to pick him up?  This has been my biggest question.

1) 0-10 , rate my team

2) like my thinking or not

3) should I pick up Goff?

Quote from: Philosophers on August 20, 2023, 01:36:34 PMOk, I just completed am auction draft for a ESPN league I joined.  I want feedback - if you think it sucks tell me.

QB - Justin Fields
RB - Austin Ekeler
RB - Saquon Barkley
WR - Amon Ra. St. Brown
WR - Jaxon Smith Njigba
TE - Darren Waller
D/STs - Jets
K - Graham Gano

Backups
QB - Tua Tagliovoa
RB - Isaiah Pacheco
RB - De'Von Achane
WR - Sky Moore
WR - Rashee Rice
WR - Zay Flowers
WR - Jalin Hyatt

My thinking
1) I went heavy with unproven Kansas City Chiefs WRs because I think 1 will step up to be WR1 in a high powered offense.

2) I went heavy with rookie WRs because I think one will emerge in a big way.  JSN has looked fabulous and is already penciled into slot.

3) Giants heavy was just the way it played out.  Was not being a homer.

Question

Jared Goff is still available.  Should I waive say Fields to pick him up?  This has been my biggest question.

Phil,

Very nice work. My thoughts:

RBs: Think you crushed it here. Two studs starting and a very strong bench with upside.

WRs: Obviously St. Brown is a stud. Regarding JSN, I'm a huge fan (as said in the previous post), but I don't know about being in a position where I'm depending on him on day one. I am not sure if I would start him in week one over Flowers. With that said between Flowers, JSN, Hyatt, and those Chief receivers you have a lot of upside there and will ultimately have at least two high quality starters, more likely three.

TE: Love Waller, as stated above. I might have grabbed a late round backup that I like though (LaPorta, Kincaid, Dulcich) in case he gets hurt, but love the pick.

QB: Fields has a shot to lead the league in fantasy points. I think that's a great pick.

To answer your question: if I'm going to cut a QB to pick up Goff, no way I'm cutting Fields instead of Tua. Fields is a must-keep. I definitely might cut Tua to make way for Goff, but it's fairly close there. If Tua stays healthy he's going to put up a ton of points. Goff seem more durable though, and he also puts up points. Slight lean for Goff for me.

Phil I think you did a great job with it, although I agree your biggest question mark is fields. I am not buying any stock in fields this year, or if I am he's going to ride my bench as a potential flyer or trade bait when he has an inevitable big game that convinces people he's the real deal...

He is just too young, too inconsistent, etc. For me!

Quote from: PSUBeirut on August 20, 2023, 02:06:16 PMPhil I think you did a great job with it, although I agree your biggest question mark is fields. I am not buying any stock in fields this year, or if I am he's going to ride my bench as a potential flyer or trade bait when he has an inevitable big game that convinces people he's the real deal...

He is just too young, too inconsistent, etc. For me!

To me Fields is basically a good fantasy running back who also gets passing yards and passing TDs. Assuming health, he is going to rush for 1100-1200 yards and get 7-11 rushing TDs. The question is can he also throw for closer to 3k passing yards and over 20 passing TDs, or is he going to stay closer to numbers like last year's? Since he is young, as you point out, I would bet on an improvement on the passing side of the game. Adding DJ Moore, who is way better than any receiver he has had to this point, should help significantly on that front.

My league is 6 points for passing TDs, not 4, so Fields is pretty much off my board anywhere near his current ADP, but if I were in a 4 point passing TD league he's someone I would personally consider.

Thanks DB and PSU for your thoughts.  I had Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields last year and as Jackson got cold during season I played Fields to huge success but feel positive line DB a d unsure like PSU.

I feel like combo of Ekeler and Barkley more than make up for an unproven WR2.  Ultimately one will rise from my rookies.

Funny but I did not write it but DB you were reading my mind.  LaPorta is tearing up Lions camp and I thought of dropping someone to grab him off available list so I have every backup covered.  I cant figure iyt who to drop.

Appreciate the feedback guys.

Quote from: Philosophers on August 20, 2023, 02:54:15 PMThanks DB and PSU for your thoughts.  I had Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields last year and as Jackson got cold during season I played Fields to huge success but feel positive line DB a d unsure like PSU.

I feel like combo of Ekeler and Barkley more than make up for an unproven WR2.  Ultimately one will rise from my rookies.

Funny but I did not write it but DB you were reading my mind.  LaPorta is tearing up Lions camp and I thought of dropping someone to grab him off available list so I have every backup covered.  I cant figure iyt who to drop.

Appreciate the feedback guys.

LaPorta was always going to be my TE2 if I don't get Kincaid or Dulcich, but I am starting to like LaPorta more and more. I don't know how Jameson Williams' return will ultimately impact any sort of target share that he establishes in the first 6 games, but if he does well, I'm sure he won't be phased out. Dan Campbell (as we all know) was a TE himself, so I'm sure he values having a good one.

I always like to have a TE2 because tight ends get hurt so often, and once the season gets rolling it is hard to get anyone decent off the waiver wire. Any good TEs who don't get drafted are usually picked up by week 2 or 3, so if you only have one and your guy gets hurt in week 6, it's usually problematic. QB on the other hand is usually less of an issue in that respect IMO.

I think you're going to be fine at WR2. Good chance you'll be better than fine. My only potential concern was the first few games, but even that may not be an issue.

I like Achane a lot from a talent perspective. Do you think he'll get material year one touches in that crowded backfield though? He is definitely a guy I'm looking at late.

Just don't know about fields making a living in the nfl as a pure running qb. It just doesn't work. I think DCs are going to scheme him up better this year and if he keeps running its inevitable he will be missing some time.  Could very well be wrong but that's part of the fun. :)

Quote from: PSUBeirut on August 20, 2023, 03:33:46 PMJust don't know about fields making a living in the nfl as a pure running qb. It just doesn't work. I think DCs are going to scheme him up better this year and if he keeps running its inevitable he will be missing some time.  Could very well be wrong but that's part of the fun. :)

I agree about the heightened risk of injuries for these types of QBs, and I wouldn't want him to be our QB over Jones. Fantasy-wise though I get the appeal. He was 5th among QBs in fantasy points per game last year, and he was 23 then and the team around him is better. Given those considerations, I think it's reasonable to think he will be even more productive this year, however durability is no doubt a concern with this style. Having a solid, reliable backup like Goff makes sense if you're rolling with Fields.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 20, 2023, 03:07:12 PMLaPorta was always going to be my TE2 if I don't get Kincaid or Dulcich, but I am starting to like LaPorta more and more. I don't know how Jameson Williams' return will ultimately impact any sort of target share that he establishes in the first 6 games, but if he does well, I'm sure he won't be phased out. Dan Campbell (as we all know) was a TE himself, so I'm sure he values having a good one.

I always like to have a TE2 because tight ends get hurt so often, and once the season gets rolling it is hard to get anyone decent off the waiver wire. Any good TEs who don't get drafted are usually picked up by week 2 or 3, so if you only have one and your guy gets hurt in week 6, it's usually problematic. QB on the other hand is usually less of an issue in that respect IMO.

I think you're going to be fine at WR2. Good chance you'll be better than fine. My only potential concern was the first few games, but even that may not be an issue.

I like Achane a lot from a talent perspective. Do you think he'll get material year one touches in that crowded backfield though? He is definitely a guy I'm looking at late.

DB - I think Achane is more explosive and faster than Raheem Mostert.  I also expect him to be a very viable pass catcher out of the backfield.  He does have a shoulder injury so he may be out for rest of preseason which could impact early season touches.  Great point.

Given my strength at RB, he may be who I sacrifice for LaPorta.

Quote from: Philosophers on August 20, 2023, 05:54:53 PMDB - I think Achane is more explosive and faster than Raheem Mostert.  I also expect him to be a very viable pass catcher out of the backfield.  He does have a shoulder injury so he may be out for rest of preseason which could impact early season touches.  Great point.

Given my strength at RB, he may be who I sacrifice for LaPorta.

Agree about Mostert. Mostert is 31 now, plus he always ends up getting hurt. If I'm an Achane owner, I'm not that worried about Mostert after the first small handful of games.

They do have Jeff Wilson Jr though, Miles Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed. Obvioulsy none of those guys are the second coming of Marshall Faulk, but it's a crowded room. I have no doubt that Achane is the most talented of those guys by a lot, but it may take him a handful of weeks to earn even a 50% total work share.

Mostert has only had one year in the league where he missed no games, and he came in in 2015.

Question to everyone:

What do you think of Trevor Lawrence this year?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 20, 2023, 06:06:22 PMQuestion to everyone:

What do you think of Trevor Lawrence this year?

Lawrence made a huge leap in his first year in the new system.  Every throwing stat was markedly better.  I've got to think it will improve again though maybe not as much.  My problem with him is that I want a QB who runs more.  When I think of TL he reminds me of a younger, more talented Jared Goff.  Similar production last year I think.

If yiu are looking for a player who makes a huge leap in production, I think did that already so more marginally better IMHO.

Do you like his skilled position players?

Quote from: Philosophers on August 20, 2023, 06:32:01 PMLawrence made a huge leap in his first year in the new system.  Every throwing stat was markedly better.  I've got to think it will improve again though maybe not as much.  My problem with him is that I want a QB who runs more.  When I think of TL he reminds me of a younger, more talented Jared Goff.  Similar production last year I think.

If yiu are looking for a player who makes a huge leap in production, I think did that already so more marginally better IMHO.

Do you like his skilled position players?

I think getting Ridley could be meaningful.. apart from that I think he has solid but not great skill guys. Kirk isn't bad, but he's not exceptional in any way. Same thing with Engram. Etienne is a very skilled player who is a big help to Lawrence. I think he was part of the reason for Lawrence's big improvement last year. Obviously the coaching change was a huge reason too.

I guess when I look at Lawrence and kind of the macro view of him, I see a QB who had an elite level billing coming into the league and struggled mightily in year one, only to get significantly better in year two. Like you, I suspect that process will continue this year. By how much, I don't know. What I will say though is Josh Allen had a crappy year in year one, and he made a meaningful step forward in year two. Lawrence's 2022 was decisively better than Allen's second year. So I'd like to think Lawrence has a chance (not a guarantee obviously) of making the jump to Pro Bowl level production this year, potentially. He has all the tools to be great.

As to his rushing, fair enough, but he gets more with his feet than some QBs. 300-ish rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs isn't that bad at all if it's someone who throws for 4500-plus yards and 30-plus TDs. So I guess we'll see if he's capable of that.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 20, 2023, 06:41:39 PMI think getting Ridley could be meaningful.. apart from that I think he has solid but not great skill guys. Kirk isn't bad, but he's not exceptional in any way. Same thing with Engram. Etienne is a very skilled player who is a big help to Lawrence. I think he was part of the reason for Lawrence's big improvement last year. Obviously the coaching change was a huge reason too.

I guess when I look at Lawrence and kind of the macro view of him, I see a QB who had an elite level billing coming into the league and struggled mightily in year one, only to get significantly better in year two. Like you, I suspect that process will continue this year. By how much, I don't know. What I will say though is Josh Allen had a crappy year in year one, and he made a meaningful step forward in year two. Lawrence's 2022 was decisively better than Allen's second year. So I'd like to think Lawrence has a chance (not a guarantee obviously) of making the jump to Pro Bowl level production this year, potentially. He has all the tools to be great.

As to his rushing, fair enough, but he gets more with his feet than some QBs. 300-ish rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs isn't that bad at all if it's someone who throws for 4500-plus yards and 30-plus TDs. So I guess we'll see if he's capable of that.

Dave - I am completely coming around to your positive view of Trevor Lawrence.  For one, I dont think there is any risk of him regressing.  Second, he's a big bodied QB so I think he will hold up for 17 games.  Third, he is a sneaky runner.  He may not rush for 800 yards, but he will break for an endzone.

I think my negative view was colored by the fact that I viewed him as the 2nd coming of Andrew Luck.  Unfortunately Urban Meyer coached him and hurt his development however now with a top flight HC, he showed his talent in that first year under Coach Doug.

Grab him.

Quote from: Philosophers on August 21, 2023, 02:16:23 PMDave - I am completely coming around to your positive view of Trevor Lawrence.  For one, I dont think there is any risk of him regressing.  Second, he's a big bodied QB so I think he will hold up for 17 games.  Third, he is a sneaky runner.  He may not rush for 800 yards, but he will break for an endzone.

I think my negative view was colored by the fact that I viewed him as the 2nd coming of Andrew Luck.  Unfortunately Urban Meyer coached him and hurt his development however now with a top flight HC, he showed his talent in that first year under Coach Doug.

Grab him.

Phil-

Love the endorsement. Good to hear.

See I'm picking 12th in a 12 team snake league, and I'm in a league where passing TDs are 6 points. Also, we have this stupid bonus system where you get a 5 point bonus if your QB gets 300 passing yards. QBs get taken early and often in my league, and it's important to have a good one.

I have two choices: I can go QB with the 12th or 13th pick overall and maybe get either Mahomes or Allen.

Or I can wait until the 3/4 turn, and just take the best available. If I do that, not only will Mahomes and Allen be gone, but I think Hurts, Burrow and Herbert will be too. Probably Lamar as well. So I'll most likely be looking at guys like Lawrence and Fields if I go in that direction. I don't really want Fields that badly because he just doesn't give you the passing yards or passing TDs that you need in my league, so my working assumption is I'll get Lawrence. I think there is an outside chance I get Herbert, but I doubt it.

I could just take a QB with one of my first two picks, but then I'm really sacrificing the chance to get an elite RB or WR. Since those positions drop off faster than QB, and since I need to start multiple ones of those each week versus just one QB, I'm inclined to wait until the 3/4.

If I were in a league with more traditional QB scoring, I'd wait later than that, but my league is very QB-centric. You can't mess around too much with that position.

I'm in a snake league, never did  fantasy before.  QBs get 4 points for TDs.  Should I put off taking a QB until later or look for a QB who can run earlier?  There are 12 people in this.  I pick 2nd

Quote from: nb587 on August 21, 2023, 03:16:52 PMI'm in a snake league, never did  fantasy before.  QBs get 4 points for TDs.  Should I put off taking a QB until later or look for a QB who can run earlier?  There are 12 people in this.  I pick 2nd

IMHO I would put off QB until at least the 5th round, and you can most likely wait until the 7th or so.

As discussed earlier, my league is weird, but in a normal league like yours, QBs are abundant, and (all things equal) running QBs tend to be underdrafted.

You can't have a precise set formula for a fantasy draft, because you never know exactly how it's going to go, but generally speaking loading up on RBs and WRs in the earlier part of the draft is advisable, as those positions dwindle faster than QB usually.

Tight end is tricky. It's really nice to have a top tight end. This thread seems to be favoring Waller, and I don't think it's just homerism because his ADP is going up nationally.

Assuming Justin Jefferson goes first, you'll have to decide between Jamarr Chase and Christian McCaffrey. If it were I, I would take Chase, but there is certainly a strong argument to go with McCaffrey.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 21, 2023, 02:27:08 PMPhil-

Love the endorsement. Good to hear.

See I'm picking 12th in a 12 team snake league, and I'm in a league where passing TDs are 6 points. Also, we have this stupid bonus system where you get a 5 point bonus if your QB gets 300 passing yards. QBs get taken early and often in my league, and it's important to have a good one.

I have two choices: I can go QB with the 12th or 13th pick overall and maybe get either Mahomes or Allen.

Or I can wait until the 3/4 turn, and just take the best available. If I do that, not only will Mahomes and Allen be gone, but I think Hurts, Burrow and Herbert will be too. Probably Lamar as well. So I'll most likely be looking at guys like Lawrence and Fields if I go in that direction. I don't really want Fields that badly because he just doesn't give you the passing yards or passing TDs that you need in my league, so my working assumption is I'll get Lawrence. I think there is an outside chance I get Herbert, but I doubt it.

I could just take a QB with one of my first two picks, but then I'm really sacrificing the chance to get an elite RB or WR. Since those positions drop off faster than QB, and since I need to start multiple ones of those each week versus just one QB, I'm inclined to wait until the 3/4.

If I were in a league with more traditional QB scoring, I'd wait later than that, but my league is very QB-centric. You can't mess around too much with that position.

Dave - what are your thoughts for your fantasy league of Aaron Rodgers?  If the Jets OL holds up, I can see him throwing for 4,000 yards and 36+ TDs.

Also consider Tua.  Sacked only 21 times, great playmakers and now entering 3rd season.

Quote from: Philosophers on August 21, 2023, 03:46:55 PMDave - what are your thoughts for your fantasy league of Aaron Rodgers?  If the Jets OL holds up, I can see him throwing for 4,000 yards and 36+ TDs.

Also consider Tua.  Sacked only 21 times, great playmakers and now entering 3rd season.

Neither is high on my target list but I don't disagree with any of your points.

The Jets' O line does worry me though, and Rodgers wasn't very good last year. I could see him blowing up this year, but there is risk with the pick IMO.

Tua should be a huge fantasy points per game guy but he just never stays on the field, and people question whether his career can continue if he gets concussed again.

Think both are good picks relative to the price, but I'd want a dependable solid backup like Goff or Cousins if I took one of those.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 21, 2023, 03:40:46 PMIMHO I would put off QB until at least the 5th round, and you can most likely wait until the 7th or so.

As discussed earlier, my league is weird, but in a normal league like yours, QBs are abundant, and (all things equal) running QBs tend to be underdrafted.

You can't have a precise set formula for a fantasy draft, because you never know exactly how it's going to go, but generally speaking loading up on RBs and WRs in the earlier part of the draft is advisable, as those positions dwindle faster than QB usually.

Tight end is tricky. It's really nice to have a top tight end. This thread seems to be favoring Waller, and I don't think it's just homerism because his ADP is going up nationally.

Assuming Justin Jefferson goes first, you'll have to decide between Jamarr Chase and Christian McCaffrey. If it were I, I would take Chase, but there is certainly a strong argument to go with McCaffrey.


[/quote

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 21, 2023, 03:40:46 PMIMHO I would put off QB until at least the 5th round, and you can most likely wait until the 7th or so.

As discussed earlier, my league is weird, but in a normal league like yours, QBs are abundant, and (all things equal) running QBs tend to be underdrafted.

You can't have a precise set formula for a fantasy draft, because you never know exactly how it's going to go, but generally speaking loading up on RBs and WRs in the earlier part of the draft is advisable, as those positions dwindle faster than QB usually.

Tight end is tricky. It's really nice to have a top tight end. This thread seems to be favoring Waller, and I don't think it's just homerism because his ADP is going up nationally.

Assuming Justin Jefferson goes first, you'll have to decide between Jamarr Chase and Christian McCaffrey. If it were I, I would take Chase, but there is certainly a strong argument to go with McCaffrey.

Thanks DB.  I go back and forth between McCaffrey and Chase, changed my mind several times. 

Woukd kicker follow QB and then Defense?  Or, see whose available, i,e Ravens kicker?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 21, 2023, 03:50:18 PMNeither is high on my target list but I don't disagree with any of your points.

The Jets' O line does worry me though, and Rodgers wasn't very good last year. I could see him blowing up this year, but there is risk with the pick IMO.

Tua should be a huge fantasy points per game guy but he just never stays on the field, and people question whether his career can continue if he gets concussed again.

Think both are good picks relative to the price, but I'd want a dependable solid backup like Goff or Cousins if I took one of those.

I'm wary of Rodgers because of the OL and he hasn't been great in awhile...and I don't think every great QB holds up like Brady did.  I'm also really wary of Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. I think they'll both wind up over-drafted, again because of the OL, and I'm going to let someone else roll the dice on those guys this year.

Quote from: nb587 on August 21, 2023, 03:16:52 PMI'm in a snake league, never did  fantasy before.  QBs get 4 points for TDs.  Should I put off taking a QB until later or look for a QB who can run earlier?  There are 12 people in this.  I pick 2nd

Personally I'd wait for a Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff.  Also at that #2 pick pay close attention to who the guy at #1 is drafting- he will wind up with 2 picks that are sandwiched between yours- of ten times at that 2 spot (and the 11 spot) you can predict what position will be available for the 2nd of your two picks each time around.  ie, if the guy at #1 loads up on WRs early you can predict later that he'll grab RBs, so you'd want to pick a RB in the slot right before he gets two cracks at it...and save a WR for your 2nd pick in the batch.  Hope that makes sense, it can be tricky if you've not ever done it before.

Quote from: nb587 on August 21, 2023, 04:26:12 PMThanks DB.  I go back and forth between McCaffrey and Chase, changed my mind several times. 

Woukd kicker follow QB and then Defense?  Or, see whose available, i,e Ravens kicker?

I tend to draft kicker in the 15th or 16th (last) round in my league. I just get a guy ideally in a dome and/or on a good offense and don't think a great deal about it. If you don't like your kicker you can always get a new one.

With defenses, I like defenses that get a lot of pressure on the QB because they tend to get not only sacks but turnovers. With defenses, schedule is very important too. When in doubt take a D that is facing bad offenses to start out the season. If you don't like your D you can always cut them and pick up someone else. Since there are 32 defenses and only 10 or 12 teams in most leagues, they're not that hard to come by week to week (albeit some teams in your league may carry more than one D at a time). I made it to the finals in my league one year without having the same D for more than 3 games. I just streamed them based on the matchup. I think it's fine to take a D as early as the 11th or 12th round if you feel strongly about it, but I wouldn't pass on a high upside RB or WR or TE in favor of a D personally. I'd just wait until the next round myself. Others here may disagree, but that is just my two cents. I sometimes see people drafting defenses in as early as the 9th round or so and in my opinion that's a mistake. They'll pass on high upside guys like Smith-Njigba to get the 9ers D. A lot of times, by midway through the season, those teams will have a different D on their roster and then meanwhile Smith-Njigba is the next Amon-Ra St. Brown.

What I do recommend with Ds is picking one up the week before it has a plum matchup, if you can. Especially if something like two of its next three matchups are easy.

I guarantee you there will be undrafted defenses in your league that end up being well into the top 10 defenses. Happens every year.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 21, 2023, 03:50:18 PMNeither is high on my target list but I don't disagree with any of your points.

The Jets' O line does worry me though, and Rodgers wasn't very good last year. I could see him blowing up this year, but there is risk with the pick IMO.

Tua should be a huge fantasy points per game guy but he just never stays on the field, and people question whether his career can continue if he gets concussed again.

Think both are good picks relative to the price, but I'd want a dependable solid backup like Goff or Cousins if I took one of those.

All fair points.  I can't disagree.

Cousins or Goff would be very good.

As you and PSU, it's all about matchups that week. 

Quote from: Philosophers on August 21, 2023, 06:13:38 PMAll fair points.  I can't disagree.

Cousins or Goff would be very good.

As you and PSU, it's all about matchups that week. 

Very much so.

BTW there is definitely a scenario where A-Rod crushes it this year. It's certainly not out of the realm. I just would want some insurance with him is all.

Same with Tua. I actually had Tua last year as my backup to Burrow. I started Tua one week over Burrow when Burrow was in a tough game and Chase was injured. In the right matchup he can light it up with the weapons he has. He just can't be trusted to stay on the field for an extended period of time. And as you know it was no different with him at Alabama.

Question to my fantasy football brothers.

This is my first time playing in two different leagues.  One was an auction draft.  Second is an upcoming snake draft.  If you have played in multiple drafts, do you try to still target your same players or do you try to draft a different team and players?  I am leaning toward different players and strategy.  Thoughts?

Quote from: Philosophers on August 25, 2023, 01:07:52 PMQuestion to my fantasy football brothers.

This is my first time playing in two different leagues.  One was an auction draft.  Second is an upcoming snake draft.  If you have played in multiple drafts, do you try to still target your same players or do you try to draft a different team and players?  I am leaning toward different players and strategy.  Thoughts?

Great question.

When I have done multiple leagues in the past (I don't know), I have tended to target the same 3-4 guys I really like. That didn't mean I'd necessarily get them on both teams, and no matter what in the end the two teams always looked different, but I am really keen on a small handful of players I'm trying to target them in any league I'm in. As mentioned before, with the way these drafts go, the two teams are going to look different in the end regardless. So if you happen to be say very high on Smith-Njigba and Dalton Kincaid, I see nothing wrong with attempting to get both of them in both leagues. Just my opinion obviously.

On a totally separate note just while I am in this thread: I have noticed recently (and noticed it last year too) that Jaylen Warren on the Steelers consistently puts up better rushing efficiency numbers than Najee Harris. Najee is still the clear RB1 there, but I could see them giving a significantly bigger allocation of touches to Warren this year than he had in 2022. In Najee's first two seasons he has never averaged even 4.0 YPC, and last year Warren averaged 4.9. And Warren has looked way better in the preseason this year. He's also a good pass catcher (albeit so is Najee). I'm now trying to get him as my RB4 or RB5 late in the draft. Pitt runs the ball plenty, and even if Najee never gets hurt, I could see Warren getting enough work this year that he could be an OK start if I ever get into trouble with injuries or byes.

Question for the thread:

How would you rank the following receivers for just 2023? Ideally from a PPR point of view.

AJ Brown
CeeDee Lamb
Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 27, 2023, 01:24:57 PMQuestion for the thread:

How would you rank the following receivers for just 2023? Ideally from a PPR point of view.

AJ Brown
CeeDee Lamb
Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave

I had CeeDee Lamb last year to much success.  It taught me something.  I picked him because I thought he was good and by far the top WR on Dallas which meant lots of opportunities.  My preference is I think a good WR who clearly stands out as WR1 for all the opps he will get from his QB and quality if the QB.  Given that, here is my ranking:

Garrett Wilson - great WR1 and great QB
Amon-Ra St. Brown - great WR1/good QB
CeeDee Lamb - good, sole WR1/good QB
AJ Brown - great WR but too many options
Chris Olave - good WR returning Thimas and new QB

This is only for fantasy and points, not who I think is the best WR among them.

Quote from: Philosophers on August 27, 2023, 03:09:17 PMI had CeeDee Lamb last year to much success.  It taught me something.  I picked him because I thought he was good and by far the top WR on Dallas which meant lots of opportunities.  My preference is I think a good WR who clearly stands out as WR1 for all the opps he will get from his QB and quality if the QB.  Given that, here is my ranking:

Garrett Wilson - great WR1 and great QB
Amon-Ra St. Brown - great WR1/good QB
CeeDee Lamb - good, sole WR1/good QB
AJ Brown - great WR but too many options
Chris Olave - good WR returning Thimas and new QB

This is only for fantasy and points, not who I think is the best WR among them.

Yes - this is purely a fantasy discussion. Not who is the best in real life.

We're not far off in our rankings. I like Lamb a lot myself. He might be number one in this group for me. He's only 24 so likely still in an upward slope, the guy basically doesn't ever miss games, and he has been good from day one but has gotten steadily better.

Everyone loves Amon-Ra, and I don't disagree. I just have a couple of question marks with him:

(1) When Jameson Williams back, unless they play on throwing a hell of a lot more or barely targeting Williams at all, Amon-Ra's target share has to go down.

(2) In Amon-Ra's rookie year, he played best when TJ Hockenson was hurt. Then last year they didn't really have a tight end. Now all of a sudden they have Sam LaPorta, who supposedly they're very high on. Campbell as we know was a TE himself. I just wonder what that does to Amon-Ra's target share relative to last year.

(3) I wonder if Jamyr Gibbs ends up with a bigger pass catching role than either Swift or Jamaal Williams had.

I'm not down on St. Brown in any way. I think he's a thoroughbred talent. I just wonder if he's going to see the same target share that he did in 2022.


AJ Brown had a much better season last year than he has ever had before. I wonder if he'll be able to do that again. Maybe, but things could not have gone better for the Eagles offense than they did last year, and their defensive schedule is much, much tougher this year. I could see some regression there this year.


Wilson is an electrifying talent. I've said this before but he reminds me of a young OBJ. Except he's much less of a self-absorbed diva. His talent level looks similar to me though. I could see him being a top three fantasy receiver this year.


Olave is another guy I like. I don't put him quite on the level as some of the others listed above, but he did very well as a rookie with Andy Dalton as his QB. While Carr isn't great, I consider him better than Dalton. So Olave should be in a position to take a second year jump.


I'm trying to be careful with older receivers who are still going in the first and second round. Adams, Kupp, Diggs, etc. I'm not saying they will fall off, but 30 years old is a tricky threshold. Usually receivers fall off noticeably by 30/31. There are exceptions, but that's generally the rule. Sometimes you even see it at 29. So I'm trying to avoid those types of guys and instead get guys who are in the 23-25 range, where not only do I not have to worry about age, but they might still be getting better.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 27, 2023, 03:30:01 PMYes - this is purely a fantasy discussion. Not who is the best in real life.

We're not far off in our rankings. I like Lamb a lot myself. He might be number one in this group for me. He's only 24 so likely still in an upward slope, the guy basically doesn't ever miss games, and he has been good from day one but has gotten steadily better.

Everyone loves Amon-Ra, and I don't disagree. I just have a couple of question marks with him:

(1) When Jameson Williams back, unless they play on throwing a hell of a lot more or barely targeting Williams at all, Amon-Ra's target share has to go down.

(2) In Amon-Ra's rookie year, he played best when TJ Hockenson was hurt. Then last year they didn't really have a tight end. Now all of a sudden they have Sam LaPorta, who supposedly they're very high on. Campbell as we know was a TE himself. I just wonder what that does to Amon-Ra's target share relative to last year.

(3) I wonder if Jamyr Gibbs ends up with a bigger pass catching role than either Swift or Jamaal Williams had.

I'm not down on St. Brown in any way. I think he's a thoroughbred talent. I just wonder if he's going to see the same target share that he did in 2022.


AJ Brown had a much better season last year than he has ever had before. I wonder if he'll be able to do that again. Maybe, but things could not have gone better for the Eagles offense than they did last year, and their defensive schedule is much, much tougher this year. I could see some regression there this year.


Wilson is an electrifying talent. I've said this before but he reminds me of a young OBJ. Except he's much less of a self-absorbed diva. His talent level looks similar to me though. I could see him being a top three fantasy receiver this year.


Olave is another guy I like. I don't put him quite on the level as some of the others listed above, but he did very well as a rookie with Andy Dalton as his QB. While Carr isn't great, I consider him better than Dalton. So Olave should be in a position to take a second year jump.


I'm trying to be careful with older receivers who are still going in the first and second round. Adams, Kupp, Diggs, etc. I'm not saying they will fall off, but 30 years old is a tricky threshold. Usually receivers fall off noticeably by 30/31. There are exceptions, but that's generally the rule. Sometimes you even see it at 29. So I'm trying to avoid those types of guys and instead get guys who are in the 23-25 range, where not only do I not have to worry about age, but they might still be getting better.

Dave - I dont think sam Laporta will be better this year than TJ was as a Lion so i believe that risk is minimal.

I like Chris olave a lot but now you have Michael Thomas returning and he has been a beast.  Got to think Olave may be affected by that.

Quote from: Philosophers on August 27, 2023, 06:24:06 PMDave - I dont think sam Laporta will be better this year than TJ was as a Lion so i believe that risk is minimal.

I like Chris olave a lot but now you have Michael Thomas returning and he has been a beast.  Got to think Olave may be affected by that.

Good point about Michael Thomas.. I agree that that could impact Olave.

Fair on LaPorta. I don't think he'll be better than 2021 Hockenson as a rookie either, but I feel like he's a guy who over the course of the season will integrated more and more. Last year there wasn't really much of any TE presence. Tack on Gibbs all year and Jameson Williams for the final 2/3 of the year or so and St. Brown has a lot of competition, even though he's the number one option.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 27, 2023, 07:07:37 PMGood point about Michael Thomas.. I agree that that could impact Olave.

Fair on LaPorta. I don't think he'll be better than 2021 Hockenson as a rookie either, but I feel like he's a guy who over the course of the season will integrated more and more. Last year there wasn't really much of any TE presence. Tack on Gibbs all year and Jameson Williams for the final 2/3 of the year or so and St. Brown has a lot of competition, even though he's the number one option.

Jameson Williams seemed destined to be JaMar Chase out of college but he's doing everything possible to be a wasted draft pick.  Now with this gambling suspension after a lost year due to ACL surgery, he may or may not be a factor.  I'd stay with Amon

This is the roster I drafted in a ten man league last night. It was rated the 3rd best in our league - any thoughts?

QB Allen
Ekler
Pollard
Ridley
Metcalf
Evan Engram
Stevenson
Gano
Eagles D

Bench
Purdy
Charbonnet
Dalvin Cook
Bradin Cooks
Toney
Njoku

I picked 5th out of ten, I was also had a few beers during the day but I'm not too disappointed how it turned out.

Quote from: EDjohnst1981 on August 28, 2023, 07:42:36 AMThis is the roster I drafted in a ten man league last night. It was rated the 3rd best in our league - any thoughts?

QB Allen
Ekler
Pollard
Ridley
Metcalf
Evan Engram
Stevenson
Gano
Eagles D

Bench
Purdy
Charbonnet
Dalvin Cook
Bradin Cooks
Toney
Njoku

I picked 5th out of ten, I was also had a few beers during the day but I'm not too disappointed how it turned out.

Looks good. If I were going to give one gripe, I'd say you're maybe one player too loaded at RB at the expense of WR depth.

Good point, DB.

I generally play an RB at the Flex position anyway but yeah, if an injury occurs I'm in a slight pickle.

Quote from: EDjohnst1981 on August 28, 2023, 08:47:27 AMGood point, DB.

I generally play an RB at the Flex position anyway but yeah, if an injury occurs I'm in a slight pickle.

How come you play RB in the flex? Is your league standard scoring (ie not PPR)?

Dave - so last night I did my second fantasy draft for this season which was a snake draft.  I must say I prefer $200 auctions to snake formats.

QBs - Joe Burrow and Tua Tagliovoa

RBs - Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Devon Achane and Tyjae Spears

WRs - Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Jaxon Smith Njigba, Michael Thomas, Zay Flowers and Jonathan Mingo

TEs - Darren Waller, Dalton Kincaid

Kicker - Evan Mcpheraon

D - Saints

My likes:

I think I have good players across all positions.

Gamble which may not pay off - taking Michael Thomas.  Is he really past far past his prime?

Concern - after Saquon and James Cook, I have 2 rookies who have not been established as starters.  I am betting Derrick Henry misses some games or they really resuce his workload maybe on 3rd down.

Concern - is James Cook enough of a WR2 or do I have to hope for Achane to have more impact?

Quote from: Philosophers on August 28, 2023, 12:26:09 PMDave - so last night I did my second fantasy draft for this season which was a snake draft.  I must say I prefer $200 auctions to snake formats.

QBs - Joe Burrow and Tua Tagliovoa

RBs - Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Devon Achane and Tyjae Spears

WRs - Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Jaxon Smith Njigba, Michael Thomas, Zay Flowers and Jonathan Mingo

TEs - Darren Waller, Dalton Kincaid

Kicker - Evan Mcpheraon

D - Saints

My likes:

I think I have good players across all positions.

Gamble which may not pay off - taking Michael Thomas.  Is he really past far past his prime?

Concern - after Saquon and James Cook, I have 2 rookies who have not been established as starters.  I am betting Derrick Henry misses some games or they really resuce his workload maybe on 3rd down.

Concern - is James Cook enough of a WR2 or do I have to hope for Achane to have more impact?

Love this team. Great combo of high floor and significant upside.

So our big auction draft was last weekend....  $200 base (we are able to trade for auction dollars so I actually started with $212).  I had two keepers- Amon-Ra at $0 (last year I can keep him) and Pollard at $25.  Here is where my money went:

QB:
Daniel Jones - $8
Kenny Pickett - $0

RB:
Tony Pollard - $25
Derrick Henry - $52
Rashaad Penny - $2
Tyjae Spears - $5
Jaylen Warren - $10
Kareem Hunt - $1  (my last pick...really hoping to hear JT traded to Miami and Colts signing Kareem now)

WR:
Amon Ra - $0
Stefon Diggs - $49
T McLaurin - $20
Gabe Davis - $10
Quentin Johnston - $9

TE:
Darren Waller - $18

My own reaction- I like my team...only thing that went wrong in my draft was I was targeting D Pierce or K Walker as my RB3 but they got bid up to $35 each which was higher than I expected so I had to back off.  Other slight misstep is I like Keenan Allen better than McLaurin and they both went for $20....I picked up McLaurin assuming Allen would go higher later...ah well.

So, until either Hunt, Warren, or Penny step up a bit I'm hurting at my RB3 slot but other than that feel pretty good!  Let's gooooooo!!!

Quote from: PSUBeirut on August 29, 2023, 01:26:04 PMSo our big auction draft was last weekend....  $200 base (we are able to trade for auction dollars so I actually started with $212).  I had two keepers- Amon-Ra at $0 (last year I can keep him) and Pollard at $25.  Here is where my money went:

QB:
Daniel Jones - $8
Kenny Pickett - $0

RB:
Tony Pollard - $25
Derrick Henry - $52
Rashaad Penny - $2
Tyjae Spears - $5
Jaylen Warren - $10
Kareem Hunt - $1  (my last pick...really hoping to hear JT traded to Miami and Colts signing Kareem now)

WR:
Amon Ra - $0
Stefon Diggs - $49
T McLaurin - $20
Gabe Davis - $10
Quentin Johnston - $9

TE:
Darren Waller - $18

My own reaction- I like my team...only thing that went wrong in my draft was I was targeting D Pierce or K Walker as my RB3 but they got bid up to $35 each which was higher than I expected so I had to back off.  Other slight misstep is I like Keenan Allen better than McLaurin and they both went for $20....I picked up McLaurin assuming Allen would go higher later...ah well.

So, until either Hunt, Warren, or Penny step up a bit I'm hurting at my RB3 slot but other than that feel pretty good!  Let's gooooooo!!!

First off, great job last year to now be in a position to keep Pollard and St. Brown. Those were both league-winning type picks last year.

I think you're correct to feel very good about your team. I don't see any weak spots. People around your league will probably think you're being a homer with Jones, but I think the odds favor him having a very good fantasy season, certainly relative to ADP. So I like that pick plenty.

I love Jaylen Warren. Unfortunately he has flown up the CBS rankings, which is where my league is housed. People are taking him in the 9th round now. He was a 13th or 14th rounder a couple weeks ago. I'm drafting 12th in a 12 team league, and there is zero chance I take him on the 7/8 turn, so unless he makes it to me at 9/10 I'm not going to get him. Annoying as I really like him. I think he's better than Najee Harris. I just don't know that he will fully supplant him this season. If I felt confident that he would, I would have no problem drafting him in the 7/8, or earlier.

Also love the Quentin Johnston pick. That offense is going to throw it a ton again, and Mike Williams never quite puts it all together. Meanwhile Keenan Allen is getting to an age threshold where his ability to separate might start to tail off a little. I could see Johnston thriving this year. He has both the ability to get open deep AND make plays after the catch. I could see Herbert really loving him.

What's the latest on McLaurin's toe? I read that he is in real jeopardy of missing regular season time.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on August 29, 2023, 02:07:28 PMFirst off, great job last year to now be in a position to keep Pollard and St. Brown. Those were both league-winning type picks last year.

I think you're correct to feel very good about your team. I don't see any weak spots. People around your league will probably think you're being a homer with Jones, but I think the odds favor him having a very good fantasy season, certainly relative to ADP. So I like that pick plenty.

I love Jaylen Warren. Unfortunately he has flown up the CBS rankings, which is where my league is housed. People are taking him in the 9th round now. He was a 13th or 14th rounder a couple weeks ago. I'm drafting 12th in a 12 team league, and there is zero chance I take him on the 7/8 turn, so unless he makes it to me at 9/10 I'm not going to get him. Annoying as I really like him. I think he's better than Najee Harris. I just don't know that he will fully supplant him this season. If I felt confident that he would, I would have no problem drafting him in the 7/8, or earlier.

Also love the Quentin Johnston pick. That offense is going to throw it a ton again, and Mike Williams never quite puts it all together. Meanwhile Keenan Allen is getting to an age threshold where his ability to separate might start to tail off a little. I could see Johnston thriving this year. He has both the ability to get open deep AND make plays after the catch. I could see Herbert really loving him.

What's the latest on McLaurin's toe? I read that he is in real jeopardy of missing regular season time.

I lime your team though my potential concern would be at QB as I think to win in league you need a 280+ points with some combo of 30+ TDs/3,500 yards + passing yards with an offset for rushing TDs/yards.  That assumes a significant leap for DJ or Pickett.  I think DJ has it in him and skill players but OL work in progress may be the stress point.

You are strong at WR and Johnston pick is nice upside for low cost move.

Good job drafting

Trevor Lawrence
Travis Etienne
James Conner
Stefon Diggs
Davante Adams
Calvin Ridley
Pat Friermuth
Deebo Samuel
Bills D/ST
Harrison Butker

Daniel Jones
Isiah Pacheco
Alvin Kamara
Quentin Johnston
Michael Pittman
Kyle Pitts

8 Man League Half PPR

My team name is Jags In A Box

Quote from: True Blue on August 29, 2023, 09:51:57 PMTrevor Lawrence
Travis Etienne
James Conner
Stefon Diggs
Davante Adams
Calvin Ridley
Pat Friermuth
Deebo Samuel
Bills D/ST
Harrison Butker

Daniel Jones
Isiah Pacheco
Alvin Kamara
Quentin Johnston
Michael Pittman
Kyle Pitts

8 Man League Half PPR

My team name is Jags In A Box

I like that you have Pitts but have a safe alternative in Freiermuth. I am very tempted to draft Pitts this year. I know he's risky but you can get him in the 6th round. Last year was more of a 2nd/3rd round guy. He's still incredibly young. His physical gifts are ridiculous.

What are later round RBs you guys like, if any? I normally draft 5 RBs total, so I usually am taking at least one in the 10th round or later.

Guys I'm interested in for that pick (not really in any order):


Jaylen Warren: I think he's better than Najee Harris and could end up with an equal workshare this year. I feel like they have a Pollard/Zeke type situation there.

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell is a solid player, and I have zero trust in either DeAndre Swift or Rashard Penny to stay healthy all year. Come later in the season when bye weeks kick in, I think there will be multiple weeks where Gainwell will be a good start. If just one of those guys is out I think he will be.

Tank Bigsby: If nothing else I think this guy will get goalline work, and as good as Etienne may be, he has proven to be an injury worry. Bigsby seems pretty solid, so I think he'll get a reasonable amount of touches even with Etienne healthy. And if Etienne goes down there is little else there.

Deuce Vaughn: This guy is diminutive, but he is absolutely electric. Looks like another Sprouls type. I could see him being on the field when Pollard is on. Kind of a wildcard pick but you can get him really late.

Tyjae Spears: People have been raving about this guy's talent. At Henry's age I could see them conserving his touches a little.



Anyone you guys like or anything you disagree with above? I will probably need to draft at least one of these.

Late Round RBs - here's a few that can be had in the last round in some leagues,
- Raheem Mostert. He is in a time share but is expected to be the starter. When he's healthy he is fantastic. Unfortunately staying healthy has been his issue, and it is the same with his backfield mate Jeff Wilson Jr. When one gets hurt, the other is going to be valuable.....until HE gets hurt.  :'(

- D'Onte Foreman. No one knows what the timeshare in Chicago is going to look like but Herbert is expected to get most of the work. Foreman may still get 12-15 touches per game and could be the preferred goal line back. If Herbert goes down, b=he showed in Carolina that he can handle a bigger work load.

- Rashad Penny. There are a lot of mouths to feed in that Philadelphia backfield, but I expect Penny to emerge as the 1st and 2nd down back. In mock drafts I've gotten him as late as the 12th round in 12 team leagues.

- Zach Moss and Deonte Jackson. One of these guys is going to be the beneficiary of the Jonathan Taylor mess in Indianapolis. With a rookie QB it makes sense that they will want to run the ball as much as they can while Richardson learns how to be productive in this Offense.   

I drafted Quentin Johnston for a situation like this, and have the top waiver to grab Achane.

Looking pretty good right now after a big win. I don't expect that from Achane, but I think he can still get 10-15 points in a given week, and then potentially explode if Mostert (when really) gets hurt.

I have Achane (drafted him), but I didn't have him in yest! Killer.

Christian Watson was a brutal pick by me. Took him in the third round. Hasn't played yet. I was bullish on him as he tore it up down the stretch last year as a rookie. Hopefully he comes back soon.

Someone cut Dalton Kincaid in my league. I realize he hasn't done much as of yet, but I could see him developing a bigger role as the year goes on. Want to try to get him.

Josh Palmer and Rashee Rice are both available in my league. I'm only 9th on the wire list this year, but think both are worth grabbing. Mike Williams looks likely done for the season.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on September 25, 2023, 12:56:27 PMI have Achane (drafted him), but I didn't have him in yest! Killer.

Christian Watson was a brutal pick by me. Took him in the third round. Hasn't played yet. I was bullish on him as he tore it up down the stretch last year as a rookie. Hopefully he comes back soon.

Someone cut Dalton Kincaid in my league. I realize he hasn't done much as of yet, but I could see him developing a bigger role as the year goes on. Want to try to get him.

Josh Palmer and Rashee Rice are both available in my league. I'm only 9th on the wire list this year, but think both are worth grabbing. Mike Williams looks likely done for the season.

I had Achane on my bench as well. Obviously can't kick ourselves over that because who saw that coming from the Dolphins? I did have Davante Adams, which lessened the blow a bit of having a 50 point player on my bench.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on September 25, 2023, 12:56:27 PMI have Achane (drafted him), but I didn't have him in yest! Killer.

Christian Watson was a brutal pick by me. Took him in the third round. Hasn't played yet. I was bullish on him as he tore it up down the stretch last year as a rookie. Hopefully he comes back soon.

Someone cut Dalton Kincaid in my league. I realize he hasn't done much as of yet, but I could see him developing a bigger role as the year goes on. Want to try to get him.

Josh Palmer and Rashee Rice are both available in my league. I'm only 9th on the wire list this year, but think both are worth grabbing. Mike Williams looks likely done for the season.

Williams tore his ACL and confirmed done for the year, he is worth a pickup for sure. I went with Johnston due to the draft profile, will be interesting to see how snaps and targets play out for them both.

Quote from: jgrangers2 on September 25, 2023, 01:05:26 PMI had Achane on my bench as well. Obviously can't kick ourselves over that because who saw that coming from the Dolphins? I did have Davante Adams, which lessened the blow a bit of having a 50 point player on my bench.

Davante, Bill D/ST and Deebo carried me this week, Lawrence and Ridley stunk it up so I got lucky and those guys bailed me out.

Quote from: jgrangers2 on September 25, 2023, 01:05:26 PMI had Achane on my bench as well. Obviously can't kick ourselves over that because who saw that coming from the Dolphins? I did have Davante Adams, which lessened the blow a bit of having a 50 point player on my bench.

Ha I had Achane on my bench.  I have Spears too but he is not getting carries.

Agree with JG that we can't beat ourselves up about Achane. At least it was only week three and now we have a viable starter.

I doubt he'll ever have a game like that again though.

I could use some help on this.  I have Lawrence who has been disappointing and could switch to Tua.  Should I switch?  I have Ridley (disappointing) and Zay Flowers.  He replaced Waddle who is on the bench with McLaurin and Jeudy.  Which 2 should start?  Last, Mark Andrews or Hockinson at TE?

Quote from: nb587 on September 25, 2023, 07:44:16 PMI could use some help on this.  I have Lawrence who has been disappointing and could switch to Tua.  Should I switch?  I have Ridley (disappointing) and Zay Flowers.  He replaced Waddle who is on the bench with McLaurin and Jeudy.  Which 2 should start?  Last, Mark Andrews or Hockinson at TE?

I am starting Tua over Watson since week 2. Yes you should start Tua. His offense scored 70 points without Waddle. Trade Lawrence after the Phins bye week.

Just checking in on folks to see how you've been doing, if you made the playoffs, how your teams are looking. 

The team I had above is the 4 seed in the playoffs and I just had a MONSTER week to move on.  Since the start of the year I made a couple good moves- 1) picked up Kyren Williams, 2) after the first 6 games or so I traded Derrick Henry for Deebo, 3) I picked up Trey McBride when Waller went out, 4) I picked up a serviceable QB in Jordan Love early.

The one move I regret is I traded Tony Pollard for Justin Herbert a few weeks back and then Herbert stunk it up then went on IR so I'm back to Jordan Love. 

In the BBH league, I am hanging on by a thread of potentially winning this week (Latex Salesmen is my team)- if I win this week I get JT and Josh Jacobs back next week so I might be able to make some noise!!!

And in the last league I'm in I just got McCaffrey'd out of the playoffs.  Ah well, can't win em all. :ok:

Quote from: PSUBeirut on December 17, 2023, 09:54:44 PMJust checking in on folks to see how you've been doing, if you made the playoffs, how your teams are looking. 

The team I had above is the 4 seed in the playoffs and I just had a MONSTER week to move on.  Since the start of the year I made a couple good moves- 1) picked up Kyren Williams, 2) after the first 6 games or so I traded Derrick Henry for Deebo, 3) I picked up Trey McBride when Waller went out, 4) I picked up a serviceable QB in Jordan Love early.

The one move I regret is I traded Tony Pollard for Justin Herbert a few weeks back and then Herbert stunk it up then went on IR so I'm back to Jordan Love. 

In the BBH league, I am hanging on by a thread of potentially winning this week (Latex Salesmen is my team)- if I win this week I get JT and Josh Jacobs back next week so I might be able to make some noise!!!

And in the last league I'm in I just got McCaffrey'd out of the playoffs.  Ah well, can't win em all. :ok:

I thought I had a loaded team this year but injuries then subpar performance after has really hit me.  Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley never got going for me.  I had Garrett Wilson thinking he'd be huge with Aaron Rodgers but then Rodgers gets hurt. Also last year every decision I made was the right one.  This year they're all wrong.  I sat Achane when he put up 51 points in one game.  Ugh!

I finished 10th out of ten in my redraft. Sigh.

In my dynasty, I made the playoffs with the sixth seed but easily got rolled in the playoffs. Last season I made some major moves to secure both Hill and Chase (Chase traded away for 3 1st rounders this year). Frustrating season overall really.

After being a playoff team in (4 teams) in my 12 team league last year, I have had a frustrating year in fantasy. 80-90% my own fault. I have had a couple of unlucky things too, but it's largely on me.

Bad picks:

Christian Watson: Didn't play the first 4-5 weeks (I had no idea he was injured on draft day), struggled for weeks after coming back, was solid for a couple weeks, and is now out again. Just a train wreck of a pick on my part. He is a guy I picked up off waivers in 2022 after someone got frustrated and cut him, and he crushed it for me late last year. I felt confident he was going to have a big year this year but I was dead wrong. Picked him on the 3/4 turn in a 12 team PPR snake draft. He has been a complete bum.

Damian Pierce: Also took him on the 3-4 turn. Total dud pick. I wasn't expecting him to be great or anything, but he was the first RB I took, and I kind of needed one at that point. I figured he was pretty good as a rookie and might step up in year two and if nothing else would be a high volume guy. I was wrong. He has been pure garbage.

My league is unusual in that you get 6 points for passing TDs (most leagues are 4), so you really need to have a good QB in my league. More often than not, our league champion has a clear top 4 or 5 QB in the league. I went with Mahomes this year, and of course I got him in probably his worst year in the league. I won't call that bad luck and I obviously own the pick, but given he was coming off an MVP season with largely the same group, it wasn't obvious to me that he'd happen to struggle this year.

My best picks were Achane (although he missed a lot of games), the Browns D (they've been huge for me), and Lamb. Kincaid was also decent where I got him as I whiffed on the top tight ends.

Definitely not my best year. I made some pretty clear mistakes.

I am winning my playoff matchup in both my leagues. One team I started 0-5 to finish 6-8 and sneak into the playoffs thanks to picking up LaPorta off waivers after week one and cutting bait on Kyle The Pitts. Tyreek Hill's injury paved the way for Waddle to go off yesterday. I also grabbed Kyron Williams off waivers after week 1 and stashed him on my IR while he was out and now he is my best player. And the most unthinking move I made was betting against the Giants offense this week and going with the Saints D. Also have Dak, Mixon, Racheed White, Drake London and the Cowboys kicker.

I am also winning in my other matchup where on paper I have the best team in the league. I lead the league in scoring but also in scored against so I actually had a 7-7 record. My opponent wasn't paying attention and wound up with Keenan Allen locked on his roster Thursday night even though he was inactive. I got banner days from Racheed White, Zach Moss, Amon St. Brown, Isaiah Likely and the Rams D. Average output from Mahomes, Puka, and stinker from Derek Henry.

Yeah this has been an absolutely crazy year for injuries.  Our #1 seed in the playoffs just got knocked out because he had been riding Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen all year. 

Quote from: PSUBeirut on December 18, 2023, 10:05:04 AMYeah this has been an absolutely crazy year for injuries.  Our #1 seed in the playoffs just got knocked out because he had been riding Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen all year. 

Same happened to me last year in dynasty. I rode Mahomes, Chase and Cupp. The latter two went down toward the end of the season and after a 10-0 start. I limped into the playoffs and was one and done in the divisional around.

Infuriating.

That is why both my leagues give a payout to the #1 seed. You cannot have the best team all year, lose in your first playoff name and come away with no money.