If we end up with the number one overall pick, and Buffalo offered us Josh Allen for the pick, would you do it?
Curious as to people's thoughts. Obviously just pure hypotheticals and speculation here by Tiki and Evan.
https://twitter.com/EvanRobertsWFAN/status/1725297986253582372
I think so. His base salaries are very affordable as Buffalo has already paid those bonuses. It would be like having a QB on a rookie deal or close to it.
No. Trading the first pick overall means we end up with a franchise quarterback who is six years younger on a rookie deal. If we have the first pick overall I want them to go for the brass ring and draft the face of the franchise for the next 12-15 years not a really good quarterback who is wearing out his welcome somewhere else.
Actually upon closer speculation, those roster bonuses change the calculus.
I would 100% do the trade. It's not often that a talent like Allen comes around. When you draft a QB you run a huge risk that he's either bust or at least somewhat of a disappointment. I'm also with Mike Lombardi that Allen is propping up a mediocre at best team there in Buffalo rather than him being the problem. At 27 his age is not an issue for me. There are QBs coming out in this draft who will be 24 or 25 as rookies.
The age part is the real thing. It is that if you hit on a young QB, you get him on that rookie contract. That helps with team building.
Really depends on how the college kids grade out. Does one of the big-2 QBs grade out to be special? If no, then make the trade.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on November 16, 2023, 09:13:38 PMThe age part is the real thing. It is that if you hit on a young QB, you get him on that rookie contract. That helps with team building.
Eliminating any possibility that you're drafting the next Josh Rosen or even Trey Lance is huge though. Allen is a confirmed stud. If he were 31 I'd feel differently but 27 is still basically early prime for a star QB. I'd do it all day. And I'd be willing to give up more than just the first overall pick if I had to.
Quote from: Doc16LT56 on November 16, 2023, 09:20:12 PMReally depends on how the college kids grade out. Does one of the big-2 QBs grade out to be special? If no, then make the trade.
They are both considered elite prospects.
Pairing Allen with Daboll would be very enticing.
A QB on a rookie contract is probably the most valuable thing a team can have for the purposes the rest of the team so no thanks.
Quote from: Philosophers on November 16, 2023, 09:25:05 PMA QB on a rookie contract is probably the most valuable thing a team can have for the purposes the rest of the team so no thanks.
It's great if the QB is Mahomes or Allen. Not so much if it's Mayfield, Wentz, or Lance. And nobody here or anywhere else knows for sure what either of these young men will be.
1000% yes, no doubt. It will never happen though. Not a chance.
A proven Elite QB for the next ten years? Let me ask Jalin Hyatt...
He said hell yes!
So do I.
You have to take a guy that has proven to be an elite QB over a pick.
Allen is a potential HOFer. You draft a QB hoping to get a Josh Allen. Having him immediately gives the team the best QB in the NFC hands down.
Completely changes the course of the franchise.
If it happened it would take some creativity to make the salary cap work next year with Jones and Allen scheduled to count over 90 million combined.
I'm going to say no but only because I believe Caleb Williams will be a star.
I would.
He's a known commodity and he'd be back with a coach he's comfortable with and more successful with than without.
And even if they pick Williams and he turns out to be a stud, they're in the AFC. We'll see him once every 4 years.
Are those in favor considering the CAP effect? If they do it the 2024 CAP hit for our QB room would be DJ's $47 million plus $30 million for Allen. In 2025 cutting DJ would leave a residual $22 million CAP hit for him, while Allen's CAP hit would go up to $39 million. If you QB room is hitting you for $77 million, then $61 million, AND you've given up the golden ticket for 2024, how to you build out the roster?
IMHO a move like this would reek of desperation. It would make them the Browns of 2008.
gonna cost you at least ANOTHER #1 and a #2. And a new negotiation of his salary coming up.
You would need to convert the roster bonus to signing bonuses and add void years to spread that money around.
Quote from: uconnjack8 on November 16, 2023, 10:19:07 PMYou have to take a guy that has proven to be an elite QB over a pick.
Allen is a potential HOFer. You draft a QB hoping to get a Josh Allen. Having him immediately gives the team the best QB in the NFC hands down.
Completely changes the course of the franchise.
If it happened it would take some creativity to make the salary cap work next year with Jones and Allen scheduled to count over 90 million combined.
Quote from: AZGiantFan on November 16, 2023, 11:21:41 PMAre those in favor considering the CAP effect? If they do it the 2024 CAP hit for our QB room would be DJ's $47 million plus $30 million for Allen. In 2025 cutting DJ would leave a residual $22 million CAP hit for him, while Allen's CAP hit would go up to $39 million. If you QB room is hitting you for $77 million, then $61 million, AND you've given up the golden ticket for 2024, how to you build out the roster?
IMHO a move like this would reek of desperation. It would make them the Browns of 2008.
I thought we were talking fantasy? Lol
Quote from: Ed Vette on November 16, 2023, 11:35:12 PMI thought we were talking fantasy? Lol
Weoo in that case, let's go for Mahomes. ;)
I don't think Buffalo are that stupid. But if the opportuinity is there, you have to make such a trade.
The bigger question is whether Daboll survives. It's too early to tell right now. If he's not around next season, the trade no longer makes sense.
If this is available you don't think twice, which is why its pure fantasy. Buffalo would have to go insane from lead poisoning or something.
How has having Josh Allen helped the Bills?
On a related topic, it's disturbing that the team the Giants were modeling themselves after is having so many problems.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2023, 09:41:28 AMHow has having Josh Allen helped the Bills?
On a related topic, it's disturbing that the team the Giants were modeling themselves after is having so many problems.
Stefan Diggs wants out. Can't imagine why. He's the primary target. Allen needs more weapons.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2023, 09:41:28 AMHow has having Josh Allen helped the Bills?
They have gone much further in the postseason with him than they had since the Marv Levy era. His performance in KC in the AFC championship game a couple years ago was downright otherworldly, and the only reason the Bills lost that game was because their D was all-time pathetic, especially late in the game and in OT. But just to even be in the AFC championship game was a huge deal for that franchise. You're going back to the 90s for the last time that happened. Allen was the primary reason for it. So I'd say he has materially helped them. And he's only 27.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2023, 09:41:28 AMHow has having Josh Allen helped the Bills?
On a related topic, it's disturbing that the team the Giants were modeling themselves after is having so many problems.
The Bills are 8th in Point Scored (26.2) and 5th in Points Allowed (18.4) in 2023. Even including a (relative) down season this year, they are 42-17 since Josh Allen began helming the team in 2020. Yes, they have failed to win a Super Bowl (as have most teams). But I think it's disingenuous to suggest they're anything other than one of the most successful NFL franchises over the past few years and Allen is assuredly a part of that. I would kill to have the Bills supposed "problems."
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on November 17, 2023, 09:46:38 AMThey have gone much further in the postseason with him than they had since the Marv Levy era. His performance in KC in the AFC championship game a couple years ago was downright otherworldly, and the only reason the Bills lost that game was because their D was all-time pathetic, especially late in the game and in OT. But just to even be in the AFC championship game was a huge deal for that franchise. You're going back to the 90s for the last time that happened. Allen was the primary reason for it. So I'd say he has materially helped them. And he's only 27.
Jeff,
Yesterday, I told you I thought Daniel Jones had a pretty good rookie season, with the exception of his high turnover rate. This was how you responded:
QuoteThis sounds a bit like saying "she's good looking aside from her severe acne problem."
Ball security is a huge and very central part of playing the position. I don't see how it can be parsed out like this. Because he was so bad with ball security, to me his 2019 season was not good at all.
Now Consider Josh Allen's penchant for giving the ball to the other team
QuoteAllen leads the NFL in turnovers (14) and interceptions (11). He has six straight games with a pick. Allen had three of the Bills' four turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble) on Monday against Denver. For those of us who have long pointed out Allen's propensity to cough up the football with poor decision-making, and said it would one day catch up to him in a big way, well, we will not say we told you so.
Allen had a league-high 19 turnovers in 2022. This season he has more interceptions than Jordan Love (10), Mac Jones (10), Jimmy Garoppolo (nine), Sam Howell (nine), Pat Mahomes (eight) and Jalen Hurts (eight). He's just four interceptions away from tying a career high of 15 in 2021. Allen leads the NFL in lost fumbles with three.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/mike-freeman/2023/11/17/buffalo-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-problems/71585981007/
Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on November 17, 2023, 09:52:30 AMThe Bills are 8th in Point Scored (26.2) and 5th in Points Allowed (18.4) in 2023. Even including a (relative) down season this year, they are 42-17 since Josh Allen began helming the team in 2020. Yes, they have failed to win a Super Bowl (as have most teams). But I think it's disingenuous to suggest they're anything other than one of the most successful NFL franchises over the past few years and Allen is assuredly a part of that. I would kill to have the Bills supposed "problems."
Did you watch the video in the lead post? The whole premise of this theoretical trade is based on Bill's head coach getting fired and the team being torn down.
That is certainly not the sort of "problems" most fans would kill to have.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2023, 09:52:53 AMJeff,
Yesterday, I told you I thought Daniel Jones had a pretty good rookie season, with the exception of his high turnover rate. This was how you responded:
Now Consider Josh Allen's penchant for giving the ball to the other team
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/mike-freeman/2023/11/17/buffalo-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-problems/71585981007/
When you're throwing for 4500 yards and 35-plus TDs, turnovers are easier to stomach. Not to mention his 6-9 rushing TDs he gets every year. Jones has never come close to the positive offensive production a QB like Josh Allen gives you. That's the difference. Turnovers matter hugely, but they are part of the big picture and have to be looked at in that context.
I understand his performance this year is down in the above respect, but I view it as a temporary blip, not some long term deterioration.
In any event, this thread was really more about "would you trade the opportunity to draft Williams or Maye" for Josh Allen. It wasn't meant to be a Josh Allen vs Jones thread. That would be a pretty silly, short thread.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2023, 09:52:53 AMJeff,
Yesterday, I told you I thought Daniel Jones had a pretty good rookie season, with the exception of his high turnover rate. This was how you responded:
Now Consider Josh Allen's penchant for giving the ball to the other team
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/mike-freeman/2023/11/17/buffalo-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-problems/71585981007/
I think the idea is that Allen always turns the ball over a lot...except when he was paired with Daboll and (presumably) Dorsey who is already available. So the thinking is he goes back to the Josh Allen of the previous couple seasons would you make that deal.
Money aside because obviously you can't tie up half the salary cap with 2 QBs...you should 100% make that trade if offered. With that #1 pick you're hoping you end up with Josh Allen, but you could end up with Josh Rosen. So just go ahead and take Josh Allen now.
But again it'll never happen. Bills will never trade him, and the Giants could never afford him even if the Bills were dumb enough to make him available unless they also took Daniel Jones in the trade. So unless they're firing their GM And hiring Gettleman...this is nothing more than a pipe dream.
Quote from: Gmo11 on November 17, 2023, 10:04:44 AMI think the idea is that Allen always turns the ball over a lot...except when he was paired with Daboll and (presumably) Dorsey who is already available. So the thinking is he goes back to the Josh Allen of the previous couple seasons would you make that deal.
Money aside because obviously you can't tie up half the salary cap with 2 QBs...you should 100% make that trade if offered. With that #1 pick you're hoping you end up with Josh Allen, but you could end up with Josh Rosen. So just go ahead and take Josh Allen now.
But again it'll never happen. Bills will never trade him, and the Giants could never afford him even if the Bills were dumb enough to make him available unless they also took Daniel Jones in the trade. So unless they're firing their GM And hiring Gettleman...this is nothing more than a pipe dream.
It's definitely not happening. No chance the Bills would do it. And the fact that we all know they would never do it should not be lost on those who are saying they wouldn't want to do the trade if they are the Giants.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2023, 09:54:28 AMDid you watch the video in the lead post? The whole premise of this theoretical trade is based on Bill's head coach getting fired and the team being torn down.
That is certainly not the sort of "problems" most fans would kill to have.
I see one guy spouting off about how the Bills are thinking of blowing things up--let me know what his source for that is.
And yes, the Bills' problems
are enviable. They are wildly talented. Enough so to legitimately compete for a Superbowl. But their inability to win it all has bred uneasiness. I would easily take a winning organization looking for changes to get it over the hump than the Giants who are trying to scrape themselves into mediocrity after being in the dumpster for a decade.
Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on November 17, 2023, 10:29:01 AMI see one guy spouting off about how the Bills are thinking of blowing things up--let me know what his source for that is.
And yes, the Bills' problems are enviable. They are wildly talented. Enough so to legitimately compete for a Superbowl. But their inability to win it all has bred uneasiness. I would easily take a winning organization looking for changes to get it over the hump than the Giants who are trying to scrape themselves into mediocrity after being in the dumpster for a decade.
If the regular season ended today, the Bills would be on the outside looking in on the playoff teams. They let their DC walk last season, and they just fired their OC Ken Dorsey this week in the middle of the season. These are not the indicators of a team that is still a winning team with a bright future.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2023, 09:41:28 AMHow has having Josh Allen helped the Bills?
On a related topic, it's disturbing that the team the Giants were modeling themselves after is having so many problems.
Maybe, juuuuuuuussssstttt maaaaaaaaayyyyybbbbeeeee...
Coaching matters??? :-?? :-??
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2023, 10:33:48 AMIf the regular season ended today, the Bills would be on the outside looking in on the playoff teams. They let their DC walk last season, and they just fired their OC Ken Dorsey this week in the middle of the season. These are not the indicators of a team that is still a winning team with a bright future.
... But the season doesn't end today and they're
one win back of the current playoff leaders, hardly an insurmountable task (especially when the Steelers are a pretender team). And again, they're top ten in both scoring and defense. Scoring points and preventing points is precisely how you win games. If you want, you can continue to tunnel on the optics of what's going on in Buffalo, but the football product is still amongst the strongest in the league (8th in team DVOA)... which is why during a relatively unlucky year (7-3 Pythagorean expected record this season) they're looking at what's preventing them from capitalizing on their prodigious talent.
Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on November 17, 2023, 10:46:18 AM... But the season doesn't end today and they're one win back of the current playoff leaders, hardly an insurmountable task (especially when the Steelers are a pretender team). And again, they're top ten in both scoring and defense. Scoring points and preventing points is precisely how you win games. If you want, you can continue to tunnel on the optics of what's going on in Buffalo, but the football product is still amongst the strongest in the league (8th in team DVOA)... which is why during a relatively unlucky year (7-3 Pythagorean expected record this season) they're looking at what's preventing them from capitalizing on their prodigious talent.
I can't help but think of Bill Parcel's old, "you are what your record says you are" quote while reading your post. I don't dispute the stats you quoted, but I tend to look more at the 5-5 record. Worse (in terms of the Bills' prospects), they only have two more games against losing teams (Jets and Pats), and the Bills already lost to both of those teams. Their other opponents are the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, and Dolphins.
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2023, 10:51:10 AMI can't help but think of Bill Parcel's old, "you are what your record says you are" quote while reading your post. I don't dispute the stats you quoted, but I tend to look more at the 5-5 record. Worse (in terms of the Bills' prospects), they only have two more games against losing teams (Jets and Pats), and the Bills already lost to both of those teams. Their other opponents are the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, and Dolphins.
Yes, they're going to have to beat good teams. Just like they would in the playoffs. They are not out of contention (not even close). They very might well miss the playoffs and fire more coaches. And even then, I'd still take the Bills' situation of a gifted roster with (potential) coaching issues over the Giants (who have their own questions about coaching, as you've noted elsewhere, in addition to a talent-deficient roster). If you disagree, that's fine. Reasonable minds and whatnot.
It's a bit of stretch, isn't it. But, if the Bills were actually interested in making such a deal, my answer would then be NO! =))
Cheers!
Can you say 1st rounder that became Randy White for Craig Morton?!!
Hell NO!!
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There is a better chance that Ken Dorsey is our OC in 2024 than Josh Allen is our QB.
This would never happen, but you make the trade. What's better than a chance at a star QB in his prime? An actual star QB in his prime.
I get the gold standard of wanting that star QB on a rookie deal. But I'd rather get the sure thing than a potential bust.
The salary cap? You'd get Allen and figure out the rest of the roster afterward.
Allen is having an unlucky year. His turnover worthy plays are well below other QBs with less interceptions. It is likely to revert back to a normal amount. Mahomes has had well more turnover worthy throws than him. Allen is a great QB. And he's the reason the Bills have been in the mix consistently until this season.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on November 17, 2023, 10:02:51 AMWhen you're throwing for 4500 yards and 35-plus TDs, turnovers are easier to stomach. Not to mention his 6-9 rushing TDs he gets every year. Jones has never come close to the positive offensive production a QB like Josh Allen gives you. That's the difference. Turnovers matter hugely, but they are part of the big picture and have to be looked at in that context.
I understand his performance this year is down in the above respect, but I view it as a temporary blip, not some long term deterioration.
In any event, this thread was really more about "would you trade the opportunity to draft Williams or Maye" for Josh Allen. It wasn't meant to be a Josh Allen vs Jones thread. That would be a pretty silly, short thread.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on November 17, 2023, 02:16:25 PMAllen is having an unlucky year. His turnover worthy plays are well below other QBs with less interceptions. It is likely to revert back to a normal amount. Mahomes has had well more turnover worthy throws than him. Allen is a great QB. And he's the reason the Bills have been in the mix consistently until this season.
Josh Allen turnovers per game
2023- 1.4
2022- 1.2
2021- 1.1
2020- 1.0
2019- 0.8
2018- 1.2
So Josh's numbers are up a bit this season, but turning the ball over is part of his game. For most of his career you could count on 1 or more per game
So 16 turnovers but one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. I'd sign up for that.
The Bill's avg pts/game is a little misleading.
In weeks 2, 3 and 4 they scored 37, 38 and 48 respectively (all wins), or about half of their points for the 10 games they have played.
Since then here is what they scored:
20, 14, 25, 24, 24, 22.
They are 2-4 in those games with 13 turnovers. If they stop giving the ball away they are very much a super bowl contender. Until then they are a struggling offense with a great QB.
This is wishful thinking from a NY media person, who is hoping this gets some buzz he can use on his show. The Bills aren't trading Josh Allen. He is a top 5 QB, and when you find one of those you build around him, not get rid of him. Trade him for what? The right to draft another guy, who you have no idea if he can play in NFL yet? Not happening.
What is happening up there in Buffalo is weird. The offensive coordinator is just the scapegoat for some bad luck. You need good luck to win a super bowl in this league, and McDermott has had none. Reid in Philly was the same way. Blowing it all up wouldn't make a ton of sense.
Quote from: SlotCorner on November 17, 2023, 04:37:09 PMThis is wishful thinking from a NY media person, who is hoping this gets some buzz he can use on his show. The Bills aren't trading Josh Allen. He is a top 5 QB, and when you find one of those you build around him, not get rid of him. Trade him for what? The right to draft another guy, who you have no idea if he can play in NFL yet? Not happening.
What is happening up there in Buffalo is weird. The offensive coordinator is just the scapegoat for some bad luck. You need good luck to win a super bowl in this league, and McDermott has had none. Reid in Philly was the same way. Blowing it all up wouldn't make a ton of sense.
Totally agree it's not happening due to it being totally unrealistic. My point in posting it was just to ask the group a hypothetical here. I personally think it's a no-brainer to do the trade, but some here have a different opinion. Hence the discussion. The OP was not meant to suggest that this event will actually happen or is even a realistic possibility, just to be clear.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on November 17, 2023, 05:25:03 PMTotally agree it's not happening due to it being totally unrealistic. My point in posting it was just to ask the group a hypothetical here. I personally think it's a no-brainer to do the trade, but some here have a different opinion. Hence the discussion. The OP was not meant to suggest that this event will actually happen or is even a realistic possibility, just to be clear.
Agreed, but my comment was also about the source of this thing, which is a show I usually like. If they have to talk Giants, making something up out of nothing is fine I guess. Not much else to talk about until we know the draft order.
Quote from: uconnjack8 on November 17, 2023, 04:01:35 PMThey are 2-4 in those games with 13 turnovers. If they stop giving the ball away they are very much a super bowl contender. Until then they are a struggling offense with a great QB.
Who gives the ball away too much.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on November 17, 2023, 05:25:03 PMTotally agree it's not happening due to it being totally unrealistic. My point in posting it was just to ask the group a hypothetical here. I personally think it's a no-brainer to do the trade, but some here have a different opinion. Hence the discussion. The OP was not meant to suggest that this event will actually happen or is even a realistic possibility, just to be clear.
It is only a semi-rational hypothetical if we agree to completely ignore the CAP aspects. IOW, mental masturbation. If it is not realistic, what's the point of discussing it? It's like one of those Big Bang Theory arguments of who would win in a fight between Superman and Captain America.
Quote from: AZGiantFan on November 17, 2023, 08:40:45 PMIt is only a semi-rational hypothetical if we agree to completely ignore the CAP aspects. IOW, mental masturbation. If it is not realistic, what's the point of discussing it?
You tell me - this thread was only started yesterday and you've already posted in it four times.
Feel free to stop discussing it anytime you like.
Quote from: AZGiantFan on November 17, 2023, 08:40:45 PMIt is only a semi-rational hypothetical if we agree to completely ignore the CAP aspects. IOW, mental masturbation. If it is not realistic, what's the point of discussing it? It's like one of those Big Bang Theory arguments of who would win in a fight between Superman and Captain America.
Don't be ridiculous. Superman wins easily.
HUGE PASS NO :boooo:
Quote from: Gmo11 on November 18, 2023, 03:41:55 PMDon't be ridiculous. Superman wins easily.
Escort him to space and drop him off. 🤣