If my figuring is right, we are drafting 6th right no w
Here is how the 2024 draft order looks with three regular-season games to play:
Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
New England Patriots: 3-11
Arizona Cardinals: 3-11
Washington Commanders: 4-10
Chicago Bears: 5-9
New York Giants: 5-9
Basically, all these teams could be going QB, with NE, and Washington for sure. Do the Bears give up on Fields and go QB, Does Arizona give up on Murray and go QB? If so there are 4 teams going QB ahead of us so who might be left?
I can see either the Bears or the Cardinals going WR but that still puts us about 4th in the QB derby. Do we stand a chance of getting a franchise QB where we are now?
Quote from: LennG on December 24, 2023, 07:46:47 PMIf my figuring is right, we are drafting 6th right no w
Here is how the 2024 draft order looks with three regular-season games to play:
Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
New England Patriots: 3-11
Arizona Cardinals: 3-11
Washington Commanders: 4-10.
Chicago Bears: 5-9
New York Giants: 5-9
Basically, all these teams could be going QB, with NE, and Washington for sure. Do the Bears give up on Fields and go QB, Does Arizona give up on Murray and go QB? If so there are 4 teams going QB ahead of us so who might be left?
I can see either the Bears or the Cardinals going WR but that still puts us about 4th in the QB derby. Do we stand a chance of getting a franchise QB where we are now?
We are now drafting 5th if we lose tomorrow as the Bears won today .
That doesn't change who needs a QB ahead of us.
Lenn...... I really liked the kid out of Michigan McCarthy. I think you'll be there when we pick also, there's bikes, but I'd rather have McCarthy.
All of them
Quote from: LennG on December 24, 2023, 08:12:22 PMThat doesn't change who needs a QB ahead of us.
The Bears, Cards may not pick a QB. The Commanders will likely fire Rivera, if that's the case they will.
Quote from: Ed Vette on December 25, 2023, 10:00:26 AMThe Bears, Cards may not pick a QB. The Commanders will likely fire Rivera, if that's the case they will.
The Bears will trade out of one spot.
To me the Bears are the big mystery. I see them as probably 60/40 in favor of drafting a QB. But (as my assessed odds suggest) I will be by no means shocked if they don't. The King's ransom they'll get for that top overall pick this year will be utterly massive, and so if they believe they can win with Fields that will be hard to pass up. Not to mention Fields himself will fetch them at least a second rounder in a trade, maybe a second rounder and change. The fact that they have won three of their last four games may be helping the cause of Fields staying. Their last two games are winnable games too.
New England is clearly drafting a QB. I put that at 99%, if not 100. They don't even have a decent QB on the roster let alone a good one. And if any franchise understands the value of the QB position, it's them. I see them as bringing in a new GM and coach and taking one of the big three QBs.
The Cards are an interesting one. They fired the GM and head coach who oversaw the Murray pick and second contract, so the owner may be down on Murray, but they do have that contract to worry about. Murray isn't awful. To this point he has had more success in this league than Fields. Moreover he'll be next to impossible to move with that contract. Maybe they can find someone to take that off their hands, but I tend to doubt it. I think the odds are pretty good they stick with him, partially because the contract is too burdensome to move but also because they might talk themselves into it. Good chance they draft Harrison. I put the odds of them keeping Murray at 70%.
Washington to me isn't quite as high odds as New England of drafting a QB, but they're right up there. Rivera is as good as gone. They have new ownership and will have a new coaching regime and front office. It makes sense to start with a new QB. Howell isn't a franchise QB. They also tanked for draft capital (moving Sweat and Chase). They're in position to trade up if the Bears trade down and don't want to move too far down. Or they could stay put and hope that a QB falls to them at 4, and if not, they're getting Harrison, which isn't so awful. I put their odds of drafting a QB (one way or another) at 85%.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on December 25, 2023, 10:45:58 AMTo me the Bears are the big mystery. I see them as probably 60/40 in favor of drafting a QB. But (as my assessed odds suggest) I will be by no means shocked if they don't. The King's ransom they'll get for that top overall pick this year will be utterly massive, and so if they believe they can win with Fields that will be hard to pass up. Not to mention Fields himself will fetch them at least a second rounder in a trade, maybe a second rounder and change. The fact that they have won three of their last four games may be helping the cause of Fields staying. Their last two games are winnable games too.
New England is clearly drafting a QB. I put that at 99%, if not 100. They don't even have a decent QB on the roster let alone a good one. And if any franchise understands the value of the QB position, it's them. I see them as bringing in a new GM and coach and taking one of the big three QBs.
The Cards are an interesting one. They fired the GM and head coach who oversaw the Murray pick and second contract, so the owner may be down on Murray, but they do have that contract to worry about. Murray isn't awful. To this point he has had more success in this league than Fields. Moreover he'll be next to impossible to move with that contract. Maybe they can find someone to take that off their hands, but I tend to doubt it. I think the odds are pretty good they stick with him, partially because the contract is too burdensome to move but also because they might talk themselves into it. Good chance they draft Harrison. I put the odds of them keeping Murray at 70%.
Washington to me isn't quite as high odds as New England of drafting a QB, but they're right up there. Rivera is as good as gone. They have new ownership and will have a new coaching regime and front office. It makes sense to start with a new QB. Howell isn't a franchise QB. They also tanked for draft capital (moving Sweat and Chase). They're in position to trade up if the Bears trade down and don't want to move too far down. Or they could stay put and hope that a QB falls to them at 4, and if not, they're getting Harrison, which isn't so awful. I put their odds of drafting a QB (one way or another) at 85%.
My gut is maybe trade back a pick or two, get more picks and draft Harrison. I see NE going QB, Washington possibly, and the Giants in the first 5 or 6 taking a QB. Don't see the Chargers or Titans going QB. The Falcons will try to trade up to get one.
The best things the Giants can hope for now are that
1) the Bears keep winning and Fields looks good doing it
2) the Giants lose out
3) The Pats beat the Jets
4) the Cards and Commies agree Caleb Williams is head and shoulders better than the other QBs.
Which if all works out exactly right could lead to the Giants picking 4th the Bears drop down from 1 but only to 2 or 3 to take Harrison and the Giants get one of the big 3 QBs albeit the 3rd option.
Short of all that happening the Giants likely have to be the ones trading up in order to secure a QB and the only team that would consider trading out of a QB spot would be the Bears at 1. So that doesn't seem very likely at this point given how much it would cost.
Is there any team drafting behind the Giants that needs a QB? Just a couple of ifs. Az has a second pick and the Raiders might be based on how O'Connell finishes out.
Quote from: Ed Vette on December 25, 2023, 11:28:21 AMIs there any team drafting behind the Giants that needs a QB? Just a couple of ifs. Az has a second pick and the Raiders might be based on how O'Connell finishes out.
If we lose out , don't we jump ahead of the Bears as they won yesterday and now have 6 wins to our 5 . That would put us at 5th draft position . I doubt we can jump over anyone else . The Commanders play the 49ers this coming weekend so that is a loss.
Let's see now. Which "Franchise" QB do we see having a fair shot at winning the next Super Bowl, and where was he Drafted? I suppose we might start with Josh Allen who went 7th overall, followed by Patrick Mahomes, a 10th pick, and then at 32, Lamar Jackson, the last of the 1st Rounders.
I guess we should then include Jalen Hurts, Rd 2(53), and Dak Prescott, Rd 4(135) and, of course, no doubt, 7th Round (262nd) pick, Brock Purdy.
Hmm! A wink is as good as a nod. Know what I mean? nudge nudge.
In any case, Our Heroes won't be looking QB in Round 1. If they are to admit their mistake, it won't be until 2025.
Cheers!
Quote from: Painter on December 25, 2023, 11:38:29 AMLet's see now. Which "Franchise" QB do we see having a fair shot at winning the next Super Bowl, and where was he Drafted? I suppose we might start with Josh Allen who went 7th overall, followed by Patrick Mahomes, a 10th pick, and then at 32, Lamar Jackson, the last of the 1st Rounders.
I guess we should then include Jalen Hurts, Rd 2(53), and Dak Prescott, Rd 4(135) and, of course, no doubt, 7th Round (262nd) pick, Brock Purdy.
Hmm! A wink is as good as a nod. Know what I mean? nudge nudge.
In any case, Our Heroes won't be looking QB in Round 1. If they are to admit their mistake, it won't be until 2025.
Cheers!
I'm about 80% committed to Bo Nix. If he drops to the second round which I doubt, he should be given consideration. They may very well pass on a QB in the first round.
Quote from: Ed Vette on December 25, 2023, 01:36:24 PMI'm about 80% committed to Bo Nix. If he drops to the second round which I doubt, he should be given consideration. They may very well pass on a QB in the first round.
Bo Nix would be my choice as well. I would be quite satisfied if they used their first pick for him, but I don't expect it to happen, or for him to still be available when the pick again.
Cheers!