I used the current NFL.com QB rankings to create the list and went 16 QBs deep (since no list is absolute). In light of all the talk about QBs in the next draft, I thought it would be interesting to see how the best were acquired.
Jalen Hurts* 2020 / Round: 2 / Pick: 53
Patrick Mahomes* 2017 / Round: 1 / Pick: 10
Tua Tagovailoa 2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 5 (possible *)
Lamar Jackson* 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 32
Josh Allen 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 7 (possible *)
Dak Prescot* 2016 / Round: 4 / Pick: 135
C.J. Stroud 2023 / Round: 1 / Pick: 2
Trevor Lawrence 2021 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Joe Burrow 2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Jared Goff Thow in during the Stafford trade, originally 2016 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Justin Herbert 2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 6
Sam Howell 2022 / Round: 5 / Pick: 144
Geno Smith Street FA signing originally 2013 / Round: 2 / Pick: 39 (signed into a *)
Baker Mayfield 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Derek Carr Street FA signing originally 2014 / Round: 2 / Pick: 36
Brock Purdy* 2022 / Round: 7 / Pick: 262
* Drafted into a QB-friendly environment
I am surprised any selection methodology would characterize Sam Howell as a "franchise quarterback."
19th in QB rating, 21st in QBR, and a PFF grade in the 60s, which is pretty bad for a starting QB.
I doubt he'll be in the role for very long (beyond this season I mean).
Same thing with Baker Mayfield. He is in his late 20s and is already a journeyman, borderline starter at best who has already been on three teams and has failed everywhere he has played.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on November 20, 2023, 12:42:56 PMI am surprised any selection methodology would characterize Sam Howell as a "franchise quarterback."
19th in QB rating, 21st in QBR, and a PFF grade in the 60s, which is pretty bad for a starting QB.
I doubt he'll be in the role for very long (beyond this season I mean).
Same thing with Baker Mayfield. He is in his late 20s and is already a journeyman, borderline starter at best who has already been on three teams and has failed everywhere he has played.
Jeff,
I really wanted to get the data out there. As I said, I used the most recent NFL.com QB rankings and went 16 deep. I wanted this to be about how QBs were acquired rather than an issue of rankings or who is or isn't a franchise QB (I leave it up to the reader to pick and choose which QBs to consider).
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 20, 2023, 01:16:00 PMJeff,
I really wanted to get the data out there. As I said, I used the most recent NFL.com QB rankings and went 16 deep. I wanted this to be about how QBs were acquired rather than an issue of rankings or who is or isn't a franchise QB (I leave it up to the reader to pick and choose which QBs to consider).
Understood.
So 9 out of 16 were top 10 overall picks, with five of those nine being top two picks. Sounds about right to me. Clearly shows that, while by no means are you getting any sort of guarantee, you're still very much at an advantage if you're picking very high in the first round if you're looking for your next starting QB for the long term.
It was mentioned in another thread as well but a lot of these guys were acquired via trade. I really hope the Giants wind up somewhere in the top 5. A loss this week is basically a requirement for that to happen at this point. If they do, and the Bears end up with 2 of the top 4 picks I imagine they would be willing to trade back. So that might be the only path remaining for the Giants to get a QB in this draft. Trading up a couple spots by giving up one of their 2 second rounders among other stuff.
But if they fall out of the top 5 I don't think the Bears would be interested in going that far back and I don't think the Giants would be willing to offer what it would take to move the Bears or anybody else off that position.
Quote from: Gmo11 on November 20, 2023, 01:44:23 PMIt was mentioned in another thread as well but a lot of these guys were acquired via trade. I really hope the Giants wind up somewhere in the top 5. A loss this week is basically a requirement for that to happen at this point. If they do, and the Bears end up with 2 of the top 4 picks I imagine they would be willing to trade back. So that might be the only path remaining for the Giants to get a QB in this draft. Trading up a couple spots by giving up one of their 2 second rounders among other stuff.
But if they fall out of the top 5 I don't think the Bears would be interested in going that far back and I don't think the Giants would be willing to offer what it would take to move the Bears or anybody else off that position.
What some of these other teams ultimately want to do at QB is in play too. Are we 100% positive, for example, that the Cards want to move on from Murray? I know that's everyone's view, but he has been pretty solid so far since his return plus his contract will be hard to move. Plus they may win some more games as well, so it may be moot.
The big one is do the Bears, definitely, 100% want to move on from Fields? He's still only 24, his passing numbers keep improving each year, and he's capable of rushing for over 1k yards on the ground. I'm certainly not saying he's for sure better than Williams or Maye, but I don't know why it's an automatic lock that they'll definitely want to move on from him.
As far as teams that have a shot, the only team that I'm basically positive will want to draft a QB near the top of the draft, besides us, is the Pats. Everyone else seems like a maybe.
Who are the top guys.
Burrow. Top pick.
Mahomes. 10th pick.
Josh Allen. 7th pick
Hurts. 2nd round
Stroud. 2nd pick
Tua. 5th pick
Herbert 6th pick
Lamar. Trade up to back of first round.
Lawrence. Top Pick.
If you have anyone below this level, you aren't winning crap without a perfect team around them. Hurts and Lamar are complete outliers. I don't think you are getting this quality of player outside of right around the top 5. Teams are more desperate now because more teams need QBs than at any time in recent memory.
Rich: Many thanks for doing this. It must have taken a while. Bob
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 20, 2023, 10:54:11 AMI used the current NFL.com QB rankings to create the list and went 16 QBs deep (since no list is absolute). In light of all the talk about QBs in the next draft, I thought it would be interesting to see how the best were acquired.
Jalen Hurts* 2020 / Round: 2 / Pick: 53
Patrick Mahomes* 2017 / Round: 1 / Pick: 10
Tua Tagovailoa 2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 5 (possible *)
Lamar Jackson* 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 32
Josh Allen 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 7 (possible *)
Dak Prescot* 2016 / Round: 4 / Pick: 135
C.J. Stroud 2023 / Round: 1 / Pick: 2
Trevor Lawrence 2021 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Joe Burrow 2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Jared Goff Thow in during the Stafford trade, originally 2016 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Justin Herbert 2020 / Round: 1 / Pick: 6
Sam Howell 2022 / Round: 5 / Pick: 144
Geno Smith Street FA signing originally 2013 / Round: 2 / Pick: 39 (signed into a *)
Baker Mayfield 2018 / Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Derek Carr Street FA signing originally 2014 / Round: 2 / Pick: 36
Brock Purdy* 2022 / Round: 7 / Pick: 262
* Drafted into a QB-friendly environment
so we dont need the 1st overall pick?
Most of the guys on the big list are just not good enough. If you want to truly contend, you need a top guy.
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 20, 2023, 03:32:42 PMRich: Many thanks for doing this. It must have taken a while. Bob
Bob,
To be perfectly candid, I didn't mind. I have an intense intellectual curiosity. So, it was as much for me as for everyone else.
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on November 20, 2023, 03:23:54 PMWho are the top guys.
Burrow. Top pick.
Mahomes. 10th pick.
Josh Allen. 7th pick
Hurts. 2nd round
Stroud. 2nd pick
Tua. 5th pick
Herbert 6th pick
Lamar. Trade up to back of first round.
Lawrence. Top Pick.
If you have anyone below this level, you aren't winning crap without a perfect team around them. Hurts and Lamar are complete outliers. I don't think you are getting this quality of player outside of right around the top 5. Teams are more desperate now because more teams need QBs than at any time in recent memory.
Dgood: Good post. You imply each of them did/does NOT need a good team in order to win; I disagree with a few.
My favorite disagreement is Hurts, who IMO would be no better than Jones on the Giants.
Now that I got my little "dig" at the Eagles in, IMO only two or three others (one of which is Mahomes, actually "lifts" his squad significantly. KC was already a good team, needing just a QB to really break out, when they drafted him. They were already winning pretty decently (QB Smith) without Mahomes. The jury is IMO still out on Stroud,
That's also true of several others. IMO you're giving a lot more credit to several guys than they deserve.
The other implication of your post is that they are all better than Jones, and I disagree with that too. I think the jury is still out on Tua, Lawrence and certainly Stroud. Two others, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, can also personally lose you a couple of games each year (although so could Brett Favre... and he was still considered a big-time HOF QB). Just trying to be fair in my assessments.
Bob
PS. If either of my assumptions about your implications were wrong, I apologize in advance.
Stroud turned a 3 win team into a playoff contender in his first season. He is in the MVP consideration. Hurts is so much better than Jones it isn't even funny. He started playing when the Eagles were mediocre and has grown into a top tier player. Jones hasn't thrown for more than 2 TDs in any game since 2019. They aren't comparable at all.
If you don't have a top tier QB talent you don't have a chance to consistently contend. I stand by that. And no amount of rationalizing why Daniel Jones sucks and assigning blame to others will change that.
Quote from: B1GBLUE on November 20, 2023, 03:32:48 PMso we dont need the 1st overall pick?
It would be interesting to see what number QB they were. Josh Allen was the 7th pick, but the third QB taken that year. Its safe to say this is something else the Jets screwed up, but I digress.
If we don't have the number one, the ability to take a QB is dependent on who picks in front of us. I doubt Chicago moves on from Fields. Best guess is they take Marvin Harrison and trade down. Arizona is more likely to move on from Murray, and NE should definitely be picking a QB. That leaves us (I think) in third.
Quote from: SlotCorner on November 20, 2023, 04:16:09 PMIt would be interesting to see what number QB they were. Josh Allen was the 7th pick, but the third QB taken that year. Its safe to say this is something else the Jets screwed up, but I digress.
If we don't have the number one, the ability to take a QB is dependent on who picks in front of us. I doubt Chicago moves on from Fields. Best guess is they take Marvin Harrison and trade down. Arizona is more likely to move on from Murray, and NE should definitely be picking a QB. That leaves us (I think) in third.
If the Bears end up with the top pick via the Panthers, they will almost certainly take Caleb Williams. Justin Fields is fine but he's almost ready for a new contract. Have you seen enough from him to make him a $200 million guy? He seems fine, and has talent, and they could probably trade him for something, but I personally haven't seen enough to give him that yet.
Even if you love Fields, Williams is an equivalent talent right now and will come so much cheaper that the decision should be easy to make. They could take Williams and Harrison together or even potentially trade the 2nd first round pick to a QB needy team and collect a ton of pieces to build around Williams. Either way, they gotta take Williams if they get that pick unless Fields puts out Mahomes type numbers consistently the last couple months.
Hold on a sec
There is this too-
Kurt Warner UDFA
Joe Montana 3rd round
Tom Brady 6th round
Tony Romo UDFA
Dan Marino 1st round pick #27
Brock Purdy Mr Irrelevant
I guess there is a sliver of hope for Tommy Devito UDFA. Who would join Warner and Romo as UDFAs
plus Brady and Purdy as afterthought 6th rounders
There are exceptions
Quote from: BluesCruz on November 22, 2023, 01:04:08 AMHold on a sec
There is this too-
Kurt Warner UDFA
Joe Montana 3rd round
Tom Brady 6th round
Tony Romo UDFA
Dan Marino 1st round pick #27
Brock Purdy Mr Irrelevant
I guess there is a sliver of hope for Tommy Devito UDFA. Who would join Warner and Romo as UDFAs
plus Brady and Purdy as afterthought 6th rounders
There are exceptions
Most of your examples are 20-to-40 years old; your only recent example hasn't won anything. Today's game is fundamentally differ than two+ decades ago...
Quote from: kingm56 on November 22, 2023, 06:34:51 AMMost of your examples are 20-to-40 years old; your only recent example hasn't won anything. Today's game is fundamentally differ than two+ decades ago...
Do you think any of these HOF QBs would have trouble today if they were in their prime?
I get it. Some top QBs in todays college game do very well in the NFL. The modern college game prepares them well. Then again some like Zach Wilson are a disaster. There are no guarantees.
I think picking an NFL QB from the college crop is an art as well as a science.
Id like to see a list of #1 QB college picks who were a train wreck- I'm sure its a long one
Salivating over top 5 picks is not going to help us get a QB. The Giants are too talented to lose another 6 games this season.
Hey if that happens, and we have a chance to get a sure thing QB lets do it, but what if he is another Zach Wilson?
We have an unpolished gem in Devito, lets see if he continues at this level or even moves higher. It would not be horrible.
In that senario I could easily see Devito having to take a seat behind Jones in 2024, but likely not for long (injury prone, losing are in his history)
I think we have a gift handed to us in Tommy Devito. Lets see how he does going forward.
Did you ever consider the Giants signed UDFA Devito for a reason. Someone saw something and he is playing at a very high level.
The big question is if Tommy continues his conquests and makes our offense powerful and feared what will Mara say. Could he bring himself to part with Jones? Hopefully he leaves all this up to Schoen and Daboll.....time will tell
Quote from: B1GBLUE on November 20, 2023, 03:32:48 PMso we dont need the 1st overall pick?
In my view it depends on the year, too.
If the first 2-3 picks in the draft are owned by teams which need a Franchise QB, then obv the higher up you are the better it is. It also depends on how good and deep a class on a given position is in a given year.
Quote from: GordonGekko80 on November 22, 2023, 09:32:38 AMIn my view it depends on the year, too.
If the first 2-3 picks in the draft are owned by teams which need a Franchise QB, then obv the higher up you are the better it is. It also depends on how good and deep a class on a given position is in a given year.
Gordon: Great point. I don't think the Panthers, Bears, Cardinals need yet another QB. Does anyone else? Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 22, 2023, 09:48:32 AMGordon: Great point. I don't think the Panthers, Bears, Cardinals need yet another QB. Does anyone else? Bob
I think the Bears going QB. Fields is going to be coming off his rookie deal soon and he's shown flashes, but nothing sustained. And they very well might have the top overall pick. They could get a new QB and MHJ. I think that's a strong start for a pseudo-rebuild. But Ryan Pace has not really impressed with his talent identification (Chase Claypool debacle) so who knows what they do.
Cardinals may have to run with Murray because his deal is not easily dumped. And honestly, he's a good QB. Not top tier, but he can win you games.
Panthers don't have their 1st round pick, as they traded it when they moved up for Bryce Young.
This would be the polar opposite of the data work I do. I try to examine, or better yet, allow others to examine the data, learn, and draw conclusions. If someone wanted to expand on the work I presented, they could expand from one year to multiple years using the same methodology. You can also filter the data as
@Dgoodmantrublu did.
Going back 20 to 40 years with no real systematic criteria doesn't produce anything of value, at least analytically speaking.
Quote from: BluesCruz on November 22, 2023, 01:04:08 AMHold on a sec
There is this too-
Kurt Warner UDFA
Joe Montana 3rd round
Tom Brady 6th round
Tony Romo UDFA
Dan Marino 1st round pick #27
Brock Purdy Mr Irrelevant
I guess there is a sliver of hope for Tommy Devito UDFA. Who would join Warner and Romo as UDFAs
plus Brady and Purdy as afterthought 6th rounders
There are exceptions
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 22, 2023, 10:50:05 AMThis would be the polar opposite of the data work I do. I try to examine, or better yet, allow others to examine the data, learn, and draw conclusions. If someone wanted to expand on the work I presented, they could expand from one year to multiple years using the same methodology. You can also filter the data as @Dgoodmantrublu did.
Going back 20 to 40 years with no real systematic criteria doesn't produce anything of value, at least analytically speaking.
Rich I really appreciate the work you did here. It was a real eyeopener.
Who knew? BUT As a mediocre team we wont be picking #1 anytime soon.
Having said that I dont think the Giants will draft that low in my lifetime (at 76 who knows how long that is- I'm playing with house money now)
My thesis is the Giants need to find Mr Wonderful some other way. They are not bad enough to get a top 5 pick- no tankathon in them. They played Wash like rabid dogs. Washington impressed me. Despite the score it was a real battle and our team was super stoked
The Washington offense is very good. Running game excellent. Receivers excellent. QB struggled a bit but he is dangerous. He was under siege throwing those INTs. On Defense they let two if their best Dline go and still sacked us 9 times.
They held Barkley to zip in the 1st half.
I liked Devito when he 1st came in to replace TT. He has a presence about him, undefinable but its there. His performance Sunday was terrific and his arrow is pointing up to get even better. Of the QBs I noted Devito most reminds me of Montana and Warner. Reminds me not saying he's headed to Canton....just has that field presence.
My worry is the Giants do not see what I'm seeing and a guy like Belicheck swoops in and scoops him up. Then we have a sketchy injury prone starter in Jones, an aging overpaid backup in TT and from where we will draft a question mark rookie QB next year. Not good.
I say give Tommy D a chance, and dont worry about Jones 2024 salary. If they do go this route they better sign Devito to a reasonable contract before its an issue. Or am I wrong- What exactly is Devito's contract situation? Rookie contract? I dont know the rules on UDFA's.
One thing that it seems no one picked up on was the advantage given to teams that draft their QB into QB friendly environments
Quote from: Dgoodmantrublu on November 20, 2023, 03:23:54 PMWho are the top guys.
Burrow. Top pick.
Mahomes. 10th pick.
Josh Allen. 7th pick
Hurts. 2nd round
Stroud. 2nd pick
Tua. 5th pick
Herbert 6th pick
Lamar. Trade up to back of first round.
Lawrence. Top Pick.
If you have anyone below this level, you aren't winning crap without a perfect team around them. Hurts and Lamar are complete outliers. I don't think you are getting this quality of player outside of right around the top 5. Teams are more desperate now because more teams need QBs than at any time in recent memory.
Even though he's been hurt all year Aaron Rodgers would have been on this list. He went 24th overall after an inexplicable draft day drop. Prior to the draft half the mocks had him going first overall. Safe to say 23 teams screwed the pooch on that one.
This team needs a lot of assets. I would trade down in the draft. Pick up a QB in the lower part of round one or early second and possibly pick up a O-lineman or a receiver in the first.
Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on November 22, 2023, 10:48:03 AMI think the Bears going QB. Fields is going to be coming off his rookie deal soon and he's shown flashes, but nothing sustained. And they very well might have the top overall pick. They could get a new QB and MHJ. I think that's a strong start for a pseudo-rebuild. But Ryan Pace has not really impressed with his talent identification (Chase Claypool debacle) so who knows what they do.
Cardinals may have to run with Murray because his deal is not easily dumped. And honestly, he's a good QB. Not top tier, but he can win you games.
Panthers don't have their 1st round pick, as they traded it when they moved up for Bryce Young.
H-Town: Boy, I hope you're right. Bears going QB would IMO be one of the best things that could happen to Schoen.
I'm aware as of today the Bears have the Panther's pick. Bob