Since training, college, and QBs have changed in the last 10 years how long do you give a QB. Now before you know its time to.move on ?
2 or 3 years
Much depends on specific circumstances, but after two years you should have some idea of what you might have. After three years you should have a pretty good idea of what you do have.
QBs who are bad as rookies and then show no improvement whatsoever in year two are usually busts. Think Darnold, Zack Wilson, and (I know nobody wants to hear this) Jones. Good QBs virtually always improve in year two if they weren't already good as rookies. So I think the real evaluation years are year two and year three. But as I said above a lot of it is circumstantial/individual.
Three years unless things are a total disaster. There are rare circumstances where you will know sooner. If you haven't seen enough in three years though, you move on.
3 years max.
Three years of full time duty.
Then you'll know if you have a Starter, a Backup, or a Bust. :yes:
2 years is plenty of time to know imo. Had any QB sucked for 2 years then all of a sudden became a good QB in year 3 or beyond? Geno? Can't really think of any others
You need moments in those first two years, but not consistent play. Eli was inconsistent early on, but he had some amazing moments within that time frame. Same for Josh Allen.
Goff had become pretty good
Depends on whether he plays a partial or full first year. Eli had 17,18 and 20 interceptions his 2-4 years and blossomed in the playoffs.
Aaron Rodgers didn't play his first three years.
It depends on the system they came from in college and their level of development coming in.
QB's this generation need to show something by their second year and sitting in some situations doesn't help if it's too long, like Love.
Year three is tough because of the salary complications.
Trevor Lawrence struggled his first season with a bad situation and came on strong his second year.
Some you just know in their first year, like Rosen and Haskins.
Some you see warts before the draft, yet they still get drafted high. I think we know Mayfield and Darnold will never win a SB.
Mayfield actually had some success early. Then the wheels fell off in year 3.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on November 11, 2023, 10:51:09 PMMayfield actually had some success early. Then the wheels fell off in year 3.
Actually, it was year two that the wheels came off for him and for the Browns. He had some success as a rookie and challenged Barkley for OROR. Year two he and the team completely flopped. Year three both he and the team were materially improved. Year three was actually the best year of his career. He has been largely bad since, with the exception of having some intermittent success this year.
Quote from: sooners56 on November 11, 2023, 10:17:50 PM2 years is plenty of time to know imo. Had any QB sucked for 2 years then all of a sudden became a good QB in year 3 or beyond? Geno? Can't really think of any others
Josh Allen was pretty bad those first two years wasn't he?
Quote from: Gmo11 on November 12, 2023, 05:38:07 AMJosh Allen was pretty bad those first two years wasn't he?
He was bad in his first year, materially improved in year two (albeit still not great), and then broke out with the big year in year three.
There was significant improvement from year one to year two though.
Rather than consider 'when', let's talk 'how.' That's relatively simple.
You can evaluate a QB by answering the question, 'What would another NFL team be willing to pay for him as a starting quarterback right now?' Take the highest amount from the most desperate team as the index.
Go, Big Blue!
VERY timely topic, since that's now the issue with Jones (IMO).
Even if Giants draft a QB & even if it's a high 1st-rounder, that doesn't mean Jones won't start the first game.
If he does and keeps winning, he's not an "old man" by any stretch of the imagination.
Even if it's a high 1st-rounder, the first question will be how long can Jones keep the new guy on the bench.
I'll never forget how long Aaron Rodgers sat waiting for Brett Favre to play himself out of a job. There was even talk of trading Rodgers at one point.
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 12, 2023, 08:17:43 AMVERY timely topic, since that's now the issue with Jones (IMO).
Even if Giants draft a QB & even if it's a high 1st-rounder, that doesn't mean Jones won't start the first game.
If he does and keeps winning, he's not an "old man" by any stretch of the imagination.
Even if it's a high 1st-rounder, the first question will be how long can Jones keep the new guy on the bench.
I'll never forget how long Aaron Rodgers sat waiting for Brett Favre to play himself out of a job. There was even talk of trading Rodgers at one point.
Bob
Bob, do you actually believe Jones has a shot at 2025 with the Giants? I don't. Hey, he's not nearly as bad as he's been this year, but they won't take a chance with all these injuries.
Quote from: Ed Vette on November 12, 2023, 08:43:34 AMBob, do you actually believe Jones has a shot at 2025 with the Giants? I don't. Hey, he's not nearly as bad as he's been this year, but they won't take a chance with all these injuries.
Ed: Yes, unless they draft a quarterback AND he's taken in the high 1st-round AND doctors okay Jones to play.
So you're asking two questions at once. First, is he "good enough" to lead a good team?
Second, is his career basically "over" (as happened with the sad case of RB David Wilson) due to injury?
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 12, 2023, 08:49:33 AMEd: Yes, unless they draft a quarterback AND he's taken in the high 1st-round AND doctors okay Jones to play.
So you're asking two questions at once. First, is he "good enough" to lead a good team?
Second, is his career basically "over" (as happened with the sad case of RB David Wilson) due to injury?
Bob
He's not good enough to be the Franchise QB but his career isn't over yet. It's just over as a NYG past 2024. Imo
Quote from: Ed Vette on November 12, 2023, 08:54:22 AMHe's not good enough to be the Franchise QB but his career isn't over yet. It's just over as a NYG past 2024. Imo
Ed: I will reluctantly agree with that view (if warranted) but only after the off-season and next draft.
Right now Schoen/Daboll POSSIBLY can't lose anything more (in terms of credibility) than they've already lost.
For one thing the medical could change REQUIRING them to take a high first-round QB. For another, even if that doesn't happen they still could justify taking (for example) a Harrison, Jr., or even a player on defense with the high 1st-rounder (or trade down). Too many possibilities, even if I were to agree with you 100 percent as of today.
Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 12, 2023, 09:02:13 AMEd: I will reluctantly agree with that view (if warranted) but only after the off-season and next draft.
Right now Schoen/Daboll POSSIBLY can't lose anything more (in terms of credibility) than they've already lost.
For one thing the medical could change REQUIRING them to take a high first-round QB. For another, even if that doesn't happen they still could justify taking (for example) a Harrison, Jr., or even a player on defense with the high 1st-rounder (or trade down). Too many possibilities, even if I were to agree with you 100 percent as of today.
Bob
Bob, you do realize you're deeply in the minority here, right? He's got as much a chance of being the Giants QB in 2025 as Marianne Williamson has in the Oval Office.
Of course, they could renegotiate his contract. But that's a long shot.
If they don't draft a QB in the first round, it's because Tommy Boy looks to be the next Tom Brady. ;)
Quote from: Ed Vette on November 12, 2023, 09:12:19 AMBob, you do realize you're deeply in the minority here, right? He's got as much a chance of being the Giants QB in 2025 as Marianne Williamson has in the Oval Office.
Of course, they could renegotiate his contract. But that's a long shot.
If they don't draft a QB in the first round, it's because Tommy Boy looks to be the next Tom Brady. ;)
Ed: I try to always look at the "bright side" here because I only perceive two other people on here whom I can think of (off hand) who consistently try to do the same.
That doesn't stop me from making a rare "rant" post as my irritation with team ownership/management has continued to fester over the past 50 or 60 years.
The tag line at the end of this & every post I make here will not change until it becomes absolutely necessary.
Bob
So I was thinking about year 4 when things went sour.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on November 12, 2023, 05:15:33 AMActually, it was year two that the wheels came off for him and for the Browns. He had some success as a rookie and challenged Barkley for OROR. Year two he and the team completely flopped. Year three both he and the team were materially improved. Year three was actually the best year of his career. He has been largely bad since, with the exception of having some intermittent success this year.
60 odd games will be fair. It's what Jones got.
Also, it's the time period when anyone who wasn't all in on Jones, and saw him for what he was, wasn't labelled a 'hater' on this board.