I firmly believe the most apt comparison for Daniel Jones is Alex Smith and you can win with him. However, you won't get to where you need to be because he is too timid of a QB. This is a very deep QB class coming up. I believe the Giants should trade up for a QB. Start Jones next season and let the QB learn behind him and then move on. Or let Jones pursue a trade. That is the best way forward to build a team that can compete to win a Super Bowl.
Carl Banks, in his last podcast, called many Giants players out by name. So Banks doesn't give players a pass.
That said, Carl did call out the criticism and this very message just today.
Here is Bobby Skinner calling out Jones for leaving plays on the table (being too "timid)
https://x.com/BobbySkinner_/status/1706478264926036007?s=20
Here is someone bringing that video to Carl's attention along with Carl's response.
https://x.com/CarlBanksGIII/status/1706708312173994110?s=20
Banks and Papa contort like circus performers to excuse Jones. Papa was much harsher on Eli than he's ever been on Jones. I stand by my assessment. Other defensive coordinators see it that is why teams like Dallas and San Francisco are just killing us on these short passes that Jones throws far too often.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 26, 2023, 01:40:37 PMBanks and Papa contort like circus performers to excuse Jones. Papa was much harsher on Eli than he's ever been on Jones. I stand by my assessment. Other defensive coordinators see it that is why teams like Dallas and San Francisco are just killing us on these short passes that Jones throws far too often.
I have listened to Carl Banks for quite some time, and I don't see the contortions that you claim they were guilty of. Banks is pretty even-handed and calls it as he sees it.
I will add that far too many of the film breakdown guys, including Bobby Skinner, Dan, and Nick, are all guilty of talking with more certainty about plays than they really are. Greg Cosell is the GOAT of film breakdown people, and he will tell you that there is always a degree of uncertainty in terms of the play design and the coach's intentions.
Banks also talks to the Giants coaching staff regularly, so he has insights that are quite valuable. I can't imagine Banks is hearing comments like yours from the coaching staff, only to turn around and defend Jones from what he perceives as unfair criticism.
Like I said in another thread, once your line proves it can't protect, the QB needs to speed up his clock. You can't expect QBs to predict the rare occasions when his line will actually hold up.
We all have listened to Banks for some time. This is a guy who defended the Joe Judge staff until the very end. So he has a history of defending what shouldn't be defended. He works for the team and contorts himself to defend Jones. I trust film guys who willing to say what is obvious even when it makes the team look bad. Jones does what is safe. It may even be what is textbook. But he doesn't make the tough plays against good teams. That is as clear as night and day. The Niners were mocking him for this and knew they could just get him to throw quick to Campbell and make the tackle. Other teams know it. We need to stop pretending otherwise.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 26, 2023, 02:21:09 PMWe all have listened to Banks for some time. This is a guy who defended the Joe Judge staff until the very end. So he has a history of defending what shouldn't be defended. He works for the team and contorts himself to defend Jones. I trust film guys who willing to say what is obvious even when it makes the team look bad. Jones does what is safe. It may even be what is textbook. But he doesn't make the tough plays against good teams. That is as clear as night and day. The Niners were mocking him for this and knew they could just get him to throw quick to Campbell and make the tackle. Other teams know it. We need to stop pretending otherwise.
I explained who I believe and why I believe them (for the record, anonymous cheap-shot artists are not on my list of reliable sources). You are certainly free to believe whomever you wish.
Felato and Schneier are not cheap shot artists. Calling them that even by insinuation is pretty beyond the pale. Disagreement is fine. Character assassination is not. Critical analysis that they provide is vital for honest assessment. Listening only to those totally associated with the team is not the right way to go about things.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 26, 2023, 02:46:33 PMFelato and Schneier are not cheap shot artists. Calling them that even by insinuation is pretty beyond the pale. Disagreement is fine. Character assassination is not. Critical analysis that they provide is vital for honest assessment. Listening only to those totally associated with the team is not the right way to go about things.
The cheap shot artists are the anonymous 49ers you cited to support your views.
OK. That's fair. But you don't need the comments. You can just look at the film at how they played the Giants. They barely even paid attention to routes behind the sticks.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 26, 2023, 02:48:40 PMOK. That's fair. But you don't need the comments. You can just look at the film at how they played the Giants. They barely even paid attention to routes behind the sticks.
In fairness, deep routes take time to develop. If I was getting to the QB as quickly as the 49ers (or Dallas) was, I wouldn't be worried about the deep routes either. This is especially true when I know the Giants' defense isn't doing well either so even if by some miracle the Giants burn my defense, I know I can make up the points.
There was a deep route to Hyatt that could have been thrown with anticipation. But Jones just doesn't take chances. He goes too far to the check down. This is why he's Alex Smith. A guy you can win with under really good conditions. But not a difference-making QB.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 26, 2023, 02:47:36 PMThe cheap shot artists are the anonymous 49ers you cited to support your views.
The cheap shots about Jones's contract I get but I do think there was something to their comments about him leaning on checkdowns as a habit.
Quote from: Rambo89 on September 26, 2023, 03:25:24 PMThe cheap shots about Jones's contract I get but I do think there was something to their comments about him leaning on checkdowns as a habit.
When I talk about cheap shots, I am more referring to the ones they took on the field, like deliberately injuring DJ Davidson and sucker punching Robinson. Although I will not disagree if one wishes to characterize tossing out insults and putdowns anonymously as a cheap shot.
As for the check-downs, as I said before, I am inclined to listen to what Carl Banks said. The reality is only the coaching staff and the team know what Jones was instructed to do. It's well within the realm of possibilities that Jones was instructed when it doubt check it down, due to the coaches being concerned about the terrible O-line and not wanting to take sacks or risk fumbles or INTs.
Alex Smith was a good QB. Daniel Jones is a better QB and checkdown and caution were drilled into him the last 4 years. Tough to get it out of your head. He had a high % of accurate deep throws during his rookie season under Pat Shurmur. We all know he's been slow to process but the play call should be primary Hyatt and reads from there on some of those plays. Is it that complicated for Kafka to do that? Btw, the deep routes should be where he starts his reads and if he feels pressure he knows where his outlets are. There have been a lot of games where DJ had culpability but with a few exceptions of about a half dozen plays, this year ain't on him. Yet. And I'm sure someone will be pointing it out and it may even be me.
Now, let's look at some of these position coaches like Tierney and Johnson and question why their players are struggling so much. Daboll has some shine on him so he doesn't have to stick with who he's comfortable with from previous relationships. He stuck with continuity and I get that but at some point, there has to be consequences.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 26, 2023, 01:24:36 PMI firmly believe the most apt comparison for Daniel Jones is Alex Smith and you can win with him. However, you won't get to where you need to be because he is too timid of a QB. This is a very deep QB class coming up. I believe the Giants should trade up for a QB. Start Jones next season and let the QB learn behind him and then move on. Or let Jones pursue a trade. That is the best way forward to build a team that can compete to win a Super Bowl.
@Dgoodmantrublu I agree with your post and assessment. Alex Smith is a great comparison.
Daniel Jones is a good QB, as was Smith. Jones is a much better runner, Smith probably a slightly better passer so it about evens out. But while these guys are good QBs they limit the ceiling the team has.
I would be in favor of the approach you suggested. This lets them compete and build for another season and a half, and then they can work towards taking that next leap for the team. A trade for DJ is unlikely but they can get out easy enough if they decide that is the best move. Hopefully he breaks out but after 5 years I think what you see is what you get, but I am holding out hope that he can put it all together and step up to where he needs to be. If he does that makes things that much easier with him at QB.
But in all likelihood he has that Alex Smith ceiling
I will add a couple of other thoughts:
1) I am not sure it's wise to rush to judgment and declare after three games the Giants need to draft a new QB
2) History has proven over and over again, it's a lot easier to say, "Just draft an elite QB", than actually drafting an elite QB. There are plenty of elite QB prospects who are backups, on the practice squad or out of the game; the league is littered with them.
You don't win Super Bowls by being timid at the position. Kerry Collins was a decent QB. We still sought to upgrade to Eli and that is why we won two more Super Bowls. We cannot be afraid of taking a shot at greatness.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 26, 2023, 03:59:20 PMI will add a couple of other thoughts:
1) I am not sure it's wise to rush to judgment and declare after three games the Giants need to draft a new QB
2) History has proven over and over again, it's a lot easier to say, "Just draft an elite QB", than actually drafting an elite QB. There are plenty of elite QB prospects who are backups, on the practice squad or out of the game; the league is littered with them.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 26, 2023, 05:22:32 PMYou don't win Super Bowls by being timid at the position. Kerry Collins was a decent QB. We still sought to upgrade to Eli and that is why we won two more Super Bowls. We cannot be afraid of taking a shot at greatness.
You can extend that example further to where the Giants stuck with Eli despite the many doubters.
Sure. But I need to see a daring QB. The checkdown charlie routine is getting very old. You just can't win big this way.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 26, 2023, 05:29:19 PMYou can extend that example further to where the Giants stuck with Eli despite the many doubters.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 26, 2023, 05:22:32 PMYou don't win Super Bowls by being timid at the position. Kerry Collins was a decent QB. We still sought to upgrade to Eli and that is why we won two more Super Bowls. We cannot be afraid of taking a shot at greatness.
I agree.
Also think about it from a purely economical point of view:
If $40mm/year is the current going price for a QB who has proven he's good but has not yet proven he is great, and that is roughly double the price of an elite or near-elite player at virtually all the other premium positions, why wouldn't you take a shot on a QB in the draft that you have a very strong view on? I understand roster building is important, but if you end up with two excellent QBs on the same roster, why is that a problem? Will it really be difficult to move on for a lions share of draft capital or another star player PLUS draft capital?
People thought the Eagles were foolish when they drafted Hurts in the second round despite already having Wentz. What are those people saying now?
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 26, 2023, 03:59:20 PMI will add a couple of other thoughts:
1) I am not sure it's wise to rush to judgment and declare after three games the Giants need to draft a new QB
2) History has proven over and over again, it's a lot easier to say, "Just draft an elite QB", than actually drafting an elite QB. There are plenty of elite QB prospects who are backups, on the practice squad or out of the game; the league is littered with them.
1) I believe that in the near future (3 seasons) the Giants will be in the market for a new QB. I don't think it will be after this season unless the rest of the season goes completely in the tank.
2) This is definitely true. It is easier said than done. I don't think anyone would deny that. But that doesn't mean you hold onto an average QB because of the fear that the next guy you target flops. Unless you're a team that is satisfied with your average QB and the results they help you produce.
Brian Daboll today
Q: Do you think too much pressure can cause a quarterback to see it when it's not there because it's just so often happening that they have to get sped up in the process.
A: In the pocket?
Q: Yeah.
A: I think there is always an element to that. When you can affect the quarterback, I think it speeds up things. Again, there is always when you are game planning, shorter routes, get it out quicker, less of the protection. You want to run deep routes, you have some more protection in. So, definitely an area that we've got to improve is making sure that we give our quarterback a clean pocket and it's not just always the line. There is backs involved, there is timing in the passing the game, there is receivers getting open, so it's really a collective thing when it comes to that.
When projecting the Draft I love how "deep" seems to mean automatically success in the NFL. See Zach Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen.... as so-called depth in the position from college.
Quote from: Philosophers on September 26, 2023, 08:45:10 PMWhen projecting the Draft I love how "deep" seems to mean automatically success in the NFL. See Zach Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen.... as so-called depth in the position from college.
I would absolutely agree most years but because of the transfer portal/graduate rule and the covid year, this coming draft is pretty stacked.
1. Caleb Williams USC
2. Drake Maye N. Carolina
3. JJ Mccarthy Michigan
4. Quinn Ewers Texas
5. Micheal Penix Jr Washington
6. Sheddur Sanders Colorado
7. Jordan Travis FSU
8. Riley Leonard Duke
9. Bo Nix Oregon
10. Micheal Pratt Tulane
11. Tyler Van Dyke Miami
12. Sam Hartman ND
And that's leaving some guys off the list of draftable qbs. Yes they won't all be superstars but some teams are going to hit on this draft and find a Purdy because there are just too many available.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 26, 2023, 03:59:20 PMI will add a couple of other thoughts:
1) I am not sure it's wise to rush to judgment and declare after three games the Giants need to draft a new QB
2) History has proven over and over again, it's a lot easier to say, "Just draft an elite QB", than actually drafting an elite QB. There are plenty of elite QB prospects who are backups, on the practice squad or out of the game; the league is littered with them.
I like your list, Rich
@MightyGiants , and I wouldn't be so fast to compare Jones to Smith either since the latter had to deal with injuries early in his career that would compare closer to Phil Simms. His gallantry, toughness and on-field leadership were evident as he was a clear choice as team captain for the 49ers and, although he wasn't Pro Bowl material in those early years, USA Today made him a clear-cut choice for their "All Joe Team" for two consecutive seasons (2011-12).
As for his first six seasons (i.e. 2005-10), Smith does align with Jones in that he had a new offensive system to learn every year, had incompetent head coaches (i.e. starting with Mike Nolan, who was fired midway through the 2008 season for coach Mike Singletary taking over the rest of the season and was offered the job full-time. Singletary lasted two full seasons before he was fired in 2010 and replaced by Jim Harbaugh in 2011) yet showed glimpses of promise which appeared to justify his #1 overall picking in the 2005 NFL draft.
Yet falling short in the 2011 NFC Championship, and getting off to a 6-2 start in 2012, Smith was knocked out in a game against the Rams and left concussed. Kaepernick took over and the teams ended the game in a draw. Kaepernick started the following week, played well and won. Harbaugh stuck with him, Smith never started another game for the 49ers, and we know how that all played out in the Super Bowl. There is no comparing Jones to Smith there. Smith was traded to the Chiefs and had five productive seasons under Andy Reid. But none of those went any further than the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The 2018 move to Washington is well documented, with his nasty injury, and near-miraculous comeback, and playing until he retired in 2020.
Alex Smith never won the big one. He came within an overtime period of getting to the big dance; however, fate was shining on the Giants' side that evening. The following season, he suffered a fate worse than Phil Simms experienced in 1990 when he returned from his concussion only to realize he lost his job for good. For what ... a 6-2 start? Well, even though it took a couple of years, at least Phil got his starting job back in 1993 and, although it ended two steps short of a dream season, to have that one final hurrah in Giant Big Blue makes that season one I will cherish for the rest of my life.
Right now the Giants and Daniel Jones are about where the 2007-08 49ers were at in their development and that includes both quarterbacks. There are more growing pains to be had and instant gratification turnarounds are very rare in this league. They take time and Schoen and Daboll are only at Phase II of the rebuild process. It doesn't always go perfectly and playing against two of the best defenses in the NFL have made that pretty obvious.
Finally, a model, or as we call it a "simulation," is an analysis of a product's (NOTE: in this case, a quarterback) functional performance over time taking into account a number of variables (NOTE: let's call them "environmental constraints"). There are no absolutes for a Daniel Jones at this stage of his career and, especially so, given the state of rebuild the team is in. So, the simulation needs to play out a bit and the variables the head coach programs into the product's (i.e. QB's) memory may alter the result as the season progresses.
I, for one, am expecting to see something completely different this coming weekend. I say so because it HAS to be different in order to yield an improved expected outcome.
Peace!
I said it this past season, we shouldn't have resigned Jones or Barkley. Not because I don't like them, but because we havent had a full rebuild since before Coughlin. Just half way measures because a season ie 2016, 20222 gave us false hope. Every elite team that is elite right now built up from scratch besides KC but even they drafted a QB like the Eagles did while they had a QB. If you don't have a top 5-7 Qb then you need to keep drafting one until you do, while you build up the team around you.
You cannot win in the modern NFL without an elite QB. Yes you can possibly go on a run, but you can't have sustained success without a "Guy" and I'm sorry but Jones isn't a "Guy". There's nothing in 5 seasons to say he is one. At least the Carr's, and Goff's are putting up 4,000 30 and 10, we haven't had a QB come close to that in more than half a decade and yet we are supposed to be eternally optimistic?
I'll always root for the Giants and whoever is at QB but any other player on this team or any team not named Daniel Jones that had 1 good year and 3 1/4 bad years and we as a fan base would be looking for his replacement. The fan base already wants to run Neal out of town, and KT after less than a full year bc they both had injuries but are more than ok going on year 5 of below average QB play.
Just a thought.
Smith had an unreal defense that carried him. He was not the reason for the success of those teams. And that is the model for Jones to succeed. But that is a problem because you can't maintain that talent level once a QB is paid.
Quote from: kartanoman on September 26, 2023, 09:33:03 PMI like your list, Rich @MightyGiants , and I wouldn't be so fast to compare Jones to Smith either since the latter had to deal with injuries early in his career that would compare closer to Phil Simms. His gallantry, toughness and on-field leadership were evident as he was a clear choice as team captain for the 49ers and, although he wasn't Pro Bowl material in those early years, USA Today made him a clear-cut choice for their "All Joe Team" for two consecutive seasons (2011-12).
As for his first six seasons (i.e. 2005-10), Smith does align with Jones in that he had a new offensive system to learn every year, had incompetent head coaches (i.e. starting with Mike Nolan, who was fired midway through the 2008 season for coach Mike Singletary taking over the rest of the season and was offered the job full-time. Singletary lasted two full seasons before he was fired in 2010 and replaced by Jim Harbaugh in 2011) yet showed glimpses of promise which appeared to justify his #1 overall picking in the 2005 NFL draft.
Yet falling short in the 2011 NFC Championship, and getting off to a 6-2 start in 2012, Smith was knocked out in a game against the Rams and left concussed. Kaepernick took over and the teams ended the game in a draw. Kaepernick started the following week, played well and won. Harbaugh stuck with him, Smith never started another game for the 49ers, and we know how that all played out in the Super Bowl. There is no comparing Jones to Smith there. Smith was traded to the Chiefs and had five productive seasons under Andy Reid. But none of those went any further than the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The 2018 move to Washington is well documented, with his nasty injury, and near-miraculous comeback, and playing until he retired in 2020.
Alex Smith never won the big one. He came within an overtime period of getting to the big dance; however, fate was shining on the Giants' side that evening. The following season, he suffered a fate worse than Phil Simms experienced in 1990 when he returned from his concussion only to realize he lost his job for good. For what ... a 6-2 start? Well, even though it took a couple of years, at least Phil got his starting job back in 1993 and, although it ended two steps short of a dream season, to have that one final hurrah in Giant Big Blue makes that season one I will cherish for the rest of my life.
Right now the Giants and Daniel Jones are about where the 2007-08 49ers were at in their development and that includes both quarterbacks. There are more growing pains to be had and instant gratification turnarounds are very rare in this league. They take time and Schoen and Daboll are only at Phase II of the rebuild process. It doesn't always go perfectly and playing against two of the best defenses in the NFL have made that pretty obvious.
Finally, a model, or as we call it a "simulation," is an analysis of a product's (NOTE: in this case, a quarterback) functional performance over time taking into account a number of variables (NOTE: let's call them "environmental constraints"). There are no absolutes for a Daniel Jones at this stage of his career and, especially so, given the state of rebuild the team is in. So, the simulation needs to play out a bit and the variables the head coach programs into the product's (i.e. QB's) memory may alter the result as the season progresses.
I, for one, am expecting to see something completely different this coming weekend. I say so because it HAS to be different in order to yield an improved expected outcome.
Peace!
Quote from: Jclayton92 on September 26, 2023, 09:21:42 PMI would absolutely agree most years but because of the transfer portal/graduate rule and the covid year, this coming draft is pretty stacked.
1. Caleb Williams USC
2. Drake Maye N. Carolina
3. JJ Mccarthy Michigan
4. Quinn Ewers Texas
5. Micheal Penix Jr Washington
6. Sheddur Sanders Colorado
7. Jordan Travis FSU
8. Riley Leonard Duke
9. Bo Nix Oregon
10. Micheal Pratt Tulane
11. Tyler Van Dyke Miami
12. Sam Hartman ND
And that's leaving some guys off the list of draftable qbs. Yes they won't all be superstars but some teams are going to hit on this draft and find a Purdy because there are just too many available.
I know people are high on Caleb Williams and I'll admit I don't watch College football but I am skeptical about QBs from USC as I am QBs from Duke. Certain schools have a history of having hyped QBs who end up flopping in the NFL.
Quote from: Rambo89 on September 27, 2023, 06:02:03 AMI know people are high on Caleb Williams and I'll admit I don't watch College football but I am skeptical about QBs from USC as I am QBs from Duke. Certain schools have a history of having hyped QBs who end up flopping in the NFL.
Very fair to be skeptical of USC QBs. OSU QBs have the same type of track record. At least USC produced Carson Palmer though, so it's not like they've never had anyone good.
Williams looks pretty legit to me. He has the ability to make Mahomes type throws across his body and on the run, and he's very athletic though he doesn't depend on his athleticism (ie he can stand in the pocket and deliver crisp, accurate, strong throws downfield).
Of some concern is that he's 6'1", which is not tiny, but it's hardly tall for a QB. He's about the same size as Jalen Hurts. Generally speaking I prefer QBs to be at least 6'2". And that is not to say that a sub 6'2" QB cannot be successful; obviously we all know the examples of QBs who are less than that height and have been good or in some cases elite, but the reality is it's a disadvantage all things being equal.
Predicting how good college QBs will be in the NFL is very difficult, as GMs and professional scouts get it wrong all the time, so for the average fan to think he has an edge is a bit silly. So with that disclaimer, I do think Williams will be good based on what I have seen, but you're right to flag the overall track record of QBs from that school. It is definitely not good.
I think it is silly to scout colleges and not the player. He's not playing in the same system of years ago. He's playing for the same coach Jalen Hurts did. Guy has ridiculous arm talent and processes the field very well.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 26, 2023, 09:58:29 PMSmith had an unreal defense that carried him. He was not the reason for the success of those teams. And that is the model for Jones to succeed. But that is a problem because you can't maintain that talent level once a QB is paid.
Funny, I remember Smith carrying the defense against New Orleans in the 2011 Divisional Playoff game where Drew Brees cut holes in the 49ers' defense and Smith kept leading the offense and matched Brees score for score until he tossed the winner to Davis with nearly no time left to win 36-32.
Even in the NFC Championship game, Smith and Manning played to a draw with both defenses taking the game over. It came down to turnovers by the special teams which proved the difference.
Even in 2012, Smith had the 49ers at 6-2 before a concussion ended his career in SF. Harbaugh helped Smith resurrect his career and he sustained a period of demonstrated performance, self-confidence and leadership before he sustained that concussion. But history will show that Kaepernick brought a dynamic skillset to the SF QB position which transformed that offense and Harbaugh decided to roll the dice and ride it all the way to the Super Bowl where the 49ers just fell short in the end.
The 49ers traded Smith to the Chiefs in 2013 and Andy Reid further helped Smith develop and he had five solid performance seasons for the Chiefs.
So, I'm still not seeing the analogy between Smith and Jones. Especially since Jones hasn't been "carried" by anyone on his team, maybe that's where I'm missing the boat. You tell me.
Peace!
We won the NFC title game largely because Alex Smith couldn't convert a single third down besides a meaningless completion at the end of regulation. If the QBs were reversed in that game, San Francisco wins easily. Their defense was simply a much better unit than ours.
Quote from: kartanoman on September 27, 2023, 12:16:11 PMFunny, I remember Smith carrying the defense against New Orleans in the 2011 Divisional Playoff game where Drew Brees cut holes in the 49ers' defense and Smith kept leading the offense and matched Brees score for score until he tossed the winner to Davis with nearly no time left to win 36-32.
Even in the NFC Championship game, Smith and Manning played to a draw with both defenses taking the game over. It came down to turnovers by the special teams which proved the difference.
Even in 2012, Smith had the 49ers at 6-2 before a concussion ended his career in SF. Harbaugh helped Smith resurrect his career and he sustained a period of demonstrated performance, self-confidence and leadership before he sustained that concussion. But history will show that Kaepernick brought a dynamic skillset to the SF QB position which transformed that offense and Harbaugh decided to roll the dice and ride it all the way to the Super Bowl where the 49ers just fell short in the end.
The 49ers traded Smith to the Chiefs in 2013 and Andy Reid further helped Smith develop and he had five solid performance seasons for the Chiefs.
So, I'm still not seeing the analogy between Smith and Jones. Especially since Jones hasn't been "carried" by anyone on his team, maybe that's where I'm missing the boat. You tell me.
Peace!
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 27, 2023, 12:40:23 PMWe won the NFC title game largely because Alex Smith couldn't convert a single third down besides a meaningless completion at the end of regulation. If the QBs were reversed in that game, San Francisco wins easily. Their defense was simply a much better unit than ours.
That's the difference between an Average QB and an Elite one. That's the difference between the Chiefs with Alex Smith and the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes.
Quote from: Rambo89 on September 27, 2023, 01:41:02 PMThat's the difference between an Average QB and an Elite one. That's the difference between the Chiefs with Alex Smith and the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes.
True, Mahomes literally took over the team Alex Smith was running.
Quote from: True Blue on September 26, 2023, 03:46:41 PM@Dgoodmantrublu I agree with your post and assessment. Alex Smith is a great comparison.
Daniel Jones is a good QB, as was Smith. Jones is a much better runner, Smith probably a slightly better passer so it about evens out. But while these guys are good QBs they limit the ceiling the team has.
I would be in favor of the approach you suggested. This lets them compete and build for another season and a half, and then they can work towards taking that next leap for the team. A trade for DJ is unlikely but they can get out easy enough if they decide that is the best move. Hopefully he breaks out but after 5 years I think what you see is what you get, but I am holding out hope that he can put it all together and step up to where he needs to be. If he does that makes things that much easier with him at QB.
But in all likelihood he has that Alex Smith ceiling
Im torn. Starting with the film, some of it may be deceiving while other parts of it are eye opening. Alex Smith is a fair comp and you can win with a guy like that.
That said, remember when Payton was stripped
of play calling? Or when Hufnagel was fired? One knock in Payton was he had too much motion and it gummed up the offense. Hufnagel didnt work well
with Eli's skillset. Point being, under Shurmur DJ let it rip. Because he has to game manage more because of the perceived talent gap between most teams, he is tentative. Bottom
line, even with a suspect O line he needs more autonomy to let if fly.
Banks is correct. If the timing of a play is disrupted it changes everything.
There are too many "moving parts" on the field for a QB to keep track of all at the same time.
That is WHY having a disruptive pass rush is so important in today's pro football.
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on September 28, 2023, 06:23:09 AMBanks is correct. If the timing of a play is disrupted it changes everything.
There are too many "moving parts" on the field for a QB to keep track of all at the same time.
That is WHY having a disruptive pass rush is so important in today's pro football.
Bob
One only needs to look at the first Super Bowl against the Patriots. Spags put pressure on the greatest QB of all time, Tom Brady, and it impacted his game to where he looked very ordinary. As Wink likes to say, pressure breaks pipes.
We can pull the rare exception for the great QB's where pressure impacts their performance in that game. But again those are the rare exceptions for them not the norm. For those QB's who are average or worse it's used as the norm to explain poor performances/lack of production not the exception.
Quote from: Rambo89 on September 28, 2023, 08:49:23 AMWe can pull the rare exception for the great QB's where pressure impacts their performance in that game. But again those are the rare exceptions for them not the norm. For those QB's who are average or worse it's used as the norm to explain poor performances/lack of production not the exception.
They are not "rare exceptions." we saw the same issue suffered by Mahomes in a Super Bowl, before the Chiefs invested big time in his protection.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 28, 2023, 08:51:13 AMThey are not "rare exceptions." we saw the same issue suffered by Mahomes in a Super Bowl, before the Chiefs invested big time in his protection.
Those games for those QB's are the rare exception not the norm for them where they are unproductive and don't play well.
Quote from: Rambo89 on September 28, 2023, 08:52:18 AMThose games for those QB's are the rare exception not the norm for them where they are unproductive and don't play well.
They are rare because good QB play is usually paired with good protection. However, it's very rare to see good QB play when there is very bad protection, even from the best QBs. At it's heart, this is why we differ on QB assessments of players like Jones. You don't believe QB play can be harmed by poor pass protection and/or poor receiver play, while I do.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 28, 2023, 08:54:33 AMThey are rare because good QB play is usually paired with good protection. However, it's very rare to see good QB play when there is very bad protection, even from the best QBs. At it's heart, this is why we differ on QB assessments of players like Jones. You don't believe QB play can be harmed by poor pass protection and/or poor receiver play, while I do.
Then again this goes back to the QB's are interchangeable point and that the logic is that supporting casts are more important than the QB's themselves. Which means it doesn't make sense to invest as much into a QB as you do the supporting cast.
Quote from: Rambo89 on September 28, 2023, 08:56:05 AMThen again this goes back to the QB's are interchangeable point and that the logic is that supporting casts are more important than the QB's themselves. Which means it doesn't make sense to invest as much into a QB as you do the supporting cast.
The NFL loves to spin the tales of individual heroics. It drives fan interest and sells jerseys. The reality is that the NFL is and always will be a team sport. Eli Manning isn't the MVP of Super Bowl XLII if David Tyree doesn't catch the ball with his helmet. Let us not get confused. QB is an important position (the most important position), but that doesn't change the reality of QBs needing proper support. Ask Rodgers if pass protection is important in terms of being able to perform on the field.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 28, 2023, 09:03:15 AMThe NFL loves to spin the tales of individual heroics. It drives fan interest and sells jerseys. The reality is that the NFL is and always will be a team sport. Eli Manning isn't the MVP of Super Bowl XLII if David Tyree doesn't catch the ball with his helmet. Let us not get confused. QB is an important position (the most important position), but that doesn't change the reality of QBs needing proper support. Ask Rodgers if pass protection is important in terms of being able to perform on the field.
If QB is the most important position then the results produced and performance should be viewed as more dependent on their own play than those around them. If their performance and production is more dependent on their supporting cast then they aren't nearly as important as they are made out to be.
@Rambo and
@MightyGiants - I think you both are right. Now you're just arguing the minutiae of who is "more right" to win the point.
An effective pass rush can neutralize even the greatest QBs. The big difference between elite and average QBs is that they still find ways to be successful, even if it doesn't equate to a win. They don't fold under the pressure.
That Patriots game was won because of Belichick's arrogance. He saw the Giants were succeeding and rather than alter or make adjustments to their plan, he just kept doing the same thing believing his team was so superior that they would still win anyway.
Quote from: T200Brown on September 28, 2023, 09:20:34 AMAn effective pass rush can neutralize even the greatest QBs. The big difference between elite and average QBs is that they still find ways to be successful, even if it doesn't equate to a win. They don't fold under the pressure.
This is exactly how I feel. It's not that pressure doesn't impact a QB but rather that it isn't the reason why a QB isn't great on a consistent basis.
https://twitter.com/danschneiernfl/status/1707122089449197956?s=61 (https://twitter.com/danschneiernfl/status/1707122089449197956?s=61)
A great example of an elite QB reading at the LOS of what is coming and making a play against a great amount of pressure.
Quote from: Rambo89 on September 28, 2023, 10:32:56 AMhttps://twitter.com/danschneiernfl/status/1707122089449197956?s=61 (https://twitter.com/danschneiernfl/status/1707122089449197956?s=61)
A great example of an elite QB reading at the LOS of what is coming and making a play against a great amount of pressure.
Rambo: Schneier is right, but..... so far Jones and Herbert are both 1-2.
IMO Jones' opponents (as a whole) in his first three games were slightly better teams than Herbert's opponents.
For a direct comparison, let's see how Herbert faces against the Cowboys in two weeks.
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on September 28, 2023, 11:56:48 AMRambo: Schneier is right, but..... so far Jones and Herbert are both 1-2.
IMO Jones' opponents (as a whole) in his first three games were slightly better teams than Herbert's opponents.
For a direct comparison, let's see how Herbert faces against the Cowboys in two weeks.
Bob
A cowboys team without their best CB might be winnable for them.
Quote from: T200Brown on September 28, 2023, 09:20:34 AM@Rambo and @MightyGiants - I think you both are right. Now you're just arguing the minutiae of who is "more right" to win the point.
An effective pass rush can neutralize even the greatest QBs. The big difference between elite and average QBs is that they still find ways to be successful, even if it doesn't equate to a win. They don't fold under the pressure.
Tim,
I sort of agree with your assertion in bold. I view it as this: If there is roughly equal support, an elite QB will perform significantly better than an average one. In terms of support though, I think the extremes (either elite-level support or really poor support) can, to a significant degree, neutralize the talent gap between QBs substancially.
Quote from: Bob In PA on September 28, 2023, 11:56:48 AMRambo: Schneier is right, but..... so far Jones and Herbert are both 1-2.
IMO Jones' opponents (as a whole) in his first three games were slightly better teams than Herbert's opponents.
For a direct comparison, let's see how Herbert faces against the Cowboys in two weeks.
Bob
Just looking at their career numbers it's not even close as to the level Herbert is at compared to Jones. There's a large enough sample size where we can do a fair comparison.
Herbert's team has the same record. He's played much better than Jones. Chargers defense has blown games they should have won easily. There is not a GM in football who would rather have Jones than Herbert.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 28, 2023, 12:59:53 PMHerbert's team has the same record. He's played much better than Jones. Chargers defense has blown games they should have won easily. There is not a GM in football who would rather have Jones than Herbert.
At this point in time, it's hard to argue that Herbert isn't better than Jones. Although if you are going to compare the two it's worth noting (PFF rankings)
Pass Protection:
Herbert- 7th
Jones- 31st
Receiving
Herbert- 7th
Jones- 30th
Regardless of talent levels with that sort of support disparity, one would certainly expect Herbert to be playing better
There is always an excuse.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 28, 2023, 01:29:45 PMThere is always an excuse.
Are you suggesting we should ignore the quality of pass protection and receiving? If so, please explain why.
The receiving is ranked 30th right now because Jones isn't getting them the ball.
I refuse to go this whole season with the he doesn't have pass protection and receiving. He got paid, to the detriment of the team filling other areas of concern and they still drafted him a center, Wr, and traded for Waller. So what else could they possibly do to make a dream scenario for Jones every game? He's got a top 5 RB, Top 5 TE and serious speed on the outside.
You all thought it was the greatest show on turf against the panthers in the preseason but now it's "garbage" lol its honestly comical.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on September 28, 2023, 01:45:45 PMThe receiving is ranked 30th right now because Jones isn't getting them the ball.
I refuse to go this whole season with the he doesn't have pass protection and receiving. He got paid, to the detriment of the team filling other areas of concern and they still drafted him a center, Wr, and traded for Waller. So what else could they possibly do to make a dream scenario for Jones every game? He's got a top 5 RB, Top 5 TE and serious speed on the outside.
You all thought it was the greatest show on turf against the panthers in the preseason but now it's "garbage" lol its honestly comical.
That's not how PFF grades work. Unlike production, a WR's PFF grade isn't impacted by the QB.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 28, 2023, 12:25:45 PMTim,
I sort of agree with your assertion in bold. I view it as this: If there is roughly equal support, an elite QB will perform significantly better than an average one. In terms of support though, I think the extremes (either elite-level support or really poor support) can, to a significant degree, neutralize the talent gap between QBs substancially.
Rich,
I only gave my unsolicited view about QBs and pass rush. If you're adding support to the equation, that's a totally separate factor that changes the conversation.
An average QB versus an elite pass rush will typically not perform as well as an elite QB versus an elite pass rush.
You and Rambo are essentially saying the same thing. Neither of you want to say "I agree" since that would give the appearance of you two getting along. Just my opinion.
Herbert has often performed much better than Jones in similar circumstances. It's been 5 years. This team needs an upgrade at the position.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 28, 2023, 01:34:49 PMAre you suggesting we should ignore the quality of pass protection and receiving? If so, please explain why.
Quote from: T200Brown on September 28, 2023, 01:55:12 PMRich,
I only gave my unsolicited view about QBs and pass rush. If you're adding support to the equation, that's a totally separate factor that changes the conversation.
An average QB versus an elite pass rush will typically not perform as well as an elite QB versus an elite pass rush.
You and Rambo are essentially saying the same thing. Neither of you want to say "I agree" since that would give the appearance of you two getting along. Just my opinion.
Think where Rich and I disagree is the degree the supporting cast impacts a QB's performance/production with him believing it impacts it significantly more than I do (seems to be the case with everyone here). I don't believe extremes neutralize a talent gap and he does and that's cool. Think we both can agree that we disagree on that.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 28, 2023, 02:02:23 PMHerbert has often performed much better than Jones in similar circumstances. It's been 5 years. This team needs an upgrade at the position.
I agree
Herbert makes plays under pressure, Keenan, Williams and Ekeler have all missed their share of time and he still produces and plays at a high level even without them. Numbers aren't even close.
He too is on his third offensive coordinator, he has produced extremely well despite that much turnover. Jones has never come close to breathing that same air.
If Mahomes is a 10, Herbert is a 9, and DJ is a 6.
Joe Burrow made it to a Super Bowl with an OL worse than what we have, protection matters, but the great ones find a way to make it work.
Jones has left many plays on the table, he has missed them. I don't care if some claim his internal clock is messed up from the poor OL play, the plays were there with a pocket available to him, he has to make it work when they are there for the taking. Look at Eli against SF in the NFCCG, took an absolute beating for 60 minutes, but he stepped up, shook it off, and did not let it make him play scared. He did what he had to do
Jones is good, but he is not great, and if we need a fairy tale dream scenario for him to have a CHANCE to succeed, he never will be great, he is what his resume says he is. A good, solid QB, nothing more, nothing less.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 28, 2023, 01:48:58 PMThat's not how PFF grades work. Unlike production, a WR's PFF grade isn't impacted by the QB.
How so when a WR's PFF grade is based upon them getting the ball?
https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-pff-grades-receiving
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 28, 2023, 02:02:23 PMHerbert has often performed much better than Jones in similar circumstances. It's been 5 years. This team needs an upgrade at the position.
I went through all the years Herbert was in the league and looked at the pass-blocking and the receiving ranks. There wasn't even a single year where they were in "similar circumstances." Herbert has consistently enjoyed significantly better blocking and better receiving (the closest ever was Herbert's rookie season; he has only slightly better protection to pair with superior receiving).
I appreciate that you believe the team needs to upgrade at QB, but if you believe that protection and receiving impact performance, then I don't think we should be using Herbert as proof of that need.
Quote from: Rambo89 on September 28, 2023, 02:26:22 PMHow so when a WR's PFF grade is based upon them getting the ball?
https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-pff-grades-receiving
Receivers
who consistently beat man and zone coverage, win contested catches or create yards after the catch will grade well in the PFF system.
Receivers who fail to separate, fail to catch the ball consistently or fail to create after the catch will grade poorly.
Obviously, a pass thrown their way creates chances to improve or worsen their grade, but they do take into account how they are running routes and if they are getting open. Considering 3 out of 4 INTs are on the receivers and the Giants are ranked low on separation gained, it's not hard to see how they earned their poor grade, and it has little to nothing to do with Jones (although the O-line likely hurts them as they have less time to achieve separation)
This thread is what I mean by taking PFF as facts. Just because their grades say something doesn't make it true. Herbert was good his rookie year. Their OL was a joke. He made his OL look better with his quick release. He's done the same in other years.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 28, 2023, 02:33:55 PMReceivers who consistently beat man and zone coverage, win contested catches or create yards after the catch will grade well in the PFF system. Receivers who fail to separate, fail to catch the ball consistently or fail to create after the catch will grade poorly.
Obviously, a pass thrown their way creates chances to improve or worsen their grade, but they do take into account how they are running routes and if they are getting open. Considering 3 out of 4 INTs are on the receivers and the Giants are ranked low on separation gained, it's not hard to see how they earned their poor grade, and it has little to nothing to do with Jones (although the O-line likely hurts them as they have less time to achieve separation)
This contradicts your prior statement. This can't be said while also claiming a QB doesn't impact a WR grade
EDIT: The third bolded I did not bold the others
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 28, 2023, 02:33:55 PMReceivers who consistently beat man and zone coverage, win contested catches or create yards after the catch will grade well in the PFF system. Receivers who fail to separate, fail to catch the ball consistently or fail to create after the catch will grade poorly.
Obviously, a pass thrown their way creates chances to improve or worsen their grade, but they do take into account how they are running routes and if they are getting open. Considering 3 out of 4 INTs are on the receivers and the Giants are ranked low on separation gained, it's not hard to see how they earned their poor grade, and it has little to nothing to do with Jones (although the O-line likely hurts them as they have less time to achieve separation)
Exactly, so to say that a WR's grade isn't impacted by QB play isn't true. It is impacted. If a receiver isn't being thrown the ball they aren't being given a chance to better or worsen their grade. I'm not sure how PFF would know what the play called for as far as the correct route or whether the receiver had the option of changing their route based upon the coverage.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on September 28, 2023, 02:41:34 PMThis thread is what I mean by taking PFF as facts. Just because their grades say something doesn't make it true. Herbert was good his rookie year. Their OL was a joke. He made his OL look better with his quick release. He's done the same in other years.
That's another flaw with PFF it's not so much fact as it is a calculation based upon an opinion of the person doing the scoring. So using it in a debate isn't necessarily using a fact as it is using a source based off of one method for looking at evaluations.
Quote from: Rambo89 on September 28, 2023, 02:48:45 PMExactly, so to say that a WR's grade isn't impacted by QB play isn't true. It is impacted. If a receiver isn't being thrown the ball they aren't being given a chance to better or worsen their grade. I'm not sure how PFF would know what the play called for as far as the correct route or whether the receiver had the option of changing their route based upon the coverage.
That's another flaw with PFF it's not so much fact as it is a calculation based upon an opinion of the person doing the scoring. So using it in a debate isn't necessarily using a fact as it is using a source based off of one method for looking at evaluations.
@True Blue You know to a degree, you guys may have a point. More targets (although how much of that is a function of the QB, and how much is due to scheme, snaps, and separation?) could give a receiver a chance to boost their grade (although a bad QB throw would give them a chance to boost their grade by making a harder catch). Still, I will concede there is a possibility Jones may have impacted their grades one way or the other.
Although, since you were quite critical of my commentary, perhaps you can be equally analytic with the other side of things. Please explain to me how "Jones didn't get them the ball." What was measured? How was it exactly determined that Jones drove down the receiver's grades?
I was more than willing to concede a fair point, and I hope you will show a willingness to reciprocate by showing a willingness to look at both sides of the issue with equal intensity.
Quote from: MightyGiants on September 28, 2023, 02:55:22 PM@True Blue
You know to a degree, you guys may have a point. More targets (although how much of that is a function of the QB, and how much is due to scheme, snaps, and separation?) could give a receiver a chance to boost their grade (although a bad QB throw would give them a chance to boost their grade by making a harder catch). Still, I will concede there is a possibility Jones may have impacted their grades one way or the other.
Although, since you were quite critical of my commentary, perhaps you can be equally analytic with the other side of things. Please explain to me how "Jones didn't get them the ball." What was measured? How was it exactly determined that Jones drove down the receiver's grades?
I was more than willing to concede a fair point, and I hope you will show a willingness to reciprocate by showing a willingness to look at both sides of the issue with equal intensity.
That's all I was trying to point out when I asked my question about a QB's play impacting how PFF grades receivers. The point also isn't just about Jones but also Herbert whose ability could be impacting those high grades in a positive direction. To what degree we can speculate based upon our own opinions but not on any facts that can't be disputed.
The Jones debate will never end. It was the same with Phil Simms (even after he WON). It's boring. I think we Giants' fans should stop taking seriously those annual "press clippings" stating that we're "knowledgeable."
No doubt, as a group, we are unbelievably interested and involved, and we DO do our best to be informed in a situation where the team does EVERYTHING POSSIBLE to keep us in the dark. We simply do not have access to all of the facts that would enable us to claim we "know better" than the guys who decided to pay Jones all that money.
All the angst, over-analysis and complaining in the world won't change the fact that Jones is the Giants' QB.
If you want to ignore facts, it's your privilege, and that's why this site is here, so have at it, but remember that no matter what you say (i.e., Jones is letting the team down -or- is overpaid -or- is not as good as "X") the same can be said of the rest of the offense... THEY (the OL in particular) are letting Jones down!
Or does someone care to make the case that the offensive line is NOT letting Jones down, or that the offensive line IS giving him enough time run Daboll's/Kafka's plays, or that Jones is making the line look bad?
Bob